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000
FXUS65 KVEF 222130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110 DEGREES
FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA
NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO REMEMBER THOSE HEAT
SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE WIND SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 02Z. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 222130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110 DEGREES
FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA
NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO REMEMBER THOSE HEAT
SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE WIND SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 02Z. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 222107
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS RETURNS WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL EXIT
THIS EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHEAR
AND MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN DECENT. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NV. ANY STORMS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL MOVE OUT BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV BY MID
EVENING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40-50 MPH. LAKE
WATERS WILL BE LOCALLY CHOPPY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON LAKE
TAHOE AND MOST LAKES BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL MONITOR AND
ISSUE HEADLINES IF MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS TREND HIGHER. FOR FIRE
WEATHER, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER, WINDS COULD CREATE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING FIRES AND HEADLINES FOR INDIVIDUAL
FIRES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE AND DRIER WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WED-THU. A FEW BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LASSEN COUNTY
CONVERGENCE WED AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS GOING TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FOR THURSDAY WITH A
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN NV. TEMPERATURES
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH THE BIG
WARMUP NOT LIKELY TO START UNTIL FRIDAY. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RAISE BACK INTO THE 95-105 RANGE WITH
80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE SIERRA.

BY SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS FAR NORTH AS SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH AND WEST OF RENO TO HAWTHORNE. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE
IN PULLING THE REMNANT OF A LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
AROUND THE HIGH AND OVER CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.  THIS MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF
KTRK-KRNO-KLOL, THOUGH A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST
OF KRNO-KCXP-KMEV, THEN QUICKLY TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH
THE JET OVERHEAD, ANY STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE 50KT
OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS A LESSER CONCERN DUE TO STORM
MOTIONS NEAR 20 KTS.

DRIER STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TOMORROW AS A LOW REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  PEAK GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD REACH 25-30KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 222107
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS RETURNS WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL EXIT
THIS EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHEAR
AND MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN DECENT. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NV. ANY STORMS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL MOVE OUT BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV BY MID
EVENING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40-50 MPH. LAKE
WATERS WILL BE LOCALLY CHOPPY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON LAKE
TAHOE AND MOST LAKES BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL MONITOR AND
ISSUE HEADLINES IF MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS TREND HIGHER. FOR FIRE
WEATHER, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER, WINDS COULD CREATE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING FIRES AND HEADLINES FOR INDIVIDUAL
FIRES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE AND DRIER WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WED-THU. A FEW BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LASSEN COUNTY
CONVERGENCE WED AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS GOING TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FOR THURSDAY WITH A
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN NV. TEMPERATURES
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH THE BIG
WARMUP NOT LIKELY TO START UNTIL FRIDAY. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RAISE BACK INTO THE 95-105 RANGE WITH
80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE SIERRA.

BY SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS FAR NORTH AS SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH AND WEST OF RENO TO HAWTHORNE. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE
IN PULLING THE REMNANT OF A LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
AROUND THE HIGH AND OVER CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.  THIS MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF
KTRK-KRNO-KLOL, THOUGH A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST
OF KRNO-KCXP-KMEV, THEN QUICKLY TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH
THE JET OVERHEAD, ANY STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE 50KT
OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS A LESSER CONCERN DUE TO STORM
MOTIONS NEAR 20 KTS.

DRIER STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TOMORROW AS A LOW REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  PEAK GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD REACH 25-30KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KLKN 221917
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1217 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...AFTER REVIEWING LATEST DATA...BELIEVE THERE
IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT OUT 454 WHERE LOWER
VALLEYS TEND TO RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS...AND 467 WHERE RH MAY
STAY TOO HIGH. ELSEWHERE SHOULD MARGINALLY REACH <15% HUMIDITY AND
WINDS GUSTING >30 MPH...SO WARNING IS JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. RCM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 326 AM /

SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THICK CLOUDS ARE SPREADING UP
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LAST WELL INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG SHEAR OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TODAY. STORM-FREE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AGAIN DUE TO A
75KT H3 JET OVERHEAD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. BUILDING FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST JUST
YET. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AS FOUR CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS
NORTHWARD.

AVIATION...INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WILL BRING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE KWMC TERMINAL AFT 19Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET
UP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS BUILDING UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST AFTERNOONS
LATER THIS WEEK...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE STORMS AND NEW FIRE STARTS ACROSS ZONES 467 AND 468
TODAY...ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE ONGOING FIRES PERSIST.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 221917
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1217 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...AFTER REVIEWING LATEST DATA...BELIEVE THERE
IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT OUT 454 WHERE LOWER
VALLEYS TEND TO RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS...AND 467 WHERE RH MAY
STAY TOO HIGH. ELSEWHERE SHOULD MARGINALLY REACH <15% HUMIDITY AND
WINDS GUSTING >30 MPH...SO WARNING IS JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. RCM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 326 AM /

SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THICK CLOUDS ARE SPREADING UP
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LAST WELL INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG SHEAR OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TODAY. STORM-FREE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AGAIN DUE TO A
75KT H3 JET OVERHEAD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. BUILDING FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST JUST
YET. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AS FOUR CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS
NORTHWARD.

AVIATION...INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WILL BRING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE KWMC TERMINAL AFT 19Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET
UP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS BUILDING UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST AFTERNOONS
LATER THIS WEEK...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE STORMS AND NEW FIRE STARTS ACROSS ZONES 467 AND 468
TODAY...ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE ONGOING FIRES PERSIST.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

93





000
FXUS65 KREV 221612 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH NORTHWEST NV-NORTHEAST CA. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG ROTATING STORMS AGAIN TODAY WHERE STORMS
CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE BUOYANCY
(CAPE 750-1000 J/KG). THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION
IS GOING TO BE ISOLATED, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
THE SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WHERE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
STORMS TO BACKBUILD BUT TRAINING OF STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG A SSW-
NNE LINE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH RAINFALL TO FALL
UNDERNEATH STORM CORES AND THEIR TRACKS. WHILE DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED TODAY, MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PUT DOWN
WETTING RAINS. FIRE OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR FOR THESE ISOLATED
DRY STRIKES. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CA-WESTERN NV AT
THIS TIME.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MAINLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING AT 500
MB COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS, EVEN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LESS CAPPED TODAY SO CELLS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM OVER NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY. CELL
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MOVE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY, AT
SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED
FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.

