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000
FXUS65 KVEF 211640
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE TOWARD
ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. LINGERING
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO IMMEDIATE
CHANGES ARE PLANNED. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...AIDED BY ENERGY EJECTING INLAND FROM THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING NEAR SAN DIEGO. THE COMPACT CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LAKE HAVASU AND YUMA BY THIS
EVENING...KEEPING THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM MUCH OF TODAY. GOOD SURFACE HEATING
WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHT TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE A LITTLE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER
AREAS NORTH OF LAKE HAVASU BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL OVER
SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
256 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM
LAS VEGAS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GRAND CANYON. THE AREA IS SHIFTING
NORTH AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO THAT HAS
PULLED MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NORTHWARD
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOHAVE COUNTY. AS OF 2 AM
PDT...LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N/121.9 OR 805 MILES WSW OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TODAY. FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DIFFLUENCE REGION
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES
WEST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS WESTERN ARIZONA BUT KEPT
IN A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY LINCOLN, CLARK AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST
ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON STATE. ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. MAINTAINED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY. DID
INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WITH TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. OUR BELOW
NORMAL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN INTERESTING PATTERN IS SHOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO FULL BLAST WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
ECMWF. AT THIS POINT, SINCE THAT MODEL IS SO OUT THERE IN LEFT
FIELD, I HAVE GIVEN IT ONLY LIMITED WEIGHT WITH THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OF DEVIATING
FROM THE NORM AND BEING THE FIRST TO PICK UP THINGS, SO THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SEE WHAT TREND ARE SHOWN IN THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST BASED ON THAT.

FOR SUNDAY, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SHOWN TO
OUR NORTH, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO SWOOP
ON DOWN. OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE A IN MORE A QUASI-WESTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DROPS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO NORCAL
AND FORMS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FLOATS EAST EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEVADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOW WOULD KEEP US MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRAW NORTHWARD
MOISTURE THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM A
FEW OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS WHAT WE SAW ON
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS, GEM AND DGEX WHICH BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THIS TROUGH COULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO CLIP NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AT
LEAST INCREASED CLOUDS AND THIS WAS PLACED IN THERE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE I LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT DID GO
AHEAD AND TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
PLACES THEM NEAR TO A HAIR BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT OF LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY OCTOBER VERSUS LATE
AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OR CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO
NEARBY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 211640
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE TOWARD
ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. LINGERING
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO IMMEDIATE
CHANGES ARE PLANNED. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...AIDED BY ENERGY EJECTING INLAND FROM THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING NEAR SAN DIEGO. THE COMPACT CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LAKE HAVASU AND YUMA BY THIS
EVENING...KEEPING THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM MUCH OF TODAY. GOOD SURFACE HEATING
WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHT TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE A LITTLE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER
AREAS NORTH OF LAKE HAVASU BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL OVER
SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
256 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM
LAS VEGAS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GRAND CANYON. THE AREA IS SHIFTING
NORTH AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO THAT HAS
PULLED MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NORTHWARD
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOHAVE COUNTY. AS OF 2 AM
PDT...LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N/121.9 OR 805 MILES WSW OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TODAY. FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DIFFLUENCE REGION
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES
WEST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS WESTERN ARIZONA BUT KEPT
IN A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY LINCOLN, CLARK AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST
ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON STATE. ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. MAINTAINED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY. DID
INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WITH TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. OUR BELOW
NORMAL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN INTERESTING PATTERN IS SHOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO FULL BLAST WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
ECMWF. AT THIS POINT, SINCE THAT MODEL IS SO OUT THERE IN LEFT
FIELD, I HAVE GIVEN IT ONLY LIMITED WEIGHT WITH THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OF DEVIATING
FROM THE NORM AND BEING THE FIRST TO PICK UP THINGS, SO THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SEE WHAT TREND ARE SHOWN IN THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST BASED ON THAT.

FOR SUNDAY, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SHOWN TO
OUR NORTH, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO SWOOP
ON DOWN. OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE A IN MORE A QUASI-WESTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DROPS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO NORCAL
AND FORMS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FLOATS EAST EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEVADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOW WOULD KEEP US MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRAW NORTHWARD
MOISTURE THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM A
FEW OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS WHAT WE SAW ON
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS, GEM AND DGEX WHICH BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THIS TROUGH COULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO CLIP NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AT
LEAST INCREASED CLOUDS AND THIS WAS PLACED IN THERE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE I LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT DID GO
AHEAD AND TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
PLACES THEM NEAR TO A HAIR BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT OF LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY OCTOBER VERSUS LATE
AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OR CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO
NEARBY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 211010
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING
INCREASING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER
70S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN IMPACT
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LOCALLY WILL BE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA
AND FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS). STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE LOCATED ROUGHLY NORTH OF HWY 50 WITH PEAK GUSTS MAINLY
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WITH ABOUT 30 MPH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ACROSS AREA LAKES WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES A GOOD POSSIBILITY. DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FRIDAY OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS AND DESERT AREAS INCLUDING THE BLACK
ROCK DESERT.

THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL FORCE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S
ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE FORECAST BUT ARE MORE SIMILAR TOWARD DAY 7.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST BY MONDAY. OPERATIONAL
GFS AND GEM ARE STARTING TO BUILD A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY BUT ECMWF IS DIGGING A LOW INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING IT OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE REJECTED OUT OF HAND AS IT IS AN OUTLIER...
BUT A FEW OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION. WITH
A LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REJECT THIS
SOLUTION AND WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT AND BUMP UP POPS...BUT STILL
BELOW 10 PERCENT. RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THE ECMWF FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF THIS LOW WOULD HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON
POPS AND TEMPS WITH EC COOLER AND WETTER. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE TEMPS
LARGELY UNCHANGED AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY LOW.
OVERALL...WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL WEST WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LEE SIDE TERMINALS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 20-21 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW STARTS TO DROP
TOWARD THE REGION. COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS IN SOME AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES NEAR THE
SFC IN AREAS EAST OF PRIMARY DUST SOURCES. 20
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT
PUSHES A DRY SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE IS A DRY SLOT
ALOFT SHOWING UP AS WELL. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN SURFACE RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN MANY VALLEYS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WHERE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FUELS HAVE HAD
TIME TO DRY FROM PREVIOUS RAINS OF TWO WEEKS AGO AS WELL. HAVE LEFT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS FOR UPGRADE PURPOSES.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST BUT RH VALUES ARE NOT LIKELY TO RECOVER VERY QUICKLY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ270-278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 211010
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING
INCREASING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER
70S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN IMPACT
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LOCALLY WILL BE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA
AND FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS). STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE LOCATED ROUGHLY NORTH OF HWY 50 WITH PEAK GUSTS MAINLY
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WITH ABOUT 30 MPH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ACROSS AREA LAKES WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES A GOOD POSSIBILITY. DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FRIDAY OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS AND DESERT AREAS INCLUDING THE BLACK
ROCK DESERT.

THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL FORCE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S
ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE FORECAST BUT ARE MORE SIMILAR TOWARD DAY 7.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST BY MONDAY. OPERATIONAL
GFS AND GEM ARE STARTING TO BUILD A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY BUT ECMWF IS DIGGING A LOW INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING IT OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE REJECTED OUT OF HAND AS IT IS AN OUTLIER...
BUT A FEW OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION. WITH
A LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REJECT THIS
SOLUTION AND WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT AND BUMP UP POPS...BUT STILL
BELOW 10 PERCENT. RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THE ECMWF FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF THIS LOW WOULD HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON
POPS AND TEMPS WITH EC COOLER AND WETTER. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE TEMPS
LARGELY UNCHANGED AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY LOW.
OVERALL...WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL WEST WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LEE SIDE TERMINALS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 20-21 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW STARTS TO DROP
TOWARD THE REGION. COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS IN SOME AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES NEAR THE
SFC IN AREAS EAST OF PRIMARY DUST SOURCES. 20
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT
PUSHES A DRY SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE IS A DRY SLOT
ALOFT SHOWING UP AS WELL. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN SURFACE RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN MANY VALLEYS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WHERE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FUELS HAVE HAD
TIME TO DRY FROM PREVIOUS RAINS OF TWO WEEKS AGO AS WELL. HAVE LEFT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS FOR UPGRADE PURPOSES.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST BUT RH VALUES ARE NOT LIKELY TO RECOVER VERY QUICKLY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ270-278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 210957
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE TOWARD
ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. LINGERING
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM
LAS VEGAS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GRAND CANYON. THE AREA IS SHIFTING
NORTH AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO THAT HAS
PULLED MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NORTHWARD
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOHAVE COUNTY. AS OF 2 AM
PDT...LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N/121.9 OR 805 MILES WSW OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TODAY. FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DIFFLUENCE REGION
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES
WEST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS WESTERN ARIZONA BUT KEPT
IN A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY LINCOLN, CLARK AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST
ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON STATE. ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. MAINTAINED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY. DID
INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WITH TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. OUR BELOW
NORMAL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN INTERESTING PATTERN IS SHOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO FULL BLAST WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
ECMWF. AT THIS POINT, SINCE THAT MODEL IS SO OUT THERE IN LEFT
FIELD, I HAVE GIVEN IT ONLY LIMITED WEIGHT WITH THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OF DEVIATING
FROM THE NORM AND BEING THE FIRST TO PICK UP THINGS, SO THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SEE WHAT TREND ARE SHOWN IN THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST BASED ON THAT.

FOR SUNDAY, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SHOWN TO
OUR NORTH, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO SWOOP
ON DOWN. OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE A IN MORE A QUASI-WESTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DROPS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO NORCAL
AND FORMS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FLOATS EAST EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEVADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOW WOULD KEEP US MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRAW NORTHWARD
MOISTURE THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM A
FEW OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS WHAT WE SAW ON
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS, GEM AND DGEX WHICH BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THIS TROUGH COULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO CLIP NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AT
LEAST INCREASED CLOUDS AND THIS WAS PLACED IN THERE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE I LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT DID GO
AHEAD AND TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
PLACES THEM NEAR TO A HAIR BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT OF LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY OCTOBER VERSUS LATE
AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210957
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE TOWARD
ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. LINGERING
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM
LAS VEGAS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GRAND CANYON. THE AREA IS SHIFTING
NORTH AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO THAT HAS
PULLED MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NORTHWARD
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOHAVE COUNTY. AS OF 2 AM
PDT...LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N/121.9 OR 805 MILES WSW OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TODAY. FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DIFFLUENCE REGION
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES
WEST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS WESTERN ARIZONA BUT KEPT
IN A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY LINCOLN, CLARK AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST
ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON STATE. ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. MAINTAINED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY. DID
INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WITH TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. OUR BELOW
NORMAL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN INTERESTING PATTERN IS SHOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO FULL BLAST WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
ECMWF. AT THIS POINT, SINCE THAT MODEL IS SO OUT THERE IN LEFT
FIELD, I HAVE GIVEN IT ONLY LIMITED WEIGHT WITH THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OF DEVIATING
FROM THE NORM AND BEING THE FIRST TO PICK UP THINGS, SO THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SEE WHAT TREND ARE SHOWN IN THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST BASED ON THAT.

FOR SUNDAY, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SHOWN TO
OUR NORTH, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO SWOOP
ON DOWN. OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE A IN MORE A QUASI-WESTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DROPS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO NORCAL
AND FORMS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FLOATS EAST EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEVADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOW WOULD KEEP US MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRAW NORTHWARD
MOISTURE THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM A
FEW OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS WHAT WE SAW ON
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS, GEM AND DGEX WHICH BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THIS TROUGH COULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO CLIP NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AT
LEAST INCREASED CLOUDS AND THIS WAS PLACED IN THERE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE I LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT DID GO
AHEAD AND TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
PLACES THEM NEAR TO A HAIR BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT OF LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY OCTOBER VERSUS LATE
AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210957
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE TOWARD
ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. LINGERING
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM
LAS VEGAS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GRAND CANYON. THE AREA IS SHIFTING
NORTH AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO THAT HAS
PULLED MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NORTHWARD
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOHAVE COUNTY. AS OF 2 AM
PDT...LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N/121.9 OR 805 MILES WSW OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TODAY. FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DIFFLUENCE REGION
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES
WEST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS WESTERN ARIZONA BUT KEPT
IN A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY LINCOLN, CLARK AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST
ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON STATE. ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. MAINTAINED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY. DID
INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WITH TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. OUR BELOW
NORMAL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN INTERESTING PATTERN IS SHOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO FULL BLAST WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
ECMWF. AT THIS POINT, SINCE THAT MODEL IS SO OUT THERE IN LEFT
FIELD, I HAVE GIVEN IT ONLY LIMITED WEIGHT WITH THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OF DEVIATING
FROM THE NORM AND BEING THE FIRST TO PICK UP THINGS, SO THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SEE WHAT TREND ARE SHOWN IN THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST BASED ON THAT.

FOR SUNDAY, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SHOWN TO
OUR NORTH, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO SWOOP
ON DOWN. OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE A IN MORE A QUASI-WESTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DROPS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO NORCAL
AND FORMS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FLOATS EAST EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEVADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOW WOULD KEEP US MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRAW NORTHWARD
MOISTURE THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM A
FEW OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS WHAT WE SAW ON
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS, GEM AND DGEX WHICH BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THIS TROUGH COULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO CLIP NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AT
LEAST INCREASED CLOUDS AND THIS WAS PLACED IN THERE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE I LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT DID GO
AHEAD AND TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
PLACES THEM NEAR TO A HAIR BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT OF LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY OCTOBER VERSUS LATE
AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210957
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE TOWARD
ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. LINGERING
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM
LAS VEGAS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GRAND CANYON. THE AREA IS SHIFTING
NORTH AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO THAT HAS
PULLED MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NORTHWARD
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOHAVE COUNTY. AS OF 2 AM
PDT...LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N/121.9 OR 805 MILES WSW OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TODAY. FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DIFFLUENCE REGION
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES
WEST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS WESTERN ARIZONA BUT KEPT
IN A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY LINCOLN, CLARK AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST
ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON STATE. ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. MAINTAINED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY. DID
INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WITH TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. OUR BELOW
NORMAL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN INTERESTING PATTERN IS SHOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO FULL BLAST WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
ECMWF. AT THIS POINT, SINCE THAT MODEL IS SO OUT THERE IN LEFT
FIELD, I HAVE GIVEN IT ONLY LIMITED WEIGHT WITH THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OF DEVIATING
FROM THE NORM AND BEING THE FIRST TO PICK UP THINGS, SO THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SEE WHAT TREND ARE SHOWN IN THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST BASED ON THAT.

