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000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLY TODAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...I
HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS FOR THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO REDEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS.
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO REDEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS.
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 162329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 15Z
TIMEFRAME...AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. SOME BKN MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
REDEVELOP AT KPNC...NORTH OF THE LINGERING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BECOMING GUSTY BY 15Z TO 16Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162107
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162107
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 162050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  92  69  86 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   67  89  69  85 /  20  20  30  40
MLC   68  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   65  92  67  85 /  10  10  30  30
FYV   64  85  65  81 /  10  40  50  40
BYV   63  84  63  78 /  20  60  50  40
MKO   67  89  69  84 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   65  88  66  83 /  20  60  50  40
F10   69  90  69  85 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   69  89  71  86 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 162050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  92  69  86 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   67  89  69  85 /  20  20  30  40
MLC   68  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   65  92  67  85 /  10  10  30  30
FYV   64  85  65  81 /  10  40  50  40
BYV   63  84  63  78 /  20  60  50  40
MKO   67  89  69  84 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   65  88  66  83 /  20  60  50  40
F10   69  90  69  85 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   69  89  71  86 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161827
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINED OVER
THE REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...LOW CEILINGS CONTINUED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE...WHILE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 80S. WILL SEND AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO
ADJUST AFTERNOON TEMPS SOME ACROSS THE CWA...TWEAK POP/WX GRIDS
AND CLEAN UP ANY MORNING WORDING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161827
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINED OVER
THE REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...LOW CEILINGS CONTINUED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE...WHILE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 80S. WILL SEND AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO
ADJUST AFTERNOON TEMPS SOME ACROSS THE CWA...TWEAK POP/WX GRIDS
AND CLEAN UP ANY MORNING WORDING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161725
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED TEMP GRIDS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG I-40 FOR WHERE
MORNING CLOUDINESS IS STARTING TO BREAK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

67/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 161516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   79  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   79  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161511 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         87  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 161511 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         87  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 161142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 160905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 160815
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   78  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 160815
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   84  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   79  64  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   78  62  81  64 /  20  20  50  40
BYV   74  61  78  63 /  20  20  60  50
MKO   82  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   76  63  83  66 /  20  20  50  50
F10   82  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   87  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 160446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. WHAT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR. SO FAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO BUILD INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM 09Z TO 14Z AT NEARLY
ALL TERMINALS. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...GREATER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUP OF ISOLD
TSRA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 18Z...WITH
LOW CIGS GRADUALLY CLEARING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. WHAT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR. SO FAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO BUILD INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM 09Z TO 14Z AT NEARLY
ALL TERMINALS. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...GREATER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUP OF ISOLD
TSRA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 18Z...WITH
LOW CIGS GRADUALLY CLEARING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 160440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT LIES NEAR I-44 THIS EVENING. ALSO SOME WEAK ECHOES
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-40. MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER
WHAT UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS IS VERY WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...REST OF FORECAST OKAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 160440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT LIES NEAR I-44 THIS EVENING. ALSO SOME WEAK ECHOES
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-40. MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER
WHAT UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS IS VERY WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...REST OF FORECAST OKAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 160229
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT LIES NEAR I-44 THIS EVENING. ALSO SOME WEAK ECHOES
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-40. MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER
WHAT UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS IS VERY WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...REST OF FORECAST OKAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  80  68  86 /  30  20  20  30
FSM   66  83  68  85 /  20  20  10  40
MLC   65  83  68  85 /  20  20  10  20
BVO   61  80  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
FYV   62  77  62  80 /  20  20  20  50
BYV   61  73  61  78 /  20  20  20  50
MKO   64  80  67  84 /  20  20  20  30
MIO   60  77  62  82 /  30  10  30  50
F10   64  81  67  86 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   68  86  69  85 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 160229
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT LIES NEAR I-44 THIS EVENING. ALSO SOME WEAK ECHOES
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-40. MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER
WHAT UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS IS VERY WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...REST OF FORECAST OKAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  80  68  86 /  30  20  20  30
FSM   66  83  68  85 /  20  20  10  40
MLC   65  83  68  85 /  20  20  10  20
BVO   61  80  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
FYV   62  77  62  80 /  20  20  20  50
BYV   61  73  61  78 /  20  20  20  50
MKO   64  80  67  84 /  20  20  20  30
MIO   60  77  62  82 /  30  10  30  50
F10   64  81  67  86 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   68  86  69  85 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99








000
FXUS64 KOUN 160151
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 160151
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 152345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 152345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STAYED WITH VCTS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA AREAS THIS EVENING
AS STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 152338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 152338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 152049
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  80  68  86 /  30  20  20  30
FSM   66  83  68  85 /  30  20  10  40
MLC   65  83  68  85 /  30  20  10  20
BVO   61  80  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
FYV   62  77  62  80 /  30  20  20  50
BYV   61  73  61  78 /  30  20  20  50
MKO   64  80  67  84 /  30  20  20  30
MIO   60  77  62  82 /  30  10  30  50
F10   64  81  67  86 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   68  86  69  85 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 152049
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  80  68  86 /  30  20  20  30
FSM   66  83  68  85 /  30  20  10  40
MLC   65  83  68  85 /  30  20  10  20
BVO   61  80  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
FYV   62  77  62  80 /  30  20  20  50
BYV   61  73  61  78 /  30  20  20  50
MKO   64  80  67  84 /  30  20  20  30
MIO   60  77  62  82 /  30  10  30  50
F10   64  81  67  86 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   68  86  69  85 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 152015
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 152015
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 151748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THE FRONT..NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
OVER MOST LOCATIONS INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
COVERAGE OF THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE MORNING RAINS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOME WHAT IN
CHECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND TO TWEAK TEMP GRIDS DOWN A BIT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   65  87  68  87 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   66  87  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
BVO   60  80  64  88 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   61  80  64  82 /  20  20  20  20
BYV   60  76  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   63  83  67  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIO   60  77  64  84 /  40  20  20  20
F10   64  84  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   67  88  68  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 151748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THE FRONT..NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
OVER MOST LOCATIONS INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
COVERAGE OF THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE MORNING RAINS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOME WHAT IN
CHECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND TO TWEAK TEMP GRIDS DOWN A BIT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   65  87  68  87 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   66  87  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
BVO   60  80  64  88 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   61  80  64  82 /  20  20  20  20
BYV   60  76  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   63  83  67  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIO   60  77  64  84 /  40  20  20  20
F10   64  84  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   67  88  68  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 151737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. VERY LOW CLOUDS/LOW VSBYS IN KS ARE UNLIKELY TO MOVE INTO
OK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS
MUCH OF OK/N TX OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABILITIES OF RAIN/STORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN TAF SITE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TAFS...UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AT KLAW AND KSPS AS THE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED RAIN
CHANCES AND OTHER ELEMENTS AS WELL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM NEAR
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR PAULS VALLEY...ARDMORE...ADA...AND ATOKA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BRING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...NEAR A LIBERAL TO TOPEKA
LINE AS OF 11 AM. THIS WILL ENTER HARPER COUNTY BY 1 PM...THEN
GET INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH LATEST HRRR
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT 2 TO 4 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR A WOODWARD TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE
GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 2 PM AS WELL. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO THE LACK
OF STRONG FORCING.

MORNING SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERN WINDS HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           87  59  83  64 /  30  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 151737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. VERY LOW CLOUDS/LOW VSBYS IN KS ARE UNLIKELY TO MOVE INTO
OK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS
MUCH OF OK/N TX OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABILITIES OF RAIN/STORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN TAF SITE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TAFS...UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AT KLAW AND KSPS AS THE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED RAIN
CHANCES AND OTHER ELEMENTS AS WELL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM NEAR
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR PAULS VALLEY...ARDMORE...ADA...AND ATOKA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BRING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...NEAR A LIBERAL TO TOPEKA
LINE AS OF 11 AM. THIS WILL ENTER HARPER COUNTY BY 1 PM...THEN
GET INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH LATEST HRRR
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT 2 TO 4 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR A WOODWARD TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE
GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 2 PM AS WELL. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO THE LACK
OF STRONG FORCING.

MORNING SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERN WINDS HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           87  59  83  64 /  30  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 151605 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED RAIN
CHANCES AND OTHER ELEMENTS AS WELL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM NEAR
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR PAULS VALLEY...ARDMORE...ADA...AND ATOKA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BRING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...NEAR A LIBERAL TO TOPEKA
LINE AS OF 11 AM. THIS WILL ENTER HARPER COUNTY BY 1 PM...THEN
GET INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH LATEST HRRR
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT 2 TO 4 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR A WOODWARD TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE
GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 2 PM AS WELL. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO THE LACK
OF STRONG FORCING.

MORNING SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERN WINDS HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  20  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  20  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  20  50  40  10
GAGE OK           87  59  83  64 /  30  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 151518
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1018 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
COVERAGE OF THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE MORNING RAINS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOME WHAT IN
CHECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND TO TWEAK TEMP GRIDS DOWN A BIT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  82  68 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   81  65  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
MLC   81  66  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   87  60  80  64 /  30  30  20  20
FYV   78  61  80  64 /  30  20  20  20
BYV   80  60  76  62 /  30  20  20  20
MKO   81  63  83  67 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   83  60  77  64 /  40  40  20  20
F10   81  64  84  68 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   82  67  88  68 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 151138
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           86  59  83  64 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 151138
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           86  59  83  64 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 151048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS E OK/NW AR WILL NOT CAUSE AN AVIATION
IMPACT THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NE OK JUST BEFORE 00Z...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA LIKELY LIMITED TO BVO/TUL/RVS. WILL CONTINUE THE
VCTS FOR THAT THREAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FG AND IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 151048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS E OK/NW AR WILL NOT CAUSE AN AVIATION
IMPACT THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NE OK JUST BEFORE 00Z...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA LIKELY LIMITED TO BVO/TUL/RVS. WILL CONTINUE THE
VCTS FOR THAT THREAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FG AND IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 151048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS E OK/NW AR WILL NOT CAUSE AN AVIATION
IMPACT THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NE OK JUST BEFORE 00Z...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA LIKELY LIMITED TO BVO/TUL/RVS. WILL CONTINUE THE
VCTS FOR THAT THREAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FG AND IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 151048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS E OK/NW AR WILL NOT CAUSE AN AVIATION
IMPACT THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NE OK JUST BEFORE 00Z...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA LIKELY LIMITED TO BVO/TUL/RVS. WILL CONTINUE THE
VCTS FOR THAT THREAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FG AND IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 150938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THIS RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY MEASURING A
TRACE. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITHIN
TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER WICHITA FALLS AT THIS TYPING.

LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK S/WV MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/SW OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, RESPECTIVELY. FAIRLY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS IN SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUES WITH GFS THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP AND WRF
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE. ECM APPEARS TO RESEMBLE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE. ECM AND GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NEXT WEEKEND...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. UNTIL THEN...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           86  59  83  64 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 150938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THIS RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY MEASURING A
TRACE. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITHIN
TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER WICHITA FALLS AT THIS TYPING.

LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK S/WV MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/SW OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, RESPECTIVELY. FAIRLY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS IN SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUES WITH GFS THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP AND WRF
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE. ECM APPEARS TO RESEMBLE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE. ECM AND GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NEXT WEEKEND...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. UNTIL THEN...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           86  59  83  64 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 150938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THIS RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY MEASURING A
TRACE. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITHIN
TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER WICHITA FALLS AT THIS TYPING.

LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK S/WV MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/SW OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, RESPECTIVELY. FAIRLY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS IN SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUES WITH GFS THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP AND WRF
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE. ECM APPEARS TO RESEMBLE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE. ECM AND GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NEXT WEEKEND...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. UNTIL THEN...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           86  59  83  64 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 150938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THIS RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY MEASURING A
TRACE. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITHIN
TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER WICHITA FALLS AT THIS TYPING.

LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK S/WV MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/SW OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, RESPECTIVELY. FAIRLY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS IN SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUES WITH GFS THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP AND WRF
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE. ECM APPEARS TO RESEMBLE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE. ECM AND GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NEXT WEEKEND...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. UNTIL THEN...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           86  59  83  64 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 150901
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  82  68 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   82  65  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
MLC   82  66  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   87  60  80  64 /  30  30  20  20
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
BYV   80  60  76  62 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   81  63  83  67 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   84  60  77  64 /  40  40  20  20
F10   82  64  84  68 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   84  67  88  68 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 150901
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  82  68 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   82  65  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
MLC   82  66  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   87  60  80  64 /  30  30  20  20
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
BYV   80  60  76  62 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   81  63  83  67 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   84  60  77  64 /  40  40  20  20
F10   82  64  84  68 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   84  67  88  68 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 150901
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  82  68 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   82  65  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
MLC   82  66  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   87  60  80  64 /  30  30  20  20
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
BYV   80  60  76  62 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   81  63  83  67 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   84  60  77  64 /  40  40  20  20
F10   82  64  84  68 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   84  67  88  68 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 150901
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  82  68 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   82  65  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
MLC   82  66  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   87  60  80  64 /  30  30  20  20
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
BYV   80  60  76  62 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   81  63  83  67 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   84  60  77  64 /  40  40  20  20
F10   82  64  84  68 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   84  67  88  68 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 150451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN THIS
REGIME AND COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME...SLIGHTLY BETTER ODDS WILL BE IN NW
ARKANSAS BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
SLIM UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES OK/KS BORDER LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROB30 INCLUDED AT BVO LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VCTS
AT TUL/RVS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 150451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN THIS
REGIME AND COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME...SLIGHTLY BETTER ODDS WILL BE IN NW
ARKANSAS BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
SLIM UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES OK/KS BORDER LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROB30 INCLUDED AT BVO LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VCTS
AT TUL/RVS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 150451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN THIS
REGIME AND COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME...SLIGHTLY BETTER ODDS WILL BE IN NW
ARKANSAS BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
SLIM UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES OK/KS BORDER LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROB30 INCLUDED AT BVO LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VCTS
AT TUL/RVS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 150451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN THIS
REGIME AND COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME...SLIGHTLY BETTER ODDS WILL BE IN NW
ARKANSAS BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
SLIM UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES OK/KS BORDER LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROB30 INCLUDED AT BVO LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VCTS
AT TUL/RVS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 150234
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK, BUT LARGE-SCALE
LIFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BEGIN TO RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE
RAIN LATER. IN GENERAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT A SLOWER FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  83  65  81 /  60  40  30  20
HOBART OK         65  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  83  68  85 /  40  20  30  30
GAGE OK           64  86  58  84 /  10  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  84  61  78 /  20  40  40  20
DURANT OK         66  83  69  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 150234
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK, BUT LARGE-SCALE
LIFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BEGIN TO RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE
RAIN LATER. IN GENERAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT A SLOWER FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  83  65  81 /  60  40  30  20
HOBART OK         65  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  83  68  85 /  40  20  30  30
GAGE OK           64  86  58  84 /  10  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  84  61  78 /  20  40  40  20
DURANT OK         66  83  69  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 150234
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK, BUT LARGE-SCALE
LIFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BEGIN TO RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE
RAIN LATER. IN GENERAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT A SLOWER FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  83  65  81 /  60  40  30  20
HOBART OK         65  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  83  68  85 /  40  20  30  30
GAGE OK           64  86  58  84 /  10  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  84  61  78 /  20  40  40  20
DURANT OK         66  83  69  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 150234
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK, BUT LARGE-SCALE
LIFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BEGIN TO RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE
RAIN LATER. IN GENERAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT A SLOWER FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  83  65  81 /  60  40  30  20
HOBART OK         65  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  83  68  85 /  40  20  30  30
GAGE OK           64  86  58  84 /  10  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  84  61  78 /  20  40  40  20
DURANT OK         66  83  69  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 150231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






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