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000
FXUS65 KVEF 030331
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
831 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CIRCULATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DISORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED AROUND IT. CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED
QUICKLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE LATEST HIGH RES FORECASTS
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THEN
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING SUNSET.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS
THE WEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING 5-8 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL 3-5
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE LARGE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MEANDERING
EASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CHANCES SPREAD
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
PUSHING THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
THEN FINALLY INTO UTAH AND COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN WITH THE LOW EAST OF OUR AREA, MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SO, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND WARMER MONDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AFTER 03Z. EXPECT SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
SCT-BKN 6-8K FEET BKN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS AROUND ANY TSTORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
SHOWERS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOB 20K FEET ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS UNDER
10KTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 030331
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
831 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CIRCULATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DISORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED AROUND IT. CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED
QUICKLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE LATEST HIGH RES FORECASTS
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THEN
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING SUNSET.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS
THE WEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING 5-8 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL 3-5
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE LARGE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MEANDERING
EASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CHANCES SPREAD
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
PUSHING THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
THEN FINALLY INTO UTAH AND COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN WITH THE LOW EAST OF OUR AREA, MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SO, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND WARMER MONDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AFTER 03Z. EXPECT SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
SCT-BKN 6-8K FEET BKN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS AROUND ANY TSTORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
SHOWERS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOB 20K FEET ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS UNDER
10KTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



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000
FXUS65 KLKN 022241
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK MAY BRING MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TREND COLDER WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 10K FEET HAS LEAD TO PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION FROM 10K-11K FEET WHICH IS INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST CAP IS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH A MUCH WEAKER CAP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH VERY LIMITED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IF ANY. DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.
CLOUDS REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUMBOLDT
AND FAR WESTERN LANDER COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SPLITTING TROUGH ENERGY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY. MOST STORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER HUMBOLDT...LANDER
EUREKA...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY WEST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAIN RANGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS TROUGH ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
CLOUD COVER BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SHOULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S...MAKING TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THE
COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH 30S IN MOST VALLEYS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WET WEATHER WILL
CHARACTERIZE MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST PUTTING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV UNDER WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS 7500 FEET
OR HIGHER RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS. IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ON MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION WITH
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER CENTRAL NV THRU 02Z. WILL COVER THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS AT
THE KTPH AND KELY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR THESE AND
OTHER SMALL STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS
THAT COULD MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM PALISADE TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/91/91



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000
FXUS65 KREV 022208
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
308 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, then
thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday with a few
strong storms possible by Wednesday. More widespread rain and high
elevation snow, with possible thunderstorms may continue Thursday
and into the weekend as low pressure remains over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Unsettled weather pattern will remain over the region through the
rest of the week as low pressure drops into the Western U.S. A
few isolated showers will continue in the Sierra this evening,
maybe an isolated thunderstorm, but overall shower activity will
be weak.

A large area of low pressure will move into the California Coast
Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing instability and moisture.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday
and Wednesday. A strong 100kt jet will push into our area with
good upper level diffluence. This will increase thunderstorm
coverage on Tuesday and potentially some stronger, more organized
storms on Wednesday as the left exit region moves over the Sierra
and western NV. Heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the best chances being on Wednesday. There may be a limiting
of convection on Wednesday if we get too much cloud cover,
although with the dynamics of this jet/low pressure system we
should at least see isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Shower activity will continue Wednesday night into Thursday as low
pressure continues to send moisture into the region. A deformation
zone looks set up over the region on Thursday, with widespread
moderate rainfall and localized areas of heavier rainfall within
the convective/deformation bands. Heaviest precipitation looks to
be around the Reno-Carson City-Minden-Lake Tahoe areas, although
this may shift north or south as we get closer to the event.

Latest operational model runs and ensembles continue to be in
good agreement overall with high chances for rain, thunderstorms,
and high elevation snow. Forecaster confidence is fairly high
regarding these wet conditions into Thursday night, although
details on the location of heaviest precipitation is only medium
for now. Hoon

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

A slow moving upper low will remain across the region and provide
potential for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The
core of the low will dip south near Las Vegas leaving western Nevada
and the northern Sierra within a region of wrap around moisture and
precipitation. Instability should be sufficient to maintain
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with
diminishing chances Sunday into Monday.

Ensemble spreads and model consistency remain well behaved so
confidence remains good that we will remain in a wet and cool
pattern through the weekend. Snow levels Friday will begin around
7,000 feet Friday and will rise through the weekend as the low
begins to pull away. Nonetheless, heavier banded precipitation could
locally drag down snow levels and may still create snow
accumulations with travel impacts across higher Sierra passes this
weekend. Otherwise, mainly looking for rain showers with scattered
thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rain and abundant
small hail. Additional periods of heavy rainfall during this wet
period may also result in rises in some small creeks and streams.

Those with outdoor recreation plans this weekend should be prepared
for rapidly changing conditions in and near showers and storms.
Those on the lake waters and with other outdoor recreation plans
will be subject to lightning/small hail/heavy rain through Sunday.
The low should pull far enough east by Monday so most shower and
storm activity should come to close. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers will prevail through early evening but
precipitation should remain on the lighter side. Otherwise, light
winds and VFR conditions expected through 18z Tuesday with another
round of lighter showers and thunderstorms mainly for Sierra
terminals Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities on Tuesday for KTRK/TVL
will remain around 30%/10%.

An approaching low pressure system will increase the chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday with widespread activity
expected by Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that these
showers and storms will be better organized and stronger. These
storms will have the potential of producing gusty of outflow winds,
abundant small hail, lightning, and rapid reductions in visibility
in and near storms. Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KREV 022208
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
308 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, then
thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday with a few
strong storms possible by Wednesday. More widespread rain and high
elevation snow, with possible thunderstorms may continue Thursday
and into the weekend as low pressure remains over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Unsettled weather pattern will remain over the region through the
rest of the week as low pressure drops into the Western U.S. A
few isolated showers will continue in the Sierra this evening,
maybe an isolated thunderstorm, but overall shower activity will
be weak.

A large area of low pressure will move into the California Coast
Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing instability and moisture.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday
and Wednesday. A strong 100kt jet will push into our area with
good upper level diffluence. This will increase thunderstorm
coverage on Tuesday and potentially some stronger, more organized
storms on Wednesday as the left exit region moves over the Sierra
and western NV. Heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the best chances being on Wednesday. There may be a limiting
of convection on Wednesday if we get too much cloud cover,
although with the dynamics of this jet/low pressure system we
should at least see isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Shower activity will continue Wednesday night into Thursday as low
pressure continues to send moisture into the region. A deformation
zone looks set up over the region on Thursday, with widespread
moderate rainfall and localized areas of heavier rainfall within
the convective/deformation bands. Heaviest precipitation looks to
be around the Reno-Carson City-Minden-Lake Tahoe areas, although
this may shift north or south as we get closer to the event.

Latest operational model runs and ensembles continue to be in
good agreement overall with high chances for rain, thunderstorms,
and high elevation snow. Forecaster confidence is fairly high
regarding these wet conditions into Thursday night, although
details on the location of heaviest precipitation is only medium
for now. Hoon

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

A slow moving upper low will remain across the region and provide
potential for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The
core of the low will dip south near Las Vegas leaving western Nevada
and the northern Sierra within a region of wrap around moisture and
precipitation. Instability should be sufficient to maintain
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with
diminishing chances Sunday into Monday.

Ensemble spreads and model consistency remain well behaved so
confidence remains good that we will remain in a wet and cool
pattern through the weekend. Snow levels Friday will begin around
7,000 feet Friday and will rise through the weekend as the low
begins to pull away. Nonetheless, heavier banded precipitation could
locally drag down snow levels and may still create snow
accumulations with travel impacts across higher Sierra passes this
weekend. Otherwise, mainly looking for rain showers with scattered
thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rain and abundant
small hail. Additional periods of heavy rainfall during this wet
period may also result in rises in some small creeks and streams.

Those with outdoor recreation plans this weekend should be prepared
for rapidly changing conditions in and near showers and storms.
Those on the lake waters and with other outdoor recreation plans
will be subject to lightning/small hail/heavy rain through Sunday.
The low should pull far enough east by Monday so most shower and
storm activity should come to close. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers will prevail through early evening but
precipitation should remain on the lighter side. Otherwise, light
winds and VFR conditions expected through 18z Tuesday with another
round of lighter showers and thunderstorms mainly for Sierra
terminals Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities on Tuesday for KTRK/TVL
will remain around 30%/10%.

An approaching low pressure system will increase the chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday with widespread activity
expected by Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that these
showers and storms will be better organized and stronger. These
storms will have the potential of producing gusty of outflow winds,
abundant small hail, lightning, and rapid reductions in visibility
in and near storms. Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 022140
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CIRCULATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DISORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED AROUND IT. CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED
QUICKLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE LATEST HIGH RES FORECASTS
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THEN
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING SUNSET.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS
THE WEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING 5-8 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY AN ADDTIONAL 3-5
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE LARGE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MEANDERING
EASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CHANCES SPREAD
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
PUSHING THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
THEN FINALLY INTO UTAH AND COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN WITH THE LOW EAST OF OUR AREA, MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SO, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND WARMER MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AFTER 03Z. EXPECT SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
SCT-BKN 6-8K FEET BKN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS AROUND ANY TSTORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
SHOWERS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOB 20K FEET ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS UNDER
10KTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 021353
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
700 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. A STEADY WARMUP WILL OCCUR AS THE AREA
BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SLOW-
MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON
LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE.
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHERN INYO AND
NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. MESOANALYTICAL TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WEAKENING, PARTICULARLY IN
ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEVADA, WHERE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. NEVERTHELESS, HI-RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS PRECIP
POORLY OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST SIMULATIONS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
AND THOSE THAT DO (NAMELY, THE HRRR) WEAKENING THIS PRECIP TOO
RAPIDLY. AS SUCH, INCREASED POPS AND ASSOCIATED SKY COVER IN THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...RECENT HI-RES SIMULATIONS HAVE SUBTLY INCREASED
SCATTERED PRECIP BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
THE UNDER-PREDICTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT, FELT INCLINED TO INCREASE
POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z KVEF SOUNDING SHOWS SUBTLE
COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS, SUGGESTING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT IMPROVED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STILL THINK PRECIP WILL BE
SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIGHT...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY...BUT FELT THAT INCREASING POPS A TAD BETTER MATCHES TRENDS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
241 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO PIVOT EASTWARD IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE
FORECAST THE TRACK OF THIS CIRCULATION WELL SO FAR AND CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON ITS TRACK ESE TODAY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS COLD TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED (ALBEIT WEAK) LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY
GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH. HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPING
MOST PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN TODAY, WHICH IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS RESIDE. HOWEVER, WAS INCLINED TO KEEP POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE VALLEYS GIVEN THE SYSTEM`S TRACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. KEPT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS GIVEN EXPECTED
SUFFICIENT CAPE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. AS LOCALIZED
PROCESSES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IMPORTANT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION, ANY PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES TRANSIENT HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM RAPIDLY IN THIS REGIME, WITH MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY 3-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED, INDUCING STRONGER MIXING. THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BECOME BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY, FORECAST SPEEDS SO FAR MERELY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN).
NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING AS THE LARGE PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/AMPLITUDE, WITH THE NAM PERHAPS THE SLOWEST AND
THE MOST AMPLIFIED. THIS IS TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH IS GENERALLY DEPICTED TO BE
FLATTEST WITH THE GFS (THUS MAKING IT THE FASTER SOLUTION). SUSPECT
REALITY WILL FAVOR THE DEEPER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS...SO NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON THE GFS TIMING OF THE SYSTEM`S APPROACH TO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS, WEAK VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE LARGE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MEANDERING
EASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CHANCES SPREAD
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
PUSHING THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
THEN FINALLY INTO UTAH AND COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN WITH THE LOW EAST OF OUR AREA, MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SO, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND WARMER MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SKC-FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
8-10K FEET MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 7 KTS. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD BE OBSCURED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
WINDS UNDER 10KTS. ISOLD SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z
MONDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
SHOWERS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/SHORT TERM...SHAFER
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 021310
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
610 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH


&&

.UPDATE...TWEAKED GRIDS FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST CONVECTIVE
MODELS. OVERALL...DECREASE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS WHILE MAINTAIN
CONVECTION OVER THE MTN RIDGES IN CENTRAL NV. QPF AMOUNTS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 207 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A REMNANT
LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING BUT FOR ALL
INTENTS AND PURPOSE A RIDGE HAS SECURED A POSITION OVER THE WEST
AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING EAST AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM ASIDE FROM SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AND
THE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ABOUT 150 MILES TO RECENTER OVER UTAH.
THERE WILL BE SOME UNSTABLE AIR LEFTOVER IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA BREAKS APART OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR
SO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE
A DRY PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ANOTHER 200 MILES TO
RECENTER EAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGE
HOLDS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO STALL THE ONSET OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVER FAR WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DIP
INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE MOST PART.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COASTAL REGION NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS ELKO BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND PRE-FRONTAL WARMING WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THE
LONG TERM LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING GREATER
THAN 1 INCH OF EQUIVALENT PRECIP.

SPECIFICALLY... LARGE CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN CA
COASTLINE BY WED EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST PASSING
THE NV/CA STATE LINE.  WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET ABLE TO MAKE IT
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BAND
OF PRECIP TO STAY INTACT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  DUE
TO THIS WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
HUMBOLDT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS AGREE
WITH WEAKENING THE FRONTAL BAND AS THE 500MB LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST OF CA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS
STILL PLACES MOST OF THE CWA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...SO
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  BY
FRIDAY...THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN CA...PLACING
THE CWA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY ROTATES INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN MAINLY NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY LEANED IN THIS
DIRECTION...SO SIMPLY ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MIRROR MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY
SATURDAY...THE 558DM 500MB CLOSED LOW IS OVER SW UT OR WESTERN
AZ...PLACING THE CWA IN THE NE QUADRANT.  THIS LEADS TO MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LESS OF THEM THAN ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOME.
THE CHANGES DIMINISH FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS NOW
IN EASTERN UTAH OR SOUTHERN WY...MEANING EASTERN NV SHOULD SEE
THE BEST SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA...LIMITING
THE SHOWER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY...HOWEVER NOT ENDING
IT COMPLETELY.  MODEL AGREEMENT DOES DROP OFF BY MONDAY...WITH THE
EC PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW...WHILE THE
GFS INDICATES A COL AREA OVERHEAD...AND THUS PRODUCING
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.  THEREFORE...LIKE STATE PREVIOUSLY...KEPT
POPS IN PLACE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BOTTOM
LINE...THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED OR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON....BUT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE
IN WHERE THEY DEVELOP.  THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EPISODE...SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS.  FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD IS WHEN SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR LOWEST (@7500 TO 8000 FT).

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
NEAR KTPH AND KELY WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT EXIST.

HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL.
LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE
BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR THESE AND OTHER SMALL
STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD
MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM PALISADE TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/85




000
FXUS65 KREV 021006
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
306 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Warmer temperatures are expected today with a slight chance for
showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorm
chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday with a few strong storms
possible by Wednesday. More widespread rain and high elevation
snow, with possible thunderstorms Thursday may continue into next
weekend as low pressure moves slowly across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Several days of active weather remain probable across the eastern
Sierra and western Nevada as a large low pressure system slowly
approaches the California coast by midweek. A gradual warming
trend is expected for the next couple of days with a few valleys
possibly reaching 80 degrees Tuesday, before some cooling arrives
by Wednesday especially west of US-95.

