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000
FXUS65 KLKN 181828
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1028 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME ECHOS STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST
NV AND SOME LIGHT FLURRIES STILL NOTED HERE AT THE OFFICE.
UPDATED FOR ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST NV THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 453 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPDATE...SOME ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NV AND
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES NOTED HERE AT THE OFFICE. WILL UPDATE FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NV.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 339 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT INTO UTAH BY AFTERNOON WITH TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRANSVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT TURNING TO RAIN
BELOW 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NV,
WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. AGAIN, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A DIRTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CA EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN
CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGH ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. IF VERIFIED...THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA CHRISTMAS EVE...AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93



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000
FXUS65 KVEF 181652 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS LAKE MEAD AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY. MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB HANDLING THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. BETWEEN
ONE-QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN NEAR
MOAPA OVERNIGHT WITH A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN INCH FALLING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST VEGAS VALLEY AND ALONG THE US-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN VEGAS
AND INDIAN SPRINGS. EXPECT WHAT REMAINS OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 181652 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS LAKE MEAD AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY. MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB HANDLING THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. BETWEEN
ONE-QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN NEAR
MOAPA OVERNIGHT WITH A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN INCH FALLING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST VEGAS VALLEY AND ALONG THE US-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN VEGAS
AND INDIAN SPRINGS. EXPECT WHAT REMAINS OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KLKN 181253
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
453 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...SOME ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NV AND
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES NOTED HERE AT THE OFFICE. WILL UPDATE FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NV.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 339 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT INTO UTAH BY AFTERNOON WITH TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRANSVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT TURNING TO RAIN
BELOW 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NV,
WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. AGAIN, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A DIRTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CA EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN
CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGH ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. IF VERIFIED...THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA CHRISTMAS EVE...AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96



000
FXUS65 KLKN 181253
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
453 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...SOME ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NV AND
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES NOTED HERE AT THE OFFICE. WILL UPDATE FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NV.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 339 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT INTO UTAH BY AFTERNOON WITH TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRANSVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT TURNING TO RAIN
BELOW 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NV,
WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. AGAIN, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A DIRTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CA EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN
CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGH ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. IF VERIFIED...THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA CHRISTMAS EVE...AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 181253
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
453 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...SOME ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NV AND
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES NOTED HERE AT THE OFFICE. WILL UPDATE FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NV.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 339 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT INTO UTAH BY AFTERNOON WITH TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRANSVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT TURNING TO RAIN
BELOW 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NV,
WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. AGAIN, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A DIRTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CA EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN
CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGH ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. IF VERIFIED...THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA CHRISTMAS EVE...AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 181253
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
453 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...SOME ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NV AND
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES NOTED HERE AT THE OFFICE. WILL UPDATE FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NV.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 339 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT INTO UTAH BY AFTERNOON WITH TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRANSVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT TURNING TO RAIN
BELOW 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NV,
WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. AGAIN, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A DIRTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CA EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN
CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGH ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. IF VERIFIED...THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA CHRISTMAS EVE...AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96



000
FXUS65 KLKN 181139
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT INTO UTAH BY AFTERNOON WITH TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRANSVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT TURNING TO RAIN
BELOW 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NV,
WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. AGAIN, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A DIRTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CA EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN
CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGH ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. IF VERIFIED...THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA CHRISTMAS EVE...AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96



