[top]
000
FXUS65 KLKN 201006
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
306 AM PDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE MOIST
WEATHER AND TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY WET OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
TOGETHER ON THE SHORT TERM. WEST TO EAST ORIENTED CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL SIMPLY WOBBLE AROUND ITSELF AND MOSEY TO
MONTANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL AIR MASS FROM LAST SYSTEM IS
STILL DRY AND STABLE...HENCE LOW TO ZERO POPS. TEMPS ON THE
REBOUND AND RH`S WILL DROP A BIT AS A RESULT. OVERALL...WARM AND
PLEASANT WEATHER...UNLESS YOU NEED RAIN THEN IT`S NOT SO PLEASANT. BB
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO STATE LINE...A WEAK RIDGE
WEST OF THERE...AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFF THE COAST. RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT
DAY...IF STILL A BIT COOL FOR LATE JUNE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT
IN THE 70S AND 80S AFTER STARTING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD AND STARTS TO COLLAPSE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC TO START
MOVING IN. LOW SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER...MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC LATER SUNDAY.
SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SO KEPT SHOWERS CONFINED TO MAINLY
HUMBOLDT/NW ELKO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS/VORT MAX.
ALLOWED FOR SOME THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH. HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...MAINLY 80S.
THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE ON MONDAY...WITH SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND
FGEN...COMBINED WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE INSTABILITY...TO ALLOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY CLOUDS...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE
MODERATING TREND WITH SOME 50S TO BE FOUND...WITH COOLER HIGHS ON
MONDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...MAINLY
70S AND 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THINGS START TO CHANGE...AS WHILE A LARGE
UPPER LOW WILL STILL SPIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC WEST OF
WASHINGTON...HEIGHTS WILL START TO REBOUND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND THE PATH FOR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD
LIFT NORTH AS WELL. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A VERY STRONG FOUR CORNERS HIGH DEVELOPS AND THE
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING A
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN BACK TO THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD EASILY END UP BRINGING THE HOTTEST
WEATHER OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. HIGHS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND
90S WITH 100S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOWS WILL STAY MILD WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RCM
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VIS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AT TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
IN MOST LOCALES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE AGAIN. RCM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA. ZONE 457
WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS DEVELOP TO NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RH`S DROPPING TO LOWER DOUBLE OR UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. CLOSE TO CRITERIA BUT EXPECTING TO STAY BELOW. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER WINDS AND HIGHER RH UNTIL LATE
MONDAY WHEN THEN NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN ZONE 467. THIS ONE COULD
PRODUCE WETTING RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
98/93/93/98
[top]
000
FXUS65 KVEF 200956
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 AM PDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. MINOR IMPULSES
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LESSENING WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...BY SUNDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PAC NW AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA - HOWEVER - A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AS WELL
AS NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COULD
OCCUR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. FORECAST TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES BOTH DAYS.
ALTHOUGH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUESDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM ON
OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD NORTH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND STRENGTHEN
BY WEDNESDAY WHEN 500 MB HEIGHTS MAY GET AS HIGH AS 599 DM. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BROUGHT THE WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE WHICH MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
INITIALLY BE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY - IT STARTS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING BY THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD INDUCE A
GULF SURGE. IF THIS HAPPENS WE MAY SAY HELLO TO THE MONSOON SEASON
IN OUR AREA AS EARLY AS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AROUND 20Z THURSDAY
TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS. WINDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET AT TIMES.
