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000
FXUS65 KVEF 130623 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1018 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEK
IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACH COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ELONGATED
STREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE VORT MAXIMA
BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THEIR IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN MINIMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. 18Z GFS HAS COME
IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH, AND HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY.

MOS GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STARK DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH GFS MOS NOTICEABLY WARMER
THAN ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHICH TO PREFER AS COMPETING PROCESSES ARE AT PLAY. THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THIS MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY INCREASED MIXING AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. FOR NOW, THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO CAMPS IS BEST. AS SUCH CONTINUED TO DECREASE TEMPS BY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.

THREE OTHER NOTES...THOUGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO
TOMORROW, PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. SO IT
IS POSSIBLE MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST
TOMORROW. SECOND, GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS IN SNOW-
COVERED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE, MOS/GRIDDED TEMPS FOR RACHEL HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN 10-15 DEGREES TOO HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN HERE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS SNOW COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE IN THIS AREA. THIRD, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE CUT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ADVANCING TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LONG-ADVERTISED
CUTOFF LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
OUR REGION`S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE
STRONGER GENERAL APPEARANCE TO THE RIDGING...FOLLOWED SUIT WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE VERY
WARM IF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITIVE
BIAS IT HAS EXHIBITED RECENTLY.

FINALLY, A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF LOW MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY AND THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH MAY PROVE TOO MUCH
FOR THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL STORM TRACK, HOWEVER, AS
12Z/18Z GFS REMAIN(S) FASTER, WEAKER, DRIER, AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF (WHICH LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
DECENT WINTER STORM FOR THE SIERRA). 12Z CMC IS FASTER THAN THE EURO
BUT LOOKS MORE REMINISCENT IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE TO IT VERSUS THE
GFS. 06Z/18Z DGEX LOOK(S) VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SIMULATIONS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING/STRENGTH,
WITH MEANS ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND
UPSTREAM/SUBSEQUENT RIDGING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED POPS MUCH,
THOUGH DID SLOW THE TIMING OF THEM IN THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SUBTLE
SLOWING TREND OF THE GFS IN RECENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE A HUNCH THE GFS
IS EXHIBITING ITS FAST/WEAK BIAS WHEN SYSTEMS APPROACH BROAD
RIDGING, BUT THE EURO HAS ALSO BEEN A BIT TOO BULLISH MOST OF THIS
WINTER. THINKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS BEST AT THIS POINT. AS THE
GRIDS REFLECTED THIS WELL ALREADY, WAS NOT INCLINED TO CHANGE MUCH
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

ONE FINAL NOTE...GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. INTERESTINGLY, MEX MOS KEEPS MCCARRAN ABOVE 70
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WHEREAS EURO MOS ENDS THE 70+ STREAK ON
THURSDAY. MY INCLINATION IS THAT THE STREAK WILL END BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY, AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS. NOT A SURE THING, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 6 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 130623 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1018 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEK
IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACH COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ELONGATED
STREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE VORT MAXIMA
BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THEIR IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN MINIMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. 18Z GFS HAS COME
IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH, AND HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY.

MOS GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STARK DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH GFS MOS NOTICEABLY WARMER
THAN ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHICH TO PREFER AS COMPETING PROCESSES ARE AT PLAY. THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THIS MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY INCREASED MIXING AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. FOR NOW, THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO CAMPS IS BEST. AS SUCH CONTINUED TO DECREASE TEMPS BY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.

THREE OTHER NOTES...THOUGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO
TOMORROW, PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. SO IT
IS POSSIBLE MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST
TOMORROW. SECOND, GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS IN SNOW-
COVERED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE, MOS/GRIDDED TEMPS FOR RACHEL HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN 10-15 DEGREES TOO HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN HERE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS SNOW COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE IN THIS AREA. THIRD, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE CUT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ADVANCING TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LONG-ADVERTISED
CUTOFF LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
OUR REGION`S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE
STRONGER GENERAL APPEARANCE TO THE RIDGING...FOLLOWED SUIT WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE VERY
WARM IF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITIVE
BIAS IT HAS EXHIBITED RECENTLY.

FINALLY, A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF LOW MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY AND THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH MAY PROVE TOO MUCH
FOR THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL STORM TRACK, HOWEVER, AS
12Z/18Z GFS REMAIN(S) FASTER, WEAKER, DRIER, AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF (WHICH LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
DECENT WINTER STORM FOR THE SIERRA). 12Z CMC IS FASTER THAN THE EURO
BUT LOOKS MORE REMINISCENT IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE TO IT VERSUS THE
GFS. 06Z/18Z DGEX LOOK(S) VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SIMULATIONS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING/STRENGTH,
WITH MEANS ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND
UPSTREAM/SUBSEQUENT RIDGING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED POPS MUCH,
THOUGH DID SLOW THE TIMING OF THEM IN THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SUBTLE
SLOWING TREND OF THE GFS IN RECENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE A HUNCH THE GFS
IS EXHIBITING ITS FAST/WEAK BIAS WHEN SYSTEMS APPROACH BROAD
RIDGING, BUT THE EURO HAS ALSO BEEN A BIT TOO BULLISH MOST OF THIS
WINTER. THINKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS BEST AT THIS POINT. AS THE
GRIDS REFLECTED THIS WELL ALREADY, WAS NOT INCLINED TO CHANGE MUCH
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

ONE FINAL NOTE...GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. INTERESTINGLY, MEX MOS KEEPS MCCARRAN ABOVE 70
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WHEREAS EURO MOS ENDS THE 70+ STREAK ON
THURSDAY. MY INCLINATION IS THAT THE STREAK WILL END BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY, AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS. NOT A SURE THING, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 6 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 130623 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1018 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEK
IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACH COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ELONGATED
STREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE VORT MAXIMA
BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THEIR IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN MINIMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. 18Z GFS HAS COME
IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH, AND HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY.

MOS GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STARK DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH GFS MOS NOTICEABLY WARMER
THAN ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHICH TO PREFER AS COMPETING PROCESSES ARE AT PLAY. THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THIS MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY INCREASED MIXING AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. FOR NOW, THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO CAMPS IS BEST. AS SUCH CONTINUED TO DECREASE TEMPS BY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.

THREE OTHER NOTES...THOUGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO
TOMORROW, PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. SO IT
IS POSSIBLE MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST
TOMORROW. SECOND, GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS IN SNOW-
COVERED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE, MOS/GRIDDED TEMPS FOR RACHEL HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN 10-15 DEGREES TOO HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN HERE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS SNOW COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE IN THIS AREA. THIRD, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE CUT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ADVANCING TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LONG-ADVERTISED
CUTOFF LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
OUR REGION`S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE
STRONGER GENERAL APPEARANCE TO THE RIDGING...FOLLOWED SUIT WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE VERY
WARM IF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITIVE
BIAS IT HAS EXHIBITED RECENTLY.

FINALLY, A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF LOW MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY AND THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH MAY PROVE TOO MUCH
FOR THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL STORM TRACK, HOWEVER, AS
12Z/18Z GFS REMAIN(S) FASTER, WEAKER, DRIER, AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF (WHICH LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
DECENT WINTER STORM FOR THE SIERRA). 12Z CMC IS FASTER THAN THE EURO
BUT LOOKS MORE REMINISCENT IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE TO IT VERSUS THE
GFS. 06Z/18Z DGEX LOOK(S) VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SIMULATIONS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING/STRENGTH,
WITH MEANS ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND
UPSTREAM/SUBSEQUENT RIDGING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED POPS MUCH,
THOUGH DID SLOW THE TIMING OF THEM IN THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SUBTLE
SLOWING TREND OF THE GFS IN RECENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE A HUNCH THE GFS
IS EXHIBITING ITS FAST/WEAK BIAS WHEN SYSTEMS APPROACH BROAD
RIDGING, BUT THE EURO HAS ALSO BEEN A BIT TOO BULLISH MOST OF THIS
WINTER. THINKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS BEST AT THIS POINT. AS THE
GRIDS REFLECTED THIS WELL ALREADY, WAS NOT INCLINED TO CHANGE MUCH
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

ONE FINAL NOTE...GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. INTERESTINGLY, MEX MOS KEEPS MCCARRAN ABOVE 70
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WHEREAS EURO MOS ENDS THE 70+ STREAK ON
THURSDAY. MY INCLINATION IS THAT THE STREAK WILL END BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY, AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS. NOT A SURE THING, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 6 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 122301
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
301 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEK
IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACH COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ELONGATED
STREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE VORT MAXIMA
BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THEIR IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN MINIMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. 18Z GFS HAS COME
IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH, AND HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY.

MOS GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STARK DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH GFS MOS NOTICEABLY WARMER
THAN ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHICH TO PREFER AS COMPETING PROCESSES ARE AT PLAY. THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THIS MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY INCREASED MIXING AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. FOR NOW, THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO CAMPS IS BEST. AS SUCH CONTINUED TO DECREASE TEMPS BY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.