000
FXUS65 KLKN 181139
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT INTO UTAH BY AFTERNOON WITH TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRANSVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT TURNING TO RAIN
BELOW 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NV,
WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. AGAIN, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A DIRTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CA EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN
CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGH ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. IF VERIFIED...THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA CHRISTMAS EVE...AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 181119
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT HAS FALLEN
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE SIERRA. FORECAST MODELS AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG OR EAST OF THE CREST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, IF WE ARE LUCKY, BUT OTHERWISE
ONLY WEAK SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT, TRAVEL MAY BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
FOR THE SIERRA PASSES, ESPECIALLY DONNER AND ECHO SUMMITS AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 89. THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF NEVADA, ACROSS OREGON, BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
MID MORNING FRIDAY AND THEN SAG FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE AND TO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHADOW MUCH OF THE SIERRA
FRONT INCLUDING RENO/CARSON CITY, BUT LEFT IN LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS
EAST ON FRIDAY EVENING, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND IT THAT MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500-5500 FEET NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE. TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV. THE JET
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA, BUT
DIFFERENCES IN JET PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
NAIL DOWN WHERE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AT THIS TIME.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE TO COVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES.
WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE LOOKS "DIRTY" WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS/MOISTURE
NORTH OF RENO. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
SIERRA, ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SUN ANGLES WILL LIMIT MIXING IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INVERSIONS
LIKELY. THIS MAY LEAD TO DEGRADED AIR QUALITY THROUGH SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE SHOW AN INSIDE SLIDER
DROPPING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE AND POSSIBLY INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS IS THE THIRD
DAY IN A ROW THAT WE`VE SEEN THE ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT, VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR 7 DAYS
OUT. THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND EAST-TO-WEST TRACK OF PRECIP. NONETHELESS, THE
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS LEADING TO A MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY
(CHRISTMAS EVE) WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS COLD FRONT VERY CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL OF
SEEING SNOW ON THE VALLEY FLOORS ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 181119
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT HAS FALLEN
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE SIERRA. FORECAST MODELS AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG OR EAST OF THE CREST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, IF WE ARE LUCKY, BUT OTHERWISE
ONLY WEAK SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT, TRAVEL MAY BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
FOR THE SIERRA PASSES, ESPECIALLY DONNER AND ECHO SUMMITS AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 89. THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF NEVADA, ACROSS OREGON, BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
MID MORNING FRIDAY AND THEN SAG FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE AND TO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHADOW MUCH OF THE SIERRA
FRONT INCLUDING RENO/CARSON CITY, BUT LEFT IN LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS
EAST ON FRIDAY EVENING, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND IT THAT MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500-5500 FEET NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE. TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV. THE JET
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA, BUT
DIFFERENCES IN JET PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
NAIL DOWN WHERE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AT THIS TIME.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE TO COVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES.
WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE LOOKS "DIRTY" WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS/MOISTURE
NORTH OF RENO. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
SIERRA, ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SUN ANGLES WILL LIMIT MIXING IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INVERSIONS
LIKELY. THIS MAY LEAD TO DEGRADED AIR QUALITY THROUGH SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE SHOW AN INSIDE SLIDER
DROPPING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE AND POSSIBLY INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS IS THE THIRD
DAY IN A ROW THAT WE`VE SEEN THE ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT, VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR 7 DAYS
OUT. THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND EAST-TO-WEST TRACK OF PRECIP. NONETHELESS, THE
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS LEADING TO A MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY
(CHRISTMAS EVE) WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS COLD FRONT VERY CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL OF
SEEING SNOW ON THE VALLEY FLOORS ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 181049 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
249 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 181049 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
249 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 181049
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 181049
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 181049
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 181049
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KREV 180620
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1020 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS WANING AND PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN
NV THIS EVENING AS BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW LAGGED BEHIND OVER CA.
MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED WAY OFF ON RAIN AND SNOW FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE SIERRA AS A RESULT OF THE LATEST TRENDS. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
SNOW, IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER, MAY REACH THE CREST WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 89 NORTH OF
TRUCKEE, BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT. WE UPDATED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS ACROSS WESTERN NV AND EVEN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 89 WITH AN INCH OR LESS AT KTVL/KTRK OVERNIGHT. WHILE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, TRAVEL MAY BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREA PASSES, ESPECIALLY DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, AND ALONG HIGHWAY 89. A FEW FLURRIES MAY VISIT THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AS WELL
THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY STRONG
WAVE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN OVER THE
SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 180620
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1020 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS WANING AND PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN
NV THIS EVENING AS BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW LAGGED BEHIND OVER CA.
MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED WAY OFF ON RAIN AND SNOW FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE SIERRA AS A RESULT OF THE LATEST TRENDS. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
SNOW, IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER, MAY REACH THE CREST WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 89 NORTH OF
TRUCKEE, BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT. WE UPDATED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS ACROSS WESTERN NV AND EVEN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 89 WITH AN INCH OR LESS AT KTVL/KTRK OVERNIGHT. WHILE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, TRAVEL MAY BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREA PASSES, ESPECIALLY DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, AND ALONG HIGHWAY 89. A FEW FLURRIES MAY VISIT THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AS WELL
THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY STRONG
WAVE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN OVER THE
SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KVEF 180453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
853 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...NOT A VERY WET STORM FOR OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THIS IS ONE OF
THE RARE MONTHS IN THE LAST FEW YEARS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND SO WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET. MOST AREAS SAW
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THE
REALITY WAS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST SPOTS. THE
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 825 AND 725 MB
WHICH STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL THE POP GRIDS LOOKED
OK, HOWEVER, THERE IS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY SET
OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN CWFA. BOTH THE
WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS INYO, ESMERALDA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES
AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN THESE AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE AND I WILL LEAVE IT BE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND 6 KFT BEFORE
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND LIFTING TO AROUND 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CIGS OF 3K-6K FT AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE EAST.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE APPARENT FROM
SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THESE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT
RADAR LOOPS SHOWED A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL DIG A
LITTLE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION DIVES TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES...SO
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 180453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
853 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...NOT A VERY WET STORM FOR OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THIS IS ONE OF
THE RARE MONTHS IN THE LAST FEW YEARS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND SO WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET. MOST AREAS SAW
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THE
REALITY WAS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST SPOTS. THE
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 825 AND 725 MB
WHICH STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL THE POP GRIDS LOOKED
OK, HOWEVER, THERE IS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY SET
OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN CWFA. BOTH THE
WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS INYO, ESMERALDA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES
AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN THESE AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE AND I WILL LEAVE IT BE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND 6 KFT BEFORE
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND LIFTING TO AROUND 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CIGS OF 3K-6K FT AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE EAST.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE APPARENT FROM
SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THESE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT
RADAR LOOPS SHOWED A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL DIG A
LITTLE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION DIVES TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES...SO
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KREV 180322 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
722 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AS WELL
THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY STRONG
WAVE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN OVER THE
SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 180322 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
722 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AS WELL
THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY STRONG
WAVE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN OVER THE
SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 180322 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
722 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AS WELL
THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY STRONG
WAVE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN OVER THE
SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 180322 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
722 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AS WELL
THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY STRONG
WAVE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN OVER THE
SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KVEF 172250
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE APPARENT FROM
SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THESE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT
RADAR LOOPS SHOWED A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL DIG A
LITTLE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION DIVES TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES...SO
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K-6K FEET AROUND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN HOVER AROUND 6 KFT BEFORE
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND LIFTING TO AROUND 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY LIGHTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CEILINGS OF 3K-5K FT AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE EAST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 172247
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE THE SIERRA PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE THE LOWER VALLEYS
AS WELL THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY
STRONG WAVE...BUT THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN
OVER THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEYS FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 172247
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE THE SIERRA PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE THE LOWER VALLEYS
AS WELL THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY
STRONG WAVE...BUT THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN
OVER THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEYS FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 172247
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE THE SIERRA PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE THE LOWER VALLEYS
AS WELL THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY
STRONG WAVE...BUT THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN
OVER THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEYS FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 172247
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY FOR THE THE SIERRA PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE THE LOWER VALLEYS
AS WELL THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY
STRONG WAVE...BUT THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNATURE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...SHOULD PUSH PCPN
OVER THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST CA
FROM ABOUT THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. THEN THE PCPN CHANCES SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN DOES NOT TEND TO BE VERY HIGH
OR DRIVEN MUCH BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THUS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA TO GET ABOUT AS MUCH AS
POINTS IN THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
DOWN TO EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEYS FLOORS IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SIERRA SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
4500 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OVERNIGHT? HIGH POPS AND LOW QPF WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. IN THE
TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
COUNTY...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SO...WE WILL
NOT PLAN ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT BE ADVISED THAT EVEN AN
INCH OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
BE PREPARED FOR A FEW TRAVEL DELAYS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE FOR EASTERN CA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

THIS WAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 20

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THE WAVE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE CREST. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
NV MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE AS WELL. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE LARGELY SHADOWS OUT THE
SIERRA FRONT, BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THINK THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY
END UP SEEING SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE 4500-5500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH OF THERE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

