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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP FADING AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR & SOUTH
OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SUN BY
LATE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT I-44 ON NORTHWEST.         GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  40   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP FADING AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR & SOUTH
OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SUN BY
LATE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT I-44 ON NORTHWEST.         GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  40   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A BAND
OF RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS E OK AND W CNTRL AR ATTM. THE TAF SITES
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND...KRVS AND KFSM...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING
MVFR CONDITIONS OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MEANWHILE A SCT DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
THE SITE. AN IFR TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED TO COVER A BRIEF
IFR CIG POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY
18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES
TOWARD 12Z. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY
FURTHER.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 281120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT ONGOING SHRA TO DRIFT
SOUTH THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AS THIS AREA OF
SHRA MOVES SOUTH FROM KOKC/KOUN TO KLAW/KSPS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY AROUND 18Z TO 21Z AT
MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AM. AN ARC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS MORNING SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT COULD BE A WET COMMUTE...THOUGH
RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO
THE REGION.

FOLLOWING TODAY...A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET IN
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING A BIT EACH DAY. IT SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE WEEK...SO HOPEFULLY YOU GET A CHANCE TO GE OUT AND ENJOY THE
SPRING WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SUNDAY...AND LOOK TO
LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE SCALE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
EXIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE REFINED.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  73  48 /  70  10  10   0
HOBART OK         64  43  72  45 /  70  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  73  47 /  60  10   0  10
GAGE OK           66  39  73  43 /  30   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  44  75  46 /  30   0  10   0
DURANT OK         60  45  73  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT ONGOING SHRA TO DRIFT
SOUTH THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AS THIS AREA OF
SHRA MOVES SOUTH FROM KOKC/KOUN TO KLAW/KSPS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY AROUND 18Z TO 21Z AT
MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AM. AN ARC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS MORNING SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT COULD BE A WET COMMUTE...THOUGH
RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO
THE REGION.

FOLLOWING TODAY...A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET IN
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING A BIT EACH DAY. IT SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE WEEK...SO HOPEFULLY YOU GET A CHANCE TO GE OUT AND ENJOY THE
SPRING WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SUNDAY...AND LOOK TO
LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE SCALE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
EXIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE REFINED.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  73  48 /  70  10  10   0
HOBART OK         64  43  72  45 /  70  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  73  47 /  60  10   0  10
GAGE OK           66  39  73  43 /  30   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  44  75  46 /  30   0  10   0
DURANT OK         60  45  73  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT ONGOING SHRA TO DRIFT
SOUTH THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AS THIS AREA OF
SHRA MOVES SOUTH FROM KOKC/KOUN TO KLAW/KSPS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY AROUND 18Z TO 21Z AT
MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AM. AN ARC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS MORNING SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT COULD BE A WET COMMUTE...THOUGH
RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO
THE REGION.

FOLLOWING TODAY...A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET IN
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING A BIT EACH DAY. IT SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE WEEK...SO HOPEFULLY YOU GET A CHANCE TO GE OUT AND ENJOY THE
SPRING WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SUNDAY...AND LOOK TO
LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE SCALE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
EXIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE REFINED.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  73  48 /  70  10  10   0
HOBART OK         64  43  72  45 /  70  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  73  47 /  60  10   0  10
GAGE OK           66  39  73  43 /  30   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  44  75  46 /  30   0  10   0
DURANT OK         60  45  73  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280856
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280856
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280856
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280856
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280856
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 280827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AM. AN ARC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS MORNING SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT COULD BE A WET COMMUTE...THOUGH
RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO
THE REGION.

FOLLOWING TODAY...A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET IN
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING A BIT EACH DAY. IT SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE WEEK...SO HOPEFULLY YOU GET A CHANCE TO GE OUT AND ENJOY THE
SPRING WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SUNDAY...AND LOOK TO
LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE SCALE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
EXIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE REFINED.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  73  48 /  70  10  10   0
HOBART OK         64  43  72  45 /  70  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  73  47 /  60  10   0  10
GAGE OK           66  39  73  43 /  30   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  44  75  46 /  30   0  10   0
DURANT OK         60  45  73  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AM. AN ARC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS MORNING SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT COULD BE A WET COMMUTE...THOUGH
RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO
THE REGION.

