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000
FXUS65 KVEF 260448 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
847 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
220 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND (THU-FRI). A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THE AFORE MENTIONED
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
FREE OF ANY ADVERSE WEATHER AS SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE STORM.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WERE FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON
LAST NIGHTS COMPUTER MODEL RUN THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WOULD NOT
PHASE AND THUS KEEP THE LOW AN OPEN WAVE THAT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE
AREA A BIT QUICKER. THIS PUT THE GFS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED TO AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION LIKE THE GFE. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT
THE AFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE WINDS AND MAYBE SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOWS...RATHER THAN A MORE WET FORECAST WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THE
NEXT 24 MORE HOURS WILL TELL US A BIT MORE. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
THIS WEEKEND THEN YOU CAN FOLLOW INFORMATION ON THIS STORM BY
SEARCHING #LEFTOVERSWX ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK. WESTERN REGION
OFFICES HAVE AGREED TO USE THIS HASHTAG TO SEND UPDATES ON THE
STORM.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY DURING THE
DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA....VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS STRONGER WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

GORELOW/LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 260448 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
847 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
220 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND (THU-FRI). A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THE AFORE MENTIONED
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
FREE OF ANY ADVERSE WEATHER AS SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE STORM.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WERE FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON
LAST NIGHTS COMPUTER MODEL RUN THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WOULD NOT
PHASE AND THUS KEEP THE LOW AN OPEN WAVE THAT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE
AREA A BIT QUICKER. THIS PUT THE GFS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED TO AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION LIKE THE GFE. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT
THE AFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE WINDS AND MAYBE SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOWS...RATHER THAN A MORE WET FORECAST WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THE
NEXT 24 MORE HOURS WILL TELL US A BIT MORE. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
THIS WEEKEND THEN YOU CAN FOLLOW INFORMATION ON THIS STORM BY
SEARCHING #LEFTOVERSWX ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK. WESTERN REGION
OFFICES HAVE AGREED TO USE THIS HASHTAG TO SEND UPDATES ON THE
STORM.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY DURING THE
DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA....VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS STRONGER WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

GORELOW/LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














  [top]

000
FXUS65 KLKN 252247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THANKSGIVING
DAY AND LEFTOVER DAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VERY MILD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE BRIEF REBUILDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER MOST OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MONDAY AS
THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH PUSHING TROF INTO NORTHERN CA AND THUS
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN NV QUICKER...WHEREAS THE EC
CONFINES THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES IT
FASTER SPEED WITH THE TROF MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA. HAVE
JUST LOW POPS NEXT TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF
SITES AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 252247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THANKSGIVING
DAY AND LEFTOVER DAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VERY MILD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE BRIEF REBUILDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER MOST OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MONDAY AS
THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH PUSHING TROF INTO NORTHERN CA AND THUS
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN NV QUICKER...WHEREAS THE EC
CONFINES THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES IT
FASTER SPEED WITH THE TROF MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA. HAVE
JUST LOW POPS NEXT TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF
SITES AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 252247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THANKSGIVING
DAY AND LEFTOVER DAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VERY MILD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE BRIEF REBUILDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER MOST OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MONDAY AS
THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH PUSHING TROF INTO NORTHERN CA AND THUS
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN NV QUICKER...WHEREAS THE EC
CONFINES THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES IT
FASTER SPEED WITH THE TROF MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA. HAVE
JUST LOW POPS NEXT TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF
SITES AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 252247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THANKSGIVING
DAY AND LEFTOVER DAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VERY MILD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE BRIEF REBUILDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER MOST OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MONDAY AS
THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH PUSHING TROF INTO NORTHERN CA AND THUS
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN NV QUICKER...WHEREAS THE EC
CONFINES THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES IT
FASTER SPEED WITH THE TROF MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA. HAVE
JUST LOW POPS NEXT TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF
SITES AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/87/87




000
FXUS65 KVEF 252220
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND (THU-FRI). A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THE AFORE MENTIONED
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
FREE OF ANY ADVERSE WEATHER AS SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE STORM.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WERE FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON
LAST NIGHTS COMPUTER MODEL RUN THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WOULD NOT
PHASE AND THUS KEEP THE LOW AN OPEN WAVE THAT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE
AREA A BIT QUICKER. THIS PUT THE GFS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED TO AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION LIKE THE GFE. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT
THE AFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE WINDS AND MAYBE SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOWS...RATHER THAN A MORE WET FORECAST WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THE
NEXT 24 MORE HOURS WILL TELL US A BIT MORE. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
THIS WEEKEND THEN YOU CAN FOLLOW INFORMATION ON THIS STORM BY
SEARCHING #LEFTOVERSWX ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK. WESTERN REGION
OFFICES HAVE AGREED TO USE THIS HASHTAG TO SEND UPDATES ON THE
STORM. &&

.AVIATION...
FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY DURING THE
DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA....VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS STRONGER WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 252220
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND (THU-FRI). A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THE AFORE MENTIONED
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
FREE OF ANY ADVERSE WEATHER AS SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE STORM.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WERE FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON
LAST NIGHTS COMPUTER MODEL RUN THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WOULD NOT
PHASE AND THUS KEEP THE LOW AN OPEN WAVE THAT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE
AREA A BIT QUICKER. THIS PUT THE GFS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED TO AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION LIKE THE GFE. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT
THE AFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE WINDS AND MAYBE SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOWS...RATHER THAN A MORE WET FORECAST WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THE
NEXT 24 MORE HOURS WILL TELL US A BIT MORE. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
THIS WEEKEND THEN YOU CAN FOLLOW INFORMATION ON THIS STORM BY
SEARCHING #LEFTOVERSWX ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK. WESTERN REGION
OFFICES HAVE AGREED TO USE THIS HASHTAG TO SEND UPDATES ON THE
STORM. &&

.AVIATION...
FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY DURING THE
DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA....VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS STRONGER WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 252220
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND (THU-FRI). A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THE AFORE MENTIONED
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
FREE OF ANY ADVERSE WEATHER AS SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE STORM.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WERE FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON
LAST NIGHTS COMPUTER MODEL RUN THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WOULD NOT
PHASE AND THUS KEEP THE LOW AN OPEN WAVE THAT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE
AREA A BIT QUICKER. THIS PUT THE GFS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED TO AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION LIKE THE GFE. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT
THE AFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE WINDS AND MAYBE SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOWS...RATHER THAN A MORE WET FORECAST WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THE
NEXT 24 MORE HOURS WILL TELL US A BIT MORE. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
THIS WEEKEND THEN YOU CAN FOLLOW INFORMATION ON THIS STORM BY
SEARCHING #LEFTOVERSWX ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK. WESTERN REGION
OFFICES HAVE AGREED TO USE THIS HASHTAG TO SEND UPDATES ON THE
STORM. &&

.AVIATION...
FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY DURING THE
DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA....VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS STRONGER WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 252220
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND (THU-FRI). A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THE AFORE MENTIONED
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
FREE OF ANY ADVERSE WEATHER AS SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE STORM.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WERE FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON
LAST NIGHTS COMPUTER MODEL RUN THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WOULD NOT
PHASE AND THUS KEEP THE LOW AN OPEN WAVE THAT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE
AREA A BIT QUICKER. THIS PUT THE GFS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED TO AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION LIKE THE GFE. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT
THE AFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE WINDS AND MAYBE SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOWS...RATHER THAN A MORE WET FORECAST WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THE
NEXT 24 MORE HOURS WILL TELL US A BIT MORE. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
THIS WEEKEND THEN YOU CAN FOLLOW INFORMATION ON THIS STORM BY
SEARCHING #LEFTOVERSWX ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK. WESTERN REGION
OFFICES HAVE AGREED TO USE THIS HASHTAG TO SEND UPDATES ON THE
STORM. &&

.AVIATION...
FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY DURING THE
DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA....VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS STRONGER WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 252209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SIERRA SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AN MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THANKSGIVING, THEN
WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY COULD CLIMB TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
VALUES. THE RECORD HIGH AT THE RENO AIRPORT FOR NOV 27TH IS 70
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1946.

FIRST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE JET
PASSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. BEST CHANCES
ARE OVER PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY, WHERE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO 6000-7000 FEET.
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.50 INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE FOR PLUMAS AND
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, THEN FALLING OFF TO 0.10 INCH OR LESS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 395. LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE DONNER SUMMIT AREA, BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST FOR THE SATURDAY-
SUNDAY TIME FRAME, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF SNOW LEVELS ARE 6500-7000
FEET FOR NORTHEAST CA, AND 7000-8000 FEET NEAR THE SIERRA FROM
TAHOE SOUTHWARD SO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER PASSES.

SUNDAY MAY NOT BE AS WET AS LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN LOW
OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 130W, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER EASTERN
NEVADA AMPLIFYING A BIT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BACKING OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND THE MOISTURE FEED
RETREATING FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHWEST-NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INLAND, ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A
BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE DATA. THE POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST AND IN NORTHEAST CA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NV AROUND THE
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BELOW 6000
FEET BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO
THE TAHOE BASIN, BUT THE AIR MASS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING MEASURABLE SNOW INTO WESTERN NV VALLEYS BELOW 5000 FEET.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL RATHER LOW FOR THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THIS STORM AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
THE SNOW LEVELS.

FOR NEXT TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE WINDING DOWN AS
THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER CA-NV. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 251751
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
951 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
ELSE LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER 01Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [XXX AM PST]...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A
FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS
ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY
/REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT THIS SAME TIME/. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: GORELOW
LONG TERM: MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 251751
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
951 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
ELSE LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER 01Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [XXX AM PST]...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A
FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS
ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY
/REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT THIS SAME TIME/. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: GORELOW
LONG TERM: MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 251751
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
951 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
ELSE LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER 01Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [XXX AM PST]...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A
FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS
ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY
/REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT THIS SAME TIME/. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: GORELOW
LONG TERM: MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 251751
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
951 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
ELSE LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER 01Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [XXX AM PST]...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A
FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS
ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY
/REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT THIS SAME TIME/. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: GORELOW
LONG TERM: MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 251751 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
951 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
ELSE LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER 01Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [208 AM PST]...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A
FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS
ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY
/REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT THIS SAME TIME/. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: GORELOW
LONG TERM: MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 251751 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
951 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
ELSE LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ASOS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE MIDFIELD SENSOR
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER 01Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [208 AM PST]...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A
FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS
ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY
/REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT THIS SAME TIME/. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: GORELOW
LONG TERM: MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KLKN 251032 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95



000
FXUS65 KLKN 251032 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95




000
FXUS65 KLKN 251030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95




000
FXUS65 KLKN 251030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95




000
FXUS65 KLKN 251030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95




000
FXUS65 KLKN 251030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95




000
FXUS65 KVEF 251009
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
208 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE THIS WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE
IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE
THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL
RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON
MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO
MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE
SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS
AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME
OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO
NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY /REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT
THIS SAME TIME/. IN SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO
THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 12 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 16Z THEN FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 251009
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
208 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE THIS WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DAILY INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP AND
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
ELECTED TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FOR TODAY FOR THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO JUMP AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING CLOSE TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE
IS STILL ON THE WAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING MAY BE EVEN WORSE
THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ONSET OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP...WITH OPERATIONAL
RUNS NOW SHOWING PRECIP REACHING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON
MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO
MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
GFS PHASES THE TWO SYSTEMS /A FREQUENT MODEL BIAS/ AND DRIVES THE
SOUTHERN STORM THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGING RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE SYSTEMS
AND THUS MOVES THE SOUTHERN ONE MUCH MORE SLOWLY...SHOWING A PLUME
OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS ADVECTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH THEN SLUGGISHLY MOVES TO
NEAR LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY /REMEMBER THE GFS WAS SHOWING RIDGING AT
THIS SAME TIME/. IN SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO
THE GRIDS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 12 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 16Z THEN FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT STILL EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH TODAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 250552 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
255 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN WARM ANOTHER
4-6 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
COOLING TREND ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND RECENT PAST PERFORMANCE ON JUST WHEN THE STORM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE...LEAVES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD
PRIMARILY BE A MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY STORM. EITHER WAY,
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM, WITH REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS UNDER 8KTS GENERALLY FAVORING
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL SOUTHWEST UP TO 10KTS
AFTER 02Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING IN THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KVEF 250552 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
255 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN WARM ANOTHER
4-6 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
COOLING TREND ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND RECENT PAST PERFORMANCE ON JUST WHEN THE STORM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE...LEAVES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD
PRIMARILY BE A MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY STORM. EITHER WAY,
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM, WITH REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS UNDER 8KTS GENERALLY FAVORING
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL SOUTHWEST UP TO 10KTS
AFTER 02Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING IN THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KREV 242312
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND IMPACT
TRAVEL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO TRAVEL
IMPACTS FOR THE START OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP 30-50 MPH WINDS OVER RIDGES IN MONO
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A TRANSITION TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE AS
MODELS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
AS WE SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY
TIMEFRAME.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE SIERRA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN ELEVATED AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND VALLEY
RAINFALL. SOME EARLY MODEL PROJECTIONS PROVIDE ABOUT 0.5-1.0" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO LASSEN COUNTY. UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS STILL IS HIGH THIS
FAR OUT BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
6500-7000 FEET RANGE WHICH MAY PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER SIERRA PASSES.

LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TIMING STILL NOT REFINED BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL MORE IN THE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WINDOW. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED AND SLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO MORE IN THE
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. BEING A WEEK OUT, MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
1-2+ INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME HINT OF
AMPLIFYING THE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH MAY HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO SLOW AND DIG THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD GREATLY
REDUCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE THIS FAR
OUT WOULD BE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND
KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN
11Z-16Z. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 242312
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND IMPACT
TRAVEL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO TRAVEL
IMPACTS FOR THE START OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP 30-50 MPH WINDS OVER RIDGES IN MONO
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A TRANSITION TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE AS
MODELS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
AS WE SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY
TIMEFRAME.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE SIERRA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN ELEVATED AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND VALLEY
RAINFALL. SOME EARLY MODEL PROJECTIONS PROVIDE ABOUT 0.5-1.0" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO LASSEN COUNTY. UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS STILL IS HIGH THIS
FAR OUT BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
6500-7000 FEET RANGE WHICH MAY PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER SIERRA PASSES.

LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TIMING STILL NOT REFINED BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL MORE IN THE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WINDOW. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED AND SLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO MORE IN THE
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. BEING A WEEK OUT, MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
1-2+ INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME HINT OF
AMPLIFYING THE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH MAY HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO SLOW AND DIG THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD GREATLY
REDUCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE THIS FAR
OUT WOULD BE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND
KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN
11Z-16Z. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 242255
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN WARM ANOTHER
4-6 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
COOLING TREND ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND RECENT PAST PERFORMANCE ON JUST WHEN THE STORM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE...LEAVES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD
PRIMARILY BE A MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY STORM. EITHER WAY,
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM, WITH REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS UNDER 8KTS GENERALLY FAVORING
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL SOUTHWEST UP TO 10KTS
AFTER 02Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING IN THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 242255
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN WARM ANOTHER
4-6 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
COOLING TREND ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND RECENT PAST PERFORMANCE ON JUST WHEN THE STORM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE...LEAVES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD
PRIMARILY BE A MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY STORM. EITHER WAY,
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM, WITH REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS UNDER 8KTS GENERALLY FAVORING
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL SOUTHWEST UP TO 10KTS
AFTER 02Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING IN THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KLKN 242231
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
231 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE MOVING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA NEAR THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS FOR A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS
DURING FRIDAY AND THICKEN THE CLOUD COVER UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY CWA WIDE SATURDAY. LIGHT STRATIFORM PCPN WILL AFFECT
HUMBOLDT COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN NEVADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORT WAVE INITIALLY THAN THE ECMWF
THUS IS THE WETTER AND PREFERRED MODEL. THE ECMWF INTRODUCES AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE FAR NORTH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND HOLDS
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE WEST UNTIL THE NEXT POTENT SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST VERY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THE GFS IS QUICKER IN MOVING THE
CUTOFF SYSTEM ONSHORE /SUNDAY/ THAN THE ECMWF /LATE MONDAY/. IN ANY
EVENT...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY AND H7 TEMPERATURES TO
AOB MINUS SEVEN DEGREES C. AT THIS TIME FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAVE FAVORED THE QUICKER/COLDER GFS SOLUTION WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS65 KLKN 242231
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
231 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE MOVING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA NEAR THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS FOR A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS
DURING FRIDAY AND THICKEN THE CLOUD COVER UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY CWA WIDE SATURDAY. LIGHT STRATIFORM PCPN WILL AFFECT
HUMBOLDT COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN NEVADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORT WAVE INITIALLY THAN THE ECMWF
THUS IS THE WETTER AND PREFERRED MODEL. THE ECMWF INTRODUCES AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE FAR NORTH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND HOLDS
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE WEST UNTIL THE NEXT POTENT SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST VERY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THE GFS IS QUICKER IN MOVING THE
CUTOFF SYSTEM ONSHORE /SUNDAY/ THAN THE ECMWF /LATE MONDAY/. IN ANY
EVENT...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY AND H7 TEMPERATURES TO
AOB MINUS SEVEN DEGREES C. AT THIS TIME FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAVE FAVORED THE QUICKER/COLDER GFS SOLUTION WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS65 KVEF 241750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT AND DRY
AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR
NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL WINDS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL. TWEAKED SKY AND
WIND BUT OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 10-20KTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING THE KEED AREA. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...226 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 241750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT AND DRY
AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR
NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL WINDS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL. TWEAKED SKY AND
WIND BUT OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 10-20KTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING THE KEED AREA. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...226 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 241750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT AND DRY
AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR
NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL WINDS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL. TWEAKED SKY AND
WIND BUT OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 10-20KTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING THE KEED AREA. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...226 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 241750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT AND DRY
AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR
NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL WINDS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL. TWEAKED SKY AND
WIND BUT OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 10-20KTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING THE KEED AREA. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...226 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 241123
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
323 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE RIDGE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MID-WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT WORKS INTO THE VALLEYS AND
THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MODIFIES.

PRECIPITATION-WISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY TONIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). IT WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STRONGEST
WAA WILL BE UP IN OREGON. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS A FLAT RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SIERRA VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS
THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN. LIGHT RAIN IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST, SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV, WITH COOLER AIR ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCING
OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SNOW LEVELS BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN FOR SUNDAY. WHILE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRENDING UPWARD FOR SUNDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS TARGETING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DECEMBER 1 FOR THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND DISCUSSIONS
AS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW COULD FINALLY REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS THE NEW MONTH BEGINS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU TUESDAY.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z-16Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. FUENTES/MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 241123
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
323 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE RIDGE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MID-WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT WORKS INTO THE VALLEYS AND
THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MODIFIES.

PRECIPITATION-WISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY TONIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). IT WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STRONGEST
WAA WILL BE UP IN OREGON. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS A FLAT RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SIERRA VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS
THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN. LIGHT RAIN IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST, SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV, WITH COOLER AIR ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCING
OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SNOW LEVELS BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN FOR SUNDAY. WHILE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRENDING UPWARD FOR SUNDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS TARGETING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DECEMBER 1 FOR THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND DISCUSSIONS
AS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW COULD FINALLY REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS THE NEW MONTH BEGINS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU TUESDAY.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z-16Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. FUENTES/MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 241026
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
226 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT AND DRY
AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR
NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 241026
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
226 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT AND DRY
AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR
NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KLKN 241000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
THANKSGIVING WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH CLIMBING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS DELIVERING A PLEASANT WARMING TREND.

TODAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF NEVADA,
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEVADA FROM TIME TO
TIME ON THE NW FLOW. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80 THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS DIRECTLY OVER
NEVADA, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING WELL INTO THE 50S WITH
A FEW LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL NEVADA. CLOUDS DECREASE UNDER THE
RIDGE, WITH FANTASTIC WEATHER FOR THE BIGGEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE
YEAR.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE IS
POSITIONED ABOUT 100 MILES FURTHER OFFSHORE TO START THIS PERIOD
THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. SO THERE MAY BE MORE
DOWNSTREAM TIMING ISSUES WITH UPCOMING WEEKEND PRECIPITATION. THAT
SAID...ITS PRETTY SAFE TO SAY THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ABOUT 400
MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN BAJA WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
MODERATE.

THANKSGIVING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST ENOUGH TO CREATE A RESURGENCE OF RIDGING
OVER NEVADA AND ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE ON TAP. EARLY MORNING
SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA NEAR THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDERS.

SUNDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CALIFORNIA COAST...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GET NUDGED EAST AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92




000
FXUS65 KVEF 240955
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT
AND DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM
NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 240955
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT
AND DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM
NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 240955
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT
AND DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM
NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 240955
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT
AND DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM
NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 240955
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT
AND DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM
NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 240955
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT
AND DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM
NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







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