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000
FXUS65 KREV 312211
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS TO
HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A JET MAXIMUM IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE RESULTING IN SLOWER PROGRESSION AND A MORE
SOUTHERN OVERALL TRAJECTORY. THIS HAS OTHER IMPLICATIONS RATHER
THAN TIMING AND WAS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION WITH THE FEW CHANGES
THAT WERE MADE.

DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SLOWER AND DEEPER SYSTEM, HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY THROUGH
THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. OVERALL THE
ADJUSTMENT AMOUNTED TO QPF TOTALS UP TO NEARLY 0.66 INCHES MORE
THAN DOUBLING THE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. OUTLYING
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGHER POTENTIALS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING UP TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT SUGGESTING ABOUT AT 25%
CHANCE THAT OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH THE
FIRST WINTER SYSTEM ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS START AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO
FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SIERRA. BY SATURDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 5500 FEET. GENERALLY IN THE SIERRA, QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.75" TO ABOUT 1.5" WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND JUST LEE
OF THE SIERRA CREST.

THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM FAVORS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS TOWARDS MONO COUNTY, BUT THE DURATIONS WILL YIELD
SIGNIFICANT TOTALS IN THE TAHOE BASIN ABOVE 7000 FEET AS WELL. UP
TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE CREST IN MONO
COUNTY AND UP TO 15 INCHES FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. THESE TOTALS FALL
OFF RAPIDLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN DUE TO TYPICAL SHADOWING.
HOWEVER, A DEFORMATION BAND WILL LIKELY SET UP NORTH OF THE LOW
RESULTING IN THE HIGHER LIQUID TOTALS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE, LIQUID EQUIVALENTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
0.25" TO 0.5".

CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WILL
TREND MUCH COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES, AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO WINTERIZE VULNERABLE
SYSTEMS SUCH AS LAWN SPRINKLERS. EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING
URBAN CENTERS. BOYD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CA COAST
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AS IT DOES,
THE STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OREGON BORDER AT TIMES, BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYS NORTH SO WE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY. THE
LATEST (12Z FRI) RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRY
(FOR NORTHEAST CA, THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV) FORECASTS OF THE LAST
SEVERAL GEM AND GFS RUNS. AS SUCH, WE`VE KEPT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH PASSAGE TO CREATE A
PERIOD OF BREEZY OR STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. JCM

.AVIATION...

AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY CENTER AROUND IMPACTS FROM THE
INCOMING STORM. SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES GUSTS COULD
REACH UP TO 65 KTS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A HUGE WIND
PRODUCER THERE SHOULD STILL BE POCKETS OF TURBULENCE OVER AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS PCPN MOVES INTO THE
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS START NEAR THE PEAKS THEN LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SIERRA TERMINALS WITH
OBSCURED MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS ON SIERRA RUNWAYS SHOULD BE
LIMITED EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR KTRK AND KTVL BY LATE EVENING AND KMMH AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR KMMH BY MORNING...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR KTRK AND KTVL.

EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS AND VSBYS WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS BELOW 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THESE TERMINALS...ICING ON APPROACH AND
DEPARTURE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING BY THE
EVENING. 20/11
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 312204
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SIERRA
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS TO
HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A JET MAXIMUM IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE RESULTING IN SLOWER PROGRESSION AND A MORE
SOUTHERN OVERALL TRAJECTORY. THIS HAS OTHER IMPLICATIONS RATHER
THAN TIMING AND WAS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION WITH THE FEW CHANGES
THAT WERE MADE.

DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SLOWER AND DEEPER SYSTEM, HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY THROUGH
THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. OVERALL THE
ADJUSTMENT AMOUNTED TO QPF TOTALS UP TO NEARLY 0.66 INCHES MORE
THAN DOUBLING THE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. OUTLYING
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGHER POTENTIALS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING UP TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT SUGGESTING ABOUT AT 25%
CHANCE THAT OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH THE
FIRST WINTER SYSTEM ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS START AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO
FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SIERRA. BY SATURDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 5500 FEET. GENERALLY IN THE SIERRA, QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.75" TO ABOUT 1.5" WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND JUST LEE
OF THE SIERRA CREST.

THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM FAVORS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS TOWARDS MONO COUNTY, BUT THE DURATIONS WILL YIELD
SIGNIFICANT TOTALS IN THE TAHOE BASIN ABOVE 7000 FEET AS WELL. UP
TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE CREST IN MONO
COUNTY AND UP TO 15 INCHES FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. THESE TOTALS FALL
OFF RAPIDLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN DUE TO TYPICAL SHADOWING.
HOWEVER, A DEFORMATION BAND WILL LIKELY SET UP NORTH OF THE LOW
RESULTING IN THE HIGHER LIQUID TOTALS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE, LIQUID EQUIVALENTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
0.25" TO 0.5".

CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WILL
TREND MUCH COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES, AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO WINTERIZE VULNERABLE
SYSTEMS SUCH AS LAWN SPRINKLERS. EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING
URBAN CENTERS. BOYD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CA COAST
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AS IT DOES,
THE STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OREGON BORDER AT TIMES, BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYS NORTH SO WE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THURSDAY. THE
LATEST (12Z FRI) RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRY
(FOR NORTHEAST CA, THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV) FORECASTS OF THE LAST
SEVERAL GEM AND GFS RUNS. AS SUCH, WE`VE KEPT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH PASSAGE TO CREATE A
PERIOD OF BREEZY OR STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. JCM

.AVIATION...

AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY CENTER AROUND IMPACTS FROM THE
INCOMING STORM. SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES GUSTS COULD
REACH UP TO 65 KTS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A HUGE WIND
PRODUCER THERE SHOULD STILL BE POCKETS OF TURBULENCE OVER AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS PCPN MOVES INTO THE
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS START NEAR THE PEAKS THEN LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SIERRA TERMINALS WITH
OBSCURED MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS ON SIERRA RUNWAYS SHOULD BE
LIMITED EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR KTRK AND KTVL BY LATE EVENING AND KMMH AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR KMMH BY MORNING...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR KTRK AND KTVL.

EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS AND VSBYS WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS BELOW 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THESE TERMINALS...ICING ON APPROACH AND
DEPARTURE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING BY THE
EVENING. 20/11
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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000
FXUS65 KVEF 312138
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
238 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WITH SNOW IN THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW WARMING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN
BISHOP. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND FROM
OVER 9000 TO BELOW 7000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6 TO
10 INCH RANGE. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES WITH THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE EAST SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
LINCOLN COUNTY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY IN CLARK AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. A BAND OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LAGGING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, LIGHTER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL
REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK WHICH COULD FLATTEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT SOME
POINT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE AREA
WEATHER. MODEL RH AND WIND FIELDS REMAIN ON THE LOW END AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. WE WILL MONITOR FOR MODEL CHANGES TO THE
SYSTEM AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS AOA 25KFT. WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 11Z BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO
5-10KFT. WIND SHOULD REMAIN 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT BUT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WIND IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. WIND WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS. CLOUD BASES WILL DESCEND AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. BASES OF 5-10KFT ARE POSSIBLE WITH -SH MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF A KDAG TO KLAS TO KIGM LINE. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: BERC
LONG TERM: SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 311645
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&


.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS GOOD SO NO
UPDATES THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST A FEW REFINEMENTS TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
TODAY MAY BE THE LAST 80+ DEGREE DAY WE SEE FOR A WHILE IN LAS VEGAS
AS A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60`S. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. AS
IT DOES SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM OVER 9000 FEET TO BETWEEN 6500
AND 7000 FEET BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY IN THE SIERRA OF INYO
COUNTY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH PRODUCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED DYNAMICS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN
PLACE STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST IT WILL
BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS [MAINLY SATURDAY
MORNING]. A WEAK PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DRAWN UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE...
LINCOLN AND NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE
GUSTY WINDS PRODUCED BY THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND PRODUCTS FOR THE MOMENT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED. IN THE
MOUNTAINS THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSTABLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...AND A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ANY
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD 6 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT BY MID WEEK RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR MCCARRAN...AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED A BRIEF [APPROXIMATELY 1 HOUR] PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEFORE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY AOA 15K FEET THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD BASES
MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10K FEET. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHRA
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF EVEN LOWER CIGS...MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD BASES

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: WOLCOTT
LONG TERM: CZYZYK
UPDATE: BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








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000
FXUS65 KLKN 311105
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
405 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THEN NOVEMBER WILL START
OUT UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEVADA. A LINE OF CLOUDS WITH HIGHER TOPS ARE CRESTING
THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE AT THIS HOUR AND THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE
HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
OKAY BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXTENT
SOUTH AND THE FUTURE EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE DIGGING WITH THE TROUGH
THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION ONSET AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST ONE MORE DAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER FAR
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BEFORE THE DAY ENDS BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE VERY HIGH. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. A WIND ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT AND BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO AGREE TO MOVE
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THERE IS STILL AN
IMBALANCE OF JET ENERGY FAVORING THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FURTHER DIGGING. AS OF NOW...MODELS INDICATE THE
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH A
CONTINUED STRONG WARM SURGE OVER EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NYE COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WHEN BETTER
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR IS ASSESSED.

SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSET OF A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPARTING STORM WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO COOL NW FLOW...BUT WILL WARM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ZONAL MOIST FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN
NEVADA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THIS MOIST ZONAL FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUICK AND DIRTY RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
NEVADA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPS. BY THURSDAY...IT BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AND A DRIER/CLEARER SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SOME NICE EARLY NOV DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KWMC SEEING VCSH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A BKN/OVC
DECK BETWEEN 15-20K WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN KELY/KTPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE MVFR AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
IFR TO ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE DETAILS WILL BE
GIVEN IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL POSE A
CONCERN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457 BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 311041
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THEN NOVEMBER WILL START
OUT UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEVADA. A LINE OF CLOUDS WITH HIGHER TOPS ARE CRESTING
THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE AT THIS HOUR AND THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE
HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
OKAY BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXTENT
SOUTH AND THE FUTURE EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE DIGGING WITH THE TROUGH
THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION ONSET AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST ONE MORE DAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER FAR
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BEFORE THE DAY ENDS BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE VERY HIGH. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. A WIND ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT AND BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO AGREE TO MOVE
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THERE IS STILL AN
IMBALANCE OF JET ENERGY FAVORING THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FURTHER DIGGING. AS OF NOW...MODELS INDICATE THE
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH A
CONTINUED STRONG WARM SURGE OVER EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WHEN BETTER
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR IS ASSESSED.

SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSET OF A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPARTING STORM WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO COOL NW FLOW...BUT WILL WARM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ZONAL MOIST FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN
NEVADA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THIS MOIST ZONAL FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUICK AND DIRTY RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
NEVADA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPS. BY THURSDAY...IT BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AND A DRIER/CLEARER SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SOME NICE EARLY NOV DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KWMC SEEING VCSH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A BKN/OVC
DECK BETWEEN 15-20K WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN KELY/KTPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE MVFR AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
IFR TO ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE DETAILS WILL BE
GIVEN IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL POSE A
CONCERN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457 BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 311041
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THEN NOVEMBER WILL START
OUT UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEVADA. A LINE OF CLOUDS WITH HIGHER TOPS ARE CRESTING
THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE AT THIS HOUR AND THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE
HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
OKAY BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXTENT
SOUTH AND THE FUTURE EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE DIGGING WITH THE TROUGH
THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION ONSET AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST ONE MORE DAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER FAR
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BEFORE THE DAY ENDS BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE VERY HIGH. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. A WIND ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT AND BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO AGREE TO MOVE
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THERE IS STILL AN
IMBALANCE OF JET ENERGY FAVORING THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FURTHER DIGGING. AS OF NOW...MODELS INDICATE THE
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH A
CONTINUED STRONG WARM SURGE OVER EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WHEN BETTER
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR IS ASSESSED.

SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSET OF A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPARTING STORM WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO COOL NW FLOW...BUT WILL WARM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ZONAL MOIST FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN
NEVADA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THIS MOIST ZONAL FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUICK AND DIRTY RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
NEVADA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPS. BY THURSDAY...IT BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AND A DRIER/CLEARER SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SOME NICE EARLY NOV DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KWMC SEEING VCSH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A BKN/OVC
DECK BETWEEN 15-20K WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN KELY/KTPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE MVFR AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
IFR TO ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE DETAILS WILL BE
GIVEN IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL POSE A
CONCERN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457 BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KREV 311019
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SIERRA
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NUDGED UP QPF FURTHER NEAR THE MONO COUNTY CREST LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE NO NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS WILL
ADVANCE TO NEAR THE SIERRA THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. BY LATE THIS EVENING, A FAIRLY DYNAMIC
DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
PROVIDE FORCING FOR INTENSIFYING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WITH THE GOOD FORCING ALOFT, THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
HOLD TOGETHER WELL ALL THE WAY THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA WITH
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS EXPECTED.

AS FAR AS OROGRAPHICS IN THE SIERRA, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
EVENING WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN
SIERRA ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL STILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY NEAR CREST) HEAVY SNOW. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FOR BETTER
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO ALPINE AND MONO COUNTY, THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER FORCING AND MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED OROGRAPHICS WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TO THAT AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS TEND TO UNDER-DO
PRECIPITATION IN THE MAMMOTH AREA, THEREFORE I HAD TO MANUALLY
ADJUST QPF UPWARD NEAR THE MONO AND SOUTHERN ALPINE COUNTY CREST.

AS FAR AS SNOW LEVELS, THEY REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED WELL INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, ROAD TROUBLES OVER
THE LOWER NORTHERN SIERRA PASSES SUCH AS I-80 AND US-50 MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID EVENING (~8-9 PM) OR SO. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL QUICKLY
WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING
CAUSING ALL SIERRA PASSES TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY DRIVING CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY MORNING, THE DYNAMIC UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER, THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE TROUGH`S COLD POOL WITH MODELS STILL
HINTING AT A WRAP-AROUND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY WHERE A BAND OF SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING, I
HAVE KEPT THE BROAD-BRUSH LIKELY POP FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA NORTH OF ABOUT HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY
WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY, THE REGION DRIES OUT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BE COPIOUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYS NORTH SO WE HAVE LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

THE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO DECREASED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
REACHING ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
U.S. BY THIS TIME BUT THERE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE PART OF THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS OUR AREA. GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FAR LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANY
CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE AREA. ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS PCPN TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM AND GFS KEEP THE AREA DRIER...WITH THE
GFS THE DRIEST. DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WE
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY...BUT WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT CENTER AROUND IMPACTS
FROM THE INCOMING STORM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-30 KT BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES GUSTS COULD REACH
UP TO 65 KTS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A HUGE WIND PRODUCER
THERE SHOULD STILL BE POCKETS OF TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CIGS LOWER LATER TODAY AS PCPN STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA. SNOW
LEVELS START NEAR THE PEAKS THEN LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY 1/02 UTC FOR
SIERRA TERMINALS WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS ON SIERRA
RUNWAYS SHOULD BE LIMITED EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR KTRK AND KTVL BY LATE EVENING AND KMMH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR KMMH BY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR KTRK AND KTVL.

EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS AND VSBYS WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINALS BELOW 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THESE TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ROUGHLY
5500-6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING SO ICING ON APPROACH AND DEPARTURE
IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING BY THE EVENING. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 310922
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
222 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST A FEW REFINEMENTS TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
TODAY MAY BE THE LAST 80+ DEGREE DAY WE SEE FOR A WHILE IN LAS VEGAS
AS A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60`S. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. AS
IT DOES SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM OVER 9000 FEET TO BETWEEN 6500
AND 7000 FEET BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY IN THE SIERRA OF INYO
COUNTY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH PRODUCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED DYNAMICS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN
PLACE STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST IT WILL
BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS [MAINLY SATURDAY
MORNING]. A WEAK PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DRAWN UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE...
LINCOLN AND NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE
GUSTY WINDS PRODUCED BY THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND PRODUCTS FOR THE MOMENT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED. IN THE
MOUNTAINS THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSTABLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...AND A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ANY
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD 6 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT BY MID WEEK RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED A BRIEF [APPROXIMATELY 1 HOUR] PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEFORE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY AOA 15K FEET THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD BASES
MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10K FEET. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHRA
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF EVEN LOWER CIGS...MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD BASES
AS LOW AS 5K-10K FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH. CIGS AND VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER FURTHER NEAR ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME
FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM...CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 310421
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
921 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HALLOWEEN EVENING
THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SCATTERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SHORT RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 315 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND
AND IT NOW APPEARS ENERGY WILL DIG A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
THE MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY.

OUR REGION WAS UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND OUR FOCUS IS NOW ON THE DEEP
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FORM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT A
LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 35
MPH...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AND NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED
FRIDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SIERRA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND IT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS REPLACED BY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 5 PM FRIDAY
THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
SHOT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. ALSO...THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO SYSTEM AND
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DRAG A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL
DOWN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE IS QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONS MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THIS WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED
SUNDAY TO INDICATE THIS TREND AND WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS SETUP COULD FAVOR
AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
DEEPER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY NORTH WIND CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM BUT THEN A WARMING TREND SHOULD RETURN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 20 KTS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD BASES AS LOW
AS 7K-10K FEET AS WELL AS FEW SHRA IN AND AROUND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 5K-10K
FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH.
VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 310421
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
921 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HALLOWEEN EVENING
THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SCATTERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SHORT RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 315 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND
AND IT NOW APPEARS ENERGY WILL DIG A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
THE MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY.

OUR REGION WAS UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND OUR FOCUS IS NOW ON THE DEEP
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FORM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT A
LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 35
MPH...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AND NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED
FRIDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SIERRA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND IT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS REPLACED BY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 5 PM FRIDAY
THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
SHOT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. ALSO...THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO SYSTEM AND
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DRAG A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL
DOWN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE IS QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONS MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THIS WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED
SUNDAY TO INDICATE THIS TREND AND WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS SETUP COULD FAVOR
AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
DEEPER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY NORTH WIND CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM BUT THEN A WARMING TREND SHOULD RETURN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 20 KTS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD BASES AS LOW
AS 7K-10K FEET AS WELL AS FEW SHRA IN AND AROUND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 5K-10K
FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH.
VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KLKN 302247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
347 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. SATURDAY
MUCH COLDER AND SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. RAIN AND
SNOW MIX EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6,000 FEET. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON SUNDAY
WITH IMPROVING WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INVADING THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
MAY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...HAVE
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ZONES. RH WILL BE ABOVE 15
PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS SO NO RFW CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
AND THE NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
6,000 TO 7,000 FEET. ISSUED IMPACT BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW ON ROADS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ABOVE 6,000 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL NEAVADA. MOST ISSUES
WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON PASSES
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. BY SUNSET SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON PASSES
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTIME HOURS. WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS DETERMINE IF ANOTHER SNOW ADVISORY IS NEEDED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. TROUGH OVER
NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...OR JUST RAIN...OTHERWISE
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY MAY SEE AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE A TRACE UP TO A HALF
INCH OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES BY SUNDAY
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE QUICKER TO EJECT THE TROUGH AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS MODELS...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY AND ALL OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE MTS OF WHITE PINE COUNTY...OTHERWISE
DRY WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS. DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE
SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SPREADING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

90/96/96




000
FXUS65 KVEF 302215
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
315 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HALLOWEEN EVENING
THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND
AND IT NOW APPEARS ENERGY WILL DIG A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
THE MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY.

OUR REGION WAS UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND OUR FOCUS IS NOW ON THE DEEP
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FORM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT A
LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 35
MPH...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AND NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED
FRIDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SIERRA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND IT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS REPLACED BY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 5 PM FRIDAY
THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
SHOT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. ALSO...THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO SYSTEM AND
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DRAG A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL
DOWN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE IS QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONS MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THIS WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED
SUNDAY TO INDICATE THIS TREND AND WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS SETUP COULD FAVOR
AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
DEEPER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY NORTH WIND CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM BUT THEN A WARMING TREND SHOULD RETURN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 20 KTS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD BASES AS LOW
AS 7K-10K FEET AS WELL AS FEW SHRA IN AND AROUND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 5K-10K
FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH.
VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 302215
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
315 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HALLOWEEN EVENING
THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND
AND IT NOW APPEARS ENERGY WILL DIG A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
THE MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY.