FOLLOWING TODAY...A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET IN
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING A BIT EACH DAY. IT SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE WEEK...SO HOPEFULLY YOU GET A CHANCE TO GE OUT AND ENJOY THE
SPRING WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SUNDAY...AND LOOK TO
LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE SCALE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
EXIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE REFINED.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  73  48 /  70  10  10   0
HOBART OK         64  43  72  45 /  70  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  73  47 /  60  10   0  10
GAGE OK           66  39  73  43 /  30   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  44  75  46 /  30   0  10   0
DURANT OK         60  45  73  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 280437
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES. THE
GENERAL SITUATION...HOWEVER...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT E
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO THE RA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF N AND E OK AND PARTS OF N TX. AS IS TYPICAL OF A
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW...MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE AT NUMEROUS LEVELS
AND WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS WELL TO THE E.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY INCONSISTENT CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW...AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FG TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ARE DISTRIBUTED BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280437
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES. THE
GENERAL SITUATION...HOWEVER...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT E
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO THE RA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF N AND E OK AND PARTS OF N TX. AS IS TYPICAL OF A
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW...MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE AT NUMEROUS LEVELS
AND WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS WELL TO THE E.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY INCONSISTENT CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW...AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FG TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ARE DISTRIBUTED BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280437
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES. THE
GENERAL SITUATION...HOWEVER...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT E
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO THE RA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF N AND E OK AND PARTS OF N TX. AS IS TYPICAL OF A
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW...MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE AT NUMEROUS LEVELS
AND WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS WELL TO THE E.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY INCONSISTENT CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW...AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FG TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ARE DISTRIBUTED BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280437
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES. THE
GENERAL SITUATION...HOWEVER...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT E
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO THE RA THAT
COVERS MUCH OF N AND E OK AND PARTS OF N TX. AS IS TYPICAL OF A
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW...MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE AT NUMEROUS LEVELS
AND WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS WELL TO THE E.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY INCONSISTENT CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW...AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FG TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ARE DISTRIBUTED BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280227
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280227
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280227
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280227
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280227
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND WILL AFFECT MORE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE MORNING. ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECT TO BE LIGHT AND
THUNDER AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         45  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280213
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280213
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06








000
FXUS64 KOUN 272342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E
WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR
THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         44  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E
WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR
THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         44  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E
WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR
THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         44  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E
WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR
THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         44  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E
WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR
THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         44  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E
WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR
THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  73 /  80  40   0  10
HOBART OK         44  64  42  72 /  70  30   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  40   0   0
GAGE OK           39  66  40  74 / 100  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  67  44  75 /  80  20   0  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  72 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272007
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272007
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272007
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  47  74 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   48  60  44  73 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   49  59  46  72 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   45  67  44  75 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   45  60  40  69 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   45  60  43  69 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   47  62  44  71 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   45  65  44  72 /  50  20   0  10
F10   48  61  46  71 /  90  50  10  10
HHW   50  58  44  71 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  71 /  80  30  10  10
HOBART OK         44  64  43  71 /  70  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  30  10  10
GAGE OK           39  65  41  72 / 100  20   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     44  67  45  72 /  80  20  10  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.

BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  64  45  71 /  80  30  10  10
HOBART OK         44  64  43  71 /  70  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  63  44  72 /  60  30  10  10
GAGE OK           39  65  41  72 / 100  20   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     44  67  45  72 /  80  20  10  10
DURANT OK         49  61  45  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271757
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS, MAINTAINING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS UP THROUGH 00Z, WITH
MAINLY -DZ ACROSS TERMINALS KSPS AND KHBR. EXPECTING UPPER FORCING
TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR ANY CONVECTION, AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST, WITH -RA REMAINING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH FOG. AFTER SUNRISE AROUND 12Z, LOW
-RA POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS TO
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 / 100  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 / 100  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

06/04/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271757
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS, MAINTAINING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS UP THROUGH 00Z, WITH
MAINLY -DZ ACROSS TERMINALS KSPS AND KHBR. EXPECTING UPPER FORCING
TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR ANY CONVECTION, AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST, WITH -RA REMAINING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH FOG. AFTER SUNRISE AROUND 12Z, LOW
-RA POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS TO
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 / 100  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 / 100  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

06/04/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271757
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS, MAINTAINING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS UP THROUGH 00Z, WITH
MAINLY -DZ ACROSS TERMINALS KSPS AND KHBR. EXPECTING UPPER FORCING
TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR ANY CONVECTION, AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST, WITH -RA REMAINING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH FOG. AFTER SUNRISE AROUND 12Z, LOW
-RA POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS TO
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 / 100  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 / 100  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

06/04/67




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271726
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO VFR CATEGORIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE MUCH OF THE AREA BEING
RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AND HAS KEPT THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUS RAIN SHIELD FROM MOVING INTO FAR NE OK
AND NW AR. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THOSE AREAS...SO AT MOST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH 00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FURTHER WEST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS/LATEST GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FAR W-SW ZONES. MOST RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN TX. RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOMORROW FROM NW-SE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. THEREFORE...THIS
UPDATE WILL MOSTLY REFLECT FIRST PERIOD POP...QPF...DEWPOINT AND
SKY ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271726
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO VFR CATEGORIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE MUCH OF THE AREA BEING
RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AND HAS KEPT THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUS RAIN SHIELD FROM MOVING INTO FAR NE OK
AND NW AR. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THOSE AREAS...SO AT MOST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH 00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FURTHER WEST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS/LATEST GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FAR W-SW ZONES. MOST RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN TX. RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOMORROW FROM NW-SE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. THEREFORE...THIS
UPDATE WILL MOSTLY REFLECT FIRST PERIOD POP...QPF...DEWPOINT AND
SKY ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271541
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE MUCH OF THE AREA BEING
RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AND HAS KEPT THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUS RAIN SHIELD FROM MOVING INTO FAR NE OK
AND NW AR. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THOSE AREAS...SO AT MOST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH 00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FURTHER WEST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS/LATEST GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FAR W-SW ZONES. MOST RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN TX. RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOMORROW FROM NW-SE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. THEREFORE...THIS
UPDATE WILL MOSTLY REFLECT FIRST PERIOD POP...QPF...DEWPOINT AND
SKY ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271541
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE MUCH OF THE AREA BEING
RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AND HAS KEPT THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUS RAIN SHIELD FROM MOVING INTO FAR NE OK
AND NW AR. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THOSE AREAS...SO AT MOST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH 00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FURTHER WEST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS/LATEST GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FAR W-SW ZONES. MOST RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN TX. RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOMORROW FROM NW-SE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. THEREFORE...THIS
UPDATE WILL MOSTLY REFLECT FIRST PERIOD POP...QPF...DEWPOINT AND
SKY ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 271537
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. EXPECT RAIN WITH SOME STORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STILL ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR MAIN STEM
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST REMAINED RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT... BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS EAST WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS AREA OF CONCERN
REMAINS THE SAME. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT
A COOL DAY TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. SOME 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES OVER
AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 / 100  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 / 100  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271537
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. EXPECT RAIN WITH SOME STORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STILL ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR MAIN STEM
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST REMAINED RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT... BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS EAST WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS AREA OF CONCERN
REMAINS THE SAME. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT
A COOL DAY TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. SOME 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES OVER
AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 / 100  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 / 100  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. MUCH
OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND LOW-MID LVL WAA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS...POSSIBLY THE NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST WITH TIME
TODAY/TONIGHT INTO OUR AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT DOWN IN TX. THE FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...IN THE MCALESTER AREA...AND NEAR COLLINSVILLE
AS WELL WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND MOVES IN LATE TODAY...ASIDE FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE QPF
FORECAST HAS CREATED ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY PARTICULAR AREA ATTM.

RAIN AND SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SLIDING
EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  47  64  46 /  90  80  30  10
FSM   64  48  62  45 /  70  90  50  10
MLC   60  48  61  46 /  90  80  40  10
BVO   60  46  66  44 /  70  70  20  10
FYV   61  45  60  42 /  50  70  30  10
BYV   60  45  60  43 /  20  40  30  10
MKO   60  47  62  45 /  90  80  30  10
MIO   62  46  64  44 /  30  50  20  10
F10   58  47  62  46 /  90  80  40  10
HHW   63  49  61  45 /  90  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. MUCH
OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND LOW-MID LVL WAA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS...POSSIBLY THE NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST WITH TIME
TODAY/TONIGHT INTO OUR AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT DOWN IN TX. THE FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...IN THE MCALESTER AREA...AND NEAR COLLINSVILLE
AS WELL WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND MOVES IN LATE TODAY...ASIDE FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE QPF
FORECAST HAS CREATED ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY PARTICULAR AREA ATTM.

RAIN AND SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SLIDING
EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  47  64  46 /  90  80  30  10
FSM   64  48  62  45 /  70  90  50  10
MLC   60  48  61  46 /  90  80  40  10
BVO   60  46  66  44 /  70  70  20  10
FYV   61  45  60  42 /  50  70  30  10
BYV   60  45  60  43 /  20  40  30  10
MKO   60  47  62  45 /  90  80  30  10
MIO   62  46  64  44 /  30  50  20  10
F10   58  47  62  46 /  90  80  40  10
HHW   63  49  61  45 /  90  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 270809
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST REMAINED RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT... BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS EAST WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS AREA OF CONCERN
REMAINS THE SAME. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT
A COOL DAY TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. SOME 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES OVER
AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 /  90  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 /  90  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  80  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

84/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 270809
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST REMAINED RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT... BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS EAST WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS AREA OF CONCERN
REMAINS THE SAME. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT
A COOL DAY TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. SOME 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES OVER
AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 /  90  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 /  90  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  80  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

84/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270809
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST REMAINED RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT... BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS EAST WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS AREA OF CONCERN
REMAINS THE SAME. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT
A COOL DAY TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. SOME 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES OVER
AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 /  90  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 /  90  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  80  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

84/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270809
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST REMAINED RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT... BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS EAST WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS AREA OF CONCERN
REMAINS THE SAME. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT
A COOL DAY TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. SOME 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES OVER
AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  47  64  45 /  90  70  30  10
HOBART OK         59  44  64  43 /  80  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  47  63  44 /  70  60  30  10
GAGE OK           52  39  65  41 /  90  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  44  67  45 /  80  70  20  10
DURANT OK         62  49  61  45 /  80  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

84/30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270739
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND LOW-MID LVL WAA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS...POSSIBLY THE NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST WITH TIME
TODAY/TONIGHT INTO OUR AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT DOWN IN TX. THE FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...IN THE MCALESTER AREA...AND NEAR COLLINSVILLE
AS WELL WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND MOVES IN LATE TODAY...ASIDE FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE QPF
FORECAST HAS CREATED ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY PARTICULAR AREA ATTM.

RAIN AND SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SLIDING
EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  47  64  46 /  90  80  30  10
FSM   64  48  62  45 /  60  90  50  10
MLC   60  48  61  46 /  90  80  40  10
BVO   60  46  66  44 /  70  70  20  10
FYV   61  45  60  42 /  20  70  30  10
BYV   60  45  60  43 /  20  40  30  10
MKO   60  47  62  45 /  90  80  30  10
MIO   62  46  64  44 /  20  50  20  10
F10   58  47  62  46 /  90  80  40  10
HHW   63  49  61  45 /  90  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 270739
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND LOW-MID LVL WAA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS...POSSIBLY THE NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST WITH TIME
TODAY/TONIGHT INTO OUR AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT DOWN IN TX. THE FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...IN THE MCALESTER AREA...AND NEAR COLLINSVILLE
AS WELL WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND MOVES IN LATE TODAY...ASIDE FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE QPF
FORECAST HAS CREATED ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY PARTICULAR AREA ATTM.

