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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 192328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         34  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           28  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         39  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 192328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         34  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           28  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         39  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 192131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 192026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/AR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         34  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           28  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         39  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191749 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
SOME SITES ACROSS WRN OK MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. OVERALL... EXPECT ALL SITES TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING... WITH CHANCES
FOR MVFR AND IFR FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NOON AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  40  36  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         42  35  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           41  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     39  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/04/04



000
FXUS64 KTSA 191738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO LOW CEILING HEIGHTS
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/
NW AR. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS MODESTLY INCREASE...
BUT THAT MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 191738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO LOW CEILING HEIGHTS
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/
NW AR. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS MODESTLY INCREASE...
BUT THAT MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191650
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 191650
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 191615 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NOON AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  40  36  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         42  35  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           41  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     39  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191205
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191205
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 191058
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AT THE FAR NW AR TERMINALS...WITH XNA LIKELY TO BE MOST
AFFECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 191058
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AT THE FAR NW AR TERMINALS...WITH XNA LIKELY TO BE MOST
AFFECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191036
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191036
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  35  49  37 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   47  36  51  35 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   47  35  51  37 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   42  30  49  35 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   43  34  46  31 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   41  33  45  30 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   44  34  50  35 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   42  33  47  34 /  10  10   0  10
F10   44  33  50  37 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   49  39  51  37 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  35  49  37 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   47  36  51  35 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   47  35  51  37 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   42  30  49  35 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   43  34  46  31 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   41  33  45  30 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   44  34  50  35 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   42  33  47  34 /  10  10   0  10
F10   44  33  50  37 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   49  39  51  37 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  35  49  37 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   47  36  51  35 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   47  35  51  37 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   42  30  49  35 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   43  34  46  31 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   41  33  45  30 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   44  34  50  35 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   42  33  47  34 /  10  10   0  10
F10   44  33  50  37 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   49  39  51  37 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  35  49  37 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   47  36  51  35 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   47  35  51  37 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   42  30  49  35 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   43  34  46  31 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   41  33  45  30 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   44  34  50  35 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   42  33  47  34 /  10  10   0  10
F10   44  33  50  37 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   49  39  51  37 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190544
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS BETWEEN LIFR TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL LIFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL
SOUNDINS INDICATE CEILINGS TRYING TO LIFT BACK TO MVFR WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10   0
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 182333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   33  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   35  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   34  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   37  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   34  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   41  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 182111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   41  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   34  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   35  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   34  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   37  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   34  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   40  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   42  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181753 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE... BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181753 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE... BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181632
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181623
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181623
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181041
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181041
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  30  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180958
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  35  44  33 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   45  40  46  37 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   44  38  46  35 /  20  20  30  10
BVO   38  33  43  30 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   43  36  43  32 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   39  33  41  32 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   44  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   39  33  43  33 /  20  10  10  10
F10   43  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   46  42  48  38 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 180958
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  35  44  33 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   45  40  46  37 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   44  38  46  35 /  20  20  30  10
BVO   38  33  43  30 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   43  36  43  32 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   39  33  41  32 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   44  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   39  33  43  33 /  20  10  10  10
F10   43  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   46  42  48  38 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CARRY A MENTION FOR BVO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  50  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  70  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  60  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  70  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
MIO   32  40  35  41 /  60  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
HHW   36  50  44  48 /  60  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 180542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CARRY A MENTION FOR BVO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  50  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  70  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  60  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  70  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
MIO   32  40  35  41 /  60  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
HHW   36  50  44  48 /  60  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 18Z. MENTIONED
THESE CONDITIONS NEAR KHBR...KCSM...AND KWWR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AT ANY SITE AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

-DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA. -RAPL MAY OCCUR
NEAR KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC BEFORE 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHERN OK. THE WINTER PRECIP IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTORS THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THE QUICKER ENDING OF PRECIP IN SOME AREAS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG WORDING TO WX GRIDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SITES COULD APPROACH 100 FT CEILINGS AND 1/2 SM
VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 0 DEGREES C IN LOW LEVELS NORTH. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO ZERO... MAY SEE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT... BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WE MAY ALSO STILL SEE SOME SLEET
FARTHER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
PRECIP AREA... BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL NOT MENTION
SLEET IN THE ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




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