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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300434
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will continue through the early morning hours
from SE OK into NW AR with brief aviation impacts possible. Patchy
fog may also develop from NE OK into far NW AR and possibly mixing
into MVFR ceilings after sunrise. Thereafter VFR conditions will
prevail with isolated afternoon convection possible primarily over
western AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   69  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   62  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   67  87  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   66  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   67  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300434
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will continue through the early morning hours
from SE OK into NW AR with brief aviation impacts possible. Patchy
fog may also develop from NE OK into far NW AR and possibly mixing
into MVFR ceilings after sunrise. Thereafter VFR conditions will
prevail with isolated afternoon convection possible primarily over
western AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   69  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   62  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   67  87  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   66  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   67  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection has recently developed along the stationary frontal
boundary however eventual coverage is expected to remain limited
prior to dissipation later this evening. Otherwise...patchy fog is
possible again tonight primarily across NE OK and far NW AR with
periodic MVFR ceilings after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   65  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   66  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 292010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cool front is currently pushing through Northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and was located just south of Interstate 44. Slightly
cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the
increased cloud cover.

A few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, mainly this
afternoon/evening, as the front stalls tonight. Cutoff low will
begin to develop over the Arklatx region into the day Sunday. The
lingering boundary, coupled with strong surface heating, could
allow a few isolated thunderstorms to develop over Northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon.

Little change is expected into the early/middle part of next week
with temperatures running slightly above normal for this time of
year. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as
ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern
Plains. Precipitation changes will likely remain minimal at best
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   68  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   61  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   66  87  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   65  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
F10   67  87  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   70  94  70  94 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  10  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  10  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  10  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  40  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  40  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  20  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  69  90  69 /  40  20  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  64  85  65 /  40  20  20  10
BYV   85  64  85  65 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   89  66  88  69 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   85  65  86  67 /  20  20  10  10
F10   90  66  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   94  69  93  70 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated to scattered convection will continue to fester overnight
with the highest coverage expected toward western AR sites later
tonight through early Sat morning. Convective coverage then likely
wanes before another possible uptick along the sfc boundary
tomorrow afternoon...and again favoring western AR sites. VFR
conditions will prevail w/ stronger convection being the
exception.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated to scattered convection will continue to fester overnight
with the highest coverage expected toward western AR sites later
tonight through early Sat morning. Convective coverage then likely
wanes before another possible uptick along the sfc boundary
tomorrow afternoon...and again favoring western AR sites. VFR
conditions will prevail w/ stronger convection being the
exception.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated to scattered convection will continue to fester overnight
with the highest coverage expected toward western AR sites later
tonight through early Sat morning. Convective coverage then likely
wanes before another possible uptick along the sfc boundary
tomorrow afternoon...and again favoring western AR sites. VFR
conditions will prevail w/ stronger convection being the
exception.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated to scattered convection will continue to fester overnight
with the highest coverage expected toward western AR sites later
tonight through early Sat morning. Convective coverage then likely
wanes before another possible uptick along the sfc boundary
tomorrow afternoon...and again favoring western AR sites. VFR
conditions will prevail w/ stronger convection being the
exception.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 282333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 282333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281920
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  50  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  50  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281920
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  50  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  50  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281920
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  69  90 /  50  10  10  10
FSM   68  89  68  92 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   70  89  70  93 /  40  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  63  89 /  50  10  10  10
FYV   63  85  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   64  85  63  87 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   67  88  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
F10   69  89  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
HHW   68  91  69  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR KOKC-KHBR THROUGH 21Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA AND PERHAPS ISO TSRA MAY FORM AFTER 21Z...BUT
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...TIMING...AND LOCATIONS...DID
NOT MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 13Z...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 12 KT.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR KOKC-KHBR THROUGH 21Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA AND PERHAPS ISO TSRA MAY FORM AFTER 21Z...BUT
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...TIMING...AND LOCATIONS...DID
NOT MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 13Z...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 12 KT.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR KOKC-KHBR THROUGH 21Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA AND PERHAPS ISO TSRA MAY FORM AFTER 21Z...BUT
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...TIMING...AND LOCATIONS...DID
NOT MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 13Z...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 12 KT.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR KOKC-KHBR THROUGH 21Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA AND PERHAPS ISO TSRA MAY FORM AFTER 21Z...BUT
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...TIMING...AND LOCATIONS...DID
NOT MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 13Z...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 12 KT.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281727
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail with spotty showers
affecting northeast Oklahoma TAF sites this afternoon. Will
continue TEMPO for thunder late tonight into early saturday
as a cold front moves into the region at NE OK and NW AR TAF
sites. PROB30 will continue at other sites for late tonight into
saturday morning.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Spotty showers continue across northeast Oklahoma this morning
as a mid-level shortwave moves into the region. Will continue to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as this lead
shortwave moves across the area. Will leave high temperatures the
way they are for now. However...some locations across northeast Oklahoma
may need to have temperatures lower due the extensive cloud cover.
Otherwise...forecast looks good.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281727
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail with spotty showers
affecting northeast Oklahoma TAF sites this afternoon. Will
continue TEMPO for thunder late tonight into early saturday
as a cold front moves into the region at NE OK and NW AR TAF
sites. PROB30 will continue at other sites for late tonight into
saturday morning.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Spotty showers continue across northeast Oklahoma this morning
as a mid-level shortwave moves into the region. Will continue to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as this lead
shortwave moves across the area. Will leave high temperatures the
way they are for now. However...some locations across northeast Oklahoma
may need to have temperatures lower due the extensive cloud cover.
Otherwise...forecast looks good.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281600 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         90  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281600 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         90  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281600 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         90  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281600 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         90  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Spotty showers continue across northeast Oklahoma this morning
as a mid-level shortwave moves into the region. Will continue to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as this lead
shortwave moves across the area. Will leave high temperatures the
way they are for now. However...some locations across northeast Oklahoma
may need to have temperatures lower due the extensive cloud cover.
Otherwise...forecast looks good.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Spotty showers continue across northeast Oklahoma this morning
as a mid-level shortwave moves into the region. Will continue to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as this lead
shortwave moves across the area. Will leave high temperatures the
way they are for now. However...some locations across northeast Oklahoma
may need to have temperatures lower due the extensive cloud cover.
Otherwise...forecast looks good.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281147 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281147 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281147 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281147 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
23/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Considerable mid and high level cloudiness will affect the TAF
sites through the forecast period. A few showers may approach the
northeast Oklahoma sites this morning before they dissipate.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight as a weakening cold front approaches the area from the
north. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS  NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS HELD TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT PRECIP-
ITATION TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  MEASURABLE RAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF KTUL KBVO.

TAIL END OF SHARP H5 WAVE PUSHES COOL FRONT INTO
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION TSA FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS  AND  THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH INTERSTATE 40. LINGERING SHOWERS
EAST SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE  OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES FULL
CONTROL LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Considerable mid and high level cloudiness will affect the TAF
sites through the forecast period. A few showers may approach the
northeast Oklahoma sites this morning before they dissipate.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight as a weakening cold front approaches the area from the
north. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS  NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS HELD TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT PRECIP-
ITATION TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  MEASURABLE RAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF KTUL KBVO.

TAIL END OF SHARP H5 WAVE PUSHES COOL FRONT INTO
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION TSA FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS  AND  THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH INTERSTATE 40. LINGERING SHOWERS
EAST SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE  OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES FULL
CONTROL LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Considerable mid and high level cloudiness will affect the TAF
sites through the forecast period. A few showers may approach the
northeast Oklahoma sites this morning before they dissipate.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight as a weakening cold front approaches the area from the
north. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS  NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS HELD TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT PRECIP-
ITATION TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  MEASURABLE RAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF KTUL KBVO.

TAIL END OF SHARP H5 WAVE PUSHES COOL FRONT INTO
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION TSA FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS  AND  THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH INTERSTATE 40. LINGERING SHOWERS
EAST SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE  OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES FULL
CONTROL LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Considerable mid and high level cloudiness will affect the TAF
sites through the forecast period. A few showers may approach the
northeast Oklahoma sites this morning before they dissipate.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight as a weakening cold front approaches the area from the
north. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS  NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS HELD TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT PRECIP-
ITATION TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  MEASURABLE RAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF KTUL KBVO.

TAIL END OF SHARP H5 WAVE PUSHES COOL FRONT INTO
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION TSA FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS  AND  THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH INTERSTATE 40. LINGERING SHOWERS
EAST SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE  OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES FULL
CONTROL LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280930
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280930
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280930
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280930
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280921
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
421 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS  NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS HELD TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT PRECIP-
ITATION TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  MEASURABLE RAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF KTUL KBVO.

TAIL END OF SHARP H5 WAVE PUSHES COOL FRONT INTO
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION TSA FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS  AND  THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH INTERSTATE 40. LINGERING SHOWERS
EAST SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE  OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES FULL
CONTROL LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  70  88  71 /  40  60  10  10
FSM   87  68  87  69 /  10  40  20  10
MLC   88  71  88  71 /  10  30  20  10
BVO   87  68  87  65 /  40  50  10  10
FYV   83  64  83  63 /  10  50  30  10
BYV   84  65  84  63 /  10  60  30  10
MKO   86  68  86  69 /  20  60  20  10
MIO   86  66  88  66 /  10  60  10  10
F10   88  70  89  70 /  20  50  20  10
HHW   92  68  89  69 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21



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