Today appears to be the least active weather day for the upcoming
week. A weak shortwave brushing across northern CA will lead to
some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity mainly across
northeast CA and near the Sierra this afternoon and early
evening. Most of these cells will move to the north or northwest.
Eastward progression of convection will be limited as a layer of
warmer air aloft should cap much of the activity across western
NV, although some brief late day showers can`t be ruled out.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, a large low pressure over the eastern
Pacific moves slowly east, reaching the California coast by
Wednesday. The increased upper level divergence ahead of this
low, along with an influx of moisture will bring increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms across the region. For Tuesday, the
better shower and thunderstorm potential favors northeast CA, the
northern Sierra, and far western Nevada with some activity
continuing overnight. On Wednesday, higher precip chances will
spread across much of western Nevada as well.

Wednesday could be interesting as upper level jet streak rotates
around the low with the favorable left exit region possibly
providing enhanced lift over parts of eastern CA and western NV.
Some uncertainty remains with the eventual location of this
enhanced lift, but areas between US-395 and US-95 could be
targeted for more organized and stronger storms with potential for
heavy rainfall, if sufficient instability is present. A limiting
factor would be if instability is reduced due to widespread cloud
cover, then the strength of the convection would be somewhat
inhibited due to the increased wind shear aloft. In this less
unstable scenario, areas of light to moderate rain may still occur
with more isolated thunder. We will continue to monitor guidance
trends as slight changes in timing and location of the upper jet
could bring either scenario Wednesday afternoon-evening. MJD/Dawn

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

Not too much change this morning as a cool and wet pattern is on tap
for the end of the week. Model simulations continue to show lower
than average spread in track for an upper low that is cut off from
the main westerlies, taking it slowly eastward across srn CA/srn NV
and to AZ/UT during this period. Model QPF continues to be quite
impressive Thu-Sat with model averages indicating 0.50-1.00"
across western NV and 1.00-2.00" along the eastern Sierra. While
it is still too early to determine where heavier bands of showers
will develop, locally heavy rain could result in some rises of
small creeks and streams. Snow levels will generally run between
7000-8000 feet although they could dip a bit lower in heavier
bands of showers. So impacts from snow accumulations should remain
confined to the highest passes and mainly at night. In addition to
the rain and snow, thunderstorms will be possible each day with
lightning and abundant amounts of small hail possible.

By Sunday, the effects of the upper low itself will move out of
the region. However, abundant moisture and warmer surface
temperatures will keep showers and thunderstorms going with model
soundings indicating plenty of CAPE for a few strong slow moving
storms. After highs in the 50s and 60s Thu-Sat, temperatures will
warm back to 60s and 70s by early next week. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will stay confined
mainly to the Sierra crest this afternoon/early evening although a
stray shower could drift to the Hwy 395 corridor. So KTVL/KTRK will
see the best chance of a shower/storm, probabilities at 30%/10%
respectively. Otherwise, light winds and VFR through 18z Tue.
Hohmann

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 020941
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
241 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. A STEADY WARMUP WILL OCCUR AS THE AREA
BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SLOW-
MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO PIVOT EASTWARD IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE
FORECAST THE TRACK OF THIS CIRCULATION WELL SO FAR AND CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON ITS TRACK ESE TODAY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS COLD TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED (ALBEIT WEAK) LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY
GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH. HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPING
MOST PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN TODAY, WHICH IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS RESIDE. HOWEVER, WAS INCLINED TO KEEP POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE VALLEYS GIVEN THE SYSTEM`S TRACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. KEPT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS GIVEN EXPECTED
SUFFICIENT CAPE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. AS LOCALIZED
PROCESSES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IMPORTANT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION, ANY PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES TRANSIENT HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM RAPIDLY IN THIS REGIME, WITH MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY 3-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED, INDUCING STRONGER MIXING. THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BECOME BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY, FORECAST SPEEDS SO FAR MERELY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN).
NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING AS THE LARGE PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/AMPLITUDE, WITH THE NAM PERHAPS THE SLOWEST AND
THE MOST AMPLIFIED. THIS IS TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH IS GENERALLY DEPICTED TO BE
FLATTEST WITH THE GFS (THUS MAKING IT THE FASTER SOLUTION). SUSPECT
REALITY WILL FAVOR THE DEEPER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS...SO NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON THE GFS TIMING OF THE SYSTEM`S APPROACH TO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS, WEAK VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE LARGE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MEANDERING
EASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CHANCES SPREAD
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
PUSHING THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
THEN FINALLY INTO UTAH AND COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN WITH THE LOW EAST OF OUR AREA, MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SO, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND WARMER MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SKC-FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
8-10K FEET MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 7 KTS. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD BE OBSCURED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
WINDS UNDER 10KTS. ISOLD SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z
MONDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
SHOWERS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHAFER
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 020907
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A REMNANT
LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING BUT FOR ALL
INTENTS AND PURPOSE A RIDGE HAS SECURED A POSITION OVER THE WEST
AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING EAST AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM ASIDE FROM SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AND
THE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ABOUT 150 MILES TO RECENTER OVER UTAH.
THERE WILL BE SOME UNSTABLE AIR LEFTOVER IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA BREAKS APART OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR
SO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE
A DRY PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ANOTHER 200 MILES TO
RECENTER EAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGE
HOLDS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO STALL THE ONSET OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVER FAR WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DIP
INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE MOST PART.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COASTAL REGION NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS ELKO BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND PRE-FRONTAL WARMING WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THE
LONG TERM LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING GREATER
THAN 1 INCH OF EQUIVALENT PRECIP.

