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000
FXUS65 KREV 291103
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
STORM TRACK REMAINING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DYNAMICS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOST AREAS WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. SOUTHERN END
OF TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA-AZ-NORTHWEST
MEXICO FRI-SAT WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW TO BRING A SLOW DRYING
TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS DOWN IN LOWER
VALLEYS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT QPF IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHOWER COVERAGE STAYING FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES, HOWEVER READINGS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE STILL GOING
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUD BREAKS OCCUR.
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS CLOUDS THIN. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME FLATTENING OF
THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE FEED AND
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
BRUSHING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR OR THE TAHOE BASIN HAS
DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY, SO WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM
THESE AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RIDGE REBUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA
THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH ALL AREAS REMAINING
DRY. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOT VERY SHARP, SO THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS OF CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA, BUT ALSO LIMIT THE INVERSION STRENGTH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SIERRA VALLEYS, WITH LIMITED
MIXING TO THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOR MONDAY, SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE SIERRA, BUT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
IMPROVE MIXING AND PUSH TEMPS HIGHER FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS. GFS MOS
GUIDANCE PUSHED HIGHS ABOVE 65 DEGREES FOR RENO ON MONDAY, BUT WE
DIDN`T GO THAT HIGH SINCE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT
FULL MIXING DOWN FROM RIDGE LEVEL (AROUND 700 MB) DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WE KEPT TEMPS ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, BASED ON THE DESCRIPTION OF THE RIDGE IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF CIRRUS HAVE PREVENTED FZFG FORMATION AT KTRK SO FAR BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG AROUND THE TERMINAL. EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
CREST ARE ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AROUND KTRK INCREASES FOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS LESS CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER RIDGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SPEEDS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT
KCXP BETWEEN 21-03Z. ON FRIDAY, SFC FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. STRONGER
NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









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000
FXUS65 KVEF 291047
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
246 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA WAS AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SOME TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. THE MOJAVE DESERT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW IT TO WRAP PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP INTO IT WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NAM12...CONTINUE TO TARGET
MOHAVE...CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THOSE MODELS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE HUALAPAI AND SPRING MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS THE MOJAVE PRESERVE. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM FOR
JANUARY AND WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS...AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TOWN OF MT CHARLESTON MAY ONLY GET AN INCH OR TWO.
FOR THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN FOR THIS EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA SATURDAY PUSHING THE LOW SOUTH TO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY EVENING BUT THAT SHOULD COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ALL IN ALL A QUIET START TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. ONCE THE DRAINAGE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY. LOW CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL ALL BE ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OR SNOW THAT IS OBSERVED.
&&

$$

HARRISON/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






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000
FXUS65 KLKN 291017
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
217 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS
SHOWING ON RADAR. THE AXIS OF THE INCOMING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 650 MILES DUE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER
THERE IS A 250 MILE WIDE SWATH OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH...STREAMING OVER LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING...WHERE
THE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S. COMPARE THAT TO A DEWPOINT OF 25
DEGREES AT KELY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CHANCES
INCREASE BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SCOOPS UP SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES
TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE THE NORM. THEN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TO PUSH THE TROUGH SOUTH...THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY DESCEND TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS. THE SNAKE RANGE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
BENEFIT BEST FOR SNOW WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE DRY AND MILD WINTER CONTINUES WELL INTO FEBRUARY...

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO NEVADA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS CONTROL ON SUPER
BOWL SUNDAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUN, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT RIDGE TO FLATTEN A BIT MONDAY, WITH
EXTRA CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY, SO RETAINED VERY LOW POPS WITH LITTLE
QPF AND NO IMPACTS. MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS CONTINUES MONDAY, ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
GROUNDHOG DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA ONCE AGAIN. REDUCED OR
ELIMINATED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD, AND INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 50S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK AMPLIFICATION ACROSS NEVADA,
WITH NEAR- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 ONCE AGAIN. THE WINTER
THAT NEVER WAS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z. MID-CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS NEVADA TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH. FROM KTPH TO KELY, FROM 00-12Z FRI, CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER
TO 4-5K FT, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. -SHRA EXPECTED FROM KELY
TO KTPH 00-12Z FRI. KWMC AND KEKO WILL REMAIN DRY. AT KELY, EXPECT
-RA AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 291017
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
217 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS
SHOWING ON RADAR. THE AXIS OF THE INCOMING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 650 MILES DUE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER
THERE IS A 250 MILE WIDE SWATH OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH...STREAMING OVER LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING...WHERE
THE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S. COMPARE THAT TO A DEWPOINT OF 25
DEGREES AT KELY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CHANCES
INCREASE BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SCOOPS UP SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES
TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE THE NORM. THEN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TO PUSH THE TROUGH SOUTH...THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY DESCEND TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS. THE SNAKE RANGE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
BENEFIT BEST FOR SNOW WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE DRY AND MILD WINTER CONTINUES WELL INTO FEBRUARY...

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO NEVADA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS CONTROL ON SUPER
BOWL SUNDAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUN, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT RIDGE TO FLATTEN A BIT MONDAY, WITH
EXTRA CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY, SO RETAINED VERY LOW POPS WITH LITTLE
QPF AND NO IMPACTS. MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS CONTINUES MONDAY, ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
GROUNDHOG DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA ONCE AGAIN. REDUCED OR
ELIMINATED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD, AND INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 50S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK AMPLIFICATION ACROSS NEVADA,
WITH NEAR- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 ONCE AGAIN. THE WINTER
THAT NEVER WAS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z. MID-CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS NEVADA TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH. FROM KTPH TO KELY, FROM 00-12Z FRI, CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER
TO 4-5K FT, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. -SHRA EXPECTED FROM KELY
TO KTPH 00-12Z FRI. KWMC AND KEKO WILL REMAIN DRY. AT KELY, EXPECT
-RA AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290503
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
903 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND 21Z SREF ALL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOST OF THE SURROUNDING
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS INDICATED
IN THE GOING FORECAST. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...AND ALL OF THE
MOISTURE HEADING OUR DIRECTION AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
LOOPS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
RAINFALL. NO IMMEDIATE UPDATE IS PLANNED...BUT POP AND QPF VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. STORM SYSTEM GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER WEST OF THE
BAJA HAS TAPPED INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AS EXPECTED...SPREADING A THICK
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND NEAR ENSENADA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COVERING THE
ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIP CHANCES. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER...WHERE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL
IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND DOWN ACROSS UTAH INTO ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALL BE
ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 290503
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
903 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND 21Z SREF ALL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOST OF THE SURROUNDING
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS INDICATED
IN THE GOING FORECAST. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...AND ALL OF THE
MOISTURE HEADING OUR DIRECTION AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
LOOPS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
RAINFALL. NO IMMEDIATE UPDATE IS PLANNED...BUT POP AND QPF VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. STORM SYSTEM GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER WEST OF THE
BAJA HAS TAPPED INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AS EXPECTED...SPREADING A THICK
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND NEAR ENSENADA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COVERING THE
ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIP CHANCES. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER...WHERE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL
IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND DOWN ACROSS UTAH INTO ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALL BE
ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 290503
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
903 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND 21Z SREF ALL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOST OF THE SURROUNDING
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS INDICATED
IN THE GOING FORECAST. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...AND ALL OF THE
MOISTURE HEADING OUR DIRECTION AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
LOOPS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
RAINFALL. NO IMMEDIATE UPDATE IS PLANNED...BUT POP AND QPF VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. STORM SYSTEM GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER WEST OF THE
BAJA HAS TAPPED INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AS EXPECTED...SPREADING A THICK
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND NEAR ENSENADA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COVERING THE
ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIP CHANCES. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER...WHERE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL
IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND DOWN ACROSS UTAH INTO ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALL BE
ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 290503
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
903 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND 21Z SREF ALL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOST OF THE SURROUNDING
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS INDICATED
IN THE GOING FORECAST. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...AND ALL OF THE
MOISTURE HEADING OUR DIRECTION AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
LOOPS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
RAINFALL. NO IMMEDIATE UPDATE IS PLANNED...BUT POP AND QPF VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. STORM SYSTEM GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER WEST OF THE
BAJA HAS TAPPED INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AS EXPECTED...SPREADING A THICK
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND NEAR ENSENADA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COVERING THE
ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIP CHANCES. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER...WHERE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL
IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND DOWN ACROSS UTAH INTO ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALL BE
ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KLKN 282257
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
257 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
A GREAT BASIN LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE
IN THE WEEK BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
EIGHTY. EXPECT A MIX OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM B.C. TO CENTRAL NV.
THAT SAID...THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .48 OF AN
INCH WHICH IS 177 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND IT ACTUALLY FELT HUMID
TODAY.THE RADAR AT KLRX HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT RH
HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY HIGH DESERT STANDARDS AT WMC AND
EKO. EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO AT 37F THE 29TH...30TH
AND 31ST...WHICH WILL BE EXCEEDED HANDILY. THE MAIN EVENT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GREAT BASIN LOW. EXPECT THE H5 CENTER
OF CIRCULATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE STEERING A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA. THE RMOP...IS NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
THE POPS MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED AGAIN...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING
THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. STILL WARM FOR
JANUARY WITH HIGHER PW`S THAN USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. HENCE...ANY
PRECIP WILL TEND TOWARD LIQUID IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW/WET SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER ALL...APART FROM VERY
HIGH RIDGES IN PLACES LIKE JARBIDGE...RUBIES/EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND
TOYABIES FOR EXAMPLE.