&&
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING - THEN WINDS SHOULD FAVOR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. A FEW CLOUDS
AOA 25K FEET AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WERE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR AZZ102 WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
JENSEN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 200952
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
252 AM PDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING
BACK TO AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IT TURNS COOLER FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME REINFORCING COOL AIR MOVING
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS SITUATED OVER IDAHO`S WESTERN STATE
LINE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THE RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES, BUT THIS IS LIKELY
OVERBLOWN SINCE DRY AIR WILL BE ENSCONCED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA. CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY WITH
A MORE POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SOME JET DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO
PLAY WITH A JET STREAK EXITING NEVADA LATE IN THE MORNING ON
FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO FOR WIDESPREAD WIND
ENHANCEMENT SINCE THE JET IS EXITING PRIOR TO THE WARMER AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE, BREEZIEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL NEVADA
WHILE WESTERN NEVADA GUSTS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 20 MPH
RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PERSHING, CHURCHILL, AND MINERAL COUNTIES. BOYD
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT TO SLOW THE COOLING TREND
ANOTHER DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING INTO THE WEST
COAST VICINITY OF NORTHERN CA-OREGON. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM WERE
THE MOST SOUTHERN MODEL RUNS WITH THE QPF FIELDS WHILE THE ECMWF
REPRESENTED A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH ITS PRIMARY AIM AT THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES/COASTAL RANGE. SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN FINAL
LOCATION OF MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS UNCHANGED AT MODERATE. DESPITE
THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO
REACH THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS HIGH AND THUS POPS
WERE INCREASED TO HIGHER CHANCE FOR THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME FOR THESE
AREAS WHILE THE REST OF WESTERN NV AND CENTRAL SIERRA WERE MOSTLY
UNCHANGED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. THAT MEANS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS IN
THE TAHOE BASIN, RENO, AND BASIN AND RANGE AROUND LOVELOCK/FALLON IS
HIGHEST AS THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND NO RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE FAIRLY ABRUPT. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF SUSANVILLE UP INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY STAND AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME WETTING
RAINS AND POPS WILL PROBABLY NEED RAISING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS MODEL CERTAINTY INCREASES. COOLED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
FAR NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE LOWERING READINGS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARM-UP WILL GET GOING IN EARNEST WED AND BEYOND AS A
RIDGE INTENSIFIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND UPPER JET RETREATS TO
THE NORTH. HOHMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT.
HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KVEF 200352
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
852 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN SOME
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...THE 00Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
FROM 12Z IN SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 700 MB AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTED UP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHOW
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY OFF
THE OREGON COAST SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN THE BASE OF THE
BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE TRENDS
COVERED AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY AS COOLER AIR DID WORK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 9 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. WIND ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY HAVE BECOME VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING NORTHERLY SHIFT THIS MORNING.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST SATURDAY. PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY. AS WE APPROACH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AS THIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE FLOW CAN TURN MORE
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE ANY INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INFLUX IN MOISTURE
LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW DRY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 18Z PRIOR TO THE WINDS KICKING AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN GENERAL THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
KTS STRONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. THE
AREA OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS AND VERY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY
THAN TODAY WITH A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/CZYZYK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KLKN 192236
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVER NIGHT...MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING. MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM12 CLEARLY PINGS
INTO A SWATH OF INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...BUT THE
JUICIEST CONVECTION WILL MATERIALIZE NORTH OF THE LKN CWA THIS
EVENING. THERE ARE FEW LINGERING CELLS ALONG THE OREGON AND IDAHO
BORDER BUT NOTHING OVERTLY OMINOUS OVER THE LKN CWA. TONIGHT
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE SILVER STATE AND THE
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NV FOR TONIGHT AND EXPIRING AT 7 AM PDT
TOMORROW. AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHES TO THE EASTWARD...EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE SILVER STATE.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE STARTS
OUT THE LONG TERM WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING
S ORE/N CALIF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAN THE GFS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE FOCUS OF INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THEREAFTER...A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OF DRY AND WARMER AIR FOR THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE IS GUSTY
WINDS...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
PICKUP IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY OF THE CELLS TO BECOME SVR-WORTHY. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS AVERAGED ABOUT 20 KNOTS...SOAKING RAINS NOT EXPECTED. SNOW
WAS OBSERVED IN CARLIN...JARBIDGE AND TUSCARORA TODAY. THE BIGGER
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WERE THE WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT RHS AND
GUSTY WINDS THAT MATERIALIZED. EXPECTING SINGLE DIGIT RHS AGAIN
TOMORROW...HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL BE MORE MILD. THE HAINES
INDICES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE YET FOR THE ENSUING 48 HR PERIOD.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/89/89/97
000
FXUS65 KREV 192209
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO AVERAGE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT TURNS
COOLER FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
COOLED EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
AND IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WITH STABILIZING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND MODESTLY AS A WEAK TROUGH
HANGS AROUND AND LIMITS WARMING. ON FRIDAY, THE REGION IS STILL
SET TO GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO START DRY AND WARM WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
FLAT RIDGE MOVES OVER CA-NV, BUT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. OVERALL, THE 12Z GUIDANCE DATA IS STILL TRENDING
COOLER AND WETTER ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF INDICATED MORE RAIN POTENTIAL
SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS FAVORED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT,
THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL INDICATE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE DETAILS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE RAIN WILL EXTEND AND
HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS THE SPREAD AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAS INCREASED, DUE TO THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND UPPER
LEVEL JET.