SPECIFICALLY... LARGE CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN CA
COASTLINE BY WED EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST PASSING
THE NV/CA STATE LINE.  WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET ABLE TO MAKE IT
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BAND
OF PRECIP TO STAY INTACT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  DUE
TO THIS WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
HUMBOLDT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS AGREE
WITH WEAKENING THE FRONTAL BAND AS THE 500MB LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST OF CA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS
STILL PLACES MOST OF THE CWA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...SO
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  BY
FRIDAY...THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN CA...PLACING
THE CWA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY ROTATES INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN MAINLY NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY LEANED IN THIS
DIRECTION...SO SIMPLY ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MIRROR MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY
SATURDAY...THE 558DM 500MB CLOSED LOW IS OVER SW UT OR WESTERN
AZ...PLACING THE CWA IN THE NE QUADRANT.  THIS LEADS TO MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LESS OF THEM THAN ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOME.
THE CHANGES DIMINISH FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS NOW
IN EASTERN UTAH OR SOUTHERN WY...MEANING EASTERN NV SHOULD SEE
THE BEST SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA...LIMITING
THE SHOWER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY...HOWEVER NOT ENDING
IT COMPLETELY.  MODEL AGREEMENT DOES DROP OFF BY MONDAY...WITH THE
EC PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW...WHILE THE
GFS INDICATES A COL AREA OVERHEAD...AND THUS PRODUCING
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.  THEREFORE...LIKE STATE PREVIOUSLY...KEPT
POPS IN PLACE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BOTTOM
LINE...THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED OR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON....BUT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE
IN WHERE THEY DEVELOP.  THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EPISODE...SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS.  FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD IS WHEN SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR LOWEST (@7500 TO 8000 FT).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
NEAR KTPH AND KELY WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT EXIST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL.
LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE
BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR THESE AND OTHER SMALL
STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD
MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM PALISADE TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/85/85




000
FXUS65 KVEF 020602 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE
AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OVER CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA WE ARE LIKELY NOT TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SKC-FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
8-10K FEET MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 7 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
WINDS UNDER 10KTS. ISOLD SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
18Z MONDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
235 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS TOWERING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED
ELSEWHERE BUT SOME CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DROP OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE
MORE MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. POPS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST VALLEYS AND DESERTS NORTH OF I-40 ALSO
STANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WARMING
ALOFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING 4-6
DEGREES MONDAY IN SPITE OF THE WEEK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SPIN INTO A CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW ON
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, EVEN LONGER IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
PANS OUT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE
FASTER SOLUTION THIS MORNING, WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 24 HOURS AGO, THE GFS WAS THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THE MEAN FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF, YET WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 020602 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE
AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OVER CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA WE ARE LIKELY NOT TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SKC-FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
8-10K FEET MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 7 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
WINDS UNDER 10KTS. ISOLD SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
18Z MONDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
235 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS TOWERING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED
ELSEWHERE BUT SOME CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DROP OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE
MORE MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. POPS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST VALLEYS AND DESERTS NORTH OF I-40 ALSO
STANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WARMING
ALOFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING 4-6
DEGREES MONDAY IN SPITE OF THE WEEK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SPIN INTO A CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW ON
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, EVEN LONGER IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
PANS OUT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE
FASTER SOLUTION THIS MORNING, WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 24 HOURS AGO, THE GFS WAS THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THE MEAN FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF, YET WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 012146
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
246 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Warmer temperatures are expected today through Tuesday with a chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Cooler conditions with more widespread rain, high elevation snow,
and a slight chance for thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday
through Sunday as low pressure moves slowly across the western
U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

An area of high pressure is building to the north, focused over
northern Idaho and northwest Montana stretching into Canada. While
the Sierra and western Nevada will respond with warmer conditions,
lingering moisture and instability will lead to afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm development.

Showers with isolated thunderstorms have begun to form this
afternoon mainly along the Sierra and across the central Nevada
Basin and Range. These pulse storms will spread across the area,
but will be very hit or miss. Storms tomorrow are more likely to
form in northeast California and northwest Nevada as a weak
shortwave moves through these areas. Storm risks will include
lightning, small hail, and brief moderate to heavy rain.

A large area of low pressure approaches the west coast Tuesday,
slowly moving onshore on Wednesday. The increased upper level
divergence ahead of this feature, along with an influx of moisture
will bring better chances for shower and thunderstorms across the
region. Tuesday, the focus is more likely to be northeast CA, the
northern Sierra, and extreme northwest Nevada. On Wednesday,
chances will spread across northern Nevada and southern Sierra as
well.

Wednesday could be interesting as a jet segment nosing into the
region will bring increasing shear. This could help storms become
more organized/severe, but on the flip side could also be too much
shear and end up tearing the updrafts of the storms apart. We will
continue to monitor as slight changes in timing could bring either
scenario Wednesday afternoon. -Dawn

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

An upper level low will provide a prolonged period of precipitation
midweek into next weekend. The center of the low will cross the Bay
Area Thursday which will result in increased moisture and
instability across the region. Much of the northern Sierra and
western Nevada will exist in diffluent flow aloft along with several
hundred J/kg of CAPE. As such, do expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms Thursday which may result in heavy rainfall,
abundant small hail, and gusty outflow winds.

Low ensemble spreads and consistent model agreement is yielding
higher confidence in this cooler and wet pattern. As this low
becomes detached from the mean flow, it will linger and be slow to
depart the region. This will result in a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms into the next weekend. Although difficult
to assign total precipitation amounts a week out, it is interesting
to note the low end of ensemble spreads depicting an inch of
rainfall across western Nevada by next weekend. This low won`t be a
particularly cold system but could see snow levels dip to some of
the higher pass levels. Travel impacts and slow downs will be
possible for these areas through next week. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

Brief MVFR conditions possible through about 03z today with light
showers possible mainly for Sierra terminals(KTRK/KTVL/KMMH).
Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well but chances should
remain low at around 10-15%. Light winds will prevail Monday with
another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly for
KTRK/KTVL. Lesser chances expected for KRNO/KCXP/KMMH with about a
15% of rain showers Monday afternoon. Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 012135
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE
AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS TOWERING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED
ELSEWHERE BUT SOME CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DROP OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE
MORE MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. POPS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST VALLEYS AND DESERTS NORTH OF I-40 ALSO
STANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WARMING
ALOFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING 4-6
DEGREES MONDAY IN SPITE OF THE WEEK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SPIN INTO A CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW ON
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, EVEN LONGER IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
PANS OUT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE
FASTER SOLUTION THIS MORNING, WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 24 HOURS AGO, THE GFS WAS THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THE MEAN FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF, YET WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE SPRING AND SHEEP RANGE
SURROUNDING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS ALL ARRIVAL
CORRIDORS. LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS TO AROUND 8-10K FT...A FEW MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE WILL CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY
REDUCED CIGS TO AROUND 8-10K FT...A FEW MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AND
LOCALIZED TURBULENCE WILL CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 012135
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY...EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAIN. MORE WET WEATHER
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY...HOWEVER AS TROUGH ENERGY MOVES IN
ALONG THE WEST COAST...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPANDS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE LANDER AND
EUREKA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WESTERN ELKO COUNTY UP TO THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...THEN
RISE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
INCREASED WINDS MID-WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS ITS CLOSES AND
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NEVADA LATER THIS WEEK.

INITIALLY THE APPROACH OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CREATE A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING SO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND SETTLES
ALONG THE CA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION SHOULD BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE LOW DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CA BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE BEST COVERAGE DAY
BASED CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL ALSO PRODUCE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS COVER.

BY SATURDAY THE ECMWF IS HANGING THE LOW UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE CORE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. EITHER
SOLUTION WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PCPN WOULD BE IN
DOUBT. THE CORE OF THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER EAST SUNDAY. THERE ARE
MORE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES STARTING TO CROP UP BY SUNDAY...BUT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS LIKELY.

WE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FEW...IF
ANY...CHANGES TO THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH A WEAK AREA OF UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL KEEP ABUNDANT CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHILE
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAIN TOPS DEVELOP IN
THE AREA WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK TUESDAY...AND APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR SMALL STREAMS
MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD MAKE THEM
IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/87/87




000
FXUS65 KVEF 011640
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SIERRA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT, SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 12Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THE LIFTED INDEX OF -1 AND CAPE AROUND 600 SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INITIALY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS SHOWED A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHWEST NEVADA WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AS
CONVECTION GETS GOING. THE LARGER CIRCULATION/VORT MAX CARVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ALSO KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS
THE  SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WEST CENTRAL NEVADA FOR SLIGHT
DESTABILIZATION. THE STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE GOING
FORECAST POP/WX GRIDS LOOK OKAY AND NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
259 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

POTENT, SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY`S
PRECIPITATION AND COOL TEMPERATURES WAS SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD
INTO ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SUBTLE VORT MAX
PROGRESSING SSW THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPSTREAM VORT MAX WILL
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION INTO COASTAL CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BEFORE
PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ITS STRONG HOLD IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, KEEPING THE VORT MAX`S PROGRESSION SLOW. AS SUCH, SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS THIS VORT MAX
MEANDERS ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO NOTE ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM. FIRST...ITS TRACK
LOOKS TO BE FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SIERRA, SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
AND MOHAVE COUNTY. SECOND...UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. COMBINE THIS WITH THE VORT MAX`S ORIGINS IN
WESTERN CANADA (IN OTHER WORDS...LESS MOISTURE), AND THE RESULT IS
MORE SCATTERED PRECIP (AIDED BY LOCALIZED PROCESSES SUCH AS TERRAIN
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING) AND LOWER QPF OVERALL. IN GENERAL, EXPECT
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE SIERRA
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE AREA. GENERALLY, THESE LEVELS WILL BE 7000-
8000 FEET THIS MORNING TO AROUND 8500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WITH TRACE AMOUNTS NEAR 8000 FEET TO
PERHAPS 2-4 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA.

MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERT
VALLEYS...BUT GIVEN THE COLD MIDLEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THINK PRECIP
MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE IN THE VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY...THUNDER CHANCES WERE RETAINED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 7-12 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. ANOTHER 3-8 DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AS THE WARMER SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COMMENCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SPIN INTO A CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW ON
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, EVEN LONGER IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
PANS OUT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE
FASTER SOLUTION THIS MORNING, WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 24 HOURS AGO, THE GFS WAS THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THE MEAN FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF, YET WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET WITH CIGS
ABOVE 12K FEET THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. CIGS PSBL DOWN TO 8K FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 18Z AROUND 7KTS...BUT COULD GET GUSTY AND VARIABLE WITH NEARBY
STORMS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS MORNING WITH SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. CIGS DOWN TO
7-8K FEET POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10KTS...BUT VARIABLE
AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM...SHAFER
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 011013
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THIS WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CENTER OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA...YET WITH ITS COMPANION LOW CENTER
OVER NW NEVADA AT THIS TIME...STILL HELPING TO PROVIDE A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
MOVING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER NE NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND THE RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW WEAK ECHOES OVER ELKO
COUNTY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME DEGREE
OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
THE MORE ACTIVE TIME-FRAME FOR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN OUT TO BE A
DRY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. AN EXTREMELY POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH
WILL BE HANGING BACK OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER REX-LIKE PATTERN AND THE 576DM HIGH OVER
MONTANA WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWEST
CONUS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE EVOLUTION
DOES NOT SUGGEST ESTABLISHMENT OF A BLOCKING RIDGE BUT DOES APPEAR
TO SLOW DOWN THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN A BIT. WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE INTRUSION OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO EXTEND
SOME MOISTURE AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NEVADA BUT THE GFS
MODEL SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOLDING THE MOISTURE BACK TO ONLY
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THUS THERE COULD BE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT
EVOLVES INTO A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE THAT DRIFTS TOWARD SRN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONE ALONG THE
COAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ACROSS NEVADA. THIS RESULTS INTO A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN VALLEYS ON WED AFTN/EVE.

WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE SPREADING EAST ACROSS NEVADA...THE MODELS
SHOW SOME SPREAD BUT PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN (AND BLOCKING DEEP CYCLONE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD). AT ANY
RATE...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PLENTY OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SPINNING DEEP CYCLONE INTO
NRN/CENTRAL NEVADA...REGARDLESS ON WHICH DETERMINISTIC MODEL OR
BLEND IS CHOSEN. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE STATE AND HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT ANY
RATE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY MILD AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGH AND
RANGE BETWEEN 7500 TO 8500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NEVADA THAT TRACK
WESTWARD. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AFTER
18Z)...MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA (INCLUDING KTPH)...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS KELY.  AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR SMALL STREAMS
MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD MAKE THEM
IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

92/88/88




000
FXUS65 KLKN 011013
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THIS WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CENTER OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA...YET WITH ITS COMPANION LOW CENTER
OVER NW NEVADA AT THIS TIME...STILL HELPING TO PROVIDE A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
MOVING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER NE NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND THE RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW WEAK ECHOES OVER ELKO
COUNTY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME DEGREE
OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
THE MORE ACTIVE TIME-FRAME FOR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN OUT TO BE A
DRY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. AN EXTREMELY POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH
WILL BE HANGING BACK OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER REX-LIKE PATTERN AND THE 576DM HIGH OVER
MONTANA WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWEST
CONUS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE EVOLUTION
DOES NOT SUGGEST ESTABLISHMENT OF A BLOCKING RIDGE BUT DOES APPEAR
TO SLOW DOWN THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN A BIT. WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE INTRUSION OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO EXTEND
SOME MOISTURE AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NEVADA BUT THE GFS
MODEL SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOLDING THE MOISTURE BACK TO ONLY
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THUS THERE COULD BE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT
EVOLVES INTO A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE THAT DRIFTS TOWARD SRN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONE ALONG THE
COAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ACROSS NEVADA. THIS RESULTS INTO A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN VALLEYS ON WED AFTN/EVE.

WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE SPREADING EAST ACROSS NEVADA...THE MODELS
SHOW SOME SPREAD BUT PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN (AND BLOCKING DEEP CYCLONE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD). AT ANY
RATE...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PLENTY OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SPINNING DEEP CYCLONE INTO
NRN/CENTRAL NEVADA...REGARDLESS ON WHICH DETERMINISTIC MODEL OR
BLEND IS CHOSEN. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE STATE AND HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT ANY
RATE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY MILD AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGH AND
RANGE BETWEEN 7500 TO 8500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NEVADA THAT TRACK
WESTWARD. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AFTER
18Z)...MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA (INCLUDING KTPH)...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS KELY.  AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR SMALL STREAMS
MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD MAKE THEM
IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

92/88/88




000
FXUS65 KVEF 010959
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
259 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT, SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

