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000
FXUS64 KOUN 031736 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...03/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD. HOWEVER... BKN TO
OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK... ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER... OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE KWWR/KGAG/KPNC SITES AND POTENTIALLY
KCSM/KHBR/KOKC/KOUN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS NRN OK FOR
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT. VIS AND CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT
TIMES AS WELL... OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY... WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. WITH ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  92  73  98 /  20  20  20  10
HOBART OK         72  98  73 102 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  99  76 102 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  93  69  98 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     70  86  72  94 /  40  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  97  77  99 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031736 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...03/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD. HOWEVER... BKN TO
OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK... ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER... OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE KWWR/KGAG/KPNC SITES AND POTENTIALLY
KCSM/KHBR/KOKC/KOUN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS NRN OK FOR
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT. VIS AND CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT
TIMES AS WELL... OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY... WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. WITH ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  92  73  98 /  20  20  20  10
HOBART OK         72  98  73 102 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  99  76 102 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  93  69  98 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     70  86  72  94 /  40  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  97  77  99 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KTSA 031653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOW CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE INTRODUCED AFTER 12Z AT KBVO...WHERE
PROB30 WILL HIGHLIGHT MVFR VSBYS IN THUNDER. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING ERN OK FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SW OK.
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INDICATE TEMPS ARE TRACKING TOWARDS FORECAST
AFTERNOON MAXES. BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/TOMORROW STILL LOOK TO
BE ACROSS FAR NE OK...NEAR THE KS BORDER. HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR SE OK THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. RESENT FIRE WX PRODUCT EARLIER
THAT NOW INCLUDES PREVIOUSLY MISSING MIXING HEIGHT DATA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING ERN OK FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SW OK.
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INDICATE TEMPS ARE TRACKING TOWARDS FORECAST
AFTERNOON MAXES. BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/TOMORROW STILL LOOK TO
BE ACROSS FAR NE OK...NEAR THE KS BORDER. HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR SE OK THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. RESENT FIRE WX PRODUCT EARLIER
THAT NOW INCLUDES PREVIOUSLY MISSING MIXING HEIGHT DATA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 031519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING ERN OK FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SW OK.
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INDICATE TEMPS ARE TRACKING TOWARDS FORECAST
AFTERNOON MAXES. BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/TOMORROW STILL LOOK TO
BE ACROSS FAR NE OK...NEAR THE KS BORDER. HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR SE OK THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. RESENT FIRE WX PRODUCT EARLIER
THAT NOW INCLUDES PREVIOUSLY MISSING MIXING HEIGHT DATA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 031519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING ERN OK FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SW OK.
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INDICATE TEMPS ARE TRACKING TOWARDS FORECAST
AFTERNOON MAXES. BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/TOMORROW STILL LOOK TO
BE ACROSS FAR NE OK...NEAR THE KS BORDER. HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR SE OK THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. RESENT FIRE WX PRODUCT EARLIER
THAT NOW INCLUDES PREVIOUSLY MISSING MIXING HEIGHT DATA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 031519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING ERN OK FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SW OK.
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INDICATE TEMPS ARE TRACKING TOWARDS FORECAST
AFTERNOON MAXES. BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/TOMORROW STILL LOOK TO
BE ACROSS FAR NE OK...NEAR THE KS BORDER. HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR SE OK THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. RESENT FIRE WX PRODUCT EARLIER
THAT NOW INCLUDES PREVIOUSLY MISSING MIXING HEIGHT DATA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-NUM -SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF KEND-KOKC-KADM
THROUGH 17Z AT THE LATEST. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH -SHRA.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR...
KGAG...KCSM...AND KHBR THROUGH 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 21Z...MAINLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ONLY ADDED -TSRA AT KWWR AND KGAG 03-07Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS HIGHEST. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         93  72  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           90  68  93  69 /  30  60  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  70  86  72 /  10  40  60  40
DURANT OK         98  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 031121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-NUM -SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF KEND-KOKC-KADM
THROUGH 17Z AT THE LATEST. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH -SHRA.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR...
KGAG...KCSM...AND KHBR THROUGH 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 21Z...MAINLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ONLY ADDED -TSRA AT KWWR AND KGAG 03-07Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS HIGHEST. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         93  72  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           90  68  93  69 /  30  60  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  70  86  72 /  10  40  60  40
DURANT OK         98  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  30  40
FSM   97  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   95  72  94  76 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  60  60
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  50
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  50
MKO   94  73  90  72 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  40  60
F10   94  74  92  75 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 031100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  30  40
FSM   97  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   95  72  94  76 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  60  60
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  50
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  50
MKO   94  73  90  72 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  40  60
F10   94  74  92  75 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 031100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  30  40
FSM   97  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   95  72  94  76 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  60  60
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  50
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  50
MKO   94  73  90  72 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  40  60
F10   94  74  92  75 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 031100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  30  40
FSM   97  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   95  72  94  76 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  60  60
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  50
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  50
MKO   94  73  90  72 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  40  60
F10   94  74  92  75 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030845
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         93  72  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           90  68  93  69 /  30  60  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  70  86  72 /  10  40  60  40
DURANT OK         98  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030845
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         93  72  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           90  68  93  69 /  30  60  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  70  86  72 /  10  40  60  40
DURANT OK         98  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030845
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         93  72  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           90  68  93  69 /  30  60  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  70  86  72 /  10  40  60  40
DURANT OK         98  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030845
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         93  72  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           90  68  93  69 /  30  60  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  70  86  72 /  10  40  60  40
DURANT OK         98  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  50  30
FSM   97  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
MLC   95  72  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  50  50
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  40
MKO   94  73  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  50  40
F10   94  74  91  75 /  10  10  30  20
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  50  30
FSM   97  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
MLC   95  72  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  50  50
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  40
MKO   94  73  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  50  40
F10   94  74  91  75 /  10  10  30  20
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  50  30
FSM   97  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
MLC   95  72  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  50  50
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  40
MKO   94  73  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  50  40
F10   94  74  91  75 /  10  10  30  20
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AND AREAS THAT DO
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED DEW-POINTS/HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. EITHER WAY...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  89  73 /  10  10  50  30
FSM   97  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
MLC   95  72  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   95  70  88  68 /  10  10  50  50
FYV   92  67  91  70 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   93  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  40
MKO   94  73  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   94  69  88  69 /  10  10  50  40
F10   94  74  91  75 /  10  10  30  20
HHW   98  71  97  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KOUN 030346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN OK LATE
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. LIGHTNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/NEAR
SUNRISE...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSRA...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ANY OF THIS FOR THE MOMENT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  72  93  72 /  30  10  10  30
HOBART OK         91  72  95  72 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           91  70  91  68 /  20  20  30  60
PONCA CITY OK     93  73  94  73 /  10   0  10  30
DURANT OK         96  73  98  74 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN OK LATE
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. LIGHTNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/NEAR
SUNRISE...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSRA...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ANY OF THIS FOR THE MOMENT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  72  93  72 /  30  10  10  30
HOBART OK         91  72  95  72 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           91  70  91  68 /  20  20  30  60
PONCA CITY OK     93  73  94  73 /  10   0  10  30
DURANT OK         96  73  98  74 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN OK LATE
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. LIGHTNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/NEAR
SUNRISE...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSRA...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ANY OF THIS FOR THE MOMENT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  72  93  72 /  30  10  10  30
HOBART OK         91  72  95  72 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           91  70  91  68 /  20  20  30  60
PONCA CITY OK     93  73  94  73 /  10   0  10  30
DURANT OK         96  73  98  74 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN OK LATE
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. LIGHTNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/NEAR
SUNRISE...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSRA...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ANY OF THIS FOR THE MOMENT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  72  93  72 /  30  10  10  30
HOBART OK         91  72  95  72 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           91  70  91  68 /  20  20  30  60
PONCA CITY OK     93  73  94  73 /  10   0  10  30
DURANT OK         96  73  98  74 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030207 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
907 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WX AND HOURLY GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK GOOD. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS ARE
NEARING THE OK BORDER FROM THE WEST NEAR GAG EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE TSRA OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS OVER GAG/WWR.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  92 /  10  10  30  40
HOBART OK         72  95  72  97 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           70  91  68  93 /  20  30  60  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  73  88 /   0  10  30  50
DURANT OK         73  98  74  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 030046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEB/IA AND
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT
NORTH BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THUS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ANOTHER TRANQUIL SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE OVER THE
REGION. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE EVENING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022330
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS ARE
NEARING THE OK BORDER FROM THE WEST NEAR GAG EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE TSRA OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS OVER GAG/WWR.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  92 /  10  10  30  40
HOBART OK         72  95  72  97 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           70  91  68  93 /  20  30  60  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  73  88 /   0  10  30  50
DURANT OK         73  98  74  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022330
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS ARE
NEARING THE OK BORDER FROM THE WEST NEAR GAG EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE TSRA OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS OVER GAG/WWR.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  92 /  10  10  30  40
HOBART OK         72  95  72  97 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           70  91  68  93 /  20  30  60  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  73  88 /   0  10  30  50
DURANT OK         73  98  74  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 022330
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS ARE
NEARING THE OK BORDER FROM THE WEST NEAR GAG EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE TSRA OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS OVER GAG/WWR.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  92 /  10  10  30  40
HOBART OK         72  95  72  97 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           70  91  68  93 /  20  30  60  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  73  88 /   0  10  30  50
DURANT OK         73  98  74  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 022258
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 022003
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 022003
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE RIVER VALLEY OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL SEE A MINOR COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   74  94  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   70  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAVE WILL CONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME WEAK WAA AGAIN TONIGHT
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS... MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST. MOST OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL BEFORE A STRONGER
WAVE MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS A BETTER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... UPPER RIDGE STILL
APPEARS THAT IT WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK EAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOME +100 DEGREE
READINGS... ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST/WEST.

A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL TRY AND BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND HELP BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH A
RETURN OF SOME RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  92 /  10  10  30  40
HOBART OK         72  95  72  97 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           70  91  68  93 /  20  30  60  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  73  88 /   0  10  30  50
DURANT OK         73  98  74  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAVE WILL CONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME WEAK WAA AGAIN TONIGHT
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS... MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST. MOST OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL BEFORE A STRONGER
WAVE MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS A BETTER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... UPPER RIDGE STILL
APPEARS THAT IT WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK EAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOME +100 DEGREE
READINGS... ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST/WEST.

A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL TRY AND BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND HELP BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH A
RETURN OF SOME RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  92 /  10  10  30  40
HOBART OK         72  95  72  97 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           70  91  68  93 /  20  30  60  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  73  88 /   0  10  30  50
DURANT OK         73  98  74  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THICKER MID CLOUD WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF E OK TODAY
HOWEVER ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THICKER MID CLOUD WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF E OK TODAY
HOWEVER ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THICKER MID CLOUD WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF E OK TODAY
HOWEVER ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THICKER MID CLOUD WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF E OK TODAY
HOWEVER ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021641
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT OUN/OKC AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AS A MINOR DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF KWWR-KOKC
THROUGH 18Z. ADDED VCSH AT SEVERAL SITES. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IF SHRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA MAY FORM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING A SITE REMAIN LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 021613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 021613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A REGION OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NEARER THE CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH THUS FAR HAS
LIMITED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN THE
TREND. HOWEVER...THE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORT CENTER APPEARS
UNDERDONE THUS WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   94  68  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   93  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   93  72  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   96  68  99  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 021132
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY AROUND 10KT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  97  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68  99  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021132
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY AROUND 10KT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  97  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68  99  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021132
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY AROUND 10KT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  97  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68  99  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021132
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY AROUND 10KT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  97  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   92  68  94  69 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
F10   95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68  99  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF KWWR-KOKC
THROUGH 18Z. ADDED VCSH AT SEVERAL SITES. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IF SHRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA MAY FORM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING A SITE REMAIN LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF KWWR-KOKC
THROUGH 18Z. ADDED VCSH AT SEVERAL SITES. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IF SHRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA MAY FORM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING A SITE REMAIN LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF KWWR-KOKC
THROUGH 18Z. ADDED VCSH AT SEVERAL SITES. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IF SHRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA MAY FORM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING A SITE REMAIN LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF KWWR-KOKC
THROUGH 18Z. ADDED VCSH AT SEVERAL SITES. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IF SHRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA MAY FORM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING A SITE REMAIN LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020822
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
F10   94  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68 100  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020822
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
F10   94  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68 100  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020822
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
F10   94  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68 100  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020822
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM/DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE....WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   97  72  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   95  68  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   94  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
F10   94  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   98  68 100  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020819
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020819
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020819
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020819
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF TULSA
BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF CU FIELD...OR
LACK THEREOF. AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS DUE MAINLY TO VERY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THERE
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NW AR...THERE
IS WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH HAS
YIELDED A COUPLE OF WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
EARLY AUGUST ACROSS THE REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF TULSA
BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF CU FIELD...OR
LACK THEREOF. AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS DUE MAINLY TO VERY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THERE
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NW AR...THERE
IS WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH HAS
YIELDED A COUPLE OF WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
EARLY AUGUST ACROSS THE REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN OK NEAR AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. FOR NOW, ONLY VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS SINCE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS
REGARDING TSRA POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  20  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN OK NEAR AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. FOR NOW, ONLY VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS SINCE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS
REGARDING TSRA POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  20  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET NEAR GAG AND
WWR. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR
NOW AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER SPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET NEAR GAG AND
WWR. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR
NOW AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER SPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET NEAR GAG AND
WWR. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR
NOW AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER SPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET NEAR GAG AND
WWR. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR
NOW AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER SPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 012305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF TULSA
BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF CU FIELD...OR
LACK THEREOF. AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS DUE MAINLY TO VERY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THERE
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NW AR...THERE
IS WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH HAS
YIELDED A COUPLE OF WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
EARLY AUGUST ACROSS THE REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  97  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  94  71  96 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   67  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  93  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  92  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   68  97  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF TULSA
BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF CU FIELD...OR
LACK THEREOF. AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS DUE MAINLY TO VERY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THERE
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NW AR...THERE
IS WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH HAS
YIELDED A COUPLE OF WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
EARLY AUGUST ACROSS THE REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  97  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  94  71  96 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   67  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  93  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  92  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   68  97  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 012300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 012300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 012005
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  71  94  74 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   95  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  70  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   93  69  94  71 /  10   0  10   0
FYV   90  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   92  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   92  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  66  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
F10   92  72  92  74 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   95  68  97  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012005
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  71  94  74 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   95  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  70  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   93  69  94  71 /  10   0  10   0
FYV   90  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   92  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   92  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  66  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
F10   92  72  92  74 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   95  68  97  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



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