RAIN AND SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SLIDING
EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  47  64  46 /  90  80  30  10
FSM   64  48  62  45 /  60  90  50  10
MLC   60  48  61  46 /  90  80  40  10
BVO   60  46  66  44 /  70  70  20  10
FYV   61  45  60  42 /  20  70  30  10
BYV   60  45  60  43 /  20  40  30  10
MKO   60  47  62  45 /  90  80  30  10
MIO   62  46  64  44 /  20  50  20  10
F10   58  47  62  46 /  90  80  40  10
HHW   63  49  61  45 /  90  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SITES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND 9Z.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
OK AND NORTH TX AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SAMPLED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 00Z REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SE
OKLAHOMA IS RETAINING LOW MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AS ITS REMAINS IN
A ZONE BETWEEN THE MORE TROPICAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH TX...AND
THE TRUE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH NE
OK. AN AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALLOWING FOR APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE BULK OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
MORE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK GIVEN LATEST DATA...WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS REMAINING ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SITES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND 9Z.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
OK AND NORTH TX AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SAMPLED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 00Z REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SE
OKLAHOMA IS RETAINING LOW MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AS ITS REMAINS IN
A ZONE BETWEEN THE MORE TROPICAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH TX...AND
THE TRUE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH NE
OK. AN AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALLOWING FOR APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE BULK OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
MORE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK GIVEN LATEST DATA...WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS REMAINING ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SITES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND 9Z.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
OK AND NORTH TX AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SAMPLED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 00Z REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SE
OKLAHOMA IS RETAINING LOW MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AS ITS REMAINS IN
A ZONE BETWEEN THE MORE TROPICAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH TX...AND
THE TRUE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH NE
OK. AN AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALLOWING FOR APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE BULK OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
MORE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK GIVEN LATEST DATA...WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS REMAINING ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SITES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND 9Z.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
OK AND NORTH TX AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SAMPLED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 00Z REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SE
OKLAHOMA IS RETAINING LOW MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AS ITS REMAINS IN
A ZONE BETWEEN THE MORE TROPICAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH TX...AND
THE TRUE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH NE
OK. AN AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALLOWING FOR APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE BULK OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
MORE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK GIVEN LATEST DATA...WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS REMAINING ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN LARGER AREAS OF RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  59  48  61 /  90  80  70  30
HOBART OK         55  61  45  61 /  90  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  65  49  62 /  80  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  90  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN LARGER AREAS OF RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  59  48  61 /  90  80  70  30
HOBART OK         55  61  45  61 /  90  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  65  49  62 /  80  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  90  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 270343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN LARGER AREAS OF RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  59  48  61 /  90  80  70  30
HOBART OK         55  61  45  61 /  90  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  65  49  62 /  80  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  90  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270246
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
946 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
OK AND NORTH TX AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SAMPLED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 00Z REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SE
OKLAHOMA IS RETAINING LOW MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AS ITS REMAINS IN
A ZONE BETWEEN THE MORE TROPICAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH TX...AND
THE TRUE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH NE
OK. AN AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALLOWING FOR APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE BULK OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
MORE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK GIVEN LATEST DATA...WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS REMAINING ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  59  46  65 /  90  80  60  30
FSM   53  64  48  64 /  60  60  80  40
MLC   54  60  49  63 / 100  80  70  30
BVO   51  59  44  67 /  70  70  60  20
FYV   49  60  44  61 /  30  50  60  40
BYV   46  60  45  61 /  20  30  50  40
MKO   52  60  46  63 /  80  80  70  30
MIO   48  62  45  65 /  30  30  40  30
F10   52  58  47  63 / 100  80  70  30
HHW   56  63  49  63 / 100  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KOUN 262321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN LARGER AREAS OF RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  59  48  61 /  90  80  70  30
HOBART OK         55  61  45  61 /  90  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  90  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN LARGER AREAS OF RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  59  48  61 /  90  80  70  30
HOBART OK         55  61  45  61 /  90  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  90  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN LARGER AREAS OF RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  59  48  61 /  90  80  70  30
HOBART OK         55  61  45  61 /  90  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  90  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN LARGER AREAS OF RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  59  48  61 /  90  80  70  30
HOBART OK         55  61  45  61 /  90  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  90  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262257
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES
BY ABOUT 6Z... POSSIBLY SOONER AT MLC. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND
9Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY DOES POKE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS NOT ZERO ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WEST OF A
TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
THE 3 INCH MARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262257
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES
BY ABOUT 6Z... POSSIBLY SOONER AT MLC. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND
9Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY DOES POKE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS NOT ZERO ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WEST OF A
TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
THE 3 INCH MARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262257
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES
BY ABOUT 6Z... POSSIBLY SOONER AT MLC. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND
9Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY DOES POKE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS NOT ZERO ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WEST OF A
TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
THE 3 INCH MARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 262027
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS BETTER FORCING OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND SUNSET APPROACHES.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING
FOR A LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MAY HOLD THE GREATEST RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
AND FLASH FLOODING. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOULD RESULT IN RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS...ESPECIALLY WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.

RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER...WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  59  48  61 /  80  80  70  30
HOBART OK         56  61  45  61 /  80  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  80  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  70  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

04/06



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262027
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS BETTER FORCING OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND SUNSET APPROACHES.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING
FOR A LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MAY HOLD THE GREATEST RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
AND FLASH FLOODING. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOULD RESULT IN RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS...ESPECIALLY WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.

RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER...WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  59  48  61 /  80  80  70  30
HOBART OK         56  61  45  61 /  80  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  80  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  60  46  65 /  60  70  60  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  70  80  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044-046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

04/06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261918
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY DOES POKE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS NOT ZERO ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WEST OF A
TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
THE 3 INCH MARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  59  46  65 /  80  80  60  30
FSM   53  64  48  64 /  50  60  80  40
MLC   54  60  49  63 /  80  80  70  30
BVO   51  59  44  67 /  50  70  60  20
FYV   49  60  44  61 /  40  50  60  40
BYV   46  60  45  61 /  20  30  50  40
MKO   52  60  46  63 /  80  80  70  30
MIO   48  62  45  65 /  20  30  40  30
F10   52  58  47  63 /  80  80  70  30
HHW   56  63  49  63 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 261918
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY DOES POKE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS NOT ZERO ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WEST OF A
TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
THE 3 INCH MARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  59  46  65 /  80  80  60  30
FSM   53  64  48  64 /  50  60  80  40
MLC   54  60  49  63 /  80  80  70  30
BVO   51  59  44  67 /  50  70  60  20
FYV   49  60  44  61 /  40  50  60  40
BYV   46  60  45  61 /  20  30  50  40
MKO   52  60  46  63 /  80  80  70  30
MIO   48  62  45  65 /  20  30  40  30
F10   52  58  47  63 /  80  80  70  30
HHW   56  63  49  63 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10








000
FXUS64 KTSA 261918
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY DOES POKE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS NOT ZERO ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WEST OF A
TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
THE 3 INCH MARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  59  46  65 /  80  80  60  30
FSM   53  64  48  64 /  50  60  80  40
MLC   54  60  49  63 /  80  80  70  30
BVO   51  59  44  67 /  50  70  60  20
FYV   49  60  44  61 /  40  50  60  40
BYV   46  60  45  61 /  20  30  50  40
MKO   52  60  46  63 /  80  80  70  30
MIO   48  62  45  65 /  20  30  40  30
F10   52  58  47  63 /  80  80  70  30
HHW   56  63  49  63 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 261918
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY DOES POKE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS NOT ZERO ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WEST OF A
TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
THE 3 INCH MARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  59  46  65 /  80  80  60  30
FSM   53  64  48  64 /  50  60  80  40
MLC   54  60  49  63 /  80  80  70  30
BVO   51  59  44  67 /  50  70  60  20
FYV   49  60  44  61 /  40  50  60  40
BYV   46  60  45  61 /  20  30  50  40
MKO   52  60  46  63 /  80  80  70  30
MIO   48  62  45  65 /  20  30  40  30
F10   52  58  47  63 /  80  80  70  30
HHW   56  63  49  63 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10