A DIRTY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV. THE JET IS DRIVEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
JET CORE WILL BE. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH WE MAY SEE
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE RANGE IS NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SPECTRUM BEING DOWN TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING IN THIS PATTERN TO 6000-7000 FEET. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE RATHER
"DIRTY" WITH LOTS OF MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE), MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO REBUILD/RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
A SLIDER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR ON CHRISTMAS DAY/NEXT THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE LARGE AT THIS TIME INDICATING VAST UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE SLIDER DIGS VERSUS WHETHER IT ACTUALLY EXISTS. THEREFORE, I
WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF SLIDER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION AND HOW COLD IT GETS, THAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED! SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT
INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS ARE GENERALLY
VFR, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA/THE SIERRA AND IN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-06Z), YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED (WESTERN NEVADA) TO NUMEROUS
(SIERRA) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DOWN
CIGS/VIS TO IFR IN THE SIERRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. -SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z/4AM
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENTS/TARMACS,
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SPORADIC ENOUGH THAT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS BELOW 5000 FEET REMAIN MAINLY WET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
ABOVE 5000 FEET (KRTS). IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (KSVE), SNOW COULD BE A BIT HEAVIER SO A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION (UP TO AN INCH) IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KLKN 172200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOUDY SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COLD. A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO VALLEY
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS MILDER AIR RETURNS TO NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THICK MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERSISTENT FOG OR LOW STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NE NEVADA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST
SUN AND SHORTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR, THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE
STRUGGLING TO BURN OFF. FOG OR LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING MID CLOUD DECKS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED TONIGHT. ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT STILL REPORTING 2
MILES VISIBILITY IN FOG AT 1 PM, SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A
FREEZING FOG MENTION AT LEAST THIS EVENING, AND ADVISE THE NEXT
SHIFT TO MONITOR. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NW NEVADA TONIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR RENO BY SUNSET. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SW ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NE NEVADA. NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
SEASONABLE COLD IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY DEPARTS EASTERN NEVADA EARLY, ALLOWING
THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO ENTER NW NEVADA BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH LIGHT WET SNOW FOCUSING IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP GRIDS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
ELKO COUNTY. ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFFECTS ON
TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL. ROADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET, WITH AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHORTWAVE EXITS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
VERY WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THAT SAID, THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY APPROACHING
NW NEVADA SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES, SPREADING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN AVERAGE
ABOUT 1/2-1 INCH, MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. INCREASED
POP GRIDS TO LIKELY FOLLOWING ECMWF`S QPF DEPICTION, BUT AGAIN
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAINLY WET ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND THICK CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOONS SEASONABLY COLD
AND SUNSHINE AT A PREMIUM.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE EC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AND
OVER THE NE PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RIDGE SHOULD HAVE AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SHOWERS INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF A COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...BUT DO INDICATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR MENTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KELY...KEKO AND KTPH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
FORM IN NE NV AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87



000
FXUS65 KLKN 172200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOUDY SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COLD. A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO VALLEY
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS MILDER AIR RETURNS TO NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THICK MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERSISTENT FOG OR LOW STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NE NEVADA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST
SUN AND SHORTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR, THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE
STRUGGLING TO BURN OFF. FOG OR LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING MID CLOUD DECKS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED TONIGHT. ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT STILL REPORTING 2
MILES VISIBILITY IN FOG AT 1 PM, SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A
FREEZING FOG MENTION AT LEAST THIS EVENING, AND ADVISE THE NEXT
SHIFT TO MONITOR. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NW NEVADA TONIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR RENO BY SUNSET. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SW ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NE NEVADA. NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
SEASONABLE COLD IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY DEPARTS EASTERN NEVADA EARLY, ALLOWING
THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO ENTER NW NEVADA BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH LIGHT WET SNOW FOCUSING IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP GRIDS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
ELKO COUNTY. ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFFECTS ON
TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL. ROADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET, WITH AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHORTWAVE EXITS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
VERY WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THAT SAID, THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY APPROACHING
NW NEVADA SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES, SPREADING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN AVERAGE
ABOUT 1/2-1 INCH, MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. INCREASED
POP GRIDS TO LIKELY FOLLOWING ECMWF`S QPF DEPICTION, BUT AGAIN
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAINLY WET ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND THICK CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOONS SEASONABLY COLD
AND SUNSHINE AT A PREMIUM.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE EC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AND
OVER THE NE PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RIDGE SHOULD HAVE AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SHOWERS INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF A COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...BUT DO INDICATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR MENTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KELY...KEKO AND KTPH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
FORM IN NE NV AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 172200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOUDY SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COLD. A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO VALLEY
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS MILDER AIR RETURNS TO NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THICK MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERSISTENT FOG OR LOW STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NE NEVADA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST
SUN AND SHORTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR, THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE
STRUGGLING TO BURN OFF. FOG OR LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING MID CLOUD DECKS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED TONIGHT. ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT STILL REPORTING 2
MILES VISIBILITY IN FOG AT 1 PM, SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A
FREEZING FOG MENTION AT LEAST THIS EVENING, AND ADVISE THE NEXT
SHIFT TO MONITOR. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NW NEVADA TONIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR RENO BY SUNSET. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SW ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NE NEVADA. NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
SEASONABLE COLD IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY DEPARTS EASTERN NEVADA EARLY, ALLOWING
THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO ENTER NW NEVADA BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH LIGHT WET SNOW FOCUSING IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP GRIDS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
ELKO COUNTY. ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFFECTS ON
TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL. ROADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET, WITH AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHORTWAVE EXITS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
VERY WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THAT SAID, THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY APPROACHING
NW NEVADA SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES, SPREADING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN AVERAGE
ABOUT 1/2-1 INCH, MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. INCREASED
POP GRIDS TO LIKELY FOLLOWING ECMWF`S QPF DEPICTION, BUT AGAIN
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAINLY WET ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND THICK CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOONS SEASONABLY COLD
AND SUNSHINE AT A PREMIUM.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE EC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AND
OVER THE NE PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RIDGE SHOULD HAVE AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SHOWERS INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF A COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...BUT DO INDICATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR MENTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KELY...KEKO AND KTPH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
FORM IN NE NV AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 172200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOUDY SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COLD. A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO VALLEY
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS MILDER AIR RETURNS TO NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THICK MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERSISTENT FOG OR LOW STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NE NEVADA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST
SUN AND SHORTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR, THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE
STRUGGLING TO BURN OFF. FOG OR LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING MID CLOUD DECKS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED TONIGHT. ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT STILL REPORTING 2
MILES VISIBILITY IN FOG AT 1 PM, SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A
FREEZING FOG MENTION AT LEAST THIS EVENING, AND ADVISE THE NEXT
SHIFT TO MONITOR. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NW NEVADA TONIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR RENO BY SUNSET. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SW ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NE NEVADA. NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
SEASONABLE COLD IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY DEPARTS EASTERN NEVADA EARLY, ALLOWING
THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO ENTER NW NEVADA BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH LIGHT WET SNOW FOCUSING IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP GRIDS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
ELKO COUNTY. ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFFECTS ON
TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL. ROADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET, WITH AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHORTWAVE EXITS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
VERY WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THAT SAID, THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY APPROACHING
NW NEVADA SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES, SPREADING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN AVERAGE
ABOUT 1/2-1 INCH, MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. INCREASED
POP GRIDS TO LIKELY FOLLOWING ECMWF`S QPF DEPICTION, BUT AGAIN
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAINLY WET ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND THICK CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOONS SEASONABLY COLD
AND SUNSHINE AT A PREMIUM.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE EC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AND
OVER THE NE PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RIDGE SHOULD HAVE AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SHOWERS INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF A COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...BUT DO INDICATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR MENTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KELY...KEKO AND KTPH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
FORM IN NE NV AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 172200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOUDY SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COLD. A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO VALLEY
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS MILDER AIR RETURNS TO NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THICK MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERSISTENT FOG OR LOW STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NE NEVADA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST
SUN AND SHORTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR, THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE
STRUGGLING TO BURN OFF. FOG OR LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING MID CLOUD DECKS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED TONIGHT. ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT STILL REPORTING 2
MILES VISIBILITY IN FOG AT 1 PM, SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A
FREEZING FOG MENTION AT LEAST THIS EVENING, AND ADVISE THE NEXT
SHIFT TO MONITOR. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NW NEVADA TONIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR RENO BY SUNSET. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SW ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NE NEVADA. NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
SEASONABLE COLD IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY DEPARTS EASTERN NEVADA EARLY, ALLOWING
THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO ENTER NW NEVADA BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH LIGHT WET SNOW FOCUSING IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP GRIDS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
ELKO COUNTY. ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFFECTS ON
TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL. ROADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET, WITH AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHORTWAVE EXITS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
VERY WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THAT SAID, THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY APPROACHING
NW NEVADA SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES, SPREADING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN AVERAGE
ABOUT 1/2-1 INCH, MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. INCREASED
POP GRIDS TO LIKELY FOLLOWING ECMWF`S QPF DEPICTION, BUT AGAIN
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAINLY WET ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND THICK CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOONS SEASONABLY COLD
AND SUNSHINE AT A PREMIUM.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE EC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AND
OVER THE NE PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RIDGE SHOULD HAVE AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SHOWERS INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF A COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...BUT DO INDICATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR MENTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KELY...KEKO AND KTPH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
FORM IN NE NV AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87