TWO FEATURES OFFSHORE WILL AFFECT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE
MODELS ARE KEYING ON WEAK TROUGH WHICH NOW LIES OFFSHORE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS HAS A DRY ENTRAINMENT PATH FROM
THE TROPICS BUT THAT IS CLOSING AS IT SWINGS EAST. THIS IS THE
TROUGH THE MODELS ARE AGREEING ON BRINGING INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER FEATURE WELL INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC WHICH THE MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER TIME. THIS
GIANT CLOSED LOW IS ACTUALLY SWINGING SLOWLY EAST OVER TIME AND NOT
BEHAVING LIKE THE MODELS WANT IT TO. THE EURO MOVES IT TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS OVER TIME AND THE GFS BREAKS IT UP AND SWINGS SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES INTO THE AMERICAN INTERIOR WEST. HENCE...LITTLE
CONFIDENCE ON PRODUCING SERIOUS PRECIP IN THE LONG RANGE. WILL GO
WITH THE AGREED UPON SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
POTENTIALLY SLIGHT WET PERIOD WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
UPPER CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA
WITH STRAGGLING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA.

WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WANTING TO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH THESE WAVES
AND SO HAVE LEFT ALONE.



&&

.AVIATION...ALL FIELDS HAVE VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION. MIGHT GET SOME
VICINITY FOG FORMING AT KWMC KEKO OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DRAINAGE WINDS AT KELY AND
KTPH AND NOT EXPECTING FOG THERE. THIS IS A HIGHLY UNUSUAL SITUATION
FOR JANUARY...HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING FOG/NO FOG IS NOT
GREAT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO AMENDMENTS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98



000
FXUS65 KLKN 282257
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
257 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
A GREAT BASIN LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE
IN THE WEEK BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
EIGHTY. EXPECT A MIX OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM B.C. TO CENTRAL NV.
THAT SAID...THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .48 OF AN
INCH WHICH IS 177 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND IT ACTUALLY FELT HUMID
TODAY.THE RADAR AT KLRX HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT RH
HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY HIGH DESERT STANDARDS AT WMC AND
EKO. EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO AT 37F THE 29TH...30TH
AND 31ST...WHICH WILL BE EXCEEDED HANDILY. THE MAIN EVENT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GREAT BASIN LOW. EXPECT THE H5 CENTER
OF CIRCULATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE STEERING A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA. THE RMOP...IS NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
THE POPS MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED AGAIN...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING
THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. STILL WARM FOR
JANUARY WITH HIGHER PW`S THAN USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. HENCE...ANY
PRECIP WILL TEND TOWARD LIQUID IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW/WET SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER ALL...APART FROM VERY
HIGH RIDGES IN PLACES LIKE JARBIDGE...RUBIES/EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND
TOYABIES FOR EXAMPLE.

TWO FEATURES OFFSHORE WILL AFFECT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE
MODELS ARE KEYING ON WEAK TROUGH WHICH NOW LIES OFFSHORE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS HAS A DRY ENTRAINMENT PATH FROM
THE TROPICS BUT THAT IS CLOSING AS IT SWINGS EAST. THIS IS THE
TROUGH THE MODELS ARE AGREEING ON BRINGING INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER FEATURE WELL INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC WHICH THE MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER TIME. THIS
GIANT CLOSED LOW IS ACTUALLY SWINGING SLOWLY EAST OVER TIME AND NOT
BEHAVING LIKE THE MODELS WANT IT TO. THE EURO MOVES IT TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS OVER TIME AND THE GFS BREAKS IT UP AND SWINGS SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES INTO THE AMERICAN INTERIOR WEST. HENCE...LITTLE
CONFIDENCE ON PRODUCING SERIOUS PRECIP IN THE LONG RANGE. WILL GO
WITH THE AGREED UPON SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
POTENTIALLY SLIGHT WET PERIOD WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
UPPER CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA
WITH STRAGGLING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA.

WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WANTING TO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH THESE WAVES
AND SO HAVE LEFT ALONE.



&&

.AVIATION...ALL FIELDS HAVE VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION. MIGHT GET SOME
VICINITY FOG FORMING AT KWMC KEKO OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DRAINAGE WINDS AT KELY AND
KTPH AND NOT EXPECTING FOG THERE. THIS IS A HIGHLY UNUSUAL SITUATION
FOR JANUARY...HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING FOG/NO FOG IS NOT
GREAT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO AMENDMENTS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98




000
FXUS65 KVEF 282234
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. STORM SYSTEM GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER WEST OF THE
BAJA HAS TAPPED INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AS EXPECTED...SPREADING A THICK
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND NEAR ENSENADA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COVERING THE
ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIP CHANCES. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER...WHERE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL
IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND DOWN ACROSS UTAH INTO ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALL BE
ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 282234
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. STORM SYSTEM GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER WEST OF THE
BAJA HAS TAPPED INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AS EXPECTED...SPREADING A THICK
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND NEAR ENSENADA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COVERING THE
ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIP CHANCES. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER...WHERE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL
IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND DOWN ACROSS UTAH INTO ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALL BE
ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KREV 282226
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD IS BRINGING PLEASANT MILD WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN TONIGHT AS A BAGGY TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. WE`VE
DROPPED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AS MODELS RH FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ALOFT. THESE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE THIN
ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TO GET
PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND MARTIS VALLEY NEAR TRUCKEE, AS
WELL AS IN THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINK BETWEEN LOVELOCK AND FALLON.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THIS WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT THE SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF LIFT/INSTABILITY,
BUT DID LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. IF ANY SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOCAL-ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THIS
WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND PULL THE MOISTURE
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY JET SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CENTER OF THE JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER,
BUT WEAK JET DYNAMICS WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 80 ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, SO ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF PRECIPITATION IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN
NV COMMUNITIES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM. AS SUCH WE MAINTAINED THE
FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLDER VALLEYS TO
DEVELOP SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FZFG FOR KTRK AND KLOL WITH VIS DOWN TO
1/4SM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ABOUT A
15% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT KMMH THU-FRI WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND
AREAS OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
MODEST EASTERLY JET DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.  TF

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)















000
FXUS65 KREV 282226
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD IS BRINGING PLEASANT MILD WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN TONIGHT AS A BAGGY TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. WE`VE
DROPPED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AS MODELS RH FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ALOFT. THESE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE THIN
ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TO GET
PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND MARTIS VALLEY NEAR TRUCKEE, AS
WELL AS IN THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINK BETWEEN LOVELOCK AND FALLON.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THIS WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT THE SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF LIFT/INSTABILITY,
BUT DID LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. IF ANY SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOCAL-ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THIS
WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND PULL THE MOISTURE
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY JET SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CENTER OF THE JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER,
BUT WEAK JET DYNAMICS WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 80 ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, SO ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF PRECIPITATION IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN
NV COMMUNITIES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM. AS SUCH WE MAINTAINED THE
FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLDER VALLEYS TO
DEVELOP SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FZFG FOR KTRK AND KLOL WITH VIS DOWN TO
1/4SM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ABOUT A
15% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT KMMH THU-FRI WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND
AREAS OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
MODEST EASTERLY JET DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.  TF

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)














000
FXUS65 KREV 281657 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
857 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DROP THE CLOUD COVER DOWN TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. THIS FOG DISPERSED
MOMENTARILY AROUND 3 AM AS A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT
WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF FZFG
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281657 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
857 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DROP THE CLOUD COVER DOWN TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. THIS FOG DISPERSED
MOMENTARILY AROUND 3 AM AS A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT
WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF FZFG
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 281621
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
821 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS
OCCURRING NEAR HIGHWAY 395 IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...IN THE
MORONGO BASIN...AND NEAR KINGMAN. THIS SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 10 AM.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 281621
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
821 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS
OCCURRING NEAR HIGHWAY 395 IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...IN THE
MORONGO BASIN...AND NEAR KINGMAN. THIS SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 10 AM.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 281621
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
821 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS
OCCURRING NEAR HIGHWAY 395 IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...IN THE
MORONGO BASIN...AND NEAR KINGMAN. THIS SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 10 AM.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 281621
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
821 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS
OCCURRING NEAR HIGHWAY 395 IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...IN THE
MORONGO BASIN...AND NEAR KINGMAN. THIS SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 10 AM.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KREV 281114
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
314 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. THIS FOG DISPERSED
MOMENTARILY AROUND 3 AM AS A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT
WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF FZFG
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 281104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR
TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP FZFG GOING UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK
EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY
FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR
TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP FZFG GOING UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK
EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY
FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 281039
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 281039
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 281039
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 281039
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KLKN 281000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY
THIS MORNING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS THE
LKN CWFA ARE IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ELKO AREA AND RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARDS ELKO COUNTY FROM IDAHO...TWIN
FALLS IS RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT FEATURE BRUSHES THE NE
PART OF THE STATE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS. CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP BUT
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CRUISE ALONG IN THE 40S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP MODESTLY INTO THE 20S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA THEN SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EARLY
TIMING FOR SHOWERS CREEPING NORTHWARD TO HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
MORNING HOWEVER THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS MORE LIKE AN AFTERNOON
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES TO BETWEEN 6000 AND
6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
THE NORM. THEN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS DIP TO AROUND
6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

THE MILD WINTER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
BOTH AFTERNOON HIGH AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL.

ODD PATTERN FOR JANUARY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM ELKO TO YUMA, ARIZONA PULLING IN COPIOUS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH LATE FRIDAY, WITH THE NW EDGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPACTING THE SE CWA, MAINLY EASTERN WHITE
PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES. ALONG WITH WFOS SLC AND LAS VEGAS,
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SE CWA. MENTIONED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THICKNESSES FALL
OFF TO NEAR 546 DM WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED.

CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR THE GRAND CANYON SATURDAY MORNING, AND SINKS
SOUTHWARD, ENDING UP WEST OF TUCSON, ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA, AND KEPT ALL ZONES
DRY. THE MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNABATED FOR THE LAST DAY OF
JANUARY, IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE PACIFIC, WITH MAXIMUM
AMPLIFICATION ON SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE FLATTENS TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW
BY AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT ALL ZONES DRY WITH LOWER 50S MORE WIDESPREAD.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING DIRTY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING SOME TO THE SW.
ALL MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY, SO
INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED MILD ON GROUNDHOG DAY, WITH VALLEY MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 50.

TUESDAY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIKE WINTER, AS 00Z
ECMWF DIRECTS COLDER NW FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE NEVADA.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES PER ECMWF GUIDANCE. MENTIONED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. AGAIN, NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. BT

&&

.AVIATION...IMPROVED FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. ALL TERMINALS
DRY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS NEVADA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM KEKO TO KELY
THROUGH 18Z, THEN VFR AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES. CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL, SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 281000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY
THIS MORNING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS THE
LKN CWFA ARE IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ELKO AREA AND RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARDS ELKO COUNTY FROM IDAHO...TWIN
FALLS IS RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT FEATURE BRUSHES THE NE
PART OF THE STATE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS. CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP BUT
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CRUISE ALONG IN THE 40S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP MODESTLY INTO THE 20S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA THEN SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EARLY
TIMING FOR SHOWERS CREEPING NORTHWARD TO HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
MORNING HOWEVER THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS MORE LIKE AN AFTERNOON
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES TO BETWEEN 6000 AND
6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
THE NORM. THEN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS DIP TO AROUND
6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

THE MILD WINTER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
BOTH AFTERNOON HIGH AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL.

ODD PATTERN FOR JANUARY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM ELKO TO YUMA, ARIZONA PULLING IN COPIOUS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH LATE FRIDAY, WITH THE NW EDGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPACTING THE SE CWA, MAINLY EASTERN WHITE
PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES. ALONG WITH WFOS SLC AND LAS VEGAS,
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SE CWA. MENTIONED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THICKNESSES FALL
OFF TO NEAR 546 DM WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED.

CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR THE GRAND CANYON SATURDAY MORNING, AND SINKS
SOUTHWARD, ENDING UP WEST OF TUCSON, ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA, AND KEPT ALL ZONES
DRY. THE MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNABATED FOR THE LAST DAY OF
JANUARY, IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE PACIFIC, WITH MAXIMUM
AMPLIFICATION ON SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE FLATTENS TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW
BY AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT ALL ZONES DRY WITH LOWER 50S MORE WIDESPREAD.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING DIRTY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING SOME TO THE SW.
ALL MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY, SO
INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED MILD ON GROUNDHOG DAY, WITH VALLEY MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 50.

TUESDAY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIKE WINTER, AS 00Z
ECMWF DIRECTS COLDER NW FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE NEVADA.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES PER ECMWF GUIDANCE. MENTIONED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. AGAIN, NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. BT

&&

.AVIATION...IMPROVED FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. ALL TERMINALS
DRY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS NEVADA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM KEKO TO KELY
THROUGH 18Z, THEN VFR AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES. CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL, SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 281000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY
THIS MORNING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS THE
LKN CWFA ARE IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ELKO AREA AND RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARDS ELKO COUNTY FROM IDAHO...TWIN
FALLS IS RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT FEATURE BRUSHES THE NE
PART OF THE STATE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS. CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP BUT
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CRUISE ALONG IN THE 40S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP MODESTLY INTO THE 20S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA THEN SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EARLY
TIMING FOR SHOWERS CREEPING NORTHWARD TO HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
MORNING HOWEVER THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS MORE LIKE AN AFTERNOON
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES TO BETWEEN 6000 AND
6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
THE NORM. THEN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS DIP TO AROUND
6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

THE MILD WINTER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
BOTH AFTERNOON HIGH AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL.

ODD PATTERN FOR JANUARY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM ELKO TO YUMA, ARIZONA PULLING IN COPIOUS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH LATE FRIDAY, WITH THE NW EDGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPACTING THE SE CWA, MAINLY EASTERN WHITE
PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES. ALONG WITH WFOS SLC AND LAS VEGAS,
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SE CWA. MENTIONED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THICKNESSES FALL
OFF TO NEAR 546 DM WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED.

CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR THE GRAND CANYON SATURDAY MORNING, AND SINKS
SOUTHWARD, ENDING UP WEST OF TUCSON, ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA, AND KEPT ALL ZONES
DRY. THE MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNABATED FOR THE LAST DAY OF
JANUARY, IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE PACIFIC, WITH MAXIMUM
AMPLIFICATION ON SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE FLATTENS TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW
BY AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT ALL ZONES DRY WITH LOWER 50S MORE WIDESPREAD.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING DIRTY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING SOME TO THE SW.
ALL MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY, SO
INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED MILD ON GROUNDHOG DAY, WITH VALLEY MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 50.

TUESDAY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIKE WINTER, AS 00Z
ECMWF DIRECTS COLDER NW FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE NEVADA.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES PER ECMWF GUIDANCE. MENTIONED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. AGAIN, NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. BT

&&

.AVIATION...IMPROVED FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. ALL TERMINALS
DRY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS NEVADA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM KEKO TO KELY
THROUGH 18Z, THEN VFR AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES. CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL, SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99



000
FXUS65 KVEF 280449
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOME LINGERING STRATUS PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN BUT THAT TOO WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERTS...WITH CLEAR SKIES IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND NUDGE THE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES GREATEST ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE FEEL PATCHY FOG IS JUSTIFIED AND INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLUG OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SKY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY
MORNING...WEAK BAGGY TROUGH UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS NOT SUPPORTED BY MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN RAINY
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VALLEY BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TERMINALS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 20K FEET.
WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 280449
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOME LINGERING STRATUS PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN BUT THAT TOO WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERTS...WITH CLEAR SKIES IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND NUDGE THE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES GREATEST ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE FEEL PATCHY FOG IS JUSTIFIED AND INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLUG OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SKY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY
MORNING...WEAK BAGGY TROUGH UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS NOT SUPPORTED BY MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN RAINY
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VALLEY BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TERMINALS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 20K FEET.
WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 280449
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOME LINGERING STRATUS PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN BUT THAT TOO WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERTS...WITH CLEAR SKIES IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND NUDGE THE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES GREATEST ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE FEEL PATCHY FOG IS JUSTIFIED AND INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLUG OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SKY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY
MORNING...WEAK BAGGY TROUGH UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS NOT SUPPORTED BY MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN RAINY
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VALLEY BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TERMINALS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 20K FEET.
WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 280449
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOME LINGERING STRATUS PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN BUT THAT TOO WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERTS...WITH CLEAR SKIES IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND NUDGE THE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES GREATEST ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE FEEL PATCHY FOG IS JUSTIFIED AND INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLUG OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SKY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY
MORNING...WEAK BAGGY TROUGH UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS NOT SUPPORTED BY MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN RAINY
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VALLEY BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TERMINALS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 20K FEET.
WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KREV 280355 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
755 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH BROAD BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES SHOWING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THE PAST
HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE CONFIRMING THIS TREND SHOWING AN
END TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.
SO WE HAVE UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING
AND REMOVE THEM IN ALL AREAS BUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND
RANGE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 280355 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
755 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH BROAD BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES SHOWING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THE PAST
HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE CONFIRMING THIS TREND SHOWING AN
END TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.
SO WE HAVE UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING
AND REMOVE THEM IN ALL AREAS BUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND
RANGE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 280355 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
755 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH BROAD BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES SHOWING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THE PAST
HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE CONFIRMING THIS TREND SHOWING AN
END TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.
SO WE HAVE UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING
AND REMOVE THEM IN ALL AREAS BUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND
RANGE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KLKN 272324
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
324 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SILVER STATE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS ACTUALLY JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A STRAY
LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE AND THERE THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE WIDESPREAD. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT THINK ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THANKS TO THE OVERALL MILD AIR MASS AND THE CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY OVERALL AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A STRAY LINGERING SHOWER EARLY IN THE
MORNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL HAVE SOME BREAKS BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SUN. WITH MILD
AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE EXPECT HIGHS TO EASILY GET WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BUT WITHOUT SUNSHINE THEY SHOULDN`T GET TOO EXTREME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME LEADING PVA FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE. CLOUDS MAY BREAK ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTH BUT IT COULD ALSO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVING IN SO DON`T HAVE ANY FOG IN THE FORECAST YET. LOWS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN RATHER MILD.

THURSDAY TROUGH SETTLES OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. MOST FORCING
WITH PVA WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NEVADA SO THIS AREA HAS THE BEST
SHOT OF ANY SHOWERS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN COMMON EVEN IN THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED WELL SOUTH. FORCING SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA
HOWEVER...AND AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER SOUTH...NUDGING HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. RCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW CENTER IN
ARIZONA CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO NEVADA THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
DIMINISHING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. RIDGE FLATTENS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE EC THE FLATTEST. THUS EC HINTS AT SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NV WHILE GFS PUSHES THE RAIN INTO
NORTHERN IDAHO. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...HAVE KEPT NO
MENTION OF POPS SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
RIDGE BEING DIRTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MIGHT BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. JH

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER
THE SITES...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/87/87



000
FXUS65 KREV 272241
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)














000
FXUS65 KREV 272241
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)














000
FXUS65 KREV 272241
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)














000
FXUS65 KREV 272241
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)














000
FXUS65 KVEF 272234
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES GREATEST ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE FEEL PATCHY FOG IS JUSTIFIED AND INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLUG OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SKY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY
MORNING...WEAK BAGGY TROUGH UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS NOT SUPPORTED BY MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN RAINY
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VALLEY BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TERMINALS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 20K FEET.
WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 272234
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES GREATEST ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE FEEL PATCHY FOG IS JUSTIFIED AND INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLUG OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SKY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY
MORNING...WEAK BAGGY TROUGH UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS NOT SUPPORTED BY MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN RAINY
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VALLEY BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TERMINALS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 20K FEET.
WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 271750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. CEILINGS
STARTING TO LIFT WITH PATCHES OF BLUE SKY BECOMING VISIBLE. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEND OUT ANOTHER
UPDATE AROUND 10 AM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...IMPROVING CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH BREAKS
IN OVERCAST ALREADY MORE APPARENT OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4K OR 5K FEET BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
CEILINGS/FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. OVERALL THE RAIN EVENT HAS UNFOLDED PRETTY
MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH FALLING
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. AMOUNTS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VARIED BETWEEN A TENTH AND AS MUCH
AS A HALF AN INCH NEAR LAKE HAVASU.  PARTS OF SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED A GOOD SOAKING OF BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AND NEARLY SEVEN-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AS THE TROUGH DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING IT WILL
DRAG THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT... ALLOWING FOR THINGS
TO DRY OUT BY SUNRISE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE GREAT
BASIN. FURTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET.

BY TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS THIS SYSTEM NEVER REALLY SCOURED THINGS OUT
AS IT DEPARTED...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC IMPULSE...TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT REGARDING THE LOCATION
OF HIGHEST POPS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA
WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO JUSTIFY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN POINTING TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN
PARTICULAR MOHAVE COUNTY...AS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA JUSTIFIED AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY. WHILE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT A DRYING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
THE ENTIRE CWA SEEING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS THE LOW DEPARTS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS... ESPECIALLY
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...LIKELY BEING AFFECTED THE MOST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
THAT OBSERVED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 271750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. CEILINGS
STARTING TO LIFT WITH PATCHES OF BLUE SKY BECOMING VISIBLE. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEND OUT ANOTHER
UPDATE AROUND 10 AM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...IMPROVING CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH BREAKS
IN OVERCAST ALREADY MORE APPARENT OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4K OR 5K FEET BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
CEILINGS/FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. OVERALL THE RAIN EVENT HAS UNFOLDED PRETTY
MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH FALLING
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. AMOUNTS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VARIED BETWEEN A TENTH AND AS MUCH
AS A HALF AN INCH NEAR LAKE HAVASU.  PARTS OF SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED A GOOD SOAKING OF BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AND NEARLY SEVEN-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AS THE TROUGH DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING IT WILL
DRAG THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT... ALLOWING FOR THINGS
TO DRY OUT BY SUNRISE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE GREAT
BASIN. FURTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET.

BY TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS THIS SYSTEM NEVER REALLY SCOURED THINGS OUT
AS IT DEPARTED...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC IMPULSE...TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT REGARDING THE LOCATION
OF HIGHEST POPS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA
WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO JUSTIFY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN POINTING TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN
PARTICULAR MOHAVE COUNTY...AS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA JUSTIFIED AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY. WHILE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT A DRYING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
THE ENTIRE CWA SEEING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS THE LOW DEPARTS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS... ESPECIALLY
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...LIKELY BEING AFFECTED THE MOST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
THAT OBSERVED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 271750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. CEILINGS
STARTING TO LIFT WITH PATCHES OF BLUE SKY BECOMING VISIBLE. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEND OUT ANOTHER
UPDATE AROUND 10 AM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...IMPROVING CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH BREAKS
IN OVERCAST ALREADY MORE APPARENT OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4K OR 5K FEET BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
CEILINGS/FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. OVERALL THE RAIN EVENT HAS UNFOLDED PRETTY
MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH FALLING
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. AMOUNTS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VARIED BETWEEN A TENTH AND AS MUCH
AS A HALF AN INCH NEAR LAKE HAVASU.  PARTS OF SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED A GOOD SOAKING OF BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AND NEARLY SEVEN-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AS THE TROUGH DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING IT WILL
DRAG THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT... ALLOWING FOR THINGS
TO DRY OUT BY SUNRISE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE GREAT
BASIN. FURTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET.

BY TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS THIS SYSTEM NEVER REALLY SCOURED THINGS OUT
AS IT DEPARTED...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC IMPULSE...TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT REGARDING THE LOCATION
OF HIGHEST POPS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA
WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO JUSTIFY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN POINTING TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN
PARTICULAR MOHAVE COUNTY...AS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA JUSTIFIED AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY. WHILE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT A DRYING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
THE ENTIRE CWA SEEING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS THE LOW DEPARTS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS... ESPECIALLY
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...LIKELY BEING AFFECTED THE MOST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
THAT OBSERVED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 271750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. CEILINGS
STARTING TO LIFT WITH PATCHES OF BLUE SKY BECOMING VISIBLE. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEND OUT ANOTHER
UPDATE AROUND 10 AM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...IMPROVING CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH BREAKS
IN OVERCAST ALREADY MORE APPARENT OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4K OR 5K FEET BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
CEILINGS/FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. OVERALL THE RAIN EVENT HAS UNFOLDED PRETTY
MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH FALLING
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. AMOUNTS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VARIED BETWEEN A TENTH AND AS MUCH
AS A HALF AN INCH NEAR LAKE HAVASU.  PARTS OF SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED A GOOD SOAKING OF BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AND NEARLY SEVEN-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AS THE TROUGH DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING IT WILL
DRAG THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT... ALLOWING FOR THINGS
TO DRY OUT BY SUNRISE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE GREAT
BASIN. FURTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET.

BY TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS THIS SYSTEM NEVER REALLY SCOURED THINGS OUT
AS IT DEPARTED...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC IMPULSE...TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT REGARDING THE LOCATION
OF HIGHEST POPS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA
WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO JUSTIFY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN POINTING TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN
PARTICULAR MOHAVE COUNTY...AS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA JUSTIFIED AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY. WHILE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT A DRYING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
THE ENTIRE CWA SEEING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS THE LOW DEPARTS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS... ESPECIALLY
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...LIKELY BEING AFFECTED THE MOST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
THAT OBSERVED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






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