FOR SUNDAY, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SHOWN TO
OUR NORTH, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO SWOOP
ON DOWN. OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE A IN MORE A QUASI-WESTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DROPS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO NORCAL
AND FORMS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FLOATS EAST EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEVADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOW WOULD KEEP US MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRAW NORTHWARD
MOISTURE THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM A
FEW OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS WHAT WE SAW ON
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS, GEM AND DGEX WHICH BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THIS TROUGH COULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO CLIP NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AT
LEAST INCREASED CLOUDS AND THIS WAS PLACED IN THERE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE I LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT DID GO
AHEAD AND TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
PLACES THEM NEAR TO A HAIR BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT OF LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY OCTOBER VERSUS LATE
AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KLKN 210927
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
227 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE
HORIZON...THERE IS A RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .62 WHICH IS 111 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. A BAND OF ENHANCED PWS SPANS FROM WENDOVER TO WINNEMUCCA.
THE NAM 12 CONTINUES TO PING INTO LOCAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF
I-80. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER PORTIONS OF THE LKN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVER NORTHERN NV WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH MODERATE LI`S
AND AN INVERTED V ON THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELKO...AND A WINDEX OF
44. TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SILVER
STATE...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO DECREASE WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE...AS
THE JET CORE BARRELS INTO THE REGION. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER CENTRAL U.S. WHICH PRODUCES
A DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING MODELS DEVIATE. EC DIGGING TROF INTO
NORTHERN CA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM PUSH THE TROF AXIS INTO EASTERN NV.
THEN BY TUESDAY EC HAS LARGE TROF OVER THE CWA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE IN CONTRAST GFS AND GEM HAVE
STRONG DRY RIDGE. SEEMS LIKE MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH CYCLONE
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS IT SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS WILL KEEP CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM THE WEST INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY AND KEKO IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH RHS
PREDOMINATELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE PRODUCTS
FOR THE FW COMMUNITY. WENT WITH AN LAL OF 2 FOR TODAY AND AN LAL OF
3 FOR FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. ONCE THE RIDGE FINALLY DOES MOVE
INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...EXPECTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

97/87/87/97





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210927
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
227 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE
HORIZON...THERE IS A RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .62 WHICH IS 111 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. A BAND OF ENHANCED PWS SPANS FROM WENDOVER TO WINNEMUCCA.
THE NAM 12 CONTINUES TO PING INTO LOCAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF
I-80. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER PORTIONS OF THE LKN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVER NORTHERN NV WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH MODERATE LI`S
AND AN INVERTED V ON THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELKO...AND A WINDEX OF
44. TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SILVER
STATE...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO DECREASE WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE...AS
THE JET CORE BARRELS INTO THE REGION. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER CENTRAL U.S. WHICH PRODUCES
A DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING MODELS DEVIATE. EC DIGGING TROF INTO
NORTHERN CA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM PUSH THE TROF AXIS INTO EASTERN NV.
THEN BY TUESDAY EC HAS LARGE TROF OVER THE CWA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE IN CONTRAST GFS AND GEM HAVE
STRONG DRY RIDGE. SEEMS LIKE MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH CYCLONE
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS IT SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS WILL KEEP CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM THE WEST INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY AND KEKO IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH RHS
PREDOMINATELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE PRODUCTS
FOR THE FW COMMUNITY. WENT WITH AN LAL OF 2 FOR TODAY AND AN LAL OF
3 FOR FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. ONCE THE RIDGE FINALLY DOES MOVE
INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...EXPECTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

97/87/87/97





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210927
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
227 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE
HORIZON...THERE IS A RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .62 WHICH IS 111 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. A BAND OF ENHANCED PWS SPANS FROM WENDOVER TO WINNEMUCCA.
THE NAM 12 CONTINUES TO PING INTO LOCAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF
I-80. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER PORTIONS OF THE LKN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVER NORTHERN NV WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH MODERATE LI`S
AND AN INVERTED V ON THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELKO...AND A WINDEX OF
44. TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SILVER
STATE...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO DECREASE WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE...AS
THE JET CORE BARRELS INTO THE REGION. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER CENTRAL U.S. WHICH PRODUCES
A DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING MODELS DEVIATE. EC DIGGING TROF INTO
NORTHERN CA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM PUSH THE TROF AXIS INTO EASTERN NV.
THEN BY TUESDAY EC HAS LARGE TROF OVER THE CWA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE IN CONTRAST GFS AND GEM HAVE
STRONG DRY RIDGE. SEEMS LIKE MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH CYCLONE
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS IT SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS WILL KEEP CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM THE WEST INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY AND KEKO IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH RHS
PREDOMINATELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE PRODUCTS
FOR THE FW COMMUNITY. WENT WITH AN LAL OF 2 FOR TODAY AND AN LAL OF
3 FOR FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. ONCE THE RIDGE FINALLY DOES MOVE
INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...EXPECTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

97/87/87/97





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210927
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
227 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE
HORIZON...THERE IS A RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .62 WHICH IS 111 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. A BAND OF ENHANCED PWS SPANS FROM WENDOVER TO WINNEMUCCA.
THE NAM 12 CONTINUES TO PING INTO LOCAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF
I-80. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER PORTIONS OF THE LKN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVER NORTHERN NV WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH MODERATE LI`S
AND AN INVERTED V ON THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELKO...AND A WINDEX OF
44. TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SILVER
STATE...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO DECREASE WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE...AS
THE JET CORE BARRELS INTO THE REGION. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER CENTRAL U.S. WHICH PRODUCES
A DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING MODELS DEVIATE. EC DIGGING TROF INTO
NORTHERN CA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM PUSH THE TROF AXIS INTO EASTERN NV.
THEN BY TUESDAY EC HAS LARGE TROF OVER THE CWA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE IN CONTRAST GFS AND GEM HAVE
STRONG DRY RIDGE. SEEMS LIKE MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH CYCLONE
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS IT SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS WILL KEEP CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM THE WEST INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY AND KEKO IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH RHS
PREDOMINATELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE PRODUCTS
FOR THE FW COMMUNITY. WENT WITH AN LAL OF 2 FOR TODAY AND AN LAL OF
3 FOR FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. ONCE THE RIDGE FINALLY DOES MOVE
INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...EXPECTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

97/87/87/97





000
FXUS65 KVEF 210359
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
859 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
TOWARD ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THURSDAY. LINGERING STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM AREAL COVERAGE HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. WE
ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY AND A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK CELLS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WE CAN SEE VIA
SATELLITE DATA THAT THE SOCAL UPPER LOW IS NOW TAPPING INTO SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. STILL NOT SEEING A
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TOMORROW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
350 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WAS LIKELY AIDING PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. EVEN
THOUGH DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S...CONVECTION WAS FIRING
QUITE EASILY ALONG FAIRLY DISCRETE LINES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT PROBABLY NOT
END ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG
THE COAST. AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CLARK
COUNTY SOUTHWARD WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WILL GET
WRAPPED UP INTO THE SYSTEM AND MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.
THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A DEEP INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN AROUND 1.0-1.25
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. ALSO...HIGH RES
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE EXCESSIVE QPF VALUES AND COVERAGE SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST. THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY
WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE
MOISTURE OUT OF A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ADDED DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY IN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.

WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY DRIER AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE CWA AND
WILL CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA INCLUDING THE IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO STORMS THEN SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BUT WOULD
BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MOHAVE DESERT REGION THURSDAY FROM CLARK COUNTY NEVADA SOUTHWARD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 210359
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
859 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
TOWARD ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THURSDAY. LINGERING STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM AREAL COVERAGE HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. WE
ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY AND A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK CELLS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WE CAN SEE VIA
SATELLITE DATA THAT THE SOCAL UPPER LOW IS NOW TAPPING INTO SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. STILL NOT SEEING A
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TOMORROW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
350 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WAS LIKELY AIDING PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. EVEN
THOUGH DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S...CONVECTION WAS FIRING
QUITE EASILY ALONG FAIRLY DISCRETE LINES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT PROBABLY NOT
END ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG
THE COAST. AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CLARK
COUNTY SOUTHWARD WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WILL GET
WRAPPED UP INTO THE SYSTEM AND MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.
THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A DEEP INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN AROUND 1.0-1.25
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. ALSO...HIGH RES
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE EXCESSIVE QPF VALUES AND COVERAGE SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST. THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY
WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE
MOISTURE OUT OF A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ADDED DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY IN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.

WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY DRIER AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE CWA AND
WILL CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA INCLUDING THE IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO STORMS THEN SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BUT WOULD
BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MOHAVE DESERT REGION THURSDAY FROM CLARK COUNTY NEVADA SOUTHWARD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KLKN 210144
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
644 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEPLETED ACROSS NEVADA THIS
EVENING, AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDS, SOME
VIRGA, AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TONIGHT TO TAKE OUT THUNDER, AND TO REDUCE POP GRIDS.
A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 245 PM /

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS HOWEVER SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE/EASTERN NYE
COUNTIES WHERE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGER. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AND
EASTERN WHITE PINE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS WILL
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN NEVADA COMBINES WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY OVER GENERALLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IDAHO...WITH
A COLD FRONT POISED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. KEPT POPS CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRY OUT SUNDAY
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS CHECKING IN THE
UPPER 70S. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CROP UP ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH TRIES TO DIG SOUTH. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SO BROAD-BRUSHED POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AFTER SUNSET. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A 90KT JET ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS HOWEVER.
AT THIS TIME ZONE 454 LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20% RANGE. COOLER ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
CENTERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY 470 AND EASTERN 455. WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONE MORE SHOT AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210144
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
644 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEPLETED ACROSS NEVADA THIS
EVENING, AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDS, SOME
VIRGA, AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TONIGHT TO TAKE OUT THUNDER, AND TO REDUCE POP GRIDS.
A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 245 PM /

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS HOWEVER SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE/EASTERN NYE
COUNTIES WHERE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGER. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AND
EASTERN WHITE PINE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS WILL
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN NEVADA COMBINES WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY OVER GENERALLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IDAHO...WITH
A COLD FRONT POISED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. KEPT POPS CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRY OUT SUNDAY
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS CHECKING IN THE
UPPER 70S. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CROP UP ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH TRIES TO DIG SOUTH. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SO BROAD-BRUSHED POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AFTER SUNSET. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A 90KT JET ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS HOWEVER.
AT THIS TIME ZONE 454 LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20% RANGE. COOLER ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
CENTERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY 470 AND EASTERN 455. WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONE MORE SHOT AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KVEF 202250
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
350 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
TOWARD ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THURSDAY. LINGERING STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WAS LIKELY AIDING PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. EVEN
THOUGH DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S...CONVECTION WAS FIRING
QUITE EASILY ALONG FAIRLY DISCRETE LINES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT PROBABLY NOT
END ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG
THE COAST. AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CLARK
COUNTY SOUTHWARD WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WILL GET
WRAPPED UP INTO THE SYSTEM AND MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.
THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A DEEP INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN AROUND 1.0-1.25
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. ALSO...HIGH RES
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE EXCESSIVE QPF VALUES AND COVERAGE SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST. THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY
WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE
MOISTURE OUT OF A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ADDED DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY IN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.

WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY DRIER AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE CWA AND
WILL CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA INCLUDING THE IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO STORMS THEN SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BUT WOULD
BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MOHAVE DESERT REGION THURSDAY FROM CLARK COUNTY NEVADA SOUTHWARD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 202250
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
350 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
TOWARD ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THURSDAY. LINGERING STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WAS LIKELY AIDING PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. EVEN
THOUGH DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S...CONVECTION WAS FIRING
QUITE EASILY ALONG FAIRLY DISCRETE LINES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT PROBABLY NOT
END ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG
THE COAST. AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CLARK
COUNTY SOUTHWARD WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WILL GET
WRAPPED UP INTO THE SYSTEM AND MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.
THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A DEEP INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN AROUND 1.0-1.25
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. ALSO...HIGH RES
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE EXCESSIVE QPF VALUES AND COVERAGE SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST. THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY
WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE
MOISTURE OUT OF A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ADDED DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY IN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.

WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY DRIER AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE CWA AND
WILL CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA INCLUDING THE IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO STORMS THEN SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BUT WOULD
BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MOHAVE DESERT REGION THURSDAY FROM CLARK COUNTY NEVADA SOUTHWARD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KLKN 202145
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
245 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS HOWEVER SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE/EASTERN NYE
COUNTIES WHERE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGER. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AND
EASTERN WHITE PINE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS WILL
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN NEVADA COMBINES WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY OVER GENERALLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IDAHO...WITH
A COLD FRONT POISED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. KEPT POPS CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRY OUT SUNDAY
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS CHECKING IN THE
UPPER 70S. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CROP UP ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH TRIES TO DIG SOUTH. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SO BROAD-BRUSHED POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AFTER SUNSET. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A 90KT JET ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS HOWEVER.
AT THIS TIME ZONE 454 LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20% RANGE. COOLER ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
CENTERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY 470 AND EASTERN 455. WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONE MORE SHOT AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/86/86/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 202145
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
245 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS HOWEVER SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE/EASTERN NYE
COUNTIES WHERE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGER. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AND
EASTERN WHITE PINE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS WILL
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN NEVADA COMBINES WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY OVER GENERALLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IDAHO...WITH
A COLD FRONT POISED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. KEPT POPS CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRY OUT SUNDAY
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS CHECKING IN THE
UPPER 70S. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CROP UP ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH TRIES TO DIG SOUTH. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SO BROAD-BRUSHED POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AFTER SUNSET. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A 90KT JET ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS HOWEVER.
AT THIS TIME ZONE 454 LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20% RANGE. COOLER ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
CENTERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY 470 AND EASTERN 455. WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONE MORE SHOT AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/86/86/96





000
FXUS65 KREV 202116
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING WINDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM FROM MONITOR/EBBETTS PASS TO TIOGA PASS. A
FEW CELLS ARE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER DOUGLAS, LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER THERE IS A STRONG CAP JUST ABOVE 20000
FEET, WHICH WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL AND MAY GENERATE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH. ALSO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE TO LOVELOCK, WHERE A WAVE IS PASSING ALONG THE
NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER.

