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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181512
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1012 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REVISED THE CLOUD COVER FCST BASED OBSERVED AND LATEST
PAR/HRRR/LAMP/NARRE-TL GUIDANCE. STRATO-CUMULUS SHOULD HANG ON MOST
OF THE DAY TO THE NW. BASICALLY SKC FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF CT
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. THE THE AMOUNT OF STRATO CU DIMINISHES THIS
AFTN. WORDED FCST FOR NYC CAME OUT PARTLY SUNNY...BUT THINKING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

MAX TEMPS A TAD WARMER OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE.

WINDS REMAIN NW GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PCPN AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.  VFR THROUGH TAF
PERIOD

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SOME VARIABILITY OF NW WIND
DIRECTION 30-40 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR WET SNOW.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN SCA WIND
GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDS ON THE OCEAN
MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
THE END TIME AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE
W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PCPN WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 181512
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1012 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REVISED THE CLOUD COVER FCST BASED OBSERVED AND LATEST
PAR/HRRR/LAMP/NARRE-TL GUIDANCE. STRATO-CUMULUS SHOULD HANG ON MOST
OF THE DAY TO THE NW. BASICALLY SKC FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF CT
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. THE THE AMOUNT OF STRATO CU DIMINISHES THIS
AFTN. WORDED FCST FOR NYC CAME OUT PARTLY SUNNY...BUT THINKING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

MAX TEMPS A TAD WARMER OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE.

WINDS REMAIN NW GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PCPN AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.  VFR THROUGH TAF
PERIOD

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SOME VARIABILITY OF NW WIND
DIRECTION 30-40 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR WET SNOW.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN SCA WIND
GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDS ON THE OCEAN
MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
THE END TIME AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE
W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PCPN WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 181502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP COOL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIN MOISTURE
PROFILES AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE WEAK
LIFT FROM A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF -12C
WILL SUPPORT JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKES WILL
ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP COOL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIN MOISTURE
PROFILES AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE WEAK
LIFT FROM A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF -12C
WILL SUPPORT JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKES WILL
ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH






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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181458
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
958 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WRAP ARND MOISTURE ASSCTD WITH THE
CYCLONE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ADVECTING SEWRD ACRS NC NY. THIS WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WILL BE S AND E OF C NY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSDC. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ARND -6C TO -7C WITH LAKE SFC
WATER TEMPERATURES ARND +5C. THIS IS A MARGINAL SET UP SO NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. WENT FOR 1-3
INCHES ADDNL ACCUMULATION IN NRN ONEIDA CO. OTHERWISE AN INCH OR
LESS REST OF SNOW BELTS IN C NY. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE IN C NY OR NE PA EXPECTED. THERE WAS SOME MULTI BANDS COMING OFF
THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO ONEIDA CO AND FAR NRN ONONDAGA
CO/S. THIS ACVTY IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD BY AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN. IN ADDTN...SOME BNDRY LAYER HEATING WILL POP UP SOME SCT
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACRS MUCH OF C
NY AND FAR NE PA MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE MOST
OF C NY AND NE PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CLDS THRU THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE BEST SHOT FOR SOME CLRG WILL BE ACRS NE PA AND
SRN SULLIVAN CO...ESP FROM AVP-MSV AND POINTS S AND E BY TONIGHT. THE
WINDS TURN MORE NRLY LATER TONIGHT AND HENCE EXPECT FLURRIES IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY THE
INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS OUT
ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z CANADIAN,
WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL, SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY ABANDONED MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK
WAVE THAT TRAVERSES WSW TO ENE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO WHILE
KEEPING FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST /CANADIAN STILL HAS A SCANT POSSIBILITY/.
THUS DRY WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...OUTER EDGE OF WEAK
COASTAL SYSTEM STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MON NGT-TUE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AND COLD AIR DAMMING AT SURFACE...COULD INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEN COME WEDNESDAY...FOR NOW
WE APPEAR TO BE ON WARMER SIDE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM...WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW/MAIN SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLOGENESIS OF SECONDARY LOW AS IT HEADS SOMEWHERE UP MIDATLANTIC
TO NORTHEAST REGIONS. RAIN APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AS MENTIONED BELOW...A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR
DECK IN ITS WAKE. IN THE CASE OF KBGM-KSYR-KRME-KITH...FUEL ALT
MVFR CIG OR ON ITS WAY THERE. SCT -SHSN MAINLY FROM LAKE EFFECT
THIS MORNING KRME-KSYR...AND THEN LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
COMBINED LAKE MOISTURE PLUS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE /EXCEPT KAVP/.
ASSOCIATED VIS RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY ONLY LIMITED TO MVFR RANGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOWNESS OF CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT ROBUST ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH. HOWEVER...TEMPO IFR VIS GROUPS FOR KITH DUE TO
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE AT TIME OF MORE ENHANCED
MOISTURE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND KSYR ROUGHLY SAME TIME
WITH MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WNW TO NW WINDS TODAY...GUSTING
UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S KTS...THEN SLACKENING LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD TO
8-12 KTS SUSTAINED. MVFR CIG TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL
TERMINALS...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KBGM-KRME-KITH WITH SOME POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF IFR CIG AND A FLURRY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181458
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
958 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WRAP ARND MOISTURE ASSCTD WITH THE
CYCLONE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ADVECTING SEWRD ACRS NC NY. THIS WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WILL BE S AND E OF C NY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSDC. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ARND -6C TO -7C WITH LAKE SFC
WATER TEMPERATURES ARND +5C. THIS IS A MARGINAL SET UP SO NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. WENT FOR 1-3
INCHES ADDNL ACCUMULATION IN NRN ONEIDA CO. OTHERWISE AN INCH OR
LESS REST OF SNOW BELTS IN C NY. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE IN C NY OR NE PA EXPECTED. THERE WAS SOME MULTI BANDS COMING OFF
THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO ONEIDA CO AND FAR NRN ONONDAGA
CO/S. THIS ACVTY IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD BY AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN. IN ADDTN...SOME BNDRY LAYER HEATING WILL POP UP SOME SCT
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACRS MUCH OF C
NY AND FAR NE PA MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE MOST
OF C NY AND NE PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CLDS THRU THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE BEST SHOT FOR SOME CLRG WILL BE ACRS NE PA AND
SRN SULLIVAN CO...ESP FROM AVP-MSV AND POINTS S AND E BY TONIGHT. THE
WINDS TURN MORE NRLY LATER TONIGHT AND HENCE EXPECT FLURRIES IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY THE
INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS OUT
ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z CANADIAN,
WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL, SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY ABANDONED MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK
WAVE THAT TRAVERSES WSW TO ENE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO WHILE
KEEPING FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST /CANADIAN STILL HAS A SCANT POSSIBILITY/.
THUS DRY WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...OUTER EDGE OF WEAK
COASTAL SYSTEM STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MON NGT-TUE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AND COLD AIR DAMMING AT SURFACE...COULD INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEN COME WEDNESDAY...FOR NOW
WE APPEAR TO BE ON WARMER SIDE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM...WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW/MAIN SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLOGENESIS OF SECONDARY LOW AS IT HEADS SOMEWHERE UP MIDATLANTIC
TO NORTHEAST REGIONS. RAIN APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AS MENTIONED BELOW...A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR
DECK IN ITS WAKE. IN THE CASE OF KBGM-KSYR-KRME-KITH...FUEL ALT
MVFR CIG OR ON ITS WAY THERE. SCT -SHSN MAINLY FROM LAKE EFFECT
THIS MORNING KRME-KSYR...AND THEN LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
COMBINED LAKE MOISTURE PLUS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE /EXCEPT KAVP/.
ASSOCIATED VIS RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY ONLY LIMITED TO MVFR RANGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOWNESS OF CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT ROBUST ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH. HOWEVER...TEMPO IFR VIS GROUPS FOR KITH DUE TO
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE AT TIME OF MORE ENHANCED
MOISTURE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND KSYR ROUGHLY SAME TIME
WITH MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WNW TO NW WINDS TODAY...GUSTING
UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S KTS...THEN SLACKENING LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD TO
8-12 KTS SUSTAINED. MVFR CIG TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL
TERMINALS...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KBGM-KRME-KITH WITH SOME POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF IFR CIG AND A FLURRY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 948 AM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
TODAY AS LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW-
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR
NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 948 AM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
TODAY AS LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW-
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR
NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 181432
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REVISED THE CLOUD COVER FCST BASED OBSERVED AND LATEST
PAR/HRRR/LAMP/NARRE-TL GUIDANCE. STRATO-CUMULUS SHOULD HANG ON MOST
OF THE DAY TO THE NW. BASICALLY SKC FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF CT
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. THE THE AMOUNT OF STRATO CU DIMINISHES THIS
AFTN. WORDED FCST FOR NYC CAME OUT PARTLY SUNNY...BUT THINKING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

MAX TEMPS A TAD WARMER OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE.

WINDS REMAIN NW GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PCPN AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.  VFR THROUGH TAF
PERIOD

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SOME VARIABILITY OF NW WIND
DIRECTION 30-40 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF
AND MAINLY RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX INTERIOR FOR THE MORNING WITH
OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN SCA WIND
GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDS ON THE OCEAN
MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
THE END TIME AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE
W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PCPN WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD/JM
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181432
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REVISED THE CLOUD COVER FCST BASED OBSERVED AND LATEST
PAR/HRRR/LAMP/NARRE-TL GUIDANCE. STRATO-CUMULUS SHOULD HANG ON MOST
OF THE DAY TO THE NW. BASICALLY SKC FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF CT
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. THE THE AMOUNT OF STRATO CU DIMINISHES THIS
AFTN. WORDED FCST FOR NYC CAME OUT PARTLY SUNNY...BUT THINKING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

MAX TEMPS A TAD WARMER OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE.

WINDS REMAIN NW GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PCPN AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.  VFR THROUGH TAF
PERIOD

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SOME VARIABILITY OF NW WIND
DIRECTION 30-40 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF
AND MAINLY RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX INTERIOR FOR THE MORNING WITH
OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN SCA WIND
GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDS ON THE OCEAN
MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
THE END TIME AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE
W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PCPN WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD/JM
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 181149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK. CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW.
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKES WILL
ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SAME HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK. CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW.
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKES WILL
ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SAME HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 181149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK. CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW.
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKES WILL
ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SAME HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING NEAR KGON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS TODAY.

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF
AND MAINLY RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX INTERIOR FOR THE MORNING WITH
OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 181147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING NEAR KGON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS TODAY.

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF
AND MAINLY RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX INTERIOR FOR THE MORNING WITH
OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING NEAR KGON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS TODAY.

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF
AND MAINLY RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX INTERIOR FOR THE MORNING WITH
OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 181147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING NEAR KGON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS TODAY.

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF
AND MAINLY RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX INTERIOR FOR THE MORNING WITH
OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181141
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO SOME NVA, WHICH IS
CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING HEAVY, WITH A PERSISTENT MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT, SCT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WITH AN
INVERSION UNDER 5,000 FEET, VERY MARGINAL TEMPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT, AND LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (-10C
TO -20C) NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY THE
INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS OUT
ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z CANADIAN,
WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL, SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY ABANDONED MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK
WAVE THAT TRAVERSES WSW TO ENE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO WHILE
KEEPING FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST /CANADIAN STILL HAS A SCANT POSSIBILITY/.
THUS DRY WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...OUTER EDGE OF WEAK
COASTAL SYSTEM STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MON NGT-TUE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AND COLD AIR DAMMING AT SURFACE...COULD INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEN COME WEDNESDAY...FOR NOW
WE APPEAR TO BE ON WARMER SIDE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM...WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW/MAIN SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLOGENESIS OF SECONDARY LOW AS IT HEADS SOMEWHERE UP MIDATLANTIC
TO NORTHEAST REGIONS. RAIN APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AS MENTIONED BELOW...A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR
DECK IN ITS WAKE. IN THE CASE OF KBGM-KSYR-KRME-KITH...FUEL ALT
MVFR CIG OR ON ITS WAY THERE. SCT -SHSN MAINLY FROM LAKE EFFECT
THIS MORNING KRME-KSYR...AND THEN LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
COMBINED LAKE MOISTURE PLUS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE /EXCEPT KAVP/.
ASSOCIATED VIS RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY ONLY LIMITED TO MVFR RANGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOWNESS OF CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT ROBUST ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH. HOWEVER...TEMPO IFR VIS GROUPS FOR KITH DUE TO
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE AT TIME OF MORE ENHANCED
MOISTURE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND KSYR ROUGHLY SAME TIME
WITH MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WNW TO NW WINDS TODAY...GUSTING
UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S KTS...THEN SLACKENING LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD TO
8-12 KTS SUSTAINED. MVFR CIG TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL
TERMINALS...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KBGM-KRME-KITH WITH SOME POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF IFR CIG AND A FLURRY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 181130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181033
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
533 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING FOR A FEW TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TODAY.

WIND DIRECTION AROUND 300 MAGNETIC TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS 25-30 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181033
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
533 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING FOR A FEW TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TODAY.

WIND DIRECTION AROUND 300 MAGNETIC TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS 25-30 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KALY 180932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 180932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 180914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
992 MB LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER ABOUT
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING FOR A FEW TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TODAY.

WIND DIRECTION AROUND 300 MAGNETIC TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS 25-30 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KOKX 180914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
992 MB LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER ABOUT
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING FOR A FEW TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TODAY.

WIND DIRECTION AROUND 300 MAGNETIC TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS 25-30 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KOKX 180914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
992 MB LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER ABOUT
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E.

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING FOR A FEW TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TODAY.

WIND DIRECTION AROUND 300 MAGNETIC TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS 25-30 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBGM 180851
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO SOME NVA, WHICH IS
CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING HEAVY, WITH A PERSISTENT MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT, SCT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WITH AN
INVERSION UNDER 5,000 FEET, VERY MARGINAL TEMPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT, AND LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (-10C
TO -20C) NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY THE
INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS OUT
ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z CANADIAN,
WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL, SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY ABANDONED MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK
WAVE THAT TRAVERSES WSW TO ENE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO WHILE
KEEPING FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST /CANADIAN STILL HAS A SCANT POSSIBILITY/.
THUS DRY WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...OUTER EDGE OF WEAK
COASTAL SYSTEM STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MON NGT-TUE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AND COLD AIR DAMMING AT SURFACE...COULD INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEN COME WEDNESDAY...FOR NOW
WE APPEAR TO BE ON WARMER SIDE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM...WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW/MAIN SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLOGENESIS OF SECONDARY LOW AS IT HEADS SOMEWHERE UP MIDATLANTIC
TO NORTHEAST REGIONS. RAIN APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AS MENTIONED BELOW...A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH
ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF -SHSN FOR THE
TERMINALS INCLUDING TEMPO IFR VIS FOR SEVERAL. BEYOND 10Z...WAVE
WILL BE ALREADY ZIPPING AWAY...WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR DECK
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD /EXCEPT KAVP
PROBABLY LOSING IT TOWARDS 00Z/. IN MOST CASES...FUEL ALT MVFR
CIG. AS FOR -SHSN...WITH WAVE GONE IT BECOMES SIMPLY A QUESTION OF
LAKE EFFECT PLACEMENT...AND KSYR WILL BE MOST FAVORED. ALSO...KITH
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE TO GENERATE -SHSN WITH IFR VIS. OTHER
TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP COULD GET A FLURRY PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME
TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD LAYER SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
FLUFFIER DENDRITE FLAKES...AND THUS PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS VERY
MUCH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 180851
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO SOME NVA, WHICH IS
CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING HEAVY, WITH A PERSISTENT MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT, SCT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WITH AN
INVERSION UNDER 5,000 FEET, VERY MARGINAL TEMPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT, AND LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (-10C
TO -20C) NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY THE
INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS OUT
ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z CANADIAN,
WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL, SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY ABANDONED MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK
WAVE THAT TRAVERSES WSW TO ENE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO WHILE
KEEPING FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST /CANADIAN STILL HAS A SCANT POSSIBILITY/.
THUS DRY WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...OUTER EDGE OF WEAK
COASTAL SYSTEM STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MON NGT-TUE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AND COLD AIR DAMMING AT SURFACE...COULD INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEN COME WEDNESDAY...FOR NOW
WE APPEAR TO BE ON WARMER SIDE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM...WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW/MAIN SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLOGENESIS OF SECONDARY LOW AS IT HEADS SOMEWHERE UP MIDATLANTIC
TO NORTHEAST REGIONS. RAIN APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AS MENTIONED BELOW...A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH
ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF -SHSN FOR THE
TERMINALS INCLUDING TEMPO IFR VIS FOR SEVERAL. BEYOND 10Z...WAVE
WILL BE ALREADY ZIPPING AWAY...WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR DECK
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD /EXCEPT KAVP
PROBABLY LOSING IT TOWARDS 00Z/. IN MOST CASES...FUEL ALT MVFR
CIG. AS FOR -SHSN...WITH WAVE GONE IT BECOMES SIMPLY A QUESTION OF
LAKE EFFECT PLACEMENT...AND KSYR WILL BE MOST FAVORED. ALSO...KITH
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE TO GENERATE -SHSN WITH IFR VIS. OTHER
TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP COULD GET A FLURRY PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME
TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD LAYER SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
FLUFFIER DENDRITE FLAKES...AND THUS PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS VERY
MUCH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180851
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO SOME NVA, WHICH IS
CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING HEAVY, WITH A PERSISTENT MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT, SCT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WITH AN
INVERSION UNDER 5,000 FEET, VERY MARGINAL TEMPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT, AND LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (-10C
TO -20C) NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY THE
INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS OUT
ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z CANADIAN,
WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL, SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY ABANDONED MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK
WAVE THAT TRAVERSES WSW TO ENE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO WHILE
KEEPING FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST /CANADIAN STILL HAS A SCANT POSSIBILITY/.
THUS DRY WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...OUTER EDGE OF WEAK
COASTAL SYSTEM STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MON NGT-TUE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AND COLD AIR DAMMING AT SURFACE...COULD INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEN COME WEDNESDAY...FOR NOW
WE APPEAR TO BE ON WARMER SIDE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM...WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW/MAIN SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLOGENESIS OF SECONDARY LOW AS IT HEADS SOMEWHERE UP MIDATLANTIC
TO NORTHEAST REGIONS. RAIN APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AS MENTIONED BELOW...A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH
ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF -SHSN FOR THE
TERMINALS INCLUDING TEMPO IFR VIS FOR SEVERAL. BEYOND 10Z...WAVE
WILL BE ALREADY ZIPPING AWAY...WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR DECK
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD /EXCEPT KAVP
PROBABLY LOSING IT TOWARDS 00Z/. IN MOST CASES...FUEL ALT MVFR
CIG. AS FOR -SHSN...WITH WAVE GONE IT BECOMES SIMPLY A QUESTION OF
LAKE EFFECT PLACEMENT...AND KSYR WILL BE MOST FAVORED. ALSO...KITH
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE TO GENERATE -SHSN WITH IFR VIS. OTHER
TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP COULD GET A FLURRY PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME
TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD LAYER SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
FLUFFIER DENDRITE FLAKES...AND THUS PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS VERY
MUCH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 180851
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO SOME NVA, WHICH IS
CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING HEAVY, WITH A PERSISTENT MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT, SCT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WITH AN
INVERSION UNDER 5,000 FEET, VERY MARGINAL TEMPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT, AND LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (-10C
TO -20C) NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY THE
INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS OUT
ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z CANADIAN,
WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL, SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY ABANDONED MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK
WAVE THAT TRAVERSES WSW TO ENE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO WHILE
KEEPING FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST /CANADIAN STILL HAS A SCANT POSSIBILITY/.
THUS DRY WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...OUTER EDGE OF WEAK
COASTAL SYSTEM STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MON NGT-TUE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AND COLD AIR DAMMING AT SURFACE...COULD INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEN COME WEDNESDAY...FOR NOW
WE APPEAR TO BE ON WARMER SIDE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM...WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW/MAIN SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLOGENESIS OF SECONDARY LOW AS IT HEADS SOMEWHERE UP MIDATLANTIC
TO NORTHEAST REGIONS. RAIN APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AS MENTIONED BELOW...A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH
ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF -SHSN FOR THE
TERMINALS INCLUDING TEMPO IFR VIS FOR SEVERAL. BEYOND 10Z...WAVE
WILL BE ALREADY ZIPPING AWAY...WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR DECK
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD /EXCEPT KAVP
PROBABLY LOSING IT TOWARDS 00Z/. IN MOST CASES...FUEL ALT MVFR
CIG. AS FOR -SHSN...WITH WAVE GONE IT BECOMES SIMPLY A QUESTION OF
LAKE EFFECT PLACEMENT...AND KSYR WILL BE MOST FAVORED. ALSO...KITH
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE TO GENERATE -SHSN WITH IFR VIS. OTHER
TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP COULD GET A FLURRY PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME
TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD LAYER SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
FLUFFIER DENDRITE FLAKES...AND THUS PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS VERY
MUCH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AS OF 08Z WITH LITTLE TO THE WEST. CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING
CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD
REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AS OF 08Z WITH LITTLE TO THE WEST. CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING
CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD
REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AS OF 08Z WITH LITTLE TO THE WEST. CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING
CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD
REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AS OF 08Z WITH LITTLE TO THE WEST. CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING
CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD
REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AS OF 08Z WITH LITTLE TO THE WEST. CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING
CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD
REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HAVING A
LESSENING EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH REACHES TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...BACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EARLIER DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WAS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSED EASTWARD WITH A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THIS REGION OF LIFT...COLDER CLOUD TOPS...HAS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AS OF 08Z WITH LITTLE TO THE WEST. CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ARE -12C TO -14C WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO FORM SEEDING
CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR LIGHT SNOW BELOW. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A BROAD
REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS.

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180602
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
102 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF PCPN HAS WEAKENED ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. UPR LVL S/WV IS NOW
ROTATING INTO WRN NY AND BRINGING STEEPENING MID-LVL LR TO THE
REGION. THIS ADDED LIFT COMBINED WITH LK MOISTURE WL SERVE TO
INCRS CVRG OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTION OF OVRNGT IN 290-300 FLOW
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THAT OVRNGT SNOW ACCUMS ARND 1.5 INCHES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPR
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ONLY MINOR CHGS MADE TO POPS WITH NO OTHER
CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT NEPA WL STAY CLDY BUT VRY
LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO ZONES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH
ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF -SHSN FOR THE
TERMINALS INCLUDING TEMPO IFR VIS FOR SEVERAL. BEYOND 10Z...WAVE
WILL BE ALREADY ZIPPING AWAY...WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR DECK
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD /EXCEPT KAVP
PROBABLY LOSING IT TOWARDS 00Z/. IN MOST CASES...FUEL ALT MVFR
CIG. AS FOR -SHSN...WITH WAVE GONE IT BECOMES SIMPLY A QUESTION OF
LAKE EFFECT PLACEMENT...AND KSYR WILL BE MOST FAVORED. ALSO...KITH
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE TO GENERATE -SHSN WITH IFR VIS. OTHER
TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP COULD GET A FLURRY PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME
TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD LAYER SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
FLUFFIER DENDRITE FLAKES...AND THUS PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS VERY
MUCH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180602
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
102 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF PCPN HAS WEAKENED ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. UPR LVL S/WV IS NOW
ROTATING INTO WRN NY AND BRINGING STEEPENING MID-LVL LR TO THE
REGION. THIS ADDED LIFT COMBINED WITH LK MOISTURE WL SERVE TO
INCRS CVRG OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTION OF OVRNGT IN 290-300 FLOW
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THAT OVRNGT SNOW ACCUMS ARND 1.5 INCHES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPR
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ONLY MINOR CHGS MADE TO POPS WITH NO OTHER
CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT NEPA WL STAY CLDY BUT VRY
LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO ZONES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH
ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF -SHSN FOR THE
TERMINALS INCLUDING TEMPO IFR VIS FOR SEVERAL. BEYOND 10Z...WAVE
WILL BE ALREADY ZIPPING AWAY...WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR DECK
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD /EXCEPT KAVP
PROBABLY LOSING IT TOWARDS 00Z/. IN MOST CASES...FUEL ALT MVFR
CIG. AS FOR -SHSN...WITH WAVE GONE IT BECOMES SIMPLY A QUESTION OF
LAKE EFFECT PLACEMENT...AND KSYR WILL BE MOST FAVORED. ALSO...KITH
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE TO GENERATE -SHSN WITH IFR VIS. OTHER
TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP COULD GET A FLURRY PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME
TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD LAYER SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
FLUFFIER DENDRITE FLAKES...AND THUS PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS VERY
MUCH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KALY 180559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. POPS WERE INCREASED AND EXPANDED WITH
PREVIOUS UPDATE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE. HAVE LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN HERE AT THE
OFFICE WITH 37 DEGREES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30
MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE CHANNELED WEST/EAST
VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS LOOKS TO FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN INITIALLY AS
THE SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT FIRST. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH
KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON THURSDAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 180559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. POPS WERE INCREASED AND EXPANDED WITH
PREVIOUS UPDATE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE. HAVE LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN HERE AT THE
OFFICE WITH 37 DEGREES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30
MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE CHANNELED WEST/EAST
VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS LOOKS TO FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN INITIALLY AS
THE SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT FIRST. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH
KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON THURSDAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180558
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 180558
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
FROM LAKE ONTARIO DOWN INTO NW OHIO. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. COULD ALSO POSSIBLY MIX WITH FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND OF LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND
THEY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THU. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 07-08Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

GENERALLY VFR THU INTO THU EVE WITH SCT-BKN CIGS OF 3500-4000FT. LOW
PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE THU NIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 180544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
FROM LAKE ONTARIO DOWN INTO NW OHIO. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. COULD ALSO POSSIBLY MIX WITH FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND OF LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND
THEY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THU. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 07-08Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

GENERALLY VFR THU INTO THU EVE WITH SCT-BKN CIGS OF 3500-4000FT. LOW
PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.LATE THU NIGHT...VFR.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND
RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR
REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND
RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR
REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBUF 180423
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPLY DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
NONETHELESS WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW REMAIN IN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE FOCUS BEING MAINLY ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS/HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE LAKES WITH ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
BUFFALO-ROCHESTER CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT COATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS
WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE
RIGHT AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE BRISK WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL IN
TURN CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES AS WELL AS THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180423
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPLY DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
NONETHELESS WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW REMAIN IN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE FOCUS BEING MAINLY ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS/HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE LAKES WITH ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
BUFFALO-ROCHESTER CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT COATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS
WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE
RIGHT AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE BRISK WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL IN
TURN CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES AS WELL AS THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180423
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPLY DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
NONETHELESS WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW REMAIN IN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE FOCUS BEING MAINLY ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS/HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE LAKES WITH ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
BUFFALO-ROCHESTER CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT COATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS
WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE
RIGHT AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE BRISK WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL IN
TURN CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES AS WELL AS THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180423
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPLY DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
NONETHELESS WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW REMAIN IN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE FOCUS BEING MAINLY ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS/HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE LAKES WITH ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
BUFFALO-ROCHESTER CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT COATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS
WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE
RIGHT AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE BRISK WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO WNY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ IN THE
06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER SATURATION WILL NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP MAY STAY IN THE FORM
OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STEEPENING INVERSION AROUND 3KFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL IN
TURN CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES AS WELL AS THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KOKX 180247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
FROM LAKE ONTARIO DOWN INTO NW OHIO. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. COULD ALSO POSSIBLY MIX WITH FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND OF LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND
THEY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...SCT-
BKN 035-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS KGON THROUGH 04Z. THEN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 05-07Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING. GUSTS THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING. BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS
INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MALOIT/JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 180247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
FROM LAKE ONTARIO DOWN INTO NW OHIO. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. COULD ALSO POSSIBLY MIX WITH FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND OF LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND
THEY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...SCT-
BKN 035-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS KGON THROUGH 04Z. THEN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 05-07Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING. GUSTS THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING. BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS
INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MALOIT/JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
936 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM
WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST KEEPING WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS
OUR REGION. WHILE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING
ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY
LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST
WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO
PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILES INTERACT WITH BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW
INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND
RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR
REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 180236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
936 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM
WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST KEEPING WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS
OUR REGION. WHILE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING
ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY
LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST
WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO
PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILES INTERACT WITH BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW
INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND
RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR
REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KBUF 180104
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
804 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO BE A BLUSTERY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK COURTESY OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND A DECENT
GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY OF A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS SFC-850 DELTA-TS ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE. IN ADDITION...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SNOWFALL RATES PICKING UP JUST UPSTREAM
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
ALOFT CUTTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE BUFFALO METRO AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS AS THIS AREA MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE FOCUS BEING MAINLY ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS/HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE LAKES WITH ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
BUFFALO-ROCHESTER CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY AS WE MOVE LATER INTO THE
NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE RIGHT AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK
WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE BRISK WIND
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL KEEP PLENTY MVFR
CIGS...WITH IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LIGHT -SHRASN WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SHSN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO COOL BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ AFTER 06Z AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
SATURATION WILL NEAR ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP
MAY STAY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL IN
TURN CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES AS WELL AS THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF PCPN HAS WEAKENED ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. UPR LVL S/WV IS NOW
ROTATING INTO WRN NY AND BRINGING STEEPENING MID-LVL LR TO THE
REGION. THIS ADDED LIFT COMBINED WITH LK MOISTURE WL SERVE TO
INCRS CVRG OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTION OF OVRNGT IN 290-300 FLOW
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THAT OVRNGT SNOW ACCUMS ARND 1.5 INCHES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPR
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ONLY MINOR CHGS MADE TO POPS WITH NO OTHER
CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT NEPA WL STAY CLDY BUT VRY
LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO ZONES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND SOME LAKE EFFECT.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS, WE EXPECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
MOST PERSISTENT FOR KSYR AND KRME. KRME SHOULD SEE MAINLY IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. KSYR
SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD GO IFR VISBYS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW IF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT THE AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH, STEADIER PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND WE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISBYS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR KELM, KITH, AND KBGM WHILE KAVP REMAINS VFR.


OUTLOOK...

THUR NIGHT TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF PCPN HAS WEAKENED ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. UPR LVL S/WV IS NOW
ROTATING INTO WRN NY AND BRINGING STEEPENING MID-LVL LR TO THE
REGION. THIS ADDED LIFT COMBINED WITH LK MOISTURE WL SERVE TO
INCRS CVRG OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTION OF OVRNGT IN 290-300 FLOW
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THAT OVRNGT SNOW ACCUMS ARND 1.5 INCHES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPR
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ONLY MINOR CHGS MADE TO POPS WITH NO OTHER
CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT NEPA WL STAY CLDY BUT VRY
LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO ZONES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND SOME LAKE EFFECT.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS, WE EXPECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
MOST PERSISTENT FOR KSYR AND KRME. KRME SHOULD SEE MAINLY IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. KSYR
SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD GO IFR VISBYS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW IF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT THE AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH, STEADIER PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND WE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISBYS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR KELM, KITH, AND KBGM WHILE KAVP REMAINS VFR.


OUTLOOK...

THUR NIGHT TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF PCPN HAS WEAKENED ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. UPR LVL S/WV IS NOW
ROTATING INTO WRN NY AND BRINGING STEEPENING MID-LVL LR TO THE
REGION. THIS ADDED LIFT COMBINED WITH LK MOISTURE WL SERVE TO
INCRS CVRG OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTION OF OVRNGT IN 290-300 FLOW
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THAT OVRNGT SNOW ACCUMS ARND 1.5 INCHES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPR
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ONLY MINOR CHGS MADE TO POPS WITH NO OTHER
CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT NEPA WL STAY CLDY BUT VRY
LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO ZONES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND SOME LAKE EFFECT.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS, WE EXPECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
MOST PERSISTENT FOR KSYR AND KRME. KRME SHOULD SEE MAINLY IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. KSYR
SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD GO IFR VISBYS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW IF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT THE AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH, STEADIER PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND WE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISBYS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR KELM, KITH, AND KBGM WHILE KAVP REMAINS VFR.


OUTLOOK...

THUR NIGHT TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180019
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL KEEP PLENTY MVFR
CIGS...WITH IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LIGHT -SHRASN WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SHSN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO COOL BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ AFTER 06Z AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
SATURATION WILL NEAR ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP
MAY STAY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180019
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL KEEP PLENTY MVFR
CIGS...WITH IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LIGHT -SHRASN WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SHSN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO COOL BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ AFTER 06Z AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
SATURATION WILL NEAR ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP
MAY STAY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180019
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL KEEP PLENTY MVFR
CIGS...WITH IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LIGHT -SHRASN WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SHSN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO COOL BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ AFTER 06Z AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
SATURATION WILL NEAR ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP
MAY STAY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180019
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL KEEP PLENTY MVFR
CIGS...WITH IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LIGHT -SHRASN WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SHSN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO COOL BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL EVEN FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO -FZDZ AFTER 06Z AS MID-LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE DIMINISH
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
SATURATION WILL NEAR ENOUGH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT PRECIP
MAY STAY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. EITHER WAY...PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY
TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KOKX 172358
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
658 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKE. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE BY LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SHOULD
HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...SCT-
BKN 040-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z AND KGON
THROUGH 02Z. THEN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
THESE SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 05-07Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 290 TO 320 MAGNETIC ON
THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 300 TO 330
MAGNETIC ON THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 290 TO 320 MAGNETIC ON
THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING. GUSTS THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 172358
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
658 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKE. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE BY LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SHOULD
HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...SCT-
BKN 040-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z AND KGON
THROUGH 02Z. THEN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
THESE SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 05-07Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 290 TO 320 MAGNETIC ON
THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 300 TO 330
MAGNETIC ON THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 290 TO 320 MAGNETIC ON
THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING. GUSTS THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW









000
FXUS61 KBGM 172338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE LATE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND SOME LAKE EFFECT.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS, WE EXPECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
MOST PERSISTENT FOR KSYR AND KRME. KRME SHOULD SEE MAINLY IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. KSYR
SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD GO IFR VISBYS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW IF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT THE AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH, STEADIER PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND WE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISBYS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR KELM, KITH, AND KBGM WHILE KAVP REMAINS VFR.


OUTLOOK...

THUR NIGHT TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC






000
FXUS61 KBTV 172338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO
BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC
FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY
OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-
CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH
SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR,
WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND
RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR
REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 172324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO
BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC
FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY
OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-
CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH
SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR,
WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 172324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO
BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC
FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY
OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-
CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH
SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR,
WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 172146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATABASE...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE FROM ALBANY NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS
IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 172146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATABASE...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE FROM ALBANY NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS
IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL







000
FXUS61 KBGM 172145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
445 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE LATE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPTIATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHNACEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURNIG THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS NEXT 24 HOURS.

CAA WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW. GETTING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SFC LOW IS WELL
NE NEAR OTTAWA. PRECIP STILL IN NY BUT LIFTING NORTH SO THAT ONLY
SYR AND RME WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS AND BE MAINLY DRY. IMPROVEMENT THU MORN
TO VFR. BGM NOW HAS IFR CIGS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR LATE
TODAY AS THE STEADIER PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. ITH LOW MVFR NOW AND
TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR THU MORN.

AVP SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AND DRY.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW
WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 KTS THEN THU 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 172145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
445 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE LATE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPTIATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHNACEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURNIG THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS NEXT 24 HOURS.

CAA WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW. GETTING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SFC LOW IS WELL
NE NEAR OTTAWA. PRECIP STILL IN NY BUT LIFTING NORTH SO THAT ONLY
SYR AND RME WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS AND BE MAINLY DRY. IMPROVEMENT THU MORN
TO VFR. BGM NOW HAS IFR CIGS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR LATE
TODAY AS THE STEADIER PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. ITH LOW MVFR NOW AND
TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR THU MORN.

AVP SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AND DRY.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW
WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 KTS THEN THU 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 172057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND
JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER MAV
MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WARM
WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...PRIMARILY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PCPN. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN AND TAKES A
TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE
STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK
AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...MAINLY BKN040
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT WITH AN ISOLD
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THAT SHOULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
TO KTEB/KLGA/KHPN/KISP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET.
THESE CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO BKN060 THIS EVENING...REMAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
LATE...THEN SCATTER OUT AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OUT EAST AT KGON/KBDR/KISP.