IN GENERAL, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SHOWERS IS TARGETED FOR
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH DECREASING CHANCES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HIGHWAY 50, WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL BE KEPT DRY THRU NEXT WEEK. RIDGE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP, THE INCREASE IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE LESS
SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT WIND FORECASTS FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY WOULD YIELD
POTENTIAL GUSTS 25-30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY, THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO RETREAT FARTHER
NORTH WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AMONG GUIDANCE DATA, SO AGAIN THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAIN CARRYING OVER THRU
THE DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MODERATELY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AGAIN, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF CLOUD COVER
DECREASES SUFFICIENTLY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
NEXT WEDNESDAY IS MORE LIKELY TO BE DRY REGIONWIDE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. FURTHER WARMING INTO THE
LOWER-MID 90S IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV WITH LOWER-MID 80S
FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
LATER NEXT WEEK, PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE FAVORING A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL US ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO THIS
SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO THE
WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN. HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HANG ON TO PREVAILING SW FLOW LONGER, WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABILIZING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA, SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS (BUT
NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS) INTO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.
SUB-RIDGE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS (LOCALLY 25 KTS) THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON THURSDAY. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KVEF 192130
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN SOME
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY AS COOLER AIR DID WORK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 9 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. WIND ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY HAVE BECOME VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING NORTHERLY SHIFT THIS MORNING.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST SATURDAY. PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY. AS WE APPROACH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AS THIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE FLOW CAN TURN MORE
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE ANY INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INFLUX IN MOISTURE
LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW DRY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 18Z PRIOR TO THE WINDS KICKING AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN GENERAL THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
KTS STRONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. THE
AREA OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY DUE
TO WINDS AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TODAY AND WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE
SEEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ON
THURSDAY WITH A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/CZYZYK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 191642 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
942 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT HAS PUSHED INTO THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY WITH SOME GUSTS SEEN UP TO 30 MPH. UPDATED TO ADJUST WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 WITH GUSTS 20KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN GENERAL...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE WINDS SLIGHTLY. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS TODAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. BUT A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. FOR LAS VEGAS
THE EXPECTANT HIGH OF 97 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END THE STRING
OF 17 DAYS OF 100 DEGREE READINGS OR WARMER AND ALSO THE STRING OF
20 DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS
SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS...LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE LIMITED. FURTHER OUT...MODELS
STILL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OF THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PWATS UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL
NOT THAT SUBSTANTIAL...BUT ABOUT A 4X INCREASE FROM CURRENT LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
LIGHTEN UP THIS MORNING AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
(FAVORING THE NORTHWEST BUT UNDER 10KTS) BY LATE MORNING / EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WINDS DURING THAT
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT ANY STRONGER WINDS (10KT OR GREATER) WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 WITH GUSTS 20KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN GENERAL...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. THE
AREA OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS
AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS TODAY THAN ON TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE SEEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
LOWER THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
AVIATION...CZYZYK
PREV DISCUSSION...JENSEN/KENNEDY
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KLKN 191548
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
848 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS STARTED MUCH EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
OVER NORTHERN NV. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
LANDER AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 AM /
SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON
BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE DETAILS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FASTER ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE 500 MB PACIFIC LOW BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND 70S OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. 10-15 DEGREE WARM UP ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
PROBLEM O` THE DAY IS LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A
RANGE OF ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WHICH IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING GIVEN THAT
THIS RANGE STRADDLES FREEZING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE LADEN SHORT WAVES WILL CONTROL
THE ACTUAL MIN TEMPS AND DURATION OF THE MINS. BELIEVE THAT TEMPS
MAY SPIKE DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR RIGHT AT FREEZING IN MOST
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS FOR A SHORT DURATION AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT
AND THEN RECOVER AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...SOME COLD
PRONE VALLEYS WILL SPIKE DOWN TO LOW TO MID 30S FOR A SHORT TIME FOR
SAME REASONS. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
PHENOMENON RATHER THAN A FREEZE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTHERN
NEVADA...SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CALI AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT SEE LIKELIES...MORE LIKE HIGH
CHANCE...OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. SO HAVE LOWERED THEM A HAIR. SNOW
LEVELS DO DROP TO THE 8000 FOOT RANGE IN A FEW SELECT RANGES IN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...MAINLY THE INDEPENDENCE...SANTA
ROSA...AND JARBIDGE AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND CERTAINLY NOT ON
HIGHWAYS OR POPULATED VALLEYS...BUT A BEAUTIFUL MID JUNE DUSTING
COULD MAKE SOME GOOD PHOTO OPS.
DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP.
GUSTY WINDS AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSES TODAY AND THEN AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN SPEEDS BUT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM WEST TO
NORTHWEST. BB
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS
OUT TRANQUIL...BUT THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET WEATHER. WE
START OUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH. ENERGY APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE...SO RIGHT NOW HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A SHOWER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PLACES IN THE 30S OR LOW 40S.
THAT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND SUNNY SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE PASSING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
COOLER AND NUDGE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.
RIDGE AXIS PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MORE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
LIKELY TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ITS GETTING A BIT LATE IN THE YEAR FOR THIS
TO AFFECT OUR CWA BUT NOT QUITE IMPOSSIBLE. STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVES...BUT FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE 0Z GUIDANCE THAT A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TIMING WILL NOT BE HAD FOR A FEW DAYS BUT RIGHT NOW DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT LEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY THEN MAY COOL A BIT
MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE FLOWS IN.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS LATER NEXT WEEK AS TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MOISTURE AND WHETHER IT MAY GENERATE FURTHER SHOWERS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST MAINLY DRY. RCM
AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE IS
GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 30 KNOTS. RCM
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT RH`S MUCH HIGHER
WITH COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A 7-10 DEGREE WARM UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/97
000
FXUS65 KREV 191134 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE MORNING
HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TRACK INTO CANADA. WINDS WILL
PICK BACK UP DURING THE DAYTIME AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER, THIS
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN A LITTLE
BREEZY. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 25 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT ENDED UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, AS FAR SOUTH AS JANESVILLE AND HONEY LAKE. THEREFORE,
HAVE INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY;
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE
WARMING TREND. COOLED THE DAILY MAXIMUMS THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOLER
AIR PUNCHES FARTHER SOUTH AND LINGERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH COOLER, WE WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW TO UPPER 60S
IN THE SIERRA. BOYD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z MODEL DATA CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER AND A BIT COOLER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG PACIFIC JET/PWAT PLUME
MOVE FROM WEST OF THE DATE LINE INTO THE OREGON AND NRN CA COAST
SUN-MON. THE GFS SHOWED 120-150KT JET IN THE GULF OF ALASKA NOSING
INTO NRN CA WITH PWAT PLUME TWO INCHES JUST OFFSHORE, AND UPWARDS TO
ONE INCH OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THIS VERY MOIST PLUME WILL
RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AT THE LEAST WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SATURATED ABOVE 600MB. BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF JET AXIS
WHICH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA INTO NORTHERN NV AND
POINTS NORTHWARD. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY SUN-MON AND
INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND AREAS
NORTH OF I-80 SUN NIGHT-MON AND FAR NORTH INTO TUE AS UPPER JET
STREAM BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO EXPANDING RIDGE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER IN THESE AREAS IF MODELS SHOW PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN.
UNLESS MODELS COME FURTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER JET, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
MISS A CHANCE AT SOME EARLY SUMMER RAIN. COOLED HIGHS ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES THROUGH PERIOD WHILE WARMING OVERNIGHT LOWS. WINDS SATURDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FOR ONE MORE DAY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WESTERLIES WILL THEN KICK
IN, STRENGTH HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND HEATING
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE. HOHMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO WINNEMUCCA LINE TODAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A
GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE AT AREA TERMINALS. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KLKN 191044
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON
BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE DETAILS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FASTER ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE 500 MB PACIFIC LOW BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND 70S OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. 10-15 DEGREE WARM UP ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
PROBLEM O` THE DAY IS LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A
RANGE OF ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WHICH IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING GIVEN THAT
THIS RANGE STRADDLES FREEZING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE LADEN SHORT WAVES WILL CONTROL
THE ACTUAL MIN TEMPS AND DURATION OF THE MINS. BELIEVE THAT TEMPS
MAY SPIKE DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR RIGHT AT FREEZING IN MOST
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS FOR A SHORT DURATION AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT
AND THEN RECOVER AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...SOME COLD
PRONE VALLEYS WILL SPIKE DOWN TO LOW TO MID 30S FOR A SHORT TIME FOR
SAME REASONS. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
PHENOMENON RATHER THAN A FREEZE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTHERN
NEVADA...SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CALI AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT SEE LIKELIES...MORE LIKE HIGH
CHANCE...OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. SO HAVE LOWERED THEM A HAIR. SNOW
LEVELS DO DROP TO THE 8000 FOOT RANGE IN A FEW SELECT RANGES IN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...MAINLY THE INDEPENDENCE...SANTA
ROSA...AND JARBIDGE AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND CERTAINLY NOT ON
HIGHWAYS OR POPULATED VALLEYS...BUT A BEAUTIFUL MID JUNE DUSTING
COULD MAKE SOME GOOD PHOTO OPS.
DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP.
GUSTY WINDS AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSES TODAY AND THEN AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN SPEEDS BUT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM WEST TO
NORTHWEST. BB
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS
OUT TRANQUIL...BUT THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET WEATHER. WE
START OUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH. ENERGY APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE...SO RIGHT NOW HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A SHOWER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PLACES IN THE 30S OR LOW 40S.
THAT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND SUNNY SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE PASSING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
COOLER AND NUDGE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.
RIDGE AXIS PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MORE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
LIKELY TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ITS GETTING A BIT LATE IN THE YEAR FOR THIS
TO AFFECT OUR CWA BUT NOT QUITE IMPOSSIBLE. STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVES...BUT FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE 0Z GUIDANCE THAT A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TIMING WILL NOT BE HAD FOR A FEW DAYS BUT RIGHT NOW DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT LEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY THEN MAY COOL A BIT
MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE FLOWS IN.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS LATER NEXT WEEK AS TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MOISTURE AND WHETHER IT MAY GENERATE FURTHER SHOWERS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST MAINLY DRY. RCM
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE IS
GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 30 KNOTS. RCM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT RH`S MUCH HIGHER
WITH COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A 7-10 DEGREE WARM UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
98/93/93/98
000
FXUS65 KREV 191010
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. WARMING
CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE MORNING
HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TRACK INTO CANADA. WINDS WILL
PICK BACK UP DURING THE DAYTIME AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER, THIS
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN A LITTLE
BREEZY. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 25 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT ENDED UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, AS FAR SOUTH AS JANESVILLE AND HONEY LAKE. THEREFORE,
HAVE INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY;
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE
WARMING TREND. COOLED THE DAILY MAXIMUMS THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOLER
AIR PUNCHES FARTHER SOUTH AND LINGERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH COOLER, WE WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW TO UPPER 60S
IN THE SIERRA. BOYD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z MODEL DATA CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER AND A BIT COOLER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG PACIFIC JET/PWAT PLUME
MOVE FROM WEST OF THE DATE LINE INTO THE OREGON AND NRN CA COAST
SUN-MON. THE GFS SHOWED 120-150KT JET IN THE GULF OF ALASKA NOSING
INTO NRN CA WITH PWAT PLUME TWO INCHES JUST OFFSHORE, AND UPWARDS TO
ONE INCH OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THIS VERY MOIST PLUME WILL
RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AT THE LEAST WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SATURATED ABOVE 600MB. BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF JET AXIS
WHICH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA INTO NORTHERN NV AND
POINTS NORTHWARD. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY SUN-MON AND
INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND AREAS
NORTH OF I-80 SUN NIGHT-MON AND FAR NORTH INTO TUE AS UPPER JET
STREAM BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO EXPANDING RIDGE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER IN THESE AREAS IF MODELS SHOW PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN.
UNLESS MODELS COME FURTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER JET, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
MISS A CHANCE AT SOME EARLY SUMMER RAIN. COOLED HIGHS ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES THROUGH PERIOD WHILE WARMING OVERNIGHT LOWS. WINDS SATURDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FOR ONE MORE DAY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WESTERLIES WILL THEN KICK
IN, STRENGTH HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND HEATING
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE. HOHMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO WINNEMUCCA LINE TODAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A
GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE AT AREA TERMINALS. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KVEF 190959
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE WINDS SLIGHTLY. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS TODAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. BUT A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. FOR LAS VEGAS
THE EXPECTANT HIGH OF 97 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END THE STRING
OF 17 DAYS OF 100 DEGREE READINGS OR WARMER AND ALSO THE STRING OF
20 DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS
SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS...LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE LIMITED. FURTHER OUT...MODELS
STILL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OF THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PWATS UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL
NOT THAT SUBSTANTIAL...BUT ABOUT A 4X INCREASE FROM CURRENT LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
LIGHTEN UP THIS MORNING AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
(FAVORING THE NORTHWEST BUT UNDER 10KTS) BY LATE MORNING / EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WINDS DURING THAT
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT ANY STRONGER WINDS (10KT OR GREATER) WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 WITH GUSTS 20KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN GENERAL...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. THE
AREA OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS
AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS TODAY THAN ON TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE SEEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
LOWER THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
JENSEN/KENNEDY
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 190602
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1102 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AS WINDS WERE FINALLY
SETTLING DOWN. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
216 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ISSUE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE THE
DRY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HI-RES MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR SHOWING WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. INCOMING TROUGH WILL KNOCK DOWN
HEIGHTS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE WARMING TREND BEGIN ON FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE THE 17 DAY
STRETCH OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR LAS VEGAS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG TERM GRIDS WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A SAGGY TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX/NM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING OUT A BIT FURTHER...BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY PUSH A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MAY ALLOW
FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO LOCK ON TO THIS SOLUTION
BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING...MOSTLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY FOR ARIZONA ZONE 102.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO MEET THE 6 HOUR TIME FRAME NEEDED FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE 6 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN...FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT
THE WINDS DOWN AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KTS ON AVERAGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AS FAR SOUTH AS A
KNID-KVGT-KSGU LINE. GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/PIERCE/WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KLKN 190402 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
902 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SILVER STATE
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FURTHER SOUTH. PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF COOLING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER ALONG WITH DECREASING WIND GUSTS
HAS RESULTED IN IMPROVED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 337 PM /
SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SILVER STATE
TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TOMORROW...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...USHERING A MODERATED PACIFIC AIRMASS.
THE 500MB PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHTS DROPPING DOWN TO 558DAM OVER THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL BE A VERY COOL AIRMASS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. 700-500MB R.H.
INCREASES TO 70% NORTH OF I-80...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT THE LOW EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE PWAT GRADIENT WILL BE VERY SHARP WITH
THE I-80 CORRIDOR BEGIN THE DIVIDING LINE...AS PWAT VALUES ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BARELY REACH .15". THUS IT WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH GUSTY COOL WESTERLY WINDS...ALLOWING WINDS GUSTS TO
REACH NEAR 30MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END TOMORROW EVENING
WAS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH 700MB TEMPS
AROUND -2C MOST PLACES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE IF A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE
MODELS ONCE AGAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROF ASSOCIATED WILL THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD SPELL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE
BEGINS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES...CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT..PWATS/K APPROACH
1 INCH/30 IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GOOD SO WENT AHEAD
AND JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY. COMBINED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN THIS COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN FOR DRY LIGHTNING AS PWATS AND K REMAIN BELOW .75/30.
ELSEWHERE...WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE FAIRLY WARM.
AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY REDUCTION IS
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...TURB WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MTN RANGES.
FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF FWZ 470
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FIRE ZONES...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. WAS CLOSELY LOOKING AT FWZ 455 FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
WIND/R.H. VALUES BECOMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE ZONE.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A THIS TIME.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
89/85/89
000
FXUS65 KREV 190331 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE LAKE WINDS FOR MANY ZONES AND ALSO CANCEL
RED FLAG EARLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING FASTER.
RH HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 25-40% THERE SO THE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER
THREAT HAS ENDED.
OTHER PORTION OF THE UPDATE WILL DEAL WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NW LASSEN COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST SO ADJUSTED THE SHOWERS TO AS FAR
SOUTH AS SUSANVILLE. WITH THE STRONG FORCING WILL ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET HIT BY A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE UP TO A 1/4 INCH OF RAIN. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN AREA LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
VERY DRY AIR, MAKING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON SATELLITE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LOW IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH A VERY DRY AIR
MASS MAKING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY, SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BEHIND THE FRONT, DECREASING FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING ROUGH AND CHOPPY
WATERS ON ALL AREA LAKES AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. POST-FRONTAL BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COMBINED WITH A JET STREAK
WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP, SO QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. INSTABILITY
REMAINS BEST FURTHER NORTH INTO OREGON AND IDAHO, CLOSER TO THE
CORE OF THE LOW, SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL ALSO USHER IN A COOLER
AIRMASS, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DF
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THRU NEXT TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, RESIDUAL NORTH
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK, WITH MOST AREAS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER-MID
80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, FLAT RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER-MID 90S ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LATE DAY ZEPHYR
BREEZE SUNDAY WITH INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. SOME FLAT CUMULUS COULD
DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WARM AIR ALOFT
AND ABSENCE OF FORCING WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LARGE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST FLOW TO CA-NV, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON-EVENING WIND GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH
THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGING SOME PRECIP IN FAR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST
NV. THE GFS, PREVIOUS ECMWF, AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA KEEP THE
PRECIP NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER, SO HAVE NOT ADDED POPS AT THIS
TIME. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND FLATTER FLOW WILL BRING A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH,
BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SLOW WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
TO RESUME TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE WESTERN US.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND A FURTHER INCREASE
IN TEMPS, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL NV BASIN. MJD
AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF
THE SIERRA. WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST PRIMARILY
THROUGH THE BASIN AND RANGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DF
FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
BRINGING INCREASING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PRODUCING
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NEVADA.
A STRONG JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS ON SLIDE
MOUNTAIN ALREADY AROUND 40 MPH. SURFACE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING, SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 11PM.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH HAS RESULTED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS
FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY,
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH, ACROSS MOST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS IN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTY MAY REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. POOR RECOVERIES WILL ALSO PERSIST TONIGHT IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. HOHMANN/EKL
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ453-459.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ272.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KVEF 190245
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
745 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...SO EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
216 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ISSUE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE THE
DRY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HI-RES MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR SHOWING WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. INCOMING TROUGH WILL KNOCK DOWN
HEIGHTS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE WARMING TREND BEGIN ON FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE THE 17 DAY
STRETCH OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR LAS VEGAS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG TERM GRIDS WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A SAGGY TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX/NM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING OUT A BIT FURTHER...BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY PUSH A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MAY ALLOW
FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO LOCK ON TO THIS SOLUTION
BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING...MOSTLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY FOR ARIZONA ZONE 102.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO MEET THE 6 HOUR TIME FRAME NEEDED FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE 6 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN...FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT
THE WINDS DOWN AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KTS ON AVERAGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AS FAR SOUTH AS A
KNID-KVGT-KSGU LINE. GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ460>462.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/PIERCE/WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KLKN 182237
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SILVER STATE
TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TOMORROW...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...USHERING A MODERATED PACIFIC AIRMASS.
THE 500MB PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHTS DROPPING DOWN TO 558DAM OVER THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL BE A VERY COOL AIRMASS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. 700-500MB R.H.
INCREASES TO 70% NORTH OF I-80...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT THE LOW EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE PWAT GRADIENT WILL BE VERY SHARP WITH
THE I-80 CORRIDOR BEGIN THE DIVIDING LINE...AS PWAT VALUES ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BARELY REACH .15". THUS IT WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH GUSTY COOL WESTERLY WINDS...ALLOWING WINDS GUSTS TO
REACH NEAR 30MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END TOMORROW EVENING
WAS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH 700MB TEMPS
AROUND -2C MOST PLACES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE IF A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE
MODELS ONCE AGAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROF ASSOCIATED WILL THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD SPELL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE
BEGINS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES...CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT..PWATS/K APPROACH
1 INCH/30 IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GOOD SO WENT AHEAD
AND JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY. COMBINED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN THIS COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN FOR DRY LIGHTNING AS PWATS AND K REMAIN BELOW .75/30.
ELSEWHERE...WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE FAIRLY WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY REDUCTION IS
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...TURB WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MTN RANGES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO CRANK THIS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO
ENTER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. MOST AREAS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS
WILL R.H. VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS GUSTING IN THE
30MPH ZONE. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 9PM WITH R.H.
VALUES CLIMBING AS TEMPS COOL. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MOST
OF FWZ 470 THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING
RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FIRE ZONES...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WAS CLOSELY LOOKING AT FWZ 455 FOR
TOMORROW WITH WIND/R.H. VALUES BECOMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...BUT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30MPH FOR MOST
OF THE ZONE. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A THIS TIME.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
95/85/85/95
000
FXUS65 KVEF 182117
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
216 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ISSUE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE THE
DRY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HI-RES MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR SHOWING WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. INCOMING TROUGH WILL KNOCK DOWN
HEIGHTS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE WARMING TREND BEGIN ON FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE THE 17 DAY
STRETCH OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR LAS VEGAS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG TERM GRIDS WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A SAGGY TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX/NM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING OUT A BIT FURTHER...BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY PUSH A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MAY ALLOW
FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO LOCK ON TO THIS SOLUTION
BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING...MOSTLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY FOR ARIZONA ZONE 102.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO MEET THE 6 HOUR TIME FRAME NEEDED FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE 6 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN...FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT
THE WINDS DOWN AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KTS ON AVERAGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AS FAR SOUTH AS A
KNID-KVGT-KSGU LINE. GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ460>462.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KREV 182109
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN AREA LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
VERY DRY AIR, MAKING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON SATELLITE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LOW IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH A VERY DRY AIR
MASS MAKING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY, SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BEHIND THE FRONT, DECREASING FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING ROUGH AND CHOPPY
WATERS ON ALL AREA LAKES AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. POST-FRONTAL BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COMBINED WITH A JET STREAK
WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP, SO QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. INSTABILITY
REMAINS BEST FURTHER NORTH INTO OREGON AND IDAHO, CLOSER TO THE
CORE OF THE LOW, SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL ALSO USHER IN A COOLER
AIRMASS, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DF
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THRU NEXT TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, RESIDUAL NORTH
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK, WITH MOST AREAS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER-MID
80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, FLAT RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER-MID 90S ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LATE DAY ZEPHYR
BREEZE SUNDAY WITH INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. SOME FLAT CUMULUS COULD
DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WARM AIR ALOFT
AND ABSENCE OF FORCING WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LARGE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST FLOW TO CA-NV, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON-EVENING WIND GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH
THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGING SOME PRECIP IN FAR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST
NV. THE GFS, PREVIOUS ECMWF, AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA KEEP THE
PRECIP NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER, SO HAVE NOT ADDED POPS AT THIS
TIME. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND FLATTER FLOW WILL BRING A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH,
BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SLOW WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
TO RESUME TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE WESTERN US.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND A FURTHER INCREASE
IN TEMPS, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL NV BASIN. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF
THE SIERRA. WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST PRIMARILY
THROUGH THE BASIN AND RANGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DF
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
BRINGING INCREASING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PRODUCING
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NEVADA.
A STRONG JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS ON SLIDE
MOUNTAIN ALREADY AROUND 40 MPH. SURFACE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING, SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 11PM.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH HAS RESULTED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS
FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY,
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH, ACROSS MOST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS IN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTY MAY REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. POOR RECOVERIES WILL ALSO PERSIST TONIGHT IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. HOHMANN/EKL
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ458.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ453-459.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ450.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ071.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ271-278.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ272.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KVEF 181652 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING WINDS ARE
SEEN THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES COMBINED WITH VERY
DRY FUEL LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY...AND ONLY FOR
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGE TO EXISTING RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 27 KTS ON AVERAGE. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ON AVERAGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
309 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/
EVENING WINDS TO THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS WITH TODAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH
WILL LIKELY BE SEEN. IN ADDITION...LOCAL DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OWENS VALLEY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BY THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH
WILL KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO RELAX WITH RISING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN LESS WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BEFORE
LOWERING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO
THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN
UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIANCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TODAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THEN CROSSES OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY COMBINE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE 6 HOUR TIME FRAME NEEDED FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE 6 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE...HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS TO OVER 35 MPH ARE NOW EXPECTED FOR AZZ102 AND WILL ISSUE A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN ON
THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE
DISTRICT AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ460>462.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...JENSEN/KENNEDY
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
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