THREE OTHER NOTES...THOUGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO
TOMORROW, PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. SO IT
IS POSSIBLE MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST
TOMORROW. SECOND, GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS IN SNOW-
COVERED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE, MOS/GRIDDED TEMPS FOR RACHEL HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN 10-15 DEGREES TOO HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN HERE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS SNOW COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE IN THIS AREA. THIRD, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE CUT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ADVANCING TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LONG-ADVERTISED
CUTOFF LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
OUR REGION`S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE
STRONGER GENERAL APPEARANCE TO THE RIDGING...FOLLOWED SUIT WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE VERY
WARM IF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITIVE
BIAS IT HAS EXHIBITED RECENTLY.

FINALLY, A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF LOW MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY AND THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH MAY PROVE TOO MUCH
FOR THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL STORM TRACK, HOWEVER, AS
12Z/18Z GFS REMAIN(S) FASTER, WEAKER, DRIER, AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF (WHICH LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
DECENT WINTER STORM FOR THE SIERRA). 12Z CMC IS FASTER THAN THE EURO
BUT LOOKS MORE REMINISCENT IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE TO IT VERSUS THE
GFS. 06Z/18Z DGEX LOOK(S) VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SIMULATIONS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING/STRENGTH,
WITH MEANS ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND
UPSTREAM/SUBSEQUENT RIDGING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED POPS MUCH,
THOUGH DID SLOW THE TIMING OF THEM IN THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SUBTLE
SLOWING TREND OF THE GFS IN RECENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE A HUNCH THE GFS
IS EXHIBITING ITS FAST/WEAK BIAS WHEN SYSTEMS APPROACH BROAD
RIDGING, BUT THE EURO HAS ALSO BEEN A BIT TOO BULLISH MOST OF THIS
WINTER. THINKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS BEST AT THIS POINT. AS THE
GRIDS REFLECTED THIS WELL ALREADY, WAS NOT INCLINED TO CHANGE MUCH
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

ONE FINAL NOTE...GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. INTERESTINGLY, MEX MOS KEEPS MCCARRAN ABOVE 70
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WHEREAS EURO MOS ENDS THE 70+ STREAK ON
THURSDAY. MY INCLINATION IS THAT THE STREAK WILL END BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY, AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS. NOT A SURE THING, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 6 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 122301
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
301 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEK
IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACH COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ELONGATED
STREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE VORT MAXIMA
BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THEIR IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN MINIMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. 18Z GFS HAS COME
IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH, AND HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY.

MOS GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STARK DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH GFS MOS NOTICEABLY WARMER
THAN ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHICH TO PREFER AS COMPETING PROCESSES ARE AT PLAY. THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THIS MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY INCREASED MIXING AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. FOR NOW, THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO CAMPS IS BEST. AS SUCH CONTINUED TO DECREASE TEMPS BY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.

THREE OTHER NOTES...THOUGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO
TOMORROW, PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. SO IT
IS POSSIBLE MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST
TOMORROW. SECOND, GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS IN SNOW-
COVERED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE, MOS/GRIDDED TEMPS FOR RACHEL HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN 10-15 DEGREES TOO HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN HERE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS SNOW COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE IN THIS AREA. THIRD, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE CUT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ADVANCING TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LONG-ADVERTISED
CUTOFF LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
OUR REGION`S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE
STRONGER GENERAL APPEARANCE TO THE RIDGING...FOLLOWED SUIT WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE VERY
WARM IF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITIVE
BIAS IT HAS EXHIBITED RECENTLY.

FINALLY, A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF LOW MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY AND THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH MAY PROVE TOO MUCH
FOR THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL STORM TRACK, HOWEVER, AS
12Z/18Z GFS REMAIN(S) FASTER, WEAKER, DRIER, AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF (WHICH LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
DECENT WINTER STORM FOR THE SIERRA). 12Z CMC IS FASTER THAN THE EURO
BUT LOOKS MORE REMINISCENT IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE TO IT VERSUS THE
GFS. 06Z/18Z DGEX LOOK(S) VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SIMULATIONS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING/STRENGTH,
WITH MEANS ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND
UPSTREAM/SUBSEQUENT RIDGING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED POPS MUCH,
THOUGH DID SLOW THE TIMING OF THEM IN THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SUBTLE
SLOWING TREND OF THE GFS IN RECENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE A HUNCH THE GFS
IS EXHIBITING ITS FAST/WEAK BIAS WHEN SYSTEMS APPROACH BROAD
RIDGING, BUT THE EURO HAS ALSO BEEN A BIT TOO BULLISH MOST OF THIS
WINTER. THINKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS BEST AT THIS POINT. AS THE
GRIDS REFLECTED THIS WELL ALREADY, WAS NOT INCLINED TO CHANGE MUCH
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

ONE FINAL NOTE...GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. INTERESTINGLY, MEX MOS KEEPS MCCARRAN ABOVE 70
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WHEREAS EURO MOS ENDS THE 70+ STREAK ON
THURSDAY. MY INCLINATION IS THAT THE STREAK WILL END BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY, AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS. NOT A SURE THING, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 6 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 122301
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
301 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEK
IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACH COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ELONGATED
STREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE VORT MAXIMA
BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THEIR IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN MINIMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. 18Z GFS HAS COME
IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH, AND HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY.

MOS GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STARK DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH GFS MOS NOTICEABLY WARMER
THAN ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHICH TO PREFER AS COMPETING PROCESSES ARE AT PLAY. THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THIS MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY INCREASED MIXING AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. FOR NOW, THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO CAMPS IS BEST. AS SUCH CONTINUED TO DECREASE TEMPS BY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.

THREE OTHER NOTES...THOUGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO
TOMORROW, PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. SO IT
IS POSSIBLE MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST
TOMORROW. SECOND, GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS IN SNOW-
COVERED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE, MOS/GRIDDED TEMPS FOR RACHEL HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN 10-15 DEGREES TOO HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN HERE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS SNOW COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE IN THIS AREA. THIRD, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE CUT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ADVANCING TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LONG-ADVERTISED
CUTOFF LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
OUR REGION`S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE
STRONGER GENERAL APPEARANCE TO THE RIDGING...FOLLOWED SUIT WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE VERY
WARM IF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSITIVE
BIAS IT HAS EXHIBITED RECENTLY.

FINALLY, A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF LOW MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY AND THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH MAY PROVE TOO MUCH
FOR THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL STORM TRACK, HOWEVER, AS
12Z/18Z GFS REMAIN(S) FASTER, WEAKER, DRIER, AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF (WHICH LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
DECENT WINTER STORM FOR THE SIERRA). 12Z CMC IS FASTER THAN THE EURO
BUT LOOKS MORE REMINISCENT IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE TO IT VERSUS THE
GFS. 06Z/18Z DGEX LOOK(S) VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SIMULATIONS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING/STRENGTH,
WITH MEANS ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND
UPSTREAM/SUBSEQUENT RIDGING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED POPS MUCH,
THOUGH DID SLOW THE TIMING OF THEM IN THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SUBTLE
SLOWING TREND OF THE GFS IN RECENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE A HUNCH THE GFS
IS EXHIBITING ITS FAST/WEAK BIAS WHEN SYSTEMS APPROACH BROAD
RIDGING, BUT THE EURO HAS ALSO BEEN A BIT TOO BULLISH MOST OF THIS
WINTER. THINKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS BEST AT THIS POINT. AS THE
GRIDS REFLECTED THIS WELL ALREADY, WAS NOT INCLINED TO CHANGE MUCH
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

ONE FINAL NOTE...GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. INTERESTINGLY, MEX MOS KEEPS MCCARRAN ABOVE 70
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WHEREAS EURO MOS ENDS THE 70+ STREAK ON
THURSDAY. MY INCLINATION IS THAT THE STREAK WILL END BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY, AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS. NOT A SURE THING, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 6 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KLKN 122158
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
158 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRUGGLING TO FIND
DIFFERENT WAYS TO SAY THE SAME THING. RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER. INVERSIONS IN THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS PREVENTING
MUCH WARM UP EVEN WITH FULL SUN. SNOW FREE VALLEYS WARMER, EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
SOME LOWER VALLEY RAINS AND HIGHER VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS SNOWS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDER SWATH. DRY AGAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE DEPICTING
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S
TO MID 50S. WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS MODEL IS
ABOUT NINE HOURS FASTER THAN THE EUROPEAN ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWS 40S TO LOW 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.
&&

$$

98/98/86



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 122158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION PERIODICALLY. A MODERATE WINTER
STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY
WINDS, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS ALOFT LIGHT AND THE PERIODIC CLOUD
COVER RECORDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THREATENED AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY
MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN PUSHING A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. A BIGGER EFFECT
MAY BE THE LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SHALLOW FRONT
LIMITING MIXING FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ONLY MINOR, LOWER IMPACT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
INCLUDING DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 AND ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395, AND EASING DOWN HIGHS 2 TO 5 DEGREES FOR MANY SPOTS
ON TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR RENO AND FALLON TUESDAY,
DON`T BELIEVE MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH ONLY 10-15 KTS AT 700
MB TO REALIZE UPPER 60S. THEREFORE, I HAVE EASED DOWN MANY VALLEY
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, AREAS NEAR LARGER LAKES (TAHOE, WALKER, PYRAMID) WILL ALSO
FIGHT LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESTRICT HIGHS
EVEN FURTHER.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW THAN
THE GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND END TIMING
(GFS: EARLY THURSDAY, ECMWF: THURSDAY NIGHT) BUT MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEDNESDAY NIGHT START. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT WE WILL SEE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
SIERRA SNOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER/HOON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUD DECKS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT AT RIDGE LEVEL. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KLKN 122158
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
158 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRUGGLING TO FIND
DIFFERENT WAYS TO SAY THE SAME THING. RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER. INVERSIONS IN THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS PREVENTING
MUCH WARM UP EVEN WITH FULL SUN. SNOW FREE VALLEYS WARMER, EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
SOME LOWER VALLEY RAINS AND HIGHER VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS SNOWS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDER SWATH. DRY AGAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE DEPICTING
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S
TO MID 50S. WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS MODEL IS
ABOUT NINE HOURS FASTER THAN THE EUROPEAN ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWS 40S TO LOW 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.
&&

$$

98/98/86




000
FXUS65 KREV 122158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION PERIODICALLY. A MODERATE WINTER
STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY
WINDS, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS ALOFT LIGHT AND THE PERIODIC CLOUD
COVER RECORDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THREATENED AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY
MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN PUSHING A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. A BIGGER EFFECT
MAY BE THE LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SHALLOW FRONT
LIMITING MIXING FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ONLY MINOR, LOWER IMPACT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
INCLUDING DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 AND ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395, AND EASING DOWN HIGHS 2 TO 5 DEGREES FOR MANY SPOTS
ON TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR RENO AND FALLON TUESDAY,
DON`T BELIEVE MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH ONLY 10-15 KTS AT 700
MB TO REALIZE UPPER 60S. THEREFORE, I HAVE EASED DOWN MANY VALLEY
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, AREAS NEAR LARGER LAKES (TAHOE, WALKER, PYRAMID) WILL ALSO
FIGHT LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESTRICT HIGHS
EVEN FURTHER.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW THAN
THE GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND END TIMING
(GFS: EARLY THURSDAY, ECMWF: THURSDAY NIGHT) BUT MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEDNESDAY NIGHT START. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT WE WILL SEE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
SIERRA SNOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER/HOON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUD DECKS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT AT RIDGE LEVEL. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 121731
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
931 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER BANNER WEATHER DAY FOR OUR AREA. TEMPS ARE RUNNING RIGHT
AROUND YESTERDAY`S VALUES AT THIS TIME. KVEF 12Z SOUNDING LOOKS
EERILY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S AS WELL, EXCEPT FOR A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS AS VORT MAXIMA APPROACH THE FAR
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GRIDS ARE HANDLING ALL OF
THIS WELL, AND NO UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED.

BRIEF LOOK AT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS MAINTAINS A WEAKER, FASTER, DRIER, FARTHER NORTH
SOLUTION THAN THE MORE BULLISH 00Z ECMWF. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS CONTINUITY. MORE ELABORATION TO COME IN
THIS AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
130 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS WE WILL SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DOWN ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES. THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE FELT DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. FOR
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN. THE GRADIENT FLOPS OVER TO A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...SO
WINDS WILL DECREASE. THE RIDGE THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS NOTED
EARLIER...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AT THIS
POINT...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PASS THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES COULD BEGIN IN THE
SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. IF THE DEEPER/SLOWER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY BETTER...PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
PERHAPS THURSDAY NIGHT OR BEYOND...AND WOULD ALSO SPREAD SOUTH TO
INCLUDE THE MOJAVE DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY IF THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 121053
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION PERIODICALLY. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND IT WILL REESTABLISH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND KEEP THE STORM TRACK DEFLECTED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
LOWER AND BELOW RECORDS TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SHIFT TO A
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST ON SUNDAY/MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ELW

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT
TO CONTINUE RAISING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WED-THU. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN NEVADA.

WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE
LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING OF THE
STORM, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING
WINDS, SIERRA SNOW, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUD DECKS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT AT
RIDGE LEVEL. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KLKN 121028
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INVERSIONS
CONTINUING IN THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE ON SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN NV NEAR THE
OREGON/IDAHO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON MONDAY
PUSHING MOISTURE FAR TO THE NORTH OF NV FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS65 KVEF 120929
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
130 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS WE WILL SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DOWN ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES. THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE FELT DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. FOR
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN. THE GRADIENT FLOPS OVER TO A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...SO
WINDS WILL DECREASE. THE RIDGE THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS NOTED
EARLIER...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AT THIS
POINT...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PASS THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES COULD BEGIN IN THE
SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. IF THE DEEPER/SLOWER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY BETTER...PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
PERHAPS THURSDAY NIGHT OR BEYOND...AND WOULD ALSO SPREAD SOUTH TO
INCLUDE THE MOJAVE DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY IF THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 120929
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
130 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS WE WILL SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DOWN ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES. THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE FELT DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. FOR
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN. THE GRADIENT FLOPS OVER TO A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...SO
WINDS WILL DECREASE. THE RIDGE THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS NOTED
EARLIER...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AT THIS
POINT...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PASS THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES COULD BEGIN IN THE
SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. IF THE DEEPER/SLOWER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY BETTER...PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
PERHAPS THURSDAY NIGHT OR BEYOND...AND WOULD ALSO SPREAD SOUTH TO
INCLUDE THE MOJAVE DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY IF THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 120554 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 120554 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 120554 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 112349
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
349 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 112349
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
349 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 112349
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
349 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 112330
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS,
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED LITTLE SO
CHANGES WERE VERY FEW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
RECORDS MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND HAVE CUT BACK
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TOMORROW GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH A LITTLE
COOLING ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, RECORDS
AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH IN MOST PLACES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES POP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
REGARD TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT JUST MAY ARRIVE 6-12 HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION IS CHOSEN.

BACKING UP TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY, I
EASED THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES (BELOW MUCH OF GUIDANCE) FOR MANY
VALLEYS AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESTRICT MIXING.
ALSO, MOS OFTEN OVERDOES WINTER HIGHS WITH STRONG RIDGES OVERHEAD
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT TURNS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN VALLEY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5-9 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. IF MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED, THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS IN SOME AREAS MAY BE OVERSHOOTING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES SO CONSIDER IT A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. HIGHS FALL UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER TUESDAY WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT AND CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH THE 00/12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z GFS IN THIS REGARD AS THE FORMER IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.

ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WITH
THE ECMWF STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE UPPER LOW VERSUS AN
ELONGATED, MORE DISJOINTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE 12Z GFS. THE 18Z GFS
HAS LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IT IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL
AWAIT MODEL CLARITY. WHILE QPF MAY BE AFFECTED SUBSTANTIALLY,
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE FROPA SO I HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POP FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA, RESPECTIVELY. IN ANY
CASE, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE WITH
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS OVER
RIDGES. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 112330
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS,
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED LITTLE SO
CHANGES WERE VERY FEW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
RECORDS MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND HAVE CUT BACK
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TOMORROW GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH A LITTLE
COOLING ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, RECORDS
AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH IN MOST PLACES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES POP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
REGARD TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT JUST MAY ARRIVE 6-12 HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION IS CHOSEN.

BACKING UP TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY, I
EASED THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES (BELOW MUCH OF GUIDANCE) FOR MANY
VALLEYS AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESTRICT MIXING.
ALSO, MOS OFTEN OVERDOES WINTER HIGHS WITH STRONG RIDGES OVERHEAD
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT TURNS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN VALLEY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5-9 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. IF MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED, THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS IN SOME AREAS MAY BE OVERSHOOTING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES SO CONSIDER IT A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. HIGHS FALL UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER TUESDAY WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT AND CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH THE 00/12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z GFS IN THIS REGARD AS THE FORMER IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.

ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WITH
THE ECMWF STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE UPPER LOW VERSUS AN
ELONGATED, MORE DISJOINTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE 12Z GFS. THE 18Z GFS
HAS LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IT IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL
AWAIT MODEL CLARITY. WHILE QPF MAY BE AFFECTED SUBSTANTIALLY,
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE FROPA SO I HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POP FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA, RESPECTIVELY. IN ANY
CASE, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE WITH
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS OVER
RIDGES. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 112330
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS,
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED LITTLE SO
CHANGES WERE VERY FEW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
RECORDS MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND HAVE CUT BACK
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TOMORROW GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH A LITTLE
COOLING ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, RECORDS
AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH IN MOST PLACES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES POP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
REGARD TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT JUST MAY ARRIVE 6-12 HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION IS CHOSEN.

BACKING UP TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY, I
EASED THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES (BELOW MUCH OF GUIDANCE) FOR MANY
VALLEYS AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESTRICT MIXING.
ALSO, MOS OFTEN OVERDOES WINTER HIGHS WITH STRONG RIDGES OVERHEAD
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT TURNS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN VALLEY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5-9 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. IF MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED, THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS IN SOME AREAS MAY BE OVERSHOOTING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES SO CONSIDER IT A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. HIGHS FALL UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER TUESDAY WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT AND CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH THE 00/12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z GFS IN THIS REGARD AS THE FORMER IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.

ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WITH
THE ECMWF STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE UPPER LOW VERSUS AN
ELONGATED, MORE DISJOINTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE 12Z GFS. THE 18Z GFS
HAS LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IT IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL
AWAIT MODEL CLARITY. WHILE QPF MAY BE AFFECTED SUBSTANTIALLY,
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE FROPA SO I HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POP FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA, RESPECTIVELY. IN ANY
CASE, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE WITH
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS OVER
RIDGES. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 112330
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS,
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED LITTLE SO
CHANGES WERE VERY FEW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
RECORDS MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND HAVE CUT BACK
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TOMORROW GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH A LITTLE
COOLING ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, RECORDS
AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH IN MOST PLACES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES POP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
REGARD TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT JUST MAY ARRIVE 6-12 HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION IS CHOSEN.

BACKING UP TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY, I
EASED THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES (BELOW MUCH OF GUIDANCE) FOR MANY
VALLEYS AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESTRICT MIXING.
ALSO, MOS OFTEN OVERDOES WINTER HIGHS WITH STRONG RIDGES OVERHEAD
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT TURNS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN VALLEY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5-9 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. IF MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED, THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS IN SOME AREAS MAY BE OVERSHOOTING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES SO CONSIDER IT A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. HIGHS FALL UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER TUESDAY WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT AND CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH THE 00/12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z GFS IN THIS REGARD AS THE FORMER IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.

ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WITH
THE ECMWF STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE UPPER LOW VERSUS AN
ELONGATED, MORE DISJOINTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE 12Z GFS. THE 18Z GFS
HAS LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IT IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL
AWAIT MODEL CLARITY. WHILE QPF MAY BE AFFECTED SUBSTANTIALLY,
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE FROPA SO I HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POP FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA, RESPECTIVELY. IN ANY
CASE, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE WITH
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS OVER
RIDGES. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 112330
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS,
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED LITTLE SO
CHANGES WERE VERY FEW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
RECORDS MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND HAVE CUT BACK
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TOMORROW GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH A LITTLE
COOLING ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, RECORDS
AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH IN MOST PLACES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES POP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
REGARD TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT JUST MAY ARRIVE 6-12 HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION IS CHOSEN.

BACKING UP TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY, I
EASED THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES (BELOW MUCH OF GUIDANCE) FOR MANY
VALLEYS AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESTRICT MIXING.
ALSO, MOS OFTEN OVERDOES WINTER HIGHS WITH STRONG RIDGES OVERHEAD
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT TURNS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN VALLEY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5-9 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. IF MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED, THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS IN SOME AREAS MAY BE OVERSHOOTING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES SO CONSIDER IT A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. HIGHS FALL UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER TUESDAY WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT AND CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH THE 00/12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z GFS IN THIS REGARD AS THE FORMER IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.

ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WITH
THE ECMWF STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE UPPER LOW VERSUS AN
ELONGATED, MORE DISJOINTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE 12Z GFS. THE 18Z GFS
HAS LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IT IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL
AWAIT MODEL CLARITY. WHILE QPF MAY BE AFFECTED SUBSTANTIALLY,
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE FROPA SO I HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POP FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA, RESPECTIVELY. IN ANY
CASE, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE WITH
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS OVER
RIDGES. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KLKN 112202
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. FREEZING
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STRIKING NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH ELKO AND LAS VEGAS. FOG WAS A LITTLE MORE PATCHY
THIS MORNING AND BURNED OFF BETWEEN 9AM AND 10AM. THERE WERE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG REPORTED IN THE SPRING CREEK AREA. IR
SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT DEEP FOG BANK ACROSS THE
SALT FLATS IN UTAH SPREADING TO WEST OF WENDOVER...BOUNDED BY THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TOANO AND GOSHUTE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN NEVADA.
WENDOVER HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CEILING ALL DAY. THE CURRENT LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PERIODICALLY VERY DIRTY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BUT HAVE PUSHED FORWARD THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER ABOUT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN FOG...THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...THE AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND
SUBSEQUENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIMITED MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
NIGHTTIME RADIATION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CRAWL UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA...AND ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
AREAS TO THE WEST WITH LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. AS THE SNOWPACK
SLOWLY DISSOLVES...FREEZING FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AT LEAST ONE MORE MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT PROPOSING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO BRUSH THE STATE SATURDAY.
THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PROPOSED AS DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS THAT SHOULD HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GET A FEW DEGREES BOOST BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL.

SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT PROPOSING A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TO BRUSH THE STATE...THIS ONE A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS ERUPTING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AGAIN...SOME
BETTER MIXING IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD RESULT TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON
DEEPENING WESTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PUSHING RIDGE OUT AND ALLOWING SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO ENTER
THE REGION. MODELS, AT THIS TIME, DO NOT INDICATE AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OR EVEN A SUBTROPICAL FETCH, BUT RATHER MARITIME POLAR
AIRMASS MOISTURE. HENCE, HIGHEST POPS IN TWO WEEKS ON SCHEDULE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AFTER PREVIOUS RIDGING, SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AND BY TUESDAY COULD
SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 60. THEN COLD FRONT AND REALITY RETURNS. BUT INITIAL PRECIP
COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH ONLY MOUNTAIN SNOWS TURNING TO SNOW
THURSDAY. A BIT BREEZY, TOO, AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH LOCAL
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KEEP KWMC...KELY...AND KTPH FOG FREE. KEKO
WITH EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GET FOG AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS. WILL LIKELY
DROP TO AT LEAST IFR WITH LIFR A POSSIBILITY. LAST, -SN IS
POSSIBLE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS AT KEKO. NO ACCUMULATION ON
RUNWAYS EXPECTED BUT COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITY AND OBSCURE
MOUNTAIN TOPS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/98/98




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111753
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY IS TAKING SHAPE IN OUR AREA. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE................SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111753
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY IS TAKING SHAPE IN OUR AREA. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE................SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 111753
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY IS TAKING SHAPE IN OUR AREA. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE................SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 111713
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
913 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...RECENT HISTORY HAS PATCHY FOG IN THE KEKO AREA
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING FROM IT. CURRENT 18Z TAF HAS
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY FROM 14Z TO 17Z. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. JUST COULD ADD TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
FROM LOCALIZED FOG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 302 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 111102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 111102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91



000
FXUS65 KLKN 111102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91




000
FXUS65 KREV 111046
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING TODAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AS WELL AS IMPROVED
MIXING ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS NEVADA, SO REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN/WASHOE COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELW

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY
AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND IMPROVE MIXING.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING A
COLDER AND WET TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW THIS TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSE LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THESE DETAILS. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ARRIVING WITH THE TROUGH, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS BE PREPARED FOR COLDER AND WET CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY FZFG THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY AND KTRK THIS MORNING. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 111046
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING TODAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AS WELL AS IMPROVED
MIXING ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS NEVADA, SO REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN/WASHOE COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELW

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY
AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND IMPROVE MIXING.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING A
COLDER AND WET TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW THIS TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSE LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THESE DETAILS. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ARRIVING WITH THE TROUGH, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS BE PREPARED FOR COLDER AND WET CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY FZFG THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY AND KTRK THIS MORNING. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 111046
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING TODAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AS WELL AS IMPROVED
MIXING ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS NEVADA, SO REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN/WASHOE COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELW

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY
AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND IMPROVE MIXING.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING A
COLDER AND WET TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW THIS TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSE LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THESE DETAILS. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ARRIVING WITH THE TROUGH, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS BE PREPARED FOR COLDER AND WET CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY FZFG THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY AND KTRK THIS MORNING. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 111046
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING TODAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AS WELL AS IMPROVED
MIXING ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS NEVADA, SO REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN/WASHOE COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELW

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY
AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND IMPROVE MIXING.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING A
COLDER AND WET TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW THIS TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSE LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THESE DETAILS. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ARRIVING WITH THE TROUGH, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS BE PREPARED FOR COLDER AND WET CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY FZFG THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY AND KTRK THIS MORNING. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 111046
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING TODAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AS WELL AS IMPROVED
MIXING ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS NEVADA, SO REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN/WASHOE COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELW

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY
AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND IMPROVE MIXING.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING A
COLDER AND WET TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW THIS TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSE LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THESE DETAILS. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ARRIVING WITH THE TROUGH, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS BE PREPARED FOR COLDER AND WET CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY FZFG THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY AND KTRK THIS MORNING. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




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