W-NW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE
OF 20 KT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS SHOULD BACK
MORE WESTERLY AND BRIEFLY DECREASE AGAIN BY ABOUT 10-11Z...THEN PICK
UP BY 14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 13-18G20-25KT...DIMINISHING
TO 10-15G15-20KT BY EVENING.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 35 KT OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVY CONDS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 172057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND
JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER MAV
MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WARM
WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...PRIMARILY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PCPN. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN AND TAKES A
TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE
STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK
AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...MAINLY BKN040
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT WITH AN ISOLD
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THAT SHOULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
TO KTEB/KLGA/KHPN/KISP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET.
THESE CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO BKN060 THIS EVENING...REMAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
LATE...THEN SCATTER OUT AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OUT EAST AT KGON/KBDR/KISP.

W-NW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE
OF 20 KT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS SHOULD BACK
MORE WESTERLY AND BRIEFLY DECREASE AGAIN BY ABOUT 10-11Z...THEN PICK
UP BY 14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 13-18G20-25KT...DIMINISHING
TO 10-15G15-20KT BY EVENING.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 35 KT OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVY CONDS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 172057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND
JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER MAV
MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WARM
WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...PRIMARILY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PCPN. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN AND TAKES A
TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE
STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK
AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...MAINLY BKN040
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT WITH AN ISOLD
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THAT SHOULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
TO KTEB/KLGA/KHPN/KISP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET.
THESE CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO BKN060 THIS EVENING...REMAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
LATE...THEN SCATTER OUT AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OUT EAST AT KGON/KBDR/KISP.

W-NW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE
OF 20 KT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS SHOULD BACK
MORE WESTERLY AND BRIEFLY DECREASE AGAIN BY ABOUT 10-11Z...THEN PICK
UP BY 14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 13-18G20-25KT...DIMINISHING
TO 10-15G15-20KT BY EVENING.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 35 KT OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVY CONDS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 172057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND
JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER MAV
MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WARM
WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...PRIMARILY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT
PCPN. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN AND TAKES A
TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE
STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK
AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...MAINLY BKN040
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT WITH AN ISOLD
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THAT SHOULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
TO KTEB/KLGA/KHPN/KISP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET.
THESE CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO BKN060 THIS EVENING...REMAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
LATE...THEN SCATTER OUT AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OUT EAST AT KGON/KBDR/KISP.

W-NW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE
OF 20 KT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS SHOULD BACK
MORE WESTERLY AND BRIEFLY DECREASE AGAIN BY ABOUT 10-11Z...THEN PICK
UP BY 14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 13-18G20-25KT...DIMINISHING
TO 10-15G15-20KT BY EVENING.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 35 KT OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVY CONDS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KALY 172050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE
FIRST ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 172050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE
FIRST ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 172047
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVENING WHILE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR INTO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND CHANCES OF SNOW WILL LOWER LATER
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND REDUCED
VIS/CIG REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARD LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 172047
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVENING WHILE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR INTO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND CHANCES OF SNOW WILL LOWER LATER
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND REDUCED
VIS/CIG REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARD LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 172039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK
IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY,
PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR
LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW.
OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH SO THINKING A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE
HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK
IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY,
PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR
LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW.
OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH SO THINKING A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE
HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBUF 172029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVENING WHILE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR INTO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND CHANCES OF SNOW WILL LOWER LATER
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND REDUCED
VIS/CIG REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARD LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 172029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THROUGH
10KFT PER BUFKIT PROFILES WILL THIN TO DOWN AROUND 5KFT OVERNIGHT.
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK AT 3PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKENING LIFT WILL BRING REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
SOME UPSLOPING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
THINNING MOISTURE. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5KFT DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO -8C TO -10C. OVERALL EXPECT JUST 1-3 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD ADVECTION
HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW NEARLY ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 5KFT WITH WEAK LIFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOP
TEMPS DO NOT REACH COLDER THAN -10C THEN THE PTYPE MAY JUST END UP
BEING SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN AN NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING AN INVERSION JUST BELOW 5K FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
AND BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -10C...WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO
FORM AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IF CLOUD TOPS
ARE ANY WARMER...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BECOME A CONCERN SINCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE INVERSION WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR COLDER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE LINGERING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE BENEATH IT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS.
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVENING WHILE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR INTO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND CHANCES OF SNOW WILL LOWER LATER
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND REDUCED
VIS/CIG REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARD LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 172015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE LATE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPTIATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHNACEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURNIG THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS NEXT 24 HOURS.

CAA WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW. GETTING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SFC LOW IS WELL
NE NEAR OTTAWA. PRECIP STILL IN NY BUT LIFTING NORTH SO THAT ONLY
SYR AND RME WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS AND BE MAINLY DRY. IMPROVEMENT THU MORN
TO VFR. BGM NOW HAS IFR CIGS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR LATE
TODAY AS THE STEADIER PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. ITH LOW MVFR NOW AND
TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR THU MORN.

AVP SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AND DRY.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW
WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 KTS THEN THU 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 172015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE LATE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPTIATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHNACEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURNIG THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS NEXT 24 HOURS.

CAA WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW. GETTING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SFC LOW IS WELL
NE NEAR OTTAWA. PRECIP STILL IN NY BUT LIFTING NORTH SO THAT ONLY
SYR AND RME WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS AND BE MAINLY DRY. IMPROVEMENT THU MORN
TO VFR. BGM NOW HAS IFR CIGS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR LATE
TODAY AS THE STEADIER PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. ITH LOW MVFR NOW AND
TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR THU MORN.

AVP SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AND DRY.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW
WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 KTS THEN THU 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 171853
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BINGHAMTON AND SYRACUSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 AM... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING
STEADY FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IN OUR
AREA HAS BEEN ALL RAIN THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST
INDICATE A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT OLE/ELZ AND BFD IN SW NY
/ NW PA AND THIS TREND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN STEUBEN COUNTY PROBABLY
SEEING SNOW BY NOON. FALLING TEMPERATURES INDICATED BY LATEST RAP
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE AS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS BELOW.

AT 430 AM LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWERS 40S.

SFC LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRACK ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WEAKEN AS A SECONDARY LOW ALONG COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TRACKS ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE VCNTY BY LATE TODAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESIDE
OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION RESIDES ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC FEATURES
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY, DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. BY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
CWA WITH HIGH CHC REST OF CENTRAL NY AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FAR SE.

MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM
NYS TO NOVA SCOTIA WITH SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. T85 NEVER DROPS ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTION FORM LAKE ONTARIO ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ONTARIO PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS ONONDAGA, ONEIDA, MADISON,
CORTLAND AND CHENANGO COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE DECREASES ALONG WITH A
LOWERING INVERSION THEREFORE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MAXES
ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT SKIES WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO PARTY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS NEXT 24 HOURS.

CAA WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW. GETTING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SFC LOW IS WELL
NE NEAR OTTAWA. PRECIP STILL IN NY BUT LIFTING NORTH SO THAT ONLY
SYR AND RME WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS AND BE MAINLY DRY. IMPROVEMENT THU MORN
TO VFR. BGM NOW HAS IFR CIGS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR LATE
TODAY AS THE STEADIER PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. ITH LOW MVFR NOW AND
TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR THU MORN.

