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000
FXUS65 KLKN 192106
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
206 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY
FOR DRY CONDITIONS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK BRINGING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS TO WHITE
PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOT TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NEEDED RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO NEAR SAN
DIEGO.

THURSDAY...CLOSED SAN DIEGO LOW EJECTS NE INTO ARIZONA, WITH BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREEING ON A CLOSED 558 LOW NEAR BLYTHE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS LOW`S TRACK, AND
NOTEWORTHY INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDEX OF -1C TO -2C WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE CWA) WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER CROP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND, WITH GFS FORECASTING SURFACE-BASED
CAPE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG THURSDAY. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE THE
TYPICAL SCATTERED NATURE FOR CONVECTION, AND THE CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN AT ANY ONE VALLEY LOCATION WILL RUN NEAR 40%. SOME
WILL GET RAIN, SOME WON`T. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR N/NW NEVADA
FOR RECEIVING THE MOST BENEFICIAL RAINS ON THURSDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...ARIZONA UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS, AND OUT OF THE
PICTURE BY 5 PM. HOWEVER, INFLUENCE FROM A SEPARATE TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NEVADA`S WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED FRIDAY, ALL
MODELS GENERATE SIGNIFICANT QPF AND INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS JET DYNAMICS APPROACHING FROM THE NW
WILL INTERACT WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG TO GENERATE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. POP GRIDS ARE HIGHEST ALONG A JARBIDGE MTNS-
RUBY MTNS- EUREKA- ROUND MOUNTAIN LINE. SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN BE REALIZED. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...12Z ECMWF PASSES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH NEVADA
SATURDAY MORNING, FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. TROUGH IS
WELL NE OF NEVADA BY AFTERNOON, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
PROMOTING DRIER WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. MODELS BEGIN TO GO INTO
DISARRAY SATURDAY, WITH GFS KEEPING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.
GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN ECMWF ON SATURDAY. SPLIT THE
TEMP/POP DIFFERENCES.

SUNDAY...MODELS BACK INTO AGREEMENT SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NEVADA ON 12Z ECMWF, WARM DRY SW FLOW
TAKING OVER ON GFS. EITHER WAY, A PLEASANT SPRING DAY EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...ALL MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT NEXT
LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG WARM UP
ON MONDAY APRIL 27TH, FOLLOWED BY WIND, RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TURNER

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 19Z MON, SW-NW WINDS 5-15 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 192106
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
206 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY
FOR DRY CONDITIONS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK BRINGING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS TO WHITE
PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOT TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NEEDED RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO NEAR SAN
DIEGO.

THURSDAY...CLOSED SAN DIEGO LOW EJECTS NE INTO ARIZONA, WITH BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREEING ON A CLOSED 558 LOW NEAR BLYTHE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS LOW`S TRACK, AND
NOTEWORTHY INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDEX OF -1C TO -2C WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE CWA) WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER CROP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND, WITH GFS FORECASTING SURFACE-BASED
CAPE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG THURSDAY. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE THE
TYPICAL SCATTERED NATURE FOR CONVECTION, AND THE CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN AT ANY ONE VALLEY LOCATION WILL RUN NEAR 40%. SOME
WILL GET RAIN, SOME WON`T. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR N/NW NEVADA
FOR RECEIVING THE MOST BENEFICIAL RAINS ON THURSDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...ARIZONA UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS, AND OUT OF THE
PICTURE BY 5 PM. HOWEVER, INFLUENCE FROM A SEPARATE TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NEVADA`S WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED FRIDAY, ALL
MODELS GENERATE SIGNIFICANT QPF AND INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS JET DYNAMICS APPROACHING FROM THE NW
WILL INTERACT WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG TO GENERATE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. POP GRIDS ARE HIGHEST ALONG A JARBIDGE MTNS-
RUBY MTNS- EUREKA- ROUND MOUNTAIN LINE. SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN BE REALIZED. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...12Z ECMWF PASSES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH NEVADA
SATURDAY MORNING, FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. TROUGH IS
WELL NE OF NEVADA BY AFTERNOON, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
PROMOTING DRIER WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. MODELS BEGIN TO GO INTO
DISARRAY SATURDAY, WITH GFS KEEPING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.
GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN ECMWF ON SATURDAY. SPLIT THE
TEMP/POP DIFFERENCES.

SUNDAY...MODELS BACK INTO AGREEMENT SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NEVADA ON 12Z ECMWF, WARM DRY SW FLOW
TAKING OVER ON GFS. EITHER WAY, A PLEASANT SPRING DAY EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...ALL MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT NEXT
LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG WARM UP
ON MONDAY APRIL 27TH, FOLLOWED BY WIND, RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TURNER

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 19Z MON, SW-NW WINDS 5-15 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99



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000
FXUS65 KREV 192040
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EARLY-MID WEEK AS ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CAP SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LIMIT IT TO THE
SIERRA MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE CREST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE. ACTIVITY
WAS MOSTLY FORMING WEST OF THE CREST AT MID AFTERNOON AND WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE NORTHEAST STORM LAYER FLOW. LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO BEGIN
WORKING BACK NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT/BETTER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AGAIN MAINLY LOCKED TO THE SIERRA. WE MAINTAINED
THE CHANCE ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE REACHING THAT FAR NORTH.
THROUGH MONDAY, SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW DRY SUB LAYERS,
ALTHOUGH MOISTENING WITH TIME. SO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER STRONGER CORES MAINLY
BEGINNING MONDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS CONSIDERABLY TUE-WED AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD
ON ITS BACK SIDE NEAR THE CA COAST. DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED, BUT
INSTABILITY IS GOOD WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM,
AND AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE DEFORMATION. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST DAY AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY BE EXCESSIVE WEDNESDAY AND
LIMIT INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE
SIERRA, AND UNLIKE TODAY AND MONDAY, THEY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT
INTO WESTERN NV WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN DEFORMATION ZONE OF SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL/ARIZONA. INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS EACH DAY. THERE COULD BE SLOW MOVING BANDS
OF RAIN/TSTMS THAT PRODUCE APPRECIABLE WETTING RAINS OR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THURSDAY, BUT IT`S TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO PREDICT
WHERE/WHEN THAT MAY OCCUR. FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY WHERE SOME
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BUT BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY IS MIGRATING
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/UT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER WITH RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW DEPICTED
IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SO HAVE TRENDED POPS/RH DOWN TO REFLECT
THIS. SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN IN THE SIMULATIONS FOR NEXT SUNDAY, SO
HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL. OVERALL IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE A PLEASANT LATE APRIL WEEKEND.

INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OF A PACIFIC "WINTER-LIKE" STORM IMPACTING NORTHERN CA AND
THE SIERRA. LIKELY NOT A BIG PRECIP MAKER DUE TO LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, BUT SIERRA SNOWS AND STRONG WINDS IN
WESTERN NV COULD BE THE RESULT WITH CORRESPONDING TRAVEL IMPACTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, AND WE`RE STILL A LONG WAY OUT SO
PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRACK/IMPACT ADJUSTMENTS, BUT IT`S CERTAINLY
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. CS

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, ROUGHLY 21Z-03Z, ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TVL. THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION, THOUGH SOME CELLS COULD PASS NEAR MMH KICKING UP
THE WINDS. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE INCREASED COVERAGE OF TSTMS
ALONG THE SIERRA WITH MORE INSTABILITY. THAT MAY IMPACT AIR ROUTES
OVER THE SIERRA ALONG WITH TVL/TRK/MMH TAF SITES. AS A HEADS UP,
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE FOR TSTMS AS INSTABILITY
COMBINES WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. COULD EVEN IMPACT RNO/CXP. CS

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 192040
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EARLY-MID WEEK AS ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CAP SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LIMIT IT TO THE
SIERRA MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE CREST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE. ACTIVITY
WAS MOSTLY FORMING WEST OF THE CREST AT MID AFTERNOON AND WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE NORTHEAST STORM LAYER FLOW. LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO BEGIN
WORKING BACK NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT/BETTER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AGAIN MAINLY LOCKED TO THE SIERRA. WE MAINTAINED
THE CHANCE ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE REACHING THAT FAR NORTH.
THROUGH MONDAY, SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW DRY SUB LAYERS,
ALTHOUGH MOISTENING WITH TIME. SO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER STRONGER CORES MAINLY
BEGINNING MONDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS CONSIDERABLY TUE-WED AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD
ON ITS BACK SIDE NEAR THE CA COAST. DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED, BUT
INSTABILITY IS GOOD WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM,
AND AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE DEFORMATION. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST DAY AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY BE EXCESSIVE WEDNESDAY AND
LIMIT INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE
SIERRA, AND UNLIKE TODAY AND MONDAY, THEY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT
INTO WESTERN NV WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN DEFORMATION ZONE OF SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL/ARIZONA. INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS EACH DAY. THERE COULD BE SLOW MOVING BANDS
OF RAIN/TSTMS THAT PRODUCE APPRECIABLE WETTING RAINS OR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THURSDAY, BUT IT`S TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO PREDICT
WHERE/WHEN THAT MAY OCCUR. FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY WHERE SOME
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BUT BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY IS MIGRATING
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/UT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER WITH RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW DEPICTED
IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SO HAVE TRENDED POPS/RH DOWN TO REFLECT
THIS. SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN IN THE SIMULATIONS FOR NEXT SUNDAY, SO
HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL. OVERALL IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE A PLEASANT LATE APRIL WEEKEND.

INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OF A PACIFIC "WINTER-LIKE" STORM IMPACTING NORTHERN CA AND
THE SIERRA. LIKELY NOT A BIG PRECIP MAKER DUE TO LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, BUT SIERRA SNOWS AND STRONG WINDS IN
WESTERN NV COULD BE THE RESULT WITH CORRESPONDING TRAVEL IMPACTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, AND WE`RE STILL A LONG WAY OUT SO
PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRACK/IMPACT ADJUSTMENTS, BUT IT`S CERTAINLY
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. CS

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, ROUGHLY 21Z-03Z, ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TVL. THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION, THOUGH SOME CELLS COULD PASS NEAR MMH KICKING UP
THE WINDS. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE INCREASED COVERAGE OF TSTMS
ALONG THE SIERRA WITH MORE INSTABILITY. THAT MAY IMPACT AIR ROUTES
OVER THE SIERRA ALONG WITH TVL/TRK/MMH TAF SITES. AS A HEADS UP,
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE FOR TSTMS AS INSTABILITY
COMBINES WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. COULD EVEN IMPACT RNO/CXP. CS

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KVEF 191643
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
943 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE MINOR EDITS TO THE
NEAR-TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
STILL EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS /THUNDERSTORM/ TO BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. OUTSIDE CHANCES EXIST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
324 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL THIS
MORNING NEAR 40N/130W WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW AND THE COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT PLUS WHATEVER MOISTURE IT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME ACTIVE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY LACK WITH THIS LOW THE LONGER IT SITS OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP A BETTER SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AND PUSH IT INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
MEAGER SNOWPACK SOME OF THIS WILL SUBLIMATE WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND PROVIDE AN ALTERNATIVE MOISTURE SOURCE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SET OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CREST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA AND
THUS WE KEPT THE BEST POPS HERE. FURTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT WE GOT ACTIVITY TO GO YESTERDAY, WHAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE THE
OVERDONE WRF WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD. SO, THAT AND THE GFS WERE
LEANED TOWARD FOR TODAY`S POPS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN
AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS THE PLATEAU AREA OF
NORTHERN MOHAVE. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. THE STEERING FLOW
TODAY IS LIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
WHITES TO THOSE RANGES. HOWEVER, A LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD PUSH SOME ACTIVITY OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK CANYON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS WHATEVER WE SEE GO LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP A TOUCH IN SPOTS.

AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD A POSITION WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF SOCAL BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WE CARRIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
NOTED WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME ACTIVITY TOWARD THE OWENS
VALLEY OR SOME OUTFLOW SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED IN HERE. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE IT
REMAINS DRY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OVER THE COAST
OF SOCAL OR THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE
FURTHER INLAND AND ALSO RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY OVER MORE OF
THE AREA SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EACH
COUNTY. I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MTS,
INYO RANGE AND THE PANAMINTS. AGAIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
PRESENT SO SOMETHING COULD DRIFT INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND WE KEPT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE SOMETHING COULD DRIFT OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK OR
THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. TEMPS AGAIN
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WEATHER
SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SLATED TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...KEEPING IT A
WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED OPEN WAVE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE JIST OF
THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS
WELL...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING
STRENGTH AND TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE
LOW WHILE EMITTING A SEPARATE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AS IT SWINGS INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT MUCH WEAKER IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLATTER OPEN TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO POTENTLY GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE
STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES...SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...DUE TO THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEFT OVER THE AREA TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LOOMING OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS TRICKY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE
REGARDING FORECAST HIGHS. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP FOR THE
COMING WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE QUESTION OF "HOW LOW WILL WE GO" DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BY LATE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE WINDS FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 191643
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
943 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE MINOR EDITS TO THE
NEAR-TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
STILL EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS /THUNDERSTORM/ TO BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. OUTSIDE CHANCES EXIST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
324 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL THIS
MORNING NEAR 40N/130W WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW AND THE COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT PLUS WHATEVER MOISTURE IT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME ACTIVE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY LACK WITH THIS LOW THE LONGER IT SITS OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP A BETTER SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AND PUSH IT INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
MEAGER SNOWPACK SOME OF THIS WILL SUBLIMATE WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND PROVIDE AN ALTERNATIVE MOISTURE SOURCE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SET OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CREST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA AND
THUS WE KEPT THE BEST POPS HERE. FURTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT WE GOT ACTIVITY TO GO YESTERDAY, WHAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE THE
OVERDONE WRF WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD. SO, THAT AND THE GFS WERE
LEANED TOWARD FOR TODAY`S POPS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN
AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS THE PLATEAU AREA OF
NORTHERN MOHAVE. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. THE STEERING FLOW
TODAY IS LIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
WHITES TO THOSE RANGES. HOWEVER, A LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD PUSH SOME ACTIVITY OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK CANYON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS WHATEVER WE SEE GO LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP A TOUCH IN SPOTS.

AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD A POSITION WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF SOCAL BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WE CARRIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
NOTED WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME ACTIVITY TOWARD THE OWENS
VALLEY OR SOME OUTFLOW SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED IN HERE. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE IT
REMAINS DRY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OVER THE COAST
OF SOCAL OR THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE
FURTHER INLAND AND ALSO RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY OVER MORE OF
THE AREA SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EACH
COUNTY. I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MTS,
INYO RANGE AND THE PANAMINTS. AGAIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
PRESENT SO SOMETHING COULD DRIFT INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND WE KEPT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE SOMETHING COULD DRIFT OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK OR
THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. TEMPS AGAIN
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WEATHER
SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SLATED TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...KEEPING IT A
WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED OPEN WAVE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE JIST OF
THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS
WELL...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING
STRENGTH AND TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE
LOW WHILE EMITTING A SEPARATE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AS IT SWINGS INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT MUCH WEAKER IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLATTER OPEN TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO POTENTLY GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE
STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES...SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...DUE TO THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEFT OVER THE AREA TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LOOMING OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS TRICKY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE
REGARDING FORECAST HIGHS. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP FOR THE
COMING WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE QUESTION OF "HOW LOW WILL WE GO" DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BY LATE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE WINDS FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 191024
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
324 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL THIS
MORNING NEAR 40N/130W WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW AND THE COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT PLUS WHATEVER MOISTURE IT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME ACTIVE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY LACK WITH THIS LOW THE LONGER IT SITS OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP A BETTER SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AND PUSH IT INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
MEAGER SNOWPACK SOME OF THIS WILL SUBLIMATE WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND PROVIDE AN ALTERNATIVE MOISTURE SOURCE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SET OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CREST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA AND
THUS WE KEPT THE BEST POPS HERE. FURTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT WE GOT ACTIVITY TO GO YESTERDAY, WHAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE THE
OVERDONE WRF WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD. SO, THAT AND THE GFS WERE
LEANED TOWARD FOR TODAY`S POPS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN
AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS THE PLATEAU AREA OF
NORTHERN MOHAVE. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. THE STEERING FLOW
TODAY IS LIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
WHITES TO THOSE RANGES. HOWEVER, A LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD PUSH SOME ACTIVITY OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK CANYON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS WHATEVER WE SEE GO LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP A TOUCH IN SPOTS.

AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD A POSITION WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF SOCAL BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WE CARRIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
NOTED WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME ACTIVITY TOWARD THE OWENS
VALLEY OR SOME OUTFLOW SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED IN HERE. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE IT
REMAINS DRY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OVER THE COAST
OF SOCAL OR THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE
FURTHER INLAND AND ALSO RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY OVER MORE OF
THE AREA SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EACH
COUNTY. I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MTS,
INYO RANGE AND THE PANAMINTS. AGAIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
PRESENT SO SOMETHING COULD DRIFT INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND WE KEPT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE SOMETHING COULD DRIFT OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK OR
THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. TEMPS AGAIN
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WEATHER
SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SLATED TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...KEEPING IT A
WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED OPEN WAVE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE JIST OF
THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS
WELL...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING
STRENGTH AND TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE
LOW WHILE EMITTING A SEPARATE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AS IT SWINGS INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT MUCH WEAKER IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLATTER OPEN TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO POTENTLY GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE
STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES...SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...DUE TO THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEFT OVER THE AREA TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LOOMING OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS TRICKY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE
REGARDING FORECAST HIGHS. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP FOR THE
COMING WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE QUESTION OF "HOW LOW WILL WE GO" DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BY LATE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE WINDS FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 191024
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
324 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL THIS
MORNING NEAR 40N/130W WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW AND THE COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT PLUS WHATEVER MOISTURE IT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME ACTIVE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY LACK WITH THIS LOW THE LONGER IT SITS OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP A BETTER SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AND PUSH IT INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
MEAGER SNOWPACK SOME OF THIS WILL SUBLIMATE WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND PROVIDE AN ALTERNATIVE MOISTURE SOURCE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SET OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CREST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA AND
THUS WE KEPT THE BEST POPS HERE. FURTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT WE GOT ACTIVITY TO GO YESTERDAY, WHAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE THE
OVERDONE WRF WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD. SO, THAT AND THE GFS WERE
LEANED TOWARD FOR TODAY`S POPS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN
AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS THE PLATEAU AREA OF
NORTHERN MOHAVE. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. THE STEERING FLOW
TODAY IS LIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
WHITES TO THOSE RANGES. HOWEVER, A LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD PUSH SOME ACTIVITY OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK CANYON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS WHATEVER WE SEE GO LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP A TOUCH IN SPOTS.

AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD A POSITION WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF SOCAL BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WE CARRIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
NOTED WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME ACTIVITY TOWARD THE OWENS
VALLEY OR SOME OUTFLOW SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED IN HERE. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE IT
REMAINS DRY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OVER THE COAST
OF SOCAL OR THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE
FURTHER INLAND AND ALSO RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY OVER MORE OF
THE AREA SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EACH
COUNTY. I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MTS,
INYO RANGE AND THE PANAMINTS. AGAIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
PRESENT SO SOMETHING COULD DRIFT INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND WE KEPT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE SOMETHING COULD DRIFT OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK OR
THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. TEMPS AGAIN
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WEATHER
SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SLATED TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...KEEPING IT A
WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED OPEN WAVE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE JIST OF
THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS
WELL...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING
STRENGTH AND TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE
LOW WHILE EMITTING A SEPARATE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AS IT SWINGS INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT MUCH WEAKER IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLATTER OPEN TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO POTENTLY GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE
STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES...SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...DUE TO THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEFT OVER THE AREA TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LOOMING OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS TRICKY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE
REGARDING FORECAST HIGHS. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP FOR THE
COMING WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE QUESTION OF "HOW LOW WILL WE GO" DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BY LATE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE WINDS FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 191024 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
324 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL THIS
MORNING NEAR 40N/130W WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW AND THE COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT PLUS WHATEVER MOISTURE IT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME ACTIVE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY LACK WITH THIS LOW THE LONGER IT SITS OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP A BETTER SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AND PUSH IT INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
MEAGER SNOWPACK SOME OF THIS WILL SUBLIMATE WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND PROVIDE AN ALTERNATIVE MOISTURE SOURCE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SET OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CREST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA AND
THUS WE KEPT THE BEST POPS HERE. FURTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT WE GOT ACTIVITY TO GO YESTERDAY, WHAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE THE
OVERDONE WRF WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD. SO, THAT AND THE GFS WERE
LEANED TOWARD FOR TODAY`S POPS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN
AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS THE PLATEAU AREA OF
NORTHERN MOHAVE. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. THE STEERING FLOW
TODAY IS LIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
WHITES TO THOSE RANGES. HOWEVER, A LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD PUSH SOME ACTIVITY OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK CANYON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS WHATEVER WE SEE GO LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP A TOUCH IN SPOTS.

AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD A POSITION WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF SOCAL BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WE CARRIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
NOTED WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME ACTIVITY TOWARD THE OWENS
VALLEY OR SOME OUTFLOW SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED IN HERE. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE IT
REMAINS DRY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OVER THE COAST
OF SOCAL OR THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE
FURTHER INLAND AND ALSO RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY OVER MORE OF
THE AREA SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EACH
COUNTY. I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MTS,
INYO RANGE AND THE PANAMINTS. AGAIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
PRESENT SO SOMETHING COULD DRIFT INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND WE KEPT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE SOMETHING COULD DRIFT OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK OR
THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. TEMPS AGAIN
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WEATHER
SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SLATED TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...KEEPING IT A
WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED OPEN WAVE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE JIST OF
THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS
WELL...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING
STRENGTH AND TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE
LOW WHILE EMITTING A SEPARATE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AS IT SWINGS INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT MUCH WEAKER IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLATTER OPEN TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO POTENTLY GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE
STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES...SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...DUE TO THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEFT OVER THE AREA TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LOOMING OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS TRICKY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE
REGARDING FORECAST HIGHS. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP FOR THE
COMING WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE QUESTION OF "HOW LOW WILL WE GO" DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BY LATE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE WINDS FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 191024 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
324 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL THIS
MORNING NEAR 40N/130W WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW AND THE COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT PLUS WHATEVER MOISTURE IT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME ACTIVE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY LACK WITH THIS LOW THE LONGER IT SITS OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP A BETTER SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AND PUSH IT INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
MEAGER SNOWPACK SOME OF THIS WILL SUBLIMATE WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND PROVIDE AN ALTERNATIVE MOISTURE SOURCE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SET OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CREST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA AND
THUS WE KEPT THE BEST POPS HERE. FURTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT WE GOT ACTIVITY TO GO YESTERDAY, WHAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE THE
OVERDONE WRF WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD. SO, THAT AND THE GFS WERE
LEANED TOWARD FOR TODAY`S POPS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN
AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS THE PLATEAU AREA OF
NORTHERN MOHAVE. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. THE STEERING FLOW
TODAY IS LIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
WHITES TO THOSE RANGES. HOWEVER, A LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD PUSH SOME ACTIVITY OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK CANYON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS WHATEVER WE SEE GO LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP A TOUCH IN SPOTS.

AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD A POSITION WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF SOCAL BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WE CARRIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
NOTED WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME ACTIVITY TOWARD THE OWENS
VALLEY OR SOME OUTFLOW SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED IN HERE. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE IT
REMAINS DRY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OVER THE COAST
OF SOCAL OR THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE
FURTHER INLAND AND ALSO RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY OVER MORE OF
THE AREA SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EACH
COUNTY. I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MTS,
INYO RANGE AND THE PANAMINTS. AGAIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
PRESENT SO SOMETHING COULD DRIFT INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND WE KEPT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE SOMETHING COULD DRIFT OFF THE SPRINGS TOWARD RED ROCK OR
THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. TEMPS AGAIN
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WEATHER
SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SLATED TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...KEEPING IT A
WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED OPEN WAVE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE JIST OF
THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS
WELL...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING
STRENGTH AND TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE
LOW WHILE EMITTING A SEPARATE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AS IT SWINGS INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT MUCH WEAKER IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLATTER OPEN TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO POTENTLY GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE
STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES...SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...DUE TO THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEFT OVER THE AREA TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LOOMING OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS TRICKY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE
REGARDING FORECAST HIGHS. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP FOR THE
COMING WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE QUESTION OF "HOW LOW WILL WE GO" DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BY LATE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE WINDS FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 191003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE COUPLE DAYS, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

TODAY THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 (NEAR THE SIERRA CREST). AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL EXTEND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING ABOVE ABOUT 600 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAP OFF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 NEAR THE CREST, THE GFS, NAM AND SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH COOLER AIR
ALOFT THERE ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN (LIKE
YESTERDAY). ANY CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE MONO AND ALPINE COUNTY
CREST WILL MOVE OFF TO THE WEST DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.

MONDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK
NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE AGAIN. THE GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE BEST
COVERAGE FROM NEAR LAKE TAHOE SOUTH WITH LESSER COVERAGE (ISOLATED)
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, I HAVE KEPT THE RUNNING SCATTERED POP FOR
NOW FOR CONSISTENCY-SAKE AND WILL WAIT ON CONTINUED EVIDENCE TO
LESSEN POP NORTH OF I-80. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD DROP BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND, DUE TO THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND VERY
DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR, GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH OR SO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SITUATION BEGINS TO TURN MORE
DYNAMIC AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY RETREATING OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST LIFT/COOLING ALOFT IN THE DIVERGENT
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL BE OVER THE SIERRA OR
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS COMPARED TO TODAY AND MONDAY. THE ONLY MAJOR
NEGATIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS COULD MAKE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE OVERALL
IDEA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECT TO POSSIBLY SAG AS FAR SOUTH AS BAJA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT FOR SHOWERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN, THERE COULD
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES NO LONGER HAVE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE LOW FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. INSTEAD, THEY HAVE A WEAK OPEN
WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WHILE THE MAIN PART OF THE WAVE
REMAINS IN OREGON. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD NOW AND MORE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AS THE WAVE IS WEAK, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR SOME SHOWERS AT
LEAST FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A DRIER
WEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
(INCREASING UNCERTAINTY) WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NOW. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS AND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF
TAHOE TODAY WITH A 10-20 PCT CHANCE OF THEM IMPACTING KMMH. MONDAY
A BETTER CHANCE FROM LASSEN PEAK SOUTH TO MAMMOTH WITH KMMH/KTVL/KTRK
POSSIBLY AFFECTED. MAIN IMPACTS FROM -TSRA WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
LCL MVFR VIS. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 191003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE COUPLE DAYS, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

TODAY THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 (NEAR THE SIERRA CREST). AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL EXTEND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING ABOVE ABOUT 600 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAP OFF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 NEAR THE CREST, THE GFS, NAM AND SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH COOLER AIR
ALOFT THERE ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN (LIKE
YESTERDAY). ANY CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE MONO AND ALPINE COUNTY
CREST WILL MOVE OFF TO THE WEST DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.

MONDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK
NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE AGAIN. THE GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE BEST
COVERAGE FROM NEAR LAKE TAHOE SOUTH WITH LESSER COVERAGE (ISOLATED)
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, I HAVE KEPT THE RUNNING SCATTERED POP FOR
NOW FOR CONSISTENCY-SAKE AND WILL WAIT ON CONTINUED EVIDENCE TO
LESSEN POP NORTH OF I-80. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD DROP BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND, DUE TO THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND VERY
DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR, GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH OR SO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SITUATION BEGINS TO TURN MORE
DYNAMIC AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY RETREATING OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST LIFT/COOLING ALOFT IN THE DIVERGENT
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL BE OVER THE SIERRA OR
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS COMPARED TO TODAY AND MONDAY. THE ONLY MAJOR
NEGATIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS COULD MAKE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE OVERALL
IDEA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECT TO POSSIBLY SAG AS FAR SOUTH AS BAJA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT FOR SHOWERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN, THERE COULD
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES NO LONGER HAVE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE LOW FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. INSTEAD, THEY HAVE A WEAK OPEN
WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WHILE THE MAIN PART OF THE WAVE
REMAINS IN OREGON. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD NOW AND MORE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AS THE WAVE IS WEAK, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR SOME SHOWERS AT
LEAST FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A DRIER
WEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
(INCREASING UNCERTAINTY) WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NOW. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS AND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF
TAHOE TODAY WITH A 10-20 PCT CHANCE OF THEM IMPACTING KMMH. MONDAY
A BETTER CHANCE FROM LASSEN PEAK SOUTH TO MAMMOTH WITH KMMH/KTVL/KTRK
POSSIBLY AFFECTED. MAIN IMPACTS FROM -TSRA WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
LCL MVFR VIS. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KLKN 190936
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
236 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. WARM SOUTHERLY AIR MAY BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WHICH TRANSLATES EAST INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. MORE ON
THIS IN A MINUTE. FOR SUNDAY EXPECTING DRY AND WARM IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO OCCURRED NEAR THESE AREAS SATURDAY AND COULD OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY. POPS ARE BELOW 14 PERCENT FOR THOSE LOCALES BUT CU COULD
BUILD INTO ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THEIR SOUTHERN BORDERS. RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY FOR MORE DRY AND WARM. ON
TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND ALLOWS SOME MINOR
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION AND HIGHER POPS. WHILE RH WILL BE
LOW...ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT AND ALLOW FOR SOME
BUILDUPS AND THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. A MAJOR CHANGE IN
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT BASIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES BUT
GENERALLY PING INTO THE CONCEPT OF THE RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE WEST
AND BEING REPLACED DIFFLUENT ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS.
THIS STORM HAS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECTING THIS TO BE A
MULTIPLE DAY EVENT WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE 22ND. WITH
THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS BEING SO DRY...THE SHOWERS MAY BE SLOW TO HIT
THE GROUND...23RD AND THE 24TH WILL BE HIGHER QPF DAYS. THE GFS40 IS
PLACING 200 TO 400 J/KG OF SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE OVER LKN THE 22ND
AND 23RD...WHICH HAS A DIURNAL SIGNATURE TO IT. NCEP QPF GUIDANCE
HAS EVENT TOTAL QPF OF ONE INCH OR MORE FROM JACKPOT TO
GABBS...WHICH SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...EXPECT MILD MORNING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR KTPH
AND KELY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT STRAY TOWERING CUMULUS AND SOME
VIRGA.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97




000
FXUS65 KLKN 190936
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
236 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. WARM SOUTHERLY AIR MAY BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WHICH TRANSLATES EAST INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. MORE ON
THIS IN A MINUTE. FOR SUNDAY EXPECTING DRY AND WARM IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO OCCURRED NEAR THESE AREAS SATURDAY AND COULD OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY. POPS ARE BELOW 14 PERCENT FOR THOSE LOCALES BUT CU COULD
BUILD INTO ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THEIR SOUTHERN BORDERS. RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY FOR MORE DRY AND WARM. ON
TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND ALLOWS SOME MINOR
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION AND HIGHER POPS. WHILE RH WILL BE
LOW...ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT AND ALLOW FOR SOME
BUILDUPS AND THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. A MAJOR CHANGE IN
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT BASIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES BUT
GENERALLY PING INTO THE CONCEPT OF THE RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE WEST
AND BEING REPLACED DIFFLUENT ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS.
THIS STORM HAS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECTING THIS TO BE A
MULTIPLE DAY EVENT WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE 22ND. WITH
THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS BEING SO DRY...THE SHOWERS MAY BE SLOW TO HIT
THE GROUND...23RD AND THE 24TH WILL BE HIGHER QPF DAYS. THE GFS40 IS
PLACING 200 TO 400 J/KG OF SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE OVER LKN THE 22ND
AND 23RD...WHICH HAS A DIURNAL SIGNATURE TO IT. NCEP QPF GUIDANCE
HAS EVENT TOTAL QPF OF ONE INCH OR MORE FROM JACKPOT TO
GABBS...WHICH SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...EXPECT MILD MORNING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR KTPH
AND KELY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT STRAY TOWERING CUMULUS AND SOME
VIRGA.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97



000
FXUS65 KVEF 190410
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SURPRISINGLY MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THERE WAS TO WORK WITH. THE WRF ACTUALLY DID
NOT DO ALL THAT BAD ON YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS
PINPOINTING WHICH AREAS WOULD GO WHICH WAS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WE
DID GET A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE
PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IT LIKELY WILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR OUT OVER
MUCH OF INYO COUNTY.

GIVEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY, I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAIN GENERALLY STABLE IN THESE AREAS, THE 00Z WRF SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. GIVEN HOW THE WRF
DID TODAY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT IT. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES
SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED
THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 8
KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND
SIMILAR TO TODAY - LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR
LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z
SUNDAY AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 190410
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SURPRISINGLY MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THERE WAS TO WORK WITH. THE WRF ACTUALLY DID
NOT DO ALL THAT BAD ON YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS
PINPOINTING WHICH AREAS WOULD GO WHICH WAS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WE
DID GET A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE
PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IT LIKELY WILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR OUT OVER
MUCH OF INYO COUNTY.

GIVEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY, I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAIN GENERALLY STABLE IN THESE AREAS, THE 00Z WRF SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. GIVEN HOW THE WRF
DID TODAY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT IT. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES
SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED
THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 8
KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND
SIMILAR TO TODAY - LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR
LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z
SUNDAY AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 190410
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SURPRISINGLY MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THERE WAS TO WORK WITH. THE WRF ACTUALLY DID
NOT DO ALL THAT BAD ON YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS
PINPOINTING WHICH AREAS WOULD GO WHICH WAS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WE
DID GET A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE
PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IT LIKELY WILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR OUT OVER
MUCH OF INYO COUNTY.

GIVEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY, I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAIN GENERALLY STABLE IN THESE AREAS, THE 00Z WRF SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. GIVEN HOW THE WRF
DID TODAY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT IT. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES
SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED
THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 8
KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND
SIMILAR TO TODAY - LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR
LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z
SUNDAY AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 190410
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SURPRISINGLY MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THERE WAS TO WORK WITH. THE WRF ACTUALLY DID
NOT DO ALL THAT BAD ON YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS
PINPOINTING WHICH AREAS WOULD GO WHICH WAS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WE
DID GET A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE
PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IT LIKELY WILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR OUT OVER
MUCH OF INYO COUNTY.

GIVEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY, I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAIN GENERALLY STABLE IN THESE AREAS, THE 00Z WRF SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. GIVEN HOW THE WRF
DID TODAY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT IT. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES
SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED
THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 8
KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND
SIMILAR TO TODAY - LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR
LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z
SUNDAY AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 190410
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SURPRISINGLY MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THERE WAS TO WORK WITH. THE WRF ACTUALLY DID
NOT DO ALL THAT BAD ON YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS
PINPOINTING WHICH AREAS WOULD GO WHICH WAS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WE
DID GET A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE
PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IT LIKELY WILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR OUT OVER
MUCH OF INYO COUNTY.

GIVEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY, I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAIN GENERALLY STABLE IN THESE AREAS, THE 00Z WRF SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. GIVEN HOW THE WRF
DID TODAY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT IT. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES
SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED
THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 8
KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND
SIMILAR TO TODAY - LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR
LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z
SUNDAY AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 190410
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SURPRISINGLY MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THERE WAS TO WORK WITH. THE WRF ACTUALLY DID
NOT DO ALL THAT BAD ON YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS
PINPOINTING WHICH AREAS WOULD GO WHICH WAS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WE
DID GET A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE
PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IT LIKELY WILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR OUT OVER
MUCH OF INYO COUNTY.

GIVEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY, I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAIN GENERALLY STABLE IN THESE AREAS, THE 00Z WRF SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. GIVEN HOW THE WRF
DID TODAY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT IT. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES
SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED
THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 8
KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND
SIMILAR TO TODAY - LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 8 KTS OR
LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BETWEEN 21Z
SUNDAY AND 03Z MONDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 190027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
527 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NRN AND NE LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF NRN WASHOE COUNTY.
A WEAK AREA OF PV ADVECTION ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND IS
HELPING DEVELOP A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. LOW LVL FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS.
THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND POINTS WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS PV ADVECTION AREA MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LITTLE CONVECTION GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING SO WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS IF WE NEED TO EXTENDED POPS TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 190027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
527 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NRN AND NE LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF NRN WASHOE COUNTY.
A WEAK AREA OF PV ADVECTION ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND IS
HELPING DEVELOP A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. LOW LVL FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS.
THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND POINTS WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS PV ADVECTION AREA MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LITTLE CONVECTION GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING SO WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS IF WE NEED TO EXTENDED POPS TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 190027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
527 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NRN AND NE LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF NRN WASHOE COUNTY.
A WEAK AREA OF PV ADVECTION ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND IS
HELPING DEVELOP A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. LOW LVL FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS.
THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND POINTS WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS PV ADVECTION AREA MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LITTLE CONVECTION GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING SO WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS IF WE NEED TO EXTENDED POPS TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 190027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
527 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NRN AND NE LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF NRN WASHOE COUNTY.
A WEAK AREA OF PV ADVECTION ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND IS
HELPING DEVELOP A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. LOW LVL FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS.
THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND POINTS WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS PV ADVECTION AREA MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LITTLE CONVECTION GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING SO WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS IF WE NEED TO EXTENDED POPS TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 190027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
527 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NRN AND NE LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF NRN WASHOE COUNTY.
A WEAK AREA OF PV ADVECTION ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND IS
HELPING DEVELOP A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. LOW LVL FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS.
THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND POINTS WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS PV ADVECTION AREA MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LITTLE CONVECTION GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING SO WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS IF WE NEED TO EXTENDED POPS TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 190027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
527 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NRN AND NE LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF NRN WASHOE COUNTY.
A WEAK AREA OF PV ADVECTION ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND IS
HELPING DEVELOP A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. LOW LVL FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS.
THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND POINTS WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS PV ADVECTION AREA MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LITTLE CONVECTION GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING SO WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS IF WE NEED TO EXTENDED POPS TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 182141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 182141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 182141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 182141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 182141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 182141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO, BEING ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD
NOT SURPRISE THAT WE`RE ALSO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SEEING PATTERNS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUS AFTER SEEING HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY (RNO 5% FRIDAY), AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MOST WELCOME! FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY IS MEDIUM, WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES BEING SUBTLE AND LESS PREDICTABLE FEATURES LIKE
SHORTWAVES AND CLOUD COVER THAT COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

12Z REV SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
CORRESPONDINGLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD
ALSO HELP IN TSTM INITIATION THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA GIVEN IT`S
APPROACH AROUND 0-3Z. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. 3-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT BUT
EASTERLY SO MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST
WOULD TEND TO FLOAT WEST OUT OF OUR AREA SOON THEREAFTER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER BIGGER PARTS OF OUR CWA. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENTS IN PLAY, BUT GFS/SREF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN IN FAR WRN NV WITH
LIGHT/NO STEERING FLOW. ON TUESDAY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS BUT THERE`S MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THESE TSTMS, DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT THE USUAL IMPACTS OF
LIGHTNING, +RA, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING THE
CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME DEFORMATION FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER AND EXPECT THIS DAY TO BE
OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS DAY BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LESS SURFACE HEATING. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BELOW 8,000 FEET
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE GREATER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE EC
BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS
TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUBSTANTIAL BY THIS
TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW END IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
OVERALL SEASONABLE. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S IN THE SIERRA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KMMH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 21-03Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FUENTES


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KVEF 182130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT UPPER-AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...AND ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BEING UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY PROVIDED SUNNY SKIES...A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES...AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON YET WOULD TEND TO FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND OR 8 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND SIMILAR TO
TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT EASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING /GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KNOTS/.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 182130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT UPPER-AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...AND ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BEING UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY PROVIDED SUNNY SKIES...A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES...AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON YET WOULD TEND TO FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND OR 8 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND SIMILAR TO
TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT EASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING /GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KNOTS/.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 182130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT UPPER-AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...AND ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BEING UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY PROVIDED SUNNY SKIES...A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES...AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON YET WOULD TEND TO FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND OR 8 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND SIMILAR TO
TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT EASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING /GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KNOTS/.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 182130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT UPPER-AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...AND ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BEING UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY PROVIDED SUNNY SKIES...A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES...AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ONLY SOME CAPPED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS
TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

FOR TUESDAY...THIS WEAK LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION WILL WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE OVER OUR
AREA...PROVIDING EVEN BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE CHANCES SPREAD TO OTHER SOUTHERN
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW
OFF BAJA AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD A BIT MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
THEN WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE TEMPERATURES
WOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL IF THE GFS VERIFIES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON YET WOULD TEND TO FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND OR 8 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD TREND SIMILAR TO
TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID MORNING THEN FAVOR LIGHT EASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING /GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KNOTS/.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEST WINDS AT KDAG. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN
250 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 182104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES INLAND ON TUESDAY INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES OVER THE CWA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INITIALLY LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES AND WITH 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENCE
COUPLET...HIGH BASED LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEVADA APPEARS TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED, WHICH
CAN BE NOTHING BUT GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN GREAT
BASIN.

WEDNESDAY...558-559 DM UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO,
WITH DIVERGENT FLOW AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES SPREADING WELL
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NEVADA. GFS FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -3 FOR
ALL ZONES, AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNATURES. 12Z ECMWF MUCH
THE SAME, SO NUDGED UP POPS A BIT MORE AND MENTIONED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDER. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...12Z ECMWF EJECTS UPPER LOW TO NEAR PHOENIX, WITH THE 12Z
GFS PLACING ITS LOW NEAR THE GRAND CANYON BY 5 PM. EITHER WAY,
DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS LOW`S TRACK, ALONG WITH AGAIN WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2) SPELLS ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA, RUBY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS SE, WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. AGAIN INCREASED POPS USING
12Z MRA GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS MILD AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

STARTING FRIDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. 12Z ECMWF REPLACES WEAK
FLOW WITH A STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 5 PM FRIDAY, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS A 552 DM UPPER LOW SOUTH OF TONOPAH NEXT
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE WET FOR NEVADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH, BUT IS MUCH, MUCH SLOWER
WITH IT, NOT ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL TUESDAY APRIL 28TH.
GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW, SO LEANED LONG RANGE GRIDS TOWARD ECMWF, WHICH
IMPLIES A WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX NEXT SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SCT CIRRUS. CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM KEKO TO
KELY TO KTPH. N/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AT
SUNSET, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 182104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES INLAND ON TUESDAY INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES OVER THE CWA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INITIALLY LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES AND WITH 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENCE
COUPLET...HIGH BASED LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEVADA APPEARS TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED, WHICH
CAN BE NOTHING BUT GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN GREAT
BASIN.

WEDNESDAY...558-559 DM UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO,
WITH DIVERGENT FLOW AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES SPREADING WELL
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NEVADA. GFS FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -3 FOR
ALL ZONES, AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNATURES. 12Z ECMWF MUCH
THE SAME, SO NUDGED UP POPS A BIT MORE AND MENTIONED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDER. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...12Z ECMWF EJECTS UPPER LOW TO NEAR PHOENIX, WITH THE 12Z
GFS PLACING ITS LOW NEAR THE GRAND CANYON BY 5 PM. EITHER WAY,
DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS LOW`S TRACK, ALONG WITH AGAIN WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2) SPELLS ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA, RUBY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS SE, WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. AGAIN INCREASED POPS USING
12Z MRA GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS MILD AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

STARTING FRIDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. 12Z ECMWF REPLACES WEAK
FLOW WITH A STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 5 PM FRIDAY, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS A 552 DM UPPER LOW SOUTH OF TONOPAH NEXT
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE WET FOR NEVADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH, BUT IS MUCH, MUCH SLOWER
WITH IT, NOT ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL TUESDAY APRIL 28TH.
GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW, SO LEANED LONG RANGE GRIDS TOWARD ECMWF, WHICH
IMPLIES A WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX NEXT SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SCT CIRRUS. CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM KEKO TO
KELY TO KTPH. N/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AT
SUNSET, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 182104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES INLAND ON TUESDAY INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES OVER THE CWA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INITIALLY LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES AND WITH 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENCE
COUPLET...HIGH BASED LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEVADA APPEARS TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED, WHICH
CAN BE NOTHING BUT GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN GREAT
BASIN.

WEDNESDAY...558-559 DM UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO,
WITH DIVERGENT FLOW AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES SPREADING WELL
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NEVADA. GFS FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -3 FOR
ALL ZONES, AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNATURES. 12Z ECMWF MUCH
THE SAME, SO NUDGED UP POPS A BIT MORE AND MENTIONED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDER. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...12Z ECMWF EJECTS UPPER LOW TO NEAR PHOENIX, WITH THE 12Z
GFS PLACING ITS LOW NEAR THE GRAND CANYON BY 5 PM. EITHER WAY,
DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS LOW`S TRACK, ALONG WITH AGAIN WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2) SPELLS ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA, RUBY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS SE, WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. AGAIN INCREASED POPS USING
12Z MRA GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS MILD AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

STARTING FRIDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. 12Z ECMWF REPLACES WEAK
FLOW WITH A STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 5 PM FRIDAY, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS A 552 DM UPPER LOW SOUTH OF TONOPAH NEXT
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE WET FOR NEVADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH, BUT IS MUCH, MUCH SLOWER
WITH IT, NOT ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL TUESDAY APRIL 28TH.
GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW, SO LEANED LONG RANGE GRIDS TOWARD ECMWF, WHICH
IMPLIES A WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX NEXT SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SCT CIRRUS. CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM KEKO TO
KELY TO KTPH. N/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AT
SUNSET, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 182104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES INLAND ON TUESDAY INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES OVER THE CWA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INITIALLY LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES AND WITH 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENCE
COUPLET...HIGH BASED LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEVADA APPEARS TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED, WHICH
CAN BE NOTHING BUT GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN GREAT
BASIN.

WEDNESDAY...558-559 DM UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO,
WITH DIVERGENT FLOW AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES SPREADING WELL
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NEVADA. GFS FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -3 FOR
ALL ZONES, AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNATURES. 12Z ECMWF MUCH
THE SAME, SO NUDGED UP POPS A BIT MORE AND MENTIONED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDER. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...12Z ECMWF EJECTS UPPER LOW TO NEAR PHOENIX, WITH THE 12Z
GFS PLACING ITS LOW NEAR THE GRAND CANYON BY 5 PM. EITHER WAY,
DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS LOW`S TRACK, ALONG WITH AGAIN WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2) SPELLS ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA, RUBY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS SE, WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. AGAIN INCREASED POPS USING
12Z MRA GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS MILD AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

STARTING FRIDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. 12Z ECMWF REPLACES WEAK
FLOW WITH A STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 5 PM FRIDAY, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS A 552 DM UPPER LOW SOUTH OF TONOPAH NEXT
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE WET FOR NEVADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH, BUT IS MUCH, MUCH SLOWER
WITH IT, NOT ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL TUESDAY APRIL 28TH.
GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW, SO LEANED LONG RANGE GRIDS TOWARD ECMWF, WHICH
IMPLIES A WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX NEXT SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SCT CIRRUS. CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM KEKO TO
KELY TO KTPH. N/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AT
SUNSET, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99




000
FXUS65 KVEF 181630
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERTAURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&


.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. MINOR EDITS TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS. EXPECTING THE REGION TO
WARM NICELY TODAY...AS AREA-WIDE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 4-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
303 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS TODAY AS THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND A
SECOND WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON. ACROSS OUR AREA A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED TO BE
IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. BOTH THE WRF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND FAIRLY STABLE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ON THE GFS THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND AT BEST IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY CAPPED AND ALL WE SHOULD GET ARE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH PLACED THEM IN-LINE
WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
TOMORROW AND BE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL AND THEN DROP
FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY TO WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WHATEVER MOISTURE IT HAS TO TAP
PLUS MOISTURE FROM ANY SNOWPACK THAT MELTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA LOOKS BETTER ON THE WEST SLOPES
AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE CREST. THE PROSPECTS
ALSO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON MONDAY AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT
GETS CLOSER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE
NOT AS GREAT, HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS SHOULD BLOSSOM IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP RANGE, LINCOLN COUNTY,
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE PLATEAU AREA OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET A FEW SPRINKLES IN ONE OF THESE AREAS BUT
FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS ESPECIALLY THE
WRF LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE QPF IT GENERATES. WHILE THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY, THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB SO VERY LITTLE
PRECIP WILL SURVIVE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONE THING WORTH WATCHING
WILL BE THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE CONS MODELS WERE
USED FOR FORECAST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
FORESSEABLE FUTURE. TUESDAY...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE GOOD TONIGHT IN BRINGING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEING WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THE ECMWF COMING IN SLOWER/STRONGER. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING OUR
ATTENTION TO TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL THRID SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR GRID CHANGES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS
SYSTEM HAVING SUFFIECIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM SEASONAL NORMALS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE COOLEST DAYS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT
THE TIME WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY (060-120) UP-VALLEY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW 8KTS AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES. KDAG COULD
SEE SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING UP TO 15KTS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN 250 CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 181630
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERTAURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&


.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. MINOR EDITS TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS. EXPECTING THE REGION TO
WARM NICELY TODAY...AS AREA-WIDE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 4-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
303 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS TODAY AS THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND A
SECOND WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON. ACROSS OUR AREA A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED TO BE
IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. BOTH THE WRF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND FAIRLY STABLE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ON THE GFS THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND AT BEST IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY CAPPED AND ALL WE SHOULD GET ARE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH PLACED THEM IN-LINE
WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
TOMORROW AND BE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL AND THEN DROP
FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY TO WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WHATEVER MOISTURE IT HAS TO TAP
PLUS MOISTURE FROM ANY SNOWPACK THAT MELTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA LOOKS BETTER ON THE WEST SLOPES
AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE CREST. THE PROSPECTS
ALSO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON MONDAY AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT
GETS CLOSER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE
NOT AS GREAT, HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS SHOULD BLOSSOM IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP RANGE, LINCOLN COUNTY,
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE PLATEAU AREA OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET A FEW SPRINKLES IN ONE OF THESE AREAS BUT
FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS ESPECIALLY THE
WRF LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE QPF IT GENERATES. WHILE THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY, THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB SO VERY LITTLE
PRECIP WILL SURVIVE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONE THING WORTH WATCHING
WILL BE THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE CONS MODELS WERE
USED FOR FORECAST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
FORESSEABLE FUTURE. TUESDAY...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE GOOD TONIGHT IN BRINGING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEING WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THE ECMWF COMING IN SLOWER/STRONGER. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING OUR
ATTENTION TO TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL THRID SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR GRID CHANGES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS
SYSTEM HAVING SUFFIECIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM SEASONAL NORMALS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE COOLEST DAYS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT
THE TIME WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY (060-120) UP-VALLEY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW 8KTS AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES. KDAG COULD
SEE SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING UP TO 15KTS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN 250 CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 181630
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERTAURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&


.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. MINOR EDITS TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS. EXPECTING THE REGION TO
WARM NICELY TODAY...AS AREA-WIDE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 4-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
303 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS TODAY AS THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND A
SECOND WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON. ACROSS OUR AREA A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED TO BE
IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. BOTH THE WRF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND FAIRLY STABLE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ON THE GFS THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND AT BEST IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY CAPPED AND ALL WE SHOULD GET ARE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH PLACED THEM IN-LINE
WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
TOMORROW AND BE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL AND THEN DROP
FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY TO WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WHATEVER MOISTURE IT HAS TO TAP
PLUS MOISTURE FROM ANY SNOWPACK THAT MELTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA LOOKS BETTER ON THE WEST SLOPES
AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE CREST. THE PROSPECTS
ALSO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON MONDAY AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT
GETS CLOSER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE
NOT AS GREAT, HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS SHOULD BLOSSOM IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP RANGE, LINCOLN COUNTY,
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE PLATEAU AREA OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET A FEW SPRINKLES IN ONE OF THESE AREAS BUT
FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS ESPECIALLY THE
WRF LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE QPF IT GENERATES. WHILE THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY, THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB SO VERY LITTLE
PRECIP WILL SURVIVE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONE THING WORTH WATCHING
WILL BE THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE CONS MODELS WERE
USED FOR FORECAST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
FORESSEABLE FUTURE. TUESDAY...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE GOOD TONIGHT IN BRINGING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEING WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THE ECMWF COMING IN SLOWER/STRONGER. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING OUR
ATTENTION TO TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL THRID SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR GRID CHANGES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS
SYSTEM HAVING SUFFIECIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM SEASONAL NORMALS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE COOLEST DAYS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT
THE TIME WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY (060-120) UP-VALLEY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW 8KTS AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES. KDAG COULD
SEE SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING UP TO 15KTS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN 250 CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 181630
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERTAURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&


.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. MINOR EDITS TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS. EXPECTING THE REGION TO
WARM NICELY TODAY...AS AREA-WIDE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 4-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
303 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS TODAY AS THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND A
SECOND WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON. ACROSS OUR AREA A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED TO BE
IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. BOTH THE WRF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND FAIRLY STABLE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ON THE GFS THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND AT BEST IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY CAPPED AND ALL WE SHOULD GET ARE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH PLACED THEM IN-LINE
WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
TOMORROW AND BE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL AND THEN DROP
FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY TO WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WHATEVER MOISTURE IT HAS TO TAP
PLUS MOISTURE FROM ANY SNOWPACK THAT MELTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA LOOKS BETTER ON THE WEST SLOPES
AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE CREST. THE PROSPECTS
ALSO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON MONDAY AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT
GETS CLOSER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE
NOT AS GREAT, HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS SHOULD BLOSSOM IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP RANGE, LINCOLN COUNTY,
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE PLATEAU AREA OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET A FEW SPRINKLES IN ONE OF THESE AREAS BUT
FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS ESPECIALLY THE
WRF LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE QPF IT GENERATES. WHILE THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY, THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB SO VERY LITTLE
PRECIP WILL SURVIVE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONE THING WORTH WATCHING
WILL BE THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE CONS MODELS WERE
USED FOR FORECAST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
FORESSEABLE FUTURE. TUESDAY...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE GOOD TONIGHT IN BRINGING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEING WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THE ECMWF COMING IN SLOWER/STRONGER. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING OUR
ATTENTION TO TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL THRID SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR GRID CHANGES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS
SYSTEM HAVING SUFFIECIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM SEASONAL NORMALS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE COOLEST DAYS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT
THE TIME WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY (060-120) UP-VALLEY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW 8KTS AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES. KDAG COULD
SEE SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING UP TO 15KTS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN 250 CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 181009
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
MORNING`S ISSUANCE. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AXIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF MID-LEVEL COOLING BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED IN
BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
HRRR NOW SHOWS SIGNS OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCOMING COOLING/DE-STABILIZATION ALOFT AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, I WOULD SUSPECT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST. THE SREF
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY, SO I
HAVE THROWN IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FROM RIGHT NEAR THE CREST AND
FOR AREAS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. THIS IS DUE TO LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CREST.

ON MONDAY THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DROP OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER OREGON. THIS WILL SET UP
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS MAY ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MAY MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPING THE NEXT UPPER LOW AS AN UPPER WAVE
THAT BRUSHES THE NORTH. THE EC IS SLOWER WITH ANOTHER WAVE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE EC SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION.

TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS AS IT WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AND LIKELY HAVE THE MOST SUN AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STORMS TO START NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO WESTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA. HOWEVER,
MORE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY,
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA WITH MORE SHOWERS. FRIDAY, THE EC
SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL WED, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

TEMPS WILL START ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THEN FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WED-FRI. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
EITHER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. AS FAR
AS PRECIP AMOUNTS, SINCE IT WILL BE SHOWERY IT IS VERY HARD TO PIN
DOWN, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS/STORMS KEEP HITTING THE SAME AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL, BUT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS
ABOVE 8000 FEET. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST 21-03Z TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 181009
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
MORNING`S ISSUANCE. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AXIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF MID-LEVEL COOLING BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED IN
BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
HRRR NOW SHOWS SIGNS OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCOMING COOLING/DE-STABILIZATION ALOFT AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, I WOULD SUSPECT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST. THE SREF
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY, SO I
HAVE THROWN IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FROM RIGHT NEAR THE CREST AND
FOR AREAS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. THIS IS DUE TO LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CREST.

ON MONDAY THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DROP OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER OREGON. THIS WILL SET UP
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS MAY ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MAY MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPING THE NEXT UPPER LOW AS AN UPPER WAVE
THAT BRUSHES THE NORTH. THE EC IS SLOWER WITH ANOTHER WAVE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE EC SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION.

TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS AS IT WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AND LIKELY HAVE THE MOST SUN AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STORMS TO START NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO WESTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA. HOWEVER,
MORE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY,
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA WITH MORE SHOWERS. FRIDAY, THE EC
SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL WED, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

TEMPS WILL START ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THEN FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WED-FRI. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
EITHER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. AS FAR
AS PRECIP AMOUNTS, SINCE IT WILL BE SHOWERY IT IS VERY HARD TO PIN
DOWN, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS/STORMS KEEP HITTING THE SAME AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL, BUT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS
ABOVE 8000 FEET. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST 21-03Z TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 181003
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
303 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERTAURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS TODAY AS THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND A
SECOND WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON. ACROSS OUR AREA A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED TO BE
IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. BOTH THE WRF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND FAIRLY STABLE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ON THE GFS THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND AT BEST IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY CAPPED AND ALL WE SHOULD GET ARE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH PLACED THEM IN-LINE
WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
TOMORROW AND BE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL AND THEN DROP
FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY TO WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WHATEVER MOISTURE IT HAS TO TAP
PLUS MOISTURE FROM ANY SNOWPACK THAT MELTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA LOOKS BETTER ON THE WEST SLOPES
AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE CREST. THE PROSPECTS
ALSO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON MONDAY AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT
GETS CLOSER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE
NOT AS GREAT, HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS SHOULD BLOSSOM IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP RANGE, LINCOLN COUNTY,
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE PLATEAU AREA OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET A FEW SPRINKLES IN ONE OF THESE AREAS BUT
FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS ESPECIALLY THE
WRF LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE QPF IT GENERATES. WHILE THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY, THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB SO VERY LITTLE
PRECIP WILL SURVIVE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONE THING WORTH WATCHING
WILL BE THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE CONS MODELS WERE
USED FOR FORECAST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
FORESSEABLE FUTURE. TUESDAY...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE GOOD TONIGHT IN BRINGING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEING WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THE ECMWF COMING IN SLOWER/STRONGER. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING OUR
ATTENTION TO TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL THRID SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR GRID CHANGES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS
SYSTEM HAVING SUFFIECIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM SEASONAL NORMALS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE COOLEST DAYS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT
THE TIME WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY (060-120) UP-VALLEY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW 8KTS AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES. KDAG COULD
SEE SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING UP TO 15KTS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN 250 CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 180938
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
238 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
DEVELOPING A SHORT RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURIOUS
LITTLE UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FOR A MINI-
BLOCKING PATTERN. RESULT IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A COMPLETE LACK OF DEEP RH. THE MODELS HINT AT SOME
PRECIP ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RH/OMEGA/DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE
FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY. LEFT POPS AT ZERO. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS
MAYBE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER OFFSHORE SOCAL AND DESERT HEAT
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA...EXPECT WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY TO BECOME GUSTY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST.
ALL THE WHILE...LOOMING UPSTREAM...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
BREWING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE WHOLESALE
CHANGE IN PATTERN. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. GENERALLY EXPECTING AN
ORGANIZED LOW TO UNDER CUT THE CANADIAN RIDGE IMPACTING THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST....THE 22ND..23RD...AND 24TH. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDED TS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAS THE PNA PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL WITH ITS LATEST
RUN. WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ERODING THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS KWMC...KEKO...KELY...
AND KTPH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97




000
FXUS65 KLKN 180938
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
238 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
DEVELOPING A SHORT RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURIOUS
LITTLE UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FOR A MINI-
BLOCKING PATTERN. RESULT IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A COMPLETE LACK OF DEEP RH. THE MODELS HINT AT SOME
PRECIP ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RH/OMEGA/DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE
FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY. LEFT POPS AT ZERO. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS
MAYBE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER OFFSHORE SOCAL AND DESERT HEAT
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA...EXPECT WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY TO BECOME GUSTY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST.
ALL THE WHILE...LOOMING UPSTREAM...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
BREWING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE WHOLESALE
CHANGE IN PATTERN. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. GENERALLY EXPECTING AN
ORGANIZED LOW TO UNDER CUT THE CANADIAN RIDGE IMPACTING THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST....THE 22ND..23RD...AND 24TH. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDED TS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAS THE PNA PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL WITH ITS LATEST
RUN. WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ERODING THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS KWMC...KEKO...KELY...
AND KTPH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97



000
FXUS65 KLKN 180938
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
238 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
DEVELOPING A SHORT RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURIOUS
LITTLE UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FOR A MINI-
BLOCKING PATTERN. RESULT IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A COMPLETE LACK OF DEEP RH. THE MODELS HINT AT SOME
PRECIP ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RH/OMEGA/DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE
FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY. LEFT POPS AT ZERO. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS
MAYBE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER OFFSHORE SOCAL AND DESERT HEAT
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA...EXPECT WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY TO BECOME GUSTY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST.
ALL THE WHILE...LOOMING UPSTREAM...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
BREWING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE WHOLESALE
CHANGE IN PATTERN. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. GENERALLY EXPECTING AN
ORGANIZED LOW TO UNDER CUT THE CANADIAN RIDGE IMPACTING THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST....THE 22ND..23RD...AND 24TH. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDED TS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAS THE PNA PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL WITH ITS LATEST
RUN. WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ERODING THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS KWMC...KEKO...KELY...
AND KTPH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97




000
FXUS65 KLKN 180938
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
238 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
DEVELOPING A SHORT RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURIOUS
LITTLE UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FOR A MINI-
BLOCKING PATTERN. RESULT IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A COMPLETE LACK OF DEEP RH. THE MODELS HINT AT SOME
PRECIP ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RH/OMEGA/DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE
FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY. LEFT POPS AT ZERO. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS
MAYBE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER OFFSHORE SOCAL AND DESERT HEAT
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA...EXPECT WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY TO BECOME GUSTY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST.
ALL THE WHILE...LOOMING UPSTREAM...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
BREWING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE WHOLESALE
CHANGE IN PATTERN. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. GENERALLY EXPECTING AN
ORGANIZED LOW TO UNDER CUT THE CANADIAN RIDGE IMPACTING THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST....THE 22ND..23RD...AND 24TH. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDED TS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAS THE PNA PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL WITH ITS LATEST
RUN. WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ERODING THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS KWMC...KEKO...KELY...
AND KTPH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97



000
FXUS65 KVEF 180450
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER TO 5500 FEET.
&&

.UPDATE...CLOUDS STILL LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS EVENING NEAR PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT COURTESY OF MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGERING LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.
THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND NEEDS NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7-12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
GOING UPVALLEY OR EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ALL SITES REVERTING BACK TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THERE ARE
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES BUT MODELS DO INDICATE THE AIR MASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST
OF INYO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PARAMETERS LOOK TOO
WEAK. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER. THE INSTABILITY SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH MONDAY FOR NO MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY BEYOND. AN INITIAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE SOLUTION SO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE LOWERS DUE TO GREAT MODEL SPREAD BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
A THIRD WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 5500
AND 6000 FEET. BOTTOM LINE...PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOMETHING WE DID NOT SEE MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO NORMAL OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 180450
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER TO 5500 FEET.
&&

.UPDATE...CLOUDS STILL LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS EVENING NEAR PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT COURTESY OF MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGERING LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.
THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND NEEDS NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7-12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
GOING UPVALLEY OR EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ALL SITES REVERTING BACK TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THERE ARE
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES BUT MODELS DO INDICATE THE AIR MASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST
OF INYO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PARAMETERS LOOK TOO
WEAK. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER. THE INSTABILITY SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH MONDAY FOR NO MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY BEYOND. AN INITIAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE SOLUTION SO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE LOWERS DUE TO GREAT MODEL SPREAD BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
A THIRD WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 5500
AND 6000 FEET. BOTTOM LINE...PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOMETHING WE DID NOT SEE MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO NORMAL OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 180450
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER TO 5500 FEET.
&&

.UPDATE...CLOUDS STILL LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS EVENING NEAR PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT COURTESY OF MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGERING LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.
THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND NEEDS NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7-12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
GOING UPVALLEY OR EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ALL SITES REVERTING BACK TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THERE ARE
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES BUT MODELS DO INDICATE THE AIR MASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST
OF INYO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PARAMETERS LOOK TOO
WEAK. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER. THE INSTABILITY SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH MONDAY FOR NO MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY BEYOND. AN INITIAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE SOLUTION SO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE LOWERS DUE TO GREAT MODEL SPREAD BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
A THIRD WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 5500
AND 6000 FEET. BOTTOM LINE...PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOMETHING WE DID NOT SEE MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO NORMAL OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 172133
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS ARE
EXPECT TO NEAR FREEZING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME SURFACE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
IT...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...BUT
IT WILL NOT LAST. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC ON TUESDAY AND DIG OVER CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY INTO NEVADA ON THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH POINT ITS FATE
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. EURO PUSHES IT EAST FRIDAY WHILE GFS DIGS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE TROUGH AND KEEPS IT AROUND.
EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER WILL COOL DOWN...BECOME CLOUDIER AND MORE
SHOWERY...AND PERHAPS THUNDERY AND EVEN SNOWY. SHOWERS WILL START
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW
LEVELS STARTING TO DROP. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN JUST HOW LOW THEY
MIGHT GET HOWEVER...WITH THE EURO KEEPING THEM ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS WHILE THE GFS DROPS THEM TO THE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
INSOLATION ON PAR WITH LATE AUGUST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SYSTEM AS LI`S GO NEGATIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST (MAINLY BELOW 30 KNOTS)
WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/93/93




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