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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291119
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
29/12Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENLY VFR THROUGH THE PD.
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESP AT SITES WHICH
HAD MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIP THIS MORNING HAS MAINLY MOVED EAST
OF TAF SITES...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO IMPACT SITES FROM N TX/SW OK NEWD
INTO NCNTRL OK AND WILL INCLUDE TSRA GROUPS AT THOSE SITES THIS AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST OK BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY...DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN EASTERN
SECTIONS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO NRN OK AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OK BORDER.

DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  70  92  71 /  50  40  20  10
HOBART OK         91  69  95  71 /  40  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  72  96  74 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           89  64  94  69 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  91  72 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  72 /  50  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291119
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
29/12Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENLY VFR THROUGH THE PD.
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESP AT SITES WHICH
HAD MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIP THIS MORNING HAS MAINLY MOVED EAST
OF TAF SITES...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO IMPACT SITES FROM N TX/SW OK NEWD
INTO NCNTRL OK AND WILL INCLUDE TSRA GROUPS AT THOSE SITES THIS AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST OK BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY...DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN EASTERN
SECTIONS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO NRN OK AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OK BORDER.

DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  70  92  71 /  50  40  20  10
HOBART OK         91  69  95  71 /  40  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  72  96  74 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           89  64  94  69 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  91  72 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  72 /  50  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/02


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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANY FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP / STORMS AS CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AFTER SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  60  50  20  10
FSM   91  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  20
MLC   90  73  90  72 /  50  40  30  10
BVO   88  69  92  69 /  60  50  10  10
FYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  30  10
BYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  40  20
MKO   87  71  90  71 /  60  50  30  10
MIO   85  70  89  70 /  60  50  30  10
F10   89  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  10
HHW   93  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANY FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP / STORMS AS CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AFTER SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  60  50  20  10
FSM   91  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  20
MLC   90  73  90  72 /  50  40  30  10
BVO   88  69  92  69 /  60  50  10  10
FYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  30  10
BYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  40  20
MKO   87  71  90  71 /  60  50  30  10
MIO   85  70  89  70 /  60  50  30  10
F10   89  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  10
HHW   93  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 290847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST OK BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY...DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN EASTERN
SECTIONS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO NRN OK AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OK BORDER.

DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  70  92  71 /  50  40  20  10
HOBART OK         91  69  95  71 /  40  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  72  96  74 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           89  64  94  69 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  91  72 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  72 /  50  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST OK BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY...DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN EASTERN
SECTIONS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO NRN OK AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OK BORDER.

DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  70  92  71 /  50  40  20  10
HOBART OK         91  69  95  71 /  40  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  72  96  74 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           89  64  94  69 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  91  72 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  72 /  50  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/02




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AFTER SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  60  50  20  20
FSM   91  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  20
MLC   90  73  90  72 /  50  40  30  10
BVO   88  69  92  69 /  60  50  10  20
FYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  30  20
BYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  40  20
MKO   87  71  90  71 /  60  50  30  10
MIO   85  70  89  70 /  60  50  30  20
F10   89  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  10
HHW   93  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AFTER SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  60  50  20  20
FSM   91  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  20
MLC   90  73  90  72 /  50  40  30  10
BVO   88  69  92  69 /  60  50  10  20
FYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  30  20
BYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  40  20
MKO   87  71  90  71 /  60  50  30  10
MIO   85  70  89  70 /  60  50  30  20
F10   89  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  10
HHW   93  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 290511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
BEST CHCS FOR TSRA WILL BE IN NRN OK AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES SLOWLY
E. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM KSPS NEWD INTO CNTRL OK...MAINLY
EARLY IN THE FCST PD. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND ON SHORT-RANGE MODEL PREDICTIONS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE
CHANGES INVOLVED HIGHER POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE RAIN PATTERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 / 100  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  90  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  80  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  80  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
BEST CHCS FOR TSRA WILL BE IN NRN OK AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES SLOWLY
E. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM KSPS NEWD INTO CNTRL OK...MAINLY
EARLY IN THE FCST PD. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND ON SHORT-RANGE MODEL PREDICTIONS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE
CHANGES INVOLVED HIGHER POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE RAIN PATTERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 / 100  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  90  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  80  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  80  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
BEST CHCS FOR TSRA WILL BE IN NRN OK AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES SLOWLY
E. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM KSPS NEWD INTO CNTRL OK...MAINLY
EARLY IN THE FCST PD. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND ON SHORT-RANGE MODEL PREDICTIONS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE
CHANGES INVOLVED HIGHER POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE RAIN PATTERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 / 100  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  90  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  80  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  80  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
BEST CHCS FOR TSRA WILL BE IN NRN OK AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES SLOWLY
E. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM KSPS NEWD INTO CNTRL OK...MAINLY
EARLY IN THE FCST PD. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND ON SHORT-RANGE MODEL PREDICTIONS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE
CHANGES INVOLVED HIGHER POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE RAIN PATTERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 / 100  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  90  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  80  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  80  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290458
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
FRIDAY... AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP FADED FAST AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN OK MUCH
AS SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED...AND SECOND SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL TREND OF GOING FORECAST
COVERS THIS FAIRLY WELL. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO REFLECT
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290458
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
FRIDAY... AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP FADED FAST AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN OK MUCH
AS SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED...AND SECOND SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL TREND OF GOING FORECAST
COVERS THIS FAIRLY WELL. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO REFLECT
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290228
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP FADED FAST AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN OK MUCH
AS SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED...AND SECOND SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL TREND OF GOING FORECAST
COVERS THIS FAIRLY WELL. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO REFLECT
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  70  70  40  20
FSM   74  90  73  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLC   74  89  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
BVO   69  87  68  91 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   67  86  70  86 /  30  60  60  40
BYV   68  86  70  86 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   72  87  72  89 /  50  70  40  40
MIO   72  86  70  88 /  40  70  50  30
F10   72  89  72  89 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   72  90  73  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99