000
FXUS65 KVEF 171806
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1005 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEARING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN INYO COUNTY THIS
MORNING AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WAS
CANCELLED. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SNOW SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. QPF GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TODAY FOR MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THE SYSTEM FIZZLED AS
ENERGY DUG FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5K FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND THE TERMINAL. GENERALLY LIGHTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
236 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT...
STRONGER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA PER SATELLITE DATA
AND RADAR RETURNS OUT OF HANFORD, SAN DIEGO AND EDWARDS. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN CONFINED THE AREAS WEST OF THE SIERRA DOWN
THROUGH LOS ANGELES WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS CWA WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT PANNING OUT AS OF YET BUT REALLY THE BULK OF MOISTURE HAS YET TO
ARRIVE AND BY THE END OF THE DAY, SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR EXCEED AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE
VARIOUS MODEL QPF FORECASTS, PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 4 AM THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AS DOES THE OTHER LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN INYO, SOUTHERN
NYE, CLARK, SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE
FROM .20-.40 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE WARMER
MORNING LOWS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 171806
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1005 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEARING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN INYO COUNTY THIS
MORNING AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WAS
CANCELLED. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SNOW SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. QPF GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TODAY FOR MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THE SYSTEM FIZZLED AS
ENERGY DUG FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5K FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND THE TERMINAL. GENERALLY LIGHTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
236 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT...
STRONGER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA PER SATELLITE DATA
AND RADAR RETURNS OUT OF HANFORD, SAN DIEGO AND EDWARDS. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN CONFINED THE AREAS WEST OF THE SIERRA DOWN
THROUGH LOS ANGELES WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS CWA WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT PANNING OUT AS OF YET BUT REALLY THE BULK OF MOISTURE HAS YET TO
ARRIVE AND BY THE END OF THE DAY, SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR EXCEED AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE
VARIOUS MODEL QPF FORECASTS, PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 4 AM THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AS DOES THE OTHER LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN INYO, SOUTHERN
NYE, CLARK, SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE
FROM .20-.40 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE WARMER
MORNING LOWS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 171806
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1005 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEARING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN INYO COUNTY THIS
MORNING AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WAS
CANCELLED. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SNOW SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. QPF GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TODAY FOR MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THE SYSTEM FIZZLED AS
ENERGY DUG FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5K FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND THE TERMINAL. GENERALLY LIGHTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
236 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT...
STRONGER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA PER SATELLITE DATA
AND RADAR RETURNS OUT OF HANFORD, SAN DIEGO AND EDWARDS. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN CONFINED THE AREAS WEST OF THE SIERRA DOWN
THROUGH LOS ANGELES WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS CWA WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT PANNING OUT AS OF YET BUT REALLY THE BULK OF MOISTURE HAS YET TO
ARRIVE AND BY THE END OF THE DAY, SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR EXCEED AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE
VARIOUS MODEL QPF FORECASTS, PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 4 AM THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AS DOES THE OTHER LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN INYO, SOUTHERN
NYE, CLARK, SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE
FROM .20-.40 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE WARMER
MORNING LOWS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 171806
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1005 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEARING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN INYO COUNTY THIS
MORNING AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WAS
CANCELLED. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SNOW SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. QPF GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TODAY FOR MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THE SYSTEM FIZZLED AS
ENERGY DUG FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5K FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND THE TERMINAL. GENERALLY LIGHTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
236 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT...
STRONGER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA PER SATELLITE DATA
AND RADAR RETURNS OUT OF HANFORD, SAN DIEGO AND EDWARDS. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN CONFINED THE AREAS WEST OF THE SIERRA DOWN
THROUGH LOS ANGELES WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS CWA WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT PANNING OUT AS OF YET BUT REALLY THE BULK OF MOISTURE HAS YET TO
ARRIVE AND BY THE END OF THE DAY, SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR EXCEED AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE
VARIOUS MODEL QPF FORECASTS, PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 4 AM THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AS DOES THE OTHER LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN INYO, SOUTHERN
NYE, CLARK, SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE
FROM .20-.40 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE WARMER
MORNING LOWS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KREV 171735
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST EAST OF THE SIERRA
TODAY WHILE SHOWERS ARE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD IN THE SIERRA NOW.
HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND POPS EAST OF THE SIERRA FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. THERE ARE SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NOW. THESE ARE IN MOIST FLOW BETWEEN AN
EXITING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NEVADA AND AN APPROACHING WAVE
MOVING TOWARD THE CA COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS APPROACHING WAVE. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE TAHOE. THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS AROUND MOUNT
ROSE AND JUST NORTH OF WASHOE VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SOME SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ON MOUNT
ROSE HIGHWAY AND I-580 BETWEEN RENO AND CARSON CITY. HOON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER JET AND SYSTEM UPSTREAM IS DIVING SOUTH AND
BREAKING UP/SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA TO FALL APART EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE
BASIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA TODAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING SHADOWED OUT FOR WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA. MAIN IMPACT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS
SIERRA AND MOUNTAIN PASSES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. KEEP UPDATED WITH ROAD CONDITIONS VIA NDOT AND
CALTRANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE REGION A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
MODEST AT THIS TIME, AS JET ORIENTATION WILL NOT PROMOTE THE
DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND A 0.10
TO 0.2 INCHES FROM PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAY RESULT IN
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS NOT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG STORM, BUT
IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINTRY
ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY RIDGE, DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING
FAR NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. HOON

AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIG
FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS STORM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. FOR KRNO/KCXP...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VIS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT TURBULENCE/ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 171735
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST EAST OF THE SIERRA
TODAY WHILE SHOWERS ARE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD IN THE SIERRA NOW.
HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND POPS EAST OF THE SIERRA FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. THERE ARE SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NOW. THESE ARE IN MOIST FLOW BETWEEN AN
EXITING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NEVADA AND AN APPROACHING WAVE
MOVING TOWARD THE CA COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS APPROACHING WAVE. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE TAHOE. THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS AROUND MOUNT
ROSE AND JUST NORTH OF WASHOE VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SOME SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ON MOUNT
ROSE HIGHWAY AND I-580 BETWEEN RENO AND CARSON CITY. HOON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER JET AND SYSTEM UPSTREAM IS DIVING SOUTH AND
BREAKING UP/SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA TO FALL APART EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE
BASIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA TODAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING SHADOWED OUT FOR WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA. MAIN IMPACT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS
SIERRA AND MOUNTAIN PASSES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. KEEP UPDATED WITH ROAD CONDITIONS VIA NDOT AND
CALTRANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE REGION A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
MODEST AT THIS TIME, AS JET ORIENTATION WILL NOT PROMOTE THE
DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND A 0.10
TO 0.2 INCHES FROM PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAY RESULT IN
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS NOT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG STORM, BUT
IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINTRY
ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY RIDGE, DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING
FAR NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. HOON

AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIG
FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS STORM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. FOR KRNO/KCXP...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VIS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT TURBULENCE/ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 171735
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST EAST OF THE SIERRA
TODAY WHILE SHOWERS ARE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD IN THE SIERRA NOW.
HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND POPS EAST OF THE SIERRA FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. THERE ARE SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NOW. THESE ARE IN MOIST FLOW BETWEEN AN
EXITING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NEVADA AND AN APPROACHING WAVE
MOVING TOWARD THE CA COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS APPROACHING WAVE. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE TAHOE. THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS AROUND MOUNT
ROSE AND JUST NORTH OF WASHOE VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SOME SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ON MOUNT
ROSE HIGHWAY AND I-580 BETWEEN RENO AND CARSON CITY. HOON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER JET AND SYSTEM UPSTREAM IS DIVING SOUTH AND
BREAKING UP/SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA TO FALL APART EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE
BASIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA TODAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING SHADOWED OUT FOR WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA. MAIN IMPACT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS
SIERRA AND MOUNTAIN PASSES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. KEEP UPDATED WITH ROAD CONDITIONS VIA NDOT AND
CALTRANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE REGION A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
MODEST AT THIS TIME, AS JET ORIENTATION WILL NOT PROMOTE THE
DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND A 0.10
TO 0.2 INCHES FROM PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAY RESULT IN
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS NOT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG STORM, BUT
IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINTRY
ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY RIDGE, DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING
FAR NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. HOON

AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIG
FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS STORM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. FOR KRNO/KCXP...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VIS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT TURBULENCE/ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 171735
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST EAST OF THE SIERRA
TODAY WHILE SHOWERS ARE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD IN THE SIERRA NOW.
HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND POPS EAST OF THE SIERRA FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. THERE ARE SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NOW. THESE ARE IN MOIST FLOW BETWEEN AN
EXITING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NEVADA AND AN APPROACHING WAVE
MOVING TOWARD THE CA COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS APPROACHING WAVE. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE TAHOE. THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS AROUND MOUNT
ROSE AND JUST NORTH OF WASHOE VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SOME SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ON MOUNT
ROSE HIGHWAY AND I-580 BETWEEN RENO AND CARSON CITY. HOON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER JET AND SYSTEM UPSTREAM IS DIVING SOUTH AND
BREAKING UP/SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA TO FALL APART EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE
BASIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA TODAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING SHADOWED OUT FOR WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA. MAIN IMPACT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS
SIERRA AND MOUNTAIN PASSES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. KEEP UPDATED WITH ROAD CONDITIONS VIA NDOT AND
CALTRANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE REGION A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
MODEST AT THIS TIME, AS JET ORIENTATION WILL NOT PROMOTE THE
DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND A 0.10
TO 0.2 INCHES FROM PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAY RESULT IN
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS NOT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG STORM, BUT
IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINTRY
ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY RIDGE, DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING
FAR NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. HOON

AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIG
FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS STORM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. FOR KRNO/KCXP...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VIS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT TURBULENCE/ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KLKN 171731
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
931 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...FREEZING FOG REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN ELKO
COUNTY AS OF 9 30 AM, WITH THE ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT CONTINUING TO
REPORT 1/4-1/2 MILE VISIBILITY AND IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE REVEALS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THE FOG ERODING, WHICH MAKES
SENSE WITH THE WEAKEST SUN OF THE YEAR AND CIRRUS ALOFT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO INCLUDE FREEZING FOG THROUGH 1 PM FOR NOW, HOPEFULLY IT
WILL BE ABLE TO BURN OFF BY THEN, BUT IT MAY NOT. FOG MAY ALSO
QUICKLY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN`T COMPLETELY
BURN IT OFF THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN`T CHANGE TEMPERATURES YET, BUT
THEY WILL BE AFFECTED IF WE DON`T START GETTING SOME SUN SOON.
WILL ALSO ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATED NOWCAST TO ADDRESS FOG TRENDS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 352 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
RESULTING IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. THE
FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV TODAY AFFECTING CENTRAL NV AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A SECOND WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, AND WILL AGAIN MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NV.
ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT VEERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA...EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KWMC...KELY...AND
KTPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FREEZING FOG AT KEKO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AT KEKO WITH FOG
DISSIPATING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 171731
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
931 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...FREEZING FOG REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN ELKO
COUNTY AS OF 9 30 AM, WITH THE ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT CONTINUING TO
REPORT 1/4-1/2 MILE VISIBILITY AND IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE REVEALS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THE FOG ERODING, WHICH MAKES
SENSE WITH THE WEAKEST SUN OF THE YEAR AND CIRRUS ALOFT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO INCLUDE FREEZING FOG THROUGH 1 PM FOR NOW, HOPEFULLY IT
WILL BE ABLE TO BURN OFF BY THEN, BUT IT MAY NOT. FOG MAY ALSO
QUICKLY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN`T COMPLETELY
BURN IT OFF THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN`T CHANGE TEMPERATURES YET, BUT
THEY WILL BE AFFECTED IF WE DON`T START GETTING SOME SUN SOON.
WILL ALSO ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATED NOWCAST TO ADDRESS FOG TRENDS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 352 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
RESULTING IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. THE
FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV TODAY AFFECTING CENTRAL NV AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A SECOND WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, AND WILL AGAIN MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NV.
ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT VEERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA...EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KWMC...KELY...AND
KTPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FREEZING FOG AT KEKO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AT KEKO WITH FOG
DISSIPATING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KREV 171201 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
401 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE TAHOE. THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS AROUND MOUNT
ROSE AND JUST NORTH OF WASHOE VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SOME SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ON MOUNT
ROSE HIGHWAY AND I-580 BETWEEN RENO AND CARSON CITY. HOON


