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000
FXUS64 KOUN 250932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         62  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR OKZ004>030-034-035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         62  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR OKZ004>030-034-035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 250921
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING OSAGE COUNTY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR THIS MORNING...BUT
OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. PARTS OF NE OK PRIMARILY NW OF I-44 SHOULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 MPH...SO WILL PLAN ON A WIND ADVISORY FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A DAY...AS WLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT COOL...AND
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NUMBERS. COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS ERN OK PUSHING 70F FOR A HIGH. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LOOKING EVEN WARMER UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS
BOTH DAYS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NW AR/FAR ERN
OK...WITH LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF ERN OK. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 PUSH THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED FLOW NEXT WEEKEND...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY
LOW CONCERNING RETURN MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT BRINGING SRN
STREAM MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A RATHER CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH POPS...AS ECMWF ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING THE
BETTER MOISTURE S OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS LIGHT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND FINE TUNE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  31  68  38 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  62  38 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   59  31  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  30  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   49  29  56  36 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   48  30  55  37 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   56  32  65  39 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   51  28  63  34 /  20   0   0   0
F10   57  33  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  34  68  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY AT
THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST.
LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY AT
THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST.
LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 250448
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL
SITES BY 09Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH 15Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 09-15Z.
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH 23-24Z.

-RA WILL BE NEAR KPNC THROUGH 11Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THIS SITE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING. RADARS
ARE DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR
(00Z DDC) IS RESULTING IN EVAPORATION (VIRGA). SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD A MENTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         40  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING. RADARS
ARE DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR
(00Z DDC) IS RESULTING IN EVAPORATION (VIRGA). SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD A MENTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 03-10Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH 03-14Z...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 12-15Z.
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

-SHRA MAY BE NEAR KPNC 04-11Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         40  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING. RADARS
ARE DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR
(00Z DDC) IS RESULTING IN EVAPORATION (VIRGA). SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD A MENTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 03-10Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH 03-14Z...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 12-15Z.
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

-SHRA MAY BE NEAR KPNC 04-11Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         40  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING. RADARS
ARE DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR
(00Z DDC) IS RESULTING IN EVAPORATION (VIRGA). SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD A MENTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 03-10Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH 03-14Z...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 12-15Z.
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

-SHRA MAY BE NEAR KPNC 04-11Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         40  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING. RADARS
ARE DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR
(00Z DDC) IS RESULTING IN EVAPORATION (VIRGA). SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD A MENTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 03-10Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH 03-14Z...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 12-15Z.
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

-SHRA MAY BE NEAR KPNC 04-11Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         40  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 250314
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST.
LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250314
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST.
LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KOUN 242325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 03-10Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH 03-14Z...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 12-15Z.
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

-SHRA MAY BE NEAR KPNC 04-11Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         38  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 242310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES
MAY EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAINFALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY ACTIVE FORECAST...DESPITE ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIP...THE FIRST OF WHICH BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO TOMORROW. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. AN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...BUT PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAREST THE STRONGEST
UPPER SUPPORT...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER TOWARD
SUNRISE AND INTO THE REST OF SUNDAY. BESIDES THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...DRIER AIR...AND MUCH
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SINCE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS
/LIKELY GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE/ AND THE DRIER AIR WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL COVER THE THREAT...WITH TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTH LIKELY TO BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE COLDER /IN A RELATIVE SENSE RATHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE/
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
AID IN A QUICK WARMUP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LIKELY TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND
THE WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SET FOR
THURSDAY...ATOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY MAY KEEP THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARM
NOSE FROM BEING REALIZED. OVERALL...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD COME THROUGH
DRY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS POINT IS ABOUT ALL THAT IS CERTAIN ABOUT THAT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD...WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW TO
TREAT A SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO CLOSED LOW
LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS ITS TREND OF SHOVING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO ITS STRONGER THURSDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS TREND OF ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR REMAINS INTACT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH ITS TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER. THE
DGEX HAS BOTH THE STRONG COLD AIR FROM THE ECMWF AND THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THE GFS. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
GEM SEEMS TO NEGATE THE DRY ECMWF. SO AS YOU CAN SEE...LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. FROM WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW...IF
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
INCREASING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT NEXT WEEKEND/S FORECAST TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO KEEP WATCHING FOR UPDATES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 242310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES
MAY EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAINFALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY ACTIVE FORECAST...DESPITE ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIP...THE FIRST OF WHICH BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO TOMORROW. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. AN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...BUT PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAREST THE STRONGEST
UPPER SUPPORT...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER TOWARD
SUNRISE AND INTO THE REST OF SUNDAY. BESIDES THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...DRIER AIR...AND MUCH
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SINCE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS
/LIKELY GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE/ AND THE DRIER AIR WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL COVER THE THREAT...WITH TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTH LIKELY TO BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE COLDER /IN A RELATIVE SENSE RATHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE/
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
AID IN A QUICK WARMUP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LIKELY TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND
THE WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SET FOR
THURSDAY...ATOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY MAY KEEP THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARM
NOSE FROM BEING REALIZED. OVERALL...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD COME THROUGH
DRY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS POINT IS ABOUT ALL THAT IS CERTAIN ABOUT THAT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD...WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW TO
TREAT A SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO CLOSED LOW
LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS ITS TREND OF SHOVING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO ITS STRONGER THURSDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS TREND OF ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR REMAINS INTACT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH ITS TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER. THE
DGEX HAS BOTH THE STRONG COLD AIR FROM THE ECMWF AND THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THE GFS. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
GEM SEEMS TO NEGATE THE DRY ECMWF. SO AS YOU CAN SEE...LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. FROM WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW...IF
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
INCREASING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT NEXT WEEKEND/S FORECAST TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO KEEP WATCHING FOR UPDATES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 242057
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         38  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 242057
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         38  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 242057
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         38  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 242057
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         38  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 242056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY ACTIVE FORECAST...DESPITE ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIP...THE FIRST OF WHICH BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO TOMORROW. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. AN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...BUT PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAREST THE STRONGEST
UPPER SUPPORT...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER TOWARD
SUNRISE AND INTO THE REST OF SUNDAY. BESIDES THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...DRIER AIR...AND MUCH
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SINCE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS
/LIKELY GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE/ AND THE DRIER AIR WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL COVER THE THREAT...WITH TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTH LIKELY TO BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE COLDER /IN A RELATIVE SENSE RATHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE/
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
AID IN A QUICK WARMUP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LIKELY TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND
THE WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SET FOR
THURSDAY...ATOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY MAY KEEP THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARM
NOSE FROM BEING REALIZED. OVERALL...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD COME THROUGH
DRY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS POINT IS ABOUT ALL THAT IS CERTAIN ABOUT THAT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD...WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW TO
TREAT A SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO CLOSED LOW
LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS ITS TREND OF SHOVING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO ITS STRONGER THURSDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS TREND OF ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR REMAINS INTACT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH ITS TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER. THE
DGEX HAS BOTH THE STRONG COLD AIR FROM THE ECMWF AND THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THE GFS. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
GEM SEEMS TO NEGATE THE DRY ECMWF. SO AS YOU CAN SEE...LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. FROM WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW...IF
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
INCREASING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT NEXT WEEKEND/S FORECAST TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO KEEP WATCHING FOR UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  56  32  67 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   38  55  34  61 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   40  60  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  55  30  66 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   38  49  29  55 /  20  30  10   0
BYV   40  48  30  54 /  30  30  10   0
MKO   39  56  32  64 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   40  50  30  62 /  30  20  10   0
F10   41  57  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   37  61  35  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 242056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY ACTIVE FORECAST...DESPITE ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIP...THE FIRST OF WHICH BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO TOMORROW. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. AN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...BUT PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAREST THE STRONGEST
UPPER SUPPORT...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER TOWARD
SUNRISE AND INTO THE REST OF SUNDAY. BESIDES THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...DRIER AIR...AND MUCH
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SINCE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS
/LIKELY GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE/ AND THE DRIER AIR WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL COVER THE THREAT...WITH TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTH LIKELY TO BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE COLDER /IN A RELATIVE SENSE RATHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE/
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
AID IN A QUICK WARMUP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LIKELY TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND
THE WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SET FOR
THURSDAY...ATOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY MAY KEEP THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARM
NOSE FROM BEING REALIZED. OVERALL...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD COME THROUGH
DRY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS POINT IS ABOUT ALL THAT IS CERTAIN ABOUT THAT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD...WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW TO
TREAT A SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO CLOSED LOW
LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS ITS TREND OF SHOVING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO ITS STRONGER THURSDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS TREND OF ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR REMAINS INTACT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH ITS TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER. THE
DGEX HAS BOTH THE STRONG COLD AIR FROM THE ECMWF AND THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THE GFS. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
GEM SEEMS TO NEGATE THE DRY ECMWF. SO AS YOU CAN SEE...LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. FROM WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW...IF
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
INCREASING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT NEXT WEEKEND/S FORECAST TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO KEEP WATCHING FOR UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  56  32  67 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   38  55  34  61 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   40  60  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  55  30  66 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   38  49  29  55 /  20  30  10   0
BYV   40  48  30  54 /  30  30  10   0
MKO   39  56  32  64 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   40  50  30  62 /  30  20  10   0
F10   41  57  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   37  61  35  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241755
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A MID AC DECK SPREADING INTO FAR NE OK/NW
AR NEAR THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NW AR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241755
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A MID AC DECK SPREADING INTO FAR NE OK/NW
AR NEAR THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NW AR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 241730 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
24/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. PRIMARILY LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND WILL BECOME STRONG NORTHWEST 12-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING AS WINDS RESPOND TO DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           58  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241730 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
24/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. PRIMARILY LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND WILL BECOME STRONG NORTHWEST 12-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING AS WINDS RESPOND TO DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           58  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 241711
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 241215
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241215
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241215
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241215
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241127
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
527 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE SATURDAY IS IN STORE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WLY/SWLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S
WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN NE OK. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND MORE CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR ERN OK
AND NW AR.

RISING HEIGHTS/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

A COUPLE OF SURGES OF COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH THE INITIAL COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KNOCK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
READINGS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A MUCH STRONGER PUSH
OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE
AMOUNT/PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS CERTAINLY
PAINTING A WINTRY SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. STILL WAY
TOO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL ON THIS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240917
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE SATURDAY IS IN STORE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WLY/SWLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S
WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN NE OK. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND MORE CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR ERN OK
AND NW AR.

RISING HEIGHTS/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

A COUPLE OF SURGES OF COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH THE INITIAL COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KNOCK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
READINGS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A MUCH STRONGER PUSH
OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE
AMOUNT/PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS CERTAINLY
PAINTING A WINTRY SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. STILL WAY
TOO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL ON THIS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  35  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  38  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  35  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  36  53  30 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   56  39  52  30 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   57  37  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  38  54  29 /   0   0  10  10
F10   59  39  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  35  63  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240917
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE SATURDAY IS IN STORE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WLY/SWLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S
WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN NE OK. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND MORE CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR ERN OK
AND NW AR.

RISING HEIGHTS/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

A COUPLE OF SURGES OF COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH THE INITIAL COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KNOCK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
READINGS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A MUCH STRONGER PUSH
OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE
AMOUNT/PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS CERTAINLY
PAINTING A WINTRY SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. STILL WAY
TOO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL ON THIS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  35  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  38  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  35  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  36  53  30 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   56  39  52  30 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   57  37  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  38  54  29 /   0   0  10  10
F10   59  39  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  35  63  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240917
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE SATURDAY IS IN STORE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WLY/SWLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S
WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN NE OK. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND MORE CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR ERN OK
AND NW AR.

RISING HEIGHTS/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

A COUPLE OF SURGES OF COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH THE INITIAL COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KNOCK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
READINGS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A MUCH STRONGER PUSH
OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE
AMOUNT/PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS CERTAINLY
PAINTING A WINTRY SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. STILL WAY
TOO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL ON THIS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  35  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  38  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  35  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  36  53  30 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   56  39  52  30 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   57  37  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  38  54  29 /   0   0  10  10
F10   59  39  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  35  63  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 240903
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240903
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           55  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240514
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS PULLING AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...A TRANQUIL AND
CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS. A WARMER DAY IS IN
STORE TO START THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH
INCREASED WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240514
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS PULLING AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...A TRANQUIL AND
CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS. A WARMER DAY IS IN
STORE TO START THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH
INCREASED WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14






