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000
FXUS64 KTSA 252002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

IT IS LATE OCTOBER BUT THAT FACT IS NOT READILY APPARENT BY THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OR THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR RECORD HEAT PREVAILS TODAY...WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SITES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
HIGHS TOMORROW.

PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...WITH THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BE IN
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CANEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR
BARTLESVILLE AS WELL. NAM HANDLED THIS MORNINGS FOG THE BEST...AND
ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING.
CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE LITTLE HINDRANCE TO THE WARM UP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS
IN MOST SPOTS...DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MORE THAN BALANCE THAT OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE THE PREFRONTAL WARM NOSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRICKY ON MONDAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MORNING
LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL OFFSET...AT
LEAST TO SOME EXTENT...PREFRONTAL WARMING EFFECTS. DESPITE THESE
COMPLICATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A
ZONE ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE FROM INTERSTATE 44 SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT MCALESTER AND
WILBURTON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THUNDER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL BUT NON ZERO. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MERIDIONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OF THE
SEASON SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND IF EXPECTATIONS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   59  88  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   63  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  90  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   57  86  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   59  84  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   60  89  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  87  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
F10   62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   61  87  60  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 251938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HEAT TO CONT ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE MORE
WIND AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY.
THIS WILL CONT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE ABIT TRICKY FOR MONDAY... AS MUCH OF AREA WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN BOTH TODAY
AND WHAT WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY. MODELS CONT TO DEPICT AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE
IS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE DRY SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THIS ONES WAKE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SFC HIGH COULD BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  88  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         60  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           58  91  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  89  63  83 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         63  87  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251739
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1239 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG W/ HIGH
RES GUIDANCE AGAIN FAVORING THE AR RIVER VALLEY FOR POTENTIALLY
MORE DENSE VISIBILITIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IN LOWEST LEVELS
OVER PAST 24 HRS...AND WITH FULL SUN THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPS TO BE MET THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST
FOR HOURLY TRENDS W/ A MINOR INCREASE IN TEMPS ACROSS FAR NE OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   83  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   85  59  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
F10   88  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   87  61  88  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251739
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1239 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG W/ HIGH
RES GUIDANCE AGAIN FAVORING THE AR RIVER VALLEY FOR POTENTIALLY
MORE DENSE VISIBILITIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IN LOWEST LEVELS
OVER PAST 24 HRS...AND WITH FULL SUN THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPS TO BE MET THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST
FOR HOURLY TRENDS W/ A MINOR INCREASE IN TEMPS ACROSS FAR NE OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   83  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   85  59  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
F10   88  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   87  61  88  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 251646
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AROUND 14/15Z SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. GUSTS OVER
20KTS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE 18Z.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHY MVFR WITH BR WILL OCCUR AT A FEW SITES...PARTICULARLY KLAW
AND KPNC...THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEEMED REASONABLE...THOUGH
THE 00Z METMOS/NAM12 APPEARED TO BE TOO HOT. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST MODELS SUGGESTED
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM12 SEEMED TO BE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD
QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MAY BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT HIGHS
MAY AGAIN BE NEAR RECORDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 25

OKLAHOMA CITY 87 1939/1891
WICHITA FALLS 92 1927

SUNDAY OCTOBER 26

OKLAHOMA CITY 92 1891
WICHITA FALLS 93 1950

MONDAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           90  56  91  56 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         89  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251646
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AROUND 14/15Z SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. GUSTS OVER
20KTS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE 18Z.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHY MVFR WITH BR WILL OCCUR AT A FEW SITES...PARTICULARLY KLAW
AND KPNC...THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEEMED REASONABLE...THOUGH
THE 00Z METMOS/NAM12 APPEARED TO BE TOO HOT. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST MODELS SUGGESTED
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM12 SEEMED TO BE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD
QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MAY BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT HIGHS
MAY AGAIN BE NEAR RECORDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 25

OKLAHOMA CITY 87 1939/1891
WICHITA FALLS 92 1927

SUNDAY OCTOBER 26

OKLAHOMA CITY 92 1891
WICHITA FALLS 93 1950

MONDAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           90  56  91  56 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         89  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251634
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IN LOWEST LEVELS
OVER PAST 24 HRS...AND WITH FULL SUN THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPS TO BE MET THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST
FOR HOURLY TRENDS W/ A MINOR INCREASE IN TEMPS ACROSS FAR NE OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   83  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   85  59  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
F10   88  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   87  61  88  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251634
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IN LOWEST LEVELS
OVER PAST 24 HRS...AND WITH FULL SUN THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPS TO BE MET THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST
FOR HOURLY TRENDS W/ A MINOR INCREASE IN TEMPS ACROSS FAR NE OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   83  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   85  59  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
F10   88  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   87  61  88  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KOUN 251115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHY MVFR WITH BR WILL OCCUR AT A FEW SITES...PARTICULARLY KLAW
AND KPNC...THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEEMED REASONABLE...THOUGH
THE 00Z METMOS/NAM12 APPEARED TO BE TOO HOT. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST MODELS SUGGESTED
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM12 SEEMED TO BE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD
QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MAY BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT HIGHS
MAY AGAIN BE NEAR RECORDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 25

OKLAHOMA CITY 87 1939/1891
WICHITA FALLS 92 1927

SUNDAY OCTOBER 26

OKLAHOMA CITY 92 1891
WICHITA FALLS 93 1950

MONDAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           90  56  91  56 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         89  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHY MVFR WITH BR WILL OCCUR AT A FEW SITES...PARTICULARLY KLAW
AND KPNC...THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEEMED REASONABLE...THOUGH
THE 00Z METMOS/NAM12 APPEARED TO BE TOO HOT. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST MODELS SUGGESTED
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM12 SEEMED TO BE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD
QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MAY BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT HIGHS
MAY AGAIN BE NEAR RECORDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 25

OKLAHOMA CITY 87 1939/1891
WICHITA FALLS 92 1927

SUNDAY OCTOBER 26

OKLAHOMA CITY 92 1891
WICHITA FALLS 93 1950

MONDAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           90  56  91  56 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         89  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KBVO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... PATCHY
FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LUCKILY MOST VEGETATION
HAS NOT CURED YET OR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE
THREAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM/BREEZY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY WITH FROPA. QPF AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
FRONTAL TIMING COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT BY MID WEEK
WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SE OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
..JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KBVO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... PATCHY
FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LUCKILY MOST VEGETATION
HAS NOT CURED YET OR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE
THREAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM/BREEZY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY WITH FROPA. QPF AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
FRONTAL TIMING COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT BY MID WEEK
WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SE OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
..JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 250819
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEEMED REASONABLE...THOUGH
THE 00Z METMOS/NAM12 APPEARED TO BE TOO HOT. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST MODELS SUGGESTED
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM12 SEEMED TO BE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD
QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MAY BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT HIGHS
MAY AGAIN BE NEAR RECORDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 25

OKLAHOMA CITY 87 1939/1891
WICHITA FALLS 92 1927

SUNDAY OCTOBER 26

OKLAHOMA CITY 92 1891
WICHITA FALLS 93 1950

MONDAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           90  56  91  56 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         89  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250806
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LUCKILY MOST VEGETATION
HAS NOT CURED YET OR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE
THREAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM/BREEZY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY WITH FROPA. QPF AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
FRONTAL TIMING COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT BY MID WEEK
WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SE OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  89  64 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   86  60  88  59 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   88  62  88  65 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   86  55  91  59 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   83  55  85  59 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   83  58  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   87  60  89  61 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   84  59  88  64 /   0  10   0  10
F10   88  61  89  63 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   87  61  88  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250452
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD AT KBVO...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATED PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 250349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250222
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATED PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 242315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 242301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT - TUES NIGHT.
TIMING: NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 TUES - TUES NIGHT.

COOLER W/ NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MID - LATE WEEK.

..CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS / YEAR

TULFSMFYV
10/2591/193988/195084/1950
10/2690/195090/189186/1950
10/2788/192287/199985/1950

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT - TUES NIGHT.
TIMING: NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 TUES - TUES NIGHT.

COOLER W/ NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MID - LATE WEEK.


...CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS / YEAR

TULFSMFYV
10/2591/193988/195084/1950
10/2690/195090/189186/1950
10/2788/192287/199985/1950


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL SITES MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MOVING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...KEEPING
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PER AREA SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING THE ONLY SKY COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM START THIS
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REMOVE THE FOG AND
ALSO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241641
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME FOG IN THE MORNING...BUT
NOTHING WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH NO DIRECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE...OR NEARLY
DENSE...FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOCIAL
MEDIA...AND INFERENCE FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL A MULTI-COUNTY AREA OF FOG REMAINING.
SOME OF THE FOG IS LIKELY DENSE. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF FOG...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE EDGES.
SIMILARLY...TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FOG AREA HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A MUCH SLOWER WARMUP THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP VISITILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL ABOUT 241500Z. OTHERWISE SOUTH WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 251200.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PER AREA SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING THE ONLY SKY COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM START THIS
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REMOVE THE FOG AND
ALSO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241529
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH NO DIRECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE...OR NEARLY
DENSE...FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOCIAL
MEDIA...AND INFERENCE FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL A MULTI-COUNTY AREA OF FOG REMAINING.
SOME OF THE FOG IS LIKELY DENSE. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF FOG...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE EDGES.
SIMILARLY...TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FOG AREA HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A MUCH SLOWER WARMUP THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP VISITILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL ABOUT 241500Z. OTHERWISE SOUTH WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 251200.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         86  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           88  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         82  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241030
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP VISITILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL ABOUT 241500Z. OTHERWISE SOUTH WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 251200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         86  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           88  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         82  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240818
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  61  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   80  57  86  60 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   82  59  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   82  53  89  55 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   76  54  84  54 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   76  59  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   81  58  87  60 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   81  58  86  60 /   0  10   0  10
F10   81  59  88  62 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   79  58  87  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 240735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES FINALLY
RETURN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY BRINING A FLEETING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HOWEVER, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         86  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           88  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         82  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240446
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
POTENTIAL MVFR FOG TAF SITES KBVO KRVS 08Z-14Z...GREATER
POTENTIAL FOG..WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TAF SITES KXNA KFYV 09Z-14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 240346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24/06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
A WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD VALUES THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         55  82  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24/06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
A WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD VALUES THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         55  82  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 232334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER RISK MVFR FOG
AT SITES KBVO KRVS KFYV KXNA KFSM IN 09Z-13Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY W/ NO
KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
APPEAR INHIBITORS TOWARD SVR WEATHER CHANCES THUS A LIMITED RISK
IS FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS FOR MID WEEK W/ NO KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 232313
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
607 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AT A FEW SITES
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
A WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD VALUES THIS
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE NUMBERS ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         55  82  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23




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