POTENT, SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY`S
PRECIPITATION AND COOL TEMPERATURES WAS SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD
INTO ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SUBTLE VORT MAX
PROGRESSING SSW THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPSTREAM VORT MAX WILL
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION INTO COASTAL CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BEFORE
PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ITS STRONG HOLD IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, KEEPING THE VORT MAX`S PROGRESSION SLOW. AS SUCH, SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS THIS VORT MAX
MEANDERS ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO NOTE ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM. FIRST...ITS TRACK
LOOKS TO BE FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SIERRA, SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
AND MOHAVE COUNTY. SECOND...UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. COMBINE THIS WITH THE VORT MAX`S ORIGINS IN
WESTERN CANADA (IN OTHER WORDS...LESS MOISTURE), AND THE RESULT IS
MORE SCATTERED PRECIP (AIDED BY LOCALIZED PROCESSES SUCH AS TERRAIN
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING) AND LOWER QPF OVERALL. IN GENERAL, EXPECT
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE SIERRA
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE AREA. GENERALLY, THESE LEVELS WILL BE 7000-
8000 FEET THIS MORNING TO AROUND 8500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WITH TRACE AMOUNTS NEAR 8000 FEET TO
PERHAPS 2-4 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA.

MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERT
VALLEYS...BUT GIVEN THE COLD MIDLEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THINK PRECIP
MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE IN THE VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY...THUNDER CHANCES WERE RETAINED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 7-12 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. ANOTHER 3-8 DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AS THE WARMER SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COMMENCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SPIN INTO A CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW ON
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, EVEN LONGER IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
PANS OUT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE
FASTER SOLUTION THIS MORNING, WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 24 HOURS AGO, THE GFS WAS THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THE MEAN FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF, YET WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET WITH CIGS
ABOVE 12K FEET THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. CIGS PSBL DOWN TO 8K FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 18Z AROUND 7KTS...BUT COULD GET GUSTY AND VARIABLE WITH NEARBY
STORMS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS MORNING WITH SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. CIGS DOWN TO
7-8K FEET POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10KTS...BUT VARIABLE
AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHAFER
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 010930
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Warmer temperatures are expected today through Tuesday with a
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening, mainly near the Sierra. Cooler conditions with more
widespread rain and high elevation snow are possible from
Wednesday through Saturday as low pressure moves slowly across
the western U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Warmer temperatures will finally bring more comfortable weather
for most outdoor activities today through Tuesday. Highs rise to
near 70 degrees in lower elevations today, then push to the mid-
upper 70s by Tuesday. Moderate east winds will prevail today,
which may keep locally choppy conditions along the west shores of
Lake Tahoe, with stronger ridge gusts over the Sierra especially
through this morning.

The trade off - with upper level disturbances over northern or
central CA, a threat of showers and thunderstorms will be present
each afternoon and evening. Today the better forcing and
instability favors the Sierra south of Tahoe to Mono County, and
western NV south of US-50, although a few brief showers can`t be
ruled out farther north to near the I-80 corridor.

By Monday, another shortwave is projected to move northward across
the northern half of CA as flow aloft becomes south. This would
favor more convective development in northeast CA and near the
Sierra, with isolated cells possible into far northwest-western
NV but probably not getting much farther east than Reno or Carson
City.

For Tuesday, stronger low pressure approaching the west coast
could bring a broader area of lift and instability to northeast CA
and far northwest NV, assuming the low moves close enough to the
coast by the afternoon. If this occurs, the more favored areas for
convection look to be similar to Monday, with coverage of showers
and thunderstorms increasing a bit. Some activity could continue
overnight in northeast CA as instability continues along with a
further increase in moisture. There is more uncertainty for the
location of the convective activity Tuesday and Tuesday night as
some guidance scenarios hold the low farther offshore with the
better instability west of the Sierra. Current forecast will
continue to favor the wetter scenario, which is supported by most
of the ensemble guidance. MJD

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...

Large scale trough will reach the west coast Wednesday and then
close off as it moves inland during the remainder of the week.
Models continue to depict a very slow eastward movement and this
will provide the region with extensive clouds, periods of showers
and thunderstorms with cooler than average temperatures. For a
closed low in early May, models are showing above average
confidence in track of upper low center, roughly from Los Angeles
to Las Vegas Thu-Sat.

For Wednesday, 250 mb 110+ kt jet in advance of trough may
provide sufficient dynamics to overcome lack of insolation due to
extensive high clouds for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially from Tahoe/Sierra Front northward to the Oregon border.
Given the increased flow sfc-aloft and afternoon temperatures in
the 60s to lower 70s, there would be enough shear and instability
present for organized strong storms.

For Thu-Sat, winds aloft decrease and turn east to northeast aloft
as upper low shifts inland. Much of our area will be on the north
and northwest periphery of low. This is where details become harder
to determine, specifically with precipitation banding. Based on
current track, areas near and south of I-80 are favored for best
shower and storm coverage although the broad scale of trough will
warrant good chances farther north as well. We bumped up the
probability to likely at times Thu-Fri south of I-80 where some
locations could see some decent precipitation totals. This is not
a particularly cold storm, so snow levels are going to remain
fairly high. However, deep moist profile suggests stronger storms
will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and lots of small
hail. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

A general east gradient will prevail today although ridge winds are
expected to come down quite a bit from their strong speeds this
morning. The east flow will keep low levels stable for western NV to
the north of Hwy 50. Lighter winds and sufficient instability will
result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere
(Sierra south of Portola and Mineral County, including all Sierra
airports). There is about a 25-35% chance of showers at these sites
and 10-15% chance of thunder 21z-02z). KRNO/KCXP/KNFL will most
likely remain dry although there is a 10% chance for a brief shower.
Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




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