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000
FXUS65 KVEF 311726
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1026 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...TWEAKED THE WIND/POP/SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE...BUT DID BOOST SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. STILL EXPECTING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED
THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE WHAT WE OBSERVED SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY BUT
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF AUGUST.

ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE BULK OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH AS FUELED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR MT. TRUMBULL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE VERY SPARSE.  BY WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT SHOULD
DECREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST WEST OF
THE TIP OF BAJA THURSDAY MORNING AND GETTING PICKED UP BY THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD JUST CLIP MOHAVE
COUNTY. I DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES THERE YET BUT THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME PERHAPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL. A LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING THEN TRANSITION
TO SOUTH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.  AREAS OF SMOKE CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED IN THE
OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER


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000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 310957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 310957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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000
FXUS65 KLKN 310910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA FOR THE END
OF AUGUST AND THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

CLEAR CALM AND COOL ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DELIVER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NEVADA, ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AND NEAR
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE NAM HANGS ONTO WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY, WITH 2-4 DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SW WINDS INCREASE, AVERAGING 15-25
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND 20-30 MPH/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA.  BAT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAVOR OF TAKING AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SOME DISCREPANCIES ARE FOUND IN DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH GOES...AS WELL AS TIMING AND STRENGTH.

THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED ON THE
AMPLITUDE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
EVEN THOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE...BOTH MODELS ENHANCE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALONG WITH INCREASES WINDS FOR
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH OF THESE DAYS. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA THE FIRST HALF THE
THE WEEKEND IS SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS LIFTING IT NORTHEASTWARD. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAKES THE COOLEST
DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOW A REBOUND AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ADD A FEWS DEGREES TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  89

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 18Z-19Z
FROM EAST OF THE RUBIES SOUTH ACROSS WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.  89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MIN RH OF 8-14% FOR ALL FWZ. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 ACROSS FWZ 455
AND 457 THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...2-4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ. MIN RH REMAINS
NEAR 10% FOR ALL FWZ, WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS. WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH, AND LOCAL/BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SE FWZ 454, 455 AND 457 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WITH RH AS LOW AS 9%, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/89/89/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 310910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA FOR THE END
OF AUGUST AND THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

CLEAR CALM AND COOL ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DELIVER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NEVADA, ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AND NEAR
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE NAM HANGS ONTO WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY, WITH 2-4 DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SW WINDS INCREASE, AVERAGING 15-25
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND 20-30 MPH/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA.  BAT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAVOR OF TAKING AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SOME DISCREPANCIES ARE FOUND IN DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH GOES...AS WELL AS TIMING AND STRENGTH.

THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED ON THE
AMPLITUDE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
EVEN THOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE...BOTH MODELS ENHANCE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALONG WITH INCREASES WINDS FOR
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH OF THESE DAYS. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA THE FIRST HALF THE
THE WEEKEND IS SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS LIFTING IT NORTHEASTWARD. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAKES THE COOLEST
DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOW A REBOUND AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ADD A FEWS DEGREES TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  89

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 18Z-19Z
FROM EAST OF THE RUBIES SOUTH ACROSS WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.  89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MIN RH OF 8-14% FOR ALL FWZ. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 ACROSS FWZ 455
AND 457 THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...2-4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ. MIN RH REMAINS
NEAR 10% FOR ALL FWZ, WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS. WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH, AND LOCAL/BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SE FWZ 454, 455 AND 457 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WITH RH AS LOW AS 9%, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/89/89/99




000
FXUS65 KVEF 310902
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE WHAT WE OBSERVED SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY BUT
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF AUGUST.

ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE BULK OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH AS FUELED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR MT. TRUMBULL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE VERY SPARSE.  BY WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT SHOULD
DECREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST WEST OF
THE TIP OF BAJA THURSDAY MORNING AND GETTING PICKED UP BY THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD JUST CLIP MOHAVE
COUNTY. I DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES THERE YET BUT THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL. A LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING THEN TRANSITION
TO SOUTH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.  AREAS OF SMOKE CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED IN THE
OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 310902
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE WHAT WE OBSERVED SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY BUT
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF AUGUST.

ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE BULK OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH AS FUELED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR MT. TRUMBULL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE VERY SPARSE.  BY WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT SHOULD
DECREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST WEST OF
THE TIP OF BAJA THURSDAY MORNING AND GETTING PICKED UP BY THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT COULD JUST CLIP MOHAVE
COUNTY. I DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES THERE YET BUT THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL. A LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING THEN TRANSITION
TO SOUTH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.  AREAS OF SMOKE CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED IN THE
OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 310301
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. I
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 310301
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. I
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302343
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...KWMC METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
SOME TS OR LTG DSNT TODAY. THIS IS NOT CORRECT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING AT OR ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL...AND THERE IS NONE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD- UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302343
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...KWMC METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
SOME TS OR LTG DSNT TODAY. THIS IS NOT CORRECT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING AT OR ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL...AND THERE IS NONE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD- UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96/96



000
FXUS65 KLKN 302343
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...KWMC METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
SOME TS OR LTG DSNT TODAY. THIS IS NOT CORRECT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING AT OR ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL...AND THERE IS NONE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD- UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91



000
FXUS65 KVEF 302212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 302212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 302212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 302212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 302212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 302212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STUBBORN SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA HAS BEEN FILTERING SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH HANGS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH LESS
MONDAY THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ENHANCES THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
MAY DEVELOP MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR KBIH. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 301654
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
954 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO UTAH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DECREASING AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST HIGH LEVEL RH
FORECASTS INDICATE THIS TREND WHICH ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING REVEALED 2-3 DEGREES C OF
COOLING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB AND HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REFLECT THE BEGINNING OF THIS COOLING TREND. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK OKAY AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES NEEDED. -ADAIR-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW BEING SUBDUED AND PUSHED MORE INTO ARIZONA LEAVING
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOONS WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS AGAIN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NOTHING
OVERLY SUBSTANTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWNWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERIODS
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WHILE
UNLIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE..JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
NEAR KBIH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 301543
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
843 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING
TO SOME AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA. WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION
ALOFT. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME WAVE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SURFACING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SO THESE WERE INCREASED. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 301543
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
843 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING
TO SOME AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA. WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION
ALOFT. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME WAVE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SURFACING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SO THESE WERE INCREASED. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 300956 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 300956 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 300956 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 300953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES FOR
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 300953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES FOR
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KLKN 300920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA TODAY...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. COOL
TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT. WARM AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS OVER NEVADA TODAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT HANGS UP
STATIONARY OVER NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO FALL A GOOD 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, A WELCOME RELIEF FOR THE AIR CONDITIONERS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35 MPH, EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80 THIS AFTERNOON. SKY WILL TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS PW PLUMMETS TO NEAR 1/4 INCH.
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANG ON THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
STALLED/DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
LIFTED INDEX FALLS TO -2C ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH PW ONLY HANGING ON TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH, EXPECTING ONLY CUMULUS
BUILDUPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SE ZONES ON THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE, BUT 00/06Z
NAM FORECAST LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL, WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MANY. FALL IS GETTING CLOSER.

MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WASTE NO TIME
BOUNCING BACK, WITH 5-7 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER SUNDAY`S READINGS.
STILL BREEZY, WITH SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES,
15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. VERY WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH NAM KEEPING PW AROUND 0.50 INCH IN THESE ZONES ALONG WITH
LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -2C. KEPT FORECAST DRY, BUT AN
ISOLATED/DRY THUNDERSTORM IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BAT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
FEATURED DURING MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AS A RESULT...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY THAN MONDAY`S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SOUTH...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
CAUSING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WITH THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE BEST ALBEIT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER ELKO COUNTY RESULTING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH DRY AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 89

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BUILD ESPECIALLY
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY W/SW WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA
AFTER NOON TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (15-25 MPH, GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN FWZ 468, FWZ 469, AND NORTHERN
FWZ 470. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY, AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, AND IT NOW APPEARS MIN RH
FALL TO 10-15% ACROSS FWZ 468, 469, AND 470. LOCALIZED/BRIEF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE TODAY.

CONVECTION VERY LIMITED TODAY, WITH ONLY CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FWZ 455/457.

MONDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 10-20 MPH,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN CENTRAL NEVADA. BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99/89/89/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 300920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA TODAY...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. COOL
TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT. WARM AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS OVER NEVADA TODAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT HANGS UP
STATIONARY OVER NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO FALL A GOOD 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, A WELCOME RELIEF FOR THE AIR CONDITIONERS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35 MPH, EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80 THIS AFTERNOON. SKY WILL TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS PW PLUMMETS TO NEAR 1/4 INCH.
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANG ON THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
STALLED/DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
LIFTED INDEX FALLS TO -2C ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH PW ONLY HANGING ON TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH, EXPECTING ONLY CUMULUS
BUILDUPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SE ZONES ON THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE, BUT 00/06Z
NAM FORECAST LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL, WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MANY. FALL IS GETTING CLOSER.

MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WASTE NO TIME
BOUNCING BACK, WITH 5-7 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER SUNDAY`S READINGS.
STILL BREEZY, WITH SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES,
15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. VERY WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH NAM KEEPING PW AROUND 0.50 INCH IN THESE ZONES ALONG WITH
LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -2C. KEPT FORECAST DRY, BUT AN
ISOLATED/DRY THUNDERSTORM IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BAT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
FEATURED DURING MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AS A RESULT...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY THAN MONDAY`S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SOUTH...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
CAUSING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WITH THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE BEST ALBEIT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER ELKO COUNTY RESULTING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH DRY AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 89

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BUILD ESPECIALLY
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY W/SW WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA
AFTER NOON TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (15-25 MPH, GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN FWZ 468, FWZ 469, AND NORTHERN
FWZ 470. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY, AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, AND IT NOW APPEARS MIN RH
FALL TO 10-15% ACROSS FWZ 468, 469, AND 470. LOCALIZED/BRIEF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE TODAY.

CONVECTION VERY LIMITED TODAY, WITH ONLY CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FWZ 455/457.

MONDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 10-20 MPH,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN CENTRAL NEVADA. BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99/89/89/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 300920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA TODAY...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. COOL
TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT. WARM AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS OVER NEVADA TODAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT HANGS UP
STATIONARY OVER NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO FALL A GOOD 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, A WELCOME RELIEF FOR THE AIR CONDITIONERS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35 MPH, EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80 THIS AFTERNOON. SKY WILL TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS PW PLUMMETS TO NEAR 1/4 INCH.
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANG ON THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
STALLED/DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
LIFTED INDEX FALLS TO -2C ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH PW ONLY HANGING ON TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH, EXPECTING ONLY CUMULUS
BUILDUPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SE ZONES ON THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE, BUT 00/06Z
NAM FORECAST LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL, WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MANY. FALL IS GETTING CLOSER.

MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WASTE NO TIME
BOUNCING BACK, WITH 5-7 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER SUNDAY`S READINGS.
STILL BREEZY, WITH SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES,
15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. VERY WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH NAM KEEPING PW AROUND 0.50 INCH IN THESE ZONES ALONG WITH
LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -2C. KEPT FORECAST DRY, BUT AN
ISOLATED/DRY THUNDERSTORM IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BAT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
FEATURED DURING MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AS A RESULT...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY THAN MONDAY`S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SOUTH...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
CAUSING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WITH THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE BEST ALBEIT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER ELKO COUNTY RESULTING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH DRY AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 89

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BUILD ESPECIALLY
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY W/SW WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA
AFTER NOON TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (15-25 MPH, GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN FWZ 468, FWZ 469, AND NORTHERN
FWZ 470. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY, AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, AND IT NOW APPEARS MIN RH
FALL TO 10-15% ACROSS FWZ 468, 469, AND 470. LOCALIZED/BRIEF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE TODAY.

CONVECTION VERY LIMITED TODAY, WITH ONLY CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FWZ 455/457.

MONDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 10-20 MPH,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN CENTRAL NEVADA. BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99/89/89/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 300920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA TODAY...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. COOL
TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT. WARM AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS OVER NEVADA TODAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT HANGS UP
STATIONARY OVER NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO FALL A GOOD 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, A WELCOME RELIEF FOR THE AIR CONDITIONERS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35 MPH, EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80 THIS AFTERNOON. SKY WILL TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS PW PLUMMETS TO NEAR 1/4 INCH.
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANG ON THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
STALLED/DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
LIFTED INDEX FALLS TO -2C ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH PW ONLY HANGING ON TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH, EXPECTING ONLY CUMULUS
BUILDUPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SE ZONES ON THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE, BUT 00/06Z
NAM FORECAST LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL, WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MANY. FALL IS GETTING CLOSER.

MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WASTE NO TIME
BOUNCING BACK, WITH 5-7 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER SUNDAY`S READINGS.
STILL BREEZY, WITH SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES,
15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. VERY WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH NAM KEEPING PW AROUND 0.50 INCH IN THESE ZONES ALONG WITH
LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -2C. KEPT FORECAST DRY, BUT AN
ISOLATED/DRY THUNDERSTORM IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BAT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
FEATURED DURING MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AS A RESULT...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY THAN MONDAY`S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SOUTH...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
CAUSING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WITH THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE BEST ALBEIT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER ELKO COUNTY RESULTING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH DRY AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 89

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BUILD ESPECIALLY
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY W/SW WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA
AFTER NOON TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (15-25 MPH, GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN FWZ 468, FWZ 469, AND NORTHERN
FWZ 470. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY, AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, AND IT NOW APPEARS MIN RH
FALL TO 10-15% ACROSS FWZ 468, 469, AND 470. LOCALIZED/BRIEF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE TODAY.

CONVECTION VERY LIMITED TODAY, WITH ONLY CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FWZ 455/457.

MONDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 10-20 MPH,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN CENTRAL NEVADA. BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99/89/89/99



000
FXUS65 KVEF 300857
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW BEING SUBDUED AND PUSHED MORE INTO ARIZONA LEAVING
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOONS WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS AGAIN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NOTHING
OVERLY SUBSTANCIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWNWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERIODS
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WHILE
UNLIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE..JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
NEAR KBIH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 300857
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW BEING SUBDUED AND PUSHED MORE INTO ARIZONA LEAVING
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOONS WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS AGAIN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NOTHING
OVERLY SUBSTANCIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWNWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERIODS
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WHILE
UNLIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE..JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
NEAR KBIH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300857
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW BEING SUBDUED AND PUSHED MORE INTO ARIZONA LEAVING
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOONS WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS AGAIN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NOTHING
OVERLY SUBSTANCIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWNWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERIODS
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WHILE
UNLIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE..JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
NEAR KBIH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 300515
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1015 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. WARMER AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SENT OUT UPDATED ZFP FOR EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 PM /

SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 300515
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1015 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. WARMER AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SENT OUT UPDATED ZFP FOR EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 PM /

SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 300515
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1015 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. WARMER AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SENT OUT UPDATED ZFP FOR EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 PM /

SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 300515
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1015 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. WARMER AFTERNOONS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SENT OUT UPDATED ZFP FOR EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 PM /

SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KVEF 300300
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
EXPANDING CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 15. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300300
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
EXPANDING CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 15. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300300
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
EXPANDING CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 15. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 300118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 300118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KLKN 292244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91



000
FXUS65 KLKN 292244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91



000
FXUS65 KLKN 292244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91



000
FXUS65 KLKN 292244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91



000
FXUS65 KLKN 292244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91



000
FXUS65 KLKN 292244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE COMMON WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY BUT STILL BREEZY ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
DRY AND WARMER MONDAY WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LESS IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS STILL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REMNANT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY ON
FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK.
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL...WITH ROUGHLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KEKO AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KEKO...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KELY.
SKIES SCATTER/CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LESS CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY TOO WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH RH
LESS THAN 15 PCT ARE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 457. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST NV WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KVEF 292204
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 292204
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 292204
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 292204
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 292154
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 292154
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA
ON TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE, AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

WE WILL BE MAKING UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS, AND ALSO TO SIMPLIFY
EXPIRATION TIMES.

NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV: WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED 40-45 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NV, BUT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE. WE WILL STILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TAHOE BASIN: WE WILL LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TAKE OVER AND
REPLACE THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORY AT 11 AM. RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE BASIN DID NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 2-3 FEET.

RENO-CARSON-MONO COUNTY: THIS IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT WE
WILL EXTEND THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 6 PM (TO MATCH
TIME WITH THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV). WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN IN THESE ZONES AND WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EVENT, BUT WE DIDN`T
WANT TO PREMATURELY DROP ALL ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MJD

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING BECOMING WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF REGION TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. MORE TYPICAL
WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE CONCERNING WINDS, BLOWING DUST, OR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE
STILL ON TRACK SHOWING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN
SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VALLEY GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS.

IMPACTS FROM WINDS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, BLOWING DUST FROM AREA SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSECURED PATIO FURNITURE OR CAMPING GEAR TO BE
BLOWN OVER, AND SOME POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE. WINDS DO BEGIN TO DROP
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO THE
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER TAHOE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35
MPH. WINDS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BECOME SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THE AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE. THIS COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERALLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 45-55 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THOSE IN SIERRA
VALLEYS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE.

FINALLY, ADDED SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SCOUR THIS AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY, BUT HAZE AND SMOKE COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MONDAY SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS BY
THEN. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SMOKE CAN FILTER NORTHWARD
OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT BEARS MENTIONING. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
PERIOD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM TUE-THU
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE CONTINUITY IN
TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CHANGES AND TIMING REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
AND WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
THIS WAVE BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVING IT WELL. THIS
MORNING, WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS WERE NOW
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS WELL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN NV
LATER THIS MORNING, A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TURN WINDS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NV WITH PERIODS
OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. WINDS WILL TAPER THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE GRADIENTS RELAX.

AS FAR AS THE SMOKE NEAR KMMH, MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE
NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. NOW IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS EVENING
WHEN IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND PUSH THE SMOKE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF AREA FOR SUNDAY.
THE BREAK MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO PLANNED CHANGES
IN TIMING OR AFFECTED LOCATIONS, WITH PROJECTED PEAK WIND/GUST
SPEEDS ALSO ON TRACK. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES, AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FOOTHILL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 95. IN THESE AREAS HUMIDITY WILL NOT FALL VERY MUCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY RISE FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE THE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH MINIMUM RH PERCENTAGES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT, IMPROVED HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO THE 10-15%
RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. MJD/WH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA
ON TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE, AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

WE WILL BE MAKING UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS, AND ALSO TO SIMPLIFY
EXPIRATION TIMES.

NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV: WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED 40-45 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NV, BUT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE. WE WILL STILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TAHOE BASIN: WE WILL LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TAKE OVER AND
REPLACE THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORY AT 11 AM. RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE BASIN DID NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 2-3 FEET.

RENO-CARSON-MONO COUNTY: THIS IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT WE
WILL EXTEND THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 6 PM (TO MATCH
TIME WITH THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV). WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN IN THESE ZONES AND WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EVENT, BUT WE DIDN`T
WANT TO PREMATURELY DROP ALL ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MJD

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING BECOMING WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF REGION TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. MORE TYPICAL
WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE CONCERNING WINDS, BLOWING DUST, OR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE
STILL ON TRACK SHOWING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN
SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VALLEY GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS.

IMPACTS FROM WINDS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, BLOWING DUST FROM AREA SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSECURED PATIO FURNITURE OR CAMPING GEAR TO BE
BLOWN OVER, AND SOME POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE. WINDS DO BEGIN TO DROP
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO THE
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER TAHOE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35
MPH. WINDS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BECOME SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THE AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE. THIS COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERALLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 45-55 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THOSE IN SIERRA
VALLEYS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE.

FINALLY, ADDED SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SCOUR THIS AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY, BUT HAZE AND SMOKE COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MONDAY SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS BY
THEN. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SMOKE CAN FILTER NORTHWARD
OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT BEARS MENTIONING. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
PERIOD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM TUE-THU
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE CONTINUITY IN
TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CHANGES AND TIMING REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
AND WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
THIS WAVE BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVING IT WELL. THIS
MORNING, WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS WERE NOW
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS WELL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN NV
LATER THIS MORNING, A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TURN WINDS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NV WITH PERIODS
OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. WINDS WILL TAPER THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE GRADIENTS RELAX.

AS FAR AS THE SMOKE NEAR KMMH, MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE
NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. NOW IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS EVENING
WHEN IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND PUSH THE SMOKE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF AREA FOR SUNDAY.
THE BREAK MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO PLANNED CHANGES
IN TIMING OR AFFECTED LOCATIONS, WITH PROJECTED PEAK WIND/GUST
SPEEDS ALSO ON TRACK. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES, AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FOOTHILL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 95. IN THESE AREAS HUMIDITY WILL NOT FALL VERY MUCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY RISE FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE THE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH MINIMUM RH PERCENTAGES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT, IMPROVED HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO THE 10-15%
RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. MJD/WH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA
ON TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE, AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

WE WILL BE MAKING UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS, AND ALSO TO SIMPLIFY
EXPIRATION TIMES.

NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV: WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED 40-45 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NV, BUT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE. WE WILL STILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TAHOE BASIN: WE WILL LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TAKE OVER AND
REPLACE THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORY AT 11 AM. RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE BASIN DID NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 2-3 FEET.

RENO-CARSON-MONO COUNTY: THIS IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT WE
WILL EXTEND THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 6 PM (TO MATCH
TIME WITH THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV). WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN IN THESE ZONES AND WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EVENT, BUT WE DIDN`T
WANT TO PREMATURELY DROP ALL ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MJD

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING BECOMING WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF REGION TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. MORE TYPICAL
WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE CONCERNING WINDS, BLOWING DUST, OR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE
STILL ON TRACK SHOWING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN
SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VALLEY GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS.

IMPACTS FROM WINDS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, BLOWING DUST FROM AREA SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSECURED PATIO FURNITURE OR CAMPING GEAR TO BE
BLOWN OVER, AND SOME POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE. WINDS DO BEGIN TO DROP
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO THE
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER TAHOE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35
MPH. WINDS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BECOME SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THE AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE. THIS COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERALLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 45-55 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THOSE IN SIERRA
VALLEYS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE.

FINALLY, ADDED SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SCOUR THIS AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY, BUT HAZE AND SMOKE COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MONDAY SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS BY
THEN. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SMOKE CAN FILTER NORTHWARD
OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT BEARS MENTIONING. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
PERIOD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM TUE-THU
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE CONTINUITY IN
TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CHANGES AND TIMING REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
AND WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
THIS WAVE BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVING IT WELL. THIS
MORNING, WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS WERE NOW
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS WELL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN NV
LATER THIS MORNING, A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TURN WINDS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NV WITH PERIODS
OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. WINDS WILL TAPER THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE GRADIENTS RELAX.

AS FAR AS THE SMOKE NEAR KMMH, MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE
NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. NOW IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS EVENING
WHEN IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND PUSH THE SMOKE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF AREA FOR SUNDAY.
THE BREAK MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO PLANNED CHANGES
IN TIMING OR AFFECTED LOCATIONS, WITH PROJECTED PEAK WIND/GUST
SPEEDS ALSO ON TRACK. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES, AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FOOTHILL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 95. IN THESE AREAS HUMIDITY WILL NOT FALL VERY MUCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY RISE FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE THE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH MINIMUM RH PERCENTAGES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT, IMPROVED HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO THE 10-15%
RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. MJD/WH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA
ON TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE, AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

WE WILL BE MAKING UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS, AND ALSO TO SIMPLIFY
EXPIRATION TIMES.

NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV: WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED 40-45 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NV, BUT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE. WE WILL STILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TAHOE BASIN: WE WILL LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TAKE OVER AND
REPLACE THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORY AT 11 AM. RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE BASIN DID NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 2-3 FEET.

RENO-CARSON-MONO COUNTY: THIS IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT WE
WILL EXTEND THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 6 PM (TO MATCH
TIME WITH THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV). WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN IN THESE ZONES AND WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EVENT, BUT WE DIDN`T
WANT TO PREMATURELY DROP ALL ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MJD

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING BECOMING WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF REGION TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. MORE TYPICAL
WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE CONCERNING WINDS, BLOWING DUST, OR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE
STILL ON TRACK SHOWING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN
SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VALLEY GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS.

IMPACTS FROM WINDS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, BLOWING DUST FROM AREA SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSECURED PATIO FURNITURE OR CAMPING GEAR TO BE
BLOWN OVER, AND SOME POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE. WINDS DO BEGIN TO DROP
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO THE
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER TAHOE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35
MPH. WINDS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BECOME SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THE AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE. THIS COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERALLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 45-55 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THOSE IN SIERRA
VALLEYS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE.

FINALLY, ADDED SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SCOUR THIS AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY, BUT HAZE AND SMOKE COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MONDAY SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS BY
THEN. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SMOKE CAN FILTER NORTHWARD
OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT BEARS MENTIONING. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
PERIOD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM TUE-THU
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE CONTINUITY IN
TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CHANGES AND TIMING REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
AND WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
THIS WAVE BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVING IT WELL. THIS
MORNING, WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS WERE NOW
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS WELL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN NV
LATER THIS MORNING, A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TURN WINDS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NV WITH PERIODS
OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. WINDS WILL TAPER THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE GRADIENTS RELAX.

AS FAR AS THE SMOKE NEAR KMMH, MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE
NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. NOW IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS EVENING
WHEN IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND PUSH THE SMOKE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF AREA FOR SUNDAY.
THE BREAK MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO PLANNED CHANGES
IN TIMING OR AFFECTED LOCATIONS, WITH PROJECTED PEAK WIND/GUST
SPEEDS ALSO ON TRACK. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES, AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FOOTHILL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 95. IN THESE AREAS HUMIDITY WILL NOT FALL VERY MUCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY RISE FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE THE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH MINIMUM RH PERCENTAGES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT, IMPROVED HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO THE 10-15%
RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. MJD/WH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA
ON TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE, AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

WE WILL BE MAKING UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS, AND ALSO TO SIMPLIFY
EXPIRATION TIMES.

NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV: WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED 40-45 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NV, BUT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE. WE WILL STILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TAHOE BASIN: WE WILL LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TAKE OVER AND
REPLACE THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORY AT 11 AM. RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE BASIN DID NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 2-3 FEET.

RENO-CARSON-MONO COUNTY: THIS IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT WE
WILL EXTEND THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 6 PM (TO MATCH
TIME WITH THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV). WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN IN THESE ZONES AND WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EVENT, BUT WE DIDN`T
WANT TO PREMATURELY DROP ALL ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MJD

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING BECOMING WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF REGION TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. MORE TYPICAL
WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE CONCERNING WINDS, BLOWING DUST, OR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE
STILL ON TRACK SHOWING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN
SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VALLEY GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS.

IMPACTS FROM WINDS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, BLOWING DUST FROM AREA SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSECURED PATIO FURNITURE OR CAMPING GEAR TO BE
BLOWN OVER, AND SOME POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE. WINDS DO BEGIN TO DROP
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO THE
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER TAHOE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35
MPH. WINDS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BECOME SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THE AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE. THIS COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERALLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 45-55 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THOSE IN SIERRA
VALLEYS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE.

FINALLY, ADDED SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SCOUR THIS AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY, BUT HAZE AND SMOKE COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MONDAY SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS BY
THEN. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SMOKE CAN FILTER NORTHWARD
OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT BEARS MENTIONING. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
PERIOD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM TUE-THU
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE CONTINUITY IN
TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CHANGES AND TIMING REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
AND WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
THIS WAVE BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVING IT WELL. THIS
MORNING, WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS WERE NOW
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS WELL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN NV
LATER THIS MORNING, A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TURN WINDS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NV WITH PERIODS
OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. WINDS WILL TAPER THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE GRADIENTS RELAX.

AS FAR AS THE SMOKE NEAR KMMH, MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE
NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. NOW IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS EVENING
WHEN IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND PUSH THE SMOKE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF AREA FOR SUNDAY.
THE BREAK MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO PLANNED CHANGES
IN TIMING OR AFFECTED LOCATIONS, WITH PROJECTED PEAK WIND/GUST
SPEEDS ALSO ON TRACK. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES, AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FOOTHILL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 95. IN THESE AREAS HUMIDITY WILL NOT FALL VERY MUCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY RISE FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE THE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH MINIMUM RH PERCENTAGES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT, IMPROVED HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO THE 10-15%
RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. MJD/WH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 291904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA
ON TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE, AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

WE WILL BE MAKING UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS, AND ALSO TO SIMPLIFY
EXPIRATION TIMES.

NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV: WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED 40-45 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NV, BUT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE. WE WILL STILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TAHOE BASIN: WE WILL LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TAKE OVER AND
REPLACE THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORY AT 11 AM. RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE BASIN DID NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 2-3 FEET.

RENO-CARSON-MONO COUNTY: THIS IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT WE
WILL EXTEND THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 6 PM (TO MATCH
TIME WITH THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV). WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN IN THESE ZONES AND WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EVENT, BUT WE DIDN`T
WANT TO PREMATURELY DROP ALL ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MJD

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING BECOMING WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF REGION TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. MORE TYPICAL
WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE CONCERNING WINDS, BLOWING DUST, OR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE
STILL ON TRACK SHOWING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN
SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VALLEY GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS.

IMPACTS FROM WINDS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, BLOWING DUST FROM AREA SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSECURED PATIO FURNITURE OR CAMPING GEAR TO BE
BLOWN OVER, AND SOME POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE. WINDS DO BEGIN TO DROP
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO THE
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER TAHOE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35
MPH. WINDS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BECOME SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THE AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE. THIS COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERALLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 45-55 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THOSE IN SIERRA
VALLEYS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE.

FINALLY, ADDED SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SCOUR THIS AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY, BUT HAZE AND SMOKE COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MONDAY SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS BY
THEN. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SMOKE CAN FILTER NORTHWARD
OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT BEARS MENTIONING. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
PERIOD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM TUE-THU
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE CONTINUITY IN
TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CHANGES AND TIMING REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
AND WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
THIS WAVE BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVING IT WELL. THIS
MORNING, WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS WERE NOW
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS WELL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN NV
LATER THIS MORNING, A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TURN WINDS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NV WITH PERIODS
OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. WINDS WILL TAPER THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE GRADIENTS RELAX.

AS FAR AS THE SMOKE NEAR KMMH, MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE
NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. NOW IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS EVENING
WHEN IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND PUSH THE SMOKE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF AREA FOR SUNDAY.
THE BREAK MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO PLANNED CHANGES
IN TIMING OR AFFECTED LOCATIONS, WITH PROJECTED PEAK WIND/GUST
SPEEDS ALSO ON TRACK. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES, AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FOOTHILL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 95. IN THESE AREAS HUMIDITY WILL NOT FALL VERY MUCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY RISE FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE THE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH MINIMUM RH PERCENTAGES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT, IMPROVED HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO THE 10-15%
RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. MJD/WH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 291801
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1101 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WE WILL BE MAKING UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS, AND ALSO TO SIMPLIFY
EXPIRATION TIMES.

NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV: WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED 40-45 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NV, BUT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE. WE WILL STILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TAHOE BASIN: WE WILL LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TAKE OVER AND
REPLACE THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORY AT 11 AM. RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE BASIN DID NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 2-3 FEET.

RENO-CARSON-MONO COUNTY: THIS IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT WE
WILL EXTEND THE REGULAR WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 6 PM (TO MATCH
TIME WITH THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV). WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN IN THESE ZONES AND WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EVENT, BUT WE DIDN`T
WANT TO PREMATURELY DROP ALL ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING BECOMING WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF REGION TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. MORE TYPICAL
WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE CONCERNING WINDS, BLOWING DUST, OR
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE
STILL ON TRACK SHOWING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN
SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VALLEY GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS.

IMPACTS FROM WINDS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, BLOWING DUST FROM AREA SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSECURED PATIO FURNITURE OR CAMPING GEAR TO BE
BLOWN OVER, AND SOME POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE. WINDS DO BEGIN TO DROP
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO THE
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER TAHOE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35
MPH. WINDS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BECOME SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THE AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE. THIS COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERALLY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 45-55 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THOSE IN SIERRA
VALLEYS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE.

FINALLY, ADDED SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SCOUR THIS AREA
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY, BUT HAZE AND SMOKE COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MONDAY SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS BY
THEN. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SMOKE CAN FILTER NORTHWARD
OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT BEARS MENTIONING. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
PERIOD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM TUE-THU
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE CONTINUITY IN
TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CHANGES AND TIMING REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
AND WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
THIS WAVE BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVING IT WELL. THIS
MORNING, WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS WERE NOW
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS WELL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN NV
LATER THIS MORNING, A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TURN WINDS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NV WITH PERIODS
OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. WINDS WILL TAPER THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE GRADIENTS RELAX.

AS FAR AS THE SMOKE NEAR KMMH, MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE
NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. NOW IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS EVENING
WHEN IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND PUSH THE SMOKE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF AREA FOR SUNDAY.
THE BREAK MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO PLANNED CHANGES
IN TIMING OR AFFECTED LOCATIONS, WITH PROJECTED PEAK WIND/GUST
SPEEDS ALSO ON TRACK. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES, AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FOOTHILL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 95. IN THESE AREAS HUMIDITY WILL NOT FALL VERY MUCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY RISE FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE THE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH MINIMUM RH PERCENTAGES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT, IMPROVED HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO THE 10-15%
RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. MJD/WH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY CAZ272.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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