OUR REGION WAS UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND OUR FOCUS IS NOW ON THE DEEP
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FORM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT A
LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 35
MPH...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AND NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED
FRIDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SIERRA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND IT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS REPLACED BY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 5 PM FRIDAY
THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
SHOT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. ALSO...THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO SYSTEM AND
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DRAG A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL
DOWN OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE IS QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONS MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THIS WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED
SUNDAY TO INDICATE THIS TREND AND WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS SETUP COULD FAVOR
AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
DEEPER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY NORTH WIND CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM BUT THEN A WARMING TREND SHOULD RETURN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 20 KTS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD BASES AS LOW
AS 7K-10K FEET AS WELL AS FEW SHRA IN AND AROUND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 5K-10K
FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH.
VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KREV 302158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
SIERRA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY EVENING, WITH ALL ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON,
WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEVADA FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR EARLY SEASON CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY.

OVERALL THE FORECAST REASONING HASN`T CHANGED. THE STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE TAHOE BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE JET WILL LEAD TO
A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD INTO RENO-CARSON AND
ALPINE-MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE BAND WILL PASS INTO
LYON, PERSHING, CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE MODELS TO WARM THE SYSTEM, WHICH
ISN`T OVERLY SURPRISING SINCE THERE IS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING
THE COLD FRONT. THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTIONS MAY ALLOW THE SNOW
LEVELS TO HANG UP NEAR 7000 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN OR
AT LEAST LESS SNOW STICKING TO PAVED SURFACES FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERALL SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT 7500-8500 FEET THEN LOWER TO
5000-6000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING, ABOUT 500 FEET HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ABOVE 7000 FEET ACCUMULATIONS HAVEN`T CHANGED WITH 8-14 INCHES
ALONG THE CREST. HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CARSON PASS TO MAMMOTH, WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL OCCUR. DETAILS IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST
WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT.

ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT A IMPRESSIVE RAIN
EVENT FOR WESTERN NEVADA STANDARDS. RAINFALL AMOUNT FRIDAY NIGHT
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW HIGH END TOTALS MAY
APPROACH 1 INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ABOVE
6000 FEET, WHERE A COUPLE INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE AROUND VIRGINIA
CITY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 395 BY 10 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE HEADING OUT TO CARSON CITY SATURDAY
MORNING MAY WANT TO CARRY AND UMBRELLA JUST IN CASE THE RAIN
LINGERS PAST 10 AM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WINDS MAY GET A BIT GUSTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A NEW PRECIPITATION BAND SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS AS THE
COLD CORE LIFTS ACROSS THE SIERRA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS
PROBABLY A COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND A DEFORMATION BAND ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GFS KEEPS THE BAND OVER LASSEN-
NORTHERN WASHOE, WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FROM SIERRA-
PLUMAS TO SOUTHERN LASSEN COUNTY. CERTAINLY A FEATURE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN/SNOW IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. BRONG


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ON SUNDAY, NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY NEAR 50 DEGREES
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SLIDER-TYPE SHORTWAVE MAY BE MOVING
SOUTH AND EXITING MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST MOVING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, SO ANYTHING
MORE THAN BRIEF SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES IS UNLIKELY. MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WITH MOST SCENARIOS KEEPING OUR REGION DRY, SO WE WILL NOT ADD ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK, DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL AS RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST SLOWLY BUILDS INLAND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER FLAT
EARLY IN THE WEEK KEEPING AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION, BUT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES ANY MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW FARTHER NORTH
OF THE OREGON BORDER. THEN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WITH DECREASING
CIRRUS COVERAGE ESPECIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTHWARD.

THE WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR FIRST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WHILE THE LOWER VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM DUE TO MODERATE INVERSIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL START IN THE 50S ON MONDAY, THEN
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES BY THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE HAS LIMITED SFC WINDS SO FAR
TODAY, BUT SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 22Z
NEAR THE SIERRA AND AFTER 00Z FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS RIDGE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
MAY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN CA-FAR WESTERN NV.

ARRIVAL OF TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE AVIATION IMPACTS.
FIRST WILL BE INCREASING WINDS, ALTHOUGH PEAK SFC GUSTS MAY ONLY
REACH THE 25-30 KT RANGE. STRONGER SOUTHWEST RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD
STILL PRODUCE SOME LEE SIDE TURBULENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

PRECIP WITH THIS STORM IS MOST LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING THRU SATURDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN THE SIERRA AS RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON RUNWAYS ABOVE
6000 FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VIS AS A BAND OF STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 302158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
SIERRA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY EVENING, WITH ALL ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON,
WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEVADA FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR EARLY SEASON CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY.

OVERALL THE FORECAST REASONING HASN`T CHANGED. THE STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE TAHOE BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE JET WILL LEAD TO
A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD INTO RENO-CARSON AND
ALPINE-MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE BAND WILL PASS INTO
LYON, PERSHING, CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE MODELS TO WARM THE SYSTEM, WHICH
ISN`T OVERLY SURPRISING SINCE THERE IS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING
THE COLD FRONT. THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTIONS MAY ALLOW THE SNOW
LEVELS TO HANG UP NEAR 7000 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN OR
AT LEAST LESS SNOW STICKING TO PAVED SURFACES FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERALL SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT 7500-8500 FEET THEN LOWER TO
5000-6000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING, ABOUT 500 FEET HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ABOVE 7000 FEET ACCUMULATIONS HAVEN`T CHANGED WITH 8-14 INCHES
ALONG THE CREST. HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CARSON PASS TO MAMMOTH, WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL OCCUR. DETAILS IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST
WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT.

ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT A IMPRESSIVE RAIN
EVENT FOR WESTERN NEVADA STANDARDS. RAINFALL AMOUNT FRIDAY NIGHT
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW HIGH END TOTALS MAY
APPROACH 1 INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ABOVE
6000 FEET, WHERE A COUPLE INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE AROUND VIRGINIA
CITY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 395 BY 10 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE HEADING OUT TO CARSON CITY SATURDAY
MORNING MAY WANT TO CARRY AND UMBRELLA JUST IN CASE THE RAIN
LINGERS PAST 10 AM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WINDS MAY GET A BIT GUSTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A NEW PRECIPITATION BAND SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS AS THE
COLD CORE LIFTS ACROSS THE SIERRA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS
PROBABLY A COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND A DEFORMATION BAND ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GFS KEEPS THE BAND OVER LASSEN-
NORTHERN WASHOE, WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FROM SIERRA-
PLUMAS TO SOUTHERN LASSEN COUNTY. CERTAINLY A FEATURE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN/SNOW IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. BRONG


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ON SUNDAY, NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY NEAR 50 DEGREES
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SLIDER-TYPE SHORTWAVE MAY BE MOVING
SOUTH AND EXITING MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST MOVING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, SO ANYTHING
MORE THAN BRIEF SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES IS UNLIKELY. MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WITH MOST SCENARIOS KEEPING OUR REGION DRY, SO WE WILL NOT ADD ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK, DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL AS RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST SLOWLY BUILDS INLAND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER FLAT
EARLY IN THE WEEK KEEPING AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION, BUT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES ANY MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW FARTHER NORTH
OF THE OREGON BORDER. THEN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WITH DECREASING
CIRRUS COVERAGE ESPECIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTHWARD.

THE WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR FIRST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WHILE THE LOWER VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM DUE TO MODERATE INVERSIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL START IN THE 50S ON MONDAY, THEN
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES BY THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE HAS LIMITED SFC WINDS SO FAR
TODAY, BUT SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 22Z
NEAR THE SIERRA AND AFTER 00Z FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS RIDGE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
MAY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN CA-FAR WESTERN NV.

ARRIVAL OF TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE AVIATION IMPACTS.
FIRST WILL BE INCREASING WINDS, ALTHOUGH PEAK SFC GUSTS MAY ONLY
REACH THE 25-30 KT RANGE. STRONGER SOUTHWEST RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD
STILL PRODUCE SOME LEE SIDE TURBULENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

PRECIP WITH THIS STORM IS MOST LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING THRU SATURDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN THE SIERRA AS RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON RUNWAYS ABOVE
6000 FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VIS AS A BAND OF STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 301711
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM WEATHER
THROUGH HALLOWEEN BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON IN USHERING IN
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS HALLOWEEN NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK CIRCULATION
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE BUT MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ON TAP TODAY
AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WELL OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DIGGING ENERGY A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS MAY INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A
LITTLE OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN NEVADA.
WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED
THIS FAR SOUTH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
227 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WE ENJOYED YET ANOTHER MILD DAY YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE WILL BE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE IS AROUND AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE RATHER PLENTIFUL AT TIMES. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 30N/125W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL SPREAD A DECENT SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN BY LATE THIS MORNING THAT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT TO DEPART. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FURTHER WARMING TODAY AND CROSS SECTIONS
KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN A SMALL LAYER AROUND 300 MB, SO HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TREND UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY FROM WHAT WE SAW ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK A LITTLE SLOWER AT BRINGING THE
FIRST NOTEWORTHY FALL STORM INTO OUR AREA. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AND MOVE ACROSS NEVADA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HALLOWEEN SHOULD STAY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS WITH CIRRUS PUSHING BACK ON IN AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME COOLING, HOWEVER, MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS WARMING UP A FEW MORE DEGREES
AND GIVEN THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING I HAVE KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF
ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDFIELDS BELOW 700 MB WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THAT LEVEL, WHICH WILL HELP TO CUT DOWN ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS IN MOST AREAS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. THUS GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
SHOULD BE IT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF CROSS BARRIER
FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY DOWNSLOPE WIND THREAT FOR THE OWENS VALLEY IN
THE EVENING OR NIGHT HOURS ON HALLOWEEN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS
PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MOISTURE TAP IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
STORM, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TO JUSTIFY LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. 700 MB TEMPS
OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF DROP TO -4C, WHICH STILL SUPPORTS SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET. SPILLOVER INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA LOOKS GOOD AND THE WINTER STORM WATCH HERE
STILL IS JUSTIFIED WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE CREST WHERE
TOTALS WILL EASILY EXCEED 6 INCHES. HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE
WARE OF THE SNOW, WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN A SHORT SPAN OF SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. PWATS JUST ABOVE 0.50 INCH
ARE SHOWN TO WORK INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT, AND ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS AS FAR
SOUTH AS BARSTOW, PAHRUMP AND KINGMAN. IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A QUICK RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON THE
WEST SIDE.

ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK
ON IN FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY, WHICH WILL END THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER MOJAVE DESERT ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, LINGERING
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL HOLD ON IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO JUSTIFY
KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT WE SEE
ON HALLOWEEN. FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE, THE GROWING SEASON WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

YESTERDAYS 12Z SUITE OF MODELS CHANGED THEIR TUNE INDICATING
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY. THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR
IDEA SO HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER
ARIZONA MONDAY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCURRING EAST OF
MOHAVE COUNTY. ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
JUST HOW FAST THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST THOSE DAYS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAIN
PUSH OF SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THOSE NORTH WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY CONFINED WITHIN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WHILE AWAY FROM THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR COOLEST SUNDAY THEN WARM EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS OVER 20 KTS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 7K-10K FEET AS
WELL AS FEW SHRA IN AND AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 5K-10K
FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH.
VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KREV 301016
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
316 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR/LOWER SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS/EC/GEM MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING
AND GENERAL FEATURES WITH THIS WEEKEND`S STORM SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM
WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH ITS 06Z RUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFF TO THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC SLOWLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY
WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LATE TONIGHT, WINDS INCREASE
MAINLY OVER THE RIDGES AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGE.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS INCREASE AREA-WIDE AS THE INCOMING LOW`S COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SPECIAL BUT THEY WILL BE GUSTY AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. REGARDING THE FRONT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RATHER PARALLEL
TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AWAITS
A FORWARD PUSH FROM UPPER ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH
THE FRONT SLOWING SOMEWHAT, I HAVE PUSHED BACK THE LOWERING OF
SNOW LEVELS AND, IN SOME AREAS, THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION.

STILL, THE FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN NEVADA AS A JET MAX NOSES INTO THE STATE AND KEEPS THE
FRONT INTACT. GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, I DID RAISE
PRECIPITATION NEAR MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE SIERRA
THERE AIDS OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR MOST OTHER
AREAS, FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SO WE
ARE ON TRACK WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SATURDAY`S PRECIPITATION, SNOW OR
ICE PELLETS COULD MIX IN WITH RAIN DOWN TO ALL BUT THE LOWEST
VALLEYS (UNDER 4000 FEET). HOWEVER, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PLENTY WARM TO PROHIBIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
SIERRA. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS ALL
AGREE ON THE TRANSITION TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOR MIDWEEK.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH THE EC
SLOWER TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. IT DROPS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE OR INSIDE SLIDER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THAT WAVE AND THUS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. THE EC ENSEMBLE SHOWS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH SO THIS
WAVE SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED. THAT SAID, ONLY LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY
AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. THE EC DOES SHOW PRECIP AND TEMPS A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN I HAVE. AT THIS POINT, THE EC IS ON THE WESTERN
EDGE SO WILL JUST TREND THAT WAY SINCE SLIDERS DO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
COME FURTHER WEST THAN ADVERTISED.

ONCE THAT WEAK WAVE GOES THROUGH, THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST AND THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY FOR A
CONSISTENT WARMING TREND. THE TREND WILL BE FASTER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHILE THE LOWER VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV ARE SLOWER TO
WARM DUE TO MODERATE INVERSIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. STILL,
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH WINDS ALOFT INCREASING TODAY WITH PEAK SFC GUSTS 20-25
KTS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

STORM STILL EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN THE SIERRA AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON RUNWAYS ABOVE 6000
FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW IN MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -RA FOR
WESTERN NV VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. MJD/WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KLKN 301000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LKN CWFA
THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE AXIS CUTS N/S THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA.
SATELLITE ALSO CLEARLY DEFINES A CIRCULATION OUT IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS POORLY
MODELED. A SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD FIELD RIDING OVER THE RIDGE IS
SPREADING INTO OREGON AT THIS HOUR. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW MORE DIGGING WITH THE TROUGH THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST AREAS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIES AND MOVES
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. SOME BREEZY CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 6500
AND 7500 FEET. THE COLD AIR WILL POOL FURTHER WEST IN NEVADA
HOWEVER A SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO IS BEING PLAYED OUT BY
THE NAM MODEL THAT IS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH THIS TIME-FRAME. THE
MAIN ISSUE COULD BE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL NEVADA
AND A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE DRYING DURING THE
DAY AND THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE TO MOVE THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SIMILAR SOUTHERLY EXTENSION THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION
AND THE SREF AND NAM MODELS ARE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS THE GREATEST IMPACT...DUE TO TIMING
DURING THE DAY...WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 600O FEET. HIGHWAY
OVERPASSES SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION OR SLICK CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...AND LAMOILLE WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
LOOMS UPSTREAM AND WILL BRING A STARK CHANGE OF WEATHER TO
NORTHEASTERN NV THIS WEEKEND. AT THE ONSET OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT AN H5 LOW OVER WILDHORSE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING TO THE BEEHIVE STATE. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT A
TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER. A SECONDARY H5 LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LKN
CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
NORTHERN NV. HOWEVER...THE SECOND LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY
AND IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND. EXPECT A SEVERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HOUR
PERIOD. GUSTS WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER TONOPAH AND ELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...POSES A SMALL
CONCERN. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME OF GUSTINESS TO WARRANT AN
EVENT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSE
TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING....WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457. EXPECT WINDS TO
AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE DANGER OF
FIRE SPREAD IN THE DORMANT FUELS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97




000
FXUS65 KVEF 300927
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
227 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM WEATHER
THROUGH HALLOWEEN BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON IN USHERING IN
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS HALLOWEEN NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WE ENJOYED YET ANOTHER MILD DAY YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE WILL BE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE IS AROUND AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE RATHER PLENTIFUL AT TIMES. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 30N/125W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL SPREAD A DECENT SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN BY LATE THIS MORNING THAT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT TO DEPART. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FURTHER WARMING TODAY AND CROSS SECTIONS
KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN A SMALL LAYER AROUND 300 MB, SO HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TREND UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY FROM WHAT WE SAW ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK A LITTLE SLOWER AT BRINGING THE
FIRST NOTEWORTHY FALL STORM INTO OUR AREA. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AND MOVE ACROSS NEVADA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HALLOWEEN SHOULD STAY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS WITH CIRRUS PUSHING BACK ON IN AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME COOLING, HOWEVER, MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS WARMING UP A FEW MORE DEGREES
AND GIVEN THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING I HAVE KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF
ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDFIELDS BELOW 700 MB WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THAT LEVEL, WHICH WILL HELP TO CUT DOWN ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS IN MOST AREAS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. THUS GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
SHOULD BE IT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF CROSS BARRIER
FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY DOWNSLOPE WIND THREAT FOR THE OWENS VALLEY IN
THE EVENING OR NIGHT HOURS ON HALLOWEEN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS
PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MOISTURE TAP IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
STORM, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TO JUSTIFY LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. 700 MB TEMPS
OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF DROP TO -4C, WHICH STILL SUPPORTS SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET. SPILLOVER INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA LOOKS GOOD AND THE WINTER STORM WATCH HERE
STILL IS JUSTIFIED WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE CREST WHERE
TOTALS WILL EASILY EXCEED 6 INCHES. HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE
WARE OF THE SNOW, WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN A SHORT SPAN OF SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. PWATS JUST ABOVE 0.50 INCH
ARE SHOWN TO WORK INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT, AND ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS AS FAR
SOUTH AS BARSTOW, PAHRUMP AND KINGMAN. IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A QUICK RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON THE
WEST SIDE.

ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK
ON IN FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY, WHICH WILL END THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER MOJAVE DESERT ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, LINGERING
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL HOLD ON IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO JUSTIFY
KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT WE SEE
ON HALLOWEEN. FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE, THE GROWING SEASON WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

YESTERDAYS 12Z SUITE OF MODELS CHANGED THEIR TUNE INDICATING
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY. THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR
IDEA SO HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER
ARIZONA MONDAY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCURRING EAST OF
MOHAVE COUNTY. ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
JUST HOW FAST THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST THOSE DAYS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAIN
PUSH OF SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THOSE NORTH WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY CONFINED WITHIN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WHILE AWAY FROM THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR COOLEST SUNDAY THEN WARM EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS OVER 20 KTS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 7K-10K FEET AS
WELL AS FEW SHRA IN AND AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD BASES AS LOW AS 5K-10K
FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH.
VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 300335
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
835 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A WARM FINISH TO OCTOBER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...BUT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER.
&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR 26N/128W MOVING NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS
PUSHING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TOWARD THE SOCAL COAST AND THIS SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES TOWARD THE
MOJAVE DESERT BY DAYBREAK. THE LATEST MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT AMOUNT OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY IN THE 500-250 MB LAYER. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY, I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST CWFA AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE CIRRUS MAY GET OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW EVENING AND THUS GIVE US A BREAK
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE CIRRUS SPILLS BACK ON IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR STORM.

BY CONTRAST, CIRRUS WAS NOT AS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA
THIS EVENING SO SKY COVER WAS LOWERED HERE FOR TONIGHT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES AREAWIDE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE SLUG OF HIGH CLOUDS
NEARING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AND ANOTHER ENCROACHING ON
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE OBS SHOWED
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND ALSO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. ASIDE FROM
PERSISTENT NORTH BREEZES AT BULLHEAD CITY...WINDS WERE LIGHT. STILL
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNSETTLED FALL WEATHER IS QUICKLY APPROACHING AS A LARGE PACIFIC
TROUGH CRASHES INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. STILL
ANTICIPATING WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS MAY BE STRONG DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS THE SIERRA
AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER DESERTS AS WELL...POTENTIALLY JUSTIFYING
WIND ADVISORIES DOWN THE ROAD...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS LOOK
UNFAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OUT OF CALIFORNIA...SHOVING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SIERRA CREST. WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 6000 FEET BY
SATURDAY MORNING...PARTS OF THE SIERRA CREST STAND THE CHANCE TO GET
A QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 7K FEET. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY I
POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7K FT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MODEST BY OUR WINTER STORM CRITERIA...BEING THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE
STORM COULD BE HIGHER IMPACT FOR TRAVELERS AND CAMPERS IN THE AREA.

AS THE COLD FRONT DRAGS EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN STAND A CHANCE TO PICK UP SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
MOJAVE DESERT AREAS WEST OF LAS VEGAS. IN VEGAS ITSELF...STILL LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS WITH HIGHS
DROPPING DRAMATICALLY AND REMAINING COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE FINAL NOTE...THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE NOW PICKING UP ON SOME
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION YET AS THIS IS A
FAIRLY NEW TREND BUT BUMPED POPS INTO SLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS/ EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOWER
CLOUDS /POSSIBLY BELOW 080/ AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
THE TERMINAL SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER INYO AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM ESMERALDA COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO
MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF IT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES LINGERING
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...MORGAN/OUTLER

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