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000
FXUS65 KVEF 211108
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 211108
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 211108
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 211108
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 211003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 211003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KLKN 210911
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN RETURNING
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. AFTER A BIT OF COOLING
TODAY...WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE MAIN
STORY. AT PRESENT IT IS CENTERED IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A WARM
FRONT LIKE FEATURE EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM IT AND IS FOCUSING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...SPREADING
NORTHWARD SLOWLY. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE THE AIR MASS IS MORE
UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
DAY THE WARM FRONT-LIKE FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
IDAHO BORDER SPREADING RAIN WITH IT THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE CWA WILL
BE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF IT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS LOOK
DECENT...AND WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND A BIT OF SHEAR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. ALSO SOME FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE BUT SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO THIS EVENING FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE BOTH ON THE BROAD SCALE AND MESOSCALE AND MOISTURE
LEVELS SHOULD FALL OFF...SO SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEVADA ON MONDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE/FORCING/CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...SO HAVE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN
THAT AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD DRY OUT. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY WITH A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING EVER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH NO FORCING...SO
TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THEY SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND BOUNCE BACK ABOVE TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MAJOR MODELS AGREE
NICELY THURSDAY EVENING THEN DIFFERENCES APPEAR. BIG STORY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AS THIS TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DIGS AND CLOSES OFF THE SOCAL
COAST...IT PICKS UP FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN PAC SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DRIVING UP PW`S INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS ENOUGH RH
AND DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OR IN THE EASTERN 100 MILES OR SO OF THE STATE. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WILL FEEL MORE LIKE FALL NEXT WEEKEND FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.


&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
MONDAY. PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE EAST AFTER THAT...BUT WILL STILL
AFFECT KEKO AND KELY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. GENERALLY...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...BUT NOW AND THEN MAY DROP TO
BLO 5SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...EVEN
WITHOUT THUNDER...SOME REDUCING VISIBILITY IN BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WET
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES. RCM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH NICE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY A POTENT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS HOUR WITH A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT...WITH DECENT FGEN IN THIS AREA. THIS FGEN BAND
SHOULD MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE
CONVECTIVE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF IT ADVECTING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY
COMMON...ESPECIALLY WITH PW`S LOCALLY OVER 1 INCH...BUT STORM
MOTION SHOULD BE DECENT. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING CAN CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES SO HAVE LEFT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNCHANGED. ALREADY AT THIS
HOUR MESONET STATIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA HAVE RECORDED NEARLY AN
INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER AN
INCH...SO ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ONLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IN THESE AREAS.
THE FLOOD THREAT WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MOISTURE LEVELS DROP ON WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93/93







000
FXUS65 KLKN 210911
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN RETURNING
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. AFTER A BIT OF COOLING
TODAY...WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE MAIN
STORY. AT PRESENT IT IS CENTERED IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A WARM
FRONT LIKE FEATURE EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM IT AND IS FOCUSING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...SPREADING
NORTHWARD SLOWLY. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE THE AIR MASS IS MORE
UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
DAY THE WARM FRONT-LIKE FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
IDAHO BORDER SPREADING RAIN WITH IT THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE CWA WILL
BE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF IT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS LOOK
DECENT...AND WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND A BIT OF SHEAR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. ALSO SOME FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE BUT SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO THIS EVENING FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE BOTH ON THE BROAD SCALE AND MESOSCALE AND MOISTURE
LEVELS SHOULD FALL OFF...SO SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEVADA ON MONDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE/FORCING/CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...SO HAVE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN
THAT AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD DRY OUT. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY WITH A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING EVER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH NO FORCING...SO
TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THEY SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND BOUNCE BACK ABOVE TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MAJOR MODELS AGREE
NICELY THURSDAY EVENING THEN DIFFERENCES APPEAR. BIG STORY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AS THIS TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DIGS AND CLOSES OFF THE SOCAL
COAST...IT PICKS UP FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN PAC SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DRIVING UP PW`S INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS ENOUGH RH
AND DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OR IN THE EASTERN 100 MILES OR SO OF THE STATE. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WILL FEEL MORE LIKE FALL NEXT WEEKEND FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.


&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
MONDAY. PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE EAST AFTER THAT...BUT WILL STILL
AFFECT KEKO AND KELY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. GENERALLY...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...BUT NOW AND THEN MAY DROP TO
BLO 5SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...EVEN
WITHOUT THUNDER...SOME REDUCING VISIBILITY IN BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WET
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES. RCM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH NICE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY A POTENT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS HOUR WITH A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT...WITH DECENT FGEN IN THIS AREA. THIS FGEN BAND
SHOULD MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE
CONVECTIVE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF IT ADVECTING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY
COMMON...ESPECIALLY WITH PW`S LOCALLY OVER 1 INCH...BUT STORM
MOTION SHOULD BE DECENT. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING CAN CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES SO HAVE LEFT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNCHANGED. ALREADY AT THIS
HOUR MESONET STATIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA HAVE RECORDED NEARLY AN
INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER AN
INCH...SO ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ONLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IN THESE AREAS.
THE FLOOD THREAT WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MOISTURE LEVELS DROP ON WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93/93






000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KREV 210239
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
739 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS MAINLY CLUSTERED IN TWO AREAS. THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE CREST AND TO THE WEST IS MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...ITS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NEVADA HAS BEEN MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET STREAK IN THAT REGION. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS TAKE
THIS JET STREAK A BIT MORE WNW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER FORCING ALOFT OVER WRN
NEVADA. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD BOOST THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND
SRN CWA. SO...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE FORCING IS
MINIMAL...BUT LEFT THE HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK AND DEFORMATION AXIS
PRODUCES A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SMOKE FORM THE KING FIRE POURED INTO THE TAHOE BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT DECREASED FROM THE
EAST AND HAVE STARTING TO BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE BASIN. THESE
WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
WRN NV AS WELL...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHETHER THE
SMOKE WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF CARSON CITY AS STRONG AS
IT WAS IN TAHOE EARLIER. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE SMOKE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN NEVADA FROM CARSON CITY NORTHWARD.
20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 210239
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
739 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS MAINLY CLUSTERED IN TWO AREAS. THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE CREST AND TO THE WEST IS MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...ITS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NEVADA HAS BEEN MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET STREAK IN THAT REGION. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS TAKE
THIS JET STREAK A BIT MORE WNW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER FORCING ALOFT OVER WRN
NEVADA. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD BOOST THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND
SRN CWA. SO...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE FORCING IS
MINIMAL...BUT LEFT THE HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK AND DEFORMATION AXIS
PRODUCES A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SMOKE FORM THE KING FIRE POURED INTO THE TAHOE BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT DECREASED FROM THE
EAST AND HAVE STARTING TO BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE BASIN. THESE
WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
WRN NV AS WELL...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHETHER THE
SMOKE WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF CARSON CITY AS STRONG AS
IT WAS IN TAHOE EARLIER. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE SMOKE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN NEVADA FROM CARSON CITY NORTHWARD.
20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 202225
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 202225
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 202145
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO AROUND 6 KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 202145
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO AROUND 6 KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KLKN 202030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
130 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA THIS EVENING...TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER ELKO COUNTY. THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NEVADA LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

INTERESTING, AND RARE, SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR NEVADA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, NEAR
LOS ANGELES THIS AFTERNOON, IS POISED TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LIFT/DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THIS LOW, AND THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IT WILL BE
INGESTING FROM ARIZONA, GIVES HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AS
WELL, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. STILL, BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY REAL THREAT, WITH SOME OF IT
OCCURRING WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH IT
BEING A WEEKEND, AND MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN PROGRESS, PARTNERS
AND CUSTOMERS ARE URGED TO BE AWARE OF THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS
NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGES. GAVE SOME THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING HUMBOLDT COUNTY, BUT FELT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL JUST TO THE SE OF WINNEMUCCA, WITH LESSER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM, WITH THE THREAT
EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD QPF OF
0.25-0.50 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES DISCUSSION FROM
NESDIS IS EXCELLENT, AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH THEM, AGREE THIS
PATTERN IS ONE THAT RESEARCH HAS SHOWN TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE GREAT BASIN. LIFT WILL BE STRONG, AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD PW FOR LATE SEPTEMBER, THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS SUBSTANTIAL. STAY TUNED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR
FLOOD ADVISORIES, STATEMENTS, AND WARNINGS.

VERY MILD TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM NORTH. MANY
VALLEYS WILL FAIL TO FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES, SMASHING WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR SEPTEMBER 21.

SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER DIRECTLY OVER NEVADA, PRODUCING A
CLOUDY COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK,
FOR SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS, SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS, AND CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
EJECTS RAPIDLY OUT OF NEVADA, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
MODELS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MOST LOCALES, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO UTAH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THURSDAY DGEX...GFS AND
GEM BRING A DECENT TROF INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE THE EC HOLDS
THE TROF ALONG THE WEST LONGER. STILL...ALL MODELS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A WINDY DAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
THINK PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
CWA. THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS THURSDAY. HAVE BEST CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
AS MODELS...EXCEPTION THE EC...HAVE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN NV AND
COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NV. AT THIS TIME...WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP AROUND 6500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON NEXT SATURDAY WITH
SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7000 FEET. BY THIS TIME...EC IS JUST
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH. ONE PROBLEM NOTED IS GFS IS
DIGGING THE TROF ON FRIDAY WHICH ACTUALLY MAY SLOW THE SYSTEM UP
CLOSER TO THE EC SOLUTION. JH

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY, WITH
SEVERE CONVECTION AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLOODING MOST
LIKELY NEAR ANY BURN SCARS. LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH INSTABILITY FUELING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LAL OF AT LEAST 4,
WITH 5 POSSIBLE FOR SOME FWZ. INCREASING PW WILL KEEP STORMS WET,
WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS SMALL AND LIMITED.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY.

WINDY DRY WEATHER, WITH STRONG SW WINDS, IS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WIND/RH ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF STRONG APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/87/87/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 202030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
130 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA THIS EVENING...TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER ELKO COUNTY. THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NEVADA LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

INTERESTING, AND RARE, SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR NEVADA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, NEAR
LOS ANGELES THIS AFTERNOON, IS POISED TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LIFT/DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THIS LOW, AND THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IT WILL BE
INGESTING FROM ARIZONA, GIVES HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AS
WELL, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. STILL, BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY REAL THREAT, WITH SOME OF IT
OCCURRING WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH IT
BEING A WEEKEND, AND MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN PROGRESS, PARTNERS
AND CUSTOMERS ARE URGED TO BE AWARE OF THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS
NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGES. GAVE SOME THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING HUMBOLDT COUNTY, BUT FELT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL JUST TO THE SE OF WINNEMUCCA, WITH LESSER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM, WITH THE THREAT
EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD QPF OF
0.25-0.50 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES DISCUSSION FROM
NESDIS IS EXCELLENT, AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH THEM, AGREE THIS
PATTERN IS ONE THAT RESEARCH HAS SHOWN TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE GREAT BASIN. LIFT WILL BE STRONG, AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD PW FOR LATE SEPTEMBER, THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS SUBSTANTIAL. STAY TUNED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR
FLOOD ADVISORIES, STATEMENTS, AND WARNINGS.

VERY MILD TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM NORTH. MANY
VALLEYS WILL FAIL TO FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES, SMASHING WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR SEPTEMBER 21.

SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER DIRECTLY OVER NEVADA, PRODUCING A
CLOUDY COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK,
FOR SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS, SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS, AND CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
EJECTS RAPIDLY OUT OF NEVADA, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
MODELS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MOST LOCALES, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO UTAH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THURSDAY DGEX...GFS AND
GEM BRING A DECENT TROF INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE THE EC HOLDS
THE TROF ALONG THE WEST LONGER. STILL...ALL MODELS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A WINDY DAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
THINK PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
CWA. THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS THURSDAY. HAVE BEST CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
AS MODELS...EXCEPTION THE EC...HAVE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN NV AND
COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NV. AT THIS TIME...WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP AROUND 6500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON NEXT SATURDAY WITH
SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7000 FEET. BY THIS TIME...EC IS JUST
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH. ONE PROBLEM NOTED IS GFS IS
DIGGING THE TROF ON FRIDAY WHICH ACTUALLY MAY SLOW THE SYSTEM UP
CLOSER TO THE EC SOLUTION. JH

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY, WITH
SEVERE CONVECTION AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLOODING MOST
LIKELY NEAR ANY BURN SCARS. LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH INSTABILITY FUELING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LAL OF AT LEAST 4,
WITH 5 POSSIBLE FOR SOME FWZ. INCREASING PW WILL KEEP STORMS WET,
WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS SMALL AND LIMITED.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY.

WINDY DRY WEATHER, WITH STRONG SW WINDS, IS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WIND/RH ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF STRONG APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/87/87/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 201630
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
930 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA TODAY...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
ON MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS
AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECAST THROUGH 5 PM TO MATCH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WIDESPREAD HEALTHY CONVECTION ALREADY SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NYE COUNTY, PER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LOW. INCREASED POP, SKY, QPF GRIDS SOUTH AND WEST OF ELKO, BASED
ON 12Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE. ALSO INCLUDED WIND/HAIL WORDING IN THE
GRIDS, PER SPC 5% WIND/HAIL OUTLOOK. NAM STRONGLY SUGGESTS HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT, AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WARRANTED AND GOOD TO GO. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 309 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SILVER
STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMOKEY HAZE LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA LAST EVENING FROM EARLIER SMOKE PLUMES WHICH MOVED
OVER THE STATE FROM THE KING FIRE IN CALIFORNIA. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS MEAN THAT SMOKE IS PROBABLY GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN MANY AREAS...SO WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY DENSE...DECIDED TO KEEP
AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE MAY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMOROW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND RAIN MAY
CLEANSE THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND WILL NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ENDING UP OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THIS TIME
MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR IT TO TAP AND
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AS OF THIS
WRITING. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT...INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS IN THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW). PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO ISOLATED
SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN
AGAIN PERHAPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE WILL GATHER OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY AND SPREAD NORTH WITH THE LOW
EARLY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY AT TIMES BE MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS...BUT
EVEN AT OUR INSOLATION MINIMUM TIME PERIODS THERE IS NOTABLE
INSTABILITY PROGGED JUST DUE TO THE LOW ITSELF AND ITS COLD AIR
ALOFT...SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.

LOW WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING MOISTURE
LEVELS...INSTABILITY AND FORCING. KEPT POPS VERY LOW MONDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER NORTHEAST...AND HAVE NOTHING
MONDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD. MILD LOWS TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DOMINATE
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER DAY SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. SOME
REBOUND EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW...SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 80. RCM

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SHORT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FIRST THING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY
GIVES WAY TO PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH
BRINGS IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE EURO ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT IT`S PRETTY SPORADIC MOISTURE AND THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY
UP FOR GRABS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. MAJOR MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW BUT NOT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW SO THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE LONGER LONG RANGE. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST EXCEPT TO MAKE SOME RATHER SMALL CHANGES IN THE DAY 7 AND
OUT RANGE DEWPOINTS. WINDS DO PICK UP ON THURSDAY AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4
MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO SMOKE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AT KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANY LIGHTNING STARTS
SHOULD STAY VERY SMALL. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE STATE EXPECTED TO
BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH IT. PW`S EXCEEDING 1 INCH
IN PLACES COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AT TIMES AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING/STATIONARY CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH UPPER LOW...AND THE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER THIS
SUMMER...MAKE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH A NECESSITY AT THIS TIME. WHILE
ITS POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY FORM OF RAINFALL IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE...FEEL ITS BETTER TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS AND PUT THE WATCH
OUT. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE...EVEN A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH
FORMS IN A NARROW BAND COULD PRESENT FLOODING ISSUES IF IT LINGERS
LONG ENOUGH. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 201630
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
930 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA TODAY...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
ON MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS
AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECAST THROUGH 5 PM TO MATCH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WIDESPREAD HEALTHY CONVECTION ALREADY SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NYE COUNTY, PER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LOW. INCREASED POP, SKY, QPF GRIDS SOUTH AND WEST OF ELKO, BASED
ON 12Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE. ALSO INCLUDED WIND/HAIL WORDING IN THE
GRIDS, PER SPC 5% WIND/HAIL OUTLOOK. NAM STRONGLY SUGGESTS HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT, AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WARRANTED AND GOOD TO GO. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 309 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SILVER
STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMOKEY HAZE LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA LAST EVENING FROM EARLIER SMOKE PLUMES WHICH MOVED
OVER THE STATE FROM THE KING FIRE IN CALIFORNIA. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS MEAN THAT SMOKE IS PROBABLY GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN MANY AREAS...SO WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY DENSE...DECIDED TO KEEP
AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE MAY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMOROW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND RAIN MAY
CLEANSE THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND WILL NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ENDING UP OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THIS TIME
MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR IT TO TAP AND
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AS OF THIS
WRITING. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT...INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS IN THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW). PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO ISOLATED
SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN
AGAIN PERHAPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE WILL GATHER OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY AND SPREAD NORTH WITH THE LOW
EARLY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY AT TIMES BE MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS...BUT
EVEN AT OUR INSOLATION MINIMUM TIME PERIODS THERE IS NOTABLE
INSTABILITY PROGGED JUST DUE TO THE LOW ITSELF AND ITS COLD AIR
ALOFT...SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.

LOW WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING MOISTURE
LEVELS...INSTABILITY AND FORCING. KEPT POPS VERY LOW MONDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER NORTHEAST...AND HAVE NOTHING
MONDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD. MILD LOWS TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DOMINATE
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER DAY SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. SOME
REBOUND EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW...SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 80. RCM

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SHORT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FIRST THING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY
GIVES WAY TO PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH
BRINGS IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE EURO ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT IT`S PRETTY SPORADIC MOISTURE AND THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY
UP FOR GRABS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. MAJOR MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW BUT NOT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW SO THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE LONGER LONG RANGE. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST EXCEPT TO MAKE SOME RATHER SMALL CHANGES IN THE DAY 7 AND
OUT RANGE DEWPOINTS. WINDS DO PICK UP ON THURSDAY AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4
MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO SMOKE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AT KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANY LIGHTNING STARTS
SHOULD STAY VERY SMALL. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE STATE EXPECTED TO
BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH IT. PW`S EXCEEDING 1 INCH
IN PLACES COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AT TIMES AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING/STATIONARY CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH UPPER LOW...AND THE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER THIS
SUMMER...MAKE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH A NECESSITY AT THIS TIME. WHILE
ITS POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY FORM OF RAINFALL IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE...FEEL ITS BETTER TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS AND PUT THE WATCH
OUT. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE...EVEN A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH
FORMS IN A NARROW BAND COULD PRESENT FLOODING ISSUES IF IT LINGERS
LONG ENOUGH. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS65 KVEF 201616
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
916 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. LINCOLN AND NYE
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH OR
SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. NOT
ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THESE STORM
SPEEDS. STILL NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING HERE AND THERE. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT
OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA. THIS WAS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CLOSED CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING TO PULL
MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
QUITE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
1.25-1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTERACT
WITH THE BROAD UPWARD FORCING OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPICTED ACROSS CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND
ZONES FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD BE OVER 15-20 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED COUNTIES. AS THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...DETAILS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST MODEL
YOU CHOOSE. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE PAC NW TROUGHING
INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN SOME MANNER IN BETWEEN, WITH MANY KEEPING A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DIDN`T
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT CONTINUED TO
TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND
5-8 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS
BASES WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KREV 201503 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
803 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE PULLED
IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
INTO RENO AND UP TO PYRAMID LAKE, AS WELL AS INCREASING COVERAGE
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
95 IN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SOLID RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOKING GOOD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT BASIN. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 201503 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
803 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE PULLED
IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
INTO RENO AND UP TO PYRAMID LAKE, AS WELL AS INCREASING COVERAGE
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
95 IN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SOLID RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOKING GOOD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT BASIN. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 201041
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA. THIS WAS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CLOSED CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING TO PULL
MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
QUITE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
1.25-1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTERACT
WITH THE BROAD UPWARD FORCING OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPICTED ACROSS CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND
ZONES FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD BE OVER 15-20 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED COUNTIES. AS THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...DETAILS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST MODEL
YOU CHOOSE. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE PAC NW TROUGHING
INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN SOME MANNER IN BETWEEN, WITH MANY KEEPING A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DIDN`T
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT CONTINUED TO
TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND
5-8 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS
BASES WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 201041
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA. THIS WAS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CLOSED CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING TO PULL
MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
QUITE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
1.25-1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTERACT
WITH THE BROAD UPWARD FORCING OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPICTED ACROSS CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND
ZONES FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD BE OVER 15-20 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED COUNTIES. AS THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...DETAILS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST MODEL
YOU CHOOSE. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE PAC NW TROUGHING
INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN SOME MANNER IN BETWEEN, WITH MANY KEEPING A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DIDN`T
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT CONTINUED TO
TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND
5-8 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS
BASES WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KLKN 201009
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
309 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SILVER
STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMOKEY HAZE LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA LAST EVENING FROM EARLIER SMOKE PLUMES WHICH MOVED
OVER THE STATE FROM THE KING FIRE IN CALIFORNIA. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS MEAN THAT SMOKE IS PROBABLY GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN MANY AREAS...SO WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY DENSE...DECIDED TO KEEP
AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE MAY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMOROW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND RAIN MAY
CLEANSE THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND WILL NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ENDING UP OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THIS TIME
MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR IT TO TAP AND
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AS OF THIS
WRITING. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT...INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS IN THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW). PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO ISOLATED
SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN
AGAIN PERHAPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE WILL GATHER OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY AND SPREAD NORTH WITH THE LOW
EARLY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY AT TIMES BE MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS...BUT
EVEN AT OUR INSOLATION MINIMUM TIME PERIODS THERE IS NOTABLE
INSTABILITY PROGGED JUST DUE TO THE LOW ITSELF AND ITS COLD AIR
ALOFT...SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.

LOW WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING MOISTURE
LEVELS...INSTABILITY AND FORCING. KEPT POPS VERY LOW MONDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER NORTHEAST...AND HAVE NOTHING
MONDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD. MILD LOWS TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DOMINATE
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER DAY SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. SOME
REBOUND EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW...SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 80. RCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SHORT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FIRST THING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY
GIVES WAY TO PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH
BRINGS IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE EURO ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT IT`S PRETTY SPORADIC MOISTURE AND THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY
UP FOR GRABS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. MAJOR MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW BUT NOT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW SO THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE LONGER LONG RANGE. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST EXCEPT TO MAKE SOME RATHER SMALL CHANGES IN THE DAY 7 AND
OUT RANGE DEWPOINTS. WINDS DO PICK UP ON THURSDAY AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4
MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO SMOKE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AT KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANY LIGHTNING STARTS
SHOULD STAY VERY SMALL. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE STATE EXPECTED TO
BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH IT. PW`S EXCEEDING 1 INCH
IN PLACES COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AT TIMES AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING/STATIONARY CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH UPPER LOW...AND THE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER THIS
SUMMER...MAKE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH A NECESSITY AT THIS TIME. WHILE
ITS POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY FORM OF RAINFALL IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE...FEEL ITS BETTER TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS AND PUT THE WATCH
OUT. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE...EVEN A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH
FORMS IN A NARROW BAND COULD PRESENT FLOODING ISSUES IF IT LINGERS
LONG ENOUGH. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93





000
FXUS65 KLKN 201009
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
309 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SILVER
STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMOKEY HAZE LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA LAST EVENING FROM EARLIER SMOKE PLUMES WHICH MOVED
OVER THE STATE FROM THE KING FIRE IN CALIFORNIA. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS MEAN THAT SMOKE IS PROBABLY GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN MANY AREAS...SO WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY DENSE...DECIDED TO KEEP
AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE MAY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMOROW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND RAIN MAY
CLEANSE THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND WILL NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ENDING UP OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THIS TIME
MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR IT TO TAP AND
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AS OF THIS
WRITING. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT...INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS IN THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW). PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO ISOLATED
SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN
AGAIN PERHAPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE WILL GATHER OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY AND SPREAD NORTH WITH THE LOW
EARLY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY AT TIMES BE MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS...BUT
EVEN AT OUR INSOLATION MINIMUM TIME PERIODS THERE IS NOTABLE
INSTABILITY PROGGED JUST DUE TO THE LOW ITSELF AND ITS COLD AIR
ALOFT...SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.

LOW WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING MOISTURE
LEVELS...INSTABILITY AND FORCING. KEPT POPS VERY LOW MONDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER NORTHEAST...AND HAVE NOTHING
MONDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD. MILD LOWS TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DOMINATE
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER DAY SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. SOME
REBOUND EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW...SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 80. RCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SHORT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FIRST THING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY
GIVES WAY TO PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH
BRINGS IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE EURO ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT IT`S PRETTY SPORADIC MOISTURE AND THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY
UP FOR GRABS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. MAJOR MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW BUT NOT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW SO THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE LONGER LONG RANGE. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST EXCEPT TO MAKE SOME RATHER SMALL CHANGES IN THE DAY 7 AND
OUT RANGE DEWPOINTS. WINDS DO PICK UP ON THURSDAY AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4
MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO SMOKE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AT KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANY LIGHTNING STARTS
SHOULD STAY VERY SMALL. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE STATE EXPECTED TO
BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH IT. PW`S EXCEEDING 1 INCH
IN PLACES COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AT TIMES AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING/STATIONARY CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH UPPER LOW...AND THE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER THIS
SUMMER...MAKE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH A NECESSITY AT THIS TIME. WHILE
ITS POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY FORM OF RAINFALL IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE...FEEL ITS BETTER TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS AND PUT THE WATCH
OUT. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE...EVEN A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH
FORMS IN A NARROW BAND COULD PRESENT FLOODING ISSUES IF IT LINGERS
LONG ENOUGH. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93




000
FXUS65 KREV 200953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 200953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 200953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 200953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KVEF 200310
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A COUPLE LINGERING MINUTE THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING IN
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUDS WERE INCREASED THERE AS
WELL...BUT REDUCED EVERYWHERE ELSE. I ALSO REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FORECAST IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO
MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

.UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 200310
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A COUPLE LINGERING MINUTE THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING IN
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUDS WERE INCREASED THERE AS
WELL...BUT REDUCED EVERYWHERE ELSE. I ALSO REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FORECAST IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO
MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

.UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KREV 200252
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
752 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION COULD NEVER GET BEYOND THE MODERATE CU STAGE TODAY AS
INSTABILITY WAS LACKING. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FOR THE AREA. KEPT THE MENTION OF
HAZE IN MANY PLACES AS EASTERLY GRADIENT IS STILL NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET ALL OF THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE FROM THR
KING FIRE OUT OF THE AREA.

ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SATURDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SE AND DRAWS A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE
UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING SOME COOLING ALOFT AND AID IN PRODUCING INSTABILITY. SO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FOR
SATURDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS EAST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA. FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO
THE EAST TODAY, HELPING TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST. AIR QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN BETTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP A MENTION OF HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS WON`T BE ABLE TO FULLY SCOUR OUT
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK WEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN WHICH COULD PUSH SOME SMOKE
INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE DID SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, ALTHOUGH UNDER EAST FLOW ANY STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND WESTWARD.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE EVEN MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE`VE EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SIERRA ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HOON

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH MODELS IN
DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AND THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY
BEHIND THE WEEKEND`S EXITING LOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN THE THE WEST COAST.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH 700 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40-50 MPH, THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SMOKE FROM THE
KING FIRE BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REACHING THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THEY DO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z EC WAS
LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT SPLIT THE TROUGH, WHILE THE 12Z EC IS MUCH
FASTER TO SHIFT THE LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PAST TWO RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CLOSING IT OFF OVER UTAH...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH TOOK IT THOUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DJ

AVIATION...

AREAS OF HAZE ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REMNANT SMOKE FROM THE KIND FIRE. THIS MAY
BRING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY BUT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL SMOKE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE ONE CAVEAT IS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BRING THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN,
IMPACTING KTRK AND KTVL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
MAINLY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 200252
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
752 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION COULD NEVER GET BEYOND THE MODERATE CU STAGE TODAY AS
INSTABILITY WAS LACKING. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FOR THE AREA. KEPT THE MENTION OF
HAZE IN MANY PLACES AS EASTERLY GRADIENT IS STILL NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET ALL OF THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE FROM THR
KING FIRE OUT OF THE AREA.

ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SATURDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SE AND DRAWS A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE
UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING SOME COOLING ALOFT AND AID IN PRODUCING INSTABILITY. SO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FOR
SATURDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS EAST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA. FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO
THE EAST TODAY, HELPING TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST. AIR QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN BETTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP A MENTION OF HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS WON`T BE ABLE TO FULLY SCOUR OUT
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK WEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN WHICH COULD PUSH SOME SMOKE
INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE DID SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, ALTHOUGH UNDER EAST FLOW ANY STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND WESTWARD.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE EVEN MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE`VE EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SIERRA ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HOON

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH MODELS IN
DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AND THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY
BEHIND THE WEEKEND`S EXITING LOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN THE THE WEST COAST.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH 700 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40-50 MPH, THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SMOKE FROM THE
KING FIRE BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REACHING THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THEY DO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z EC WAS
LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT SPLIT THE TROUGH, WHILE THE 12Z EC IS MUCH
FASTER TO SHIFT THE LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PAST TWO RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CLOSING IT OFF OVER UTAH...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH TOOK IT THOUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DJ

AVIATION...

AREAS OF HAZE ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REMNANT SMOKE FROM THE KIND FIRE. THIS MAY
BRING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY BUT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL SMOKE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE ONE CAVEAT IS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BRING THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN,
IMPACTING KTRK AND KTVL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
MAINLY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KLKN 192225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
325 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE CALIFORNIA FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL THE WHILE...
A PACIFIC SLOW IS GEARING UP TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
EXPECTING A BATCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CALIFORNIA FIRES CAST A PALL
OF SMOKEY AIR OVER NEVADA. FROM A SYNOPTIC VANTAGE...THERE IS A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGING TO NORTH. THE
MODELS DEPICT THIS PACIFIC LOW TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND...COMPLETE
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF. A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE SILVER STATE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL AND
LATER NORTHERN NV. BUMPED UP THE POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. QPF-
WISE...MULTIPLE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT STORM TOTALS NEAR OR OVER .50
OF AN INCH. MODELS HINTING AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR
SUNDAY...THE NAM12 HAS -6 LI`S FROM AUSTIN TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NORTHERN NYE COINCIDENT WITH IMPRESSIVE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS
AND +1000 J/KG OF CAPE. JUICY PWS EXTEND FROM YUMA AZ TO LANDER
COUNTY NV. BY 6Z SUNDAY...THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELY IS
VIRTUALLY SATURATED FROM 600 MB TO 450 MB...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPH. CORFIDI VECTORS VARY ZONE TO ZONE FROM 5
KNOTS TO 20 KNOTS. SUFFICE TO SAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE RADAR
THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HAVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...DRIER AIR MOVES IN THUS
HAVE LOWERED POPS. SHORTWAVE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFTS INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH WARM DRY SOUTHWEST
DEVELOPING. AS DEEP TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFERENT WITH THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND
COLDER THAN THE 12Z EC. EVEN SO...STILLS LOOKS WINDY IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4 MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS
DUE TO SMOKE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW IS SET TO MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A LIGHTNING OUTBREAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE
ZONES HAVE LALS OF 4 OR 5...AND IT IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT DOWN POURS...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87/97






000
FXUS65 KLKN 192225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
325 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE CALIFORNIA FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL THE WHILE...
A PACIFIC SLOW IS GEARING UP TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
EXPECTING A BATCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CALIFORNIA FIRES CAST A PALL
OF SMOKEY AIR OVER NEVADA. FROM A SYNOPTIC VANTAGE...THERE IS A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGING TO NORTH. THE
MODELS DEPICT THIS PACIFIC LOW TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND...COMPLETE
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF. A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE SILVER STATE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL AND
LATER NORTHERN NV. BUMPED UP THE POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. QPF-
WISE...MULTIPLE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT STORM TOTALS NEAR OR OVER .50
OF AN INCH. MODELS HINTING AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR
SUNDAY...THE NAM12 HAS -6 LI`S FROM AUSTIN TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NORTHERN NYE COINCIDENT WITH IMPRESSIVE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS
AND +1000 J/KG OF CAPE. JUICY PWS EXTEND FROM YUMA AZ TO LANDER
COUNTY NV. BY 6Z SUNDAY...THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELY IS
VIRTUALLY SATURATED FROM 600 MB TO 450 MB...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPH. CORFIDI VECTORS VARY ZONE TO ZONE FROM 5
KNOTS TO 20 KNOTS. SUFFICE TO SAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE RADAR
THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HAVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...DRIER AIR MOVES IN THUS
HAVE LOWERED POPS. SHORTWAVE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFTS INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH WARM DRY SOUTHWEST
DEVELOPING. AS DEEP TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFERENT WITH THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND
COLDER THAN THE 12Z EC. EVEN SO...STILLS LOOKS WINDY IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4 MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS
DUE TO SMOKE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW IS SET TO MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A LIGHTNING OUTBREAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE
ZONES HAVE LALS OF 4 OR 5...AND IT IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT DOWN POURS...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87/97





000
FXUS65 KREV 192136
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS EAST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA. FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO
THE EAST TODAY, HELPING TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST. AIR QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN BETTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP A MENTION OF HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS WON`T BE ABLE TO FULLY SCOUR OUT
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK WEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN WHICH COULD PUSH SOME SMOKE
INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE DID SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, ALTHOUGH UNDER EAST FLOW ANY STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND WESTWARD.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE EVEN MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE`VE EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SIERRA ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH MODELS IN
DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AND THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY
BEHIND THE WEEKEND`S EXITING LOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN THE THE WEST COAST.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH 700 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40-50 MPH, THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SMOKE FROM THE
KING FIRE BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REACHING THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THEY DO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z EC WAS
LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT SPLIT THE TROUGH, WHILE THE 12Z EC IS MUCH
FASTER TO SHIFT THE LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PAST TWO RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CLOSING IT OFF OVER UTAH...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH TOOK IT THOUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF HAZE ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REMNANT SMOKE FROM THE KIND FIRE. THIS MAY
BRING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY BUT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL SMOKE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE ONE CAVEAT IS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BRING THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN,
IMPACTING KTRK AND KTVL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
MAINLY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 192136
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS EAST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA. FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO
THE EAST TODAY, HELPING TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST. AIR QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN BETTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP A MENTION OF HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS WON`T BE ABLE TO FULLY SCOUR OUT
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK WEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN WHICH COULD PUSH SOME SMOKE
INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE DID SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, ALTHOUGH UNDER EAST FLOW ANY STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND WESTWARD.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE EVEN MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE`VE EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SIERRA ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH MODELS IN
DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AND THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY
BEHIND THE WEEKEND`S EXITING LOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN THE THE WEST COAST.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH 700 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40-50 MPH, THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SMOKE FROM THE
KING FIRE BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REACHING THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THEY DO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z EC WAS
LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT SPLIT THE TROUGH, WHILE THE 12Z EC IS MUCH
FASTER TO SHIFT THE LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PAST TWO RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CLOSING IT OFF OVER UTAH...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH TOOK IT THOUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF HAZE ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REMNANT SMOKE FROM THE KIND FIRE. THIS MAY
BRING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY BUT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL SMOKE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE ONE CAVEAT IS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BRING THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN,
IMPACTING KTRK AND KTVL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
MAINLY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 192136
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS EAST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA. FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO
THE EAST TODAY, HELPING TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST. AIR QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN BETTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP A MENTION OF HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS WON`T BE ABLE TO FULLY SCOUR OUT
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK WEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN WHICH COULD PUSH SOME SMOKE
INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE DID SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, ALTHOUGH UNDER EAST FLOW ANY STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND WESTWARD.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE EVEN MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE`VE EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SIERRA ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH MODELS IN
DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AND THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY
BEHIND THE WEEKEND`S EXITING LOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN THE THE WEST COAST.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH 700 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40-50 MPH, THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SMOKE FROM THE
KING FIRE BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REACHING THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THEY DO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z EC WAS
LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT SPLIT THE TROUGH, WHILE THE 12Z EC IS MUCH
FASTER TO SHIFT THE LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PAST TWO RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CLOSING IT OFF OVER UTAH...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH TOOK IT THOUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF HAZE ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REMNANT SMOKE FROM THE KIND FIRE. THIS MAY
BRING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY BUT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL SMOKE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE ONE CAVEAT IS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BRING THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN,
IMPACTING KTRK AND KTVL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
MAINLY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 192136
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS EAST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA. FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO
THE EAST TODAY, HELPING TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST. AIR QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN BETTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP A MENTION OF HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS WON`T BE ABLE TO FULLY SCOUR OUT
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK WEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN WHICH COULD PUSH SOME SMOKE
INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE DID SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, ALTHOUGH UNDER EAST FLOW ANY STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND WESTWARD.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE EVEN MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE`VE EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SIERRA ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH MODELS IN
DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AND THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY
BEHIND THE WEEKEND`S EXITING LOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN THE THE WEST COAST.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH 700 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40-50 MPH, THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SMOKE FROM THE
KING FIRE BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REACHING THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THEY DO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z EC WAS
LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT SPLIT THE TROUGH, WHILE THE 12Z EC IS MUCH
FASTER TO SHIFT THE LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PAST TWO RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CLOSING IT OFF OVER UTAH...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH TOOK IT THOUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF HAZE ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REMNANT SMOKE FROM THE KIND FIRE. THIS MAY
BRING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY BUT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL SMOKE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE ONE CAVEAT IS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BRING THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN,
IMPACTING KTRK AND KTVL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
MAINLY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KVEF 192045
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 192045
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 191437
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
737 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OWENS VALLEY
AREA AND INTO ESMERALDA COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN
SOME HAZE/SMOKE INTO THE AREA. AREA WEBCAMS AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE VISIBILITY CAN BE REDUCED TO ABOUT 3-4 MILES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE
MOMENT...NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...THE SIERRA
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PULLING MOISTURE UP AHEAD
OF THE LOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WE REALLY WONT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THEN LIGHT SOUTH AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY SOUTH 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 191437
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
737 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OWENS VALLEY
AREA AND INTO ESMERALDA COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN
SOME HAZE/SMOKE INTO THE AREA. AREA WEBCAMS AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE VISIBILITY CAN BE REDUCED TO ABOUT 3-4 MILES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE
MOMENT...NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...THE SIERRA
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PULLING MOISTURE UP AHEAD
OF THE LOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WE REALLY WONT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THEN LIGHT SOUTH AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY SOUTH 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









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