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER JET AND SYSTEM UPSTREAM IS DIVING SOUTH AND
BREAKING UP/SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA TO FALL APART EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE
BASIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA TODAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING SHADOWED OUT FOR WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA. MAIN IMPACT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS
SIERRA AND MOUNTAIN PASSES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. KEEP UPDATED WITH ROAD CONDITIONS VIA NDOT AND
CALTRANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE REGION A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
MODEST AT THIS TIME, AS JET ORIENTATION WILL NOT PROMOTE THE
DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND A 0.10
TO 0.2 INCHES FROM PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAY RESULT IN
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS NOT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG STORM, BUT
IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINTRY
ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY RIDGE, DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING
FAR NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. HOON

AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIG
FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS STORM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. FOR KRNO/KCXP...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VIS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT TURBULENCE/ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 171201 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
401 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE TAHOE. THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS AROUND MOUNT
ROSE AND JUST NORTH OF WASHOE VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SOME SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ON MOUNT
ROSE HIGHWAY AND I-580 BETWEEN RENO AND CARSON CITY. HOON


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER JET AND SYSTEM UPSTREAM IS DIVING SOUTH AND
BREAKING UP/SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA TO FALL APART EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE
BASIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA TODAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING SHADOWED OUT FOR WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA. MAIN IMPACT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS
SIERRA AND MOUNTAIN PASSES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. KEEP UPDATED WITH ROAD CONDITIONS VIA NDOT AND
CALTRANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE REGION A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
MODEST AT THIS TIME, AS JET ORIENTATION WILL NOT PROMOTE THE
DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND A 0.10
TO 0.2 INCHES FROM PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAY RESULT IN
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS NOT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG STORM, BUT
IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINTRY
ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY RIDGE, DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING
FAR NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. HOON

AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIG
FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS STORM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. FOR KRNO/KCXP...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VIS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT TURBULENCE/ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KLKN 171152
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
RESULTING IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. THE
FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV TODAY AFFECTING CENTRAL NV AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A SECOND WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, AND WILL AGAIN MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NV.
ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT VEERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA...EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KWMC...KELY...AND
KTPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FREEZING FOG AT KEKO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AT KEKO WITH FOG
DISSIPATING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 171152
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
RESULTING IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. THE
FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV TODAY AFFECTING CENTRAL NV AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A SECOND WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, AND WILL AGAIN MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NV.
ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT VEERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA...EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KWMC...KELY...AND
KTPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FREEZING FOG AT KEKO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AT KEKO WITH FOG
DISSIPATING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 171152
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
RESULTING IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. THE
FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV TODAY AFFECTING CENTRAL NV AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A SECOND WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, AND WILL AGAIN MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NV.
ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT VEERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA...EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KWMC...KELY...AND
KTPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FREEZING FOG AT KEKO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AT KEKO WITH FOG
DISSIPATING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 171152
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
RESULTING IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. THE
FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV TODAY AFFECTING CENTRAL NV AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A SECOND WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, AND WILL AGAIN MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NV.
ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT VEERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA...EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KWMC...KELY...AND
KTPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FREEZING FOG AT KEKO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AT KEKO WITH FOG
DISSIPATING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96




000
FXUS65 KREV 171104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER JET AND SYSTEM UPSTREAM IS DIVING SOUTH AND
BREAKING UP/SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA TO FALL APART EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE
BASIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA TODAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING SHADOWED OUT FOR WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA. MAIN IMPACT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS
SIERRA AND MOUNTAIN PASSES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. KEEP UPDATED WITH ROAD CONDITIONS VIA NDOT AND
CALTRANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE REGION A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
MODEST AT THIS TIME, AS JET ORIENTATION WILL NOT PROMOTE THE
DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND A 0.10
TO 0.2 INCHES FROM PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAY RESULT IN
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS NOT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG STORM, BUT
IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINTRY
ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY RIDGE, DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING
FAR NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIG
FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS STORM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. FOR KRNO/KCXP...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VIS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT TURBULENCE/ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 171036
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
236 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT...
STRONGER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA PER SATELLITE DATA
AND RADAR RETURNS OUT OF HANFORD, SAN DIEGO AND EDWARDS. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN CONFINED THE AREAS WEST OF THE SIERRA DOWN
THROUGH LOS ANGELES WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS CWA WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT PANNING OUT AS OF YET BUT REALLY THE BULK OF MOISTURE HAS YET TO
ARRIVE AND BY THE END OF THE DAY, SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR EXCEED AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE
VARIOUS MODEL QPF FORECASTS, PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 4 AM THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AS DOES THE OTHER LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN INYO, SOUTHERN
NYE, CLARK, SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE
FROM .20-.40 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE WARMER
MORNING LOWS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL. CIGS AROUND 5K
ARE EXPECTED BUT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO CLARK COUNTY LATER THIS
MORNING COULD LOWER CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET. LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHTS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 171036
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
236 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT...
STRONGER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA PER SATELLITE DATA
AND RADAR RETURNS OUT OF HANFORD, SAN DIEGO AND EDWARDS. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN CONFINED THE AREAS WEST OF THE SIERRA DOWN
THROUGH LOS ANGELES WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS CWA WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT PANNING OUT AS OF YET BUT REALLY THE BULK OF MOISTURE HAS YET TO
ARRIVE AND BY THE END OF THE DAY, SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR EXCEED AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE
VARIOUS MODEL QPF FORECASTS, PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 4 AM THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AS DOES THE OTHER LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN INYO, SOUTHERN
NYE, CLARK, SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE
FROM .20-.40 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE WARMER
MORNING LOWS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL. CIGS AROUND 5K
ARE EXPECTED BUT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO CLARK COUNTY LATER THIS
MORNING COULD LOWER CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET. LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHTS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KREV 170626
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1026 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY HAS BEEN THINNING
OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR, WITH SATELLITE DATA SHOWING WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. SO FAR ONLY LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED THIS ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MOST ROADS APPEAR TO BE
WET BASED ON WEB CAMS WITH SNOW STICKING TO ROADS ABOVE 6500-7000
FEET. SLICK AND ICY CONDITIONS WILL STILL IMPACT TRAVEL ON I-80,
US-50, CA-36, 49, 89 AND 88 TONIGHT.

LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISPERSE
INTO SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES UP THE WESTERN SLOPES NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 88/CARSON PASS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE CREST, ESPECIALLY IN THE TAHOE
BASIN. SOUTH OF CARSON PASS THERE IS MORE LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN
THE MODELS, SO THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE
CREST IN MONO COUNTY WHERE 4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BRONG

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
SNOW IS UNLIKELY, SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN OUR SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IMPULSE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
LOOKS GOOD COMING INTO THE COAST A BACKSIDE JET STREAK IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ELONGATE AND SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION, FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA. WHILE THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST-WEST IN THE SIERRA FOR BETTER OROGRAPHIC FORCING, IT
WILL BE NEAR TROUGH PASSAGE SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WEAKENING FORCING WILL NOT PREVENT THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (ABOVE ~4500 FEET) FROM RECEIVING SOME SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION
SUCH THAT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SIERRA. THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS UNNECESSARY AND WILL RELY ON HEADS UP GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
POSTS TO GET THE WORD OUT THAT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ROADS. REMEMBER: THE LACK OF AN
ADVISORY DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE SOME IMPACTS SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST, WEBPAGE GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS
TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST IMPACTS.

THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN
END (BASIN AND RANGE), OR AT LEAST A REDUCTION TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
(SIERRA) FOR THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD
AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF BRING ONE MORE PARTING SHOT OF SHOWERS (WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION)
TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA BEFORE THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. SNYDER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM A GULF
OF ALASKA LOW, SWINGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE
BASIN, WITH LIQUID AMOUNTS 0.10-0.20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
PLUMAS/LASSEN/MODOC COUNTIES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER JET SUPPORT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DRIEST FORECASTS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
WA/OR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL NOW HAS STRONGER JET SUPPORT
AND INDICATES A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE TAHOE BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
BECAUSE THIS IS NOT A STRONG STORM, WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FOR NOW.

FOR SATURDAY, THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A NORTHERLY UPPER JET WARRANTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. FOR THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER CA/NV BRINGING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AS SUCH, VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AIR
QUALITY ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. JCM

AVIATION...

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SIERRA TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS AT KTRK/KTVL/KMMH AFTER 03Z-06Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO SNOW EXPECTED FROM 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. FOR ACCUMULATIONS, 2-4"
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KTRK/KTVL/KMMH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR
KRNO/KCXP...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT RESTRICTIONS
TO CIG/VIS ARE UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 170626
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1026 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY HAS BEEN THINNING
OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR, WITH SATELLITE DATA SHOWING WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. SO FAR ONLY LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED THIS ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MOST ROADS APPEAR TO BE
WET BASED ON WEB CAMS WITH SNOW STICKING TO ROADS ABOVE 6500-7000
FEET. SLICK AND ICY CONDITIONS WILL STILL IMPACT TRAVEL ON I-80,
US-50, CA-36, 49, 89 AND 88 TONIGHT.

LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISPERSE
INTO SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES UP THE WESTERN SLOPES NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 88/CARSON PASS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE CREST, ESPECIALLY IN THE TAHOE
BASIN. SOUTH OF CARSON PASS THERE IS MORE LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN
THE MODELS, SO THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE
CREST IN MONO COUNTY WHERE 4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BRONG

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
SNOW IS UNLIKELY, SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN OUR SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IMPULSE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
LOOKS GOOD COMING INTO THE COAST A BACKSIDE JET STREAK IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ELONGATE AND SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION, FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA. WHILE THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST-WEST IN THE SIERRA FOR BETTER OROGRAPHIC FORCING, IT
WILL BE NEAR TROUGH PASSAGE SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WEAKENING FORCING WILL NOT PREVENT THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (ABOVE ~4500 FEET) FROM RECEIVING SOME SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION
SUCH THAT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SIERRA. THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS UNNECESSARY AND WILL RELY ON HEADS UP GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
POSTS TO GET THE WORD OUT THAT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ROADS. REMEMBER: THE LACK OF AN
ADVISORY DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE SOME IMPACTS SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST, WEBPAGE GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS
TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST IMPACTS.

THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN
END (BASIN AND RANGE), OR AT LEAST A REDUCTION TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
(SIERRA) FOR THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD
AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF BRING ONE MORE PARTING SHOT OF SHOWERS (WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION)
TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA BEFORE THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. SNYDER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM A GULF
OF ALASKA LOW, SWINGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE
BASIN, WITH LIQUID AMOUNTS 0.10-0.20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
PLUMAS/LASSEN/MODOC COUNTIES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER JET SUPPORT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DRIEST FORECASTS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
WA/OR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL NOW HAS STRONGER JET SUPPORT
AND INDICATES A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE TAHOE BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
BECAUSE THIS IS NOT A STRONG STORM, WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FOR NOW.

FOR SATURDAY, THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A NORTHERLY UPPER JET WARRANTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. FOR THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER CA/NV BRINGING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AS SUCH, VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AIR
QUALITY ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. JCM

AVIATION...

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SIERRA TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS AT KTRK/KTVL/KMMH AFTER 03Z-06Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO SNOW EXPECTED FROM 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. FOR ACCUMULATIONS, 2-4"
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KTRK/KTVL/KMMH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR
KRNO/KCXP...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT RESTRICTIONS
TO CIG/VIS ARE UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 170457 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
857 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS HOT ON ITS HEELS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ITS MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SIERRA, SHEEP RANGE,
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 10 PM PST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, SKY, QPF AND WEATHER
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD STILL TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WILL LIKELY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. RAIN
SHOWERS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 170457 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
857 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS HOT ON ITS HEELS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ITS MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SIERRA, SHEEP RANGE,
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 10 PM PST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, SKY, QPF AND WEATHER
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD STILL TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WILL LIKELY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. RAIN
SHOWERS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 170457 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
857 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS HOT ON ITS HEELS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ITS MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SIERRA, SHEEP RANGE,
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 10 PM PST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, SKY, QPF AND WEATHER
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD STILL TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WILL LIKELY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. RAIN
SHOWERS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 170457 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
857 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS HOT ON ITS HEELS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ITS MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SIERRA, SHEEP RANGE,
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 10 PM PST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, SKY, QPF AND WEATHER
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD STILL TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WILL LIKELY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. RAIN
SHOWERS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 170457 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
857 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS HOT ON ITS HEELS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ITS MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SIERRA, SHEEP RANGE,
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 10 PM PST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, SKY, QPF AND WEATHER
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD STILL TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WILL LIKELY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. RAIN
SHOWERS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 170457 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
857 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS HOT ON ITS HEELS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ITS MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SIERRA, SHEEP RANGE,
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 10 PM PST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, SKY, QPF AND WEATHER
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD STILL TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WILL LIKELY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. RAIN
SHOWERS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 170058 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
458 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UP INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL
AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA LIKELY BRINGING RAIN AND
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY THEN PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KLKN 162327
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
327 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STORM SYSTEMS SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH OR
SOUTH. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SYSTEM WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
IS NOW SLIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON THE BACK SIDE HAS KEPT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS GOING SO
ALLOWED FOR FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS A
MUCH BROADER AREA OF NORTHERN NEVADA THAN I EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO EVEN BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT DESPITE THE
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
PACIFIC...BUT ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN MANY VALLEYS
TO FALL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND IN SOME CASES...THE TEENS.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH MOST ENERGY
MISSING US. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT CERTAINLY NOT
CONVINCED OF IT. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
WHICH MAY PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ALSO KEPT
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE...AS MOST MODELS SHOW PRECIP
FALLING APART AS IT CROSSES THE SIERRA. ELSEWHERE...KEEP WEATHER
DRY AND EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME SUN IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH 30S COMMON.

THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SLIDES AWAY FROM US WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH ITS MAIN
CROSSING OF OUR AREA HAPPENING ON THURSDAY. THIS MEANS POPS SHOULD
DROP IN CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE
POPS WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE NORTH. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP...BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD GRACE NORTHERN NEVADA ON
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WITH NO REAL AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER...THEN NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY
PUSH INTO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL START SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAK AND DON`T EXPECT
ANYTHING ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT. ONCE AGAIN...NO AIRMASS CHANGE
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. RCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NV FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE H5 FLOW
SPLITS AND SHEARS APART BY 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC SLOWER AND
KEEPS THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN AT 12Z AND THEN PUSHES THE
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER 18Z.
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTION KEEPING POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING WARM ADVECTION PRECIP ALONG THE ID-NV
BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY...THEN INTO NE NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY.
BY MONDAY...RIDGE WILL HAVE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF ELKO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/87/87



000
FXUS65 KLKN 162327
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
327 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STORM SYSTEMS SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH OR
SOUTH. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SYSTEM WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
IS NOW SLIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON THE BACK SIDE HAS KEPT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS GOING SO
ALLOWED FOR FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS A
MUCH BROADER AREA OF NORTHERN NEVADA THAN I EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO EVEN BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT DESPITE THE
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
PACIFIC...BUT ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN MANY VALLEYS
TO FALL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND IN SOME CASES...THE TEENS.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH MOST ENERGY
MISSING US. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT CERTAINLY NOT
CONVINCED OF IT. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
WHICH MAY PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ALSO KEPT
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE...AS MOST MODELS SHOW PRECIP
FALLING APART AS IT CROSSES THE SIERRA. ELSEWHERE...KEEP WEATHER
DRY AND EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME SUN IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH 30S COMMON.

THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SLIDES AWAY FROM US WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH ITS MAIN
CROSSING OF OUR AREA HAPPENING ON THURSDAY. THIS MEANS POPS SHOULD
DROP IN CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE
POPS WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE NORTH. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP...BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD GRACE NORTHERN NEVADA ON
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WITH NO REAL AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER...THEN NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY
PUSH INTO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL START SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAK AND DON`T EXPECT
ANYTHING ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT. ONCE AGAIN...NO AIRMASS CHANGE
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. RCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NV FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE H5 FLOW
SPLITS AND SHEARS APART BY 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC SLOWER AND
KEEPS THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN AT 12Z AND THEN PUSHES THE
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER 18Z.
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTION KEEPING POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING WARM ADVECTION PRECIP ALONG THE ID-NV
BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY...THEN INTO NE NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY.
BY MONDAY...RIDGE WILL HAVE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF ELKO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/87/87




000
FXUS65 KREV 162257
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE SIERRA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM ARRIVING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED, SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN OUR SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IMPULSE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
LOOKS GOOD COMING INTO THE COAST A BACKSIDE JET STREAK IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ELONGATE AND SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION, FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA. WHILE THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST-WEST IN THE SIERRA FOR BETTER OROGRAPHIC FORCING, IT
WILL BE NEAR TROUGH PASSAGE SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WEAKENING FORCING WILL NOT PREVENT THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (ABOVE ~4500 FEET) FROM RECEIVING SOME SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION
SUCH THAT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SIERRA. THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS UNNECESSARY AND WILL RELY ON HEADS UP GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
POSTS TO GET THE WORD OUT THAT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ROADS. REMEMBER: THE LACK OF AN
ADVISORY DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE SOME IMPACTS SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST, WEBPAGE GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS
TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST IMPACTS.

THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN
END (BASIN AND RANGE), OR AT LEAST A REDUCTION TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
(SIERRA) FOR THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD
AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF BRING ONE MORE PARTING SHOT OF SHOWERS (WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION)
TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA BEFORE THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM A GULF
OF ALASKA LOW, SWINGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE
BASIN, WITH LIQUID AMOUNTS 0.10-0.20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
PLUMAS/LASSEN/MODOC COUNTIES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER JET SUPPORT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DRIEST FORECASTS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
WA/OR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL NOW HAS STRONGER JET SUPPORT
AND INDICATES A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE TAHOE BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
BECAUSE THIS IS NOT A STRONG STORM, WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FOR NOW.

FOR SATURDAY, THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A NORTHERLY UPPER JET WARRANTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. FOR THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER CA/NV BRINGING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AS SUCH, VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AIR
QUALITY ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SIERRA TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS AT KTRK/KTVL/KMMH AFTER 03Z-06Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO SNOW EXPECTED FROM 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. FOR ACCUMULATIONS, 2-4"
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KTRK/KTVL/KMMH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR
KRNO/KCXP...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT RESTRICTIONS
TO CIG/VIS ARE UNLIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND ICING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. JCM

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KVEF 162236
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UP INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL
AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA LIKELY BRINGING RAIN AND
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY THEN PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 162236
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UP INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL
AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA LIKELY BRINGING RAIN AND
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY THEN PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 162236
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UP INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL
AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA LIKELY BRINGING RAIN AND
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY THEN PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 162236
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN TO THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FEW FEATURES CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN L.A. AND SAN DIEGO REVEALS A CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
SPREADING FROM COASTAL AREAS UP INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THESE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AFTER LATE THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
CONFINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET OF 4-7 INCHES
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NOW CARVE OUT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FURTHER
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT CROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WARMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UP INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINAL
AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA LIKELY BRINGING RAIN AND
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS AND BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY THEN PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






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