000
FXUS64 KOUN 240430
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
ALL SITES BY 08Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240430
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
ALL SITES BY 08Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS PULLING AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...A TRANQUIL AND
CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS. A WARMER DAY IS IN
STORE TO START THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH
INCREASED WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  59  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  56  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   26  57  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  55  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  54  38  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   22  56  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  56  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  57  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   28  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS PULLING AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...A TRANQUIL AND
CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS. A WARMER DAY IS IN
STORE TO START THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH
INCREASED WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  59  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  56  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   26  57  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  55  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  54  38  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   22  56  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  56  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  57  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   28  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 232324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
ALL SITES 02-12Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 232324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
ALL SITES 02-12Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 232313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH INCREASED
WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 232313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH INCREASED
WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 232313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH INCREASED
WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 232313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH INCREASED
WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 232100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH INCREASED
WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  59  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  56  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  57  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  55  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   28  54  38  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  56  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  56  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  57  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   28  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 232100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S... MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
BEGINNING SATURDAY HOWEVER... BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER... RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. ANY PERIODS WITH INCREASED
WINDS WILL POSE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  59  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  56  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  57  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  55  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   28  54  38  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  56  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  56  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  57  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   28  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 231950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231756
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1156 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TOWARDS THE
NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 241200.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL AREA OF SNOW
COVER WILL MODULATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE
GONE BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTS WITH DOWNSLOPE-MODIFIED DRY AIR. WINDS
COULD BE UP A BIT SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND ONE, BUT IT SEEMS THAT RH
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO AVOID ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. THIS
EVENT ALSO LOOKS DRY. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           45  27  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     49  29  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  32  57  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 231756
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1156 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TOWARDS THE
NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 241200.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL AREA OF SNOW
COVER WILL MODULATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE
GONE BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTS WITH DOWNSLOPE-MODIFIED DRY AIR. WINDS
COULD BE UP A BIT SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND ONE, BUT IT SEEMS THAT RH
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO AVOID ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. THIS
EVENT ALSO LOOKS DRY. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           45  27  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     49  29  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  32  57  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231753
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH WEAK WIND SHIFT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231753
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH WEAK WIND SHIFT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231753
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH WEAK WIND SHIFT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231753
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS SE OK/WEST CENTRAL AR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH WEAK WIND SHIFT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 231233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 241200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL AREA OF SNOW
COVER WILL MODULATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE
GONE BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTS WITH DOWNSLOPE-MODIFIED DRY AIR. WINDS
COULD BE UP A BIT SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND ONE, BUT IT SEEMS THAT RH
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO AVOID ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. THIS
EVENT ALSO LOOKS DRY. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         46  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  27  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  29  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  32  57  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 241200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL AREA OF SNOW
COVER WILL MODULATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE
GONE BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTS WITH DOWNSLOPE-MODIFIED DRY AIR. WINDS
COULD BE UP A BIT SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND ONE, BUT IT SEEMS THAT RH
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO AVOID ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. THIS
EVENT ALSO LOOKS DRY. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         46  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  27  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  29  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  32  57  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 241200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL AREA OF SNOW
COVER WILL MODULATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE
GONE BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTS WITH DOWNSLOPE-MODIFIED DRY AIR. WINDS
COULD BE UP A BIT SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND ONE, BUT IT SEEMS THAT RH
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO AVOID ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. THIS
EVENT ALSO LOOKS DRY. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         46  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  27  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  29  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  32  57  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 241200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL AREA OF SNOW
COVER WILL MODULATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE
GONE BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTS WITH DOWNSLOPE-MODIFIED DRY AIR. WINDS
COULD BE UP A BIT SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND ONE, BUT IT SEEMS THAT RH
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO AVOID ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. THIS
EVENT ALSO LOOKS DRY. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         46  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  27  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  29  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  32  57  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS W TX WILL EJECT NEARLY DUE E
TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NRN LA LATE TODAY. LOCAL
MODEL/HRRR/RUC ALL KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO PLAN ON REMOVING MORNING POPS ACROSS SE OK.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS SE OK...WITH ONE LAST
SEASONALLY COOL DAY BEFORE A NICE WARMUP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROF...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH 60F
ACROSS ERN OK ON SATURDAY AND WARM WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY.

THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE FORECAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER
AIRMASS TO SLIDE SOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS W TX WILL EJECT NEARLY DUE E
TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NRN LA LATE TODAY. LOCAL
MODEL/HRRR/RUC ALL KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO PLAN ON REMOVING MORNING POPS ACROSS SE OK.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS SE OK...WITH ONE LAST
SEASONALLY COOL DAY BEFORE A NICE WARMUP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROF...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH 60F
ACROSS ERN OK ON SATURDAY AND WARM WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY.

THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE FORECAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER
AIRMASS TO SLIDE SOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS W TX WILL EJECT NEARLY DUE E
TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NRN LA LATE TODAY. LOCAL
MODEL/HRRR/RUC ALL KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO PLAN ON REMOVING MORNING POPS ACROSS SE OK.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS SE OK...WITH ONE LAST
SEASONALLY COOL DAY BEFORE A NICE WARMUP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROF...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH 60F
ACROSS ERN OK ON SATURDAY AND WARM WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY.

THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE FORECAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER
AIRMASS TO SLIDE SOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS W TX WILL EJECT NEARLY DUE E
TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NRN LA LATE TODAY. LOCAL
MODEL/HRRR/RUC ALL KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO PLAN ON REMOVING MORNING POPS ACROSS SE OK.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS SE OK...WITH ONE LAST
SEASONALLY COOL DAY BEFORE A NICE WARMUP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROF...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH 60F
ACROSS ERN OK ON SATURDAY AND WARM WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY.

THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE FORECAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER
AIRMASS TO SLIDE SOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





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