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000
FXUS65 KVEF 250326
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
825 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures will continue through
Monday as high pressure builds over the area. Monsoon moisture will
start to seep in from the southeast early next week, bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but
more humid conditions, especially for areas south and east of Las
Vegas.
&&

.UPDATE...An extensive smoke plume could be seen spreading across
western San Bernardio county this evening from the Erskine Fire near
Lake Isabella, CA. Satellite trends indicate that much of wetsern
and central San Bernardino county will see areas of smoke overnight
through Saturday morning and the WX grids were updated to reflect
this.

A push of light to moderate northeast to southeast winds below 700
mb over southern Nevada early Saturday morning should keep the
majority of the smoke confined to areas southwest of the NV/CA
border...but cannot rule out some minor infiltration into parts of
Clark county overnight.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday Night.

Areas of smoke filled the Las Vegas Valley early this morning and
light winds throughout the day has kept much of the smoke trapped in
the valley. Things have improved somewhat over the past couple of
hours and we should start to clear out a little more early this
evening as southwest winds start to increase. Smoke from the Erskine
Fire near Lake Isabells is evident on visible satellite imagery and
it looks like much of the smoke is currently blowing to the south.
Its unlikely that we will see additional smoke on Saturday like we
had today because the 850-700mb flow is more out of the southeast
which should keep the smoke well west of southern Nevada.

High pressure is expected to build back over the region this weekend
allowing temperatures to start another climb upward. Right now it
looks like temperatures should stay low enough not to have any
excessive heat warnings, but it will still be a hot weekend. Very
little in the way of clouds will be seen through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday

An inverted trough will be moving across southwest Arizona and into
southern California on Monday morning. The trough combined with the
ridge of high pressure that will be moving to the east will help to
increase moisture into eastern San Bernardino and southern Mohave
Counties during the day on Monday and should be enough to initiate
isolated activity over the higher terrain of Mohave County. The
southeasterly flow around the ridge will continue on Tuesday with
isolated thunderstorms possible in much of southern Nevada and
eastern San Bernardino County with scattered coverage in Mohave
County. There is good model agreement that a more substantial push
of moisture will occur on Wednesday, with the 1 inch PW line pushing
well into Clark County and the 1.5 inch line nearing Lake Havasu
City. At this point Wednesday looks to be the most active convective
day of the period. Some drying will occur beginning on Thursday
across the western half of our forecast area, but moisture will
remain in place across eastern Nevada and northwest Arizona with
isolated to scattered afternoon convection expected.

As far as the temperatures are concerned, Monday should be the
hottest day of the period. When temperatures will be close to
excessive heat criteria in some of the desert locations, but at this
point expected to remain below the criteria. The increasing moisture
and decreasing heights will help to provide a few degrees of cooling
for the remainder of the week, but temperatures will continue to
remain solidly above the seasonal normals.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...
Areas of smoke will be seen into this evening, but visibility is not
expected to lower less than 10sm. As southwest winds increase early
this evening the smoke is expected to clear somewhat overnight. A
weak boundary is forecast to move through southern Nevada after 14z
Saturday with northeast winds around 10 kts developing through 18z
then shifting more easterly around 10 kts in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Areas of smoke this evening across portions of Clark
and San Bernardino Counties, otherwise clear skies will prevail.
Gusty west winds across western San Bernardino County this evening
with other areas seeing wind speeds less than 10 kts. Most of the
area will see Northeast to East winds Saturday with speeds around 10-
15 kts. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Update...Adair
Short Term/Aviation...Gorelow Long
Term...Czyzyk

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter



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000
FXUS65 KLKN 242246
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
346 PM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cold front brings cool dry weather tonight across
the region. High pressure strengthens over the Great Basin on
Sunday with hot weather returning next week.  Dry thunderstorms
may develop by next Wednesday and Thursday as moisture increases
from the desert southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.
Shallow cold front has pulled up stationary across the central
Nevada, or quasi parallel to highway 50. Afternoon temps running
about 6-8 degrees cooler than Thursday with breezy conditions in
the 15-25 mph range. Trough that pushed cold front into Nevada
will be moving across Montana tonight. Once winds decouple this
evening, temps will fall quickly overnight with lower 40s across
many valleys. Some of the northern and mountain valleys may dip
into mid 30s...perhaps pockets of lower 30s is quite possible
tonight.

Quite tranquil on Saturday with weak divergent westerly flow aloft
and weak gradient surface flow. Afternoon temps will be similar to
today given the cool morning start. These conditions will not last
very long as high pressure strengthens over the intermountain
West. Air mass turns warmer on Sunday by 7 to 10 degrees...90s
will be common in the valleys.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday.

Ridge over the southwestern US will keep high temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s in most valley locations next week...with 100
possible in a few of the lower elevation areas such as Battle
Mountain. Sunny and warm on Monday across northern and central
Nevada. Moisture will slowly build under the ridge next week
which will result in afternoon cumulus clouds building initially
over east-central Nevada on Tuesday...then expanding in coverage
each afternoon to the north and west as the week progresses. At
this time thunderstorm activity is looking possible beginning on
Wednesday over east-central Nevada. May see the activity expand
into eastern Elko county and southeastern Lander county Thursday
and Friday. Even with the slowly increasing moisture (as
precipitable water levels reach up around 0.70 inches in east-
central Nevada by Friday) and light to moderate instability as
Lifted Indices lower to around -2C to -4C...there really isn`t
much forcing next week. As such expect thunderstorm coverage to be
isolated across central and northeastern Nevada later next week as
things stand right now.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions through the weekend. Gusty winds this
afternoon will diminish into this evening. Much lighter winds on
Saturday with continued sunny and dry conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty west to northwest winds will subside around sunset this
evening. Winds are expected to be light on Saturday. Hot weather
returns next week as high pressure strengthens over the Great
Basin. Increasing moisture brings a chance of dry thunderstorms by
next Wednesday, especially over east central Nevada or fire
weather zone 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

88/96/96/88




000
FXUS65 KLKN 242246
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
346 PM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cold front brings cool dry weather tonight across
the region. High pressure strengthens over the Great Basin on
Sunday with hot weather returning next week.  Dry thunderstorms
may develop by next Wednesday and Thursday as moisture increases
from the desert southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.
Shallow cold front has pulled up stationary across the central
Nevada, or quasi parallel to highway 50. Afternoon temps running
about 6-8 degrees cooler than Thursday with breezy conditions in
the 15-25 mph range. Trough that pushed cold front into Nevada
will be moving across Montana tonight. Once winds decouple this
evening, temps will fall quickly overnight with lower 40s across
many valleys. Some of the northern and mountain valleys may dip
into mid 30s...perhaps pockets of lower 30s is quite possible
tonight.

Quite tranquil on Saturday with weak divergent westerly flow aloft
and weak gradient surface flow. Afternoon temps will be similar to
today given the cool morning start. These conditions will not last
very long as high pressure strengthens over the intermountain
West. Air mass turns warmer on Sunday by 7 to 10 degrees...90s
will be common in the valleys.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday.