NEXT FORECAST ISSUE IS THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG
140W. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY, BUT FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE DAY WITH HIGHER WINDS AS A JET SEGMENT PASSES OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. PEAK WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF
30-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS BRINGS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURE WILL COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE LOW DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST NEVADA. BY FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL DROP
OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 70S FOR THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE NORTH WINDS SHOULDN`T BE
STRONG, BUT A FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY OF COOLER AIR TRANSITIONS SOUTHWARD. A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WEST SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SUNNY AFTERNOON
EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
NORTHERLY JET DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA WHILE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE JET FARTHER EAST. THE GFS FORECAST SHOWS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT RANGE
AND THUS STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NV. FOR NOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT, LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT EXPECTED THIS EVENING
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND SIERRA TERMINALS. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN
THREATS NARY ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIGHTNING, SFC WND GUSTS TO 45
KTS AND SMALL HAIL. JCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY BACKED BY A 90 MPH JET STREAM. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING STRONGEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM HIGHWAY 50 NORTH. THESE MID LEVEL WINDS COINCIDE
WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT BRINGING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT MOVING IN BEHIND
THE LOW AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
BRINGING 10 TO 15 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO THE DESERTS
OF EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE SIERRA FRONT, NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AND THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE.

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY BEFORE BREEZY WEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ270-278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 202116
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING WINDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM FROM MONITOR/EBBETTS PASS TO TIOGA PASS. A
FEW CELLS ARE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER DOUGLAS, LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER THERE IS A STRONG CAP JUST ABOVE 20000
FEET, WHICH WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL AND MAY GENERATE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH. ALSO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE TO LOVELOCK, WHERE A WAVE IS PASSING ALONG THE
NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER.

NEXT FORECAST ISSUE IS THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG
140W. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY, BUT FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE DAY WITH HIGHER WINDS AS A JET SEGMENT PASSES OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. PEAK WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF
30-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS BRINGS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURE WILL COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE LOW DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST NEVADA. BY FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL DROP
OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 70S FOR THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE NORTH WINDS SHOULDN`T BE
STRONG, BUT A FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY OF COOLER AIR TRANSITIONS SOUTHWARD. A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WEST SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SUNNY AFTERNOON
EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
NORTHERLY JET DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA WHILE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE JET FARTHER EAST. THE GFS FORECAST SHOWS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT RANGE
AND THUS STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NV. FOR NOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT, LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT EXPECTED THIS EVENING
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND SIERRA TERMINALS. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN
THREATS NARY ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIGHTNING, SFC WND GUSTS TO 45
KTS AND SMALL HAIL. JCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY BACKED BY A 90 MPH JET STREAM. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING STRONGEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM HIGHWAY 50 NORTH. THESE MID LEVEL WINDS COINCIDE
WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT BRINGING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT MOVING IN BEHIND
THE LOW AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
BRINGING 10 TO 15 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO THE DESERTS
OF EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE SIERRA FRONT, NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AND THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE.

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY BEFORE BREEZY WEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ270-278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KVEF 201706
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1005 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND TO THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY. THE 12Z
LAS SOUNDING SHOWED CONDITIONS WERE QUITE UNSTABLE BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
FAIRLY SPARSE CONVECTION TODAY BUT STILL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL BUT
ESMERALDA AND WEST CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AND NORTHERN DEATH VALLEY.
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION
309 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RADAR MUCH QUIETER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WE ARE MONITORING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH EVER SO OFTEN ONE CELL WILL GENERATE A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES.

CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
INTEREST TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOSED LOW
WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF SURFACE HEATING A STRENGTHENING JETSTREAK EAST OF THE LOW
CUTTING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT. FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA, ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
OCCUR IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CLOSED LOW. CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN DIEGO
TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND PICKUP SPEED AS IT SHOULD BE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS COMES ON THURSDAY WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. NAM
BY FOR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROPICAL CONNECTION ADVECTING
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. GFS/ECMWF
TAKE MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA. THAT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING VERY CLOSELY FOR SURE AS IT COULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON RAINFALL INTENSITY THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA AS A DEEPER /EARLY FALL-LIKE/ TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL START TO BE SHUNTED EAST ON
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE I DID KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN A MONTH THAT HAS LACKED ON BIG-TIME HEAT, WE APPEAR TO CATCH YET
ANOTHER BREAK COME SATURDAY AS THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW DIG
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MOHAVE COUNTY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ACROSS THE LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS. ONE CONCERN ON SATURDAY IS THAT MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS SHOW A POOR ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDFIELDS WITH
HEIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PROGGED IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE FAVORED SPOTS GUST TO 25-35 MPH THEN. HIGHS SHOULD
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SEE ON FRIDAY.

TYPICAL OF EARLY SEASON COOL SEASON TROUGHS, THIS TROUGH APPEARS
DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
WIND DIRECTION SHIFT NOTED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT BY THE
TIME IT GETS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, THOUGH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST MAY TAKE PLACE INTO THE NW PART OF THE VALLEY THOUGH
IT MAY BE JUST AS EASILY MASKED BY THE DIURNAL NATURE OF WINDS AT
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSER TOWARD THE
ECMWF MOS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS SWIPES ACROSS UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP AWAY ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE AND KEEP US UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF ANY CLOUDS
THAT PUSH NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH
HIGH TEMPS SHOWING A WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE THOUGH TEMPERED.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, NIGHTS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE GIVEN THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOWER READINGS
OVERALL EVEN IN THE WARMER URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
CERTAINLY A SIGN WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SAYING HELLO TO FALL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS TODAY...WITH
THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL FAVOR A EAST
DIRECTION SHIFTING TO SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY BUT MAY BECOME
GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO ON TODAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEAST-SOUTH DIRECTION TODAY BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY
AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 201706
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1005 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND TO THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY. THE 12Z
LAS SOUNDING SHOWED CONDITIONS WERE QUITE UNSTABLE BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
FAIRLY SPARSE CONVECTION TODAY BUT STILL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL BUT
ESMERALDA AND WEST CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AND NORTHERN DEATH VALLEY.
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION
309 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RADAR MUCH QUIETER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WE ARE MONITORING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH EVER SO OFTEN ONE CELL WILL GENERATE A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES.

CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
INTEREST TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOSED LOW
WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF SURFACE HEATING A STRENGTHENING JETSTREAK EAST OF THE LOW
CUTTING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT. FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA, ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
OCCUR IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CLOSED LOW. CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN DIEGO
TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND PICKUP SPEED AS IT SHOULD BE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS COMES ON THURSDAY WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. NAM
BY FOR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROPICAL CONNECTION ADVECTING
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. GFS/ECMWF
TAKE MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA. THAT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING VERY CLOSELY FOR SURE AS IT COULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON RAINFALL INTENSITY THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA AS A DEEPER /EARLY FALL-LIKE/ TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL START TO BE SHUNTED EAST ON
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE I DID KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN A MONTH THAT HAS LACKED ON BIG-TIME HEAT, WE APPEAR TO CATCH YET
ANOTHER BREAK COME SATURDAY AS THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW DIG
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MOHAVE COUNTY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ACROSS THE LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS. ONE CONCERN ON SATURDAY IS THAT MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS SHOW A POOR ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDFIELDS WITH
HEIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PROGGED IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE FAVORED SPOTS GUST TO 25-35 MPH THEN. HIGHS SHOULD
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SEE ON FRIDAY.

TYPICAL OF EARLY SEASON COOL SEASON TROUGHS, THIS TROUGH APPEARS
DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
WIND DIRECTION SHIFT NOTED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT BY THE
TIME IT GETS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, THOUGH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST MAY TAKE PLACE INTO THE NW PART OF THE VALLEY THOUGH
IT MAY BE JUST AS EASILY MASKED BY THE DIURNAL NATURE OF WINDS AT
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSER TOWARD THE
ECMWF MOS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS SWIPES ACROSS UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP AWAY ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE AND KEEP US UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF ANY CLOUDS
THAT PUSH NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH
HIGH TEMPS SHOWING A WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE THOUGH TEMPERED.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, NIGHTS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE GIVEN THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOWER READINGS
OVERALL EVEN IN THE WARMER URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
CERTAINLY A SIGN WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SAYING HELLO TO FALL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS TODAY...WITH
THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL FAVOR A EAST
DIRECTION SHIFTING TO SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY BUT MAY BECOME
GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO ON TODAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEAST-SOUTH DIRECTION TODAY BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY
AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KLKN 201656
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
956 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS UNDER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY. EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM ACTIVITY. NO CHANGES BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 235 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.


AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.

FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 201656
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
956 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS UNDER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY. EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM ACTIVITY. NO CHANGES BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 235 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.


AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.

FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 201656
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
956 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS UNDER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY. EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM ACTIVITY. NO CHANGES BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 235 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.


AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.

FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 201656
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
956 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS UNDER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY. EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OVER MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM ACTIVITY. NO CHANGES BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 235 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.


AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.

FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96





000
FXUS65 KREV 201521
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
821 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IS PUSHING SMOKE AND HAZE
FROM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WASHOE AND LASSEN COUNTIES. SMOKE AND
HAZE MAY PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER
FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-NORTHWEST.

HAVE REMOVED THE SHOWERS FOR AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AS SKIES
HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BRING DRY AIR INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 395 FROM
SUSANVILLE THROUGH RENO-CARSON AND INTO MONO COUNTY. BRONG

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SHORT
TERM MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING UPPER LOW DOWN
THE CA COAST BEFORE MOVING IT INLAND LATE THURSDAY.

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF DEFORMATION HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF. THIS AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED AND
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WHILE UPPER LOW BECOMES
CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. FORCING DOES
NOT APPEAR OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO PICK UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA. ANY THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED THOUGH...DUE TO SOME
WEAK WARMING ALOFT.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
BY FRIDAY A BROADER...MORE WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STARTS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS TAKE THIS LOW A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NOT QUITE AS COOL
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS LOW COULD BE
GUSTY WEST WINDS FRIDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE WRN NV AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST CA WHERE FUELS
ARE DRYING AGAIN AND RH VALUES WOULD BE QUITE LOW. 20

LONG TERM...

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS DIFFERENCES BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK LEAD TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE DEPTH/POSITION
OF THE TROUGH AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE RIDGE RETURNS.

THE GFS HOLDS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ALLOWING REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TO DROP
THROUGH IT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH, AND ALLOWS IT TO EXIT
EASTWARD QUICKLY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CATCHES UP TO THE ECMWF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT BY THIS POINT THE ECMWF`S RIDGE IS FAR MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.

OUTSIDE OF PRONOUNCED TIMING AND PATTERN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
BY NEXT WEEK, BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR COOLING EARLY ON IN THE WEEK BEFORE
THE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD. TYPICAL WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. ELW

AVIATION...
TYPICAL WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND SIERRA TERMINALS AFTER 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING,
SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50"). SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE EVENING NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KLOL. ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 201521
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
821 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IS PUSHING SMOKE AND HAZE
FROM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WASHOE AND LASSEN COUNTIES. SMOKE AND
HAZE MAY PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER
FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-NORTHWEST.

HAVE REMOVED THE SHOWERS FOR AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AS SKIES
HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BRING DRY AIR INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 395 FROM
SUSANVILLE THROUGH RENO-CARSON AND INTO MONO COUNTY. BRONG

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SHORT
TERM MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING UPPER LOW DOWN
THE CA COAST BEFORE MOVING IT INLAND LATE THURSDAY.

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF DEFORMATION HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF. THIS AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED AND
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WHILE UPPER LOW BECOMES
CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. FORCING DOES
NOT APPEAR OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO PICK UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA. ANY THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED THOUGH...DUE TO SOME
WEAK WARMING ALOFT.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
BY FRIDAY A BROADER...MORE WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STARTS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS TAKE THIS LOW A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NOT QUITE AS COOL
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS LOW COULD BE
GUSTY WEST WINDS FRIDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE WRN NV AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST CA WHERE FUELS
ARE DRYING AGAIN AND RH VALUES WOULD BE QUITE LOW. 20

LONG TERM...

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS DIFFERENCES BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK LEAD TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE DEPTH/POSITION
OF THE TROUGH AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE RIDGE RETURNS.

THE GFS HOLDS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ALLOWING REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TO DROP
THROUGH IT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH, AND ALLOWS IT TO EXIT
EASTWARD QUICKLY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CATCHES UP TO THE ECMWF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT BY THIS POINT THE ECMWF`S RIDGE IS FAR MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.

OUTSIDE OF PRONOUNCED TIMING AND PATTERN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
BY NEXT WEEK, BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR COOLING EARLY ON IN THE WEEK BEFORE
THE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD. TYPICAL WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. ELW

AVIATION...
TYPICAL WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND SIERRA TERMINALS AFTER 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING,
SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50"). SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE EVENING NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KLOL. ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KVEF 201010
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
309 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RADAR MUCH QUIETER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WE ARE MONITORING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH EVER SO OFTEN ONE CELL WILL GENERATE A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES.

CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
INTEREST TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOSED LOW
WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF SURFACE HEATING A STRENGTHENING JETSTREAK EAST OF THE LOW
CUTTING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT. FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA, ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
OCCUR IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CLOSED LOW. CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN DIEGO
TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND PICKUP SPEED AS IT SHOULD BE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS COMES ON THURSDAY WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. NAM
BY FOR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROPICAL CONNECTION ADVECTING
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. GFS/ECMWF
TAKE MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA. THAT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING VERY CLOSELY FOR SURE AS IT COULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON RAINFALL INTENSITY THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA AS A DEEPER /EARLY FALL-LIKE/ TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL START TO BE SHUNTED EAST ON
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE I DID KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN A MONTH THAT HAS LACKED ON BIG-TIME HEAT, WE APPEAR TO CATCH YET
ANOTHER BREAK COME SATURDAY AS THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW DIG
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MOHAVE COUNTY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ACROSS THE LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS. ONE CONCERN ON SATURDAY IS THAT MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS SHOW A POOR ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDFIELDS WITH
HEIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PROGGED IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE FAVORED SPOTS GUST TO 25-35 MPH THEN. HIGHS SHOULD
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SEE ON FRIDAY.

TYPICAL OF EARLY SEASON COOL SEASON TROUGHS, THIS TROUGH APPEARS
DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
WIND DIRECTION SHIFT NOTED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT BY THE
TIME IT GETS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, THOUGH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST MAY TAKE PLACE INTO THE NW PART OF THE VALLEY THOUGH
IT MAY BE JUST AS EASILY MASKED BY THE DIURNAL NATURE OF WINDS AT
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSER TOWARD THE
ECMWF MOS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS SWIPES ACROSS UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP AWAY ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE AND KEEP US UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF ANY CLOUDS
THAT PUSH NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH
HIGH TEMPS SHOWING A WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE THOUGH TEMPERED.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, NIGHTS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE GIVEN THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOWER READINGS
OVERALL EVEN IN THE WARMER URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
CERTAINLY A SIGN WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SAYING HELLO TO FALL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING AND COULD
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
INTO ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS TODAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE
BEATTY CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEAST-SOUTH DIRECTION TODAY
BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO ON TODAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEAST-SOUTH DIRECTION TODAY BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY
AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 201010
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
309 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RADAR MUCH QUIETER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WE ARE MONITORING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH EVER SO OFTEN ONE CELL WILL GENERATE A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES.

CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
INTEREST TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOSED LOW
WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF SURFACE HEATING A STRENGTHENING JETSTREAK EAST OF THE LOW
CUTTING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT. FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA, ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
OCCUR IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CLOSED LOW. CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN DIEGO
TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND PICKUP SPEED AS IT SHOULD BE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS COMES ON THURSDAY WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. NAM
BY FOR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROPICAL CONNECTION ADVECTING
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. GFS/ECMWF
TAKE MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA. THAT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING VERY CLOSELY FOR SURE AS IT COULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON RAINFALL INTENSITY THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA AS A DEEPER /EARLY FALL-LIKE/ TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL START TO BE SHUNTED EAST ON
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE I DID KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN A MONTH THAT HAS LACKED ON BIG-TIME HEAT, WE APPEAR TO CATCH YET
ANOTHER BREAK COME SATURDAY AS THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW DIG
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MOHAVE COUNTY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ACROSS THE LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS. ONE CONCERN ON SATURDAY IS THAT MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS SHOW A POOR ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDFIELDS WITH
HEIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PROGGED IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE FAVORED SPOTS GUST TO 25-35 MPH THEN. HIGHS SHOULD
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SEE ON FRIDAY.

TYPICAL OF EARLY SEASON COOL SEASON TROUGHS, THIS TROUGH APPEARS
DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
WIND DIRECTION SHIFT NOTED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT BY THE
TIME IT GETS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, THOUGH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST MAY TAKE PLACE INTO THE NW PART OF THE VALLEY THOUGH
IT MAY BE JUST AS EASILY MASKED BY THE DIURNAL NATURE OF WINDS AT
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSER TOWARD THE
ECMWF MOS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS SWIPES ACROSS UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP AWAY ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE AND KEEP US UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF ANY CLOUDS
THAT PUSH NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH
HIGH TEMPS SHOWING A WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE THOUGH TEMPERED.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, NIGHTS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE GIVEN THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOWER READINGS
OVERALL EVEN IN THE WARMER URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
CERTAINLY A SIGN WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SAYING HELLO TO FALL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING AND COULD
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
INTO ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS TODAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE
BEATTY CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEAST-SOUTH DIRECTION TODAY
BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO ON TODAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEAST-SOUTH DIRECTION TODAY BUT WOULD BECOME GUSTY
AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KLKN 200935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

87/97/87






000
FXUS65 KLKN 200935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

87/97/87






000
FXUS65 KLKN 200935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

87/97/87






000
FXUS65 KLKN 200935
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO
COUNTY WHERE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE...LI OF NEAR -2 AND
STRONGEST CAPES. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT ROTATES TO THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROF ON THURSDAY. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN UTAH. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF WHITE PINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL SIGNATURE. THE RMOP IS IN
NEGATIVE TERRITORY BY F144...BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLEARLY HAVE
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. OVER THE LKN CWA THE
NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS RANGES FROM +1.0 TO +1.8...SUGGESTING
BOTH UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDED VCTS TO ELY...EKO...AND WMC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASING RH`S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

87/97/87






000
FXUS65 KREV 200904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
AND THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SHORT TERM
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING UPPER LOW DOWN THE
CA COAST BEFORE MOVING IT INLAND LATE THURSDAY.

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF DEFORMATION HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF. THIS AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED AND
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WHILE UPPER LOW BECOMES
CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. FORCING DOES
NOT APPEAR OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO PICK UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA. ANY THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED THOUGH...DUE TO SOME
WEAK WARMING ALOFT.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
BY FRIDAY A BROADER...MORE WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STARTS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS TAKE THIS LOW A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NOT QUITE AS COOL
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS LOW COULD BE
GUSTY WEST WINDS FRIDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE WRN NV AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST CA WHERE FUELS
ARE DRYING AGAIN AND RH VALUES WOULD BE QUITE LOW. 20

.LONG TERM...

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS DIFFERENCES BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK LEAD TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE DEPTH/POSITION
OF THE TROUGH AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE RIDGE RETURNS.

THE GFS HOLDS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ALLOWING REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TO DROP
THROUGH IT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH, AND ALLOWS IT TO EXIT
EASTWARD QUICKLY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CATCHES UP TO THE ECMWF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT BY THIS POINT THE ECMWF`S RIDGE IS FAR MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.

OUTSIDE OF PRONOUNCED TIMING AND PATTERN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
BY NEXT WEEK, BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR COOLING EARLY ON IN THE WEEK BEFORE
THE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD. TYPICAL WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND SIERRA TERMINALS AFTER 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING,
SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50"). SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE EVENING NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KLOL. ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 200904
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
AND THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SHORT TERM
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING UPPER LOW DOWN THE
CA COAST BEFORE MOVING IT INLAND LATE THURSDAY.

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF DEFORMATION HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF. THIS AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED AND
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WHILE UPPER LOW BECOMES
CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. FORCING DOES
NOT APPEAR OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO PICK UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA. ANY THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED THOUGH...DUE TO SOME
WEAK WARMING ALOFT.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
BY FRIDAY A BROADER...MORE WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STARTS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS TAKE THIS LOW A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NOT QUITE AS COOL
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS LOW COULD BE
GUSTY WEST WINDS FRIDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE WRN NV AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST CA WHERE FUELS
ARE DRYING AGAIN AND RH VALUES WOULD BE QUITE LOW. 20

.LONG TERM...

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS DIFFERENCES BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK LEAD TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE DEPTH/POSITION
OF THE TROUGH AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE RIDGE RETURNS.

THE GFS HOLDS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ALLOWING REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TO DROP
THROUGH IT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH, AND ALLOWS IT TO EXIT
EASTWARD QUICKLY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CATCHES UP TO THE ECMWF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT BY THIS POINT THE ECMWF`S RIDGE IS FAR MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.

