Home > Products > State Listing > Nevada Data
Latest:
 AFDVEF |  AFDLKN |  AFDREV |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KVEF 012232 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVE UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CONVERGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIFT THE LOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ACROSS INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS  THE REGION FROM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ACCORDINGLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE A
DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 012232 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVE UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CONVERGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIFT THE LOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ACROSS INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS  THE REGION FROM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ACCORDINGLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE A
DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 012232 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVE UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CONVERGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIFT THE LOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ACROSS INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS  THE REGION FROM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ACCORDINGLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE A
DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 012232 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVE UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CONVERGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIFT THE LOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ACROSS INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS  THE REGION FROM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ACCORDINGLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE A
DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 012219
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TRENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVE UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CONVERGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIFT THE LOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ACROSS INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS  THE REGION FROM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ACCORDINGLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE A
DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 012219
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TRENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVE UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CONVERGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIFT THE LOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ACROSS INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS  THE REGION FROM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ACCORDINGLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE A
DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KLKN 012110
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON, THIS TIME
FAVORING THE SW CWA. WITH THE LOSS OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM, AND A
DEGRADED MOISTURE SUPPLY, THUNDERSTORMS WERE MUCH SLOWER TO GET
GOING TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM, BUT
TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY WHERE DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD (PW DOWN TO 1/2 INCH PER 12Z GFS).

ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE IMPROVES MARGINALLY ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
VERY STRONG MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD, NEAR SAN DIEGO SATURDAY, AND ENTERING SOUTHERN
NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FOCUSING ON AREAS
WHERE NAM/GFS INSTABILITY FIELDS OVERLAP. ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL BOTH DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME IS WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS MOST
LIKELY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL FORCING OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
FROM THE SOUTH, INTERACTING WITH A STRONG INJECTION OF RICH
MONSOON MOISTURE, 12Z GFS SUGGESTS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA BY SUNDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FROM 12Z ECMWF, PLACING ITS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
TONOPAH LATE SUNDAY, AND STRONG LIFT OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE 48 HOUR WINDOW, DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL
NEVADA. HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN NEVADA EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON MONDAY, AS DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY PROVIDING A JUICY ATMOSPHERE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WEAK TROUGHINESS AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 3/4 INCH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE AT THE KELY/KWMC TERMINALS AT ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF PW,
FORCING, AND ASSOCIATED COVERAGE. MOST STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY,
TREND TOWARDS WET, AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES WILL POSE A NEW FIRE START RISK.
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MORE PROBABLE ACROSS FWZ 467/468 (HUMBOLDT
COUNTY) WHERE PW IS MORE MARGINAL. MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES
ACROSS ALL FWZ BY SUNDAY EVENING, WITH PW APPROACHING/EXCEEDING
ONE INCH, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING LIKELY, INCLUDING NEAR ANY BURN
SCARS. CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH, AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. OTHERWISE, WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/91/91/99




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 012036
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
136 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TO I-80 AND ALL AREAS MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET STARTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL
CAP PRESENT ON THE 12Z KREV SOUNDING. STILL EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO
FIRE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND SOUTH IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES
TODAY. WITH THE ZEPHYR NOW KICKING IN ACROSS TAHOE, STORMS SHOULD
FIRE NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ZEPHYR IS ORGANIZED. EXPECT THE STORMS TO THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY AND PUSH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME SHOULD REMAIN FOR
SOME STORMS SOUTH OF A BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, THE MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER BAJA FURTHER WEST INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF STORMS
OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES FURTHER WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
UP TO I-80. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND, THE MOISTURE
INCREASE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT HEATING,
ONLY A SHORT BREAK WITH SUN WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FORECAST.

REGARDING THE SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH AND BALD FIRES, THAT WILL BE
AN ISSUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACTIVELY WITH SMOKE PRESENT IN NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY EXPECTED TO
BE CONTINUOUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA, SMOKE
WILL MOVE BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES WERE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ESPECIALLY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AS A WAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF THIS WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER,
MONDAY WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND EAST OF ALTERNATE 95. THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SUN
PRIOR TO DECENT FORCING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
WILL LIKELY BE CLOUD COVERED WHICH WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION EARLY
IN THE DAY. STILL, THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO, LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON MONDAY TO ANTICIPATE AREA
CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEAK, MODELS DIVERGE. THE EC HANGS ONTO A STRONGER WAVE
ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THE WAVE AND LIFTS IT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  IF THE GFS VERIFIES, THEN THE FORCING WILL BE
MUCH LESS. HOWEVER, THE EC SHOWS A SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG FORCING. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN AND WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE AFTER ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE TO
EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS.

OTHERWISE, LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
VERY STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY, BUT WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSH AWAY FROM THE SIERRA CREST BY MID TO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST
THREAT, WHICH MAY KICK OFF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF STORMS LIMITED
TO SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THEN
PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT STRONG WAVE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 3 MILES, NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AND ACROSS MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. BRONG/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 012036
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
136 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TO I-80 AND ALL AREAS MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET STARTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL
CAP PRESENT ON THE 12Z KREV SOUNDING. STILL EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO
FIRE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND SOUTH IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES
TODAY. WITH THE ZEPHYR NOW KICKING IN ACROSS TAHOE, STORMS SHOULD
FIRE NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ZEPHYR IS ORGANIZED. EXPECT THE STORMS TO THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY AND PUSH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME SHOULD REMAIN FOR
SOME STORMS SOUTH OF A BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, THE MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER BAJA FURTHER WEST INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF STORMS
OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES FURTHER WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
UP TO I-80. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND, THE MOISTURE
INCREASE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT HEATING,
ONLY A SHORT BREAK WITH SUN WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FORECAST.

