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000
FXUS65 KREV 230319
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
819 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST CWA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THICKENING CLOUDS WITH SOME COOLING TOPS WHILE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS OVER LASSEN COUNTY ALREADY. THESE MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH
WIDESPREAD LIFT...OTHER THAN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IN NORTHERN CA, WE`LL SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH, BUT IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE
TAHOE IN LASSEN, PLUMAS AND MODOC COUNTIES. TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET UP TO 0.25"
OF RAINFALL, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 395 WILL GET 0.10" OR
LESS. SINCE MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AROUND 9000-10000FT OR MORE.

INCREASED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY MAY PUT A DAMPER ON VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE AREA FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE IN THE
DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUDS THURSDAY
AND THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE.

BY FRIDAY, A STRONG JET MAX MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL LIFT THE
RIDGE OVER NEVADA, PULLING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA. WE`VE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SO WE`VE ALSO LOWERED
THE WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THE ADVANCING TROUGH OFF THE
NORCAL COAST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WITH RIDGE LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 50 MPH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOON

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE MAIN
CHANGES CONCERN TIMING VARIANCES AS MODELS RESOLVE MAJOR FEATURES.
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND, FOR INSTANCE, HAS SLOWED A
LITTLE. THEREFORE, IT WAS NECESSARY TO TRIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOSTLY OUT OF CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. AS THE WAVE SPLITS,
ANOTHER JET IMPULSE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE MORE LATITUDINAL RATHER THAN THE EASTWARD PUSH WE WERE
EXPECTING BEFORE. THE PATTERN`S SHIFT WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD WITH LESS SPILLING OVER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SPECIFICALLY, EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. WHILE WINDS DECREASE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THESE CHANCES OF MOSTLY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
EXIT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TRANSITING
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KT.

MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE OVER THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SIERRA. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA WITH THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF DEGRADED CEILINGS TO AT LEAST
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR ON SATURDAY AT SIERRA TERMINALS. WH/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KVEF 230318 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
818 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD ALONG THE SIERRA
SLOPES AS A TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO COOLER WEATHER AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
-SALMEN-

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...245 PM PDT...

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BUMP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERTS (6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER) AS 588 DM HEIGHTS NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PACIFIC TROUGHING NUDGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THEY LOOK TO STAY BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER DRY...VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD BE GENERATED.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL JET FLOW SITS
ACROSS THE U.S. AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A LONG STRING OF 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN
OCTOBER FOR LAS VEGAS (THE ENTIRE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE MONTH FOR
THAT MATTER)...70S DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME TENDENCY FOR EASTERLY COMPONENTS AFTER 18Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES OCCASIONAL SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT CLEAR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KREV 222202
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IN NORTHERN CA, WE`LL SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH, BUT IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE
TAHOE IN LASSEN, PLUMAS AND MODOC COUNTIES. TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET UP TO 0.25"
OF RAINFALL, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 395 WILL GET 0.10" OR
LESS. SINCE MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AROUND 9000-10000FT OR MORE.

INCREASED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY MAY PUT A DAMPER ON VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE AREA FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE IN THE
DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUDS THURSDAY
AND THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE.

BY FRIDAY, A STRONG JET MAX MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL LIFT THE
RIDGE OVER NEVADA, PULLING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA. WE`VE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SO WE`VE ALSO LOWERED
THE WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THE ADVANCING TROUGH OFF THE
NORCAL COAST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WITH RIDGE LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 50 MPH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE MAIN
CHANGES CONCERN TIMING VARIANCES AS MODELS RESOLVE MAJOR FEATURES.
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND, FOR INSTANCE, HAS SLOWED A
LITTLE. THEREFORE, IT WAS NECESSARY TO TRIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOSTLY OUT OF CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. AS THE WAVE SPLITS,
ANOTHER JET IMPULSE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE MORE LATITUDINAL RATHER THAN THE EASTWARD PUSH WE WERE
EXPECTING BEFORE. THE PATTERN`S SHIFT WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD WITH LESS SPILLING OVER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SPECIFICALLY, EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. WHILE WINDS DECREASE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THESE CHANCES OF MOSTLY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
EXIT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TRANSITING
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KT.

MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE OVER THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SIERRA. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA WITH THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF DEGRADED CEILINGS TO AT LEAST
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR ON SATURDAY AT SIERRA TERMINALS. WH/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KVEF 222142
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD ALONG THE SIERRA
SLOPES AS A TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO COOLER WEATHER AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BUMP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERTS (6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER) AS 588 DM HEIGHTS NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PACIFIC TROUGHING NUDGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THEY LOOK TO STAY BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER DRY...VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD BE GENERATED.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL JET FLOW SITS
ACROSS THE U.S. AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A LONG STRING OF 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN
OCTOBER FOR LAS VEGAS (THE ENTIRE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE MONTH FOR
THAT MATTER)...70S DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME TENDENCY FOR EASTERLY COMPONENTS AFTER 18Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES OCCASIONAL SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT CLEAR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












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000
FXUS65 KLKN 222120
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S THURSDAY AND MID 70S FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING FRIDAY.
WINDS BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTIES THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SUNNY AND DRY WITH CONTINUED
WARMING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS MOST VALLEY AREAS HIT 75
DEGREES. WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON EARLY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...LEADING TO BRIEF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
FUELS REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE
WITH TROF AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING ACROSS
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. EC FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. BY 00Z MONDAY...GFS HAS THE FRONT IN EASTERN NV
WHILE EC PLACES IT IN CENTRAL UT. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGEST RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE EC STRONGEST WITH THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...EC DIGS
A STRONGER AND COLDER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHILE GFS HAS A
"DIRTY" RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES CLOUDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THUS
HAVE LOW POPS WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
ZONES DRY WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES FOR DAY 7. TEMPERATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND
KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

96/87/87






000
FXUS65 KVEF 221613
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER RATHER WARM OCTOBER DAY IS IN STORE WITH
THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATING A HIGH IN LAS VEGAS OF 86F...WHICH
IS ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.


&&
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-ADVISORY
WINDS AT THIS TIME. THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY WITH TWO WAVES OF ENERGY SLATED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY JUST CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE SECOND WILL SWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE OF A NORTHERLY
WIND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE
SHOULD STILL COOL DOWN NICELY SUNDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS
ALOFT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS...AND THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH. WE
SHOULD THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. WOULD
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 7KTS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE BETWEEN 14-18Z. AFTER 18Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS OVER MOST
AREAS TODAY WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$
UPDATE...OUTLER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KREV 221006
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
306 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

EXPECT A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT, SIERRA
RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER, WITH GUSTS ACROSS RIDGETOPS
INCREASING TO 30-50 MPH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO MEDIUM FOR THE PACIFIC TROUGH
TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PLUMAS, LASSEN, MODOC AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE HIGH, LIKELY IN THE 0.75 TO 0.85 INCH RANGE, BUT
FORCING FOR LIFT FAIRLY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR RAINFALL TOTALS 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE LIFT WEST OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO
PORTOLA, DECREASING TO 0.10 TO 0.20 FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE A WEAK
IMPULSE COULD EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC LOW AND PROVIDE FORCING FOR
LIFT. IF THAT OCCURRED, THESE PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY
DOUBLE DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER SUCH THAT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. NONETHELESS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GRADIENT-DRIVEN GUSTS
TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD
CREATE FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS NEVADA ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHERN CA NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN NV, INCLUDING ACROSS THE WASHOE VALLEY AND THE I-80
CORRIDORS, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING MONO COUNTY.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS UP TO 45 MPH
(IN WIND PRONE AREAS 50-60 MPH), AND ACROSS RIDGETOPS 60-80 MPH.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT TRAVELERS, ESPECIALLY HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND AVIATION EAST OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT. JCM

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODELS ARE STICKING WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING NORTHEAST CA BY SAT MORNING
AND THEN CROSSING THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV DURING THE DAYTIME.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND ALLOWED US TO GO AHEAD AND
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY. LOWER CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH AS MAIN MOISTURE PUSH STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN CA
BEFORE WANING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS A BIT BETTER THAN PREVIOUS TROUGHS. SO EVEN THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES FROM WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND SIERRA COUNTIES. WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN AS THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE TRACKING ALONG THE OREGON BORDER
ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR DURING THE
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMUP OCCURS MON-TUE
UNDER WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW
WARMING MONDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40KT. MJD/WH


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 221006
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
306 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

EXPECT A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT, SIERRA
RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER, WITH GUSTS ACROSS RIDGETOPS
INCREASING TO 30-50 MPH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO MEDIUM FOR THE PACIFIC TROUGH
TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PLUMAS, LASSEN, MODOC AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE HIGH, LIKELY IN THE 0.75 TO 0.85 INCH RANGE, BUT
FORCING FOR LIFT FAIRLY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR RAINFALL TOTALS 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE LIFT WEST OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO
PORTOLA, DECREASING TO 0.10 TO 0.20 FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE A WEAK
IMPULSE COULD EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC LOW AND PROVIDE FORCING FOR
LIFT. IF THAT OCCURRED, THESE PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY
DOUBLE DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER SUCH THAT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. NONETHELESS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GRADIENT-DRIVEN GUSTS
TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD
CREATE FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS NEVADA ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHERN CA NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN NV, INCLUDING ACROSS THE WASHOE VALLEY AND THE I-80
CORRIDORS, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING MONO COUNTY.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS UP TO 45 MPH
(IN WIND PRONE AREAS 50-60 MPH), AND ACROSS RIDGETOPS 60-80 MPH.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT TRAVELERS, ESPECIALLY HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND AVIATION EAST OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT. JCM

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODELS ARE STICKING WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING NORTHEAST CA BY SAT MORNING
AND THEN CROSSING THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV DURING THE DAYTIME.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND ALLOWED US TO GO AHEAD AND
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY. LOWER CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH AS MAIN MOISTURE PUSH STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN CA
BEFORE WANING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS A BIT BETTER THAN PREVIOUS TROUGHS. SO EVEN THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES FROM WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND SIERRA COUNTIES. WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN AS THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE TRACKING ALONG THE OREGON BORDER
ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR DURING THE
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMUP OCCURS MON-TUE
UNDER WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW
WARMING MONDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40KT. MJD/WH


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 220929
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-ADVISORY
WINDS AT THIS TIME. THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY WITH TWO WAVES OF ENERGY SLATED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY JUST CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE SECOND WILL SWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE OF A NORTHERLY
WIND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE
SHOULD STILL COOL DOWN NICELY SUNDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS
ALOFT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS...AND THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH. WE
SHOULD THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. WOULD
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 7KTS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE BETWEEN 14-18Z. AFTER 18Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS OVER MOST
AREAS TODAY WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KLKN 220912
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
212 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SUNSHINE RETURNS FRIDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY RAIN...SNOW...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CIRRUS HAS THINNED ENOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO KICK IN, WITH MANY VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 20S, BUT
THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

DRY AND MILDER TODAY, BUT CLOUDY BY THIS AFTERNOON. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LONG STRETCH OF CIRRUS STREAMING OUT
INTO THE PACIFIC, AND THIS WILL BE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST NORTH
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATION FOR THE VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE IN NEVADA, THE
BETTER VIEW YOU WILL HAVE. ACROSS NW NEVADA, MOIST PACIFIC JET
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESS INTO NEVADA WILL BE VERY LIMITED, STAYING
EVEN NORTH OF WINNEMUCCA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SHOW PRONOUNCED WARMING TODAY AND THURSDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND
A SW BREEZE HELPS WITH MIXING EACH AFTERNOON. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY, WITH LOWER 70S RETURNING THURSDAY. SW
WINDS WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.

FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SW U.S. AMPLIFIES, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA, WHILE A
STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL FORCE THE PACIFIC JET TO RETREAT NORTH OF
NEVADA, TAKING THE CLOUDS AND ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. NEAR
FULL SUN EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WARM AIR FLOWING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL SEND MAX TEMPS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN, WITH MID 70S COMMON. WARMEST VALLEYS WILL CRACK 80
DEGREES FRIDAY, IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER.  BT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE
PRETTY WELL IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG HAUL...WITH
DIFFERENCES COMING QUICKLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THICKNESSES FALL BUT DON`T SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...DESCENDING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO SOME VALLEY FLOORS. SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ABOVE
7000 FEET MSL BUT BIGGEST ACCUMS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHEST TERRAIN
SUCH AS IN THE RUBIES/EAST HUMBOLDTS AND JARBIDGE WILDERNESS...
POSSIBLY THE INDEPENDENCE AND SANTA ROSA RANGES. BEST TIME PERIOD
WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE EURO IS THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL ON THIS EVENT WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY A BIT PATHETIC.
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND ORIENTATION
THE KEYS AND THERE ARE ENOUGH SMALLER DIFFERENCES THAT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH AS IT COULD BE...BUT IS GROWING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S...APART FROM
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NORTHERN NYE WHERE SOME HIGHS CLOSE TO 60S COULD
STILL HAPPEN. SYSTEM WANES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WHEN ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES BACK OVER THE
REGION BUT...AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WANES TOO AS MODELS START TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES. TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...60S BY TUESDAY. BB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...
AND KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NOTE...MAJOR CHANGE IN WEATHER
ON THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPS...RAIN SHOWERS...AND RAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT KWMC AND
POSSIBLY MIXED RAIN/SNOW AT KEKO. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ALOFT AND OVER
RIDGE LINES...GENERALLY FROM THE RUBIES NORTH.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98








000
FXUS65 KVEF 220447 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
947 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 220447 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
947 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 220349
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
849 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A MINOR UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SKY
COVER EARLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND THIS GOES ALONG WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY STAY
CLEAR LONGER OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE RIDES OVER A WEAK FLAT
RIDGE. UPDATES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...AND WILL MOSTLY AFFECT THE
PINT AND CLICK FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO THE ZONE FORECAST. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 220349
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
849 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A MINOR UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SKY
COVER EARLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND THIS GOES ALONG WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY STAY
CLEAR LONGER OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE RIDES OVER A WEAK FLAT
RIDGE. UPDATES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...AND WILL MOSTLY AFFECT THE
PINT AND CLICK FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO THE ZONE FORECAST. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 212155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 212155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KLKN 212135
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO COUNTIES THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE
WEST COAST. CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS WILL ALL
INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA...WITH
THICKEST CLOUDS AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS NW NEVADA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHOULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW
REBUILDING BY FRIDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS NW NEVADA
BACK INTO CA AND OREGON. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. A SLOW PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON THE FOOTHILLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
DRY PERIOD. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE UNDER A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS NEVADA BENEFITS FROM
A PULSE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EXISTING RIDGE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE INCOMING TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC COASTAL AREA EASTWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING A FASTER FLOW THAN
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE CURRENT GFS. THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EXITING RIDGE AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE STRENGTHENING. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THERE ARE SOME DEPTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THE TROUGHS
SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THUS COLD AIR PENETRATES DEEPER INTO THE CWFA.
SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP TO AROUND 5500 FEET NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. A DEFINITE CHILL WILL BE IN THE AIR AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HELD TO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY.

SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD.
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE MONDAY
MORNING HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO
THE MID 20S AS SOME CLEARING OCCURS. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 60S...NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/92/92






000
FXUS65 KLKN 212135
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO COUNTIES THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE
WEST COAST. CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS WILL ALL
INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA...WITH
THICKEST CLOUDS AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS NW NEVADA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHOULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW
REBUILDING BY FRIDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS NW NEVADA
BACK INTO CA AND OREGON. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. A SLOW PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON THE FOOTHILLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
DRY PERIOD. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE UNDER A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS NEVADA BENEFITS FROM
A PULSE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EXISTING RIDGE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE INCOMING TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC COASTAL AREA EASTWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING A FASTER FLOW THAN
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE CURRENT GFS. THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EXITING RIDGE AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE STRENGTHENING. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THERE ARE SOME DEPTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THE TROUGHS
SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THUS COLD AIR PENETRATES DEEPER INTO THE CWFA.
SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP TO AROUND 5500 FEET NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. A DEFINITE CHILL WILL BE IN THE AIR AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HELD TO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY.

SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD.
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE MONDAY
MORNING HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO
THE MID 20S AS SOME CLEARING OCCURS. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 60S...NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/92/92






000
FXUS65 KVEF 212134
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 212134
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 211657 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. TWEAKED THE WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY THEN DECREASING
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 211657 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. TWEAKED THE WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY THEN DECREASING
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210944
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 210944
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KLKN 210937
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98








000
FXUS65 KLKN 210937
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98







000
FXUS65 KREV 210548 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1048 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES AND TO BEGIN REDUCING
SHOWERS. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING NOW AS THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH
THE 395 CORRIDOR WITH PEAK GUSTS NOW ONLY AROUND 30 MPH EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FAR AS RAIN, THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH LAKE TAHOE AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WASHOE COUNTY. WITH THIS BAND WEAKENING AND THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON BORDER, REDUCED MOST AREAS TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS INSTABILITY.
THE EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF THE BAND OVER PERSHING COUNTY IS
WEAKER THAN FORECAST AND ALSO FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE,
REDUCED SHOWER COVERAGE THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED TONIGHT. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. AFTER A COOL DAY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF
THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

QUICK MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE LOW THIS EVENING ARE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM SOUTH LAKE TAHOE TO LOVELOCK.

FOR THE WINDS...PEAK GUSTS IN THE VALLEY OF 35-45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 395. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON TRACK FROM 6 TO 10 PM
THIS EVENING ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, HOWEVER DO THINK 40-50
MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS HANGING
AROUND THROUGH 3 AM.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST THIS EVENING, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS UP TO 0.50 INCH OVER PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY. AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ALONG THE WEST
SHORE OF TAHOE WHERE UP TO 0.20 INCH IS POSSIBLE. ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH, THOUGH AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.25 INCH MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET, THOUGH
STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 6000-6500 FEET.

BEHIND THE LOW AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR TUESDAY WITH
THE NEVADA VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH 50S FOR THE SIERRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PACIFIC ENERGY. BRONG

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS INTACT WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHEN THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION,
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS OCCURRING ANYTIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY, BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV, THEN RETREAT FARTHER NORTH AS
TROUGH DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR LONGITUDE 130W. WE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR, HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES AND COULD EVEN PUSH
INTO THE MID 80S IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING AND MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUICK WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NV. THE MOISTURE TAP WILL INITIALLY BE BETTER
SO RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. HOWEVER, THIS
MOISTURE BAND WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON
SATURDAY SO FROM RENO-CARSON EASTWARD, ONLY SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
PROJECTED AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST
AREAS.

WEAK RIDGE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
LIGHT EAST WINDS DEVELOP AND PRODUCE A STRONGER INVERSION, FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHT WARM UP ON MONDAY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS NEVADA.
MJD

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT AIRPORT
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS. RIDGE GUSTS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WILL REACH
65-70 KT, WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LEE SIDE TURBULENCE.

BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND SPREAD TO NORTHWEST NV AND THE BASIN AND RANGE THIS
EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY COULD OCCUR BTWN 02-05Z
FOR KTVL/KTRK DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GENERALLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO
GERLACH LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY. HOHMANN/MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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