000
FXUS64 KOUN 261816
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
116 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY
KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING (SPS,LAW,HBR). STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVING CURRENT VIS SAT... CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED NEAR
ABILENE TEXAS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LLANO
ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS AS WELL... INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT FROM
THE H5 LOW CROSSING NM AT PRESENT TIME. FROM ALL INDICATIONS...
LOOKS LIKE INITIATION ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK MAY BE MOVING UP
A FEW HOURS... TO LATE THIS AM/EARLY AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP HAVE THE CAP ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z
ACROSS NRN TX. 15Z MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC HAS SBCAPE SLOWLY
INCREASING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NRN BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY... 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. WITH AN EARLIER START... HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS LL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THIS EARLY... BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/TEXOMA. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTN... SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS
ACROSS TEXOMA WILL INCREASE LL SHEAR/HELICITIES... WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS TEXOMA... BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE
IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION... WHICH COULD
THROW A WRENCH INTO SEVERE CHANCES INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL
BE EVOLVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN.... SO STAY WEATHER AWARE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING WILL CONT
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH
SOUTH FROM THIS SFC LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
AND EVENING.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND IN DEVELOPING PRECIP A BIT QUICKER
TODAY AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WE EXPECT TO SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AS WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE WILL
TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP... BUT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS... WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE A LIKELY SCENARIO.
CONTEMPLATED FLOOD WATCH... BUT DUE TO THESE SHIFTS IN TIMING AND
LOCATION... WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THESE
ISSUES RESOLVE THEMSELVES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

BEYOND TUESDAY... IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A MUCH
QUIETER PERIOD WITH NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD TEMPS.
THIS WILL TAKE US INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  59  48  61 /  80  80  70  30
HOBART OK         56  61  45  61 /  80  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  80  80  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  60  46  65 /  60  60  50  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261816
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
116 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY
KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING (SPS,LAW,HBR). STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVING CURRENT VIS SAT... CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED NEAR
ABILENE TEXAS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LLANO
ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS AS WELL... INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT FROM
THE H5 LOW CROSSING NM AT PRESENT TIME. FROM ALL INDICATIONS...
LOOKS LIKE INITIATION ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK MAY BE MOVING UP
A FEW HOURS... TO LATE THIS AM/EARLY AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP HAVE THE CAP ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z
ACROSS NRN TX. 15Z MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC HAS SBCAPE SLOWLY
INCREASING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NRN BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY... 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. WITH AN EARLIER START... HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS LL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THIS EARLY... BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/TEXOMA. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTN... SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS
ACROSS TEXOMA WILL INCREASE LL SHEAR/HELICITIES... WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS TEXOMA... BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE
IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION... WHICH COULD
THROW A WRENCH INTO SEVERE CHANCES INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL
BE EVOLVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN.... SO STAY WEATHER AWARE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING WILL CONT
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH
SOUTH FROM THIS SFC LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
AND EVENING.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND IN DEVELOPING PRECIP A BIT QUICKER
TODAY AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WE EXPECT TO SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AS WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE WILL
TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP... BUT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS... WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE A LIKELY SCENARIO.
CONTEMPLATED FLOOD WATCH... BUT DUE TO THESE SHIFTS IN TIMING AND
LOCATION... WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THESE
ISSUES RESOLVE THEMSELVES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

BEYOND TUESDAY... IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A MUCH
QUIETER PERIOD WITH NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD TEMPS.
THIS WILL TAKE US INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  59  48  61 /  80  80  70  30
HOBART OK         56  61  45  61 /  80  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  80  80  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  60  46  65 /  60  60  50  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261816
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
116 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY
KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING (SPS,LAW,HBR). STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVING CURRENT VIS SAT... CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED NEAR
ABILENE TEXAS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LLANO
ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS AS WELL... INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT FROM
THE H5 LOW CROSSING NM AT PRESENT TIME. FROM ALL INDICATIONS...
LOOKS LIKE INITIATION ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK MAY BE MOVING UP
A FEW HOURS... TO LATE THIS AM/EARLY AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP HAVE THE CAP ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z
ACROSS NRN TX. 15Z MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC HAS SBCAPE SLOWLY
INCREASING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NRN BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY... 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. WITH AN EARLIER START... HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS LL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THIS EARLY... BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/TEXOMA. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTN... SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS
ACROSS TEXOMA WILL INCREASE LL SHEAR/HELICITIES... WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS TEXOMA... BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE
IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION... WHICH COULD
THROW A WRENCH INTO SEVERE CHANCES INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL
BE EVOLVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN.... SO STAY WEATHER AWARE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING WILL CONT
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH
SOUTH FROM THIS SFC LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
AND EVENING.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND IN DEVELOPING PRECIP A BIT QUICKER
TODAY AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WE EXPECT TO SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AS WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE WILL
TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP... BUT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS... WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE A LIKELY SCENARIO.
CONTEMPLATED FLOOD WATCH... BUT DUE TO THESE SHIFTS IN TIMING AND
LOCATION... WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THESE
ISSUES RESOLVE THEMSELVES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

BEYOND TUESDAY... IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A MUCH
QUIETER PERIOD WITH NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD TEMPS.
THIS WILL TAKE US INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  59  48  61 /  80  80  70  30
HOBART OK         56  61  45  61 /  80  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  80  80  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  60  46  65 /  60  60  50  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261816
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
116 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY
KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING (SPS,LAW,HBR). STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVING CURRENT VIS SAT... CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED NEAR
ABILENE TEXAS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LLANO
ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS AS WELL... INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT FROM
THE H5 LOW CROSSING NM AT PRESENT TIME. FROM ALL INDICATIONS...
LOOKS LIKE INITIATION ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK MAY BE MOVING UP
A FEW HOURS... TO LATE THIS AM/EARLY AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP HAVE THE CAP ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z
ACROSS NRN TX. 15Z MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC HAS SBCAPE SLOWLY
INCREASING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NRN BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY... 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. WITH AN EARLIER START... HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS LL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THIS EARLY... BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/TEXOMA. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTN... SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS
ACROSS TEXOMA WILL INCREASE LL SHEAR/HELICITIES... WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS TEXOMA... BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE
IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION... WHICH COULD
THROW A WRENCH INTO SEVERE CHANCES INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL
BE EVOLVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN.... SO STAY WEATHER AWARE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING WILL CONT
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH
SOUTH FROM THIS SFC LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
AND EVENING.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND IN DEVELOPING PRECIP A BIT QUICKER
TODAY AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WE EXPECT TO SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AS WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE WILL
TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP... BUT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS... WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE A LIKELY SCENARIO.
CONTEMPLATED FLOOD WATCH... BUT DUE TO THESE SHIFTS IN TIMING AND
LOCATION... WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THESE
ISSUES RESOLVE THEMSELVES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

BEYOND TUESDAY... IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A MUCH
QUIETER PERIOD WITH NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD TEMPS.
THIS WILL TAKE US INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  59  48  61 /  80  80  70  30
HOBART OK         56  61  45  61 /  80  80  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  65  49  62 /  70  70  60  30
GAGE OK           48  55  40  63 /  80  80  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  60  46  65 /  60  60  50  30
DURANT OK         58  65  50  61 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 261635
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NRN TX...JUST S OF THE RED RIVER WITH THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TX. OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINT POOLING NOTED ACROSS FAR SE OK.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE OK AND FAR
NW AR ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING N AND
MIXING OUT...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.

WHILE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WE`LL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS MAKING A RUN TOWARD SE OK
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS INTO OUR
AREA A BIT...SO HAVE TWEAKED EVENING POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  52  62  47 /  10  80  70  50
FSM   76  53  63  49 /  10  50  50  70
MLC   82  55  61  48 /  10  80  70  70
BVO   69  51  61  47 /  10  50  50  40
FYV   71  49  60  45 /  10  40  30  50
BYV   65  47  61  46 /  10  20  20  30
MKO   78  53  61  48 /  10  80  70  60
MIO   67  49  63  46 /  10  20  30  30
F10   77  53  59  48 /  10  80  70  70
HHW   83  56  65  50 /  10  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261635
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NRN TX...JUST S OF THE RED RIVER WITH THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TX. OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINT POOLING NOTED ACROSS FAR SE OK.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE OK AND FAR
NW AR ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING N AND
MIXING OUT...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.

WHILE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WE`LL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS MAKING A RUN TOWARD SE OK
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS INTO OUR
AREA A BIT...SO HAVE TWEAKED EVENING POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  52  62  47 /  10  80  70  50
FSM   76  53  63  49 /  10  50  50  70
MLC   82  55  61  48 /  10  80  70  70
BVO   69  51  61  47 /  10  50  50  40
FYV   71  49  60  45 /  10  40  30  50
BYV   65  47  61  46 /  10  20  20  30
MKO   78  53  61  48 /  10  80  70  60
MIO   67  49  63  46 /  10  20  30  30
F10   77  53  59  48 /  10  80  70  70
HHW   83  56  65  50 /  10  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10






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