REGARDING THE SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH AND BALD FIRES, THAT WILL BE
AN ISSUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACTIVELY WITH SMOKE PRESENT IN NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY EXPECTED TO
BE CONTINUOUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA, SMOKE
WILL MOVE BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES WERE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ESPECIALLY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AS A WAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF THIS WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER,
MONDAY WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND EAST OF ALTERNATE 95. THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SUN
PRIOR TO DECENT FORCING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
WILL LIKELY BE CLOUD COVERED WHICH WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION EARLY
IN THE DAY. STILL, THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO, LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON MONDAY TO ANTICIPATE AREA
CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEAK, MODELS DIVERGE. THE EC HANGS ONTO A STRONGER WAVE
ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THE WAVE AND LIFTS IT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  IF THE GFS VERIFIES, THEN THE FORCING WILL BE
MUCH LESS. HOWEVER, THE EC SHOWS A SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG FORCING. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN AND WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE AFTER ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE TO
EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS.

OTHERWISE, LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
VERY STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY, BUT WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSH AWAY FROM THE SIERRA CREST BY MID TO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST
THREAT, WHICH MAY KICK OFF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF STORMS LIMITED
TO SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THEN
PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT STRONG WAVE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 3 MILES, NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AND ACROSS MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. BRONG/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 012036
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
136 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TO I-80 AND ALL AREAS MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET STARTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL
CAP PRESENT ON THE 12Z KREV SOUNDING. STILL EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO
FIRE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND SOUTH IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES
TODAY. WITH THE ZEPHYR NOW KICKING IN ACROSS TAHOE, STORMS SHOULD
FIRE NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ZEPHYR IS ORGANIZED. EXPECT THE STORMS TO THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY AND PUSH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME SHOULD REMAIN FOR
SOME STORMS SOUTH OF A BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, THE MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER BAJA FURTHER WEST INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF STORMS
OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES FURTHER WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
UP TO I-80. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND, THE MOISTURE
INCREASE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT HEATING,
ONLY A SHORT BREAK WITH SUN WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FORECAST.

REGARDING THE SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH AND BALD FIRES, THAT WILL BE
AN ISSUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACTIVELY WITH SMOKE PRESENT IN NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY EXPECTED TO
BE CONTINUOUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA, SMOKE
WILL MOVE BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES WERE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ESPECIALLY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AS A WAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF THIS WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER,
MONDAY WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND EAST OF ALTERNATE 95. THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SUN
PRIOR TO DECENT FORCING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
WILL LIKELY BE CLOUD COVERED WHICH WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION EARLY
IN THE DAY. STILL, THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO, LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON MONDAY TO ANTICIPATE AREA
CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEAK, MODELS DIVERGE. THE EC HANGS ONTO A STRONGER WAVE
ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THE WAVE AND LIFTS IT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  IF THE GFS VERIFIES, THEN THE FORCING WILL BE
MUCH LESS. HOWEVER, THE EC SHOWS A SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG FORCING. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN AND WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE AFTER ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE TO
EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS.

OTHERWISE, LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
VERY STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY, BUT WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSH AWAY FROM THE SIERRA CREST BY MID TO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST
THREAT, WHICH MAY KICK OFF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF STORMS LIMITED
TO SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THEN
PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT STRONG WAVE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 3 MILES, NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AND ACROSS MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. BRONG/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 012036
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
136 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TO I-80 AND ALL AREAS MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET STARTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL
CAP PRESENT ON THE 12Z KREV SOUNDING. STILL EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO
FIRE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND SOUTH IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES
TODAY. WITH THE ZEPHYR NOW KICKING IN ACROSS TAHOE, STORMS SHOULD
FIRE NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ZEPHYR IS ORGANIZED. EXPECT THE STORMS TO THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY AND PUSH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME SHOULD REMAIN FOR
SOME STORMS SOUTH OF A BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, THE MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER BAJA FURTHER WEST INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF STORMS
OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES FURTHER WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
UP TO I-80. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND, THE MOISTURE
INCREASE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT HEATING,
ONLY A SHORT BREAK WITH SUN WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FORECAST.

REGARDING THE SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH AND BALD FIRES, THAT WILL BE
AN ISSUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACTIVELY WITH SMOKE PRESENT IN NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY EXPECTED TO
BE CONTINUOUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA, SMOKE
WILL MOVE BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES WERE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ESPECIALLY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AS A WAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF THIS WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER,
MONDAY WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND EAST OF ALTERNATE 95. THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SUN
PRIOR TO DECENT FORCING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
WILL LIKELY BE CLOUD COVERED WHICH WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION EARLY
IN THE DAY. STILL, THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO, LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON MONDAY TO ANTICIPATE AREA
CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEAK, MODELS DIVERGE. THE EC HANGS ONTO A STRONGER WAVE
ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THE WAVE AND LIFTS IT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  IF THE GFS VERIFIES, THEN THE FORCING WILL BE
MUCH LESS. HOWEVER, THE EC SHOWS A SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG FORCING. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN AND WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE AFTER ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE TO
EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS.

OTHERWISE, LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
VERY STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY, BUT WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSH AWAY FROM THE SIERRA CREST BY MID TO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST
THREAT, WHICH MAY KICK OFF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF STORMS LIMITED
TO SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THEN
PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT STRONG WAVE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 3 MILES, NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AND ACROSS MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. BRONG/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 011718
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1018 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 12Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BE OVER THE CA/NV LINE BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND BISHOP
AND WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. 12Z HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. POP/WX
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.

THE 12Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLOSED LOW MOVING UP THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE AND UPWARD FORCING BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND AREA RADARS
SHOWED THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AS OF 2 AM. SURFACE OBS SHOWED MODERATELY HUMID AIR
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S/ ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
THE CENTRAL CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE FAR NORTH
AND FAR SOUTH...SO FOCUSED PRECIP CHANCES THERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ARE SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWED VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN
THAT REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD /POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN WEST
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CENTER/...ADVECTING IN THE DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS. ONLY CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WHETHER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
MAY PUT A LID ON THINGS SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...A STORMY WEEKEND IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR. WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A HEADACHE TODAY...WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. IT COULD BE A DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 011718
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1018 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 12Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BE OVER THE CA/NV LINE BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND BISHOP
AND WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. 12Z HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. POP/WX
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.

THE 12Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLOSED LOW MOVING UP THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE AND UPWARD FORCING BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND AREA RADARS
SHOWED THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AS OF 2 AM. SURFACE OBS SHOWED MODERATELY HUMID AIR
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S/ ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
THE CENTRAL CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE FAR NORTH
AND FAR SOUTH...SO FOCUSED PRECIP CHANCES THERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ARE SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWED VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN
THAT REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD /POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN WEST
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CENTER/...ADVECTING IN THE DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS. ONLY CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WHETHER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
MAY PUT A LID ON THINGS SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...A STORMY WEEKEND IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR. WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A HEADACHE TODAY...WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. IT COULD BE A DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KLKN 011112
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
412 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HANGING TOUGH IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
SATELLITE AND REMOTE SENSING SITES ARE SHOWING VALUES FROM AROUND
0.60 TO 0.85 INCHES.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN HOW UNSTABLE THE AIR MASS IS TODAY. THERE
IS SOME MINOR DRYING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND THE GFS IS THE
MORE STABLE OF THE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTIONS AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED STABILITY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY AT KP68 AND KEKO. THINK THESE ARE
TOO LOW...AND WILL FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
ALSO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONVECT. NOT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE
SLOW..LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME STORMS. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT ONLY A FEW
LOCALES HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON...LIKE
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. BASED ON SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE...LACK OF A
FORCING MECHANISM...WILL GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
INSTEAD.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE
BEING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY...WITH THE
REGION UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION. MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA TODAY WITH REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR KEKO. ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KWMC...KELY
AND KTPH. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLOW AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS...SO THE EXPECTATION IS THERE THAT STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
WET. MAIN THREATS FOR TODAY`S STORMS INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW. SLIGHT DRYING TREND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50 IS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/96/96/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 011112
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
412 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HANGING TOUGH IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
SATELLITE AND REMOTE SENSING SITES ARE SHOWING VALUES FROM AROUND
0.60 TO 0.85 INCHES.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN HOW UNSTABLE THE AIR MASS IS TODAY. THERE
IS SOME MINOR DRYING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND THE GFS IS THE
MORE STABLE OF THE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTIONS AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED STABILITY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY AT KP68 AND KEKO. THINK THESE ARE
TOO LOW...AND WILL FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
ALSO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONVECT. NOT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE
SLOW..LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME STORMS. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT ONLY A FEW
LOCALES HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON...LIKE
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. BASED ON SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE...LACK OF A
FORCING MECHANISM...WILL GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
INSTEAD.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE
BEING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY...WITH THE
REGION UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION. MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA TODAY WITH REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR KEKO. ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KWMC...KELY
AND KTPH. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLOW AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS...SO THE EXPECTATION IS THERE THAT STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
WET. MAIN THREATS FOR TODAY`S STORMS INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW. SLIGHT DRYING TREND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50 IS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/96/96/86






000
FXUS65 KVEF 010930
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND AREA RADARS
SHOWED THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AS OF 2 AM. SURFACE OBS SHOWED MODERATELY HUMID AIR
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S/ ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
THE CENTRAL CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE FAR NORTH
AND FAR SOUTH...SO FOCUSED PRECIP CHANCES THERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ARE SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWED VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN
THAT REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD /POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN WEST
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CENTER/...ADVECTING IN THE DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS. ONLY CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WHETHER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
MAY PUT A LID ON THINGS SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...A STORMY WEEKEND IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR. WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A HEADACHE TODAY...WITH NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING GOING AROUND TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT COULD BE A DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

MORGAN/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 010930
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND AREA RADARS
SHOWED THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AS OF 2 AM. SURFACE OBS SHOWED MODERATELY HUMID AIR
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S/ ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
THE CENTRAL CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE FAR NORTH
AND FAR SOUTH...SO FOCUSED PRECIP CHANCES THERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ARE SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWED VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN
THAT REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD /POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN WEST
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CENTER/...ADVECTING IN THE DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS. ONLY CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WHETHER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
MAY PUT A LID ON THINGS SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...A STORMY WEEKEND IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.

FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR. WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A HEADACHE TODAY...WITH NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING GOING AROUND TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT COULD BE A DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&

