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000
FXUS65 KLKN 241049
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
349 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A FEW NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY. HIGHER TERRAIN CERTAINLY WILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...BETTER THAN IN A LONG TIME...ON THE MAJOR AND MINOR
DETAILS OF THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST TOWARD NEVADA. MOISTURE IS THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT. THE EURO
HAS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS
LAGGING...NAM IS LIKE UNTO THE EURO IN STRUCTURE BUT APPEARS TO
MOVE OUT MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO
IN THE INTEREST OF CONSISTENCY. POPS ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH DESPITE
BEING IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE A DECENTLY
WIDESPREAD EVENT OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 7000 FEET. EVEN
SOME LOWER VALLEY FLOORS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY MAY SEE A SKIFF BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND A
WEAKENING JET STREAK CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
EXTENT OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL PASS ON TO
DAY SHIFT.

LAST...TRAJECTORIES OF WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING VECTORS OUT
OF THE WESTERN NEVADA SALT FLATS AND THIS COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA...AND
ELKO COUNTIES. IF IT ALSO RAINS/SNOWS...WE ALWAYS END UP WITH MUD
SHOWERS.

TEMPS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THEN MUCH COOLER SUNDAY.
BB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START
OUT WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE PUTS ALL
ENERGY EAST OF US BY SUNDAY EVENING SO GENERALLY DROPPED POPS AND
SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD GET RATHER COLD IF SKIES CLEAR
BUT NOTHING EXTREME FOR LATE OCTOBER. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE ALOFT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY SUNNY MONDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN RETURNING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

SHORTWAVE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
RISK SHOULD BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITH
CENTRAL NEVADA LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. WITH RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD BOUNCE BACK TO NORMALISH.

GFS AND ECMWF START TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS CENTERING THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH ALL THE
WAY OVER IN TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN ARIZONA. THIS OF
COURSE HAS IMPACTS UPSTREAM...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH CONSIDERABLY
FURTHER WEST ON THE ECMWF AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. THIS IS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK (GFS) AND DRY/MILD WEATHER CONTINUING (ECMWF). NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
THIS BIG DISCREPANCY. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VIS NEXT 24 HOURS ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KELY/KTPH. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93




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000
FXUS65 KREV 241016
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
316 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON TODAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG 130W WILL CREATE A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR A MODERATE FIRE THREAT ACROSS
WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING, AND WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT
LAKE TAHOE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE, WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BECAUSE RIDGE LEVEL WINDS ARE
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AND NOT DIRECTLY CROSS-BARRIER. NONETHELESS,
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN
SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST NV, FOR GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD ALSO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION.

RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM THE TAHOE
BASIN NORTHWARD. STORM TOTALS BY SUNDAY MORNING OF AROUND 0.20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, AND 0.25-0.50 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH FOR NORTHEAST CA INCLUDING PLUMAS AND
LASSEN COUNTIES, AND FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9000 FEET SATURDAY WILL LOWER TO
7000-7500 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW
LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. JCM/MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
I MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY MID-LATE WEEK. EARLY ON, THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE JET REMAINING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK AFTER A COOL DAY MONDAY.

LATE WEEK, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WINDIER AND WETTER ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE EC CUTS THE NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THESE RUNS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH EACH
OTHER THE PAST 36 HOURS WHEN THE GFS WAS RIDGY AND THE EC SHOWED THE
TROUGH. I BELIEVE THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. IT
SHOWS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
EC BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP
FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK. IF ANYTHING, I BELIEVE WE MAY BE UNDERDOING
IT JUST A BIT AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. LEFT TEMPS MILD AS WINDS AND
MIXING WILL OFFSET ANY COOLING ALOFT AT LEAST INITIALLY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS NEAR THE SIERRA. ANY LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
THE JET LIFTS NORTH.

SATURDAY, THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE. AFTER 12Z SAT, THE WINDS INCREASE WITH TURBULENCE AND
LLWS LIKELY WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT SW WINDS OF 25-30 KT AT THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
40-45 KTS AFT 15Z POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH 00Z SUN.

AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS, EXPECT SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA WITH
MTN OBSCN. THIS WILL BEGIN OVER WESTERN LASSEN BY 18Z AND SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEAST TO I-80 BY 00Z. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE
SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH WITH RH AROUND
10-15%. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY AS STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LASSEN COUNTY AROUND 18Z AND THROUGH THE
I-80 CORRIDOR NEAR 00Z AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BY 04Z.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 55 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. THE AREA OF BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 IN WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
TODAY NORTH OF I-80 SO IT IS LESS OF A CONCERN THERE. WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LONGEST, RH LOOKS TO
DROP TO 15-25%. COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO GUST ALONG THE HIGHWAY
95 CORRIDOR AS THE PEAK OF THE WINDS AND THE FRONTAL TIMING IS
IDEAL FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR NV ZONES 450, 453 AND 459. I
BELIEVE 453/459 STAND THE BEST CHANCE SINCE THEY WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LONGER, BUT 450 COULD HIT FOR A WHILE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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000
FXUS65 KVEF 240934
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 10
TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT IN THE
OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND EFFECTS WILL
BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA RIDGETOPS AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES WHERE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSHING ONTO THE LOWER EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OWENS VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS. BASED ON LOCAL HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NYE COUNTY AND THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS WELL BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
THAT A DECISION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THOSE AREAS WILL BE
PASSED ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE THROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE 76 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS.
THERE COULD BE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS AGREE THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER. I KEPT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
FLATTER RIDGE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING BUT STILL WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES. I BASICALLY WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...KEEPING THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE
RESULT IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND
SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
THEN BECOMING LIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10
KTS RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE
AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AT KBIH WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY BUT REPORTS OF STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND/OR DAMAGE WILL
BE NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SPOTTERS ON SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 240326 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
826 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -SALMEN-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...240 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 240326 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
826 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -SALMEN-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...240 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 240141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
641 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS DECREASING
A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE TAHOE BASIN BUT A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER EARLY INTO THE WRN NV BASIN AND RANGE. CLOUDS OVER THE
SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE PLUME
OVER THE NRN CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTH. LESSENING POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FAR NRN CWA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALSO DECREASING. AFTER A WARM AND
SUNNY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV WITH RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN 0.05 INCH PER HOUR.
THIS RAIN BAND WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND
PUSH FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, CLOUD COVER
WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, WITH FULL SUN AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGH ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NV, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95 FROM FALLON SOUTHWARD. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MIXING DOWN
TO LAKE TAHOE SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT STARTING
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY, AND ALSO FOR
NORTHWEST NV. AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS INCLUDING THE
RENO AIRPORT COULD RECEIVE THEIR STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WEAKENS WHEN IT REACHES THE SIERRA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OTHER RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE IN WESTERN LASSEN AND CENTRAL
PLUMAS COUNTIES, WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE. LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAHOE AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, WITH LITTLE
TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RENO-CARSON CITY
AREA.

AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY THE
TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. MJD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND IDAHO. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY OVER 7000 FEET
WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL BE MINIMAL
AND PREVIOUS RAINS SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT IMPACTS OVER AREA PASSES.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

LATER IN THE PERIOD, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE SPECTRUM AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DEGRADED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES, HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY
TRENDED TOWARDS CURRENT SOLUTIONS. PREVIOUS RUNS GENERALLY DEPICTED
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BY MID WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE ECMWF WHERE RIDGING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. HAVE BEGUN TO SHUNT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE SIERRA WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR SO BEFORE MAKING MORE
WHOLESALE CHANGES. BOYD

AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE FRIDAY PUSHING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER NORTH INTO OREGON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
COAST. SURFACE GUSTS IN THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHILE RIDGE GUSTS INCREASE TO
50 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER. EXPECT STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER
THE SIERRA AS RIDGE GUSTS EXCEED 80 KNOTS INDUCING TRAPPED LEE
WAVES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL SET UP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH GUSTS
THIS STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT ON NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL HANG ABOVE 8000 FEET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY BEFORE NOON AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP. FLYING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE IDEAL BY MONDAY
AS WINDS LESSEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VALLEYS/MID SLOPES WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN TODAY. ALSO, RIDGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR WORSENING HUMIDITIES THERE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERED HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WINDS ALOFT REMAINING ELEVATED, MID SLOPE
RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE POOR TO LOW END MODERATE IN SOME AREAS
(ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHORT PERIOD OF LOWERED HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MID SLOPES (AND SOME NORTH-SOUTH FACING
VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT), WHICH WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
HUMIDITIES SHOULD RISE WITH THE COLD FRONT, SO CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG. THEREFORE, PLAN ON
JUST HIGHLIGHTING IN THE PLANNING FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 232225
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALSO DECREASING. AFTER A WARM AND
SUNNY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV WITH RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN 0.05 INCH PER HOUR.
THIS RAIN BAND WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND
PUSH FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, CLOUD COVER
WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, WITH FULL SUN AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGH ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NV, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95 FROM FALLON SOUTHWARD. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MIXING DOWN
TO LAKE TAHOE SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT STARTING
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY, AND ALSO FOR
NORTHWEST NV. AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS INCLUDING THE
RENO AIRPORT COULD RECEIVE THEIR STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WEAKENS WHEN IT REACHES THE SIERRA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OTHER RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE IN WESTERN LASSEN AND CENTRAL
PLUMAS COUNTIES, WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE. LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAHOE AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, WITH LITTLE
TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RENO-CARSON CITY
AREA.

AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY THE
TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND IDAHO. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY OVER 7000 FEET
WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL BE MINIMAL
AND PREVIOUS RAINS SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT IMPACTS OVER AREA PASSES.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

LATER IN THE PERIOD, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE SPECTRUM AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DEGRADED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES, HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY
TRENDED TOWARDS CURRENT SOLUTIONS. PREVIOUS RUNS GENERALLY DEPICTED
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BY MID WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE ECMWF WHERE RIDGING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. HAVE BEGUN TO SHUNT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE SIERRA WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR SO BEFORE MAKING MORE
WHOLESALE CHANGES. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE FRIDAY PUSHING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER NORTH INTO OREGON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
COAST. SURFACE GUSTS IN THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHILE RIDGE GUSTS INCREASE TO
50 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER. EXPECT STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER
THE SIERRA AS RIDGE GUSTS EXCEED 80 KNOTS INDUCING TRAPPED LEE
WAVES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL SET UP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH GUSTS
THIS STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT ON NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL HANG ABOVE 8000 FEET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY BEFORE NOON AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP. FLYING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE IDEAL BY MONDAY
AS WINDS LESSEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VALLEYS/MID SLOPES WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN TODAY. ALSO, RIDGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR WORSENING HUMIDITIES THERE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERED HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WINDS ALOFT REMAINING ELEVATED, MID SLOPE
RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE POOR TO LOW END MODERATE IN SOME AREAS
(ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHORT PERIOD OF LOWERED HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MID SLOPES (AND SOME NORTH-SOUTH FACING
VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT), WHICH WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
HUMIDITIES SHOULD RISE WITH THE COLD FRONT, SO CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG. THEREFORE, PLAN ON
JUST HIGHLIGHTING IN THE PLANNING FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KVEF 232141
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 232141
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KLKN 232110
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MILD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
EXTREME WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO
HIGHLIGHTS YET AS WINDS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT AT THIS TIME...LOOKS
LIKE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 45 MPH IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE WEST. EXPECT THIS TO BE
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH TWO DISTINCT SURGES OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH F120 AND
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH F144. BUMPED UP THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY...WITH QPF EMPHASIS ON THE SHELDON NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. THESE AREAS CAN
EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DIP BELOW 6000 FEET
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DEPICT WEAK RIDGING
REBOUNDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN 2 DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER AND THEN THE NEXT QPF EPISODE WOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN QUICKER THAN ADVERTISED...IT WOULD BE VERY
FEASIBLE TO GET QPF WELL SOUTH OF I-80...BUT FOR NOW...THE MODELS
ARE PINGING INTO A NORTHERN CWA EVENT LATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND
KTPH FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH A PACIFIC STORM
MOVING INLAND...EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/97






000
FXUS65 KVEF 231630 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
928 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE
SHOWS STANDING WAVE CLOUD DOWNWIND OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD
TODAY/TONIGHT UPPER WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE STANDING WAVE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER CHANGES
NECESSARY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
155 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A COUPLE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, THE SKY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND UP INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER AT THE
MOMENT AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
BRUSHING NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIRES MODEL SHOWS A
POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
SATURDAY BUT KEEPS IT ANCHORED TO THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH NO
HINT OF STRONGER WINDS MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER SLOPES OR INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY. WILL MONITOR THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AREA REMAINING
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COOL US
DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE SATURDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LATE SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES
HOLD. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BALANCED BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
COMBINE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN TODAY BUT
MAY FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO FORCE A CONFIGURATION CHANGE.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH...CLEAR
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT KBIH
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SALMEN/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 231000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN UPDATES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE TO INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NV.
HRRR MODEL SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS PLUMAS
COUNTY TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. AMOUNTS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY HAVE BEEN
CLOSE TO 0.10 INCHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.

A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-50 MPH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS. RIDGE GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT, AROUND 50-60 MPH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 60-80 MPH FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT AND WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN
VALLEYS TO 40-50 MPH AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS 80-100 MPH OR HIGHER.

THIS COLD FRONT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING COULD
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET NORTH OF I-80, AND TO 7000-8000 FEET
SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO IMPACT
MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 7000 FEET STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SUNDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WE DID BUMP POPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING BUT
WINDING DOWN. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 1/10 INCH.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, CLOSE TO THE OREGON BORDER.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A SLOW WARMUP. WE DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING NORTHERN AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TUE-WED. THIS IS A RATHER WEAK
FEATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CHANGING ERRATICALLY THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND WE HAVE DISREGARDED THE UPPER RIDGE DEPICTED IN ITS
DETERMINISTIC RUN. ITS PREVIOUS 18Z RUN AND SEVERAL OF ITS CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EC/GEM, THE ECMWF BEING
PERSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CLOUD DECKS COULD
LOWER TO BKN-OVC030 AT TIMES IN MODERATE RAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.

ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS. SOME LEE
SIDE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AS SIERRA RIDGES GUST TO 50KT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40KT OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 231000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN UPDATES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE TO INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NV.
HRRR MODEL SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS PLUMAS
COUNTY TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. AMOUNTS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY HAVE BEEN
CLOSE TO 0.10 INCHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.

A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-50 MPH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS. RIDGE GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT, AROUND 50-60 MPH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 60-80 MPH FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT AND WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN
VALLEYS TO 40-50 MPH AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS 80-100 MPH OR HIGHER.

THIS COLD FRONT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING COULD
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET NORTH OF I-80, AND TO 7000-8000 FEET
SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO IMPACT
MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 7000 FEET STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SUNDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WE DID BUMP POPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING BUT
WINDING DOWN. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 1/10 INCH.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, CLOSE TO THE OREGON BORDER.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A SLOW WARMUP. WE DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING NORTHERN AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TUE-WED. THIS IS A RATHER WEAK
FEATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CHANGING ERRATICALLY THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND WE HAVE DISREGARDED THE UPPER RIDGE DEPICTED IN ITS
DETERMINISTIC RUN. ITS PREVIOUS 18Z RUN AND SEVERAL OF ITS CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EC/GEM, THE ECMWF BEING
PERSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CLOUD DECKS COULD
LOWER TO BKN-OVC030 AT TIMES IN MODERATE RAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.

ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS. SOME LEE
SIDE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AS SIERRA RIDGES GUST TO 50KT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40KT OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KLKN 230923
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
223 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD THICK CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ANY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NW NEVADA THIS MORNING, WITH
THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY, BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND MAINLY NW OF WINNEMUCCA.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AT 15-25 MPH, AND DESPITE THE CLOUDS, THESE WINDS WILL HELP CONTINUE
THE WARMING TREND WITH MOST VALLEYS SURPASSING 70 DEGREES.

FRIDAY...PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE SW U.S., WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING SE OF NEVADA, AND A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS IS A WARM PATTERN FOR NEVADA,
WITH WARM SW WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S TO BE COMMON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH THE WARMEST LOCALES CRACKING 80 DEGREES. WENT FOR A
HIGH OF 77 AT THE ELKO AIRPORT, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE RECORD HIGH
FOR OCTOBER 24TH (80 SET IN 1959) WILL BE THREATENED. FULL
SUNSHINE WILL ADD TO THE WARMTH, WITH THE PACIFIC JET AND ALL
CLOUDS FORCED WELL NORTH OF NEVADA.

SATURDAY...WINDY AND WARM. STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST AROUND 5 PM, WITH SW FLOW INCREASING OVER NEVADA.
SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MOST ZONES, WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH MOST LIKELY IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS WILL INTO THE 70S.
ENJOY THIS, A CHILLY REALITY CHECK IS COMING ON SUNDAY.  BT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. EURO IS MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE RESULT THAT
THE EURO HAS COLDER AIR IN IT THAN THE GFS. FOR LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...SUFFICIENT RH AND LOW ENOUGH THICKNESS WILL MEAN SHOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS. BETWEEN ABOUT
6000 AND 7000 FEET LOOK FOR A DUSTING TO VERY MINOR ACCUMS. BELOW
6000 LIKELY JUST SHOWERS TO A DUSTING. HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING
THE 40S IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND 50S FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 50 TO
INTERSTATE 80. HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN THE NORTH
PART. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LARGELY IN THE 50S AND 60S. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS A SLOW WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE...BUT SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS MEANS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN POPS SO
JUST LOW POPS WARRANTED IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. BB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL KWMC...KEKO...KELY...KTPH THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. MIDDLE LAYERS CIGS WILL FORM OVER KWMC AND KEKO STARTING
LATE MORNING IN KWMC AND MID AFTERNOON KEKO. KWMC WILL SEE SOME
VCSH TOWARD SUNSET THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT ALL
SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BB


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98








000
FXUS65 KVEF 230855
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A COUPLE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, THE SKY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND UP INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER AT THE
MOMENT AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
BRUSHING NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIRES MODEL SHOWS A
POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
SATURDAY BUT KEEPS IT ANCHORED TO THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH NO
HINT OF STRONGER WINDS MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER SLOPES OR INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY. WILL MONITOR THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AREA REMAINING
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COOL US
DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE SATURDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LATE SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES
HOLD. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BALANCED BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
COMBINE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT BY 16Z. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH...CLEAR
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT KBIH
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KREV 230319
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
819 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST CWA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THICKENING CLOUDS WITH SOME COOLING TOPS WHILE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS OVER LASSEN COUNTY ALREADY. THESE MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH
WIDESPREAD LIFT...OTHER THAN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IN NORTHERN CA, WE`LL SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH, BUT IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE
TAHOE IN LASSEN, PLUMAS AND MODOC COUNTIES. TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET UP TO 0.25"
OF RAINFALL, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 395 WILL GET 0.10" OR
LESS. SINCE MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AROUND 9000-10000FT OR MORE.

INCREASED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY MAY PUT A DAMPER ON VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE AREA FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE IN THE
DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUDS THURSDAY
AND THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE.

BY FRIDAY, A STRONG JET MAX MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL LIFT THE
RIDGE OVER NEVADA, PULLING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA. WE`VE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SO WE`VE ALSO LOWERED
THE WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THE ADVANCING TROUGH OFF THE
NORCAL COAST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WITH RIDGE LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 50 MPH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOON

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE MAIN
CHANGES CONCERN TIMING VARIANCES AS MODELS RESOLVE MAJOR FEATURES.
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND, FOR INSTANCE, HAS SLOWED A
LITTLE. THEREFORE, IT WAS NECESSARY TO TRIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOSTLY OUT OF CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. AS THE WAVE SPLITS,
ANOTHER JET IMPULSE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE MORE LATITUDINAL RATHER THAN THE EASTWARD PUSH WE WERE
EXPECTING BEFORE. THE PATTERN`S SHIFT WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD WITH LESS SPILLING OVER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SPECIFICALLY, EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. WHILE WINDS DECREASE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THESE CHANCES OF MOSTLY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
EXIT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TRANSITING
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KT.

MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE OVER THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SIERRA. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA WITH THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF DEGRADED CEILINGS TO AT LEAST
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR ON SATURDAY AT SIERRA TERMINALS. WH/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 230318 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
818 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD ALONG THE SIERRA
SLOPES AS A TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO COOLER WEATHER AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
-SALMEN-

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...245 PM PDT...

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BUMP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERTS (6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER) AS 588 DM HEIGHTS NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PACIFIC TROUGHING NUDGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THEY LOOK TO STAY BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER DRY...VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD BE GENERATED.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL JET FLOW SITS
ACROSS THE U.S. AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A LONG STRING OF 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN
OCTOBER FOR LAS VEGAS (THE ENTIRE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE MONTH FOR
THAT MATTER)...70S DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME TENDENCY FOR EASTERLY COMPONENTS AFTER 18Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES OCCASIONAL SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT CLEAR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KREV 222202
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IN NORTHERN CA, WE`LL SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH, BUT IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE
TAHOE IN LASSEN, PLUMAS AND MODOC COUNTIES. TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET UP TO 0.25"
OF RAINFALL, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 395 WILL GET 0.10" OR
LESS. SINCE MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AROUND 9000-10000FT OR MORE.

INCREASED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY MAY PUT A DAMPER ON VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE AREA FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE IN THE
DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUDS THURSDAY
AND THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE.

BY FRIDAY, A STRONG JET MAX MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL LIFT THE
RIDGE OVER NEVADA, PULLING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA. WE`VE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SO WE`VE ALSO LOWERED
THE WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THE ADVANCING TROUGH OFF THE
NORCAL COAST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WITH RIDGE LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 50 MPH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE MAIN
CHANGES CONCERN TIMING VARIANCES AS MODELS RESOLVE MAJOR FEATURES.
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND, FOR INSTANCE, HAS SLOWED A
LITTLE. THEREFORE, IT WAS NECESSARY TO TRIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOSTLY OUT OF CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. AS THE WAVE SPLITS,
ANOTHER JET IMPULSE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE MORE LATITUDINAL RATHER THAN THE EASTWARD PUSH WE WERE
EXPECTING BEFORE. THE PATTERN`S SHIFT WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD WITH LESS SPILLING OVER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SPECIFICALLY, EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. WHILE WINDS DECREASE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THESE CHANCES OF MOSTLY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
EXIT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TRANSITING
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KT.

MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE OVER THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SIERRA. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA WITH THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF DEGRADED CEILINGS TO AT LEAST
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR ON SATURDAY AT SIERRA TERMINALS. WH/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KVEF 222142
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD ALONG THE SIERRA
SLOPES AS A TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO COOLER WEATHER AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BUMP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERTS (6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER) AS 588 DM HEIGHTS NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PACIFIC TROUGHING NUDGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THEY LOOK TO STAY BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER DRY...VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD BE GENERATED.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL JET FLOW SITS
ACROSS THE U.S. AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A LONG STRING OF 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN
OCTOBER FOR LAS VEGAS (THE ENTIRE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE MONTH FOR
THAT MATTER)...70S DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME TENDENCY FOR EASTERLY COMPONENTS AFTER 18Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES OCCASIONAL SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT CLEAR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KLKN 222120
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S THURSDAY AND MID 70S FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING FRIDAY.
WINDS BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTIES THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SUNNY AND DRY WITH CONTINUED
WARMING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS MOST VALLEY AREAS HIT 75
DEGREES. WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON EARLY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...LEADING TO BRIEF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
FUELS REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE
WITH TROF AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING ACROSS
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. EC FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. BY 00Z MONDAY...GFS HAS THE FRONT IN EASTERN NV
WHILE EC PLACES IT IN CENTRAL UT. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGEST RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE EC STRONGEST WITH THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...EC DIGS
A STRONGER AND COLDER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHILE GFS HAS A
"DIRTY" RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES CLOUDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THUS
HAVE LOW POPS WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
ZONES DRY WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES FOR DAY 7. TEMPERATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND
KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

96/87/87






000
FXUS65 KVEF 221613
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER RATHER WARM OCTOBER DAY IS IN STORE WITH
THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATING A HIGH IN LAS VEGAS OF 86F...WHICH
IS ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.


&&
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-ADVISORY
WINDS AT THIS TIME. THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY WITH TWO WAVES OF ENERGY SLATED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY JUST CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE SECOND WILL SWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE OF A NORTHERLY
WIND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE
SHOULD STILL COOL DOWN NICELY SUNDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS
ALOFT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS...AND THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH. WE
SHOULD THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. WOULD
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 7KTS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE BETWEEN 14-18Z. AFTER 18Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS OVER MOST
AREAS TODAY WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$
UPDATE...OUTLER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










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