BY THIS EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY/SURPRISE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MOST CELLS DIMINISHING OR EXITING
THESE AREAS BY 9 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES.

FOR THURSDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. HEIGHTS AND H700 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED A BIT MORE NW TO SE BY SUNDAY THERE
ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO THE SRN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. NOW THERE ARE HINTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH MONDAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLIES DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE...WILL
ALLOW POPS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH MOST OF NE CA BUT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WRN NV.

HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS
WILL BE...SO WILL NEED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. 20

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS PROBABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SOUTH TO AROUND BRIDGEPORT AND HAWTHORNE. TSTMS
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SW. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45
KTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TERMINAL TO SEE A TSTM WILL BE
IN THE KNFL AND KLOL AREAS AND POSSIBLY KSVE WHERE BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)













000
FXUS65 KREV 221612 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH NORTHWEST NV-NORTHEAST CA. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG ROTATING STORMS AGAIN TODAY WHERE STORMS
CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE BUOYANCY
(CAPE 750-1000 J/KG). THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION
IS GOING TO BE ISOLATED, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
THE SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WHERE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
STORMS TO BACKBUILD BUT TRAINING OF STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG A SSW-
NNE LINE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH RAINFALL TO FALL
UNDERNEATH STORM CORES AND THEIR TRACKS. WHILE DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED TODAY, MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PUT DOWN
WETTING RAINS. FIRE OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR FOR THESE ISOLATED
DRY STRIKES. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CA-WESTERN NV AT
THIS TIME.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MAINLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING AT 500
MB COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS, EVEN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LESS CAPPED TODAY SO CELLS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM OVER NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY. CELL
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MOVE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY, AT
SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED
FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.

BY THIS EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY/SURPRISE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MOST CELLS DIMINISHING OR EXITING
THESE AREAS BY 9 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES.

FOR THURSDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. HEIGHTS AND H700 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED A BIT MORE NW TO SE BY SUNDAY THERE
ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO THE SRN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. NOW THERE ARE HINTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH MONDAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLIES DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE...WILL
ALLOW POPS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH MOST OF NE CA BUT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WRN NV.

HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS
WILL BE...SO WILL NEED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. 20

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS PROBABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SOUTH TO AROUND BRIDGEPORT AND HAWTHORNE. TSTMS
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SW. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45
KTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TERMINAL TO SEE A TSTM WILL BE
IN THE KNFL AND KLOL AREAS AND POSSIBLY KSVE WHERE BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)














000
FXUS65 KREV 221544 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH NORTHWEST NV-NORTHEAST CA. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG ROTATING STORMS AGAIN TODAY WHERE STORMS
CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE BOYANCY
(CAPE 750-1000 J/KG). THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION
IS GOING TO BE ISOLATED, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
THE SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WHERE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST. CORDFIDI VECTORS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
STORMS TO BACKBUILD BUT TRAINING OF STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG A SSW-
NNE LINE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH RAINFALL TO FALL
UNDERNEATH STORM CORES AND THEIR TRACKS. WHILE DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED TODAY, MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PUT DOWN
WETTING RAINS. FIRE OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR FOR THESE ISOLATED
DRY STRIKES. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CA-WESTERN NV AT
THIS TIME.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MAINLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING AT 500
MB COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS, EVEN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LESS CAPPED TODAY SO CELLS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM OVER NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY. CELL
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MOVE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY, AT
SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED
FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.

BY THIS EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY/SURPRISE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MOST CELLS DIMINISHING OR EXITING
THESE AREAS BY 9 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES.

FOR THURSDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. HEIGHTS AND H700 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED A BIT MORE NW TO SE BY SUNDAY THERE
ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO THE SRN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. NOW THERE ARE HINTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH MONDAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLIES DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE...WILL
ALLOW POPS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH MOST OF NE CA BUT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WRN NV.

HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS
WILL BE...SO WILL NEED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. 20

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS PROBABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SOUTH TO AROUND BRIDGEPORT AND HAWTHORNE. TSTMS
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SW. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45
KTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TERMINAL TO SEE A TSTM WILL BE
IN THE KNFL AND KLOL AREAS AND POSSIBLY KSVE WHERE BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 221544 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH NORTHWEST NV-NORTHEAST CA. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG ROTATING STORMS AGAIN TODAY WHERE STORMS
CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE BOYANCY
(CAPE 750-1000 J/KG). THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION
IS GOING TO BE ISOLATED, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
THE SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WHERE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST. CORDFIDI VECTORS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
STORMS TO BACKBUILD BUT TRAINING OF STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG A SSW-
NNE LINE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH RAINFALL TO FALL
UNDERNEATH STORM CORES AND THEIR TRACKS. WHILE DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED TODAY, MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PUT DOWN
WETTING RAINS. FIRE OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR FOR THESE ISOLATED
DRY STRIKES. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CA-WESTERN NV AT
THIS TIME.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MAINLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING AT 500
MB COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS, EVEN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LESS CAPPED TODAY SO CELLS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM OVER NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY. CELL
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MOVE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY, AT
SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED
FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.

BY THIS EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY/SURPRISE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MOST CELLS DIMINISHING OR EXITING
THESE AREAS BY 9 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES.

FOR THURSDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. HEIGHTS AND H700 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED A BIT MORE NW TO SE BY SUNDAY THERE
ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO THE SRN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. NOW THERE ARE HINTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH MONDAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLIES DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE...WILL
ALLOW POPS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH MOST OF NE CA BUT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WRN NV.

HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS
WILL BE...SO WILL NEED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. 20

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS PROBABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SOUTH TO AROUND BRIDGEPORT AND HAWTHORNE. TSTMS
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SW. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45
KTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TERMINAL TO SEE A TSTM WILL BE
IN THE KNFL AND KLOL AREAS AND POSSIBLY KSVE WHERE BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KVEF 221543 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
843 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CENTER NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WITH MORNING
ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN EL PASO AND TUCSON
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA HAS BROUGHT PRECIP. WATER VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH AT
PHOENIX AND TUCSON. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CLARK COUNTIES BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO UPDATED NEEDED THIS
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA IN THE COMING DAYS AS
WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 221543 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
843 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CENTER NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WITH MORNING
ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN EL PASO AND TUCSON
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA HAS BROUGHT PRECIP. WATER VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH AT
PHOENIX AND TUCSON. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CLARK COUNTIES BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO UPDATED NEEDED THIS
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA IN THE COMING DAYS AS
WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KLKN 221026
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THICK CLOUDS ARE SPREADING UP
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LAST WELL INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG SHEAR OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TODAY. STORM-FREE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AGAIN DUE TO A
75KT H3 JET OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. BUILDING FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST JUST
YET. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AS FOUR CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WILL BRING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE KWMC TERMINAL AFT 19Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET
UP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS BUILDING UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST AFTERNOONS
LATER THIS WEEK...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE STORMS AND NEW FIRE STARTS ACROSS ZONES 467 AND 468
TODAY...ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE ONGOING FIRES PERSIST.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/91/91/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 221026
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THICK CLOUDS ARE SPREADING UP
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LAST WELL INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG SHEAR OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TODAY. STORM-FREE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AGAIN DUE TO A
75KT H3 JET OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. BUILDING FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST JUST
YET. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AS FOUR CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WILL BRING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE KWMC TERMINAL AFT 19Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET
UP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS BUILDING UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST AFTERNOONS
LATER THIS WEEK...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE STORMS AND NEW FIRE STARTS ACROSS ZONES 467 AND 468
TODAY...ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE ONGOING FIRES PERSIST.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/91/91/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 221026
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THICK CLOUDS ARE SPREADING UP
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LAST WELL INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG SHEAR OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TODAY. STORM-FREE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AGAIN DUE TO A
75KT H3 JET OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. BUILDING FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST JUST
YET. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AS FOUR CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WILL BRING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE KWMC TERMINAL AFT 19Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET
UP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS BUILDING UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST AFTERNOONS
LATER THIS WEEK...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE STORMS AND NEW FIRE STARTS ACROSS ZONES 467 AND 468
TODAY...ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE ONGOING FIRES PERSIST.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/91/91/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 221026
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA AGAIN TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THICK CLOUDS ARE SPREADING UP
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LAST WELL INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG SHEAR OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TODAY. STORM-FREE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AGAIN DUE TO A
75KT H3 JET OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. BUILDING FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST JUST
YET. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AS FOUR CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WILL BRING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE KWMC TERMINAL AFT 19Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TODAY...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET
UP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS BUILDING UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA MOST AFTERNOONS
LATER THIS WEEK...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE STORMS AND NEW FIRE STARTS ACROSS ZONES 467 AND 468
TODAY...ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE ONGOING FIRES PERSIST.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/91/91/96






000
FXUS65 KREV 221000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CA-WESTERN NV AT
THIS TIME.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MAINLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING AT 500
MB COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS, EVEN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LESS CAPPED TODAY SO CELLS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM OVER NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY. CELL
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MOVE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY, AT
SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED
FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.

BY THIS EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY/SURPRISE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MOST CELLS DIMINISHING OR EXITING
THESE AREAS BY 9 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES.

FOR THURSDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. HEIGHTS AND H700 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED A BIT MORE NW TO SE BY SUNDAY THERE
ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO THE SRN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. NOW THERE ARE HINTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH MONDAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLIES DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE...WILL
ALLOW POPS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH MOST OF NE CA BUT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WRN NV.

HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS
WILL BE...SO WILL NEED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS PROBABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SOUTH TO AROUND BRIDGEPORT AND HAWTHORNE. TSTMS
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SW. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45
KTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TERMINAL TO SEE A TSTM WILL BE
IN THE KNFL AND KLOL AREAS AND POSSIBLY KSVE WHERE BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 221000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CA-WESTERN NV AT
THIS TIME.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MAINLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING AT 500
MB COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS, EVEN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LESS CAPPED TODAY SO CELLS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM OVER NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY. CELL
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MOVE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY, AT
SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED
FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.

BY THIS EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY/SURPRISE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MOST CELLS DIMINISHING OR EXITING
THESE AREAS BY 9 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES.

FOR THURSDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. HEIGHTS AND H700 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED A BIT MORE NW TO SE BY SUNDAY THERE
ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO THE SRN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. NOW THERE ARE HINTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH MONDAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLIES DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE...WILL
ALLOW POPS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH MOST OF NE CA BUT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WRN NV.

HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS
WILL BE...SO WILL NEED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS PROBABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SOUTH TO AROUND BRIDGEPORT AND HAWTHORNE. TSTMS
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SW. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45
KTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TERMINAL TO SEE A TSTM WILL BE
IN THE KNFL AND KLOL AREAS AND POSSIBLY KSVE WHERE BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KVEF 220922
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 220922
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 220922
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 220922
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KREV 220533 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1033 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

AFTER A VERY INTERESTING EVENING OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEVADA, ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH ONLY
A SINGLE ISOLATED CELL STILL MOVING INTO PERSHING COUNTY AT THIS
HOUR.

THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WAS CONDUCIVE TO LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS, DUE
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE (DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES), GOOD
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALOFT WITH A LOW LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION
AROUND 10K FEET (LOW BY RENO STANDARDS!).

THE STORM THAT PREVIOUSLY PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE TORNADO
WARNING IN STOREY AND WASHOE COUNTY WAS DEFINITELY A POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELL WITH HOOK ECHO AND DESCENDING WALL CLOUD.
SEVERAL RESIDENTS IN SPARKS TOOK PHOTOS AND TIME LAPSE VIDEO OF
THE ROTATING WALL CLOUD AS IT MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
SPARKS. SEE THE PHOTOS AND VIDEO WE RESHARED ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...

EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF AN ACTUAL TORNADO ON THE
GROUND OR DAMAGE FROM A TORNADO, THE POTENTIAL WAS DEFINITELY
THERE. HOWEVER, THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF THE ROTATING WALL CLOUD
AND FUNNEL CLOUD.

THIS STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PAH RAH MOUNTAINS,
THROUGH PALOMINO VALLEY, AND INTO THE PYRAMID LAKE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. THE STORM CONTINUED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL
GREATER THAN QUARTER SIZE, AND GOOD ROTATION ON RADAR EVEN AS IT
APPROACHED THE PYRAMID LAKE AREA, BUT THERE WERE NOT REPORTS OF A
TORNADO THERE AS WELL. HOON


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER BY
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. LOCALLY BREEZY
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONCE AGAIN FIRING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 IN
AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET. WINDS ALOFT
WERE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN SUNDAY AND STORM MOTIONS ARE
NOTABLY FASTER WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH STORMS, SO FAR LOOKING
MORE ORGANIZED FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH, INSTABILITY IS BETTER WITH SPC SREF CAPE
BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS ALOFT ARE
INCREASING AND STORMS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A BIT MORE SHEAR. ANY
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT INTO WESTERN NV
WILL BE CAPABLE MAINLY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL.
COVERAGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 FROM RENO SOUTHWARD IS GOING TO BE
ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING BUT
LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BASIN AND RANGE
AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS AND A BIT LESS
MOISTURE. SO STORMS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRIER. WHILE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AFTERNOON ZEPHYR NEAR
THE SIERRA FRONT (PINE NUTS-VIRGINIA RANGE).

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL CONVECTION OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND AREAS
NORTH OF I-80. AFTER THE RECENT RAINS, AND NOSE OF DRY SLOT COMING
IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS, ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FOLLOW MOST CURRENT TRENDS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLUX
AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID SPREAD CONVECTION NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA INTO LASSEN COUNTY INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN FOR
MONDAY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND COVERAGE TO WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ROUTE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND
FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF
50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 220533 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1033 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

AFTER A VERY INTERESTING EVENING OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEVADA, ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH ONLY
A SINGLE ISOLATED CELL STILL MOVING INTO PERSHING COUNTY AT THIS
HOUR.

THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WAS CONDUCIVE TO LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS, DUE
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE (DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES), GOOD
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALOFT WITH A LOW LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION
AROUND 10K FEET (LOW BY RENO STANDARDS!).

THE STORM THAT PREVIOUSLY PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE TORNADO
WARNING IN STOREY AND WASHOE COUNTY WAS DEFINITELY A POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELL WITH HOOK ECHO AND DESCENDING WALL CLOUD.
SEVERAL RESIDENTS IN SPARKS TOOK PHOTOS AND TIME LAPSE VIDEO OF
THE ROTATING WALL CLOUD AS IT MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
SPARKS. SEE THE PHOTOS AND VIDEO WE RESHARED ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...

EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF AN ACTUAL TORNADO ON THE
GROUND OR DAMAGE FROM A TORNADO, THE POTENTIAL WAS DEFINITELY
THERE. HOWEVER, THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF THE ROTATING WALL CLOUD
AND FUNNEL CLOUD.

THIS STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PAH RAH MOUNTAINS,
THROUGH PALOMINO VALLEY, AND INTO THE PYRAMID LAKE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. THE STORM CONTINUED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL
GREATER THAN QUARTER SIZE, AND GOOD ROTATION ON RADAR EVEN AS IT
APPROACHED THE PYRAMID LAKE AREA, BUT THERE WERE NOT REPORTS OF A
TORNADO THERE AS WELL. HOON


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER BY
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. LOCALLY BREEZY
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONCE AGAIN FIRING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 IN
AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET. WINDS ALOFT
WERE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN SUNDAY AND STORM MOTIONS ARE
NOTABLY FASTER WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH STORMS, SO FAR LOOKING
MORE ORGANIZED FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH, INSTABILITY IS BETTER WITH SPC SREF CAPE
BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS ALOFT ARE
INCREASING AND STORMS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A BIT MORE SHEAR. ANY
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT INTO WESTERN NV
WILL BE CAPABLE MAINLY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL.
COVERAGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 FROM RENO SOUTHWARD IS GOING TO BE
ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING BUT
LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BASIN AND RANGE
AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS AND A BIT LESS
MOISTURE. SO STORMS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRIER. WHILE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AFTERNOON ZEPHYR NEAR
THE SIERRA FRONT (PINE NUTS-VIRGINIA RANGE).

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL CONVECTION OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND AREAS
NORTH OF I-80. AFTER THE RECENT RAINS, AND NOSE OF DRY SLOT COMING
IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS, ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FOLLOW MOST CURRENT TRENDS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLUX
AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID SPREAD CONVECTION NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA INTO LASSEN COUNTY INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN FOR
MONDAY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND COVERAGE TO WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ROUTE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND
FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF
50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 220401
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS THREE WERE HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINLY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE REST OF THE AREA CLEAR. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ARE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
234 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING A SMALLER IMPULSE BREAKING
AWAY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR WEST AS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CLARK COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE LAGGING
BEHIND FORECAST INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY IN MINIMAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HI-BASED STORMS OVER THE TERRAIN SO DID INCREASE POPS. ELSEWHERE,
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF
SHOWING TEMPS OF 112/114 FOR LAS VEGAS ON FRIDAY AND HAS COME DOWN
TO 110/112. THE GFS REMAINS THE COOLER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH TEMPS
107/109. HOWEVER...USING THE MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY AND LOCAL GUIDANCE ON THE EQUIVALENT SURFACE TEMP FOR A
GIVEN 850 MB TEMP THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING OUT AT 111
DEGREES. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE 110 FOR THURSDAY AND 111 IN FOR FRIDAY
FOR LAS VEGAS. THE LINGERING CONSISTENCY ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NOW LOWER THAN EARLIER DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS AS CURRENT NUMBERS ARE JUST
BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE HIGH WILL START TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY ON SATURDAY. SPREAD POPS NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOWER A DEGREE OR
TWO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES BOTH
DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 212133
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING A SMALLER IMPULSE BREAKING
AWAY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR WEST AS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CLARK COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE LAGGING
BEHIND FORECAST INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY IN MINIMAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HI-BASED STORMS OVER THE TERRAIN SO DID INCREASE POPS. ELSEWHERE,
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF
SHOWING TEMPS OF 112/114 FOR LAS VEGAS ON FRIDAY AND HAS COME DOWN
TO 110/112. THE GFS REMAINS THE COOLER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH TEMPS
107/109. HOWEVER...USING THE MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY AND LOCAL GUIDANCE ON THE EQUIVALENT SURFACE TEMP FOR A
GIVEN 850 MB TEMP THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING OUT AT 111
DEGREES. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE 110 FOR THURSDAY AND 111 IN FOR FRIDAY
FOR LAS VEGAS. THE LINGERING CONSISTENCY ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NOW LOWER THAN EARLIER DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS AS CURRENT NUMBERS ARE JUST
BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE HIGH WILL START TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY ON SATURDAY. SPREAD POPS NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOWER A DEGREE OR
TWO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES BOTH
DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TERMINAL RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATES
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. WINDS GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 212133
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING A SMALLER IMPULSE BREAKING
AWAY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR WEST AS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CLARK COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE LAGGING
BEHIND FORECAST INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY IN MINIMAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HI-BASED STORMS OVER THE TERRAIN SO DID INCREASE POPS. ELSEWHERE,
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF
SHOWING TEMPS OF 112/114 FOR LAS VEGAS ON FRIDAY AND HAS COME DOWN
TO 110/112. THE GFS REMAINS THE COOLER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH TEMPS
107/109. HOWEVER...USING THE MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY AND LOCAL GUIDANCE ON THE EQUIVALENT SURFACE TEMP FOR A
GIVEN 850 MB TEMP THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING OUT AT 111
DEGREES. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE 110 FOR THURSDAY AND 111 IN FOR FRIDAY
FOR LAS VEGAS. THE LINGERING CONSISTENCY ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NOW LOWER THAN EARLIER DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS AS CURRENT NUMBERS ARE JUST
BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE HIGH WILL START TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY ON SATURDAY. SPREAD POPS NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOWER A DEGREE OR
TWO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES BOTH
DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TERMINAL RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATES
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. WINDS GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KLKN 212104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO HUMBOLDT AND EXTREME WESTERN
ELKO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. DRIER MID WEEK WITH AFTERNOON WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. LACKING MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT TODAY...BUT
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION GOING. ALSO...NEAT LITTLE MCV CURRENTLY
EXITING NORTHERN NV. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE LOCAL LIFT/MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT. MUCH STRONGER JET AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD PERSIST IN FAR NORTHERN NV AS DYNAMICS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE NEXT TROUGH. HRRR/NAM STILL SHOWS AN ACTIVE DAY AND
CUMULUS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ROBUST. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE AND THE ONLY THREAT WILL BE IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.
THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG JET AND LINGERING MOISTURE. STORM MOTION
WILL BE QUITE FAST AND WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. SHREF GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEVADA...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE ITS HOLD AND
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE.

WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOMETIME WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE. MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. JRM

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LONG
TERM. HOT AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NO CHANCE
OF RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF
NEVADA, INTO ALBERTA CANADA, ON THURSDAY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE ON NEVADA`S WEATHER IS DRAG MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH 12Z GFS FORECASTING PW FALLING TO 0.25-0.35 INCH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY OF AN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS
AND CERTAINLY ZERO POPS AND NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REASONABLE FOR LATE JULY, IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY NW, WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
OVER NEVADA. DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST, WITH PW REMAINING BELOW 0.50
INCH FOR MOST ZONES, SO FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE 90S AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS NOT AVAILABLE, BUT 12Z GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. KEPT FORECAST DRY (POPS LESS THAN 15%) FOR NOW. 12Z GFS
DOES PUMP UP PW TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA BY MONDAY,
WITH CONVECTION INDICATED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. BT

&&

.AVIATION...SCT -TSRA WILL IMPACT KWMC, KEKO AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH 03Z. CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF SITES.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KTPH/KELY. SW WINDS OF
15-20 KTS OUTSIDE OF -TSRA. ALL CUMULUS AND CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TUESDAY, EXPECT TSRA TO BE LIMITED TO NW
NEVADA (HUMBOLDT COUNTY) WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED AT/NEAR KWMC.
STORMS NEAR KWMC TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOWS AND SMALL HAIL. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE DRY
TUESDAY. AFTER 18Z TUE, STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT KTPH/KELY
AVERAGING 16-26 KTS. BT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO INHIBIT DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND WILL BE CARRIED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
FWZ 455/457. THERE WILL BE RH RECOVERIES AND LESS WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FWZ 470 FOR WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISTRICT...FWZ 467, 468, AND 469 WILL BE
DRYING OUT AFTER TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
IN FWZ 467/468. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED. MUCH DRIER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY
DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

94/99/99/94






000
FXUS65 KLKN 212104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO HUMBOLDT AND EXTREME WESTERN
ELKO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. DRIER MID WEEK WITH AFTERNOON WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. LACKING MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT TODAY...BUT
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION GOING. ALSO...NEAT LITTLE MCV CURRENTLY
EXITING NORTHERN NV. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE LOCAL LIFT/MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT. MUCH STRONGER JET AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD PERSIST IN FAR NORTHERN NV AS DYNAMICS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE NEXT TROUGH. HRRR/NAM STILL SHOWS AN ACTIVE DAY AND
CUMULUS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ROBUST. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE AND THE ONLY THREAT WILL BE IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.
THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG JET AND LINGERING MOISTURE. STORM MOTION
WILL BE QUITE FAST AND WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. SHREF GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEVADA...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE ITS HOLD AND
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE.

WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOMETIME WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE. MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. JRM

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LONG
TERM. HOT AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NO CHANCE
OF RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF
NEVADA, INTO ALBERTA CANADA, ON THURSDAY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE ON NEVADA`S WEATHER IS DRAG MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH 12Z GFS FORECASTING PW FALLING TO 0.25-0.35 INCH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY OF AN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS
AND CERTAINLY ZERO POPS AND NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REASONABLE FOR LATE JULY, IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY NW, WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
OVER NEVADA. DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST, WITH PW REMAINING BELOW 0.50
INCH FOR MOST ZONES, SO FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE 90S AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS NOT AVAILABLE, BUT 12Z GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. KEPT FORECAST DRY (POPS LESS THAN 15%) FOR NOW. 12Z GFS
DOES PUMP UP PW TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA BY MONDAY,
WITH CONVECTION INDICATED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. BT

&&

.AVIATION...SCT -TSRA WILL IMPACT KWMC, KEKO AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH 03Z. CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF SITES.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KTPH/KELY. SW WINDS OF
15-20 KTS OUTSIDE OF -TSRA. ALL CUMULUS AND CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TUESDAY, EXPECT TSRA TO BE LIMITED TO NW
NEVADA (HUMBOLDT COUNTY) WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED AT/NEAR KWMC.
STORMS NEAR KWMC TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOWS AND SMALL HAIL. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE DRY
TUESDAY. AFTER 18Z TUE, STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT KTPH/KELY
AVERAGING 16-26 KTS. BT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO INHIBIT DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND WILL BE CARRIED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
FWZ 455/457. THERE WILL BE RH RECOVERIES AND LESS WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FWZ 470 FOR WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISTRICT...FWZ 467, 468, AND 469 WILL BE
DRYING OUT AFTER TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
IN FWZ 467/468. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED. MUCH DRIER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY
DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

94/99/99/94





000
FXUS65 KREV 212049
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
149 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER BY
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. LOCALLY BREEZY
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONCE AGAIN FIRING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 IN
AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET. WINDS ALOFT
WERE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN SUNDAY AND STORM MOTIONS ARE
NOTABLY FASTER WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH STORMS, SO FAR LOOKING
MORE ORGANIZED FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH, INSTABILITY IS BETTER WITH SPC SREF CAPE
BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS ALOFT ARE
INCREASING AND STORMS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A BIT MORE SHEAR. ANY
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT INTO WESTERN NV
WILL BE CAPABLE MAINLY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL.
COVERAGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 FROM RENO SOUTHWARD IS GOING TO BE
ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING BUT
LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BASIN AND RANGE
AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS AND A BIT LESS
MOISTURE. SO STORMS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRIER. WHILE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AFTERNOON ZEPHYR NEAR
THE SIERRA FRONT (PINE NUTS-VIRGINIA RANGE).

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL CONVECTION OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND AREAS
NORTH OF I-80. AFTER THE RECENT RAINS, AND NOSE OF DRY SLOT COMING
IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS, ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FOLLOW MOST CURRENT TRENDS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLUX
AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID SPREAD CONVECTION NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA INTO LASSEN COUNTY INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN FOR
MONDAY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND COVERAGE TO WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ROUTE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AGAIN. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND
FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF
50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 212049
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
149 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER BY
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. LOCALLY BREEZY
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONCE AGAIN FIRING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 IN
AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET. WINDS ALOFT
WERE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN SUNDAY AND STORM MOTIONS ARE
NOTABLY FASTER WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH STORMS, SO FAR LOOKING
MORE ORGANIZED FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH, INSTABILITY IS BETTER WITH SPC SREF CAPE
BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS ALOFT ARE
INCREASING AND STORMS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A BIT MORE SHEAR. ANY
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT INTO WESTERN NV
WILL BE CAPABLE MAINLY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL.
COVERAGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 FROM RENO SOUTHWARD IS GOING TO BE
ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING BUT
LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BASIN AND RANGE
AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS AND A BIT LESS
MOISTURE. SO STORMS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRIER. WHILE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AFTERNOON ZEPHYR NEAR
THE SIERRA FRONT (PINE NUTS-VIRGINIA RANGE).

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL CONVECTION OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND AREAS
NORTH OF I-80. AFTER THE RECENT RAINS, AND NOSE OF DRY SLOT COMING
IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS, ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FOLLOW MOST CURRENT TRENDS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLUX
AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID SPREAD CONVECTION NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA INTO LASSEN COUNTY INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN FOR
MONDAY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND COVERAGE TO WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ROUTE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AGAIN. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND
FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF
50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 211729 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1029 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AS A RESULT OF CLEARING THIS MORNING FROM
THE SIERRA FRONT SOUTHWARD HAS ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS AT MID MORNING. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION AND INCOMING UPPER JET WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO PUSH
OFF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 395 AND
95 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS ARE GOING TO BE FASTER
TODAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUGGEST
STORMS WILL STILL HAVE DECENT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND ALSO INTO THE EVENING. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 211729 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1029 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AS A RESULT OF CLEARING THIS MORNING FROM
THE SIERRA FRONT SOUTHWARD HAS ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS AT MID MORNING. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION AND INCOMING UPPER JET WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO PUSH
OFF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 395 AND
95 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS ARE GOING TO BE FASTER
TODAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUGGEST
STORMS WILL STILL HAVE DECENT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND ALSO INTO THE EVENING. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 211550 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH MONSOON MOISTURE ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH LIES ALONG THE WEST COAST PLACING THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS COMING ONSHORE BETWEEN SANTA BARBARA
AND SAN DIEGO WHICH WILL INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES TROUGHING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...RIDGING FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WITH OUR AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
AND RIDGING TO OUR EAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY MAY
PROVIDE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPS...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE COMMON TODAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS
FAR WEST AS MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...STILL BELIEVE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENSEMBLE DATA /03Z SREF AND 00Z NAEFS/
BOOST CONFIDENCE THAT NO PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR WEST...JUST
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH CENTER WILL START OUT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
SHIFT OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EC MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT. I LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM WHAT I
INHERITED WITH 111 FRIDAY FOR LAS AND 110 ON SATURDAY. MONSOON
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY ABSENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAYBE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
WEAK WAVE AND MOVE IT UP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
THIS WOULD BRING A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. FOR NOW I BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE SUNDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BRING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ANY AREAS OTHER THAN
MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS I CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TODAY OR
TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 211550 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH MONSOON MOISTURE ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH LIES ALONG THE WEST COAST PLACING THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS COMING ONSHORE BETWEEN SANTA BARBARA
AND SAN DIEGO WHICH WILL INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES TROUGHING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...RIDGING FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WITH OUR AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
AND RIDGING TO OUR EAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY MAY
PROVIDE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPS...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE COMMON TODAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS
FAR WEST AS MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...STILL BELIEVE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENSEMBLE DATA /03Z SREF AND 00Z NAEFS/
BOOST CONFIDENCE THAT NO PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR WEST...JUST
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH CENTER WILL START OUT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
SHIFT OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EC MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT. I LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM WHAT I
INHERITED WITH 111 FRIDAY FOR LAS AND 110 ON SATURDAY. MONSOON
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY ABSENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAYBE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
WEAK WAVE AND MOVE IT UP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
THIS WOULD BRING A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. FOR NOW I BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE SUNDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BRING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ANY AREAS OTHER THAN
MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS I CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TODAY OR
TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KREV 211235
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 211235
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 211235
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 211235
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 211038
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 211038
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.

MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KLKN 211016
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO HUMBOLDT AND EXTREME WESTERN
ELKO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. DRIER MID WEEK WITH AFTERNOON WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON...THEN
OVER ELKO COUNTY FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...HOWEVER INCREASED SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN SOME SMALL HAIL MIXED IN WITH RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONGER
OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO HUMBOLDT AND
WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST STORMS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. ALSO ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT AND HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT INSISTING ON AN EXTENDED DRY
PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ITS POSITION NEAR THE
4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NUDGE
ON THE RESISTANT RIDGE PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND THEN SOAR BACK UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE 4-CORNERS HIGH
INTENSIFIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY SPREADING UP INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT STORMS IN SOUTHERN 457 AND
MOST OF FWZ 455 TODAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL TREND LOWER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS AS WELL. FOR NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY WET. OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM STORMS SHOULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL MIXED IN WITH RAIN. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SURFACE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NEVADA. WHILE GUSTS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...THE SPREAD OF ONGOING FIRES IS
A CONCERN...AND AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/92/92/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 211016
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO HUMBOLDT AND EXTREME WESTERN
ELKO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. DRIER MID WEEK WITH AFTERNOON WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON...THEN
OVER ELKO COUNTY FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...HOWEVER INCREASED SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN SOME SMALL HAIL MIXED IN WITH RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONGER
OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO HUMBOLDT AND
WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST STORMS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. ALSO ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT AND HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT INSISTING ON AN EXTENDED DRY
PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ITS POSITION NEAR THE
4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NUDGE
ON THE RESISTANT RIDGE PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND THEN SOAR BACK UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE 4-CORNERS HIGH
INTENSIFIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY SPREADING UP INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT STORMS IN SOUTHERN 457 AND
MOST OF FWZ 455 TODAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL TREND LOWER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS AS WELL. FOR NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY WET. OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM STORMS SHOULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL MIXED IN WITH RAIN. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SURFACE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NEVADA. WHILE GUSTS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...THE SPREAD OF ONGOING FIRES IS
A CONCERN...AND AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/92/92/96






000
FXUS65 KVEF 210950
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES TROUGHING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...RIDGING FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WITH OUR AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
AND RIDGING TO OUR EAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY MAY
PROVIDE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPS...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE COMMON TODAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS
FAR WEST AS MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...STILL BELIEVE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENSEMBLE DATA /03Z SREF AND 00Z NAEFS/
BOOST CONFIDENCE THAT NO PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR WEST...JUST
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH CENTER WILL START OUT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
SHIFT OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EC MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT. I LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM WHAT I
INHERITED WITH 111 FRIDAY FOR LAS AND 110 ON SATURDAY. MONSOON
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY ABSENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAYBE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
WEAK WAVE AND MOVE IT UP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
THIS WOULD BRING A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. FOR NOW I BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE SUNDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BRING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ANY AREAS OTHER THAN
MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS I CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TODAY OR
TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 210950
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES TROUGHING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...RIDGING FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WITH OUR AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
AND RIDGING TO OUR EAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY MAY
PROVIDE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPS...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE COMMON TODAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS
FAR WEST AS MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...STILL BELIEVE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENSEMBLE DATA /03Z SREF AND 00Z NAEFS/
BOOST CONFIDENCE THAT NO PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR WEST...JUST
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH CENTER WILL START OUT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
SHIFT OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EC MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT. I LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM WHAT I
INHERITED WITH 111 FRIDAY FOR LAS AND 110 ON SATURDAY. MONSOON
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY ABSENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAYBE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
WEAK WAVE AND MOVE IT UP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
THIS WOULD BRING A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. FOR NOW I BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE SUNDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BRING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ANY AREAS OTHER THAN
MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS I CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TODAY OR
TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HOT CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
215 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH BEING SHEARED APART
THIS AFTERNOON. A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CENTRAL SIERRA IS BEING ABSORBED INTO BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. MEANWHILE, SOME ENERGY IS BEING SHEARED OUT TO THE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH. AS FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM
BISHOP NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR IS SPREADING IN AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION. WILL MENTION JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN ESMERALDA COUNTY ADJACENT
TO MINERAL COUNTY.

THE REGION WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL GENERATE A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH LOOKS TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND
POTENTIALLY EXPANDING FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEVADA. RIGHT NOW, THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS MINIMAL SO FORECAST LIFTED INDICES BY WEDNESDAY REMAIN
POSITIVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND HOW HIGH WILL TEMPERATURES GO. THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AS THE GFS REMAINS THE
COOLER OF THE TWO MODELS BUT BOTH CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING READINGS NEAR 114 IN LAS VEGAS ON
FRIDAY...WHERE THE GFS IS AT 109/110. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF FORECAST AND IF THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A SOME EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATER THIS WEEK. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIFTING INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS MAY INCREASE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND MAY
HELP INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CURRENT
FORECAST NUMBERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE GOING
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY. LOOKING OUT TO THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING AN EASTERLY
WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MEXICO FRIDAY AND THE GET LIFTED
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS A
MAJORITY OF ANY MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THE
CENTER A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE FEATURE UP INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE MAY SEE A RETURN OF SOME
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN 150-210 DEGREES
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z-05Z THIS
EVENING. SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE WIND DIRECTION MAY GO MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KBIH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HOT CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
215 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH BEING SHEARED APART
THIS AFTERNOON. A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CENTRAL SIERRA IS BEING ABSORBED INTO BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. MEANWHILE, SOME ENERGY IS BEING SHEARED OUT TO THE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH. AS FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM
BISHOP NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR IS SPREADING IN AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION. WILL MENTION JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN ESMERALDA COUNTY ADJACENT
TO MINERAL COUNTY.

THE REGION WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL GENERATE A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH LOOKS TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND
POTENTIALLY EXPANDING FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEVADA. RIGHT NOW, THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS MINIMAL SO FORECAST LIFTED INDICES BY WEDNESDAY REMAIN
POSITIVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND HOW HIGH WILL TEMPERATURES GO. THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AS THE GFS REMAINS THE
COOLER OF THE TWO MODELS BUT BOTH CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING READINGS NEAR 114 IN LAS VEGAS ON
FRIDAY...WHERE THE GFS IS AT 109/110. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF FORECAST AND IF THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A SOME EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATER THIS WEEK. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIFTING INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS MAY INCREASE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND MAY
HELP INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CURRENT
FORECAST NUMBERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE GOING
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY. LOOKING OUT TO THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING AN EASTERLY
WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MEXICO FRIDAY AND THE GET LIFTED
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS A
MAJORITY OF ANY MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THE
CENTER A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE FEATURE UP INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE MAY SEE A RETURN OF SOME
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN 150-210 DEGREES
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z-05Z THIS
EVENING. SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE WIND DIRECTION MAY GO MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KBIH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KREV 202321 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
421 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE EVENING. FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS IN THE GLENBROOK AREA OF LAKE TAHOE,
THE FISH SPRINGS AREA IN DOUGLAS COUNTY EAST OF GARDNERVILLE, IN
SOUTH RENO. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER ONE INCH IN 30 MINUTES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN CAN CAUSE
ROCK SLIDES AND WASHOUTS OF ROADS. PLEASE BE CAREFUL DRIVING IN
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

POWERFUL STORMS IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA HAVE ALSO PRODUCED A LARGE
DUST STORM IN THE CARSON AND HUMBOLDT SINKS IN PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THE DUST STORM IS CROSSING INTERSTATE 80 WITH
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND VISIBILITY DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR INTERSTATE 80
WHERE VISIBILITY AND STRONG WINDS CAN CREATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON THE INTERSTATE.

DUST STORMS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO CREATE DEADLY
MULTIPLE VEHICLE PILEUPS IN THE PAST. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT
TO DRIVE ON INTERSTATE 80 EAST OF FERNLEY! PULL OFF THE
INTERSTATE AND FIND A SAFE LOCATION TO PARK YOUR VEHICLE UNTIL CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR IN MORE AREAS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.  UNDER THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS. TO THE SOUTH...HIGHER INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING HAS PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERN IS ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES
WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOIST SOILS MAY LEAD TO A FEW
MUD/ROCK SLIDES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT APPEARS THE
CLOUDS WITH DEFORMATION ZONE ARE ERODING. MAIN STORM THREATS ARE
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAIN CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE JET
SEGMENT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER TODAY`S 12Z RUNS
DON`T HAVE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE LAST TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IN ANY WAVES TRACKING ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE JET AXIS. LATEST MODELS ONLY SHOW A WAVE PASSING
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
PLACE THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTH OF I-80. THOUGH
HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-80. WITH THE JET MOVING NORTH
STORM MOTIONS WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND AND A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES. GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  BRONG

LONG TERM...

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. DID
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM STARTING SUNDAY FOR THE SIERRA
IN MONO COUNTY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS DESCRIBED IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLUX AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS. CURRENTLY WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL OF A JET STREAK FORMING OVER THE SIERRA. HOLDING OFF
ON RAISING WIND SPEEDS FURTHER FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ON
SUNDAY, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA
AND LONG VALLEY CALDERA RIM. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME FOR SATURDAY IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER.  BOYD

AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. COVERAGE
COULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY AND STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH LESSER COVERAGE SOUTH OF 50. FOR
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY THE PRIMARY THREATS TO AVIATION WILL BE
TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF TSTMS ALONG
WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS. LARGE HAIL IN AND NEAR TSTM
CORES IS ALSO A THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
VCTS FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY AND APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS LESS CHANCE OF TSTMS TUESDAY...AND MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. BY WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS IS CLOSE TO ZERO...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE STRONGER SFC WINDS BY THEN AND THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CROSS WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 202321 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
421 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE EVENING. FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS IN THE GLENBROOK AREA OF LAKE TAHOE,
THE FISH SPRINGS AREA IN DOUGLAS COUNTY EAST OF GARDNERVILLE, IN
SOUTH RENO. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER ONE INCH IN 30 MINUTES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN CAN CAUSE
ROCK SLIDES AND WASHOUTS OF ROADS. PLEASE BE CAREFUL DRIVING IN
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

POWERFUL STORMS IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA HAVE ALSO PRODUCED A LARGE
DUST STORM IN THE CARSON AND HUMBOLDT SINKS IN PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THE DUST STORM IS CROSSING INTERSTATE 80 WITH
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND VISIBILITY DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR INTERSTATE 80
WHERE VISIBILITY AND STRONG WINDS CAN CREATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON THE INTERSTATE.

DUST STORMS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO CREATE DEADLY
MULTIPLE VEHICLE PILEUPS IN THE PAST. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT
TO DRIVE ON INTERSTATE 80 EAST OF FERNLEY! PULL OFF THE
INTERSTATE AND FIND A SAFE LOCATION TO PARK YOUR VEHICLE UNTIL CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR IN MORE AREAS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.  UNDER THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS. TO THE SOUTH...HIGHER INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING HAS PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERN IS ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES
WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOIST SOILS MAY LEAD TO A FEW
MUD/ROCK SLIDES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT APPEARS THE
CLOUDS WITH DEFORMATION ZONE ARE ERODING. MAIN STORM THREATS ARE
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAIN CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE JET
SEGMENT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER TODAY`S 12Z RUNS
DON`T HAVE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE LAST TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IN ANY WAVES TRACKING ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE JET AXIS. LATEST MODELS ONLY SHOW A WAVE PASSING
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
PLACE THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTH OF I-80. THOUGH
HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-80. WITH THE JET MOVING NORTH
STORM MOTIONS WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND AND A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES. GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  BRONG

LONG TERM...

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. DID
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM STARTING SUNDAY FOR THE SIERRA
IN MONO COUNTY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS DESCRIBED IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLUX AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS. CURRENTLY WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL OF A JET STREAK FORMING OVER THE SIERRA. HOLDING OFF
ON RAISING WIND SPEEDS FURTHER FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ON
SUNDAY, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA
AND LONG VALLEY CALDERA RIM. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME FOR SATURDAY IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER.  BOYD

AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. COVERAGE
COULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY AND STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH LESSER COVERAGE SOUTH OF 50. FOR
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY THE PRIMARY THREATS TO AVIATION WILL BE
TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF TSTMS ALONG
WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS. LARGE HAIL IN AND NEAR TSTM
CORES IS ALSO A THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
VCTS FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY AND APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS LESS CHANCE OF TSTMS TUESDAY...AND MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. BY WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS IS CLOSE TO ZERO...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE STRONGER SFC WINDS BY THEN AND THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CROSS WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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