AVP SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AND DRY.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW
WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 KTS THEN THU 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 171853
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BINGHAMTON AND SYRACUSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 AM... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING
STEADY FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IN OUR
AREA HAS BEEN ALL RAIN THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST
INDICATE A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT OLE/ELZ AND BFD IN SW NY
/ NW PA AND THIS TREND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN STEUBEN COUNTY PROBABLY
SEEING SNOW BY NOON. FALLING TEMPERATURES INDICATED BY LATEST RAP
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE AS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS BELOW.

AT 430 AM LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWERS 40S.

SFC LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRACK ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WEAKEN AS A SECONDARY LOW ALONG COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TRACKS ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE VCNTY BY LATE TODAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESIDE
OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION RESIDES ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC FEATURES
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY, DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. BY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
CWA WITH HIGH CHC REST OF CENTRAL NY AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FAR SE.

MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM
NYS TO NOVA SCOTIA WITH SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. T85 NEVER DROPS ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTION FORM LAKE ONTARIO ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ONTARIO PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS ONONDAGA, ONEIDA, MADISON,
CORTLAND AND CHENANGO COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE DECREASES ALONG WITH A
LOWERING INVERSION THEREFORE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MAXES
ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT SKIES WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO PARTY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS NEXT 24 HOURS.

CAA WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW. GETTING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SFC LOW IS WELL
NE NEAR OTTAWA. PRECIP STILL IN NY BUT LIFTING NORTH SO THAT ONLY
SYR AND RME WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS AND BE MAINLY DRY. IMPROVEMENT THU MORN
TO VFR. BGM NOW HAS IFR CIGS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR LATE
TODAY AS THE STEADIER PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. ITH LOW MVFR NOW AND
TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR THU MORN.

AVP SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AND DRY.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW
WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 KTS THEN THU 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 171824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
124 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SLOWLY
DEPARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST
TRACK. MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARD US THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY.

FEWER CLOUDS SO FAR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...SO NEEDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMP FORECAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE MOST SPOTS END UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PVA MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS
LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OUR REGION.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WELL TO THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...GUSTY NW WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MIXED LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS ARE FORECAST. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS
IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED
OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO
FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE
COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60-40 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POP MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS
AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...BKN MAINLY
LOW-END VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR KSWF/KGON WHICH ARE STARTING OUT AT MVFR. THESE CIGS SHOULD
THEN LIFT TO 050-060 THIS EVENING...REMAIN INTO THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS LATE...THEN
SCATTER OUT AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO AS
WELL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OUT EAST AT KGON/KBDR/KISP.

W-NW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR
15-20G25-30KT ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE
WESTERLY AND BRIEFLY DECREASE AGAIN BY ABOUT 10-11Z...THEN PICK UP
BY 14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z.
BKN035 CIGS COULD ALSO TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 13-18G20-25KT...DIMINISHING
TO 10-15G15-20KT BY EVENING.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT...IS QUITE LOW...SO WILL NOT CONSIDER GALE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WAVE
WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKED REASONABLE...AND WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SCA CONDS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVY
CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 171824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
124 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SLOWLY
DEPARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST
TRACK. MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARD US THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY.

FEWER CLOUDS SO FAR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...SO NEEDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMP FORECAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE MOST SPOTS END UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PVA MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS
LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OUR REGION.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WELL TO THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...GUSTY NW WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MIXED LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS ARE FORECAST. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS
IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED
OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO
FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE
COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60-40 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POP MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS
AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...BKN MAINLY
LOW-END VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR KSWF/KGON WHICH ARE STARTING OUT AT MVFR. THESE CIGS SHOULD
THEN LIFT TO 050-060 THIS EVENING...REMAIN INTO THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS LATE...THEN
SCATTER OUT AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO AS
WELL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OUT EAST AT KGON/KBDR/KISP.

W-NW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR
15-20G25-30KT ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE
WESTERLY AND BRIEFLY DECREASE AGAIN BY ABOUT 10-11Z...THEN PICK UP
BY 14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO
BKN050 THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z.
BKN035 CIGS COULD ALSO TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 13-18G20-25KT...DIMINISHING
TO 10-15G15-20KT BY EVENING.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDS WITH LIGHT
PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO
RAIN THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT...IS QUITE LOW...SO WILL NOT CONSIDER GALE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WAVE
WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKED REASONABLE...AND WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SCA CONDS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVY
CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 171806
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
106 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING.
THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN STILL FOUND FROM ROCHESTER
EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT WITH THE COOLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A
MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP HERE CHANGING TO WET SNOW BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF
SNOW TODAY ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST CONDUCIVE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH
A SLUSHY INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FOUND
BENEATH THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROW ZONE SO THE WET NATURE OF THE
FLAKES WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
WET SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WNY TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLDER AIR WORKS EASTWARD. THE SNOW ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE LAKES. EXPECT
MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH IFR ONLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT WET
SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES AND THE NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171806
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
106 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING.
THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN STILL FOUND FROM ROCHESTER
EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT WITH THE COOLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A
MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP HERE CHANGING TO WET SNOW BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF
SNOW TODAY ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST CONDUCIVE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH
A SLUSHY INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FOUND
BENEATH THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROW ZONE SO THE WET NATURE OF THE
FLAKES WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
WET SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WNY TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLDER AIR WORKS EASTWARD. THE SNOW ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE LAKES. EXPECT
MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH IFR ONLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT WET
SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES AND THE NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171806
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
106 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING.
THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN STILL FOUND FROM ROCHESTER
EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT WITH THE COOLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A
MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP HERE CHANGING TO WET SNOW BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF
SNOW TODAY ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST CONDUCIVE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH
A SLUSHY INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FOUND
BENEATH THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROW ZONE SO THE WET NATURE OF THE
FLAKES WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
WET SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WNY TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLDER AIR WORKS EASTWARD. THE SNOW ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE LAKES. EXPECT
MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH IFR ONLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT WET
SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES AND THE NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171806
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
106 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING.
THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN STILL FOUND FROM ROCHESTER
EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT WITH THE COOLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A
MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP HERE CHANGING TO WET SNOW BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF
SNOW TODAY ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST CONDUCIVE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH
A SLUSHY INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FOUND
BENEATH THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROW ZONE SO THE WET NATURE OF THE
FLAKES WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
WET SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WNY TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLDER AIR WORKS EASTWARD. THE SNOW ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THIN
BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE LAKES. EXPECT
MOST SITES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH IFR ONLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE THIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT WET
SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
LAKES AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL GIVE
WAY TO A COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES AND THE NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE ABOVE PREVIOUS
MAX TEMP SO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT THERE, BUT AFTERNOON POPS AND
WX LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE HAS BEEN
MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE ABOVE PREVIOUS
MAX TEMP SO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT THERE, BUT AFTERNOON POPS AND
WX LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE HAS BEEN
MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST...STILL DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OTHER THAN KPOU WHICH WAS WAS MVFR. AN UPPER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A
BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUN NIGHT-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST...STILL DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OTHER THAN KPOU WHICH WAS WAS MVFR. AN UPPER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A
BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUN NIGHT-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 171657
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1157 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SLOWLY
DEPARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST
TRACK. MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARD US THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY.

FEWER CLOUDS SO FAR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...SO NEEDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMP FORECAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE MOST SPOTS END UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PVA MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS
LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OUR REGION.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WELL TO THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...GUSTY NW WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MIXED LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS ARE FORECAST. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS
IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED
OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO
FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE
COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60-40 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POP MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS
AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...EVENTUALLY SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

KGON/KISP ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STAYING OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-END VFR AS BKN
STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPS...BUT THERE COULD BE A PD OF MVFR CONDS
BEFORE 20Z. MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

WNW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS COULD
DROP OFF INTERMITTENTLY AT KSWF/KHPN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT...IS QUITE LOW...SO WILL NOT CONSIDER GALE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WAVE
WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKED REASONABLE...AND WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SCA CONDS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVY
CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW/JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 171657
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1157 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SLOWLY
DEPARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST
TRACK. MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARD US THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY.

FEWER CLOUDS SO FAR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...SO NEEDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMP FORECAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE MOST SPOTS END UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PVA MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS
LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OUR REGION.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WELL TO THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...GUSTY NW WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MIXED LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS ARE FORECAST. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS
IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED
OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO
FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE
COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60-40 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POP MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS
AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...EVENTUALLY SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

KGON/KISP ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STAYING OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-END VFR AS BKN
STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPS...BUT THERE COULD BE A PD OF MVFR CONDS
BEFORE 20Z. MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

WNW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS COULD
DROP OFF INTERMITTENTLY AT KSWF/KHPN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT...IS QUITE LOW...SO WILL NOT CONSIDER GALE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WAVE
WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKED REASONABLE...AND WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SCA CONDS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVY
CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW/JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 171657
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1157 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SLOWLY
DEPARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST
TRACK. MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARD US THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY.

FEWER CLOUDS SO FAR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...SO NEEDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMP FORECAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE MOST SPOTS END UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PVA MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS
LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OUR REGION.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WELL TO THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...GUSTY NW WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MIXED LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS ARE FORECAST. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS
IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED
OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO
FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE
COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60-40 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POP MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS
AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...EVENTUALLY SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

KGON/KISP ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STAYING OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-END VFR AS BKN
STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPS...BUT THERE COULD BE A PD OF MVFR CONDS
BEFORE 20Z. MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

WNW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS COULD
DROP OFF INTERMITTENTLY AT KSWF/KHPN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT...IS QUITE LOW...SO WILL NOT CONSIDER GALE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WAVE
WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKED REASONABLE...AND WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SCA CONDS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVY
CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW/JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 171657
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1157 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SLOWLY
DEPARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST
TRACK. MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARD US THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY.

FEWER CLOUDS SO FAR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...SO NEEDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMP FORECAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE MOST SPOTS END UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PVA MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS
LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OUR REGION.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WELL TO THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...GUSTY NW WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MIXED LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS ARE FORECAST. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS
IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED
OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO
FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE
COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60-40 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POP MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS
AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...EVENTUALLY SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

KGON/KISP ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STAYING OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-END VFR AS BKN
STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPS...BUT THERE COULD BE A PD OF MVFR CONDS
BEFORE 20Z. MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

WNW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS COULD
DROP OFF INTERMITTENTLY AT KSWF/KHPN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 18Z-20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SAT...
.THU...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT...IS QUITE LOW...SO WILL NOT CONSIDER GALE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WAVE
WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKED REASONABLE...AND WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SCA CONDS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVY
CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW/JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW






000
FXUS61 KALY 171636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 171636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KBGM 171527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1027 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BETWEEN BINGHAMTON AND SYRACUSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 AM... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING
STEADY FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IN OUR
AREA HAS BEEN ALL RAIN THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST INDICATE A
CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT OLE/ELZ AND BFD IN SW NY / NW PA AND
THIS TREND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN STEUBEN COUNTY PROBABLY SEEING SNOW BY
NOON. FALLING TEMPERATURES INDICATED BY LATEST RAP FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE AS PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS BELOW.

AT 430 AM LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWERS 40S.

SFC LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRACK ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WEAKEN AS A SECONDARY LOW ALONG COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TRACKS ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE VCNTY BY LATE TODAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESIDE
OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION RESIDES ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC FEATURES
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY, DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. BY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
CWA WITH HIGH CHC REST OF CENTRAL NY AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FAR SE.

MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM
NYS TO NOVA SCOTIA WITH SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. T85 NEVER DROPS ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTION FORM LAKE ONTARIO ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ONTARIO PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS ONONDAGA, ONEIDA, MADISON,
CORTLAND AND CHENANGO COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE DECREASES ALONG WITH A
LOWERING INVERSION THEREFORE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MAXES
ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT SKIES WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO PARTY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE..
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO STILL KEEP THE
COASTAL SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE MONDAY BY KEEPING
OUR AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT SOME MOISTURE MOVING
UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A WARM ONE, WITH THE INITIAL TRACK TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. EVENTUALLY ENOUGH COLD AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WE MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW VERY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH
THIS ONE PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS.

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WITH IT, THE HIGHER
THREAT FOR IFR CIGS. AT KBGM SOME IFR STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH 13Z IN LIGHT FOG, BUT NOT THE 1/4 SM FOG WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY. BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS TODAY WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 21Z. FOR NOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SNOW, I KEPT VSBYS IN MVFR. IF SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR VSBSY ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN NY TERMINALS.

WINDS TODAY VEERING INTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING, AND
WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KTS, BUT INCREASING
TO 10-15 BY LATE MORNING. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THUR TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 171519
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. TOWARDS CNY PLAIN RAIN CONTINUES WITH TEMPS
STILL HOVERING NEAR 40. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDES A BROAD
AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW TODAY
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH AN
INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. COLDER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE
DAY WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR KJHW WHERE IFR WILL LINGER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKES AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES AND THE NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171519
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. TOWARDS CNY PLAIN RAIN CONTINUES WITH TEMPS
STILL HOVERING NEAR 40. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDES A BROAD
AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW TODAY
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH AN
INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. COLDER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE
DAY WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR KJHW WHERE IFR WILL LINGER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKES AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES AND THE NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171519
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. TOWARDS CNY PLAIN RAIN CONTINUES WITH TEMPS
STILL HOVERING NEAR 40. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDES A BROAD
AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW TODAY
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH AN
INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. COLDER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE
DAY WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR KJHW WHERE IFR WILL LINGER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKES AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH LAKES AND THE NIAGARA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171519
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WET SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. TOWARDS CNY PLAIN RAIN CONTINUES WITH TEMPS
STILL HOVERING NEAR 40. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDES A BROAD
AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. ONLY EXPECT UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW TODAY
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL DIRECT THE REGIONS MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
OVER THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT. A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE 1-3 INCHES IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WITH AN
INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE.

PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO LOW ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND THE LOW 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND A
MODESTLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ONE LAST
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL ON THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET...JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL BENEFIT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMING
TO AN END. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ANEMIC LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
JUST SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE INVERSION REMAIN JUST COLD
ENOUGH AT -10C TO KEEP ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND PREVENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH NAM AND GFS
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO THE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. THIS HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE WITH WEAK FLOW AND A STEEPENING INVERSION WITH GRAY
OVERCAST SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER PUSH
OF DRYING MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY A STRONG TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.
THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE
NAO AND AO INDICES STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE
STRONG ZONAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT MID WINTER
COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COASTAL LOW TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. COLDER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE
DAY WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR KJHW WHERE IFR WILL LINGER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO