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000
FXUS65 KLKN 302100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOT UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CEDAR CITY UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UNUSUALLY HOT AIRMASS CONTINUES FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE, WITH
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE QUALITY CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, WITH PW OF 0.9-1.1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.
KLRX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AS EXPECTED AS OF 1 PM, AND THESE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SUNSET. ATMOSPHERE OVER ELKO COUNTY IS
QUITE UNSTABLE, WITH CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO
-4. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO ONLY MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AS SUCH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD, TO
RECENTER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY 5 PM. THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR, HIGHER NEAR THE RUBY MTNS. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50. THE HEAT MARCHES ON, WITH MAX TEMPS OF
96-104 IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. WINDS LIGHT OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE, WITH 12Z ECMWF PLACING THE
CENTER NEAR BATTLE MOUNTAIN AT NOON. AS SUCH, HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE, AGAIN 96-104 IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT BEST. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING FORECAST TO
CENTER OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE...SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE EVENING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN...WITH RETURN CIRCULATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA. HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WON`T BRING DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS
MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DIP MUCH...WITH 50S AND 60S THE NORM. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KWMC WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LAL AVERAGING NEAR 4 FOR MOST FWZ.
FUELS HAVE YET TO BE DECLARED BROWN/CURED FOR ALL FWZ. THAT SAID,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7 PM, WITH LOCALIZED FIRE
STARTS LIKELY. THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD REMAINS LOW. ALL
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP, BUT MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FWZ, WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ACROSS FWZ
455 AND 457. THUNDERSTORM TRENDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY AGAIN AFFECTING FWZ 455 AND 457.
TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/86/86/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOT UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CEDAR CITY UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UNUSUALLY HOT AIRMASS CONTINUES FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE, WITH
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE QUALITY CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, WITH PW OF 0.9-1.1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.
KLRX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AS EXPECTED AS OF 1 PM, AND THESE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SUNSET. ATMOSPHERE OVER ELKO COUNTY IS
QUITE UNSTABLE, WITH CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO
-4. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO ONLY MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AS SUCH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD, TO
RECENTER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY 5 PM. THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR, HIGHER NEAR THE RUBY MTNS. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50. THE HEAT MARCHES ON, WITH MAX TEMPS OF
96-104 IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. WINDS LIGHT OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE, WITH 12Z ECMWF PLACING THE
CENTER NEAR BATTLE MOUNTAIN AT NOON. AS SUCH, HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE, AGAIN 96-104 IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT BEST. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING FORECAST TO
CENTER OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE...SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE EVENING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN...WITH RETURN CIRCULATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA. HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WON`T BRING DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS
MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DIP MUCH...WITH 50S AND 60S THE NORM. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KWMC WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LAL AVERAGING NEAR 4 FOR MOST FWZ.
FUELS HAVE YET TO BE DECLARED BROWN/CURED FOR ALL FWZ. THAT SAID,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7 PM, WITH LOCALIZED FIRE
STARTS LIKELY. THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD REMAINS LOW. ALL
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP, BUT MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FWZ, WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ACROSS FWZ
455 AND 457. THUNDERSTORM TRENDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY AGAIN AFFECTING FWZ 455 AND 457.
TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/86/86/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOT UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CEDAR CITY UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UNUSUALLY HOT AIRMASS CONTINUES FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE, WITH
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE QUALITY CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, WITH PW OF 0.9-1.1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.
KLRX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AS EXPECTED AS OF 1 PM, AND THESE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SUNSET. ATMOSPHERE OVER ELKO COUNTY IS
QUITE UNSTABLE, WITH CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO
-4. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO ONLY MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AS SUCH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD, TO
RECENTER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY 5 PM. THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR, HIGHER NEAR THE RUBY MTNS. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50. THE HEAT MARCHES ON, WITH MAX TEMPS OF
96-104 IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. WINDS LIGHT OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE, WITH 12Z ECMWF PLACING THE
CENTER NEAR BATTLE MOUNTAIN AT NOON. AS SUCH, HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE, AGAIN 96-104 IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT BEST. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING FORECAST TO
CENTER OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE...SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE EVENING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN...WITH RETURN CIRCULATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA. HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WON`T BRING DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS
MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DIP MUCH...WITH 50S AND 60S THE NORM. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KWMC WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LAL AVERAGING NEAR 4 FOR MOST FWZ.
FUELS HAVE YET TO BE DECLARED BROWN/CURED FOR ALL FWZ. THAT SAID,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7 PM, WITH LOCALIZED FIRE
STARTS LIKELY. THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD REMAINS LOW. ALL
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP, BUT MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FWZ, WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ACROSS FWZ
455 AND 457. THUNDERSTORM TRENDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY AGAIN AFFECTING FWZ 455 AND 457.
TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/86/86/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOT UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CEDAR CITY UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UNUSUALLY HOT AIRMASS CONTINUES FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE, WITH
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE QUALITY CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, WITH PW OF 0.9-1.1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.
KLRX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AS EXPECTED AS OF 1 PM, AND THESE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SUNSET. ATMOSPHERE OVER ELKO COUNTY IS
QUITE UNSTABLE, WITH CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO
-4. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO ONLY MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AS SUCH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD, TO
RECENTER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY 5 PM. THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR, HIGHER NEAR THE RUBY MTNS. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50. THE HEAT MARCHES ON, WITH MAX TEMPS OF
96-104 IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. WINDS LIGHT OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE, WITH 12Z ECMWF PLACING THE
CENTER NEAR BATTLE MOUNTAIN AT NOON. AS SUCH, HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE, AGAIN 96-104 IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT BEST. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING FORECAST TO
CENTER OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE...SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE EVENING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN...WITH RETURN CIRCULATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA. HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WON`T BRING DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS
MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DIP MUCH...WITH 50S AND 60S THE NORM. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KWMC WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LAL AVERAGING NEAR 4 FOR MOST FWZ.
FUELS HAVE YET TO BE DECLARED BROWN/CURED FOR ALL FWZ. THAT SAID,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7 PM, WITH LOCALIZED FIRE
STARTS LIKELY. THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD REMAINS LOW. ALL
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP, BUT MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FWZ, WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ACROSS FWZ
455 AND 457. THUNDERSTORM TRENDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY AGAIN AFFECTING FWZ 455 AND 457.
TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/86/86/99



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KVEF 301636
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
936 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.UPDATE...LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AND THAT IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
FORECASTING A SOMEWHAT STABLE AREA OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY UP ACROSS EASTERN INYO COUNTY SUPPORTING THE LOWER POPS WE
HAVE THERE. OVERALL THE INHERITED FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.  -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
313 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEARLY ALL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF AS OF 230
AM THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS IS WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REMNANT MCV CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF LAUGHLIN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST. THESE RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AFTER WHICH THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH)...WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DUST AVAILABLE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TODAY. FLOW/STORM MOTION
WILL AGAIN FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THEN
MOVING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD HELP KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING (OR START IT UP
AGAIN) OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND OREGON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS AN INDICATION BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND SLIGHT STABILIZING TREND AS THE
HIGH CENTER MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UP THROUGH INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
FASTER PATTERN SHIFT THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO AND IT WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION YET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND I
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ARES AND NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT FOR
NOW. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES THIS
DRYING TREND MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
OF THESE SUBTLE CHANGES. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WILL
REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 105 FOR LAS VEGAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A TYPICAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE JUNE RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE TIED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
RECORD STANDS AT 21 DAYS AND HAS BEEN SET FOR TIMES...MOST RECENTLY
IN 2000.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............ADAIR
CLIMATE...............STACHELSKI




000
FXUS65 KVEF 301636
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
936 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.UPDATE...LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AND THAT IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
FORECASTING A SOMEWHAT STABLE AREA OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY UP ACROSS EASTERN INYO COUNTY SUPPORTING THE LOWER POPS WE
HAVE THERE. OVERALL THE INHERITED FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.  -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
313 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEARLY ALL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF AS OF 230
AM THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS IS WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REMNANT MCV CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF LAUGHLIN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST. THESE RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AFTER WHICH THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH)...WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DUST AVAILABLE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TODAY. FLOW/STORM MOTION
WILL AGAIN FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THEN
MOVING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD HELP KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING (OR START IT UP
AGAIN) OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND OREGON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS AN INDICATION BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND SLIGHT STABILIZING TREND AS THE
HIGH CENTER MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UP THROUGH INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
FASTER PATTERN SHIFT THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO AND IT WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION YET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND I
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ARES AND NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT FOR
NOW. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES THIS
DRYING TREND MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
OF THESE SUBTLE CHANGES. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WILL
REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 105 FOR LAS VEGAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A TYPICAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE JUNE RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE TIED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
RECORD STANDS AT 21 DAYS AND HAS BEEN SET FOR TIMES...MOST RECENTLY
IN 2000.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............ADAIR
CLIMATE...............STACHELSKI




000
FXUS65 KVEF 301636
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
936 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.UPDATE...LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AND THAT IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
FORECASTING A SOMEWHAT STABLE AREA OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY UP ACROSS EASTERN INYO COUNTY SUPPORTING THE LOWER POPS WE
HAVE THERE. OVERALL THE INHERITED FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.  -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
313 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEARLY ALL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF AS OF 230
AM THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS IS WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REMNANT MCV CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF LAUGHLIN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST. THESE RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AFTER WHICH THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH)...WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DUST AVAILABLE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TODAY. FLOW/STORM MOTION
WILL AGAIN FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THEN
MOVING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD HELP KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING (OR START IT UP
AGAIN) OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND OREGON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS AN INDICATION BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND SLIGHT STABILIZING TREND AS THE
HIGH CENTER MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UP THROUGH INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
FASTER PATTERN SHIFT THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO AND IT WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION YET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND I
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ARES AND NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT FOR
NOW. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES THIS
DRYING TREND MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
OF THESE SUBTLE CHANGES. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WILL
REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 105 FOR LAS VEGAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A TYPICAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE JUNE RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE TIED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
RECORD STANDS AT 21 DAYS AND HAS BEEN SET FOR TIMES...MOST RECENTLY
IN 2000.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............ADAIR
CLIMATE...............STACHELSKI




000
FXUS65 KVEF 301636
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
936 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.UPDATE...LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AND THAT IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
FORECASTING A SOMEWHAT STABLE AREA OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY UP ACROSS EASTERN INYO COUNTY SUPPORTING THE LOWER POPS WE
HAVE THERE. OVERALL THE INHERITED FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.  -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
313 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEARLY ALL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF AS OF 230
AM THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS IS WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REMNANT MCV CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF LAUGHLIN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST. THESE RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AFTER WHICH THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH)...WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DUST AVAILABLE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TODAY. FLOW/STORM MOTION
WILL AGAIN FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THEN
MOVING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD HELP KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING (OR START IT UP
AGAIN) OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND OREGON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS AN INDICATION BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND SLIGHT STABILIZING TREND AS THE
HIGH CENTER MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UP THROUGH INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
FASTER PATTERN SHIFT THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO AND IT WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION YET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND I
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ARES AND NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT FOR
NOW. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES THIS
DRYING TREND MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
OF THESE SUBTLE CHANGES. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WILL
REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 105 FOR LAS VEGAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A TYPICAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE JUNE RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE TIED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
RECORD STANDS AT 21 DAYS AND HAS BEEN SET FOR TIMES...MOST RECENTLY
IN 2000.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............ADAIR
CLIMATE...............STACHELSKI




000
FXUS65 KLKN 301625 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK AREA ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 301625 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK AREA ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 301623
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 301623
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 301623
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 301623
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 301623
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 301036
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&



.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87



000
FXUS65 KLKN 301036
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&



.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 301036
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&



.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87



000
FXUS65 KLKN 301036
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

&&



.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87




000
FXUS65 KVEF 301013
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
313 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEARLY ALL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF AS OF 230
AM THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS IS WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REMNANT MCV CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF LAUGHLIN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST. THESE RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AFTER WHICH THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH)...WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DUST AVAILABLE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TODAY. FLOW/STORM MOTION
WILL AGAIN FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THEN
MOVING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD HELP KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING (OR START IT UP
AGAIN) OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND OREGON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS AN INDICATION BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND SLIGHT STABILIZING TREND AS THE
HIGH CENTER MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UP THROUGH INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
FASTER PATTERN SHIFT THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO AND IT WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION YET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND I
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ARES AND NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT FOR
NOW. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES THIS
DRYING TREND MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
OF THESE SUBTLE CHANGES. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WILL
REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 105 FOR LAS VEGAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A TYPICAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE JUNE RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE TIED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
RECORD STANDS AT 21 DAYS AND HAS BEEN SET FOR TIMES...MOST RECENTLY
IN 2000.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............ADAIR
CLIMATE...............STACHELSKI



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 300948
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEK ACROSS MANY
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE FOR
SIERRA NEVADA VALLEYS. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED 105
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WEST CENTRAL NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY MILD WITH RENO
HAVING ALREADY SET ITS ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE FOR
THE MONTH OF JUNE ON THE 27TH AND 29TH OF THIS MONTH IN WHICH THE
LOW ONLY FELL TO 70 DEGREES. THIS TOPPED OUR OLD RECORD OF 68
DEGREES LAST SET IN 2013.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO FILTER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS A RESULT WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL EXISTING THROUGH THE SIERRA. THE MORE FAVORED REGION
WITH THE BETTER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MONO INTO ALPINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD WITH STEERING LAYER FLOW NEAR 20 KTS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE A STILL CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS TODAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME CONSIDERABLE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THERE IS A BIT OF A DCAPE
GRADIENT WITH ABOUT 800-1000 J/KG EXISTING SOUTH OF HWY 50 AND
1000-1200 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50. AS SUCH, WOULD EXPECT OUTFLOW
GUSTS MORE IN THE 30-40 MPH SOUTH OF HWY 50 AND UP TO 40-50 MPH
NORTHWARD BASED ON YESTERDAY`S TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA BUT
THE BETTER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE A BIT SLOWER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED THROUGH THE SIERRA ON THURSDAY AND HAVE
TRENDED CHANCES UPWARD FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL PLUMAS COUNTY. STEERING FLOW WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST SO INITIAL FORMATION ALONG THE CREST SHOULD TRACK ALONG
MAINLY TO THE WEST SLOPES. OUTFLOW GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT BY THURSDAY ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONO AND ALPINE COUNTY WITH
THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE WEEKEND FROM THE VERY HOT READINGS MID WEEK AND BACK INTO
THE 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW-MID 80S FOR THE SIERRA. THE
COOLING, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WILL BE MORE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE FUELING THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LATE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BIGGEST
DAYS APPEARING TO BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE
AS PW RISES TO NEAR 1 INCH. WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MOISTURE REMAINS BUT THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SLOW DRYING TREND. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE DRYING
WITH A MORE SW FLOW WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE CLOSER AND A MORE
SOUTH FLOW. LEANING TOWARD THE EC AS IT IS MORE SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLES. HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SO TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THE SLOW COOL DOWN. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS GUSTS TO
20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 300948
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEK ACROSS MANY
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE FOR
SIERRA NEVADA VALLEYS. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED 105
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WEST CENTRAL NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY MILD WITH RENO
HAVING ALREADY SET ITS ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE FOR
THE MONTH OF JUNE ON THE 27TH AND 29TH OF THIS MONTH IN WHICH THE
LOW ONLY FELL TO 70 DEGREES. THIS TOPPED OUR OLD RECORD OF 68
DEGREES LAST SET IN 2013.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO FILTER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS A RESULT WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL EXISTING THROUGH THE SIERRA. THE MORE FAVORED REGION
WITH THE BETTER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MONO INTO ALPINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD WITH STEERING LAYER FLOW NEAR 20 KTS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE A STILL CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS TODAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME CONSIDERABLE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THERE IS A BIT OF A DCAPE
GRADIENT WITH ABOUT 800-1000 J/KG EXISTING SOUTH OF HWY 50 AND
1000-1200 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50. AS SUCH, WOULD EXPECT OUTFLOW
GUSTS MORE IN THE 30-40 MPH SOUTH OF HWY 50 AND UP TO 40-50 MPH
NORTHWARD BASED ON YESTERDAY`S TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA BUT
THE BETTER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE A BIT SLOWER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED THROUGH THE SIERRA ON THURSDAY AND HAVE
TRENDED CHANCES UPWARD FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL PLUMAS COUNTY. STEERING FLOW WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST SO INITIAL FORMATION ALONG THE CREST SHOULD TRACK ALONG
MAINLY TO THE WEST SLOPES. OUTFLOW GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT BY THURSDAY ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONO AND ALPINE COUNTY WITH
THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE WEEKEND FROM THE VERY HOT READINGS MID WEEK AND BACK INTO
THE 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW-MID 80S FOR THE SIERRA. THE
COOLING, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WILL BE MORE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE FUELING THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LATE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BIGGEST
DAYS APPEARING TO BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE
AS PW RISES TO NEAR 1 INCH. WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MOISTURE REMAINS BUT THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SLOW DRYING TREND. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE DRYING
WITH A MORE SW FLOW WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE CLOSER AND A MORE
SOUTH FLOW. LEANING TOWARD THE EC AS IT IS MORE SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLES. HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SO TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THE SLOW COOL DOWN. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS GUSTS TO
20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KVEF 300812
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
112 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CLARK AND NORTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DUE
TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. I DON`T EXPECT THESE CELLS TO LAST VERY
LONG. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BRIEFLY HIT 40-50 MPH...ESPECIALLY JUST
WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AT 08Z COULD IMPACT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BETWEEN 0830Z AND 0900Z. OUTSIDE
OF OUTFLOW WINDS...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KIGM...KEED...AND KIFP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS BY 10Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PREV UPDATE...1110 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
PRECIP CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING WHERE ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING WEST. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY JUST EAST OF US-
93 MOVING TOWARDS THE KINGMAN AREA.
&&

.PREV UPDATE... 649 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. AS OF 640 PM THERE WERE THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF
ACTIVITY. SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WAS SEEING
INCREASING ACTIVITY WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOME AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT AREA WAS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
MOVING TOWARDS I-15 BETWEEN MOAPA AND MESQUITE...THIS ACTIVITY WAS
WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. THE THIRD AREA WAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE STORMS BRIEFLY FIRED OVER THE MCCULLOUGH
RANGE AND MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LAS VEGAS. VALLEY. THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED BUT HAVE PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH. THESE SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LARGE
SPRINKLES) TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE ONE INCH LINE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MAYBE OTHER PARTS OF INYO COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO EVIDENT IN
OTHER MODELS BUT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY THEN IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS PATTERN
WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO
AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AND THERE IS NOW A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. &&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATES/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300610
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1110 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PRECIP CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING WEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY JUST EAST OF US-93 MOVING TOWARDS THE
KINGMAN AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND
10 KTS BARRING ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH TUESDAY...SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NEAR KIGM OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK,
LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER
OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS
EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PREV UPDATE... 649 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. AS OF 640 PM THERE WERE THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF
ACTIVITY. SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WAS SEEING
INCREASING ACTIVITY WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOME AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT AREA WAS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
MOVING TOWARDS I-15 BETWEEN MOAPA AND MESQUITE...THIS ACTIVITY WAS
WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. THE THIRD AREA WAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE STORMS BRIEFLY FIRED OVER THE MCCULLOUGH
RANGE AND MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LAS VEGAS. VALLEY. THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED BUT HAVE PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH. THESE SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LARGE
SPRINKLES) TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE ONE INCH LINE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MAYBE OTHER PARTS OF INYO COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO EVIDENT IN
OTHER MODELS BUT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY THEN IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS PATTERN
WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO
AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AND THERE IS NOW A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. &&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATES/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 300610
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1110 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PRECIP CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING WEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY JUST EAST OF US-93 MOVING TOWARDS THE
KINGMAN AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND
10 KTS BARRING ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH TUESDAY...SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NEAR KIGM OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK,
LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER
OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS
EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PREV UPDATE... 649 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. AS OF 640 PM THERE WERE THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF
ACTIVITY. SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WAS SEEING
INCREASING ACTIVITY WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOME AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT AREA WAS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
MOVING TOWARDS I-15 BETWEEN MOAPA AND MESQUITE...THIS ACTIVITY WAS
WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. THE THIRD AREA WAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE STORMS BRIEFLY FIRED OVER THE MCCULLOUGH
RANGE AND MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LAS VEGAS. VALLEY. THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED BUT HAVE PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH. THESE SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LARGE
SPRINKLES) TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE ONE INCH LINE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MAYBE OTHER PARTS OF INYO COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO EVIDENT IN
OTHER MODELS BUT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY THEN IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS PATTERN
WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO
AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AND THERE IS NOW A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. &&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATES/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300610
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1110 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PRECIP CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING WEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY JUST EAST OF US-93 MOVING TOWARDS THE
KINGMAN AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND
10 KTS BARRING ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH TUESDAY...SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NEAR KIGM OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK,
LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER
OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS
EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PREV UPDATE... 649 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. AS OF 640 PM THERE WERE THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF
ACTIVITY. SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WAS SEEING
INCREASING ACTIVITY WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOME AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT AREA WAS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
MOVING TOWARDS I-15 BETWEEN MOAPA AND MESQUITE...THIS ACTIVITY WAS
WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. THE THIRD AREA WAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE STORMS BRIEFLY FIRED OVER THE MCCULLOUGH
RANGE AND MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LAS VEGAS. VALLEY. THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED BUT HAVE PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH. THESE SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LARGE
SPRINKLES) TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE ONE INCH LINE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MAYBE OTHER PARTS OF INYO COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO EVIDENT IN
OTHER MODELS BUT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY THEN IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS PATTERN
WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO
AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AND THERE IS NOW A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. &&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATES/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 300331
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT THERE
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR ERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE INSTABILITY IS STILL
AVAILABLE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AS SHOWN BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT TRYING
TO PUSH WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
ALL THIS TAKEN TOGETHER ARGUES FOR SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WE CANNOT IGNORE THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN EARLIER. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY IS ALLOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY INITIATED TODAY WITH MULTIPLE CELLS IN LYON AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY 1PM. THE BEST INSTABILITY TODAY IS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS
ALLOWED FOR BETTER HEATING THAN YESTERDAY, COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT PWAT OF NEAR AN INCH, EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING.
STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING, BUT STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
COULD CREATE VERY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARES.

MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS, THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS ALSO HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TIMED FOR TUESDAY`S PEAK HEATING THAT WOULD
ADD SOME FORCING. INSTABILITY LOOKS AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER
TOMORROW BUT DRY AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DRIER AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT INSTABILITY
DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THUNDERSTORMS SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100 WITH SOME AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA EXCEEDING 105. IN ADDITION TO VERY HOT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES ADDING TO
POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA INCLUDING THE AREAS AROUND LOVELOCK AND FALLON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY HOT THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS
WEEK,THOUGH AREAS CLOSER TO THE SIERRA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
LATE AFTERNOON COOLING DUE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
TOLBY

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK: (1) SEVERAL DAYS IN A
ROW OF HOT TEMPERATURES; AND (2) THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN
AND RANGE ZONE INCLUDING FERNLEY, PYRAMID LAKE, FALLON AND LOVELOCK.
AFTER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, A SLOW COOLING
TREND MAY BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.  HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHEN HEAT EVENTS LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW LIKE THIS ONE, VISITS TO
EMERGENCY CARE CENTERS DUE TO HEAT ILLNESS TEND TO INCREASE EACH DAY
AS THE EVENT GOES ON.  THUS, PLEASE TAKE EXTRA CARE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND AVOID DIRECT SUNLIGHT WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK IS NEAR RECORD MOISTURE
ALOFT.  THE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY UNLESS
THERE IS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT ALOFT PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
VALUES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS.  EXPECT PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 TO
0.90 INCH THURSDAY TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOIST AIR
FROM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV. THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING, RAISES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE
POTENTIAL IS HIGH, THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER (TOO MUCH LIMITS INSTABILITY) AND THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY UPPER IMPULSES (WHICH TEND TO BE TOO SMALL SCALE FOR
US TO FORECAST MORE THAN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF TIME). THE BOTTOM
LINE: STAY TUNED TO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  JCM

AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR SOME SW
WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80.  THERE IS A 15-30 PCT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TODAY THOUGH 03Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAUSING SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION.  A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. JCM

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, SOUTH AND EAST OF A
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE
OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE WET,
BUT THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL
FORESTS ON THURSDAY. STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS
PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH,
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 300331
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT THERE
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR ERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE INSTABILITY IS STILL
AVAILABLE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AS SHOWN BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT TRYING
TO PUSH WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
ALL THIS TAKEN TOGETHER ARGUES FOR SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WE CANNOT IGNORE THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN EARLIER. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY IS ALLOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY INITIATED TODAY WITH MULTIPLE CELLS IN LYON AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY 1PM. THE BEST INSTABILITY TODAY IS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS
ALLOWED FOR BETTER HEATING THAN YESTERDAY, COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT PWAT OF NEAR AN INCH, EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING.
STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING, BUT STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
COULD CREATE VERY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARES.

MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS, THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS ALSO HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TIMED FOR TUESDAY`S PEAK HEATING THAT WOULD
ADD SOME FORCING. INSTABILITY LOOKS AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER
TOMORROW BUT DRY AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DRIER AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT INSTABILITY
DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THUNDERSTORMS SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100 WITH SOME AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA EXCEEDING 105. IN ADDITION TO VERY HOT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES ADDING TO
POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA INCLUDING THE AREAS AROUND LOVELOCK AND FALLON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY HOT THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS
WEEK,THOUGH AREAS CLOSER TO THE SIERRA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
LATE AFTERNOON COOLING DUE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
TOLBY

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK: (1) SEVERAL DAYS IN A
ROW OF HOT TEMPERATURES; AND (2) THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN
AND RANGE ZONE INCLUDING FERNLEY, PYRAMID LAKE, FALLON AND LOVELOCK.
AFTER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, A SLOW COOLING
TREND MAY BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.  HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHEN HEAT EVENTS LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW LIKE THIS ONE, VISITS TO
EMERGENCY CARE CENTERS DUE TO HEAT ILLNESS TEND TO INCREASE EACH DAY
AS THE EVENT GOES ON.  THUS, PLEASE TAKE EXTRA CARE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND AVOID DIRECT SUNLIGHT WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK IS NEAR RECORD MOISTURE
ALOFT.  THE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY UNLESS
THERE IS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT ALOFT PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
VALUES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS.  EXPECT PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 TO
0.90 INCH THURSDAY TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOIST AIR
FROM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV. THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING, RAISES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE
POTENTIAL IS HIGH, THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER (TOO MUCH LIMITS INSTABILITY) AND THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY UPPER IMPULSES (WHICH TEND TO BE TOO SMALL SCALE FOR
US TO FORECAST MORE THAN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF TIME). THE BOTTOM
LINE: STAY TUNED TO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  JCM

AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR SOME SW
WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80.  THERE IS A 15-30 PCT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TODAY THOUGH 03Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAUSING SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION.  A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. JCM

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, SOUTH AND EAST OF A
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE
OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE WET,
BUT THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL
FORESTS ON THURSDAY. STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS
PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH,
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300149
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
649 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AS OF 640 PM THERE
WERE THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF ACTIVITY. SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WAS SEEING INCREASING ACTIVITY WITH STORMS FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT AREA
WAS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY MOVING TOWARDS I-15 BETWEEN MOAPA
AND MESQUITE...THIS ACTIVITY WAS WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO. THE THIRD AREA WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE STORMS
BRIEFLY FIRED OVER THE MCCULLOUGH RANGE AND MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST
LAS VEGAS. VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED BUT HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH. THESE
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LARGE SPRINKLES) TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT ACTIVITY CALMS DOWN WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO THEIR TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS
BARRING ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH TUESDAY...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO.
SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO
GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU TOWARD KIFP,
KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH
BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE ONE INCH LINE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MAYBE OTHER PARTS OF INYO COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO EVIDENT IN
OTHER MODELS BUT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY THEN IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS PATTERN
WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO
AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AND THERE IS NOW A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. &&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 300149
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
649 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AS OF 640 PM THERE
WERE THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF ACTIVITY. SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WAS SEEING INCREASING ACTIVITY WITH STORMS FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT AREA
WAS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY MOVING TOWARDS I-15 BETWEEN MOAPA
AND MESQUITE...THIS ACTIVITY WAS WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO. THE THIRD AREA WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE STORMS
BRIEFLY FIRED OVER THE MCCULLOUGH RANGE AND MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST
LAS VEGAS. VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED BUT HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH. THESE
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LARGE SPRINKLES) TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT ACTIVITY CALMS DOWN WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO THEIR TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS
BARRING ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH TUESDAY...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO.
SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO
GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU TOWARD KIFP,
KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH
BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE ONE INCH LINE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MAYBE OTHER PARTS OF INYO COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO EVIDENT IN
OTHER MODELS BUT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY THEN IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS PATTERN
WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO
AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AND THERE IS NOW A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. &&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 292209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY IS ALLOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY INITIATED TODAY WITH MULTIPLE CELLS IN LYON AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY 1PM. THE BEST INSTABILITY TODAY IS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS
ALLOWED FOR BETTER HEATING THAN YESTERDAY, COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT PWAT OF NEAR AN INCH, EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING.
STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING, BUT STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
COULD CREATE VERY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARES.

MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS, THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS ALSO HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TIMED FOR TUESDAY`S PEAK HEATING THAT WOULD
ADD SOME FORCING. INSTABILITY LOOKS AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER
TOMORROW BUT DRY AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DRIER AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT INSTABILITY
DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THUNDERSTORMS SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100 WITH SOME AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA EXCEEDING 105. IN ADDITION TO VERY HOT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES ADDING TO
POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA INCLUDING THE AREAS AROUND LOVELOCK AND FALLON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY HOT THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS
WEEK,THOUGH AREAS CLOSER TO THE SIERRA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
LATE AFTERNOON COOLING DUE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
TOLBY

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK: (1) SEVERAL DAYS IN A
ROW OF HOT TEMPERATURES; AND (2) THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN
AND RANGE ZONE INCLUDING FERNLEY, PYRAMID LAKE, FALLON AND LOVELOCK.
AFTER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, A SLOW COOLING
TREND MAY BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.  HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHEN HEAT EVENTS LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW LIKE THIS ONE, VISITS TO
EMERGENCY CARE CENTERS DUE TO HEAT ILLNESS TEND TO INCREASE EACH DAY
AS THE EVENT GOES ON.  THUS, PLEASE TAKE EXTRA CARE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND AVOID DIRECT SUNLIGHT WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK IS NEAR RECORD MOISTURE
ALOFT.  THE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY UNLESS
THERE IS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT ALOFT PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
VALUES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS.  EXPECT PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 TO
0.90 INCH THURSDAY TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOIST AIR
FROM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV. THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING, RAISES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE
POTENTIAL IS HIGH, THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER (TOO MUCH LIMITS INSTABILITY) AND THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY UPPER IMPULSES (WHICH TEND TO BE TOO SMALL SCALE FOR
US TO FORECAST MORE THAN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF TIME). THE BOTTOM
LINE: STAY TUNED TO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  JCM

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR SOME SW
WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80.  THERE IS A 15-30 PCT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TODAY THOUGH 03Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAUSING SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION.  A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. JCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, SOUTH AND EAST OF A
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE
OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE WET,
BUT THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL
FORESTS ON THURSDAY. STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS
PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH,
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 292209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY IS ALLOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY INITIATED TODAY WITH MULTIPLE CELLS IN LYON AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY 1PM. THE BEST INSTABILITY TODAY IS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS
ALLOWED FOR BETTER HEATING THAN YESTERDAY, COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT PWAT OF NEAR AN INCH, EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING.
STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING, BUT STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
COULD CREATE VERY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARES.

MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS, THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS ALSO HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TIMED FOR TUESDAY`S PEAK HEATING THAT WOULD
ADD SOME FORCING. INSTABILITY LOOKS AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER
TOMORROW BUT DRY AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DRIER AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT INSTABILITY
DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THUNDERSTORMS SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100 WITH SOME AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA EXCEEDING 105. IN ADDITION TO VERY HOT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES ADDING TO
POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA INCLUDING THE AREAS AROUND LOVELOCK AND FALLON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY HOT THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS
WEEK,THOUGH AREAS CLOSER TO THE SIERRA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
LATE AFTERNOON COOLING DUE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
TOLBY

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK: (1) SEVERAL DAYS IN A
ROW OF HOT TEMPERATURES; AND (2) THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN
AND RANGE ZONE INCLUDING FERNLEY, PYRAMID LAKE, FALLON AND LOVELOCK.
AFTER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, A SLOW COOLING
TREND MAY BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.  HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHEN HEAT EVENTS LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW LIKE THIS ONE, VISITS TO
EMERGENCY CARE CENTERS DUE TO HEAT ILLNESS TEND TO INCREASE EACH DAY
AS THE EVENT GOES ON.  THUS, PLEASE TAKE EXTRA CARE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND AVOID DIRECT SUNLIGHT WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK IS NEAR RECORD MOISTURE
ALOFT.  THE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY UNLESS
THERE IS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT ALOFT PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
VALUES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS.  EXPECT PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 TO
0.90 INCH THURSDAY TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOIST AIR
FROM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV. THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING, RAISES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE
POTENTIAL IS HIGH, THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER (TOO MUCH LIMITS INSTABILITY) AND THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY UPPER IMPULSES (WHICH TEND TO BE TOO SMALL SCALE FOR
US TO FORECAST MORE THAN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF TIME). THE BOTTOM
LINE: STAY TUNED TO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  JCM

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR SOME SW
WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80.  THERE IS A 15-30 PCT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TODAY THOUGH 03Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAUSING SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION.  A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. JCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, SOUTH AND EAST OF A
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE
OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE WET,
BUT THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL
FORESTS ON THURSDAY. STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS
PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH,
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 292150
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE ONE INCH LINE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MAYBE OTHER PARTS OF INYO COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO EVIDENT IN
OTHER MODELS BUT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY THEN IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS PATTERN
WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO
AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY HANG ON UNTIL
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
THEN...PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE CAVEAT IS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA COULD CAUSE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH TUESDAY...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO.
SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO
GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU TOWARD KIFP,
KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH
BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AND THERE IS NOW A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
BUT AS EXPECTED A FEW NOTCHES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UTAH ANTICYCLONE. WITH IMPROVING
MOISTURE QUALITY /PW 0.80-0.90 INCH FOR ALL ZONES/ AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OBTAINED, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MORE PROFICIENT AT
PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL DOWN TO THE GROUND. AS USUAL, STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND MOVES LITTLE, DRIFTING SW
TO NEAR ELY/CEDAR CITY BY 5 PM. AN ACTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF WINNEMUCCA. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH WIDESPREAD PW OF
1.0-1.1 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PROGGED BY NAM TO BE ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
OF -3 TO -4. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY WEAK FLOW AT
700 MB /0-5 KTS/ SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, AND WITH
SLOW STORM SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT THERE FOR A WATCH
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST
VALLEYS BELOW 100 DEGREES TUESDAY, DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY BY 5 PM, WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ACROSS NEVADA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED FOR THESE SE ZONES. GFS CONTINUES VERY WEAK 700 MB FLOW
OF 0-5 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEARBY, SO ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES A BIT
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH, FEEL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED
FROM THAT OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND COOL TO UPPER 80S AND MID
90S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TS WILL BE KWMC
AND KEKO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
SINCE THEY ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. ON TUESDAY THE TS FOCUS SHIFTS
TO KEKO AND KELY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, AS SUCH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM MOST CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON ELKO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES, NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, SCATTERED COVERAGE IS LIKELY
(LAL 4), WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (LAL 5).
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
THE SE FWZ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
BUT AS EXPECTED A FEW NOTCHES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UTAH ANTICYCLONE. WITH IMPROVING
MOISTURE QUALITY /PW 0.80-0.90 INCH FOR ALL ZONES/ AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OBTAINED, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MORE PROFICIENT AT
PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL DOWN TO THE GROUND. AS USUAL, STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND MOVES LITTLE, DRIFTING SW
TO NEAR ELY/CEDAR CITY BY 5 PM. AN ACTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF WINNEMUCCA. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH WIDESPREAD PW OF
1.0-1.1 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PROGGED BY NAM TO BE ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
OF -3 TO -4. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY WEAK FLOW AT
700 MB /0-5 KTS/ SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, AND WITH
SLOW STORM SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT THERE FOR A WATCH
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST
VALLEYS BELOW 100 DEGREES TUESDAY, DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY BY 5 PM, WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ACROSS NEVADA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED FOR THESE SE ZONES. GFS CONTINUES VERY WEAK 700 MB FLOW
OF 0-5 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEARBY, SO ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES A BIT
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH, FEEL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED
FROM THAT OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND COOL TO UPPER 80S AND MID
90S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TS WILL BE KWMC
AND KEKO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
SINCE THEY ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. ON TUESDAY THE TS FOCUS SHIFTS
TO KEKO AND KELY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, AS SUCH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM MOST CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON ELKO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES, NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, SCATTERED COVERAGE IS LIKELY
(LAL 4), WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (LAL 5).
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
THE SE FWZ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
BUT AS EXPECTED A FEW NOTCHES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UTAH ANTICYCLONE. WITH IMPROVING
MOISTURE QUALITY /PW 0.80-0.90 INCH FOR ALL ZONES/ AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OBTAINED, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MORE PROFICIENT AT
PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL DOWN TO THE GROUND. AS USUAL, STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND MOVES LITTLE, DRIFTING SW
TO NEAR ELY/CEDAR CITY BY 5 PM. AN ACTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF WINNEMUCCA. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH WIDESPREAD PW OF
1.0-1.1 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PROGGED BY NAM TO BE ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
OF -3 TO -4. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY WEAK FLOW AT
700 MB /0-5 KTS/ SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, AND WITH
SLOW STORM SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT THERE FOR A WATCH
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST
VALLEYS BELOW 100 DEGREES TUESDAY, DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY BY 5 PM, WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ACROSS NEVADA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED FOR THESE SE ZONES. GFS CONTINUES VERY WEAK 700 MB FLOW
OF 0-5 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEARBY, SO ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES A BIT
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH, FEEL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED
FROM THAT OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND COOL TO UPPER 80S AND MID
90S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TS WILL BE KWMC
AND KEKO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
SINCE THEY ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. ON TUESDAY THE TS FOCUS SHIFTS
TO KEKO AND KELY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, AS SUCH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM MOST CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON ELKO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES, NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, SCATTERED COVERAGE IS LIKELY
(LAL 4), WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (LAL 5).
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
THE SE FWZ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
BUT AS EXPECTED A FEW NOTCHES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UTAH ANTICYCLONE. WITH IMPROVING
MOISTURE QUALITY /PW 0.80-0.90 INCH FOR ALL ZONES/ AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OBTAINED, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MORE PROFICIENT AT
PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL DOWN TO THE GROUND. AS USUAL, STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND MOVES LITTLE, DRIFTING SW
TO NEAR ELY/CEDAR CITY BY 5 PM. AN ACTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF WINNEMUCCA. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH WIDESPREAD PW OF
1.0-1.1 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PROGGED BY NAM TO BE ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
OF -3 TO -4. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY WEAK FLOW AT
700 MB /0-5 KTS/ SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, AND WITH
SLOW STORM SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT THERE FOR A WATCH
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST
VALLEYS BELOW 100 DEGREES TUESDAY, DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY BY 5 PM, WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ACROSS NEVADA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED FOR THESE SE ZONES. GFS CONTINUES VERY WEAK 700 MB FLOW
OF 0-5 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEARBY, SO ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES A BIT
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH, FEEL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED
FROM THAT OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND COOL TO UPPER 80S AND MID
90S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TS WILL BE KWMC
AND KEKO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
SINCE THEY ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. ON TUESDAY THE TS FOCUS SHIFTS
TO KEKO AND KELY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, AS SUCH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM MOST CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON ELKO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES, NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, SCATTERED COVERAGE IS LIKELY
(LAL 4), WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (LAL 5).
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
THE SE FWZ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
BUT AS EXPECTED A FEW NOTCHES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UTAH ANTICYCLONE. WITH IMPROVING
MOISTURE QUALITY /PW 0.80-0.90 INCH FOR ALL ZONES/ AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OBTAINED, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MORE PROFICIENT AT
PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL DOWN TO THE GROUND. AS USUAL, STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND MOVES LITTLE, DRIFTING SW
TO NEAR ELY/CEDAR CITY BY 5 PM. AN ACTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF WINNEMUCCA. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH WIDESPREAD PW OF
1.0-1.1 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PROGGED BY NAM TO BE ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
OF -3 TO -4. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY WEAK FLOW AT
700 MB /0-5 KTS/ SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, AND WITH
SLOW STORM SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT THERE FOR A WATCH
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST
VALLEYS BELOW 100 DEGREES TUESDAY, DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY BY 5 PM, WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ACROSS NEVADA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED FOR THESE SE ZONES. GFS CONTINUES VERY WEAK 700 MB FLOW
OF 0-5 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEARBY, SO ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES A BIT
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH, FEEL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED
FROM THAT OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND COOL TO UPPER 80S AND MID
90S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TS WILL BE KWMC
AND KEKO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
SINCE THEY ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. ON TUESDAY THE TS FOCUS SHIFTS
TO KEKO AND KELY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, AS SUCH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM MOST CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON ELKO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES, NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, SCATTERED COVERAGE IS LIKELY
(LAL 4), WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (LAL 5).
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
THE SE FWZ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
BUT AS EXPECTED A FEW NOTCHES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UTAH ANTICYCLONE. WITH IMPROVING
MOISTURE QUALITY /PW 0.80-0.90 INCH FOR ALL ZONES/ AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OBTAINED, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MORE PROFICIENT AT
PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL DOWN TO THE GROUND. AS USUAL, STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND MOVES LITTLE, DRIFTING SW
TO NEAR ELY/CEDAR CITY BY 5 PM. AN ACTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF WINNEMUCCA. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH WIDESPREAD PW OF
1.0-1.1 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PROGGED BY NAM TO BE ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
OF -3 TO -4. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY WEAK FLOW AT
700 MB /0-5 KTS/ SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, AND WITH
SLOW STORM SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT THERE FOR A WATCH
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST
VALLEYS BELOW 100 DEGREES TUESDAY, DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY BY 5 PM, WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ACROSS NEVADA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED FOR THESE SE ZONES. GFS CONTINUES VERY WEAK 700 MB FLOW
OF 0-5 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEARBY, SO ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES A BIT
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH, FEEL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE REDUCED
FROM THAT OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND COOL TO UPPER 80S AND MID
90S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TS WILL BE KWMC
AND KEKO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
SINCE THEY ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. ON TUESDAY THE TS FOCUS SHIFTS
TO KEKO AND KELY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, AS SUCH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM MOST CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON ELKO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES, NORTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, SCATTERED COVERAGE IS LIKELY
(LAL 4), WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (LAL 5).
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
THE SE FWZ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KVEF 291654
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
954 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT VERSUS YESTERDAY MORNING AS A
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PERSISTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATED LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND EVEN SLIGHTLY STABLE CONDITIONS PERHAPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HI-RES MODELS ARE
GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIMULATED COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY AND MAINLY INDICATED MOHAVE COUNTY AS HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
254 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 291654
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
954 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT VERSUS YESTERDAY MORNING AS A
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PERSISTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATED LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND EVEN SLIGHTLY STABLE CONDITIONS PERHAPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HI-RES MODELS ARE
GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIMULATED COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY AND MAINLY INDICATED MOHAVE COUNTY AS HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
254 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 291545
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
845 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR HASN`T MOVED IN AS FAR EAST EXPECTED AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80 INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1" RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD INTO MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES, SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AS DEBRIS
FLOWS WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW, SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS, WE WOULD LIKE TO
REMIND FOLKS TO HAVE A PLAN FOR THE HOT TEMPERATURES, AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF POSSIBLE, AND TO STAY HYDRATED.
WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE RIDGE OVER NEVADA LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AND THE MOISTURE RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, AND THAT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY CONVECTION RETURNS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THEN, EXPECT
DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THE EC IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON, PREFER THE COOLER EC SOLUTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE GFS
SHOWING WARMING INTO SATURDAY WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL IN A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN LIKE THIS. NORMALLY, ONCE CONVECTION STARTS ALL ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SIERRA, TEMPS COOL AFTER THE FIRST DAY. A SLOW COOLING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THEN. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION WITH A 20 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TAKING A DIRECT HIT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291545
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
845 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR HASN`T MOVED IN AS FAR EAST EXPECTED AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80 INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1" RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD INTO MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES, SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AS DEBRIS
FLOWS WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW, SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS, WE WOULD LIKE TO
REMIND FOLKS TO HAVE A PLAN FOR THE HOT TEMPERATURES, AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF POSSIBLE, AND TO STAY HYDRATED.
WEISHAHN

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE RIDGE OVER NEVADA LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AND THE MOISTURE RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, AND THAT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY CONVECTION RETURNS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THEN, EXPECT
DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THE EC IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON, PREFER THE COOLER EC SOLUTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE GFS
SHOWING WARMING INTO SATURDAY WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL IN A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN LIKE THIS. NORMALLY, ONCE CONVECTION STARTS ALL ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SIERRA, TEMPS COOL AFTER THE FIRST DAY. A SLOW COOLING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THEN. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION WITH A 20 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TAKING A DIRECT HIT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 291534 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1" RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD INTO MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES, SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AS DEBRIS
FLOWS WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW, SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS, WE WOULD LIKE TO
REMIND FOLKS TO HAVE A PLAN FOR THE HOT TEMPERATURES, AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF POSSIBLE, AND TO STAY HYDRATED.
WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE RIDGE OVER NEVADA LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AND THE MOISTURE RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, AND THAT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY CONVECTION RETURNS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THEN, EXPECT
DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THE EC IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON, PREFER THE COOLER EC SOLUTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE GFS
SHOWING WARMING INTO SATURDAY WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL IN A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN LIKE THIS. NORMALLY, ONCE CONVECTION STARTS ALL ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SIERRA, TEMPS COOL AFTER THE FIRST DAY. A SLOW COOLING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THEN. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION WITH A 20 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TAKING A DIRECT HIT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291534 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1" RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD INTO MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES, SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AS DEBRIS
FLOWS WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW, SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS, WE WOULD LIKE TO
REMIND FOLKS TO HAVE A PLAN FOR THE HOT TEMPERATURES, AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF POSSIBLE, AND TO STAY HYDRATED.
WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE RIDGE OVER NEVADA LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AND THE MOISTURE RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, AND THAT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY CONVECTION RETURNS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THEN, EXPECT
DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THE EC IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON, PREFER THE COOLER EC SOLUTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE GFS
SHOWING WARMING INTO SATURDAY WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL IN A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN LIKE THIS. NORMALLY, ONCE CONVECTION STARTS ALL ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SIERRA, TEMPS COOL AFTER THE FIRST DAY. A SLOW COOLING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THEN. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION WITH A 20 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TAKING A DIRECT HIT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290954
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
254 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 290954
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
254 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 OR
GREATER WHICH IS A HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290953 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 WHICH IS A
HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290953 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 WHICH IS A
HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290953 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 WHICH IS A
HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290953 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 WHICH IS A
HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290953 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN REALITY THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM WHEN I
SAT HERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH EXCEPT THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS
WORKED NORTH AND WAS NOW WEST OF CRESCENT CITY BY ABOUT 200-250
MILES. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH HAS BEEN WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE UP BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS
AND IN SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BARSTOW UP BY
DOUBLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND
ASSOCIATED PV AREA THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
THING TO DRIVE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AWAY FROM TERRAIN. ALREADY THIS MORNING IT APPEARS TO BE
HELPING SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR PRIMM. I DID IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PAHRUMP AND TECOPA SOUTH TOWARD MOUNTAIN
PASS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS BEHAVES AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

THE FEW ASOS SITES THAT AUGMENT FOR CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FEET OUT THE
WAY SUCH AS FRESNO, ONTARIO AND LAX ALL SHOW CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY
ABOVE 15K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE. LOOKING AT THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WORKING
WEST ON SATELLITE AT THE PRESENT, IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
OFF ALOT OF THIS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, I SUSPECT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME GETTING A LOT OF
IDEAL HEATING VIA THE SUN AND THUS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SEEMS TO GELL WELL WITH WHAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW FOR SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES TODAY WHICH IS
MAINLY IN THE POSITIVE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO GO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN BASED ON THE ARW AND NMM MODELS BUT THE FLOW TODAY DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES TO SEE MUCH.
AS A RESULT, I REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MOST VALLEY AREAS IN CLARK, INYO, SAN BERNARDINO AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FURTHER EAST, ONCE AGAIN, WE SEE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE NOTED
IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION. THUS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY POPS OUT NEAR THE RIM OR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND WORKS WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIVE THIS EVENING FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS I DID LEAVE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PWATS ARE HIGHER (ABOVE AN INCH) AND THUS WE MAY SEE SOME
WETTER STORMS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN DRIVING ACTIVITY THERE REALLY IS
NO FEATURE PRESENT AND I AGAIN REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST VALLEYS LEAVING POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT I
SHOWED FOR TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

UNLESS WE SEE A BIG INJECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
OR TOMORROW I SUSPECT THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WEST TOWARD NEVADA AND THIS WOULD TRAP WHATEVER MOISTURE IS UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING WE MAY SEE MOISTURE LEVELS
EVEN DROP DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, I LEFT
POPS AS IS, BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE VALLEYS IF WE
DO NOT GET ANY BIGGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON IN HERE. CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD TREND UP THOUGH AS THE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS RISE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET
AND ECMWF FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS SOME RISK WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA OF 112 IN LAS VEGAS AS SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW 111 FOR A HIGH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING A
STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA
THURSDAY THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WARMER
AIR ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH CENTER LIMITS INSTABILITY. ALSO...DRIER AIR
COMING DOWN FROM IDAHO AND UTAH IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO...IT IS LOOKING VERY HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES OF 110-113 LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A BAND OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 04Z OR SO TUESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
14 KTS AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z TODAY AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
IN THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY IN THE DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH
CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z AND BEFORE 04Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO. SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY BLDU
TOWARD KIFP, KEED AND KHII THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BE WETTER ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY HIGH BASED IN THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXCEPT IN ANY SLOWER
MOVING OR STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SEE THE GRAPHIC POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA
SITES. LAS VEGAS WILL BE AT RISK TO SEE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105 OR GREATER IN JUNE OF
18 WILL LIKELY BE TIED TOMORROW. WE ALSO WILL KEEP THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 105 OR GREATER FOR ANY MONTH GOING WHICH MAY BREAK THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 DAYS SET 4 TIMES WITH THE LAST TIME BEING
IN 2000. LASTLY 2 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH HAD A LOW OF 90 WHICH IS A
HITHERTO UNKNOWN FOR JUNE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KLKN 290935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SYNOPIC PATTERN FEATURES
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OFF THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT MORE WARM
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO ON THE 29TH IS 86F
IN ELKO AND 89F IN WMC..WENT FOR A HIGH OF 99F AND 96F
RESPECTIVELY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE...THE REGION
SHOULD HANDILY SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JUNE.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...FUELING HIGH BASED CONVECTION. MODELS TREND TOWARDS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SO EXPECTING THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH RESPECT TO TSRA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.  INTERESTING SUBTLE
CHANGES COMING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR CONTINUED HOT.
HOWEVER...SOOOOOO HOT MEANS INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SO MORE
LIGHTNING IS HAPPENING EACH DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME LOWER
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT CULMINATING IN PW`S OF NEARLY 1.3"
BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD LIKE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
ACTUAL FORECASTS....BUT WILL BE CONTENT TO MENTION IT HERE. LOOKS
LIKE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN A SPORADIC SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD LATE
 IN THE WEEK. AS A COLLEAGUE SAYS..."IT LOOKS VERY MONSOONY". TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF A BIT UNDER CLOUDS...FROM HELLISHLY HOT TO MERELY TO
VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VERY HOT AND INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES. MOST LIKELY
AT KWMC AND KEKO. WILL KEEP AT VCTS AT ALL SITES...JUST BE AWARE OF
THE GREATER RISK AT THE TWO NORTHERN FIELDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE OF CONCERN OVER MOUNTAINS. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL
RESULT. STILL EXPECTING VFR AT ALL FIELDS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS WILL SPIKE THIS WEEK...AND THE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MONSOON LIKE PATTERN. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98



000
FXUS65 KLKN 290935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SYNOPIC PATTERN FEATURES
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OFF THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT MORE WARM
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO ON THE 29TH IS 86F
IN ELKO AND 89F IN WMC..WENT FOR A HIGH OF 99F AND 96F
RESPECTIVELY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE...THE REGION
SHOULD HANDILY SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JUNE.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...FUELING HIGH BASED CONVECTION. MODELS TREND TOWARDS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SO EXPECTING THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH RESPECT TO TSRA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.  INTERESTING SUBTLE
CHANGES COMING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR CONTINUED HOT.
HOWEVER...SOOOOOO HOT MEANS INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SO MORE
LIGHTNING IS HAPPENING EACH DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME LOWER
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT CULMINATING IN PW`S OF NEARLY 1.3"
BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD LIKE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
ACTUAL FORECASTS....BUT WILL BE CONTENT TO MENTION IT HERE. LOOKS
LIKE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN A SPORADIC SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD LATE
 IN THE WEEK. AS A COLLEAGUE SAYS..."IT LOOKS VERY MONSOONY". TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF A BIT UNDER CLOUDS...FROM HELLISHLY HOT TO MERELY TO
VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VERY HOT AND INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES. MOST LIKELY
AT KWMC AND KEKO. WILL KEEP AT VCTS AT ALL SITES...JUST BE AWARE OF
THE GREATER RISK AT THE TWO NORTHERN FIELDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE OF CONCERN OVER MOUNTAINS. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL
RESULT. STILL EXPECTING VFR AT ALL FIELDS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS WILL SPIKE THIS WEEK...AND THE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MONSOON LIKE PATTERN. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98




000
FXUS65 KLKN 290935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SYNOPIC PATTERN FEATURES
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OFF THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT MORE WARM
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO ON THE 29TH IS 86F
IN ELKO AND 89F IN WMC..WENT FOR A HIGH OF 99F AND 96F
RESPECTIVELY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE...THE REGION
SHOULD HANDILY SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JUNE.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...FUELING HIGH BASED CONVECTION. MODELS TREND TOWARDS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SO EXPECTING THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH RESPECT TO TSRA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.  INTERESTING SUBTLE
CHANGES COMING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR CONTINUED HOT.
HOWEVER...SOOOOOO HOT MEANS INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SO MORE
LIGHTNING IS HAPPENING EACH DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME LOWER
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT CULMINATING IN PW`S OF NEARLY 1.3"
BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD LIKE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
ACTUAL FORECASTS....BUT WILL BE CONTENT TO MENTION IT HERE. LOOKS
LIKE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN A SPORADIC SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD LATE
 IN THE WEEK. AS A COLLEAGUE SAYS..."IT LOOKS VERY MONSOONY". TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF A BIT UNDER CLOUDS...FROM HELLISHLY HOT TO MERELY TO
VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VERY HOT AND INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES. MOST LIKELY
AT KWMC AND KEKO. WILL KEEP AT VCTS AT ALL SITES...JUST BE AWARE OF
THE GREATER RISK AT THE TWO NORTHERN FIELDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE OF CONCERN OVER MOUNTAINS. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL
RESULT. STILL EXPECTING VFR AT ALL FIELDS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS WILL SPIKE THIS WEEK...AND THE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MONSOON LIKE PATTERN. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98




000
FXUS65 KREV 290858
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1" RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD INTO MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES, SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AS DEBRIS
FLOWS WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW, SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS, WE WOULD LIKE TO
REMIND FOLKS TO HAVE A PLAN FOR THE HOT TEMPERATURES, AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF POSSIBLE, AND TO STAY HYDRATED.
WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE RIDGE OVER NEVADA LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AND THE MOISTURE RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, AND THAT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY CONVECTION RETURNS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THEN, EXPECT
DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THE EC IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON, PREFER THE COOLER EC SOLUTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE GFS
SHOWING WARMING INTO SATURDAY WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL IN A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN LIKE THIS. NORMALLY, ONCE CONVECTION STARTS ALL ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SIERRA, TEMPS COOL AFTER THE FIRST DAY. A SLOW COOLING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THEN. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION WITH A 20 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TAKING A DIRECT HIT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 290858
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1" RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD INTO MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES, SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AS DEBRIS
FLOWS WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW, SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS, WE WOULD LIKE TO
REMIND FOLKS TO HAVE A PLAN FOR THE HOT TEMPERATURES, AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF POSSIBLE, AND TO STAY HYDRATED.
WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE RIDGE OVER NEVADA LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AND THE MOISTURE RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, AND THAT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY CONVECTION RETURNS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THEN, EXPECT
DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THE EC IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON, PREFER THE COOLER EC SOLUTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE GFS
SHOWING WARMING INTO SATURDAY WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL IN A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN LIKE THIS. NORMALLY, ONCE CONVECTION STARTS ALL ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SIERRA, TEMPS COOL AFTER THE FIRST DAY. A SLOW COOLING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THEN. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION WITH A 20 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TAKING A DIRECT HIT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 290332
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
832 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP SOUTH OF
LAKE TAHOE. THE LATEST NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR DO SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH. FORCING IS NOT
OVERWHELMING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ITS MERE PRESENCE ARGUES FOR
KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND GET UPDATES OUT
SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY HOT LEVELS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
5-10 DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE BASIN AND RANGE COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN
SHOWING STORMS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW WORKING ACROSS WESTERN
NV. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT AND ARE
WEAKER WITH THE OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE ALTHOUGH THEY DO STILL SHOW THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY
MAY NOT GET AS STRONG AS FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FROM
THE LACK OF AFTERNOON HEATING. THE WESTERN PART OF THE TAHOE BASIN
INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY HAS RECEIVED A LONGER DURATION OF
SUNSHINE WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED SOUTH OF MAMMOTH. THESE AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STORM INITIATION.

OTHERWISE, UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL EJECT TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHWEST NV FOR MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK QPF SIGNALS
THERE, BUT BELIEVE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
ABOUT I-80 WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVERALL IN THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
MAY DECREASE A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO
EXPAND WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
FOR BURN SCARS INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON FIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF HEAT
LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE WE JUST EXPERIENCED. WE ARE
CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR BASIN AND RANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MIDWEEK. HOHMANN

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO MAINTAIN A VERY HOT AIR MASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PREPARE FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK, WITH HIGHS WED-THU
85-95 FOR MOST SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND 100-110 FOR WESTERN NV.  THIS
STRETCH OF SEVERAL HOT DAYS ALONG WITH WARM NIGHTS MEANS THE RISK
FOR HEAT EXHAUSTION AND DEHYDRATION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE WORKING OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. CARRY EXTRA WATER AND PLAN TO CHECK ON ANYONE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT STRESS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
FORECASTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST, SO WE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST FOR A VERY
SLIGHT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. JCM

AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE TSRA THRU 03Z WITH A 20-30 PCT CHANCE
OF TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. FOR
WESTERN NV TERMINALS, INCLUDING KLOL, THESE WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. SMALL
THREAT OF STRONGER SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS (5 PCT AT ANY ONE
POINT). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS TODAY WITH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT CHANCE
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME WRN NV. WALLMANN/MITTELSTADT

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 290332
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
832 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP SOUTH OF
LAKE TAHOE. THE LATEST NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR DO SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH. FORCING IS NOT
OVERWHELMING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ITS MERE PRESENCE ARGUES FOR
KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND GET UPDATES OUT
SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY HOT LEVELS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
5-10 DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE BASIN AND RANGE COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN
SHOWING STORMS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW WORKING ACROSS WESTERN
NV. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT AND ARE
WEAKER WITH THE OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE ALTHOUGH THEY DO STILL SHOW THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY
MAY NOT GET AS STRONG AS FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FROM
THE LACK OF AFTERNOON HEATING. THE WESTERN PART OF THE TAHOE BASIN
INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY HAS RECEIVED A LONGER DURATION OF
SUNSHINE WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED SOUTH OF MAMMOTH. THESE AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STORM INITIATION.

OTHERWISE, UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL EJECT TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHWEST NV FOR MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK QPF SIGNALS
THERE, BUT BELIEVE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
ABOUT I-80 WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVERALL IN THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
MAY DECREASE A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO
EXPAND WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
FOR BURN SCARS INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON FIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF HEAT
LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE WE JUST EXPERIENCED. WE ARE
CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR BASIN AND RANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MIDWEEK. HOHMANN

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO MAINTAIN A VERY HOT AIR MASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PREPARE FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK, WITH HIGHS WED-THU
85-95 FOR MOST SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND 100-110 FOR WESTERN NV.  THIS
STRETCH OF SEVERAL HOT DAYS ALONG WITH WARM NIGHTS MEANS THE RISK
FOR HEAT EXHAUSTION AND DEHYDRATION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE WORKING OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. CARRY EXTRA WATER AND PLAN TO CHECK ON ANYONE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT STRESS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
FORECASTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST, SO WE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST FOR A VERY
SLIGHT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. JCM

AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE TSRA THRU 03Z WITH A 20-30 PCT CHANCE
OF TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. FOR
WESTERN NV TERMINALS, INCLUDING KLOL, THESE WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. SMALL
THREAT OF STRONGER SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS (5 PCT AT ANY ONE
POINT). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS TODAY WITH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT CHANCE
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME WRN NV. WALLMANN/MITTELSTADT

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 290332
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
832 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP SOUTH OF
LAKE TAHOE. THE LATEST NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR DO SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH. FORCING IS NOT
OVERWHELMING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ITS MERE PRESENCE ARGUES FOR
KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND GET UPDATES OUT
SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY HOT LEVELS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
5-10 DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE BASIN AND RANGE COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN
SHOWING STORMS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW WORKING ACROSS WESTERN
NV. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT AND ARE
WEAKER WITH THE OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE ALTHOUGH THEY DO STILL SHOW THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY
MAY NOT GET AS STRONG AS FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FROM
THE LACK OF AFTERNOON HEATING. THE WESTERN PART OF THE TAHOE BASIN
INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY HAS RECEIVED A LONGER DURATION OF
SUNSHINE WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED SOUTH OF MAMMOTH. THESE AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STORM INITIATION.

OTHERWISE, UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL EJECT TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHWEST NV FOR MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK QPF SIGNALS
THERE, BUT BELIEVE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
ABOUT I-80 WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVERALL IN THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
MAY DECREASE A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO
EXPAND WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
FOR BURN SCARS INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON FIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF HEAT
LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE WE JUST EXPERIENCED. WE ARE
CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR BASIN AND RANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MIDWEEK. HOHMANN

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO MAINTAIN A VERY HOT AIR MASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PREPARE FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK, WITH HIGHS WED-THU
85-95 FOR MOST SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND 100-110 FOR WESTERN NV.  THIS
STRETCH OF SEVERAL HOT DAYS ALONG WITH WARM NIGHTS MEANS THE RISK
FOR HEAT EXHAUSTION AND DEHYDRATION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE WORKING OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. CARRY EXTRA WATER AND PLAN TO CHECK ON ANYONE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT STRESS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
FORECASTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST, SO WE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST FOR A VERY
SLIGHT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. JCM

AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE TSRA THRU 03Z WITH A 20-30 PCT CHANCE
OF TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. FOR
WESTERN NV TERMINALS, INCLUDING KLOL, THESE WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. SMALL
THREAT OF STRONGER SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS (5 PCT AT ANY ONE
POINT). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS TODAY WITH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT CHANCE
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME WRN NV. WALLMANN/MITTELSTADT

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 290332
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
832 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP SOUTH OF
LAKE TAHOE. THE LATEST NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR DO SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH. FORCING IS NOT
OVERWHELMING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ITS MERE PRESENCE ARGUES FOR
KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND GET UPDATES OUT
SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY HOT LEVELS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
5-10 DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE BASIN AND RANGE COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN
SHOWING STORMS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW WORKING ACROSS WESTERN
NV. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT AND ARE
WEAKER WITH THE OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE ALTHOUGH THEY DO STILL SHOW THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY
MAY NOT GET AS STRONG AS FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FROM
THE LACK OF AFTERNOON HEATING. THE WESTERN PART OF THE TAHOE BASIN
INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY HAS RECEIVED A LONGER DURATION OF
SUNSHINE WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED SOUTH OF MAMMOTH. THESE AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STORM INITIATION.

OTHERWISE, UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL EJECT TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHWEST NV FOR MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK QPF SIGNALS
THERE, BUT BELIEVE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
ABOUT I-80 WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVERALL IN THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
MAY DECREASE A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO
EXPAND WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
FOR BURN SCARS INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON FIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF HEAT
LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE WE JUST EXPERIENCED. WE ARE
CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR BASIN AND RANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MIDWEEK. HOHMANN

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO MAINTAIN A VERY HOT AIR MASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PREPARE FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK, WITH HIGHS WED-THU
85-95 FOR MOST SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND 100-110 FOR WESTERN NV.  THIS
STRETCH OF SEVERAL HOT DAYS ALONG WITH WARM NIGHTS MEANS THE RISK
FOR HEAT EXHAUSTION AND DEHYDRATION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE WORKING OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. CARRY EXTRA WATER AND PLAN TO CHECK ON ANYONE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT STRESS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
FORECASTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST, SO WE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST FOR A VERY
SLIGHT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. JCM

AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE TSRA THRU 03Z WITH A 20-30 PCT CHANCE
OF TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. FOR
WESTERN NV TERMINALS, INCLUDING KLOL, THESE WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. SMALL
THREAT OF STRONGER SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS (5 PCT AT ANY ONE
POINT). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS TODAY WITH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT CHANCE
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME WRN NV. WALLMANN/MITTELSTADT

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRIONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAION
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRIONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAION
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRIONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAION
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ON
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ON
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ON
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRIONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAION
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 290227 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
727 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN IN
A WEAKENING STATE GENERALLY AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE
HERE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ON
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
WILL JUST BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH+ AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BLOWING DUST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN INYO AND
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SPRINKLES
BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM AREA RADARS. I WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED IN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ACROSS
CLARK COUNTY, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE AND POPS WERE REMOVED
HERE.

THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD DURING THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
BASES AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST LAYERS AOA 15K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR
CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 282157
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH. THE
RIDGE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA...AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALLOWING A MOIST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO AID IN THE
GENERATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD
COVER HAS HAMPERED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE SIERRA AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE WEST. THIS MOVEMENT AND OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS TO REACH THE
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD
DURING THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE
FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND
IN MOHAVE COUNTRY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 282157
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH. THE
RIDGE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA...AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALLOWING A MOIST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO AID IN THE
GENERATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD
COVER HAS HAMPERED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE SIERRA AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE WEST. THIS MOVEMENT AND OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS TO REACH THE
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD
DURING THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE
FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND
IN MOHAVE COUNTRY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

CZYZYK/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 282155
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE CAPE HAS REACHED 500 J/KG. CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN AN INTENSELY HEATED ATMOSPHERE, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH 8 PM. ANY
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SALT FLATS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE INTO NEVADA TONIGHT, SO KEPT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS, AND KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
QUITE WARM, IN THE 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS.

MONDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS THE
HOT UPPER HIGH MEANDERS OVER UTAH. A COUPLE DEGREES OF "COOLING"
EXPECTED AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 2 DEGREES C. STILL UPPER 90S, WITH
LOWEST/HOTTEST VALLEYS 100-103. NAM/GFS AGREE ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING, WITH VALUES AVERAGING NEAR 0.75 INCH BY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, AND WESTERN LANDER COUNTY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER NOON, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER ELKO COUNTY, WHERE NAM
CONTINUES TO PROG CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PW
IMPROVING TO NEAR/OVER THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, STORMS SHOULD BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL GETTING RAIN TO THE GROUND, WITH NO DRY CONVECTION
IN THE GRIDS.

TUESDAY...HOT UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARBY, SINKING SOUTH
A BIT TO NEAR CEDAR CITY/ELY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT IMPROVED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. 12/18Z NAM SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PW OF 1-1.1 INCH, WITH GFS NOT FAR
BEHIND AT 0.8-1.0 INCH. WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG, LIFTED INDEX TO
-4, AND THE CORE OF THE SUBSIDENCE SE OF THE CWA, CONFIDENT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASED THE POP GRIDS. WITH PW NEAR ONE INCH, STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, AND WITH GFS FORECASTING 700 MB FLOW OF 0-5
KTS, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW WITH FLASH FLOODING A THREAT. FOR
NOW, INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. MODERATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE RECEDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE TO DROP INTO THE CWA FROM NW TO SE. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND RESULT IN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. MAY SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR NEAR KWMC AND KEKO INTO THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KEKO AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF KWMC. NOT EXPECTING ANY TS
AT KELY OR KTPH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY OR ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY UPDRAFTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS BENEATH
THEM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MONDAY, INCREASING TO SCATTERED
FOR MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH PW
APPROACHING/NEAR ONE INCH, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, STORMS ON
TUESDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CWR WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM
THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH POSSIBLE FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT ALL
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION TO WET BY TUESDAY.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 282155
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE CAPE HAS REACHED 500 J/KG. CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN AN INTENSELY HEATED ATMOSPHERE, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH 8 PM. ANY
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SALT FLATS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE INTO NEVADA TONIGHT, SO KEPT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS, AND KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
QUITE WARM, IN THE 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS.

MONDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS THE
HOT UPPER HIGH MEANDERS OVER UTAH. A COUPLE DEGREES OF "COOLING"
EXPECTED AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 2 DEGREES C. STILL UPPER 90S, WITH
LOWEST/HOTTEST VALLEYS 100-103. NAM/GFS AGREE ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING, WITH VALUES AVERAGING NEAR 0.75 INCH BY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, AND WESTERN LANDER COUNTY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER NOON, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER ELKO COUNTY, WHERE NAM
CONTINUES TO PROG CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PW
IMPROVING TO NEAR/OVER THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, STORMS SHOULD BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL GETTING RAIN TO THE GROUND, WITH NO DRY CONVECTION
IN THE GRIDS.

TUESDAY...HOT UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARBY, SINKING SOUTH
A BIT TO NEAR CEDAR CITY/ELY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT IMPROVED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. 12/18Z NAM SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PW OF 1-1.1 INCH, WITH GFS NOT FAR
BEHIND AT 0.8-1.0 INCH. WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG, LIFTED INDEX TO
-4, AND THE CORE OF THE SUBSIDENCE SE OF THE CWA, CONFIDENT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASED THE POP GRIDS. WITH PW NEAR ONE INCH, STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, AND WITH GFS FORECASTING 700 MB FLOW OF 0-5
KTS, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW WITH FLASH FLOODING A THREAT. FOR
NOW, INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. MODERATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE RECEDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE TO DROP INTO THE CWA FROM NW TO SE. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND RESULT IN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. MAY SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR NEAR KWMC AND KEKO INTO THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KEKO AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF KWMC. NOT EXPECTING ANY TS
AT KELY OR KTPH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY OR ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY UPDRAFTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS BENEATH
THEM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MONDAY, INCREASING TO SCATTERED
FOR MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH PW
APPROACHING/NEAR ONE INCH, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, STORMS ON
TUESDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CWR WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM
THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH POSSIBLE FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT ALL
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION TO WET BY TUESDAY.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 282155
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE CAPE HAS REACHED 500 J/KG. CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN AN INTENSELY HEATED ATMOSPHERE, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH 8 PM. ANY
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SALT FLATS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE INTO NEVADA TONIGHT, SO KEPT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS, AND KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
QUITE WARM, IN THE 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS.

MONDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS THE
HOT UPPER HIGH MEANDERS OVER UTAH. A COUPLE DEGREES OF "COOLING"
EXPECTED AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 2 DEGREES C. STILL UPPER 90S, WITH
LOWEST/HOTTEST VALLEYS 100-103. NAM/GFS AGREE ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING, WITH VALUES AVERAGING NEAR 0.75 INCH BY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, AND WESTERN LANDER COUNTY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER NOON, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER ELKO COUNTY, WHERE NAM
CONTINUES TO PROG CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PW
IMPROVING TO NEAR/OVER THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, STORMS SHOULD BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL GETTING RAIN TO THE GROUND, WITH NO DRY CONVECTION
IN THE GRIDS.

TUESDAY...HOT UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARBY, SINKING SOUTH
A BIT TO NEAR CEDAR CITY/ELY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT IMPROVED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. 12/18Z NAM SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PW OF 1-1.1 INCH, WITH GFS NOT FAR
BEHIND AT 0.8-1.0 INCH. WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG, LIFTED INDEX TO
-4, AND THE CORE OF THE SUBSIDENCE SE OF THE CWA, CONFIDENT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASED THE POP GRIDS. WITH PW NEAR ONE INCH, STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, AND WITH GFS FORECASTING 700 MB FLOW OF 0-5
KTS, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW WITH FLASH FLOODING A THREAT. FOR
NOW, INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. MODERATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE RECEDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE TO DROP INTO THE CWA FROM NW TO SE. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND RESULT IN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. MAY SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR NEAR KWMC AND KEKO INTO THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KEKO AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF KWMC. NOT EXPECTING ANY TS
AT KELY OR KTPH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY OR ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY UPDRAFTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS BENEATH
THEM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MONDAY, INCREASING TO SCATTERED
FOR MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH PW
APPROACHING/NEAR ONE INCH, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, STORMS ON
TUESDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CWR WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM
THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH POSSIBLE FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT ALL
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION TO WET BY TUESDAY.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/96/96/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 282155
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE CAPE HAS REACHED 500 J/KG. CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN AN INTENSELY HEATED ATMOSPHERE, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH 8 PM. ANY
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SALT FLATS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE INTO NEVADA TONIGHT, SO KEPT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS, AND KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
QUITE WARM, IN THE 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS.

MONDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS THE
HOT UPPER HIGH MEANDERS OVER UTAH. A COUPLE DEGREES OF "COOLING"
EXPECTED AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 2 DEGREES C. STILL UPPER 90S, WITH
LOWEST/HOTTEST VALLEYS 100-103. NAM/GFS AGREE ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING, WITH VALUES AVERAGING NEAR 0.75 INCH BY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, AND WESTERN LANDER COUNTY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER NOON, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER ELKO COUNTY, WHERE NAM
CONTINUES TO PROG CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PW
IMPROVING TO NEAR/OVER THE 0.75 INCH THRESHOLD, STORMS SHOULD BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL GETTING RAIN TO THE GROUND, WITH NO DRY CONVECTION
IN THE GRIDS.

TUESDAY...HOT UPPER HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARBY, SINKING SOUTH
A BIT TO NEAR CEDAR CITY/ELY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT IMPROVED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. 12/18Z NAM SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PW OF 1-1.1 INCH, WITH GFS NOT FAR
BEHIND AT 0.8-1.0 INCH. WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG, LIFTED INDEX TO
-4, AND THE CORE OF THE SUBSIDENCE SE OF THE CWA, CONFIDENT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASED THE POP GRIDS. WITH PW NEAR ONE INCH, STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, AND WITH GFS FORECASTING 700 MB FLOW OF 0-5
KTS, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW WITH FLASH FLOODING A THREAT. FOR
NOW, INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. MODERATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE RECEDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE TO DROP INTO THE CWA FROM NW TO SE. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND RESULT IN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. MAY SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR NEAR KWMC AND KEKO INTO THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KEKO AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF KWMC. NOT EXPECTING ANY TS
AT KELY OR KTPH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY OR ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY UPDRAFTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS BENEATH
THEM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MONDAY, INCREASING TO SCATTERED
FOR MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH PW
APPROACHING/NEAR ONE INCH, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, STORMS ON
TUESDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CWR WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM
THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH POSSIBLE FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT ALL
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSITION TO WET BY TUESDAY.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/96/96/99




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