000
FXUS64 KOUN 290056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND ON SHORT-RANGE MODEL PREDICTIONS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE
CHANGES INVOLVED HIGHER POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE RAIN PATTERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 / 100  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  90  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  80  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  80  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND ON SHORT-RANGE MODEL PREDICTIONS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE
CHANGES INVOLVED HIGHER POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE RAIN PATTERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 / 100  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  90  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  80  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  80  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO BANDS OF TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE AS THEY DRIFT
SLOWLY E THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER OK TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD
-RA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OK AND N
TX. THE RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE W TOMORROW
MORNING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AS TSRA NEAR/E OF I-44 IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TSRA...BUT AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT -RA OVERNIGHT MAY SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN BR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  70  70  40  20
FSM   74  90  73  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLC   74  89  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
BVO   69  87  68  91 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   67  86  70  86 /  30  60  60  40
BYV   68  86  70  86 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   72  87  72  89 /  40  70  40  40
MIO   72  86  70  88 /  30  70  50  30
F10   72  89  72  89 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   72  90  73  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  70  70  40  20
FSM   74  90  73  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLC   74  89  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
BVO   69  87  68  91 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   67  86  70  86 /  30  60  60  40
BYV   68  86  70  86 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   72  87  72  89 /  40  70  40  40
MIO   72  86  70  88 /  30  70  50  30
F10   72  89  72  89 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   72  90  73  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KOUN 281942
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281942
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281942
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281942
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW OK NEAR
AND SW OF CSM. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN/SPREAD NE/E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER AT GAG AND WWR...BUT
STILL FEEL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNSET THERE. ITS UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE TSRA WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  91 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         71  90  70  94 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  89  75  94 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           67  87  67  92 /  60  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  87  69  90 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  74  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/14/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW OK NEAR
AND SW OF CSM. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN/SPREAD NE/E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER AT GAG AND WWR...BUT
STILL FEEL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNSET THERE. ITS UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE TSRA WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  91 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         71  90  70  94 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  89  75  94 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           67  87  67  92 /  60  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  87  69  90 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  74  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/14/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
SOUTH SURFACE WIND 6-10KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 29/18Z.

LZK/55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
SOUTH SURFACE WIND 6-10KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 29/18Z.

LZK/55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
SOUTH SURFACE WIND 6-10KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 29/18Z.

LZK/55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
SOUTH SURFACE WIND 6-10KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 29/18Z.

LZK/55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281639 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  72  88  72 /  10  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /  10  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /  10  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /  10  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /  10  40  70  50
MIO   93  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /  10  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281639 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  72  88  72 /  10  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /  10  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /  10  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /  10  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /  10  40  70  50
MIO   93  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /  10  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 281527 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONT TO AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF FA
INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OK
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THEN SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z TO 20Z.
SHRA IN PROGRESS OVER WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY...AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS.
GREATER IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL COME LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME. INITIAL STORMS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREAFTER...A
COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX...AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS BY 12Z FRI.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PROLONGED IMPACTS TO VSBYS WILL BE
FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KCSM AND KHBR...NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS
LIFT OVER A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHERE FORCING AND RICHER MOISTURE RESIDE. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/STORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A THREAT OF
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS...EXPECT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT.

FROM EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS QUITE LOW...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE CONTINUING SLOW STORM MOTION AND RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY OF STRONGER STORM CELLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
HANDLED THE FRONTAL MOTION OR POSITION ALL THAT WELL OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HOT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH STALLS THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER...RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE VEERED SFC
WINDS...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER...VERY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  88  71 /  30  60  60  40
HOBART OK         93  71  90  70 /  60  60  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  89  75 /  30  50  50  40
GAGE OK           90  67  87  67 /  60  60  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  87  69 /  20  60  60  40
DURANT OK         94  74  91  74 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z TO 20Z.
SHRA IN PROGRESS OVER WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY...AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS.
GREATER IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL COME LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME. INITIAL STORMS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREAFTER...A
COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX...AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS BY 12Z FRI.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PROLONGED IMPACTS TO VSBYS WILL BE
FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KCSM AND KHBR...NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS
LIFT OVER A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHERE FORCING AND RICHER MOISTURE RESIDE. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/STORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A THREAT OF
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS...EXPECT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT.

FROM EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS QUITE LOW...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE CONTINUING SLOW STORM MOTION AND RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY OF STRONGER STORM CELLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
HANDLED THE FRONTAL MOTION OR POSITION ALL THAT WELL OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HOT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH STALLS THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER...RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE VEERED SFC
WINDS...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER...VERY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  88  71 /  30  60  60  40
HOBART OK         93  71  90  70 /  60  60  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  89  75 /  30  50  50  40
GAGE OK           90  67  87  67 /  70  60  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  87  69 /  20  60  60  40
DURANT OK         94  74  91  74 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z TO 20Z.
SHRA IN PROGRESS OVER WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY...AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS.
GREATER IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL COME LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME. INITIAL STORMS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREAFTER...A
COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX...AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS BY 12Z FRI.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PROLONGED IMPACTS TO VSBYS WILL BE
FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KCSM AND KHBR...NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS
LIFT OVER A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHERE FORCING AND RICHER MOISTURE RESIDE. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/STORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A THREAT OF
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS...EXPECT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT.

FROM EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS QUITE LOW...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE CONTINUING SLOW STORM MOTION AND RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY OF STRONGER STORM CELLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
HANDLED THE FRONTAL MOTION OR POSITION ALL THAT WELL OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HOT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH STALLS THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER...RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE VEERED SFC
WINDS...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER...VERY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  88  71 /  30  60  60  40
HOBART OK         93  71  90  70 /  60  60  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  89  75 /  30  50  50  40
GAGE OK           90  67  87  67 /  70  60  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  87  69 /  20  60  60  40
DURANT OK         94  74  91  74 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  73  88  72 /   0  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /   0  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /   0  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /   0  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /   0  40  70  50
MIO   92  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /   0  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 280845
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS
LIFT OVER A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHERE FORCING AND RICHER MOISTURE RESIDE. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/STORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A THREAT OF
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS...EXPECT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT.

FROM EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS QUITE LOW...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE CONTINUING SLOW STORM MOTION AND RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY OF STRONGER STORM CELLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
HANDLED THE FRONTAL MOTION OR POSITION ALL THAT WELL OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HOT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH STALLS THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER...RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE VEERED SFC
WINDS...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER...VERY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  88  71 /  30  60  60  40
HOBART OK         93  71  90  70 /  60  60  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  89  75 /  30  50  50  40
GAGE OK           90  67  87  67 /  70  60  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  87  69 /  20  60  60  40
DURANT OK         94  74  91  74 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280821
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  73  88  72 /   0  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /   0  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /   0  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /   0  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /   0  40  70  50
MIO   92  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /   0  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /   0  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280454
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER RA/TSRA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER W OK. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE IN W OK...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE CHAOTIC
DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY
FURTHER RA TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RA/TSRA
WILL BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SPREAD FROM W TO E. BY 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REACH OUR EASTERN TAF SITES:
KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND RA WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E OK JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E OK JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 280255
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION PHASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
MAKE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           70  88  66  88 / 100  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W EDGE OF OK THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY E WITH TIME. THE
TAFS INDICATE WHEN THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY...BUT DO NOT
PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT OTHER TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM W TO E FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  60  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 272311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 272123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  95  73  87 /   0   0  50  70
FSM   73  94  73  88 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   71  92  74  88 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   69  95  68  86 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   66  90  66  82 /  10   0  20  60
BYV   69  91  68  83 /   0   0  20  40
MKO   69  93  72  84 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   69  94  71  84 /  10   0  20  60
F10   71  93  71  87 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   70  93  73  90 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  95  73  87 /   0   0  50  70
FSM   73  94  73  88 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   71  92  74  88 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   69  95  68  86 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   66  90  66  82 /  10   0  20  60
BYV   69  91  68  83 /   0   0  20  40
MKO   69  93  72  84 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   69  94  71  84 /  10   0  20  60
F10   71  93  71  87 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   70  93  73  90 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THIS FORECAST.

KEPT LOW TO MODERATE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WONT BE HERE TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CUT OFF IN
THE 80S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES ONE LAST DAY OF MID
90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SET UP IN ONE OR MORE BANDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY EASTWARD. NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR A
FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT. KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANYTHING AFTER THAT YET.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  71  89 /  10  30  50  50
HOBART OK         73  93  70  90 /  20  50  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  50
GAGE OK           72  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  71  87 /  10  30  50  50
DURANT OK         72  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
NORTHWEST... HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT KGAG AND KWWR.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT KCSM AND KHBR /WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE/ BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271533 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271533 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NW PARTS OF THE FA.
DID ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH 10 PERCENT POPS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY CAUSE A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE WARM UP. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           89  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14



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