Ridge over the southwestern US will keep high temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s in most valley locations next week...with 100
possible in a few of the lower elevation areas such as Battle
Mountain. Sunny and warm on Monday across northern and central
Nevada. Moisture will slowly build under the ridge next week
which will result in afternoon cumulus clouds building initially
over east-central Nevada on Tuesday...then expanding in coverage
each afternoon to the north and west as the week progresses. At
this time thunderstorm activity is looking possible beginning on
Wednesday over east-central Nevada. May see the activity expand
into eastern Elko county and southeastern Lander county Thursday
and Friday. Even with the slowly increasing moisture (as
precipitable water levels reach up around 0.70 inches in east-
central Nevada by Friday) and light to moderate instability as
Lifted Indices lower to around -2C to -4C...there really isn`t
much forcing next week. As such expect thunderstorm coverage to be
isolated across central and northeastern Nevada later next week as
things stand right now.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions through the weekend. Gusty winds this
afternoon will diminish into this evening. Much lighter winds on
Saturday with continued sunny and dry conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty west to northwest winds will subside around sunset this
evening. Winds are expected to be light on Saturday. Hot weather
returns next week as high pressure strengthens over the Great
Basin. Increasing moisture brings a chance of dry thunderstorms by
next Wednesday, especially over east central Nevada or fire
weather zone 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

88/96/96/88



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000
FXUS65 KREV 242202
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
302 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lighter winds will prevail into Saturday with temperatures only a
few degrees above seasonal averages. Locally breezy winds Sunday
as high pressure begins to build back in with hot weather and
light winds in store next week. Late in the week there will be a
small threat for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet day behind the weakening cold front with NW winds. As the
low over Washington continues to pull east this weekend, the high
over the Four Corners will build west into Nevada. Temperatures
will warm this weekend and once again be well above average by
Sunday. Winds are expected to be light tomorrow, but zephyr winds
are expected Sunday as a weak short wave moves through Oregon.

Early next week, the high builds into southern Utah with
temperatures nearing the century mark in Western NV and well into
the 80s in the Sierra. With the ridge axis to our south initially,
SW flow aloft will not be favorable for any thunderstorms,
although a couple buildups are possible by Tuesday or Wednesday.
As we move into Thursday, a more southerly flow aloft will allow
better convergence south of Highway 50 over mountain ridges. With
the hot temps and good low level instability, will continue with
the threat of thunderstorms there Thursday and Friday. With the
storms slow moving, they will put down some rain, but the cores
will likely be small. Thus there will be a threat for dry
lightning strikes and this will be monitored as we go through next
week. Wallmann

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected through the weekend. Localized surface
wind gusts from the west-northwest approaching 15-20
knots...especially east of Highway 95 as a weak cold front slides
east of the area. Ridge builds back across the region through the
weekend with typical late afternoon surface wind gusts to near 20
knots through early next week.

Next chance for any significant weather may be the middle of next
week as enough moisture begins to return to the region for
isolated thunderstorms by Thursday. 20/ELW

&&



.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 242132
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
230 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures will continue through
Monday as high pressure builds over the area. Monsoon moisture will
start to seep in from the southeast early next week, bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but
more humid conditions, especially for areas south and east of Las
Vegas.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday Night.

Areas of smoke filled the Las Vegas Valley early this morning and
light winds throughout the day has kept much of the smoke trapped in
the valley. Things have improved somewhat over the past couple of
hours and we should start to clear out a little more early this
evening as southwest winds start to increase. Smoke from the Erskine
Fire near Lake Isabells is evident on visible satellite imagery and
it looks like much of the smoke is currently blowing to the south.
Its unlikely that we will see additional smoke on Saturday like we
had today because the 850-700mb flow is more out of the southeast
which should keep the smoke well west of southern Nevada.

High pressure is expected to build back over the region this weekend
allowing temperatures to start another climb upward. Right now it
looks like temperatures should stay low enough not to have any
excessive heat warnings, but it will still be a hot weekend. Very
little in the way of clouds will be seen through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday

An inverted trough will be moving across southwest Arizona and into
southern California on Monday morning. The trough combined with the
ridge of high pressure that will be moving to the east will help to
increase moisture into eastern San Bernardino and southern Mohave
Counties during the day on Monday and should be enough to initiate
isolated activity over the higher terrain of Mohave County. The
southeasterly flow around the ridge will continue on Tuesday with
isolated thunderstorms possible in much of southern Nevada and
eastern San Bernardino County with scattered coverage in Mohave
County. There is good model agreement that a more substantial push
of moisture will occur on Wednesday, with the 1 inch PW line pushing
well into Clark County and the 1.5 inch line nearing Lake Havasu
City. At this point Wednesday looks to be the most active convective
day of the period. Some drying will occur beginning on Thursday
across the western half of our forecast area, but moisture will
remain in place across eastern Nevada and northwest Arizona with
isolated to scattered afternoon convection expected.

As far as the temperatures are concerned, Monday should be the
hottest day of the period. When temperatures will be close to
excessive heat criteria in some of the desert locations, but at this
point expected to remain below the criteria. The increasing moisture
and decreasing heights will help to provide a few degrees of cooling
for the remainder of the week, but temperatures will continue to
remain solidly above the seasonal normals.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...
Areas of smoke will be seen into this evening, but visibility is not
expected to lower less than 10sm. As southwest winds increase early
this evening the smoke is expected to clear somewhat overnight. A
weak boundary is forecast to move through southern Nevada after 14z
Saturday with northeast winds around 10 kts developing through 18z
then shifting more easterly around 10 kts in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Areas of smoke this evening across portions of Clark
and San Bernardino Counties, otherwise clear skies will prevail.
Gusty west winds across western San Bernardino County this evening
with other areas seeing wind speeds less than 10 kts. Most of the
area will see Northeast to East winds Saturday with speeds around 10-
15 kts. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Gorelow
Long Term...Czyzyk

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KVEF 241456 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
756 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures will continue through
Monday as high pressure builds over the area. Monsoon moisture will
start to seep in from the southeast early next week, bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but
more humid conditions, especially for areas south and east of Las
Vegas.
&&

.UPDATE...Areas of smoke likely from the Erskine Fire near Lake
Isabella, CA will continue to spread throughout San Bernardino,
Clark, and southern Mohave Counties. Winds are expected to remain
fairly light through much of the day, so smoke should stick around
through the afternoon. Just a few changes to add smoke to the grids,
but no other updates needed.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
233 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.

A hot and dry weekend on the way with temperatures remaining well
above normal under mostly clear conditions. With heat being the main
concern over the weekend, considered the heat impact levels and any
potential for issuance of excessive heat related hazards. My
impression is that temperatures reaching excessive heat levels will
not be widespread. Taking into consideration the location and
strength of high pressure relative to what we saw last week, the
overall increase in expected early summer temperatures and the kind
of numbers that would be needed to approach, reach or exceed record
levels, falls short and no excessive heat products will be issued
with this forecast package. With that said, there is no doubt it
will be hot across the deserts and precautions will still need to be
taken when venturing out in the heat.

The second concern is the potential for increasing moisture early
Monday morning ahead of an inverted trough moving westward along the
U.S./Mexican border. Model surface dewpoint temperatures are
forecast to increase overnight Sunday into early Monday along the
southern portions of the CWA. Not expecting any shower/tstorm
activity but there could be an increase in cloud cover as the
steering flow directs possible debris clouds our way.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Models are in agreement with positioning the upper high near the
four corners region Monday with an inverted trough moving west
across Baja and far southern California. This pattern should be
favorable to start bringing some monsoon moisture up into at least
southern portions of Mohave County and perhaps southeast San
Bernardino County leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms by the
afternoon or evening. Thunderstorm chances will gradually spread
north and west Tuesday through Wednesday as the high remains near
the four corners and southeasterly flow continues to push moisture
up into the forecast area. The best chances of thunderstorms will be
across the eastern CWA. The upper high is then progged to shift a
bit into southwest New Mexico Thursday but this will not likely lead
to much change over our area with thunderstorm chances continuing
especially over Mohave County. Temperatures Monday are still
expected to be pretty hot but the increasing moisture and cloud
cover will lead to temperatures closer to normal Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southerly winds around 10 kts to continue
through the night backing slightly to the southeast and decreasing
after sunrise. Winds this afternoon and tonight will be similar to
yesterday following typical diurnal trends.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusty winds between 20-30 kts will persist through the
night across the western Mojave Desert near KDAG then decrease after
sunrise. West winds will return to the western Mojave Desert again
later today with generally light winds expected elsewhere under
clear skies.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Update...Gorelow
Short term/Aviation...Salmen
Long term...Harrison

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KVEF 241456 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
756 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures will continue through
Monday as high pressure builds over the area. Monsoon moisture will
start to seep in from the southeast early next week, bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but
more humid conditions, especially for areas south and east of Las
Vegas.
&&

.UPDATE...Areas of smoke likely from the Erskine Fire near Lake
Isabella, CA will continue to spread throughout San Bernardino,
Clark, and southern Mohave Counties. Winds are expected to remain
fairly light through much of the day, so smoke should stick around
through the afternoon. Just a few changes to add smoke to the grids,
but no other updates needed.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
233 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.

A hot and dry weekend on the way with temperatures remaining well
above normal under mostly clear conditions. With heat being the main
concern over the weekend, considered the heat impact levels and any
potential for issuance of excessive heat related hazards. My
impression is that temperatures reaching excessive heat levels will
not be widespread. Taking into consideration the location and
strength of high pressure relative to what we saw last week, the
overall increase in expected early summer temperatures and the kind
of numbers that would be needed to approach, reach or exceed record
levels, falls short and no excessive heat products will be issued
with this forecast package. With that said, there is no doubt it
will be hot across the deserts and precautions will still need to be
taken when venturing out in the heat.

The second concern is the potential for increasing moisture early
Monday morning ahead of an inverted trough moving westward along the
U.S./Mexican border. Model surface dewpoint temperatures are
forecast to increase overnight Sunday into early Monday along the
southern portions of the CWA. Not expecting any shower/tstorm
activity but there could be an increase in cloud cover as the
steering flow directs possible debris clouds our way.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Models are in agreement with positioning the upper high near the
four corners region Monday with an inverted trough moving west
across Baja and far southern California. This pattern should be
favorable to start bringing some monsoon moisture up into at least
southern portions of Mohave County and perhaps southeast San
Bernardino County leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms by the
afternoon or evening. Thunderstorm chances will gradually spread
north and west Tuesday through Wednesday as the high remains near
the four corners and southeasterly flow continues to push moisture
up into the forecast area. The best chances of thunderstorms will be
across the eastern CWA. The upper high is then progged to shift a
bit into southwest New Mexico Thursday but this will not likely lead
to much change over our area with thunderstorm chances continuing
especially over Mohave County. Temperatures Monday are still
expected to be pretty hot but the increasing moisture and cloud
cover will lead to temperatures closer to normal Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southerly winds around 10 kts to continue
through the night backing slightly to the southeast and decreasing
after sunrise. Winds this afternoon and tonight will be similar to
yesterday following typical diurnal trends.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusty winds between 20-30 kts will persist through the
night across the western Mojave Desert near KDAG then decrease after
sunrise. West winds will return to the western Mojave Desert again
later today with generally light winds expected elsewhere under
clear skies.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Update...Gorelow
Short term/Aviation...Salmen
Long term...Harrison

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KREV 241042 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Lighter winds will prevail this weekend with temperatures only a few
degrees above seasonal averages today. Then hot weather returns as
high temperatures return into the upper 90s by Sunday and continue
through midweek. Dry conditions will remain with breezy afternoon
winds expected for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Winds have diminished across most areas with just some light valley
breezes prevailing and gusty conditions remaining across the ridge
tops. Winds across the ridges will diminish through the morning as
the shortwave trough departs the region. This will leave the region
under light northwest flow today which will aid in providing
temperatures nearer to season averages. Highs today will reach into
the upper 80s across western Nevada with upper 70s for Sierra
Valleys.

Light winds and dry conditions will allow for efficient cooling
Friday night into Saturday morning with lows dipping to near the
freezing mark for colder Sierra Valleys. Otherwise expect a warm-up
into early next week as high pressure becomes reestablished. Highs
will return to the lower 90s by Saturday for western Nevada with
low 80s possible across Sierra valleys. By Sunday high
temperatures will further warm into the upper 90s and upper 80s
respectively. Winds will also become breezy by Sunday afternoon as
shortwave trough and surface gradient act to produce zephyr winds
with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. This may result in choppy
conditions on Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake, and other area lakes
across the northern Sierra and western Nevada. Fuentes

.Long Term...Monday through Thursday...

Just a few minor adjustments were made to the extended forecast
today. The medium range operational models and most of the GEFS
ensemble members remain in fairly good agreement through the
extended forecast with the overall pattern.

Building heat under a broad ridge will push highs in the lower
valleys into the mid 90s to just over 100 by Tuesday through
Thursday while highs in the Sierra valleys reach well into the 80s.
Afternoon zephyr winds are likely each day with gusts in the 25-30
mph range east of the Sierra.

The GFS is a bit more aggressive with trying to bring convection
back into the picture starting as early as Tuesday for southern Mono
County. No other guidance supports convection this early as mid to
upper level flow remains west-southwest. The ECMWF and some of the
GEFS ensemble members start to push the ridge far enough east
Thursday to allow moisture to start returning to the region.
Also...the ridge axis moving east allows high temperatures in the
Sierra Thursday to fall a few degrees. This results in slightly
stronger zephyr wind gusts and could aid in low to mid level
convergence Thursday. So the isolated coverage for Thursday was
expanded a bit to the north along the Pine Nut and Virginia ranges
and to the east into Mineral and southwest Churchill counties. 20

&&

.Aviation...

VFR today with a few surface wind gusts from the west-northwest
approaching 15-20 knots...especially east of Highway 95. Ridge
starts to build back into the region late today with continued VFR
conditions...almost no clouds...and typical late afternoon surface
wind gusts to near 20 knots through the weekend and early next week.

Next chance for any significant weather may be the middle of next
week as enough moisture begins to return to the region for
isolated thunderstorms by Thursday. 20

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KLKN 240945
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
245 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific Northwest storm system moving onshore will bring cooler
temperatures to the northern tier of Nevada today via a dry cold
front. A narrow band of increased moisture evident in surface
observations and water vapor imagery is traversing northern
Nevada albeit cloudless skies still exist over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
Substantially drier air exists south of the narrow plume of
moisture across Northern Nevada where surface dewpoints have shot
up into the mid to upper 30`s. High temperatures behind the cold
front will generally be 5F to 8F cooler than the past few days
across the northern half of the state. Models are in good
agreement in bringing boundary layer winds down just a bit further
...especially in the afternoon...today and Saturday. Some daytime
instability will be present across Northern Nye and White Pine
counties as weak frontogenetic forcing and slightly increased
mid-level moisture aid in convection across this area.
However...still limited moisture should prevent deep layer
convection and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours today. A return to a very stable environment will
occur over the weekend as high pressure once again builds over the
desert southwest in the wake of the Pacific Northwest trough.

.LONG TERM...
Saturday night through next Friday. Models are
still in fairly good agreement with a building upper level ridge
over the southwestern United States through next week. For this
weekend, heights will be on the rise as the upper level ridge
shifts east from its current position off the CA coast to southern
Utah/northern Arizona by Sunday and Monday. The weather will be
tranquil Saturday night through Sunday night with highs rising
into the mid 80s to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the 40s and
50s. Monday is forecast to be several degrees warmer, with
readings reaching the mid 90s to near 100 degrees in some parts
of the forecast area. Skies will continue to remain mostly clear
and sunny. Overnight lows Monday night will range in the 50s and
60s. By Tuesday, the ridge will set up somewhere around the four
corners region, although model solutions are depicting different
locations for the center of circulation. This will have some
ramifications in the longer term forecast with respect to the
degree of moisture being pulled up from the south. Have kept the
threat for isolated, to maybe scattered, showers and thunderstorms
for the eastern half for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
Will need to watch the initial moisture push, as well as the
western fringes, for dry thunderstorms as this will have possible
ramifications for fire weather. Afternoon highs each day will be
in the 90s to maybe 100 degrees with overnight lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours
at all TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty afternoon winds will be present across the the northern
fire zones but will be below critical red flag thresholds.
Also...slightly higher relative humidities behind the cold front
will improve nighttime recoveries across much of the state through
Saturday.

Hot and dry conditions return next week but also the possibility
of dry thunderstorm activity by midweek as mid-level moisture
gets pumped northward around the western edge of the high
pressure dome. Gradient level winds will slacken next week as well
as the overall pressure gradient decreases across the region.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93




000
FXUS65 KVEF 240933
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
233 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures will continue through
Monday as high pressure builds over the area. Monsoon moisture will
start to seep in from the southeast early next week, bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but
more humid conditions, especially for areas south and east of Las
Vegas.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.

A hot and dry weekend on the way with temperatures remaining well
above normal under mostly clear conditions. With heat being the main
concern over the weekend, considered the heat impact levels and any
potential for issuance of excessive heat related hazards. My
impression is that temperatures reaching excessive heat levels will
not be widespread. Taking into consideration the location and
strength of high pressure relative to what we saw last week, the
overall increase in expected early summer temperatures and the kind
of numbers that would be needed to approach, reach or exceed record
levels, falls short and no excessive heat products will be issued
with this forecast package. With that said, there is no doubt it
will be hot across the deserts and precautions will still need to be
taken when venturing out in the heat.

The second concern is the potential for increasing moisture early
Monday morning ahead of an inverted trough moving westward along the
U.S./Mexican border. Model surface dewpoint temperatures are
forecast to increase overnight Sunday into early Monday along the
southern portions of the CWA. Not expecting any shower/tstorm
activity but there could be an increase in cloud cover as the
steering flow directs possible debris clouds our way.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Models are in agreement with positioning the upper high near the
four corners region Monday with an inverted trough moving west
across Baja and far southern California. This pattern should be
favorable to start bringing some monsoon moisture up into at least
southern portions of Mohave County and perhaps southeast San
Bernardino County leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms by the
afternoon or evening. Thunderstorm chances will gradually spread
north and west Tuesday through Wednesday as the high remains near
the four corners and southeasterly flow continues to push moisture
up into the forecast area. The best chances of thunderstorms will be
across the eastern CWA. The upper high is then progged to shift a
bit into southwest New Mexico Thursday but this will not likely lead
to much change over our area with thunderstorm chances continuing
especially over Mohave County. Temperatures Monday are still
expected to be pretty hot but the increasing moisture and cloud
cover will lead to temperatures closer to normal Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southerly winds around 10 kts to continue
through the night backing slightly to the southeast and decreasing
after sunrise. Winds this afternoon and tonight will be similar to
yesterday following typical diurnal trends.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusty winds between 20-30 kts will persist through the
night across the western Mojave Desert near KDAG then decrease after
sunrise. West winds will return to the western Mojave Desert again
later today with generally light winds expected elsewhere under
clear skies.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short term/Aviation...Salmen
Long term...Harrison

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KREV 240913
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Lighter winds will prevail this weekend with temperatures only a few
degrees above seasonal averages today. Then hot weather returns as
high temperatures return into the upper 90s by Sunday and continue
through midweek. Dry conditions will remain with breezy afternoon
winds expected for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Winds have diminished across most areas with just some light valley
breezes prevailing and gusty conditions remaining across the ridge
tops. Winds across the ridges will diminish through the morning as
the a shortwave trough departs the region. This will leave the
region under light northwest flow today which will aid in providing
temperatures nearer to season averages. Highs today will reach into
the upper 80s across western Nevada with upper 70s for Sierra
Valleys.

Light winds and dry conditions will allow for efficient cooling
Friday night into Saturday morning with lows dipping to near the
freezing mark for colder Sierra Valleys. Otherwise expect a warm-up
into early next week as high pressure becomes reestablished. Highs
will return to the lower 90s by Saturday for western Nevada with
low 80s possible across Sierra valleys. By Sunday high
temperatures will further warm into the upper 90s and upper 80s
respectively. Winds will also become breezy by Sunday afternoon as
shortwave trough and surface gradient act to produce zephyr winds
with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. This may result in choppy
conditions on Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake, and other area lakes
across the northern Sierra and western Nevada. Fuentes

.Long Term...Monday through Thursday...

Just a few minor adjustments were made to the extended forecast
today. The medium range operational models and most of the GEFS
ensemble members remain in fairly good agreement through the
extended forecast with the overall pattern.

Building heat under a broad ridge will push highs in the lower
valleys into the mid 90s to just over 100 by Tuesday through
Thursday while highs in the Sierra valleys reach well into the 80s.
Afternoon zephyr winds are likely each day with gusts in the 25-30
mph range east of the Sierra.

The GFS is a bit more aggressive with trying to bring convection
back into the picture starting as early as Tuesday for southern Mono
County. No other guidance supports convection this early as mid to
upper level flow remains west-southwest. The ECMWF and some of the
GEFS ensemble members start to push the ridge far enough east
Thursday to allow moisture to start returning to the region.
Also...the ridge axis moving east allows high temperatures in the
Sierra Thursday to fall a few degrees. This results in slightly
stronger zephyr wind gusts and could aid in low to mid level
convergence Thursday. So the isolated coverage for Thursday was
expanded a bit to the north along the Pine Nut and Virginia ranges
and to the east into Mineral and southwest Churchill counties. 20

&&

.Aviation...

VFR today with a few surface wind gusts from the west-northwest
approaching 15-20 knots...especially east of Highway 95. Ridge
starts to build back into the region late today with continued VFR
conditions...almost no clouds...and typical late afternoon surface
wind gusts to near 20 knots through the weekend and early next week.

Next chance for any significant weather may be the middle of next
week as enough moisture begins to return to the region for
isolated thunderstorms by Thursday. 20

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 240448
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
948 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain well above normal through
Monday under high pressure. Monsoon moisture will start to seep in
from the southeast early next week, bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but more humid conditions,
especially for areas south and east of Las Vegas.
&&

.UPDATE...Forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned this
evening. -Wolcott-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
229 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.

Dry weather still expected through the period with high pressure in
control. Main concern remains the heat. Heat Impact Level grids
still show only spotty areas of 3 and 4, making it hard to justify
issuing an Excessive Heat Watch. Discussed this with neighboring
offices earlier and there was a solid consensus. Best performing
model guidance was very similar to previous forecasts, so very
little change through the period.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

High pressure ridge anchored over the four corners will begin to
take on an orientation more favorable to allow monsoonal moisture to
creep into the region. In addition, a weak upper low currently
approaching far south Texas will drift west over the next several
days and eventually aid in pushing deeper moisture into the
Southwest.  Precipitation chances will be on the increase through
the week from east to west, with the best chances for regional
thunderstorm activity looking to occur Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain quite warm but will be cooling to within a
few degrees of seasonal normals by midweek.  Convective cloud debris
will occasionally push through the region which could keep our highs
suppressed a few additional degrees when they occur, or
alternatively, work to keep our overnight lows elevated.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran..Breezy southwest winds with occasional
gusts to 20 knots will persist through sunset. Southwest breezes
will persist but gusts will decrease thereafter. Winds tomorrow will
be similar to today following typical diurnal trends.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusty conditions expected to develop this evening
across the Western Mojave Desert near KDAG where gusts may range
from 25-30 knots.  West winds will return to the Western Mojave
again tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere...generally light winds are
expected with clear skies.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Morgan/Outler

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KREV 240411 AAA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
911 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...

All warnings and advisories have been allowed to expire this
evening as winds have backed off, after peaking in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Ridge winds will likely
continue to gust above 40-50 mph overnight as upper trough and
associated winds aloft continue to swing across the northern Great
Basin. Winds on ridges are expected to decrease Friday with
lighter winds for surface areas including area lakes. It is going
to remain quite dry with only a brief recovery Friday morning.
Minimum humidity will fall into the single digits to mid teens
once again each afternoon Friday through early next week with poor
mid/upper slope recovery. Hohmann

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will decrease as low pressure pulls away from the region
Friday. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will bring dry and
very warm conditions this weekend with hot temperatures by early
next week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Strong and gusty winds combined with a very dry airmass will
result in critical fire weather conditions this evening along
with hazardous boating conditions on area lakes. Winds will lessen
for the remainder of the weekend with a return to hot temperatures
by early next week.

DISCUSSION...
Winds have come up as expected, although they are a little lighter
than earlier anticipated, but still supporting Lake Wind
Advisories. These winds will continue into the early evening
before diminishing as the sun sets. Winds aloft remain gusty
though so ridges will remain up all night, and some higher
elevations will also see a few gusts.

Cooler and less windy tomorrow behind the weakening front as flow
becomes more N-NW. A relatively cool night Friday night compared
to the past few for most areas. The exception will be Pershing
County where NE winds are expected to be a little stronger
preventing decoupling.

The ridge then slowly rebuilds over the weekend with warming
temperatures. A weak short wave will move into Oregon Sunday which
will increase the winds a little, but we are only expecting an
average zephyr with peak gusts 25-30 mph currently. By Monday,
the Four Corners High is expected to expand westward enough into
Nevada for highs about 10 degrees above average for Monday that
will continue through midweek.

The question for mid to late week then becomes will there be any
thunderstorms? The EC/GFS/ensembles continue to show the ridge
rounding a bit with more southerly flow Wednesday into Thursday.
Temps aloft remain quite warm, but repeated convergence over
Mono/Western Mineral Counties eventually does pop something.
Wednesday looks a little early and we have the mention of isolated
storms for Thursday. With limited moisture, any storms that do
form would likely have only small cores. Wallmann

FIRE WEATHER...

There have been no real changes to the messaging for this afternoon
into next week. Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest has
been slower than forecast resulting in a delay for stronger winds
for the Basin and Range. However, along the Sierra Front in Western
Nevada, winds have been gusting around and above 30 mph early this
afternoon. Winds will increase through the evening with gusts still
expected in the 30 to 40 mph range. Winds will taper off overnight
as the low moves into southern Canada relaxing the pressure gradient
over the region. Friday will have lighter breezes generally less
than 25 mph. Still, some wind prone locations may briefly see gusts
around 30 mph.

Relative Humidity has been very low across the region with mostly
single digits; even Lake Tahoe has had single digits today. Expect
slightly better recoveries tonight than last night, but only about a
5-10% increase. Humidity will tank again Friday night as the dry
slot intensifies once again over the Sierra and Western Nevada.
This dry slot will persist into next week keeping conditions very
dry even in the higher elevations.

As noted in the long term forecast, flow may open up from the
southwest by Thursday allowing for increased surface convergence
along the Sierra and Sierra Front. A few lightning strikes will not
be out of the question if flow opens up, and any thunderstorms that
do form later next week would likely be initially dry. We`ll be
keeping a close eye on how flow and moisture advection evolves over
the next few days. Boyd

AVIATION...

Expect westerly gusts 25-35 knots this afternoon to continue
through this evening. Winds over the ridge tops could gust above
50 knots so mechanical turbulence is also likely. Valley winds
will decrease by midnight but will increase again Friday afternoon
with gusts 20-25 knots expected for the terminals east of the
Sierra. JCM

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KLKN 232208
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
308 PM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds will occur as a cold front moves across
northern and central Nevada tonight and Friday. Cooler conditions
are expected Friday and Saturday. Strong high pressure returns
with more hot weather next week. Some thunderstorms with little
rain may develop by mid week...mostly over eastern Nevada.

&&

.GENERAL DISCUSSION...This afternoon through next Thursday.

Much drier air has already advected in, crashing Pwat values to
near or below .25 inches. The cold front is just pushing into
northern CA with associated SW to NE polar jet stream lying right
behind. Due to the increase in surface winds overnight, temps have
climbed quickly above yesterday`s temps at this time; however, not
expected to climb above yesterday`s max as heights. Additionally,
surface winds are already increasing across northern NV. The 500mb
trof and associated cold front swing through area beginning this
evening in western Humboldt county. The dry cold front is expected
to be along a Jackpot to Tonopah line by tomorrow morning before
becoming stalling out west to east in far southern areas by
tomorrow afternoon. By this time, the boundary is a line of
discontinuity before completing falling apart. The main impact
from the system will the be the strong and gusty pre and post-
frontal winds. The polar front jet stream clips the northern
fringes of the state tomorrow afternoon when the upper level low
pushes eastward from Washington into Idaho. Although advisory
levels wind speed and gusts are unlikely, it is creating fire
weather concerns this afternoon and early evening due to the very
dry airmass advecting in (see fire weather discussion below). The
good news is the airmass is cooler, so expect daytime highs to
fall tomorrow, especially along the ID/NV border. 70`s will make a
very brief return along the ID/NV border.

Sunday through Tuesday...Models are still in good agreement in bringing
another building high pressure dome over the Desert Southwest
with similarly hot and dry conditions expected over the Great
Basin region. Although slightly above high temps are expected on
Sunday, they quickly climb well above average on Monday. Heat
advisories look plausible for central NV early next week when 100s
creeping back into the lowest valleys. 500mb heights reach the
592-594dm range-Some weak return begins on Tuesday but only a few
buildups are expected at this time in far southern White Pine
county.

Wednesday through Thursday...Models continue to advertise the
500mb high shifting just enough eastward to open the eastern areas
to weak south to southeast flow aloft. This is turned would push
the moist/dry line into parts of central NV by Wednesday
afternoon, and possible into northeastern NV by Thursday
afternoon. There are still some important differences in the
evolution of a weak 500mb trof that approaches the west coast
Tuesday...and this in turn determines how strong the moisture push
is and whether some weak mid level circulations are pulled
northward Wednesday or Thursday. Mid to upper level streamflow
analysis displays a more favor pattern with the EC than the GFS or
GEM. In fact, the GFS maintains nearly anti-cyclonic flow on both
days, which reduces or limits the moisture surge. Due to this, went
modest with pops over the eastern half of the area and kept
majority of thunderstorm activity on the dry side. Some very light
rainfall amounts are possible in the higher terrain. If the EC is
correct, we could even see activity Wednesday night. Overall,
cloud cover and possible convection should reduce high
temperatures somewhat in eastern NV, especially in the higher
terrain. The exception will be Humboldt county, where very warm or
hot conditions should persist on both days.

.AVIATION...VFR conditions. Gusty westerly winds this afternoon
and evening ahead of a dry cold front. Expect gusty northerly or
northwesterly towards the end of the TAF period (early afternoon
tomorrow).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Humidity values have exceeded critical thresholds
across early this afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected when erratic gusty winds increase as deep layered mixing
occurs. The strongest gusts are expected west of the Santa Rosa
range where a Red Flag Warning is in effect (zone 467). Some gusty
winds will extend into northeast Nevada, but will be brief, spotty
and not as widespread.

Friday...In the post frontal environment, dew point values will be
higher with lower afternoon temperatures. Breezy conditions are
expected Friday afternoon, but staying below critical thresholds.
Isolated spots toward the Utah border (zone 470) may reach
critical fire weather conditions, but this will not be widespread
and will not hoist any warnings.

Next Wednesday and Thursday...Medium range models suggesting an
increase of moisture for a chance of high based thunderstorms.
Fuels are not critical where thunderstorms are most likely to
form. In addition, there is great uncertainty how much mid level
moisture will get transported into eastern Nevada.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Central and
Western Humboldt County.

&&

$$

85/85/88




000
FXUS65 KREV 232130
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong and gusty winds combined with a very dry airmass will
result in critical fire weather conditions this evening along
with hazardous boating conditions on area lakes. Winds will lessen
for the remainder of the weekend with a return to hot temperatures
by early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds have come up as expected, although they are a little lighter
than earlier anticipated, but still supporting Lake Wind
Advisories. These winds will continue into the early evening
before diminishing as the sun sets. Winds aloft remain gusty
though so ridges will remain up all night, and some higher
elevations will also see a few gusts.

Cooler and less windy tomorrow behind the weakening front as flow
becomes more N-NW. A relatively cool night Friday night compared
to the past few for most areas. The exception will be Pershing
County where NE winds are expected to be a little stronger
preventing decoupling.

The ridge then slowly rebuilds over the weekend with warming
temperatures. A weak short wave will move into Oregon Sunday which
will increase the winds a little, but we are only expecting an
average zephyr with peak gusts 25-30 mph currently. By Monday,
the Four Corners High is expected to expand westward enough into
Nevada for highs about 10 degrees above average for Monday that
will continue through midweek.

The question for mid to late week then becomes will there be any
thunderstorms? The EC/GFS/ensembles continue to show the ridge
rounding a bit with more southerly flow Wednesday into Thursday.
Temps aloft remain quite warm, but repeated convergence over
Mono/Western Mineral Counties eventually does pop something.
Wednesday looks a little early and we have the mention of isolated
storms for Thursday. With limited moisture, any storms that do
form would likely have only small cores. Wallmann

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There have been no real changes to the messaging for this afternoon
into next week. Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest has
been slower than forecast resulting in a delay for stronger winds
for the Basin and Range. However, along the Sierra Front in Western
Nevada, winds have been gusting around and above 30 mph early this
afternoon. Winds will increase through the evening with gusts still
expected in the 30 to 40 mph range. Winds will taper off overnight
as the low moves into southern Canada relaxing the pressure gradient
over the region. Friday will have lighter breezes generally less
than 25 mph. Still, some wind prone locations may briefly see gusts
around 30 mph.

Relative Humidity has been very low across the region with mostly
single digits; even Lake Tahoe has had single digits today. Expect
slightly better recoveries tonight than last night, but only about a
5-10% increase. Humidity will tank again Friday night as the dry
slot intensifies once again over the Sierra and Western Nevada.
This dry slot will persist into next week keeping conditions very
dry even in the higher elevations.

As noted in the long term forecast, flow may open up from the
southwest by Thursday allowing for increased surface convergence
along the Sierra and Sierra Front. A few lightning strikes will not
be out of the question if flow opens up, and any thunderstorms that
do form later next week would likely be initially dry. We`ll be
keeping a close eye on how flow and moisture advection evolves over
the next few days. Boyd

&&

.Aviation...

Expect westerly gusts 25-35 knots this afternoon to continue
through this evening. Winds over the ridge tops could gust above
50 knots so mechanical turbulence is also likely. Valley winds
will decrease by midnight but will increase again Friday afternoon
with gusts 20-25 knots expected for the terminals east of the
Sierra. JCM

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ450-453-459.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ001.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ071.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 232129
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
229 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain well above normal through
Monday under high pressure. Monsoon moisture will start to seep in
from the southeast early next week, bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but more humid conditions,
especially for areas south and east of Las Vegas.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.

Dry weather still expected through the period with high pressure in
control. Main concern remains the heat. Heat Impact Level grids
still show only spotty areas of 3 and 4, making it hard to justify
issuing an Excessive Heat Watch. Discussed this with neighboring
offices earlier and there was a solid consensus. Best performing
model guidance was very similar to previous forecasts, so very
little change through the period.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

High pressure ridge anchored over the four corners will begin to
take on an orientation more favorable to allow monsoonal moisture to
creep into the region. In addition, a weak upper low currently
approaching far south Texas will drift west over the next several
days and eventually aid in pushing deeper moisture into the
Southwest.  Precipitation chances will be on the increase through
the week from east to west, with the best chances for regional
thunderstorm activity looking to occur Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain quite warm but will be cooling to within a
few degrees of seasonal normals by midweek.  Convective cloud debris
will occasionally push through the region which could keep our highs
suppressed a few additional degrees when they occur, or
alternatively, work to keep our overnight lows elevated.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran..Breezy southwest winds with occasional
gusts to 20 knots will persist through sunset. Southwest breezes
will persist but gusts will decrease thereafter. Winds tomorrow will
be similar to today following typical diurnal trends.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusty conditions expected to develop this evening
across the Western Mojave Desert near KDAG where gusts may range
from 25-30 knots.  West winds will return to the Western Mojave
again tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere...generally light winds are
expected with clear skies.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Morgan/Outler

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KVEF 231531
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
831 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue for the next
week. Temperatures will begin to trend upward again by Sunday as
another ridge of high pressure builds into the region. As the ridge
pushes further east on Monday moisture will try to begin to seep
into the deserts early in the week.
&&

.UPDATE...Quiet weather today. No update planned this morning.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
236 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.

A trough of low pressure was moving into the Pacific Northwest this
morning and will push east across the Intermountain West through
Saturday. This will knock heights down enough to bring us below
widespread excessive heat levels...though temperatures will still be
running several degrees above average. This will also result in
drier westerly flow across the region, and therefore dry conditions
are expected throughout the short term period. Periods of gusty
winds will be possible throughout the period.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

High pressure will strengthen over the region Sunday leading to dry
and very hot conditions which will likely carry into Monday. The
models have trend cooler, especially the ECMWF which keeps high
temperatures for Las Vegas under 110. Due to this trend, we decided
not to go with an excessive heat watch at this time. The models have
trended wetter Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure shifts east a
bit, allowing moisture to work northwest into the area. As a result,
we are now forecasting a slight chance of thunderstorms across
mainly Mohave County and the mountains of Clark County. With this
intrusion of moisture, models have really lowered high temperatures
and I also trended temps lower but not quite as low as some of the
guidance.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...VFR through the period. Winds should
behave similarly to yesterday, except speeds are expected to be
somewhat lighter. Generally S or SSE winds below 10 kts should
transition to light and variable this morning before becoming
predominantly southeasterly around 21Z and then SSW by 00Z.
Strongest speeds will be 21Z to 06Z (8 to 15 kts with occasional
gusts to 20 kts). Very hot daytime temperatures will lead to high
density altitude concerns through the weekend.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...VFR through the period. Generally light, terrain-driven
flow should transition to stronger south to southwest flow (speeds
10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts) during the afternoon. A slow
downward trend in speeds is expected after dark. Surface winds are
expected to be mostly terrain-driven near KBIH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM....HARRISON
AVIATION.....SHAFER

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KLKN 231026
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
326 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Satellite imagery shows a Pacific Northwest storm
system coming ashore across Washington state. A robust high
pressure ridge is still in place across the Desert Southwest but
is beginning to weaken and shift a bit eastward more into the
Southern Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Gusty west to southwest
winds will develop across much of northern Nevada today as the
Pacific Northwest trough constricts the pressure gradient across
the region. Latest numerical guidance suggests slightly lower wind
speeds across Humboldt and Elko counties today and Friday but
lower RH values across the state will counteract the slightly
lower wind speeds when considering critical fire weather
thresholds. Temperatures will moderate Friday as a cold front
sweeps across northern NV before decelerating and washing out over
Nevada Friday night. A plume of mid-level moisture will accompany
the cold front across the northern part of the CWA but instability
will be lacking for substantial convection.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Thursday. Departing upper
level trough will keep northern and central Nevada in a westerly
flow aloft. For Friday night into Saturday, dry conditions will
continue to remain. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and
winds will remain light. For the rest of the period, the upper
level ridge is expected to build across the southwestern United
States, and move westward. What this will mean for the weather
across the region is gradually warming conditions. Highs Sunday
will climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s, with mid 90s to low
100s Monday through Wednesday. Heat advisory criteria may once
again be reached across the central zones and will need to be
watched. Models are also indicating moisture seeping into the
eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday. This
will bring increasing chances for dry thunderstorms in these
locations, and will also need to be watched as well for possible
fire weather impacts where fuels have cured.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will remain VFR through the 24 hour period
at all terminals.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Pacific Northwest trough with attendant cold front will approach
Northwest Nevada later today. As the system moves farther
inland...gusty winds will develop today across Humboldt county.
The gusty afternoon winds combined with the extremely low daytime
relative humidities of 5 to 10 percent will create critical fire
weather conditions across western Humboldt county.

Model Guidance suggests 700MB winds will maximize early Friday
morning before diminishing considerably throughout the day
Friday. This will translate to reduced surface winds speeds across
the northern fire zones but not enough to exclude the possibility
of winds reaching red flag criteria...especially across the higher
elevations across zones 468...469 and 470. In addition...higher
humidities and lower temperatures could prevent critical fire
weather conditions from occurring.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Central and Western Humboldt County.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93




000
FXUS65 KREV 230940
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
240 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong and gusty winds combined with a very dry airmass will result
in critical fire weather conditions this afternoon along with
hazardous boating conditions on area lakes. Winds will lessen for
the remainder of the weekend with a return to hot temperatures by
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Winds will be on the increase today as an upper level trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest. Winds have already picked up
across some mountain peak locations with Slide Mountain reporting
gusts around 60 mph. We will see these stronger winds develop across
valley levels this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient
intensifies and mixing of stronger winds materializes.

Winds will be stronger than yesterday with widespread gusts of 30-40
mph expected this afternoon. These gusty winds will couple with a
very dry airmass to set the stage for critical fire weather
conditions today. As a result, Red Flag Warnings have been posted
for portions of western Nevada. See the Fire Weather Discussion
section below for additional details. Rough and hazardous boating
conditions can also be expected for all area lakes today and Lake
Wind Advisories will be in place this afternoon as well. Winds will
diminish by this evening with the exception of ridge tops down to
mid-slope locations where the southern extent of the upper jet will
remain through Friday morning.

Winds will shift northwest behind the upper low and will provide
several degrees of cooling on Friday, but will still remain a few
degrees above season averages. Conditions will remain dry into the
weekend with light winds prevailing. Do expect another heating trend
into early next week with high temperatures returning to the lower
90s across western Nevada and lower 80s for the Sierra on Saturday
afternoon. Fuentes


.Long Term...Sunday through Wednesday...

The extended forecast remains one of broad upper level west to east
oriented ridging with occasional weak short waves riding over the
ridge to our north. Limited changes were made to the forecast this
cycle as the medium range operational models and the GEFS ensemble
members are in good agreement with the pattern evolution.

A weak wave passes north of the region Sunday with another Monday.
These waves may enhance the surface winds enough for gusts to near
30 mph both days north of Highway 50. Increasing temperatures aloft
and at the surface in a fairly uniform manner will cause the thermal
gradients across the forecast area to start to weaken a bit by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in a lessening of the winds
both days with zephyr type breezes reaching gusts of around 25 mph.

High temperatures in the western Nevada Basin and Range could reach
the 100-105 range by Tuesday and Wednesday with mid to upper 90s in
the other lower elevation valleys and mid to upper 80s in the Sierra
valleys. Convective possibilities are limited through much of the
forecast period...but there could be cumulus build ups over the
central Sierra starting Tuesday. A stray thunderstorm is not out of
the question for the central Sierra by Wednesday...but the better
chances appear to be starting Thursday as the upper ridge begins to
move east enough to allow some mid level moisture to return from the
south. 20

&&

.Aviation...

The biggest impact to aviation today and Friday will be gusty winds
with the strongest winds today. Westerly gusts of 30-35 knots are
possible east of the Sierra by early this afternoon with gusts of 25-
30 knots in the Sierra valleys. This is in response to an
approaching trough of low pressure that will move across southern
Oregon through Friday and increased low level thermal gradients.
Winds over the ridge tops could gust above 50 knots each day so
mechanical turbulence is likely. The flow becomes more northwest by
Friday and gusts decrease to 20-25 knots for the terminals east of
the Sierra.

VFR conditions with few clouds other than the occasional high and
mid level variety will be the norm through the weekend. Very hot
temperatures return early next week. The next chance for any active
convective weather may not be until the middle of next week. 20

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the Sierra Front in western
Nevada...the western Nevada Basin and Range and Mineral and Lyon
counties. In these areas fuels have reached critical levels. Gusty
west to southwest winds of 30-40 mph and relative humidity values
below 10% will create critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon and early this evening. The gusty winds and low humidity
values will extend into far northwest Nevada...northeast California
and the lower valleys of the Sierra as well...but fuels in these
areas have not as yet reached conditions critical enough to carry
fire sufficiently to warrant issuing Red Flag Warnings.

The trough responsible for the stronger winds will progress east of
the region Friday with lower temperatures and slightly higher
humidity values...a percent or two at most. While not widespread...
there could be locally critical areas again Friday...especially
along the Sierra Front and into the Basin and Range. These locations
would be mainly the wind prone areas. For now we will not issue any
Red Flag Warnings due to the limited coverage of these gusty
winds...but this will be reevaluated later today.

Lastly...very hot temperatures will return by early next week. Some
forecast guidance is showing the upper level ridge over the region
starting to push east just enough by the middle of next week to
allow mid level moisture to return to Mono/Alpine counties. This
could...I repeat could...be a cause for concern far out in the
forecast due to the possibility of potentially dry thunderstorms. 20

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ450-453-459.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ001.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening CAZ071.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 230936
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
236 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue for the next
week. Temperatures will begin to trend upward again by Sunday as
another ridge of high pressure builds into the region. As the ridge
pushes further east on Monday moisture will try to begin to seep
into the deserts early in the week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.

A trough of low pressure was moving into the Pacific Northwest this
morning and will push east across the Intermountain West through
Saturday. This will knock heights down enough to bring us below
widespread excessive heat levels...though temperatures will still be
running several degrees above average. This will also result in
drier westerly flow across the region, and therefore dry conditions
are expected throughout the short term period. Periods of gusty
winds will be possible throughout the period.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

High pressure will strengthen over the region Sunday leading to dry
and very hot conditions which will likely carry into Monday. The
models have trend cooler, especially the ECMWF which keeps high
temperatures for Las Vegas under 110. Due to this trend, we decided
not to go with an excessive heat watch at this time. The models have
trended wetter Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure shifts east a
bit, allowing moisture to work northwest into the area. As a result,
we are now forecasting a slight chance of thunderstorms across
mainly Mohave County and the mountains of Clark County. With this
intrusion of moisture, models have really lowered high temperatures
and I also trended temps lower but not quite as low as some of the
guidance.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...VFR through the period. Winds should
behave similarly to yesterday, except speeds are expected to be
somewhat lighter. Generally S or SSE winds below 10 kts should
transition to light and variable this morning before becoming
predominantly southeasterly around 21Z and then SSW by 00Z.
Strongest speeds will be 21Z to 06Z (8 to 15 kts with occasional
gusts to 20 kts). Very hot daytime temperatures will lead to high
density altitude concerns through the weekend.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...VFR through the period. Generally light, terrain-driven
flow should transition to stronger south to southwest flow (speeds
10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts) during the afternoon. A slow
downward trend in speeds is expected after dark. Surface winds are
expected to be mostly terrain-driven near KBIH.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM....HARRISON
AVIATION.....SHAFER

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KREV 230407 AAA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
907 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...fire weather

Winds were slowly backing off this evening although localized
gusts 30-35 mph were still being reported. Winds for valleys and
midslopes will show a further decrease during the remainder of the
evening with humidity levels slowly coming up as well. Widespread
critical fire weather conditions have ended for today. 00Z model
data still show another windy and dry day for Thursday with
critical fire weather conditions returning to much of west
central Nevada. Hohmann

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 202 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest this week
resulting in hot and dry conditions with afternoon and evening
breezes. Winds increase Thursday afternoon creating hazardous
conditions for lake activities and fire weather concerns. Slightly
cooler this weekend before hot temperatures return next week.

DISCUSSION...
High pressure continues to retreat slightly as low pressure moves
into the Pacific Northwest. Winds have increased early this
afternoon and are expected to continue into the evening, with the
strongest winds along the Sierra Front. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect, see the fire weather section below for more details.

Winds aloft increase further Thursday and looks to be the
strongest day with widespread wind gusts of 30-40 mph. This will
create issues for boaters (as well as fire) so will continue with
the lake wind advisories. The winds will diminish in the evening
for most locations, but will remain up on the ridges and some mid
slopes. Friday the winds aloft back off as the weakening cold
front moves through. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
Friday.

This weekend, the ridge over the Desert Southwest slowly builds
northwestward again into Nevada. Temperatures will begin to warm
back up and continue to be above average. One more short wave will
move through Sunday that will increase the winds a bit again, but
they look nothing like tomorrow at this point.

Early next week, the high becomes anchored over Northern AZ and
Utah with 700 mb temps rising to above 15 C. This will result in
highs nearing the century mark across portions of Western NV next
week with the Sierra valleys will into the 80s. Winds look light
outside of a late afternoon zephyr for Tahoe and the Sierra Front.
Temps at 500 mb remain near or above -6 C through Wednesday so
thunderstorms look unlikely although a buildup or two is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are beginning to look a little
more likely next week, but it appears they will hold off until
Thursday or Friday. Wallmann

AVIATION...

Main impact to aviation will be periods of enhanced southwest-west
winds trough this evening and again tomorrow afternoon. Mountain top
observations have been gusting 40-50 mph at Slide and Peavine,
likely leading to increased turbulence. This will continue through
tonight and tomorrow. Gusts on the order of 25-30 kts are likely for
all airports including RNO and MMH from roughly 21z-04z today, with
30-35 kt gusts the same time frame Thursday. With the strong
gusty winds, areas of blowing dust could produce local MVFR/IFR
conditions for areas around NFL, HTH.

Looking ahead, low pressure departs the region Friday with hot high
pressure building in over the weekend. This will lead to lighter
winds Friday and Saturday with a return of zephyr westerlies Sunday.
Density altitude may become a factor for some aircraft next Monday-
Wednesday afternoons with highs nearing 100 for RNO, CXP, 85-90
TVL,TRK,MMH. -Chris

FIRE WEATHER...

A persistent dry slot and unseasonably hot temperatures have kept
relative humidity very low through much of the Sierra and Western
Nevada the past couple of days. Afternoon RH has been in the single
digits for the mid slopes and lower elevations east of the Sierra
while only up to 20% in the Tahoe Basin. Thermal circulations are
also fairly strong with a temperature gradient supportive of gusts
around 30 mph this afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect this afternoon along the Western Nevada Sierra Front through
9 pm this evening.

The dry slot will persist overnight through pretty much Friday night
keeping overnight recoveries rather dismal, generally up to 35% east
of the Sierra and 50-60% in Sierra valleys from the Tahoe Basin
southward. Ridge tops and mid slopes will remain less than 40% in
the Sierra. Still, Friday night will have the poorest recoveries as
even drier air moves over the region dropping Sierra valley
recoveries lower than 50%.

Winds peak Thursday as a passing trough increases the pressure
gradient across the region. Gusts will generally be 30-40 mph in the
afternoon with wind prone locations gusting up to 45 mph. Red Flag
Warnings have been issued for the Western Nevada Sierra Front and
the Basin and Range where fuels have cured below 5500 feet. Fuels
around Gerlach in 458 have also cured so extra caution should be
exercised here as well, but no Red Flag Warning is in effect since
the rest of the zone remains sub-critical. Friday will be a little
breezy, but gusts should remain 25 mph and below.

After a bit of a respite with temperatures falling to around average
this weekend, hot conditions return next week. Fortunately, winds
are not expected to be over warning criteria as the thermal
circulations become interrupted by the thermal trough position over
the Sierra. Boyd

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ450-453-459.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ001.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday CAZ071.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS65 KVEF 230404
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
904 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue for the next
week. Temperatures will begin to trend upward again by Sunday as
another ridge of high pressure builds into the region. As the ridge
pushes further east on Monday moisture will try to begin to seep
into the deserts.
&&

.UPDATE...The Excessive Heat Warning was allowed to expire on time
this evening. The short range forecast is in good shape at this hour
and no updates are planned. -Wolcott-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.Discussion...Today through next Wednesday.

The excessive heat warning will end this evening across the area,
but temperatures will only lower by a few degrees the next few days.
Currently, a few light returns on radar over the Northwest Plateau
of Mohave County with no rain likely reaching the ground. A few
locations may see a shower or rumble of thunder before everything
pushes into southern Utah early this evening. The ridge of high
pressure that has been in place over the ridge continues to be
pushed to the east and dampened by an approaching trough. The trough
will be will be responsible for the few degrees of cooling and to
provide an increase in winds late Friday afternoon and evening
across Inyo County and Esmeralda Counties. Gusty northwest winds
will then push further south and east into Nye and Lincoln Counties
Friday night. The next feature of note will be another ridge of high
pressure that will begin to build into the region beginning on
Saturday from the west and provide another upward trend in
temperatures beginning on Sunday. There is the potential for another
round of excessive heat watches/warnings as the ridge builds in and
we will be evaluating this in the near term. As the ridge pushes
further east by Monday a southeasterly flow and a westward moving
inverted trough moving across Arizona will aid in trying to provide
an increase in moisture into the deserts on Monday through
Wednesday. I have increased PoPs quite modestly at this point but
may need to increase further as confidence increases.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwest winds expected to remain gusty
into this evening with speeds generally between 10-20 kts. Local
models are indicating that wind speeds may increase between 02Z-06Z
with gusts up to 30 kts. After 06Z southwest winds are expected to
be around 8-10 kts which will continue into the morning. Light winds
expected between 12-16Z with winds then shifting to the east-
southeast around 8-10 kts. Very hot daytime temperatures will lead
to high density altitude concerns through the end of the week.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...VFR through the period. Strong south to southwest flow
(speeds 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts) expected across much of the
region into this evening. West winds across western San Bernardino
County are forecasted to increase after 01Z with speeds between 20-
30 kts. Generally terrain driven winds up to 15 kts over most areas
Thursday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Discussion...Czyzyk
Aviation...Gorelow

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




000
FXUS65 KVEF 230404
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
904 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue for the next
week. Temperatures will begin to trend upward again by Sunday as
another ridge of high pressure builds into the region. As the ridge
pushes further east on Monday moisture will try to begin to seep
into the deserts.
&&

.UPDATE...The Excessive Heat Warning was allowed to expire on time
this evening. The short range forecast is in good shape at this hour
and no updates are planned. -Wolcott-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.Discussion...Today through next Wednesday.

The excessive heat warning will end this evening across the area,
but temperatures will only lower by a few degrees the next few days.
Currently, a few light returns on radar over the Northwest Plateau
of Mohave County with no rain likely reaching the ground. A few
locations may see a shower or rumble of thunder before everything
pushes into southern Utah early this evening. The ridge of high
pressure that has been in place over the ridge continues to be
pushed to the east and dampened by an approaching trough. The trough
will be will be responsible for the few degrees of cooling and to
provide an increase in winds late Friday afternoon and evening
across Inyo County and Esmeralda Counties. Gusty northwest winds
will then push further south and east into Nye and Lincoln Counties
Friday night. The next feature of note will be another ridge of high
pressure that will begin to build into the region beginning on
Saturday from the west and provide another upward trend in
temperatures beginning on Sunday. There is the potential for another
round of excessive heat watches/warnings as the ridge builds in and
we will be evaluating this in the near term. As the ridge pushes
further east by Monday a southeasterly flow and a westward moving
inverted trough moving across Arizona will aid in trying to provide
an increase in moisture into the deserts on Monday through
Wednesday. I have increased PoPs quite modestly at this point but
may need to increase further as confidence increases.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwest winds expected to remain gusty
into this evening with speeds generally between 10-20 kts. Local
models are indicating that wind speeds may increase between 02Z-06Z
with gusts up to 30 kts. After 06Z southwest winds are expected to
be around 8-10 kts which will continue into the morning. Light winds
expected between 12-16Z with winds then shifting to the east-
southeast around 8-10 kts. Very hot daytime temperatures will lead
to high density altitude concerns through the end of the week.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...VFR through the period. Strong south to southwest flow
(speeds 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts) expected across much of the
region into this evening. West winds across western San Bernardino
County are forecasted to increase after 01Z with speeds between 20-
30 kts. Generally terrain driven winds up to 15 kts over most areas
Thursday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Discussion...Czyzyk
Aviation...Gorelow

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter




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