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000
FXUS65 KLKN 181030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
330 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION AS LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM
ZERO TO MINUS 2 OVER CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLAND AREAS. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA
UP TO AND INCLUDING THE RUBY MOUNTAIN RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON AS WARM MOIST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV WITH PLEASANT SPRING TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER EASTERN NV FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODELS DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GFS/GEM HOLDING ONTO SOME TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHEAST NV WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INHERITED
FORECAST FOLLOWED THE WETTER GFS/GEM AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AS
ECMWF IS THE ODD FELLOW OUT FOR NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
SYNC THURSDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM SHOWING RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NRN CA SPREADING SOME
MOISTURE OVER NRN NV. INHERITED FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE
WETTER ECMWF AND WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE
AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KEKO/KELY TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/91/91






000
FXUS65 KLKN 181030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
330 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION AS LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM
ZERO TO MINUS 2 OVER CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLAND AREAS. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA
UP TO AND INCLUDING THE RUBY MOUNTAIN RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON AS WARM MOIST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV WITH PLEASANT SPRING TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER EASTERN NV FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODELS DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GFS/GEM HOLDING ONTO SOME TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHEAST NV WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INHERITED
FORECAST FOLLOWED THE WETTER GFS/GEM AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AS
ECMWF IS THE ODD FELLOW OUT FOR NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
SYNC THURSDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM SHOWING RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NRN CA SPREADING SOME
MOISTURE OVER NRN NV. INHERITED FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE
WETTER ECMWF AND WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE
AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KEKO/KELY TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/91/91




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000
FXUS65 KVEF 181000
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CALIFORNIA AND THE HIGH DESERTS. A
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL USHER IN STRONG WINDS TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

TODAY HAS THE MAKINGS OF AN INTERESTING FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ALLOWED A MODEST MARINE
INFLUENCE TO CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. DEW POINTS IN THIS AREA ARE WELL INTO THE MID
40S. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE PICKING UP SPEED AS THE
UPPER LEVEL APPROACHES...WE EXPECT EVEN MORE MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS IS LEADING TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS
AREA. WESTERN INYO COUNTY WILL ALSO BE AN AREA THAT WILL SEE
INCREASED ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND OUR LOCAL CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ALSO ARE INDICATING ACTIVITY AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
LINCOLN...CENTRAL NYE AND MOHAVE COUNTIES MAY ALSO SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY INCREASE. HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT LATER IN THE
DAY AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND. SATURDAY...THE LOW
WILL STILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE WANING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

TRANSIENT RIDGING AND A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS TREND TOOL INDICATES THAT THIS THROUGH HAS
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THAT
SAID ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE
EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS A BROAD-BRUSHED
APPROACH WAS TAKEN WITH THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST (GUSTS OVER 40
MPH)...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN WORDING FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WHICH CAN BE REFINED AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT. THESE
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
CURRENTLY MODELS ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COOL CONDITIONS TO NEAR OR EVEN JUST BELOW
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS OFF MORE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY OR
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR MCCARRAN...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (SPRING AND SHEEP MOUNTAINS)
WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A OVERCAST WILL PREVAIL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NW ARIZONA...AND SE CALIFORNIA...
CUMULUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10-15 KFT THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A REPEAT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

LERICOS/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










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000
FXUS65 KREV 180902
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
202 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A SPLIT
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHIFTING A COOL FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN CA/NV EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS DECENT FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT HELPING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THIS MORNING. STILL QUESTIONABLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING, BUT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO WARRANT KEEPING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. A DECENT DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL END SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD GENERATE THE DEEPER CONVECTION
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DRAWBACK COULD BE CLOUD COVER STIFLING
DAYTIME HEATING AND LIMITING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, BUT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THIS.

TROUGH EXITS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WARMING AFTER THE SLIGHT COOL DOWN TODAY. DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION, BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN
MONO COUNTY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERATED BY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. WEAK RIDGING RETURNS
SUNDAY AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THROUGH
MONO COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH WARMING ALOFT, IT`S
LIKELY THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. DJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS A COUPLE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE WEST COAST.  THE FIRST ARRIVES
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SECOND SYSTEM POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR MONDAY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE INITIAL IMPACT AS A COLD TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 60 MPH.  AS
THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REACH THE SIERRA TUESDAY MORNING, SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA PASSES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO
WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY, BUT THINK THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, AFTERNOON HIGHS
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR THE SIERRA WITH 50S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA.

FOR MID WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW A COUPLE
SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH OREGON WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

NEXT SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE MAY ARRIVE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RATHER COLD LOW SETS UP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS
WOULD DIRECT THE JET STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH A DAY OR
TWO OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.  SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AT
5500-7000 FEET WITH A SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL THROUGH 18Z. THE LOW TO THE SOUTH
WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KTRK-KLOL AFTER 18Z.
KMMH HAS A 25% CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM, WHILE
THE CHANCE AT THE TAHOE AND WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS IS 10-15%.
BRONG


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 180429 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
929 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. AN EARLIER
UPDATE WAS DONE TO START THUNDERSTORMS A BIT EARLIER AS HEATING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AHEAD OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WAS
SUFFICIENT TO INTERACT WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LOVELOCK. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE MOVED
NORTHEAST AND ENDED, BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN AND RANGE AS BACK EDGE OF FORCING SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. FURTHER WEST, FRONT WAS APPROACHING WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CA. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER
AHEAD OF THIS BAND WEST OF WESTWOOD WITH A FEW ANVIL STRIKES
IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. 00Z NAM KEEPS A BAND OF SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WHILE THE GFS/HRRR INDICATE A
QUICKER DEMISE OF PRECIPITATION. SO WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA, AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY, THEN DECREASE SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY WERE JUST TWEAKS TO
POPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PUSH A MID/UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE AND ITS SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIR OVER THE SRN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ERN PART OF THE CWA SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 AND ALONG I-80 FOR LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN THE NAM...BUT ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE NOW
AS WELL. SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. WILL STILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...BUT COULD
BE A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST THAT MOVED ON SHORE TODAY IS
DISCONNECTED FROM THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS...AND A
WEAK SECONDARY MID LVL TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY. ONLY PROBLEM
COULD BE CLOUD COVER KEEPING A LID ON LOW LVL HEATING. THAT WOULD
LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEPER CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND INCREASES OVER THE NRN
CWA. FLOW OVER THE SOUTH REMAINS LIGHTER...BUT SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN FOR
THAT TIME BUT THIS OCCURRENCE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

BY SUNDAY WEAK RIDGE PUSHES EAST AS NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. 20

LONG TERM...MONDAY-THURSDAY...

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SPRING STORM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM BUT
INCREASING. NORMALIZED SPREADS OFF THE GEFS/EC ENSEMBLES ARE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE - HELPING RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN.

FLOW ALOFT INCREASES MON AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD YIELD GUSTY S/SW
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION (35-40 MPH TYPE STUFF). TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY MILD WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. FOLLOWING EC/GFS
GUIDANCE, PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT, LASTING INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE TAP AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. MAYBE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH LIQ
EQUIV ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. SPILLOVER INTO WRN NEVADA IS
UNCERTAIN. NO SURPRISE THERE. BUT STRONG FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FROM 7000 FT MON NIGHT TO NEAR 5000 FT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BEST DYNAMICS HAVE PASSED BY THEN. THIS WOULD
LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FT, AND THIS TIME OF
YEAR SNOW CAN BE HARD PRESSED TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS DURING THE
DAYTIME. WITH THAT SAID THERE`S STILL A CHANCE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS MON
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES.

GUSTY GRADIENT-DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MAKING THE ALREADY RADICAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE
(-20F FROM MON TO TUES) EVEN MORE CHILLING. A NUMBER OF PEOPLE
ALREADY HAVE GARDENS GOING AND BULBS SPROUTING, SO THERE IS WORRY
OUT THERE ABOUT FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THIS COLD AIRMASS. SO FAR,
FORECAST TEMPS IN THE MAIN AGRICULTURE AND URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHEST RISK OF BELOW 30F IS IN LASSEN
COUNTY UP INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE D8-14 PERIOD - GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER STORM PERHAPS FRIDAY/SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. ESRL ANALOGS
SHOW 50-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FROM APR 23-30, BUT THIS
TIME OF YEAR IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH RAIN/SNOW TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CS

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT BRUSHING BY THE REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TS, MAINLY NORTH OF A SVE-WMC LINE FROM 0Z/FRI-12Z/FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY SW WINDS TO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS. PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ROUGHLY 21Z/TODAY-02Z/FRI. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TAFS TODAY IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

LOOKING OUT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE COLD
FRONT AND INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TS
ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TRK/TVL SOUTHWARD TO MMH. RISK OF A CELL
IMPACTING THESE TAF SITES AFTER 19Z/FRI IS ABOUT 25%, AND IF IT DID
THE IMPACTS WOULD BE MVFR CIGS/VSBY ALONG WITH ERRATIC STRONG WINDS.
FOR RNO/CXP, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT TSTMS WOULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. CS

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 180318
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
818 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
AS THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IT WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL USHER IN STRONG WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AS EXPECTED.
FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA...POSSIBLY FED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW THE BEST DIVERGENCE MOVING AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT THE STORMS TO STAY OUT OF OUR
AREA. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT SO NO UPDATE PLANNED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
308 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST STATES TONIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. DID INCREASE POPS A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AS NON MEASURABLE...IE SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY BROAD TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAINLY IN
LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BUT DID KEEP POPS IN AS FAR WEST
AS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. HAVE HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EVEN INTO SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES. COOLER WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH MOHAVE COUNTY FEELING THE BURNT OF THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AS MUCH AS TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BUT INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REACH NEAR THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH AND MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED SPOTS. AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER WE MAY BE CONSIDERING WIND
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA...OWENS
VALLEY...SPRING MOUNTAINS...AND FAR WESTERN PARTS OF LAS VEGAS.
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH PARTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAY SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHEAST-SOUTH WINDS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH SUSTAINED WIND 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10 KTS. OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20 KFT TONIGHT WITH MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 10-15 KFT FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND 10-20 KTS MOST AREAS INTO THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT ABOVE 20 KFT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 10-15 KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
REPEAT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/PIERCE/OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 172208
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
308 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
AS THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IT WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL USHER IN STRONG WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.   &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST STATES TONIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. DID INCREASE POPS A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AS NON MEASURABLE...IE SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY BROAD TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAINLY IN
LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BUT DID KEEP POPS IN AS FAR WEST
AS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. HAVE HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EVEN INTO SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES. COOLER WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH MOHAVE COUNTY FEELING THE BURNT OF THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AS MUCH AS TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BUT INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REACH NEAR THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH AND MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED SPOTS. AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER WE MAY BE CONSIDERING WIND
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA...OWENS
VALLEY...SPRING MOUNTAINS...AND FAR WESTERN PARTS OF LAS VEGAS.
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH PARTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAY SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHEAST-SOUTH WINDS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH SUSTAINED WIND 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10 KTS. OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20 KFT TONIGHT WITH MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 10-15 KFT FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND 10-20 KTS MOST AREAS INTO THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT ABOVE 20 KFT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 10-15 KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
REPEAT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

PIERCE/OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 172114
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA, AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY, THEN DECREASE SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY WERE JUST TWEAKS TO
POPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PUSH A MID/UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE AND ITS SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIR OVER THE SRN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ERN PART OF THE CWA SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 AND ALONG I-80 FOR LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN THE NAM...BUT ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE NOW
AS WELL. SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. WILL STILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...BUT COULD
BE A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST THAT MOVED ON SHORE TODAY IS
DISCONNECTED FROM THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS...AND A
WEAK SECONDARY MID LVL TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY. ONLY PROBLEM
COULD BE CLOUD COVER KEEPING A LID ON LOW LVL HEATING. THAT WOULD
LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEPER CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND INCREASES OVER THE NRN
CWA. FLOW OVER THE SOUTH REMAINS LIGHTER...BUT SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN FOR
THAT TIME BUT THIS OCCURRENCE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

BY SUNDAY WEAK RIDGE PUSHES EAST AS NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. 20

.LONG TERM...MONDAY-THURSDAY...

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SPRING STORM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM BUT
INCREASING. NORMALIZED SPREADS OFF THE GEFS/EC ENSEMBLES ARE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE - HELPING RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN.

FLOW ALOFT INCREASES MON AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD YIELD GUSTY S/SW
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION (35-40 MPH TYPE STUFF). TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY MILD WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. FOLLOWING EC/GFS
GUIDANCE, PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT, LASTING INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE TAP AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. MAYBE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH LIQ
EQUIV ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. SPILLOVER INTO WRN NEVADA IS
UNCERTAIN. NO SURPRISE THERE. BUT STRONG FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FROM 7000 FT MON NIGHT TO NEAR 5000 FT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BEST DYNAMICS HAVE PASSED BY THEN. THIS WOULD
LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FT, AND THIS TIME OF
YEAR SNOW CAN BE HARD PRESSED TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS DURING THE
DAYTIME. WITH THAT SAID THERE`S STILL A CHANCE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS MON
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES.

GUSTY GRADIENT-DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MAKING THE ALREADY RADICAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE
(-20F FROM MON TO TUES) EVEN MORE CHILLING. A NUMBER OF PEOPLE
ALREADY HAVE GARDENS GOING AND BULBS SPROUTING, SO THERE IS WORRY
OUT THERE ABOUT FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THIS COLD AIRMASS. SO FAR,
FORECAST TEMPS IN THE MAIN AGRICULTURE AND URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHEST RISK OF BELOW 30F IS IN LASSEN
COUNTY UP INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE D8-14 PERIOD - GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER STORM PERHAPS FRIDAY/SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. ESRL ANALOGS
SHOW 50-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FROM APR 23-30, BUT THIS
TIME OF YEAR IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH RAIN/SNOW TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CS


&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT BRUSHING BY THE REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TS, MAINLY NORTH OF A SVE-WMC LINE FROM 0Z/FRI-12Z/FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY SW WINDS TO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS. PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ROUGHLY 21Z/TODAY-02Z/FRI. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TAFS TODAY IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

LOOKING OUT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE COLD
FRONT AND INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TS
ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TRK/TVL SOUTHWARD TO MMH. RISK OF A CELL
IMPACTING THESE TAF SITES AFTER 19Z/FRI IS ABOUT 25%, AND IF IT DID
THE IMPACTS WOULD BE MVFR CIGS/VSBY ALONG WITH ERRATIC STRONG WINDS.
FOR RNO/CXP, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT TSTMS WOULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. CS

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KLKN 172100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SPREADING
CLOUDS...RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
MAINLY WHITE PINE AND NYE COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASANT
SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY VISITING NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
DELIVERING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN 2014. AN
INCREASING SW BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ALL VALLEYS WELL
INTO THE 70S, WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS CRACKING 80 DEGREES.

ALTHOUGH THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR CWA AS OF THIS WRITING,
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RACING TOWARD US FROM TWO SEPARATE SOURCES, A
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND A LOW SPINNING IN THE EAST PACIFIC
WEST OF LOS ANGELES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING,
ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE AT THE RUBY DOME, JUST FOR
SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW MILD THIS AIRMASS IS. WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY (WITH A CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF DENIO),
AND ALSO NEAR EUREKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS INSTABILITY TO GENERATE INCREASING RAIN
SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDER, INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE BEST QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY.
VERY MILD TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. NAM/GFS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG A RUBY MTNS/SPRING CREEK-EUREKA-GABBS LINE DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS ON FRIDAY, SO THUNDER MENTION IS WELL-WARRANTED, EVEN DURING
THE RELATIVELY EARLIER HOURS OF THE DAY. AFTER NOON, THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SAG SE OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, WITH DRIER AIR
INVADING NW NEVADA. PAINTED POPS IN THIS FASHION, WITH HUMBOLDT
COUNTY DRY WITH MUCH FEWER CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY GET A LITTLE FEISTY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MOST NOTABLY ELY TO EUREKA TO MANHATTAN.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE IS FURTHER SUPPRESSED SE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED LARGELY TO WHITE PINE AND NYE
COUNTIES, BUT A FEW WILL STILL PROBABLY POP UP ON THE RUBIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IMPORTANT FOR THE OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS AMONG
US. AFTER A MINOR COOLDOWN FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GET A 5-8
DEGREE REBOUND ON SATURDAY, BACK TO THE DELIGHTFUL LOW TO MID 70S.

EASTER SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY EXPECTED, UNDER DRY WEAK NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR NOTHING,
BUT KEPT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MENTIONED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WHITE PINE COUNTY. MOST AREAS MOSTLY SUNNY, ENJOYING UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S EASTER AFTERNOON.  BT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS LOOKS UNSTABLE OVER NE NV MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TROF ALONG THE WEST
COAST NEGATIVE TILT...COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE HIGH POPS TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD QPF AMOUNTS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE TROF IS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS THAN THE EC AT THIS TIME AS
THE NEGATIVE TILT TROF SHOULD DIG THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.
LOOKS LIKE THE EC KICKS IT EAST TOO FAST. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO HAVE BLENDED MODELS FOR LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND KEEPING THE SOUTH MAINLY DRY.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER KWMC...KEKO...AND KELY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AT KELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87






000
FXUS65 KLKN 172100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SPREADING
CLOUDS...RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
MAINLY WHITE PINE AND NYE COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASANT
SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY VISITING NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
DELIVERING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN 2014. AN
INCREASING SW BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ALL VALLEYS WELL
INTO THE 70S, WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS CRACKING 80 DEGREES.

ALTHOUGH THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR CWA AS OF THIS WRITING,
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RACING TOWARD US FROM TWO SEPARATE SOURCES, A
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND A LOW SPINNING IN THE EAST PACIFIC
WEST OF LOS ANGELES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING,
ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE AT THE RUBY DOME, JUST FOR
SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW MILD THIS AIRMASS IS. WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY (WITH A CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF DENIO),
AND ALSO NEAR EUREKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS INSTABILITY TO GENERATE INCREASING RAIN
SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDER, INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE BEST QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY.
VERY MILD TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. NAM/GFS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG A RUBY MTNS/SPRING CREEK-EUREKA-GABBS LINE DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS ON FRIDAY, SO THUNDER MENTION IS WELL-WARRANTED, EVEN DURING
THE RELATIVELY EARLIER HOURS OF THE DAY. AFTER NOON, THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SAG SE OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, WITH DRIER AIR
INVADING NW NEVADA. PAINTED POPS IN THIS FASHION, WITH HUMBOLDT
COUNTY DRY WITH MUCH FEWER CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY GET A LITTLE FEISTY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MOST NOTABLY ELY TO EUREKA TO MANHATTAN.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE IS FURTHER SUPPRESSED SE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED LARGELY TO WHITE PINE AND NYE
COUNTIES, BUT A FEW WILL STILL PROBABLY POP UP ON THE RUBIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IMPORTANT FOR THE OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS AMONG
US. AFTER A MINOR COOLDOWN FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GET A 5-8
DEGREE REBOUND ON SATURDAY, BACK TO THE DELIGHTFUL LOW TO MID 70S.

EASTER SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY EXPECTED, UNDER DRY WEAK NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR NOTHING,
BUT KEPT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MENTIONED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WHITE PINE COUNTY. MOST AREAS MOSTLY SUNNY, ENJOYING UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S EASTER AFTERNOON.  BT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS LOOKS UNSTABLE OVER NE NV MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TROF ALONG THE WEST
COAST NEGATIVE TILT...COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE HIGH POPS TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD QPF AMOUNTS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE TROF IS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS THAN THE EC AT THIS TIME AS
THE NEGATIVE TILT TROF SHOULD DIG THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.
LOOKS LIKE THE EC KICKS IT EAST TOO FAST. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO HAVE BLENDED MODELS FOR LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND KEEPING THE SOUTH MAINLY DRY.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER KWMC...KEKO...AND KELY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AT KELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





000
FXUS65 KVEF 171625 AAB
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
925 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES WSW OF SAN DIEGO THIS
MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS PARTS OF LAS
VEGAS SO LOW 90S WELL WITHIN REACH ESPECIALLY ONCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
MIX OUT. FORECAST IS FINE.

.PREV UPDATE...
551 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY
AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON
DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE
GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE
STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 22Z AND TURNING
SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING
SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 171251 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
551 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY
AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON
DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE
GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE
STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 21Z  AND TURNING
SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING
SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 171026
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY
AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON
DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE
GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE
STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 21Z  AND TURNING
SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING
SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KLKN 171022
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RATHER MILD THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY STILL IN THE
40S. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ON IR IMAGERY DEFINES THE CREST OF THE H5
RIDGE NICELY NEARING THE CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN AMPLITUDE TODAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE CWFA. 570DM HEIGHTS WILL REACH
TO NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AS THE CREST MOVES EAST. COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY THUS FAR IN THE CALENDAR YEAR...70S WIDESPREAD WITH
POSSIBLY 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK UP A NOTCH...BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEEPENING
AND PRODUCING AT LEAST ONE COLD FRONT...ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.
HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THE SPECIFICS SINCE THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHAT COULD BE DECODED AS MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THINK THIS IS
OCCURRING DUE TO THE DOMINANT NEAR-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
AS THE PROPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN ARIZONA. WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...THOUGH MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. MODELS AGREE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONCE AGAIN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NEVADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO MUCH INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH QPF THAN THEY ARE SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW LEANING FORECAST TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF VALLEY AREAS...AND LIKELY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW. FOR NOW QPF AMOUNTS NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
APPROACHING KWMC THIS EVENING...KEKO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND TO KELY AND KTPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 171022
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RATHER MILD THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY STILL IN THE
40S. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ON IR IMAGERY DEFINES THE CREST OF THE H5
RIDGE NICELY NEARING THE CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN AMPLITUDE TODAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE CWFA. 570DM HEIGHTS WILL REACH
TO NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AS THE CREST MOVES EAST. COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY THUS FAR IN THE CALENDAR YEAR...70S WIDESPREAD WITH
POSSIBLY 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK UP A NOTCH...BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEEPENING
AND PRODUCING AT LEAST ONE COLD FRONT...ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.
HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THE SPECIFICS SINCE THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHAT COULD BE DECODED AS MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THINK THIS IS
OCCURRING DUE TO THE DOMINANT NEAR-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
AS THE PROPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN ARIZONA. WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...THOUGH MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. MODELS AGREE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONCE AGAIN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NEVADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO MUCH INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH QPF THAN THEY ARE SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW LEANING FORECAST TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF VALLEY AREAS...AND LIKELY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW. FOR NOW QPF AMOUNTS NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
APPROACHING KWMC THIS EVENING...KEKO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND TO KELY AND KTPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 171022
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RATHER MILD THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY STILL IN THE
40S. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ON IR IMAGERY DEFINES THE CREST OF THE H5
RIDGE NICELY NEARING THE CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN AMPLITUDE TODAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE CWFA. 570DM HEIGHTS WILL REACH
TO NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AS THE CREST MOVES EAST. COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY THUS FAR IN THE CALENDAR YEAR...70S WIDESPREAD WITH
POSSIBLY 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK UP A NOTCH...BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEEPENING
AND PRODUCING AT LEAST ONE COLD FRONT...ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.
HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THE SPECIFICS SINCE THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHAT COULD BE DECODED AS MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THINK THIS IS
OCCURRING DUE TO THE DOMINANT NEAR-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
AS THE PROPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN ARIZONA. WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...THOUGH MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. MODELS AGREE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONCE AGAIN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NEVADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO MUCH INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH QPF THAN THEY ARE SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW LEANING FORECAST TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF VALLEY AREAS...AND LIKELY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW. FOR NOW QPF AMOUNTS NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
APPROACHING KWMC THIS EVENING...KEKO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND TO KELY AND KTPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 171022
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RATHER MILD THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY STILL IN THE
40S. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ON IR IMAGERY DEFINES THE CREST OF THE H5
RIDGE NICELY NEARING THE CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN AMPLITUDE TODAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE CWFA. 570DM HEIGHTS WILL REACH
TO NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AS THE CREST MOVES EAST. COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY THUS FAR IN THE CALENDAR YEAR...70S WIDESPREAD WITH
POSSIBLY 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK UP A NOTCH...BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEEPENING
AND PRODUCING AT LEAST ONE COLD FRONT...ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.
HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THE SPECIFICS SINCE THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHAT COULD BE DECODED AS MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THINK THIS IS
OCCURRING DUE TO THE DOMINANT NEAR-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
AS THE PROPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN ARIZONA. WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...THOUGH MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. MODELS AGREE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONCE AGAIN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NEVADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO MUCH INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH QPF THAN THEY ARE SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW LEANING FORECAST TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF VALLEY AREAS...AND LIKELY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW. FOR NOW QPF AMOUNTS NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
APPROACHING KWMC THIS EVENING...KEKO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND TO KELY AND KTPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/96/96





000
FXUS65 KREV 170944
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
244 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-
GERLACH LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES. SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LEADING TO ENHANCED WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH. THIS MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES,
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL HELP WITH MIXING LEADING TO
DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS DECENT FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, THOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXIST
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN SITTING OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD GENERATE THE
DEEPER CONVECTION NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONE DRAWBACK COULD BE
CLOUD COVER STIFLING DAYTIME HEATING AND LIMITING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY, BUT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
THIS.

TROUGH EXITS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WARMING AFTER THE SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION, BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN
MONO COUNTY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERATED BY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SLIGHT INCREASE IN POP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. ON MONDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ALSO, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH WARMER AIR
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. HOWEVER, WHILE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONE WILL
MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MODELS MAY
SERVE TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF DOWNSLOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
SIERRA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARE INCREASING
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT FOR BRINGING IN THE PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT. IF MODELS HOLD TO THE CURRENT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT, POP MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE IN THE NEXT DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/IMPACTS, IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE LOWER VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY BUT SOME IMPACT IS
CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE FOR THE SIERRA ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT OR BEFORE MID MORNING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY, MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO APPEAR AS THE GFS BRINGS IN
ONE MORE DISTURBANCE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM
ARE QUICKER TO PUSH THE MAIN TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST. WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE, I HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POP GOING FOR MOST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALL THE
WAY TO LOWER VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT
BRIEF TRAVEL IMPACTS IF SNOW FALLS BEFORE TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS (LOCALLY 30). ALSO, A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT MAINLY WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH SO ONLY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGH MVFR CIGS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THERE IS ALSO A LOW (5-10%) CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SNYDER


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 170332
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
832 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE CIRRUS SPILLING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
312 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN
15-25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES TO JUMP AROUND 3-5
DEGREES OVER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.

COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERING TO SEASONAL NORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA THAT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. GFS/GEM
VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN INDICATING A DEEP COLD TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF CAME IN NOT AS SHARP/DEEP WITH THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE CAN SAY STRONG WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS DUE TO
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BOTTOM LINE...DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A DIRECTION INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 8-12 KTS. THEN AROUND 22Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THIS EVENING AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND UNDER 10 KTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SPEEDS DECREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THEN SCT-BKN AOA 15K FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND AOA 20K FEET ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEVADA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/STUMPF/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 162212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN
15-25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES TO JUMP AROUND 3-5
DEGREES OVER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.

COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERING TO SEASONAL NORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA THAT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. GFS/GEM
VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN INDICATING A DEEP COLD TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF CAME IN NOT AS SHARP/DEEP WITH THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE CAN SAY STRONG WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS DUE TO
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BOTTOM LINE...DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A DIRECTION INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 8-12 KTS. THEN AROUND 22Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THIS EVENING AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND UNDER 10 KTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SPEEDS DECREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THEN SCT-BKN AOA 15K FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND AOA 20K FEET ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEVADA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

STUMPF/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KREV 162124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FAST
MOVING COOL FRONT MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO BACKED OFF POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AS SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS THURSDAY MAY REACH NEAR 80 IN THE
BASIN AND RANGE AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. THIS LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS MAIN EFFECT MAY BE TO BOOST THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE BUMPED THE WINDS UP...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY STILL DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR ERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ARE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO HOLD
ON TO SOME MOISTURE IN THE SRN CWA FRIDAY AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SHOWERS INTO LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE DRAWBACK COULD BE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY THAT
STIFLES DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LVL INSTABILITY. FOR NOW DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF DECREASING INSTABILITY TO PULL THE THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE ON ITS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTER DECREASING A FEW
DEGREES FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE FAR SRN CWA MAY COMBINE WITH HEATING FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR COULD INCREASE TOO MUCH
FOR THESE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST...BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. 20

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL
DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE TAHOE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION BRINGING A COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 9-12 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH PRECIP REACHING NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
TAHOE BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND NEAR 40
AT LAKE TAHOE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS OCCURRED. TRAVEL IMPACTS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST PASSES AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
STICKING GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
RECENT WARM SPELL.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
MYRICK
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MYRICK
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KLKN 162100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR ON THURSDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. A STRONGER...COLDER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRATOCUMULUS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LAST
NIGHT`S DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. SHOULD STILL GET CLOSE TO PROJECTED
HIGHS WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MID-APRIL SUNSHINE.

STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA ON
THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE WARMS RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE, WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR EXPECTED. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE
TYPICAL, WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES IN THE LOWER 80S. A SW BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH WILL ENCOURAGE A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE RESULTANT TOASTY TEMPS.

FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE AND SPRING-LIKE, AS A PLUME OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF THE PACIFIC INTERACTS WITH APRIL
SUNSHINE. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT INSTABILITY INCREASES AFTER NOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ELKO, NORTHERN WHITE PINE, SE EUREKA, AND NW NYE COUNTIES. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR ELKO FRIDAY AFTERNOON REVEAL CLOUD BASES NEAR
650 MB, LOW ENOUGH TO GET RAIN TO THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY WITH PW
OVER 1/2 INCH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 AND
CAPE OF 200 J/KG AROUND 2-3 PM. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MENTIONED
THUNDER, AND INCLUDED SCATTERED THUNDER WORDING WHERE INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OF 50-55 MPH
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED FROM THURSDAY`S BALMY
READINGS, BUT STILL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE TRENDS, ALTHOUGH MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SE ZONES, AS THE PW PLUME SHIFTS SE. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR ELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN REVEAL CLOUD BASES NEAR
650 MB WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -1 AND CAPE NEAR 100 J/KG. INCREASED
POP GRIDS FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS SE, AND INCLUDED THUNDER. 12Z
ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNALS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY OVER NW
NEVADA, AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION AND WITH FEWER CLOUDS THAN ON
FRIDAY.  BT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
EASTERN NV. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY AS A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA.
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP TROP IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA ON MONDAY. WITH THIS DEEPER TROP...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE. STILL...MODELS
AREN`T TOO BAD IN AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEVADA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET
THE TIMING OF QPF AMOUNTS...BUT DOES LOOK COLDER AND WETTER NEXT
MID WEEK. AIRMASS REMAINS COLD WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS AT THIS TIME
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 22 MPH WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF LOCATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 162100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR ON THURSDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. A STRONGER...COLDER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRATOCUMULUS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LAST
NIGHT`S DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. SHOULD STILL GET CLOSE TO PROJECTED
HIGHS WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MID-APRIL SUNSHINE.

STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA ON
THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE WARMS RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE, WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR EXPECTED. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE
TYPICAL, WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES IN THE LOWER 80S. A SW BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH WILL ENCOURAGE A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE RESULTANT TOASTY TEMPS.

FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE AND SPRING-LIKE, AS A PLUME OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF THE PACIFIC INTERACTS WITH APRIL
SUNSHINE. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT INSTABILITY INCREASES AFTER NOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ELKO, NORTHERN WHITE PINE, SE EUREKA, AND NW NYE COUNTIES. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR ELKO FRIDAY AFTERNOON REVEAL CLOUD BASES NEAR
650 MB, LOW ENOUGH TO GET RAIN TO THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY WITH PW
OVER 1/2 INCH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 AND
CAPE OF 200 J/KG AROUND 2-3 PM. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MENTIONED
THUNDER, AND INCLUDED SCATTERED THUNDER WORDING WHERE INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OF 50-55 MPH
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED FROM THURSDAY`S BALMY
READINGS, BUT STILL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE TRENDS, ALTHOUGH MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SE ZONES, AS THE PW PLUME SHIFTS SE. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR ELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN REVEAL CLOUD BASES NEAR
650 MB WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -1 AND CAPE NEAR 100 J/KG. INCREASED
POP GRIDS FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS SE, AND INCLUDED THUNDER. 12Z
ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNALS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY OVER NW
NEVADA, AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION AND WITH FEWER CLOUDS THAN ON
FRIDAY.  BT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
EASTERN NV. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY AS A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA.
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP TROP IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA ON MONDAY. WITH THIS DEEPER TROP...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE. STILL...MODELS
AREN`T TOO BAD IN AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEVADA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET
THE TIMING OF QPF AMOUNTS...BUT DOES LOOK COLDER AND WETTER NEXT
MID WEEK. AIRMASS REMAINS COLD WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS AT THIS TIME
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 22 MPH WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF LOCATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87






000
FXUS65 KVEF 161550 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN UTAH TODAY
WILL KEEP CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING
CLOUDS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
311 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
LITTLE ELSE WILL BE NOTICED FROM THIS SYSTEM. WEAK RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS /15-25 MPH/. WITH THE INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OVER
TODAYS HIGHS WHICH WILL PUT READINGS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGHING APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK FOR
A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS SATURDAY
BUT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SATURDAY TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVES IT ACROSS NEVADA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO AND
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER, BRINGING AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING IT EAST. THE GEM MOISTURE PROFILE IS EVEN LESS
GENEROUS FOR OUR AREA, KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH.
THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GEM BUT SLOWER WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH AND THE COOLER AIRMASS.

MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
GRIDS FOR NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY IS "OFFICIALLY" BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANGES INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN POPS AND SKY
COVER AND A LOWERING OF FORECAST TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH IN A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MONDAY TO LATE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
WILL BE AND WHAT IMPACTS IT WILL BRING IS LOW.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH TODAY...BUT MAY SWITCH TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BETWEEN
16Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8-10KTS AFTER 02Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH WINDS UNDER 10
KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH TODAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STUMPF
PREV DISCUSSION...GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













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