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000
FXUS65 KVEF 281622 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
922 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START EXPANDING WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HELPING TO DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS CREPT FURTHER WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WITHIN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT AT NEEDLES IN THE LOWER 30S WHILE YUMA IS IN THE MID 60S.
HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION STAYING CONFINED TO DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY/THIS EVENING. A FEW MODELS STILL SUGGESTING
DEBRIS CLOUDS/SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MAKING IT WESTWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND FAR SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHAT I`VE
SEEN OF THE 12Z DATA INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS TAKING THIS
INITIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE MORE WESTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS ON A LINE
SOUTH OF BAKER-SEARCHLIGHT-KINGMAN FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO
UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...215 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST
AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ALSO
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SO FAR NONE OF THE IPW SENSORS ARE SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE...BUT IS SUSPECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL START TO
SEE THE SOUTHERN MOST SENSORS REFLECT THIS MOISTURE INCREASE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTION OF MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH IS PROBABLY A BIT
EARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD HELP DEVELOP STORMS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH
COVERING SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE 1.5 INCH LINE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SAN BERN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AND THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CLARK. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTY THURSDAY WITH WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. AS FOR ANY
DISTURBANCES...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COULD INFLUENCE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. HOWEVER...ANY SPECIFIC PLACEMENT IS TOUGH
TO CALL AND LEFT CURRENT POP GRIDS ALONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MOJAVE DESERT
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION ROLLING INTO VALLEYS. DO
NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALIES THAT WOULD HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION ANY PARTICULAR DAY. SO, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OR STORMS AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BATTLING OVER WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK OR DRY OUT SOONER. THE ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEFS AND NAEFS SUGGEST SLIGHT DRYING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY, WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THE LATEST GFS KEEPS THE HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
AND THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN FOR OUR AREA. THIS IS IN CONTRAST WITH
IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, RAISING UNCERTAINTY. MODELS OFTEN WANT TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE TOO SOON WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. SO, WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP POPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY, WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND FOR TUESDAY.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD UNTIL WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
INFLUX OVER THE WEEKEND AND JUST WHEN/IF THE DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 281622 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
922 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START EXPANDING WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HELPING TO DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS CREPT FURTHER WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WITHIN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT AT NEEDLES IN THE LOWER 30S WHILE YUMA IS IN THE MID 60S.
HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION STAYING CONFINED TO DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY/THIS EVENING. A FEW MODELS STILL SUGGESTING
DEBRIS CLOUDS/SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MAKING IT WESTWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND FAR SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHAT I`VE
SEEN OF THE 12Z DATA INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS TAKING THIS
INITIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE MORE WESTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS ON A LINE
SOUTH OF BAKER-SEARCHLIGHT-KINGMAN FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO
UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...215 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST
AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ALSO
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SO FAR NONE OF THE IPW SENSORS ARE SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE...BUT IS SUSPECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL START TO
SEE THE SOUTHERN MOST SENSORS REFLECT THIS MOISTURE INCREASE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTION OF MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH IS PROBABLY A BIT
EARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD HELP DEVELOP STORMS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH
COVERING SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE 1.5 INCH LINE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SAN BERN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AND THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CLARK. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTY THURSDAY WITH WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. AS FOR ANY
DISTURBANCES...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COULD INFLUENCE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. HOWEVER...ANY SPECIFIC PLACEMENT IS TOUGH
TO CALL AND LEFT CURRENT POP GRIDS ALONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MOJAVE DESERT
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION ROLLING INTO VALLEYS. DO
NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALIES THAT WOULD HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION ANY PARTICULAR DAY. SO, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OR STORMS AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BATTLING OVER WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK OR DRY OUT SOONER. THE ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEFS AND NAEFS SUGGEST SLIGHT DRYING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY, WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THE LATEST GFS KEEPS THE HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
AND THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN FOR OUR AREA. THIS IS IN CONTRAST WITH
IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, RAISING UNCERTAINTY. MODELS OFTEN WANT TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE TOO SOON WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. SO, WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP POPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY, WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND FOR TUESDAY.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD UNTIL WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
INFLUX OVER THE WEEKEND AND JUST WHEN/IF THE DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 280918
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START EXPANDING WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HELPING TO DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST
AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ALSO
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SO FAR NONE OF THE IPW SENSORS ARE SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE...BUT IS SUSPECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL START TO
SEE THE SOUTHERN MOST SENSORS REFLECT THIS MOISTURE INCREASE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTION OF MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH IS PROBABLY A BIT
EARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD HELP DEVELOP STORMS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH
COVERING SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE 1.5 INCH LINE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SAN BERN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AND THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CLARK. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTY THURSDAY WITH WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. AS FOR ANY
DISTURBANCES...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COULD INFLUENCE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. HOWEVER...ANY SPECIFIC PLACEMENT IS TOUGH
TO CALL AND LEFT CURRENT POP GRIDS ALONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MOJAVE DESERT
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION ROLLING INTO VALLEYS. DO
NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALIES THAT WOULD HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION ANY PARTICULAR DAY. SO, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OR STORMS AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BATTLING OVER WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK OR DRY OUT SOONER. THE ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEFS AND NAEFS SUGGEST SLIGHT DRYING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY, WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THE LATEST GFS KEEPS THE HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
AND THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN FOR OUR AREA. THIS IS IN CONTRAST WITH
IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, RAISING UNCERTAINTY. MODELS OFTEN WANT TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE TOO SOON WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. SO, WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP POPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY, WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND FOR TUESDAY.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD UNTIL WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
INFLUX OVER THE WEEKEND AND JUST WHEN/IF THE DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 280918
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START EXPANDING WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HELPING TO DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST
AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ALSO
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SO FAR NONE OF THE IPW SENSORS ARE SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE...BUT IS SUSPECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL START TO
SEE THE SOUTHERN MOST SENSORS REFLECT THIS MOISTURE INCREASE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTION OF MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH IS PROBABLY A BIT
EARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD HELP DEVELOP STORMS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH
COVERING SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE 1.5 INCH LINE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SAN BERN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AND THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CLARK. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTY THURSDAY WITH WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. AS FOR ANY
DISTURBANCES...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COULD INFLUENCE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. HOWEVER...ANY SPECIFIC PLACEMENT IS TOUGH
TO CALL AND LEFT CURRENT POP GRIDS ALONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MOJAVE DESERT
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION ROLLING INTO VALLEYS. DO
NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALIES THAT WOULD HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION ANY PARTICULAR DAY. SO, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OR STORMS AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BATTLING OVER WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK OR DRY OUT SOONER. THE ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEFS AND NAEFS SUGGEST SLIGHT DRYING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY, WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THE LATEST GFS KEEPS THE HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
AND THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN FOR OUR AREA. THIS IS IN CONTRAST WITH
IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, RAISING UNCERTAINTY. MODELS OFTEN WANT TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE TOO SOON WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. SO, WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP POPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY, WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND FOR TUESDAY.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD UNTIL WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
INFLUX OVER THE WEEKEND AND JUST WHEN/IF THE DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 280908
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
EAST WINDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WILDFIRES
ON THE WEST SLOPES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HAZE NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VERY
SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST AS LIGHT EAST FLOW
PREVAILS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 650 MB. IF NEW SMOKE PLUMES
FROM THE WILLOW AND LOWELL FIRES PUSH ABOVE 650 MB (ABOUT
12,000-13,000 FEET MSL) WHERE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST, HAZY
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO THE SIERRA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING BUT VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PREDOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV HAVE A CHANCE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO MONO COUNTY AND BRING A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE LEFT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY WHICH IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE, THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WOULD
KEEP THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH, LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY AT BEST. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF TURNING THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWEST SUN-MON WHICH WOULD
HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON CONVECTION. THE 00Z GFS IS PERSISTENT
WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE POSITION OF UPPER LOW. THE GFS ALSO
CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THAT COULD
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE DOWNWARD A BIT AS MORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH 80S SIERRA AND 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER
SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE HAZE AND SMOKE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST AND AWAY FROM
EASTERN SIERRA TERMINALS. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 280908
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
EAST WINDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WILDFIRES
ON THE WEST SLOPES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HAZE NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VERY
SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST AS LIGHT EAST FLOW
PREVAILS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 650 MB. IF NEW SMOKE PLUMES
FROM THE WILLOW AND LOWELL FIRES PUSH ABOVE 650 MB (ABOUT
12,000-13,000 FEET MSL) WHERE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST, HAZY
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO THE SIERRA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING BUT VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PREDOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV HAVE A CHANCE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO MONO COUNTY AND BRING A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE LEFT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY WHICH IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE, THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WOULD
KEEP THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH, LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY AT BEST. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF TURNING THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWEST SUN-MON WHICH WOULD
HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON CONVECTION. THE 00Z GFS IS PERSISTENT
WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE POSITION OF UPPER LOW. THE GFS ALSO
CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THAT COULD
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE DOWNWARD A BIT AS MORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH 80S SIERRA AND 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER
SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE HAZE AND SMOKE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST AND AWAY FROM
EASTERN SIERRA TERMINALS. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 280908
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
EAST WINDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WILDFIRES
ON THE WEST SLOPES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HAZE NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VERY
SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST AS LIGHT EAST FLOW
PREVAILS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 650 MB. IF NEW SMOKE PLUMES
FROM THE WILLOW AND LOWELL FIRES PUSH ABOVE 650 MB (ABOUT
12,000-13,000 FEET MSL) WHERE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST, HAZY
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO THE SIERRA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING BUT VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PREDOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV HAVE A CHANCE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO MONO COUNTY AND BRING A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE LEFT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY WHICH IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE, THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WOULD
KEEP THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH, LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY AT BEST. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF TURNING THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWEST SUN-MON WHICH WOULD
HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON CONVECTION. THE 00Z GFS IS PERSISTENT
WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE POSITION OF UPPER LOW. THE GFS ALSO
CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THAT COULD
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE DOWNWARD A BIT AS MORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH 80S SIERRA AND 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER
SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE HAZE AND SMOKE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST AND AWAY FROM
EASTERN SIERRA TERMINALS. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KLKN 280900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY TERRIFIC WEATHER ON TUESDAY...WITH
FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A RAPID
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR, CALM AND COOL THIS MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A
DRY AIRMASS, WITH NO CLOUDS IN, OR ANYWHERE NEAR, NEVADA. SOME
VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 30S AT SUNRISE, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

TODAY...PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER, WITH FULL SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS,
AND MILD TEMPERATURES, STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY
NORMALS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND QUITE COOL AGAIN, MORE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS INTO NEVADA,
WITH 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TUESDAY`S READINGS.  BAT



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERN
RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND AND INTRODUCTION OF MORE CLOUDS AND
CREEPING POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS THE
TEMPS WARM. RIDGE TENDS TO WEAKEN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
TEMPS DROP A LITTLE. MODELS AGREED WELL ENOUGH IN THE BEGINNING BUT
DIFFERENCES CREEP IN LATER...HENCE LESS CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH A
CHANGE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.  BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 280900 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY TERRIFIC WEATHER ON TUESDAY...WITH
FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A RAPID
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z TAFS OUT. KWMC HAS HAD INTERMITTENT
REPORTING PROBLEMS VIA AUTOMATED ELECTRONIC MEANS...AND
INTERMITTENT BUSY SIGNALS WHEN DIALING IN. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN
BEING ABLE TO OBTAIN OBS. THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR, CALM AND COOL THIS MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A
DRY AIRMASS, WITH NO CLOUDS IN, OR ANYWHERE NEAR, NEVADA. SOME
VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 30S AT SUNRISE, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

TODAY...PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER, WITH FULL SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS,
AND MILD TEMPERATURES, STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY
NORMALS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND QUITE COOL AGAIN, MORE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS INTO NEVADA,
WITH 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TUESDAY`S READINGS.  BAT



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERN
RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND AND INTRODUCTION OF MORE CLOUDS AND
CREEPING POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS THE
TEMPS WARM. RIDGE TENDS TO WEAKEN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
TEMPS DROP A LITTLE. MODELS AGREED WELL ENOUGH IN THE BEGINNING BUT
DIFFERENCES CREEP IN LATER...HENCE LESS CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH A
CHANGE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.  BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 280900 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY TERRIFIC WEATHER ON TUESDAY...WITH
FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A RAPID
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z TAFS OUT. KWMC HAS HAD INTERMITTENT
REPORTING PROBLEMS VIA AUTOMATED ELECTRONIC MEANS...AND
INTERMITTENT BUSY SIGNALS WHEN DIALING IN. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN
BEING ABLE TO OBTAIN OBS. THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR, CALM AND COOL THIS MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A
DRY AIRMASS, WITH NO CLOUDS IN, OR ANYWHERE NEAR, NEVADA. SOME
VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 30S AT SUNRISE, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

TODAY...PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER, WITH FULL SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS,
AND MILD TEMPERATURES, STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY
NORMALS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND QUITE COOL AGAIN, MORE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS INTO NEVADA,
WITH 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TUESDAY`S READINGS.  BAT



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERN
RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND AND INTRODUCTION OF MORE CLOUDS AND
CREEPING POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS THE
TEMPS WARM. RIDGE TENDS TO WEAKEN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
TEMPS DROP A LITTLE. MODELS AGREED WELL ENOUGH IN THE BEGINNING BUT
DIFFERENCES CREEP IN LATER...HENCE LESS CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH A
CHANGE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.  BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 280900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY TERRIFIC WEATHER ON TUESDAY...WITH
FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A RAPID
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR, CALM AND COOL THIS MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A
DRY AIRMASS, WITH NO CLOUDS IN, OR ANYWHERE NEAR, NEVADA. SOME
VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 30S AT SUNRISE, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

TODAY...PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER, WITH FULL SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS,
AND MILD TEMPERATURES, STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY
NORMALS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND QUITE COOL AGAIN, MORE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS INTO NEVADA,
WITH 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TUESDAY`S READINGS.  BAT



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERN
RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND AND INTRODUCTION OF MORE CLOUDS AND
CREEPING POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS THE
TEMPS WARM. RIDGE TENDS TO WEAKEN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
TEMPS DROP A LITTLE. MODELS AGREED WELL ENOUGH IN THE BEGINNING BUT
DIFFERENCES CREEP IN LATER...HENCE LESS CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH A
CHANGE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.  BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 280900 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY TERRIFIC WEATHER ON TUESDAY...WITH
FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A RAPID
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z TAFS OUT. KWMC HAS HAD INTERMITTENT
REPORTING PROBLEMS VIA AUTOMATED ELECTRONIC MEANS...AND
INTERMITTENT BUSY SIGNALS WHEN DIALING IN. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN
BEING ABLE TO OBTAIN OBS. THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR, CALM AND COOL THIS MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A
DRY AIRMASS, WITH NO CLOUDS IN, OR ANYWHERE NEAR, NEVADA. SOME
VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 30S AT SUNRISE, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

TODAY...PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER, WITH FULL SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS,
AND MILD TEMPERATURES, STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY
NORMALS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND QUITE COOL AGAIN, MORE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS INTO NEVADA,
WITH 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TUESDAY`S READINGS.  BAT



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERN
RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND AND INTRODUCTION OF MORE CLOUDS AND
CREEPING POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS THE
TEMPS WARM. RIDGE TENDS TO WEAKEN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
TEMPS DROP A LITTLE. MODELS AGREED WELL ENOUGH IN THE BEGINNING BUT
DIFFERENCES CREEP IN LATER...HENCE LESS CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH A
CHANGE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.  BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98/99



000
FXUS65 KVEF 280428 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ON TAP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AERA WIDE. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 280428 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ON TAP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AERA WIDE. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KLKN 272217
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE
JULY STANDARDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE JULY STANDARDS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS LIKE WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON WILL SEE LOWS DIP
BELOW FREEZING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW
TEMPS. ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTNING THESE CHILLY TEMPS. DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WARMING TREND
THURSDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOIST AIR UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP...AND
WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY TO NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF LANDER COUNTY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS NORTHERLY PROGRESSION.
HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SATURDAY. EXPECT
MOST ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE HIGHLAND REGION OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW STORM CELLS
REACHING UP INTO NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES AND UP INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY
SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE SATURDAY. NOT AS MUCH MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO WENT WITH
A BROADBRUSH OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IS
AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO RECEDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW IS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY...AND INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 272217
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE
JULY STANDARDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE JULY STANDARDS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS LIKE WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON WILL SEE LOWS DIP
BELOW FREEZING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW
TEMPS. ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTNING THESE CHILLY TEMPS. DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WARMING TREND
THURSDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOIST AIR UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP...AND
WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY TO NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF LANDER COUNTY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS NORTHERLY PROGRESSION.
HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SATURDAY. EXPECT
MOST ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE HIGHLAND REGION OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW STORM CELLS
REACHING UP INTO NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES AND UP INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY
SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE SATURDAY. NOT AS MUCH MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO WENT WITH
A BROADBRUSH OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IS
AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO RECEDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW IS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY...AND INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 272217
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE
JULY STANDARDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE JULY STANDARDS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS LIKE WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON WILL SEE LOWS DIP
BELOW FREEZING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW
TEMPS. ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTNING THESE CHILLY TEMPS. DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WARMING TREND
THURSDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOIST AIR UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP...AND
WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY TO NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF LANDER COUNTY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS NORTHERLY PROGRESSION.
HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SATURDAY. EXPECT
MOST ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE HIGHLAND REGION OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW STORM CELLS
REACHING UP INTO NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES AND UP INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY
SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE SATURDAY. NOT AS MUCH MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO WENT WITH
A BROADBRUSH OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IS
AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO RECEDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW IS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY...AND INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 272217
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE
JULY STANDARDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED IN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BY LATE JULY STANDARDS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS LIKE WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON WILL SEE LOWS DIP
BELOW FREEZING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW
TEMPS. ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTNING THESE CHILLY TEMPS. DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WARMING TREND
THURSDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOIST AIR UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP...AND
WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY TO NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF LANDER COUNTY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS NORTHERLY PROGRESSION.
HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SATURDAY. EXPECT
MOST ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE HIGHLAND REGION OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW STORM CELLS
REACHING UP INTO NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES AND UP INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY
SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE SATURDAY. NOT AS MUCH MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO WENT WITH
A BROADBRUSH OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IS
AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO RECEDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW IS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY...AND INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KVEF 272130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 272130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 272130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 272130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 272130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 272130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 272112
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILDFIRES ON THE WEST SLOPES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HAZE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN NV ARE FAIRLY
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN LOW PW VALUES (1-2.5 PERCENTILE)
WE SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PROMPT A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THICKER SMOKE FROM THE WEST SLOPE WILDFIRES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH E/NE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. I WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
HAZE RIGHT ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE WESTERLIES SNEAKING IN,
EXTENDING TO ABOUT 5-10 MILES EAST OF THE CREST. CS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR THE 100
DEGREE MARK AND STAY IN THE UPPER 90`S UNTIL THE COOLING AFFECTS
OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 4-6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MORE IMPACTFUL PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE THE RETURN
OF ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST,
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. DETAILS OF THE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN ARE STILL COMING
INTO FOCUS, BUT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
SIERRA OR WESTERN NEVADA KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND MAKE A
PLAN FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
GENERALLY NNE BECOMING EAST ON TUESDAY. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 272112
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILDFIRES ON THE WEST SLOPES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HAZE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN NV ARE FAIRLY
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN LOW PW VALUES (1-2.5 PERCENTILE)
WE SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PROMPT A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THICKER SMOKE FROM THE WEST SLOPE WILDFIRES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH E/NE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. I WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
HAZE RIGHT ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE WESTERLIES SNEAKING IN,
EXTENDING TO ABOUT 5-10 MILES EAST OF THE CREST. CS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR THE 100
DEGREE MARK AND STAY IN THE UPPER 90`S UNTIL THE COOLING AFFECTS
OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 4-6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MORE IMPACTFUL PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE THE RETURN
OF ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST,
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. DETAILS OF THE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN ARE STILL COMING
INTO FOCUS, BUT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
SIERRA OR WESTERN NEVADA KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND MAKE A
PLAN FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
GENERALLY NNE BECOMING EAST ON TUESDAY. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KVEF 271637 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
936 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND BRING A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...STRONG TROUGH FOR LATE JULY WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTH GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM AROUND CHARLESTON BLVD NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE
VALLEY. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HINT OF MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNING TO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WEDNESDAY. WILL UPDATE THE
WIND FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...215 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS NOT OFTEN THAT WE CAN MENTION COLD FRONT AND JULY IN THE SAME
SENTENCE...BUT A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA BRINGING SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE. THE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND
REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET UP OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THAT HAPPENS IT
WILL BEGIN TO PULL UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE BEST MOISTURE PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES...BUT
EVEN BETTER ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A DISTURBANCE PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. CONVECTION COULD
ALSO GO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
POPS OVER MAINLY SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WEST AND NORTH, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE, SAN BERNARDINO, INYO, AND CLARK
COUNTIES. THE TERRAIN WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS WE GET INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND THE REST OF THE DAY
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT KVGT WILL DIMINISH BY
19Z AS WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH WINDS MAINLY
AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 271637 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
936 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND BRING A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...STRONG TROUGH FOR LATE JULY WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTH GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM AROUND CHARLESTON BLVD NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE
VALLEY. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HINT OF MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNING TO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WEDNESDAY. WILL UPDATE THE
WIND FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...215 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS NOT OFTEN THAT WE CAN MENTION COLD FRONT AND JULY IN THE SAME
SENTENCE...BUT A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA BRINGING SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE. THE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND
REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET UP OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THAT HAPPENS IT
WILL BEGIN TO PULL UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE BEST MOISTURE PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES...BUT
EVEN BETTER ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A DISTURBANCE PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. CONVECTION COULD
ALSO GO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
POPS OVER MAINLY SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WEST AND NORTH, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE, SAN BERNARDINO, INYO, AND CLARK
COUNTIES. THE TERRAIN WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS WE GET INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND THE REST OF THE DAY
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT KVGT WILL DIMINISH BY
19Z AS WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH WINDS MAINLY
AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 271240 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE WAS BEING
PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. SOME SMOKE AND HAZE WAS STILL
SHOWING AROUND MAMMOTH LAKES, BUT THAT AREA TOO WAS SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT. LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL PUSH BROUGHT IN A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WIND AND THIS HELPED MIX AND SCOUR THE LOW LEVELS. MOST
RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION EXPERIMENTAL MODEL RUNS ON THE LOWELL AND
WILLOW WILDFIRES INDICATE THAT THE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE IN BRINGING SMOKE MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE CREST
TODAY. SO WE REDUCED THE AREA OF SMOKE AND HAZE, LIMITING IT
MAINLY TO THE SIERRA. AN EAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 271240 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE WAS BEING
PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. SOME SMOKE AND HAZE WAS STILL
SHOWING AROUND MAMMOTH LAKES, BUT THAT AREA TOO WAS SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT. LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL PUSH BROUGHT IN A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WIND AND THIS HELPED MIX AND SCOUR THE LOW LEVELS. MOST
RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION EXPERIMENTAL MODEL RUNS ON THE LOWELL AND
WILLOW WILDFIRES INDICATE THAT THE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE IN BRINGING SMOKE MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE CREST
TODAY. SO WE REDUCED THE AREA OF SMOKE AND HAZE, LIMITING IT
MAINLY TO THE SIERRA. AN EAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 271240 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE WAS BEING
PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. SOME SMOKE AND HAZE WAS STILL
SHOWING AROUND MAMMOTH LAKES, BUT THAT AREA TOO WAS SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT. LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL PUSH BROUGHT IN A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WIND AND THIS HELPED MIX AND SCOUR THE LOW LEVELS. MOST
RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION EXPERIMENTAL MODEL RUNS ON THE LOWELL AND
WILLOW WILDFIRES INDICATE THAT THE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE IN BRINGING SMOKE MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE CREST
TODAY. SO WE REDUCED THE AREA OF SMOKE AND HAZE, LIMITING IT
MAINLY TO THE SIERRA. AN EAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 271240 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE WAS BEING
PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. SOME SMOKE AND HAZE WAS STILL
SHOWING AROUND MAMMOTH LAKES, BUT THAT AREA TOO WAS SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT. LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL PUSH BROUGHT IN A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WIND AND THIS HELPED MIX AND SCOUR THE LOW LEVELS. MOST
RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION EXPERIMENTAL MODEL RUNS ON THE LOWELL AND
WILLOW WILDFIRES INDICATE THAT THE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE IN BRINGING SMOKE MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE CREST
TODAY. SO WE REDUCED THE AREA OF SMOKE AND HAZE, LIMITING IT
MAINLY TO THE SIERRA. AN EAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 271240 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE WAS BEING
PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. SOME SMOKE AND HAZE WAS STILL
SHOWING AROUND MAMMOTH LAKES, BUT THAT AREA TOO WAS SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT. LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL PUSH BROUGHT IN A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WIND AND THIS HELPED MIX AND SCOUR THE LOW LEVELS. MOST
RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION EXPERIMENTAL MODEL RUNS ON THE LOWELL AND
WILLOW WILDFIRES INDICATE THAT THE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE IN BRINGING SMOKE MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE CREST
TODAY. SO WE REDUCED THE AREA OF SMOKE AND HAZE, LIMITING IT
MAINLY TO THE SIERRA. AN EAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 270916
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND BRING A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS NOT OFTEN THAT WE CAN MENTION COLD FRONT AND JULY IN THE SAME
SENTENCE...BUT A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA BRINGING SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE. THE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND
REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET UP OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THAT HAPPENS IT
WILL BEGIN TO PULL UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE BEST MOISTURE PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES...BUT
EVEN BETTER ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A DISTURBANCE PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. CONVECTION COULD
ALSO GO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
POPS OVER MAINLY SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WEST AND NORTH, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE, SAN BERNARDINO, INYO, AND CLARK
COUNTIES. THE TERRAIN WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS WE GET INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND TURN MORE EASTERLY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE EASTERLY WINDS COULD REMAIN AROUND
7 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH WINDS MAINLY
AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 270916
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND BRING A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS NOT OFTEN THAT WE CAN MENTION COLD FRONT AND JULY IN THE SAME
SENTENCE...BUT A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA BRINGING SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE. THE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND
REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET UP OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THAT HAPPENS IT
WILL BEGIN TO PULL UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE BEST MOISTURE PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES...BUT
EVEN BETTER ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A DISTURBANCE PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. CONVECTION COULD
ALSO GO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
POPS OVER MAINLY SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WEST AND NORTH, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE, SAN BERNARDINO, INYO, AND CLARK
COUNTIES. THE TERRAIN WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS WE GET INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND TURN MORE EASTERLY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE EASTERLY WINDS COULD REMAIN AROUND
7 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH WINDS MAINLY
AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KREV 270907
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270907
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270907
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270907
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270907
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD AND PLEASANT TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR GERLACH. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE LOWELL AND WILLOW
FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHS WILL JUMP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME WEAKENED RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALONG
MIDSLOPE AREAS AND ENHANCED VALLEY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL HELP BRING BACK SOME AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR BREEZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRIER BUT
TONIGHT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
GENERAL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT AND SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUITE WET BY THE WEEKEND AS PWAT
SURGES TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. WE WILL LIKELY START WITH A HYBRID OF
WET AND DRY STORMS THU-FRI NIGHT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT TIMES WHICH WOULD HAVE A LIMITING
EFFECT ON COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS IS LOW
ASIDE FROM THESE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THU-FRI BEFORE MODERATING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS CHANGING TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SMOKE WEST OF THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KLKN 270900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT...WITH MANY VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECTACULAR WEATHER WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE, IMPRESSIVE FOR MID-SUMMER, ENTERING NW NEVADA
THIS MORNING. STRONG FORCING AND LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS MORNING, SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 1 AM. WHILE FORCING IS
STRONG AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND ALONG THE ASSOCIATED ADVANCING
COLD FRONT, IT IS ACTING ON A DRY AIRMASS AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED.
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS OF MIDNIGHT, AND
WILL EXIT THE CWA BY THE MID- MORNING HOURS.

AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS IMPRESSIVELY COOL FOR JULY, WITH
700 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO 4-6C ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
TRANSLATES TO MOST VALLEYS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT, THE FORECASTED
HIGH OF 78 AT ELKO WOULD TIE THE SECOND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDED FOR JULY 27TH...78 DEGREES ON JULY 27, 1909. MORE FREE
AC...ENJOY! POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WHERE THEY WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 MPH ON/NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, AS SUBSIDENCE CLEARS
OUT THE SKY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND CHILLY. A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 5 AM. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TYPICALLY COLD ELEVATED VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY, SUCH AS WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE TIME TO GO TO TRUE DRAINAGE BY SUNRISE,
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.
A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS AT WINNEMUCCA, WHERE NE WINDS WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS ELEVATED. NONETHELESS, UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON IN MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY...TERRIFIC. FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD AND WELL BELOW NORMAL, CLIMBING ONLY 2-4 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY`S READINGS.  TURNER



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST WITH MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH 595 DECAMETER HIGH GIVING WAY TO VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

FRIDAY...PW`S BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR .75" IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
TROUGH OFF WEST COAST PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WHICH WILL BRING IN MONSOON MOISTURE. SATURDAY PW`S WILL BE NEAR AN
INCH IN CENTRAL NEVADA AND CLOSE TO .75" ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF
THE STORMS WILL BE IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE. SUNDAY PW`S INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH
IN MOST OF THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. RLC

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KWMC EARLY THIS AM BEFORE 15Z AND
NEAR KEKO BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS OF 10-25 KTS. RLC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15-25 MPH FOR MOST FWZ. GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH MOST LIKELY ON/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS. CONTINUED MILD WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING FWZ 457 STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/90/90/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 270900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT...WITH MANY VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECTACULAR WEATHER WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE, IMPRESSIVE FOR MID-SUMMER, ENTERING NW NEVADA
THIS MORNING. STRONG FORCING AND LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS MORNING, SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 1 AM. WHILE FORCING IS
STRONG AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND ALONG THE ASSOCIATED ADVANCING
COLD FRONT, IT IS ACTING ON A DRY AIRMASS AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED.
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS OF MIDNIGHT, AND
WILL EXIT THE CWA BY THE MID- MORNING HOURS.

AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS IMPRESSIVELY COOL FOR JULY, WITH
700 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO 4-6C ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
TRANSLATES TO MOST VALLEYS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT, THE FORECASTED
HIGH OF 78 AT ELKO WOULD TIE THE SECOND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDED FOR JULY 27TH...78 DEGREES ON JULY 27, 1909. MORE FREE
AC...ENJOY! POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WHERE THEY WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 MPH ON/NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, AS SUBSIDENCE CLEARS
OUT THE SKY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND CHILLY. A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 5 AM. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TYPICALLY COLD ELEVATED VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY, SUCH AS WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE TIME TO GO TO TRUE DRAINAGE BY SUNRISE,
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.
A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS AT WINNEMUCCA, WHERE NE WINDS WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS ELEVATED. NONETHELESS, UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON IN MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY...TERRIFIC. FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD AND WELL BELOW NORMAL, CLIMBING ONLY 2-4 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY`S READINGS.  TURNER



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST WITH MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH 595 DECAMETER HIGH GIVING WAY TO VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

FRIDAY...PW`S BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR .75" IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
TROUGH OFF WEST COAST PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WHICH WILL BRING IN MONSOON MOISTURE. SATURDAY PW`S WILL BE NEAR AN
INCH IN CENTRAL NEVADA AND CLOSE TO .75" ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF
THE STORMS WILL BE IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE. SUNDAY PW`S INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH
IN MOST OF THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. RLC

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KWMC EARLY THIS AM BEFORE 15Z AND
NEAR KEKO BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS OF 10-25 KTS. RLC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15-25 MPH FOR MOST FWZ. GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH MOST LIKELY ON/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS. CONTINUED MILD WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING FWZ 457 STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/90/90/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 270900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT...WITH MANY VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECTACULAR WEATHER WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE, IMPRESSIVE FOR MID-SUMMER, ENTERING NW NEVADA
THIS MORNING. STRONG FORCING AND LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS MORNING, SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 1 AM. WHILE FORCING IS
STRONG AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND ALONG THE ASSOCIATED ADVANCING
COLD FRONT, IT IS ACTING ON A DRY AIRMASS AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED.
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS OF MIDNIGHT, AND
WILL EXIT THE CWA BY THE MID- MORNING HOURS.

AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS IMPRESSIVELY COOL FOR JULY, WITH
700 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO 4-6C ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
TRANSLATES TO MOST VALLEYS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT, THE FORECASTED
HIGH OF 78 AT ELKO WOULD TIE THE SECOND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDED FOR JULY 27TH...78 DEGREES ON JULY 27, 1909. MORE FREE
AC...ENJOY! POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WHERE THEY WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 MPH ON/NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, AS SUBSIDENCE CLEARS
OUT THE SKY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND CHILLY. A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 5 AM. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TYPICALLY COLD ELEVATED VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY, SUCH AS WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE TIME TO GO TO TRUE DRAINAGE BY SUNRISE,
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.
A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS AT WINNEMUCCA, WHERE NE WINDS WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS ELEVATED. NONETHELESS, UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON IN MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY...TERRIFIC. FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD AND WELL BELOW NORMAL, CLIMBING ONLY 2-4 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY`S READINGS.  TURNER



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST WITH MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH 595 DECAMETER HIGH GIVING WAY TO VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

FRIDAY...PW`S BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR .75" IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
TROUGH OFF WEST COAST PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WHICH WILL BRING IN MONSOON MOISTURE. SATURDAY PW`S WILL BE NEAR AN
INCH IN CENTRAL NEVADA AND CLOSE TO .75" ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF
THE STORMS WILL BE IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE. SUNDAY PW`S INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH
IN MOST OF THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. RLC

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KWMC EARLY THIS AM BEFORE 15Z AND
NEAR KEKO BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS OF 10-25 KTS. RLC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15-25 MPH FOR MOST FWZ. GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH MOST LIKELY ON/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS. CONTINUED MILD WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING FWZ 457 STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/90/90/99



000
FXUS65 KLKN 270900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT...WITH MANY VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECTACULAR WEATHER WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE, IMPRESSIVE FOR MID-SUMMER, ENTERING NW NEVADA
THIS MORNING. STRONG FORCING AND LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS MORNING, SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 1 AM. WHILE FORCING IS
STRONG AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND ALONG THE ASSOCIATED ADVANCING
COLD FRONT, IT IS ACTING ON A DRY AIRMASS AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED.
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS OF MIDNIGHT, AND
WILL EXIT THE CWA BY THE MID- MORNING HOURS.

AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS IMPRESSIVELY COOL FOR JULY, WITH
700 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO 4-6C ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
TRANSLATES TO MOST VALLEYS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT, THE FORECASTED
HIGH OF 78 AT ELKO WOULD TIE THE SECOND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDED FOR JULY 27TH...78 DEGREES ON JULY 27, 1909. MORE FREE
AC...ENJOY! POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WHERE THEY WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 MPH ON/NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, AS SUBSIDENCE CLEARS
OUT THE SKY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND CHILLY. A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 5 AM. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TYPICALLY COLD ELEVATED VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY, SUCH AS WILDHORSE AND CHARLESTON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE TIME TO GO TO TRUE DRAINAGE BY SUNRISE,
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.
A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS AT WINNEMUCCA, WHERE NE WINDS WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS ELEVATED. NONETHELESS, UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON IN MANY VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY...TERRIFIC. FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD AND WELL BELOW NORMAL, CLIMBING ONLY 2-4 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY`S READINGS.  TURNER



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST WITH MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH 595 DECAMETER HIGH GIVING WAY TO VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

FRIDAY...PW`S BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR .75" IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
TROUGH OFF WEST COAST PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WHICH WILL BRING IN MONSOON MOISTURE. SATURDAY PW`S WILL BE NEAR AN
INCH IN CENTRAL NEVADA AND CLOSE TO .75" ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF
THE STORMS WILL BE IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE. SUNDAY PW`S INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH
IN MOST OF THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. RLC

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KWMC EARLY THIS AM BEFORE 15Z AND
NEAR KEKO BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS OF 10-25 KTS. RLC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15-25 MPH FOR MOST FWZ. GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH MOST LIKELY ON/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS. CONTINUED MILD WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING FWZ 457 STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/90/90/99




000
FXUS65 KREV 270522 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1022 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE STRONG UPPER WAVE ACROSS LASSEN AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE WAVE THESE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THEY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH NORTHWARD.

WITH SKIES CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND WINDS DYING OFF FASTER THAN
EXPECTED, TEMPS ARE ALREADY COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS A RESULT, MAINLY IN
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME AREAS WERE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS
MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE INTO THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE
WINDS MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWELL AND WILLOW FIRES ALONG WITH WESTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POOR AIR QUALITY
TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE BACK
TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST. ULTIMATELY, SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD CLEAR
BY MONDAY EVENING RESIDING WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA.

AFTER A TROUGH STRAFES THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING MAINLY FROM VERY NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS PRODUCING A STRONG WARMING TREND
FROM MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY; MID/UPPER 80S
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY ZEPHYRS RETURNING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. BOYD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY
THURSDAY AND STAY IN THE HIGH 90`S TO LOW 100`S INTO THE WEEKEND.

GFS/EC CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EC CONTINUES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS CLIMBING
OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY IN WESTERN NEVADA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
HEIGHT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH REFORECAST
ANALOGS AND NAEFS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THIS IS A TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA; EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TOLBY

AVIATION...

WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KTS UNTIL AS LATE AS 09Z WITH SOME AREAS
CONTINUING WITH WESTERLY PREVAILING WINDS (5-10 KTS) THROUGH 15Z.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM LOCAL FIRES MAY IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE SMOKE FROM
WORKING INTO THE REGION. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270522 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1022 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE STRONG UPPER WAVE ACROSS LASSEN AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE WAVE THESE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THEY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH NORTHWARD.

WITH SKIES CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND WINDS DYING OFF FASTER THAN
EXPECTED, TEMPS ARE ALREADY COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS A RESULT, MAINLY IN
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME AREAS WERE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS
MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE INTO THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE
WINDS MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWELL AND WILLOW FIRES ALONG WITH WESTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POOR AIR QUALITY
TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE BACK
TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST. ULTIMATELY, SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD CLEAR
BY MONDAY EVENING RESIDING WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA.

AFTER A TROUGH STRAFES THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING MAINLY FROM VERY NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS PRODUCING A STRONG WARMING TREND
FROM MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY; MID/UPPER 80S
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY ZEPHYRS RETURNING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. BOYD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY
THURSDAY AND STAY IN THE HIGH 90`S TO LOW 100`S INTO THE WEEKEND.

GFS/EC CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EC CONTINUES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS CLIMBING
OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY IN WESTERN NEVADA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
HEIGHT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH REFORECAST
ANALOGS AND NAEFS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THIS IS A TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA; EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TOLBY

AVIATION...

WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KTS UNTIL AS LATE AS 09Z WITH SOME AREAS
CONTINUING WITH WESTERLY PREVAILING WINDS (5-10 KTS) THROUGH 15Z.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM LOCAL FIRES MAY IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE SMOKE FROM
WORKING INTO THE REGION. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270522 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1022 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE STRONG UPPER WAVE ACROSS LASSEN AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE WAVE THESE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THEY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH NORTHWARD.

WITH SKIES CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND WINDS DYING OFF FASTER THAN
EXPECTED, TEMPS ARE ALREADY COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS A RESULT, MAINLY IN
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME AREAS WERE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS
MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE INTO THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE
WINDS MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWELL AND WILLOW FIRES ALONG WITH WESTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POOR AIR QUALITY
TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE BACK
TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST. ULTIMATELY, SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD CLEAR
BY MONDAY EVENING RESIDING WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA.

AFTER A TROUGH STRAFES THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING MAINLY FROM VERY NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS PRODUCING A STRONG WARMING TREND
FROM MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY; MID/UPPER 80S
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY ZEPHYRS RETURNING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. BOYD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY
THURSDAY AND STAY IN THE HIGH 90`S TO LOW 100`S INTO THE WEEKEND.

GFS/EC CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EC CONTINUES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS CLIMBING
OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY IN WESTERN NEVADA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
HEIGHT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH REFORECAST
ANALOGS AND NAEFS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THIS IS A TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA; EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TOLBY

AVIATION...

WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KTS UNTIL AS LATE AS 09Z WITH SOME AREAS
CONTINUING WITH WESTERLY PREVAILING WINDS (5-10 KTS) THROUGH 15Z.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM LOCAL FIRES MAY IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE SMOKE FROM
WORKING INTO THE REGION. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270522 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1022 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE STRONG UPPER WAVE ACROSS LASSEN AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE WAVE THESE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THEY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH NORTHWARD.

WITH SKIES CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND WINDS DYING OFF FASTER THAN
EXPECTED, TEMPS ARE ALREADY COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS A RESULT, MAINLY IN
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME AREAS WERE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS
MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE INTO THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE
WINDS MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWELL AND WILLOW FIRES ALONG WITH WESTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POOR AIR QUALITY
TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE BACK
TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST. ULTIMATELY, SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD CLEAR
BY MONDAY EVENING RESIDING WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA.

AFTER A TROUGH STRAFES THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING MAINLY FROM VERY NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS PRODUCING A STRONG WARMING TREND
FROM MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY; MID/UPPER 80S
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY ZEPHYRS RETURNING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. BOYD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY
THURSDAY AND STAY IN THE HIGH 90`S TO LOW 100`S INTO THE WEEKEND.

GFS/EC CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EC CONTINUES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS CLIMBING
OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY IN WESTERN NEVADA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
HEIGHT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH REFORECAST
ANALOGS AND NAEFS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THIS IS A TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA; EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TOLBY

AVIATION...

WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KTS UNTIL AS LATE AS 09Z WITH SOME AREAS
CONTINUING WITH WESTERLY PREVAILING WINDS (5-10 KTS) THROUGH 15Z.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM LOCAL FIRES MAY IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE SMOKE FROM
WORKING INTO THE REGION. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KVEF 270509 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. LESS WIND AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANCES SPREAD
AREA WIDE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP. DISTURBANCE ROLLING
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA HAS KICKED UP A LITTLE WIND OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY COVERED
WELL. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
246 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THE
PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE, ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND ALLOW GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS
OVERALL WILL BE LIGHTER.

MODELS FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY BACK WEST BRINGING
MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MOISTURE THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. FOCUSING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE OVERALL FLOW ARE DIFFICULT, IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE, TO ANTICIPATE THIS FAR OUT SO THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST BASICALLY SHADOWS THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MODEL
FORECASTED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN FORECAST ON SOME DAYS DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS COULD GO ALL NIGHT DUE TO A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL TRENDS WITH WINDS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THAT LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KVEF 270509 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. LESS WIND AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANCES SPREAD
AREA WIDE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP. DISTURBANCE ROLLING
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA HAS KICKED UP A LITTLE WIND OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY COVERED
WELL. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
246 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THE
PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE, ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND ALLOW GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS
OVERALL WILL BE LIGHTER.

MODELS FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY BACK WEST BRINGING
MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MOISTURE THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. FOCUSING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE OVERALL FLOW ARE DIFFICULT, IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE, TO ANTICIPATE THIS FAR OUT SO THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST BASICALLY SHADOWS THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MODEL
FORECASTED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN FORECAST ON SOME DAYS DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS COULD GO ALL NIGHT DUE TO A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL TRENDS WITH WINDS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THAT LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 270509 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. LESS WIND AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANCES SPREAD
AREA WIDE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP. DISTURBANCE ROLLING
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA HAS KICKED UP A LITTLE WIND OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY COVERED
WELL. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
246 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THE
PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE, ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND ALLOW GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS
OVERALL WILL BE LIGHTER.

MODELS FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY BACK WEST BRINGING
MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MOISTURE THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. FOCUSING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE OVERALL FLOW ARE DIFFICULT, IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE, TO ANTICIPATE THIS FAR OUT SO THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST BASICALLY SHADOWS THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MODEL
FORECASTED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN FORECAST ON SOME DAYS DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS COULD GO ALL NIGHT DUE TO A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL TRENDS WITH WINDS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THAT LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KLKN 262155
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE TAIL END OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY, ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN NV TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAINLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO MID 80S CENTRAL NV. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE A LITTLE NIPPY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. TEMPS BEGIN
TO WARM ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BOTH
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SUNNY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY...THEN
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER BY
SUNDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
LIKELY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. A FAST
MOVING FRONT WILL BRUSH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. SKIES SCT/SKC WEST TO EAST MONDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FALL TONIGHT TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF
KWMC AND KEKO.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHERN PART OF FIRE ZONES
467 AND 468. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REST OF FAR NORTHERN NV LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER MONDAY. WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 262155
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE TAIL END OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY, ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN NV TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAINLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO MID 80S CENTRAL NV. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE A LITTLE NIPPY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. TEMPS BEGIN
TO WARM ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BOTH
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SUNNY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY...THEN
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER BY
SUNDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
LIKELY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. A FAST
MOVING FRONT WILL BRUSH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. SKIES SCT/SKC WEST TO EAST MONDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FALL TONIGHT TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF
KWMC AND KEKO.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHERN PART OF FIRE ZONES
467 AND 468. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REST OF FAR NORTHERN NV LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER MONDAY. WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91



000
FXUS65 KVEF 262146
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
246 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. LESS WIND AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANCES SPREAD
AREA WIDE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THE
PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE, ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND ALLOW GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS
OVERALL WILL BE LIGHTER.

MODELS FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY BACK WEST BRINGING
MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MOISTURE THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. FOCUSING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE OVERALL FLOW ARE DIFFICULT, IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE, TO ANTICIPATE THIS FAR OUT SO THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST BASICALLY SHADOWS THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MODEL
FORECASTED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN FORECAST ON SOME DAYS DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS COULD GO ALL NIGHT DUE TO A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL TRENDS WITH WINDS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THAT LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



000
FXUS65 KREV 262134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE
WINDS MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWELL AND WILLOW FIRES ALONG WITH WESTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POOR AIR QUALITY
TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE BACK
TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST. ULTIMATELY, SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD CLEAR
BY MONDAY EVENING RESIDING WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA.

AFTER A TROUGH STRAFES THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING MAINLY FROM VERY NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS PRODUCING A STRONG WARMING TREND
FROM MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY; MID/UPPER 80S
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY ZEPHYRS RETURNING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY
THURSDAY AND STAY IN THE HIGH 90`S TO LOW 100`S INTO THE WEEKEND.

GFS/EC CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EC CONTINUES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS CLIMBING
OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY IN WESTERN NEVADA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
HEIGHT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH REFORECAST
ANALOGS AND NAEFS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THIS IS A TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA; EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KTS UNTIL AS LATE AS 09Z WITH SOME AREAS
CONTINUING WITH WESTERLY PREVAILING WINDS (5-10 KTS) THROUGH 15Z.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM LOCAL FIRES MAY IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE SMOKE FROM
WORKING INTO THE REGION. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 262134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE
WINDS MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWELL AND WILLOW FIRES ALONG WITH WESTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POOR AIR QUALITY
TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE BACK
TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST. ULTIMATELY, SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD CLEAR
BY MONDAY EVENING RESIDING WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA.

AFTER A TROUGH STRAFES THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING MAINLY FROM VERY NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS PRODUCING A STRONG WARMING TREND
FROM MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY; MID/UPPER 80S
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY ZEPHYRS RETURNING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY
THURSDAY AND STAY IN THE HIGH 90`S TO LOW 100`S INTO THE WEEKEND.

GFS/EC CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EC CONTINUES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS CLIMBING
OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY IN WESTERN NEVADA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
HEIGHT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH REFORECAST
ANALOGS AND NAEFS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THIS IS A TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA; EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KTS UNTIL AS LATE AS 09Z WITH SOME AREAS
CONTINUING WITH WESTERLY PREVAILING WINDS (5-10 KTS) THROUGH 15Z.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM LOCAL FIRES MAY IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD KEEP MORE SMOKE FROM
WORKING INTO THE REGION. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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