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000
FXUS61 KBGM 011558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1158 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 30S. MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO GET JUST ABOVE 40 TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/MSE
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1158 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 30S. MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO GET JUST ABOVE 40 TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/MSE
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 011439
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011130
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. THEN A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY
AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO 875-825 HPA PER MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS...AND LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. WENT WITH A PTCLDY FCST THIS MORNING AS
THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS...THEN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2M
TEMPS AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 011125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KALY 011045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 010853
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNHSINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNHSINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNHSINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010633
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
233 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE MEAGER
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010633
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
233 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE MEAGER
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MRNG...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCNL GUST POSSIBLE
THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LAT
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MRNG...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCNL GUST POSSIBLE
THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LAT
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MRNG...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCNL GUST POSSIBLE
THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LAT
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MRNG...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCNL GUST POSSIBLE
THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LAT
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010343
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEENS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE
LESS EXTENSIVE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010343
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEENS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE
LESS EXTENSIVE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010343
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEENS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE
LESS EXTENSIVE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010343
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEENS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE
LESS EXTENSIVE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010219
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH CONDS IMPROVING
TO MVFR AND THEN VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDS ON WED.

N WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE NW 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN DEVELOP TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC/DS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010219
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH CONDS IMPROVING
TO MVFR AND THEN VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDS ON WED.

N WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE NW 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN DEVELOP TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010219
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH CONDS IMPROVING
TO MVFR AND THEN VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDS ON WED.

N WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE NW 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN DEVELOP TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010219
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH CONDS IMPROVING
TO MVFR AND THEN VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDS ON WED.

N WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE NW 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN DEVELOP TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC/DS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT WE GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH. KAVP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS
THEY WILL LINGER WITH AN MVFR DECK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID EVENING.

OVERNIGHT, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING A
RISK OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO TAF SITES HOWEVER THINKING IS THIS
LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED CIGS AND THUS REMAIN
VFR. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS CONTINUING FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...SOME RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MSE/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT WE GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH. KAVP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS
THEY WILL LINGER WITH AN MVFR DECK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID EVENING.

OVERNIGHT, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING A
RISK OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO TAF SITES HOWEVER THINKING IS THIS
LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED CIGS AND THUS REMAIN
VFR. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS CONTINUING FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...SOME RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MSE/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT WE GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH. KAVP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS
THEY WILL LINGER WITH AN MVFR DECK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID EVENING.

OVERNIGHT, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING A
RISK OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO TAF SITES HOWEVER THINKING IS THIS
LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED CIGS AND THUS REMAIN
VFR. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS CONTINUING FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...SOME RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MSE/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT WE GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH. KAVP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS
THEY WILL LINGER WITH AN MVFR DECK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID EVENING.

OVERNIGHT, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING A
RISK OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO TAF SITES HOWEVER THINKING IS THIS
LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED CIGS AND THUS REMAIN
VFR. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS CONTINUING FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...SOME RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MSE/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL