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000
FXUS65 KVEF 311455
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
755 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few very isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across the Spring Mountains, Sierra, and Eastern Mohave
county today. Otherwise, A significant warming trend will begin
today and peak over the weekend, with near record heat possible
Friday through Sunday.
&&

.UPDATE...High resolution models continue to look bearish on precip
chances this afternoon with little or no instability and minimal
QPF. Nudged PoPs downward a bit more this afternoon and evening. No
other changes at this time.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday night.

Low pressure which has supported some isolated shower
activity the past few days is now drifting away from the region with
high pressure building in its wake. This will allow a marked warming
trend to commence today and continue well into the weekend. High
temperatures today will climb a few degrees above calendar day
normals and approach of exceed 100 degrees in many lower desert
locations. Temperatures will climb a few degrees more on Thursday,
rising 5 to 8 degrees above normal.  There is an outside chance of
Las Vegas seeing its first 100 degree day of 2016 this afternoon,
but we will more than likely come up a degree or two short. More
confident on the first triple digit day occurring Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.

Strong high pressure remains firmly in place Friday and
Saturday leading to hot and dry conditions. Latest model guidance
continues to indicate record or near record high temperatures both
days in many locations and the excessive heat watch still looks
reasonable. Models also continue to move an upper trough/low onshore
into California by Sunday. However, they are not really showing much
moisture even at high levels and guidance does not drop temps all
that much. Confidence in the max temperature forecast Sunday is not
very high at this time but we may need to look at extending the
excessive heat watch, or warning when/if it comes to that, through
Sunday. Certainly by Monday temperatures will drop as the trough
moves into Nevada. The models are not particularly bullish with
precipitation development with this trough so thunderstorm chances
were still limited to just the Sierra Monday.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Generally light winds favoring north or
northeast directions can be expected most of the day. Strongest
winds look to occur in the 15-20z period. Lighter winds thereafter
shifting more easterly. Hot temperatures expected this afternoon
with peak afternoon temperatures nearing 100 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Fair weather expected for most areas with warm
temperatures and abundant sunshine. Desert valley sites such as
KDAG, KEED, KIFP, and Las Vegas airports will see temperatures
climbing near or above 100 degrees in the afternoon. A stray shower
or two will be possible in the Sierra and Spring Mountains. Light
winds expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Morgan
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Outler
LONG TERM...Harrison

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter



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000
FXUS65 KREV 300957
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
257 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms will be confined to the Sierra crest south
of Lake Tahoe today. Otherwise, a significant warming trend is on
track this week with high temperatures reaching 80 degrees in the
Sierra and into the 90s across the lower valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Very few changes were made as confidence remains high in a strong
ridge building into the region by midweek. This will not only
suppress thunderstorms but it will also lead to unseasonably hot
daytime temperatures with both MOS guidance and local temperature
study showing highs pushing well into the 90s for lower valleys by
Wednesday. We have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms
along the Sierra crest this afternoon. However, any storms that
develop will have a tendency to drift west of the crest due to
northeast flow in the storm bearing layer. Models are showing some
convection Tue-Wed underneath ridge although 500mb temps warmer
than -10C will limit potential with some cumulus buildups more
likely. Hohmann

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

Ridge continues to strengthen through the last part of the week
and into the weekend. An area of low pressure will move into the
Central CA coast on Saturday, helping to pump up the ridge and
temperatures aloft even more for Saturday. Forecaster confidence
is high regarding a significant warming trend and well above
normal temperatures in the extended. High temperatures will climb
into the mid 90s across western NV and northeast CA, with upper
70s and low 80s in the Sierra Valleys.

Models have trended drier air into the region on Thursday and
Friday, lowering the chance of showers and thunderstorms, along
with a stronger capping inversion at 500mb. We removed the mention
of convection for Friday based off this. By the weekend however,
we should start to see increasing chances for convection as the
low pressure moving into the CA coast with increased moisture and
instability with cooler temperatures aloft. These storms may also
end up being stronger that what we`ve seen lately due to more
shear and instability. Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions remain through today with light winds and dry
conditions for most terminals. A few isolated showers are possible
at KMMH this afternoon. Overall chances for showers or storms at
KMMH generally less than 15%. Diminishing chances for
thunderstorms after today with a strong warming trend through the
rest of the week. Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300926 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
230 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather is expected for most areas on this Memorial
Day holiday with just a few isolated thunderstorms possible across
the the Sierra, Southern Nevada north of Las Vegas, and northern
Mohave county. A drying and warming trend will commence tuesday with
widespread triple digit heat building into the deserts midweek
onward. Friday and Saturday look especially hot, creeping to within
a few degrees of record territory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Weak upper low currently spinning over the southern Mojave desert
will continue to provide modest lift across the region which will
result in another afternoon of some isolated thunderstorms across
parts of Southern Nevada, the Sierra, and Northern Mojave county.
High resolution models suggest deformation zone enhancement focusing
an area of activity across Lincoln county southwestward towards the
Spring Mountains and southern Nye County by late in the afternoon.
As such, we can expect a few isolated to scattered high based
showers and thunderstorms in this area later today. Activity looks
as though it will remain north and west of the Las Vegas metro.
Elsewhere, dry and seasonable weather can be expected with light
winds.

Tomorrow a warning trend will commence with temperatures beginning to
climb above normal. Further warning is in store Wednesday with many
desert locations creeping near or into triple digit territory.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

High pressure strengthens over the region Thursday and Friday with
dry conditions and temperatures warming to the highest levels of the
year so far. High temperatures by Friday will be well over 100
degrees across the Mojave Desert with some areas flirting with
records. The record high Friday for Las Vegas is 107 and we are
currently forecasting 106. After the relatively cool May,
temperatures at these levels could result in health/safety issues
for those who are heat sensitive and those without effective
cooling. Not much change expected for Saturday although we will
start to see an upper trough/low approaching the California coast.
We may start to see an increase in mainly high level cloud cover
which could limit heating slightly but for now don`t count on it.
There could be just enough of a moisture increase and instability
over the Sierra for a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the
afternoon. The models are in decent agreement moving this trough
inland into California Sunday with heights falling across the area.
This combined with increased cloud cover will lead to 2-4 degrees of
cooling and also a little better chance of showers/thunderstorms
over the Sierra.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds expected today favoring
easterly directions in the afternoon hours. Wind speeds through the
day look to remain at or below 9 knots. Otherwise, mostly sunny
skies expected with few-sct clouds above 10k feet developing in the
late afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Fair weather with light winds are expected for most
areas today. A few high based showers and thunderstorms may develop
this afternoon over the Sierra, Southern Great Basin, and northern
Mohave county but coverage will be only scattered to isolated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Outler
Long Term...Harrison

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




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