OUTSIDE OF PRONOUNCED TIMING AND PATTERN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
BY NEXT WEEK, BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR COOLING EARLY ON IN THE WEEK BEFORE
THE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD. TYPICAL WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND SIERRA TERMINALS AFTER 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING,
SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50"). SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE EVENING NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KLOL. ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KVEF 200409
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
909 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE THE STORMS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...HEADING FOR
SOUTHWEST UTAH. SHOWERS THAT WERE NEAR NIPTON AND SEARCHLIGHT HAVE
MOVED NORTH AND DISSIPATED AROUND JEAN. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR BAKER...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND REMNANT INSTABILITY. THESE SEEM TO LAST ONLY ABOUT
45 MINUTES. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S UNDER THOSE
SHOWERS...NOT SURE MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND. THE LATEST HRRR /02Z
RUN/ DOES SHOW THESE SHOWERS BUT DISSIPATES THEM RATHER
QUICKLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
550 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND POPS WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN CLARK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS FARTHER WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THAT AREA. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THAT BOUNDARY AND...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY...EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR /22Z RUN/ DOES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
NIPTON TO SEARCHLIGHT TO LAUGHLIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATES...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MORGAN
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 200409
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
909 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE THE STORMS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...HEADING FOR
SOUTHWEST UTAH. SHOWERS THAT WERE NEAR NIPTON AND SEARCHLIGHT HAVE
MOVED NORTH AND DISSIPATED AROUND JEAN. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR BAKER...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND REMNANT INSTABILITY. THESE SEEM TO LAST ONLY ABOUT
45 MINUTES. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S UNDER THOSE
SHOWERS...NOT SURE MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND. THE LATEST HRRR /02Z
RUN/ DOES SHOW THESE SHOWERS BUT DISSIPATES THEM RATHER
QUICKLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
550 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND POPS WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN CLARK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS FARTHER WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THAT AREA. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THAT BOUNDARY AND...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY...EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR /22Z RUN/ DOES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
NIPTON TO SEARCHLIGHT TO LAUGHLIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATES...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MORGAN
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KREV 200232
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
732 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT
NOW. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO
OVERCOME LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FROM THE OVERALL PATTERN IT
APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP MORE
ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA THEN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA AS OPPOSED TO CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE TRYING TO MOVE INTO NRN
CA...BUT CONVECTION WITH THIS IS SLIGHT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS
NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT GIVEN
POSITIONING OF DEFORMATION ZONE A BIT FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WE HAVE GOING IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND REEVALUATE LATER. WILL ADJUST CONVECTION FOR THE
EVENING AS WELL MORE TO THE EASTERN CWA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 200232
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
732 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT
NOW. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO
OVERCOME LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FROM THE OVERALL PATTERN IT
APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP MORE
ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA THEN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA AS OPPOSED TO CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE TRYING TO MOVE INTO NRN
CA...BUT CONVECTION WITH THIS IS SLIGHT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS
NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT GIVEN
POSITIONING OF DEFORMATION ZONE A BIT FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WE HAVE GOING IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND REEVALUATE LATER. WILL ADJUST CONVECTION FOR THE
EVENING AS WELL MORE TO THE EASTERN CWA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 200232
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
732 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT
NOW. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO
OVERCOME LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FROM THE OVERALL PATTERN IT
APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP MORE
ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA THEN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA AS OPPOSED TO CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE TRYING TO MOVE INTO NRN
CA...BUT CONVECTION WITH THIS IS SLIGHT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS
NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT GIVEN
POSITIONING OF DEFORMATION ZONE A BIT FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WE HAVE GOING IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND REEVALUATE LATER. WILL ADJUST CONVECTION FOR THE
EVENING AS WELL MORE TO THE EASTERN CWA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 200232
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
732 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT
NOW. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO
OVERCOME LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FROM THE OVERALL PATTERN IT
APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP MORE
ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA THEN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA AS OPPOSED TO CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE TRYING TO MOVE INTO NRN
CA...BUT CONVECTION WITH THIS IS SLIGHT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS
NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT GIVEN
POSITIONING OF DEFORMATION ZONE A BIT FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WE HAVE GOING IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND REEVALUATE LATER. WILL ADJUST CONVECTION FOR THE
EVENING AS WELL MORE TO THE EASTERN CWA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KVEF 200050
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND POPS WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN CLARK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS FARTHER WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THAT AREA. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THAT BOUNDARY AND...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY...EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR /22Z RUN/ DOES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
NIPTON TO SEARCHLIGHT TO LAUGHLIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MORGAN
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 200050
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND POPS WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN CLARK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS FARTHER WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THAT AREA. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THAT BOUNDARY AND...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY...EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR /22Z RUN/ DOES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
NIPTON TO SEARCHLIGHT TO LAUGHLIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MORGAN
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 200050
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND POPS WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN CLARK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS FARTHER WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THAT AREA. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THAT BOUNDARY AND...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY...EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR /22Z RUN/ DOES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
NIPTON TO SEARCHLIGHT TO LAUGHLIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MORGAN
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 200050
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND POPS WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN CLARK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS FARTHER WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THAT AREA. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THAT BOUNDARY AND...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY...EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR /22Z RUN/ DOES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
NIPTON TO SEARCHLIGHT TO LAUGHLIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MORGAN
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KLKN 192201
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
301 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE EASTERN
ELKO COUNTY AND NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES WHERE BOUNDARY
LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE. STRONGEST CAPES WILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NV. AS UPPER LOWS SHIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CA ON WEDNESDAY...A
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL EUREKA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THIS AREA...WHILE A
DRY SLOT FORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH. A DRIER TROF FROM THE NORTH
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ELKO COUNTY AS A TAIL
END OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA. OTHERWISE REST OF
THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTY ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS
HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY WHERE
CAPE OF 50-100J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -2 PERSIST. TROUGH WEAKENS AND
EJECTS EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TAKING HOLD
OVER THE CWA. CONTINUED DRY WITH WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-TSRA POSSIBLE AT KEKO AND KELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROBABILITY FOR TS AT KWMC IS BELOW 10 PERCENT. CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF
OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

87/96/87






000
FXUS65 KLKN 192201
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
301 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SANTA BARBARA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE EASTERN
ELKO COUNTY AND NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES WHERE BOUNDARY
LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE. STRONGEST CAPES WILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NV. AS UPPER LOWS SHIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CA ON WEDNESDAY...A
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL EUREKA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THIS AREA...WHILE A
DRY SLOT FORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH. A DRIER TROF FROM THE NORTH
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ELKO COUNTY AS A TAIL
END OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA. OTHERWISE REST OF
THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTY ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS
HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY WHERE
CAPE OF 50-100J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -2 PERSIST. TROUGH WEAKENS AND
EJECTS EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TAKING HOLD
OVER THE CWA. CONTINUED DRY WITH WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-TSRA POSSIBLE AT KEKO AND KELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROBABILITY FOR TS AT KWMC IS BELOW 10 PERCENT. CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF
OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

87/96/87





000
FXUS65 KVEF 192117
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

MORGAN/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 192117
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

MORGAN/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KREV 192117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 192117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 192117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 192117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REACH LAKE TAHOE TO RENO-
CARSON AND EAST TO LOVELOCK-FALLON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW 25000 FEET, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RENO-TAHOE TO PYRAMID LAKE. HOWEVER DON`T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH
OF CEDARVILLE-GERLACH-LOVELOCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVES SKIMS THE NORTHERN NEVADA
BORDER. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE WEEK RISING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK TROUGH. THE GEM ENSEMBLE
ALSO HAS SIMILAR DEPTH/TIMING WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GEM IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A FLOP FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT
THE CURRENT GFS/EC RUNS SO THE 12Z GEM HAS BEEN IGNORED.

IMPACTS FROM THE LATE WEEK TROUGH WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST PEOPLE. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA`S COLDER VALLEYS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
WINDS COULD BRING SOME CONCERN FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KRNO AND NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SFC WND
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL (UP TO AROUND 0.50").

ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z/2 PM PDT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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