MORGAN/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KREV 010914
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA WITH MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH INTO OREGON. ALTHOUGH A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THERE IS STILL ENOUGH COLUMN
MOISTURE AND HEATING TO ALLOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH
ABOUT 20-25KTS PRESENT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 45 MPH ALONG
WITH ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY TRANSPORT AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY FROM THE H-1 AND 3-7 DAY WILDFIRES.
PORTIONS OF MONO COUNTY MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED BY SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES SMOKE ACROSS THE SIERRA
CREST THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN
INDOORS WITH THE WINDOWS CLOSED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
MOTORISTS AND AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AND ALSO SOUTH THROUGH
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NEAR
140W WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW THIS FEATURE WILL COME
AND GO IN THE MODEL DATA.  THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST, THEN MOVE OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.  HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT
MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO REBUILD THE MOISTURE BELOW RIDGE LEVEL.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY, BUT WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSH AWAY FROM THE SIERRA CREST BY MID TO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST
THREAT, WHICH MAY KICK OFF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF STORMS LIMITED TO
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 3 MILES, NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AND ACROSS MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 010914
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA WITH MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH INTO OREGON. ALTHOUGH A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THERE IS STILL ENOUGH COLUMN
MOISTURE AND HEATING TO ALLOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH
ABOUT 20-25KTS PRESENT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 45 MPH ALONG
WITH ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY TRANSPORT AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY FROM THE H-1 AND 3-7 DAY WILDFIRES.
PORTIONS OF MONO COUNTY MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED BY SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES SMOKE ACROSS THE SIERRA
CREST THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN
INDOORS WITH THE WINDOWS CLOSED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
MOTORISTS AND AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AND ALSO SOUTH THROUGH
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NEAR
140W WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW THIS FEATURE WILL COME
AND GO IN THE MODEL DATA.  THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST, THEN MOVE OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.  HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT
MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO REBUILD THE MOISTURE BELOW RIDGE LEVEL.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY, BUT WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSH AWAY FROM THE SIERRA CREST BY MID TO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST
THREAT, WHICH MAY KICK OFF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF STORMS LIMITED TO
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 3 MILES, NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AND ACROSS MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 010200 AAB
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
700 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TRENDING DOWN OF STORMS AND CLOUDS. LATEST RADAR
SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE
CONVECTION NEAR SUSANVILLE FINALLY WINDING DOWN. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN SOUTHERN
LYON AND NORTHWEST MINERAL COUNTIES AS CONVERGENCE ALONG ZEPHYR
HELPS MAINTAIN STORMS THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM. HAVE PULLED THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND RENO-CARSON CITY AREA. UPDATES WILL ALSO
INCLUDE SMOKE FOR NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE H-1 AND DAY FIRES CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
SMOKE. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH FIRE WAS GETTING PUSHED OVER THE SIERRA
CREST INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF MONO COUNTY. WEB CAMS, AN AIR
QUALITY SITE AND THE PUBLIC INDICATE THE SMOKE IS QUITE HEAVY IN
THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SMOKE FOR
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 395
FROM MAMMOTH LAKES SOUTH TO BISHOP AND THE MAMMOTH YOSEMITE AIRPORT.
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR PERSISTENCE AND POSSIBLE DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS WITH
THE WINDOWS SHUT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MOTORISTS AND AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 010200 AAB
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
700 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TRENDING DOWN OF STORMS AND CLOUDS. LATEST RADAR
SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE
CONVECTION NEAR SUSANVILLE FINALLY WINDING DOWN. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN SOUTHERN
LYON AND NORTHWEST MINERAL COUNTIES AS CONVERGENCE ALONG ZEPHYR
HELPS MAINTAIN STORMS THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM. HAVE PULLED THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND RENO-CARSON CITY AREA. UPDATES WILL ALSO
INCLUDE SMOKE FOR NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE H-1 AND DAY FIRES CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
SMOKE. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH FIRE WAS GETTING PUSHED OVER THE SIERRA
CREST INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF MONO COUNTY. WEB CAMS, AN AIR
QUALITY SITE AND THE PUBLIC INDICATE THE SMOKE IS QUITE HEAVY IN
THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SMOKE FOR
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 395
FROM MAMMOTH LAKES SOUTH TO BISHOP AND THE MAMMOTH YOSEMITE AIRPORT.
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR PERSISTENCE AND POSSIBLE DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS WITH
THE WINDOWS SHUT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MOTORISTS AND AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 010101
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
600 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING PRETTY
MUCH WHERE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA AND IN
LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIT MORE
OPAQUENESS THAN FORECAST. SAME STORY WITH HIGH CLOUDS BLOWING OFF
THUNDERSTORM TOPS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. I
UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WERE IGNITING OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA AIDED
BY A CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WESTERN UTAH AND ALSO A JET STREAK
ORIENTED OVER UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING THE SHEEP
RANGE...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
STORM COVERAGE WAS BECOMING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE OVER THE ARIZONA RIM
COUNTRY AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE STORMS WILL BACKBUILD
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS SLOW TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BRING FEWER THUNDERSTORMS BUT STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL BE TURNED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IS
FORECAST TO LIFT UP TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY THEN HEAD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND I WOULD EXPECT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING POP/WX AND TEMP TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING MAY GIVE WAY TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING DOWN FROM LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PEACH SPRINGS
AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH MAY FAVOR RUNWAY CONFIG 4.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. SCT-BKN BASES AROUND 12-15 KFT MSL. DIURNAL WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 010101
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
600 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING PRETTY
MUCH WHERE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA AND IN
LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIT MORE
OPAQUENESS THAN FORECAST. SAME STORY WITH HIGH CLOUDS BLOWING OFF
THUNDERSTORM TOPS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. I
UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WERE IGNITING OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA AIDED
BY A CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WESTERN UTAH AND ALSO A JET STREAK
ORIENTED OVER UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING THE SHEEP
RANGE...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
STORM COVERAGE WAS BECOMING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE OVER THE ARIZONA RIM
COUNTRY AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE STORMS WILL BACKBUILD
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS SLOW TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BRING FEWER THUNDERSTORMS BUT STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL BE TURNED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IS
FORECAST TO LIFT UP TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY THEN HEAD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND I WOULD EXPECT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING POP/WX AND TEMP TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING MAY GIVE WAY TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING DOWN FROM LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PEACH SPRINGS
AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH MAY FAVOR RUNWAY CONFIG 4.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. SCT-BKN BASES AROUND 12-15 KFT MSL. DIURNAL WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KREV 312323 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
423 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH FIRE WAS GETTING PUSHED OVER THE SIERRA
CREST INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF MONO COUNTY. WEB CAMS, AN AIR
QUALITY SITE AND THE PUBLIC INDICATE THE SMOKE IS QUITE HEAVY IN
THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SMOKE FOR
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 395
FROM MAMMOTH LAKES SOUTH TO BISHOP AND THE MAMMOTH YOSEMITE AIRPORT.
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR PERSISTENCE AND POSSIBLE DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS WITH
THE WINDOWS SHUT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MOTORISTS AND AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 312323 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
423 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH FIRE WAS GETTING PUSHED OVER THE SIERRA
CREST INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF MONO COUNTY. WEB CAMS, AN AIR
QUALITY SITE AND THE PUBLIC INDICATE THE SMOKE IS QUITE HEAVY IN
THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SMOKE FOR
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 395
FROM MAMMOTH LAKES SOUTH TO BISHOP AND THE MAMMOTH YOSEMITE AIRPORT.
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR PERSISTENCE AND POSSIBLE DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS WITH
THE WINDOWS SHUT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MOTORISTS AND AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 312220
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WERE IGNITING OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA AIDED
BY A CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WESTERN UTAH AND ALSO A JET STREAK
ORIENTED OVER UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING THE SHEEP
RANGE...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
STORM COVERAGE WAS BECOMING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE OVER THE ARIZONA RIM
COUNTRY AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE STORMS WILL BACKBUILD
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS SLOW TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BRING FEWER THUNDERSTORMS BUT STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL BE TURNED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IS
FORECAST TO LIFT UP TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY THEN HEAD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND I WOULD EXPECT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING POP/WX AND TEMP TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING MAY GIVE WAY TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING DOWN FROM LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PEACH SPRINGS
AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH MAY FAVOR RUNWAY CONFIG 4.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. SCT-BKN BASES AROUND 12-15 KFT MSL. DIURNAL WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 312220
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WERE IGNITING OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA AIDED
BY A CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WESTERN UTAH AND ALSO A JET STREAK
ORIENTED OVER UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING THE SHEEP
RANGE...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
STORM COVERAGE WAS BECOMING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE OVER THE ARIZONA RIM
COUNTRY AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE STORMS WILL BACKBUILD
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS SLOW TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BRING FEWER THUNDERSTORMS BUT STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL BE TURNED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IS
FORECAST TO LIFT UP TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY THEN HEAD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND I WOULD EXPECT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING POP/WX AND TEMP TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING MAY GIVE WAY TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING DOWN FROM LINCOLN
COUNTY TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PEACH SPRINGS
AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH MAY FAVOR RUNWAY CONFIG 4.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. SCT-BKN BASES AROUND 12-15 KFT MSL. DIURNAL WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KREV 312104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 312104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 312104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 312104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KLKN 312020
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
120 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, AS REMNANT
TROPICAL VORTICITY MAX OVER NYE COUNTY INTERACTS WITH PLENTIFUL
MONSOON MOISTURE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING, WITH RADAR DATA THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY
INDICATING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR, AND CB
TOPS TO 60K FEET. OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON VIRTUALLY ALL PEAKS. AFTER
STORMS INITIATE ON/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, STORM MOTION IS SLOW
AND ERRATIC, AND STORM/FLASH FLOODING OUTCOME WILL BE BASED ON
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO FORMING IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ALL ZONES.
PW IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS A BIT LESS, SO FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY IN
NW NEVADA. PW UP TO 1.1 INCH ACROSS WHITE PINE/NYE COUNTIES, WHERE
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST. STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50-60 MPH.

FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS NEVADA AFTER
NOON. 12Z NAM SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS THE CWA, AND INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE POP GRIDS MORE INTO
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. INSTABILITY FIELDS FROM NAM/GFS ARE
EXTENSIVE, SUGGESTING ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER FROM TODAY`S
CONVECTION AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD DEBRIS. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT
ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY, BUT DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW. FORCING WILL BE LESS ON FRIDAY, AS THE TROPICAL VORT
MAX DEPARTS EAST, AND MOISTURE/PW LEVELS DEGRADE SOME AS WELL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER CROP OF CONVECTION, BUT FEEL FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD
BE LESS ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME FLASH
FLOODING, SO FORECAST SHIFT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO MAKE THE CALL IF
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

SATURDAY...MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH MOISTURE QUALITY AGAIN
RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. GFS PROGS STRONG INSTABILITY EAST
OF WINNEMUCCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFTED INDEX
FIELDS. 12Z NAM GOES GANGBUSTERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE POP GRIDS FOR ALL ZONES, AND FURTHER
INCREASES MAY BE NEEDED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MAKE ANOTHER DAY-TO-DAY
DECISION IF ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY ON SATURDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS WELL WHERE THE LI`S -2 OR LOWER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH LAL OF 4-5. CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
PRODUCING WETTING RAINS AT MOST LOCALES, SO CONCERN FOR NEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS IS LIMITED, BUT SOME NEW STARTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/87/87/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 312020
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
120 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, AS REMNANT
TROPICAL VORTICITY MAX OVER NYE COUNTY INTERACTS WITH PLENTIFUL
MONSOON MOISTURE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING, WITH RADAR DATA THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY
INDICATING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR, AND CB
TOPS TO 60K FEET. OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON VIRTUALLY ALL PEAKS. AFTER
STORMS INITIATE ON/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, STORM MOTION IS SLOW
AND ERRATIC, AND STORM/FLASH FLOODING OUTCOME WILL BE BASED ON
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO FORMING IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ALL ZONES.
PW IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS A BIT LESS, SO FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY IN
NW NEVADA. PW UP TO 1.1 INCH ACROSS WHITE PINE/NYE COUNTIES, WHERE
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST. STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50-60 MPH.

FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS NEVADA AFTER
NOON. 12Z NAM SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS THE CWA, AND INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE POP GRIDS MORE INTO
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. INSTABILITY FIELDS FROM NAM/GFS ARE
EXTENSIVE, SUGGESTING ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER FROM TODAY`S
CONVECTION AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD DEBRIS. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT
ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY, BUT DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW. FORCING WILL BE LESS ON FRIDAY, AS THE TROPICAL VORT
MAX DEPARTS EAST, AND MOISTURE/PW LEVELS DEGRADE SOME AS WELL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER CROP OF CONVECTION, BUT FEEL FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD
BE LESS ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME FLASH
FLOODING, SO FORECAST SHIFT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO MAKE THE CALL IF
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

SATURDAY...MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH MOISTURE QUALITY AGAIN
RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. GFS PROGS STRONG INSTABILITY EAST
OF WINNEMUCCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFTED INDEX
FIELDS. 12Z NAM GOES GANGBUSTERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE POP GRIDS FOR ALL ZONES, AND FURTHER
INCREASES MAY BE NEEDED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MAKE ANOTHER DAY-TO-DAY
DECISION IF ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY ON SATURDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS WELL WHERE THE LI`S -2 OR LOWER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH LAL OF 4-5. CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
PRODUCING WETTING RAINS AT MOST LOCALES, SO CONCERN FOR NEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS IS LIMITED, BUT SOME NEW STARTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/87/87/99






000
FXUS65 KVEF 311712
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINCOLN COUNTY COUNTY WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REST OF THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CIRCULATION TRAVERSING CENTRAL NEVADA COMBINED WITH
THE JET STREAK SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY AS SURFACE HEATING PERSISTS. 12Z HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH OUTFLOWS PROBABLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUTFLOW FROM A COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO LAST NIGHT WAS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTM COVERAGE UPWARD FOR THESE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEVADA HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED
NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER CIRRUS.

THE DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST. OTHERWISE,
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ANCHORED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FROM
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO A GULF SURGE OR FROM OUTFLOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM A MCS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THAT MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE THE PRIMER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BROAD UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE MOVING NORTH UP THE PENINSULA
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO THE MIX ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THIS IS JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS
FROM ANY MCS`S TO OUR SOUTH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY TRUMP ANY CLOUDINESS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOT
CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS ALSO
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS LAS VEGAS
IN THE LOW 90S WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 ON THE HIGH END.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TODAY OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SCT-BKN
BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PIERCE/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 311712
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINCOLN COUNTY COUNTY WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REST OF THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CIRCULATION TRAVERSING CENTRAL NEVADA COMBINED WITH
THE JET STREAK SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY AS SURFACE HEATING PERSISTS. 12Z HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH OUTFLOWS PROBABLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUTFLOW FROM A COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO LAST NIGHT WAS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTM COVERAGE UPWARD FOR THESE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEVADA HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED
NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER CIRRUS.

THE DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST. OTHERWISE,
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ANCHORED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FROM
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO A GULF SURGE OR FROM OUTFLOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM A MCS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THAT MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE THE PRIMER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BROAD UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE MOVING NORTH UP THE PENINSULA
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO THE MIX ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THIS IS JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS
FROM ANY MCS`S TO OUR SOUTH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY TRUMP ANY CLOUDINESS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOT
CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS ALSO
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS LAS VEGAS
IN THE LOW 90S WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 ON THE HIGH END.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TODAY OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SCT-BKN
BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PIERCE/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 311712
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINCOLN COUNTY COUNTY WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REST OF THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CIRCULATION TRAVERSING CENTRAL NEVADA COMBINED WITH
THE JET STREAK SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY AS SURFACE HEATING PERSISTS. 12Z HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH OUTFLOWS PROBABLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUTFLOW FROM A COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO LAST NIGHT WAS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTM COVERAGE UPWARD FOR THESE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEVADA HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED
NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER CIRRUS.

THE DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST. OTHERWISE,
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ANCHORED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FROM
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO A GULF SURGE OR FROM OUTFLOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM A MCS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THAT MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE THE PRIMER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BROAD UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE MOVING NORTH UP THE PENINSULA
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO THE MIX ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THIS IS JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS
FROM ANY MCS`S TO OUR SOUTH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY TRUMP ANY CLOUDINESS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOT
CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS ALSO
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS LAS VEGAS
IN THE LOW 90S WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 ON THE HIGH END.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TODAY OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SCT-BKN
BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PIERCE/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 311712
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINCOLN COUNTY COUNTY WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REST OF THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CIRCULATION TRAVERSING CENTRAL NEVADA COMBINED WITH
THE JET STREAK SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY AS SURFACE HEATING PERSISTS. 12Z HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH OUTFLOWS PROBABLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUTFLOW FROM A COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO LAST NIGHT WAS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTM COVERAGE UPWARD FOR THESE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEVADA HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED
NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER CIRRUS.

THE DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST. OTHERWISE,
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ANCHORED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FROM
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO A GULF SURGE OR FROM OUTFLOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM A MCS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THAT MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE THE PRIMER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BROAD UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE MOVING NORTH UP THE PENINSULA
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO THE MIX ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THIS IS JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS
FROM ANY MCS`S TO OUR SOUTH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY TRUMP ANY CLOUDINESS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOT
CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS ALSO
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS LAS VEGAS
IN THE LOW 90S WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 ON THE HIGH END.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TODAY OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SCT-BKN
BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PIERCE/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KLKN 311047
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
347 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SLOW STORM SPEEDS EXPECTED...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SITUATION HAS QUIETED DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE STILL PREVALENT...STILL GETTING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO FROM
CELLS POPPING UP IN LANDER/EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE AGAIN QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ALSO...CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
HIGHER IN THE EAST...WITH READINGS IN THE EAST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90
INCHES PER SUOMINET SITE.

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FLOW
THAT IS CENTERED AROUND MID-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS VORT LOBE
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME
TODAY. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT COULD BLOT OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AT
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S...AND THESE SHOULD BE REACHED. 700-500MB STORM
SPEEDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. GFS
K-INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE 35-40C RANGE. LAPSE RATES ARE GOING TO
BE ABOVE 7C/KM WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -1C AND -3C. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH WITH NO CHANGES. DID LOOK AT ADDING HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...BUT THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME STORMS...ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY SLIGHTLY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AS STORM SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BE 0-5 KNOTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTS
FOR SATURDAY.

FOR ALL AFTERNOONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND.
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA HOWEVER REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW STORM
SPEEDS WILL HELP STORMS TO PUT DOWN MORE RAINFALL. MAIN THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
DOES NOT COMPLETELY DRY OUT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

86/96/96/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 311047
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
347 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SLOW STORM SPEEDS EXPECTED...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SITUATION HAS QUIETED DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE STILL PREVALENT...STILL GETTING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO FROM
CELLS POPPING UP IN LANDER/EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE AGAIN QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ALSO...CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
HIGHER IN THE EAST...WITH READINGS IN THE EAST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90
INCHES PER SUOMINET SITE.

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FLOW
THAT IS CENTERED AROUND MID-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS VORT LOBE
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME
TODAY. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT COULD BLOT OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AT
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S...AND THESE SHOULD BE REACHED. 700-500MB STORM
SPEEDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. GFS
K-INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE 35-40C RANGE. LAPSE RATES ARE GOING TO
BE ABOVE 7C/KM WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -1C AND -3C. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH WITH NO CHANGES. DID LOOK AT ADDING HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...BUT THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME STORMS...ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY SLIGHTLY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AS STORM SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BE 0-5 KNOTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTS
FOR SATURDAY.

FOR ALL AFTERNOONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND.
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA HOWEVER REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW STORM
SPEEDS WILL HELP STORMS TO PUT DOWN MORE RAINFALL. MAIN THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
DOES NOT COMPLETELY DRY OUT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

86/96/96/86






000
FXUS65 KVEF 311030
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN UNDER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEVADA HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED
NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER CIRRUS.

THE DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST. OTHERWISE,
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ANCHORED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FROM
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO A GULF SURGE OR FROM OUTFLOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM A MCS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THAT MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE THE PRIMER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BROAD UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE MOVING NORTH UP THE PENINSULA
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO THE MIX ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THIS IS JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS
FROM ANY MCS`S TO OUR SOUTH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY TRUMP ANY CLOUDINESS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOT
CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS ALSO
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS LAS VEGAS
IN THE LOW 90S WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 ON THE HIGH END.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WEST/NORTHWEST WIND WILL DECREASE AND GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GOING MORE
EASTERLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TODAY OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SCT-BKN
BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

PIERCE/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 311030
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN UNDER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEVADA HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED
NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER CIRRUS.

THE DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST. OTHERWISE,
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ANCHORED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FROM
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO A GULF SURGE OR FROM OUTFLOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM A MCS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THAT MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE THE PRIMER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BROAD UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE MOVING NORTH UP THE PENINSULA
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO THE MIX ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THIS IS JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS
FROM ANY MCS`S TO OUR SOUTH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY TRUMP ANY CLOUDINESS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOT
CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS ALSO
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS LAS VEGAS
IN THE LOW 90S WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 ON THE HIGH END.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM ARIZONA/NORTHERN
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING IN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-9 G/KG
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS] TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
ADDED DYNAMICS STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE...THIS IS OFTEN
THE BIG QUESTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA ABOVE 500MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS NOT AT ALL
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DEVELOPING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGREEABLE AND WAS LEANED ON MORE HEAVILY. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING.
FOR THE MOMENT HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHEAR [MAINLY SUNDAY] COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WEST/NORTHWEST WIND WILL DECREASE AND GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GOING MORE
EASTERLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TODAY OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SCT-BKN
BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

PIERCE/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KREV 310959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING
TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING
NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SWATH OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AS A WEAK VORTICITY IMPULSE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 30
DEGREES SO LIKELY MUCH OF THE RETURNS ARE FALLING AS VIRGA. CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN THESE
LOCATIONS BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FILTER IN ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY SO EXPECTING THE REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO INITIATE OVER THE SIERRA THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE CAPES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON
THE DECREASE THROUGH WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED
STORMS ON FRIDAY BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND
RANGE WITH CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN CHURCHILL,
PERSHING, AND MINERAL COUNTY ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES
WILL ALSO RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY AND MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. FLOW ALOFT IS WILL BE VERY
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEVADA DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME CHANCES REMAIN FOR
CONVECTION IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
THE SIERRA CREST IN THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES. EARLY NEXT WEEK
(AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY), THE OFFSHORE TROUGH RETROGRADES
SOUTHWESTWARD, ALLOWING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE SIERRA WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEPING BACK INTO THE
RENO-TAHOE AREA. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO
CA/NV LATE IN THE WEEK, FURTHER ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP-KTRK-KTVL.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF KSVE, AND SOUTH OF
KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL
ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 310959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING
TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING
NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SWATH OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AS A WEAK VORTICITY IMPULSE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 30
DEGREES SO LIKELY MUCH OF THE RETURNS ARE FALLING AS VIRGA. CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN THESE
LOCATIONS BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FILTER IN ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY SO EXPECTING THE REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO INITIATE OVER THE SIERRA THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE CAPES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON
THE DECREASE THROUGH WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED
STORMS ON FRIDAY BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND
RANGE WITH CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN CHURCHILL,
PERSHING, AND MINERAL COUNTY ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES
WILL ALSO RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY AND MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. FLOW ALOFT IS WILL BE VERY
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEVADA DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME CHANCES REMAIN FOR
CONVECTION IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
THE SIERRA CREST IN THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES. EARLY NEXT WEEK
(AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY), THE OFFSHORE TROUGH RETROGRADES
SOUTHWESTWARD, ALLOWING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE SIERRA WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEPING BACK INTO THE
RENO-TAHOE AREA. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO
CA/NV LATE IN THE WEEK, FURTHER ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP-KTRK-KTVL.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF KSVE, AND SOUTH OF
KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL
ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KVEF 310433
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
933 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER
PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DID MAKE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO THE NEAR TERM AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION AROUND SEARCHLIGHT...AND NORTHWEST
OUTFLOW WINDS THAT PUSHED ACROSS CLARK...SAN BERNARDINO...AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SO THE ONLY
MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT IS ACROSS OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AND TRACKING ACROSS THAT
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND BE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE DIURNAL
PATTERNS STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND ONLY SCT BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL
WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
318 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM HERNAN IS
PULLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THESE CELLS.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER INYO COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE SAME AREA AS
TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ZONES
FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
NORTHWARD. A LITTLE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL BREAK AFTER FRIDAY AND THE 12Z MODELS
SUPPORT THE TRENDS DETAILED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WELL GET READY FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF JUICIER MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
THE CLASSIC SUMMERTIME FOUR CORNERS HIGH SETS BACK UP. AT LEAST
INITIALLY, IT APPEARS THAT WHATEVER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DEVELOP
COURTESY OF ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OR BE TERRAIN
INDUCED. THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE STABLE OVER THE WESTERN
CWFA AND THUS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO TRIM POPS THERE
DOWN. PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1.50 INCHES WILL MEAN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A LOT OF JUICE AND THUS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT IN STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR SOME SORT OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM OR LOBE HEADS
NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA AND CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
A SLOWER EXIT ON THE MODELS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN
ON THE BIG 4 MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, GEM AND
DGEX) AND THIS TRIGGER FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AVAILABLE SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AT NIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED AGAIN TO SHOW A
BETTER UPTICK IN ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXISTS AS THIS WOULD
LIMIT HEATING AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND LOW-GRADE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING SUNDAY, ACTIVITY
WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOWN BY THE GFS TO EXCEED 20 KTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWFA. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS COULD EASILY HOLD TEMPS
DOWN ANOTHER 6-8 DEGREES FROM WHAT IS FORECAST.

THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW A SLOWER EXIT TO THIS FEATURE KEEPING IT
OVER THE NORTHEAST CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY GIVING IT THE
BOOT. THUS POPS WERE RAISED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN
LINCOLN COUNTY. DRIER AIR SHOULD FINALLY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS IN THAT DIRECTION AND THIS SHOULD CUT BACK
ON THE COVERAGE OF STORMS OUT THAT WAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS, TEMPS
SHOULD TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 310433
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
933 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER
PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DID MAKE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES TO THE NEAR TERM AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION AROUND SEARCHLIGHT...AND NORTHWEST
OUTFLOW WINDS THAT PUSHED ACROSS CLARK...SAN BERNARDINO...AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SO THE ONLY
MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT IS ACROSS OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AND TRACKING ACROSS THAT
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND BE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE DIURNAL
PATTERNS STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND THE BEATTY/MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND ONLY SCT BASES AROUND 12-15KFT MSL. TYPICAL DIURNAL
WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
318 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM HERNAN IS
PULLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THESE CELLS.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER INYO COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE SAME AREA AS
TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ZONES
FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
NORTHWARD. A LITTLE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL BREAK AFTER FRIDAY AND THE 12Z MODELS
SUPPORT THE TRENDS DETAILED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WELL GET READY FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF JUICIER MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
THE CLASSIC SUMMERTIME FOUR CORNERS HIGH SETS BACK UP. AT LEAST
INITIALLY, IT APPEARS THAT WHATEVER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DEVELOP
COURTESY OF ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OR BE TERRAIN
INDUCED. THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE STABLE OVER THE WESTERN
CWFA AND THUS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO TRIM POPS THERE
DOWN. PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1.50 INCHES WILL MEAN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A LOT OF JUICE AND THUS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT IN STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR SOME SORT OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM OR LOBE HEADS
NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA AND CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
A SLOWER EXIT ON THE MODELS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN
ON THE BIG 4 MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, GEM AND
DGEX) AND THIS TRIGGER FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AVAILABLE SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AT NIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED AGAIN TO SHOW A
BETTER UPTICK IN ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXISTS AS THIS WOULD
LIMIT HEATING AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND LOW-GRADE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING SUNDAY, ACTIVITY
WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOWN BY THE GFS TO EXCEED 20 KTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWFA. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS COULD EASILY HOLD TEMPS
DOWN ANOTHER 6-8 DEGREES FROM WHAT IS FORECAST.

THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW A SLOWER EXIT TO THIS FEATURE KEEPING IT
OVER THE NORTHEAST CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY GIVING IT THE
BOOT. THUS POPS WERE RAISED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN
LINCOLN COUNTY. DRIER AIR SHOULD FINALLY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS IN THAT DIRECTION AND THIS SHOULD CUT BACK
ON THE COVERAGE OF STORMS OUT THAT WAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS, TEMPS
SHOULD TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 310040 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME EXTENSIVE THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE THE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS MINIMAL NOW. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO STRESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND KEEPING AN ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ABOVE DONNER LAKE EVEN THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED THERE. WILL KEEP IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT
FOR RUNOFF FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. DONNER LAKE ROSE ALMOST AN INCH
(O.84 INCH) FROM THE EARLIER STORMS. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
REMOVING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FALLON AND LOVELOCK WESTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS MORE ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
OSCILLATES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT DIFFER ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT SPECIFIC SMALLER FEATURES THAT MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LENDING TO A
MORE BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WILL SOMEWHAT SPARED AS FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
THUNDERSTORM COVER WILL EXPAND QUITE A BIT AND MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY
WITH STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT SHOWS THIS
FEATURE, WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL
SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. BOYD

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN MONDAY
WITH MOST STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL MAY
EXPERIENCE LATER THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH, INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AROUND 75% WHERE
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 310040 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME EXTENSIVE THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE THE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS MINIMAL NOW. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO STRESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND KEEPING AN ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ABOVE DONNER LAKE EVEN THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED THERE. WILL KEEP IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT
FOR RUNOFF FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. DONNER LAKE ROSE ALMOST AN INCH
(O.84 INCH) FROM THE EARLIER STORMS. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
REMOVING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FALLON AND LOVELOCK WESTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS MORE ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
OSCILLATES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT DIFFER ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT SPECIFIC SMALLER FEATURES THAT MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LENDING TO A
MORE BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WILL SOMEWHAT SPARED AS FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
THUNDERSTORM COVER WILL EXPAND QUITE A BIT AND MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY
WITH STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT SHOWS THIS
FEATURE, WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL
SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. BOYD

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN MONDAY
WITH MOST STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL MAY
EXPERIENCE LATER THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH, INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AROUND 75% WHERE
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities