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000
FXUS64 KTSA 312016
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN PARTS OF
NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS DESPITE FULL AFTERNOON SUN. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CALM OR LIGHT EAST WINDS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS...A LIGHTER
FREEZE EXPECTED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY IN WC ARKANSAS.

HIGH MOVES EAST QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COOL FALL
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OK SAT NIGHT...WITH COLD TEMPS
AGAIN IN SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 1-2 INCHES BY TUE AFTERNOON.
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE EXCESSIVE TOTALS LIKELY BUT A MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL IN ANY CASE.

SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW
LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  55  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  55  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   27  56  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   20  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   21  52  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   23  51  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   26  54  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  52  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
F10   27  55  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  56  33  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14







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000
FXUS64 KOUN 312010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY... STARTING WITH OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... THEN RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND KEPT FREEZE
WARNING INTACT FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT. CURRENTLY... OUR STOUT BLOCKING
HIGH REMAINS WELL POSITIONED... WITH ITS AXIS FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS ALONG THE U.S. ROCKIES. LOOKING UP STREAM... COLD TEMPS ARE
ON THEIR WAY... WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY... WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AS THE ERN TROUGH PLUNGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN AND ERN OK... ALONG I-35 WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S... AS WINDS
WILL CALM AS THE SFC HIGH MEANDERS SWRD INTO THE OZARKS/ERN OK.
OVERNIGHT... WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SE/S THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN N TX... PICKING UP GRADUALLY THROUGH TMRW
MORNING. THEREFORE... ONLY EXPECT A NARROW WINDOW... MAYBE 2-3HRS OF
AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF WRN N TX
BEFORE TEMPS INCREASE. STILL... THOSE HEADING OUT SAT AM WILL NEED
TO GRAB THAT JACKET... AS WELL AS PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS
TONIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE H500 RIDGE BUILD WEST
ON THE HEELS OF THE STRONG TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THEN... INTO MONDAY... ANOTHER STRONG H500 TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... DECENT LL/MID-LVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN THE DOORWAY TO THE GULF
OPENED BY THE EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SERN U.S. A POSITIVELY
TILTED H500 TROUGH... AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH S/SE
THROUGH EARLY WED. GIVEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GUIDANCE...
UPPED PRECIP CHCS MON NIGHT-TUE AM... WITH AMOUNTS FORECAST ANYWHERE
FROM .50 TO 1.50... WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  59  41  67 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  61  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           29  59  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  56  41  66 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         30  58  38  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

02/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311735
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLOUD DECK 25-35 HND FEET SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR
MOVING SOUTH AND MIXING OUT BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. TAF SITES KMLC
KFSM AFFECTED. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE TRICK..WHILE COLLECTING TREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE KEEPING WARM.
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON RUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUD NOW OVER EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST AR WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND BE
SOUTH OF I-40 BY 1-2PM. CLOUD BREAKING UP SOUTHEAST DURING AFTERNOON.

RECORD LOW TEMP:  NOV 1ST    CURRENT FORECAST:

TUL 25 1991 & 1925           27 (24 RVS)
FSM 26 1993                  29
MLC 27 1993                  28
BVO 24 1931                  20
FYV 20 1993                  21

GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION TODAY. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE OF COOLER AIR FOR A
FEW HOURS. THE MOSTLY LIKELY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE MVFR CIGS ARE IN
NE OK AND NW AR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON IS KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP...SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. AT LEAST SOME COLD ADVECTION LOW CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY...IN ADDITION TO MODEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS...THAT THIS CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL GO MORE CONSERVATIVELY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHATEVER
CLOUDINESS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
AFTERNOON SUN WILL NOT HELP THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
MUCH...THOUGH...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION REMAINING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO HIGHS SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SOLIDLY MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PLUNGING TEMPERATURES. A
HARD FREEZE IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD CHOCTAW COUNTY TO THE
EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 LIKELY
AROUND HUGO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAYS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...AND MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAYS...DESPITE A LIKELY INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
HANDLING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT IS AGREED UPON IS THAT
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION RETURNING FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
ONGOING DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  55  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  56  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  57  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   20  53  36  63 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   21  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  52  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  55  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  53  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  56  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  57  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 311658
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MAINLY KPNC THROUGH 17Z...AND
MAY SPREAD INTO KWWR/KGAG AND KOKC/KOUN SITS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND MIXING OCCURS CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
TERMINALS WITH SCT/FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY 22-00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FREEZING WARNING TO COVER ALL BUT A FEW OF OUR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR CUT WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF COMPLETELY EXCEPT
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGD TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THICK AND PERSISTENT THEY WILL BE SO WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO LOW TEMP FORECAST ON MINS TONIGHT
WHICH ONLY CHANGES PREVIOUS FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES. GREATEST
DECREASE IN TEMP FORECAST WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR.
HARD FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FROM AROUND PONCA CITY AND ENID...DOWN
THROUGH STILLWATER AND AREAS EAST OF OKC.

MODEST WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RESPONDS TO INCOMING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WHERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DAY 7
AND BEYOND MAY NEED POPS ADDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  59  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           29  59  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  56  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         30  58  38  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

02/04/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311658
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MAINLY KPNC THROUGH 17Z...AND
MAY SPREAD INTO KWWR/KGAG AND KOKC/KOUN SITS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND MIXING OCCURS CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
TERMINALS WITH SCT/FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY 22-00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FREEZING WARNING TO COVER ALL BUT A FEW OF OUR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR CUT WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF COMPLETELY EXCEPT
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGD TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THICK AND PERSISTENT THEY WILL BE SO WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO LOW TEMP FORECAST ON MINS TONIGHT
WHICH ONLY CHANGES PREVIOUS FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES. GREATEST
DECREASE IN TEMP FORECAST WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR.
HARD FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FROM AROUND PONCA CITY AND ENID...DOWN
THROUGH STILLWATER AND AREAS EAST OF OKC.

MODEST WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RESPONDS TO INCOMING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WHERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DAY 7
AND BEYOND MAY NEED POPS ADDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  59  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           29  59  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  56  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         30  58  38  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

02/04/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE TRICK..WHILE COLLECTING TREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE KEEPING WARM.
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON RUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUD NOW OVER EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST AR WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND BE
SOUTH OF I-40 BY 1-2PM. CLOUD BREAKING UP SOUTHEAST DURING AFTERNOON.

RECORD LOW TEMP:  NOV 1ST    CURRENT FORECAST:

TUL 25 1991 & 1925           27 (24 RVS)
FSM 26 1993                  29
MLC 27 1993                  28
BVO 24 1931                  20
FYV 20 1993                  21

GW
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION TODAY. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE OF COOLER AIR FOR A
FEW HOURS. THE MOSTLY LIKELY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE MVFR CIGS ARE IN
NE OK AND NW AR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON IS KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP...SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. AT LEAST SOME COLD ADVECTION LOW CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY...IN ADDITION TO MODEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS...THAT THIS CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL GO MORE CONSERVATIVELY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHATEVER
CLOUDINESS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
AFTERNOON SUN WILL NOT HELP THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
MUCH...THOUGH...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION REMAINING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO HIGHS SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SOLIDLY MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PLUNGING TEMPERATURES. A
HARD FREEZE IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD CHOCTAW COUNTY TO THE
EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 LIKELY
AROUND HUGO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAYS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...AND MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAYS...DESPITE A LIKELY INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
HANDLING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT IS AGREED UPON IS THAT
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION RETURNING FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
ONGOING DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  29  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   57  28  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  20  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  21  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  24  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  27  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  24  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  28  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KOUN 311153 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MAINLY KPNC THROUGH 17Z...AND
MAY SPREAD INTO KWWR/KGAG AND KOKC/KOUN SITS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND MIXING OCCURS CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
TERMINALS WITH SCT/FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY 22-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FREEZING WARNING TO COVER ALL BUT A FEW OF OUR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR CUT WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF COMPLETELY EXCEPT
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGD TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THICK AND PERSISTENT THEY WILL BE SO WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO LOW TEMP FORECAST ON MINS TONIGHT
WHICH ONLY CHANGES PREVIOUS FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES. GREATEST
DECREASE IN TEMP FORECAST WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR.
HARD FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FROM AROUND PONCA CITY AND ENID...DOWN
THROUGH STILLWATER AND AREAS EAST OF OKC.

MODEST WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RESPONDS TO INCOMING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WHERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DAY 7
AND BEYOND MAY NEED POPS ADDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  29  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  31  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           56  29  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     53  24  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         63  30  58  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

06/99/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311026
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION TODAY. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE OF COOLER AIR FOR A
FEW HOURS. THE MOSTLY LIKELY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE MVFR CIGS ARE IN
NE OK AND NW AR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON IS KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP...SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. AT LEAST SOME COLD ADVECTION LOW CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY...IN ADDITION TO MODEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS...THAT THIS CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL GO MORE CONSERVATIVELY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHATEVER
CLOUDINESS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
AFTERNOON SUN WILL NOT HELP THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
MUCH...THOUGH...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION REMAINING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO HIGHS SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SOLIDLY MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PLUNGING TEMPERATURES. A
HARD FREEZE IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD CHOCTAW COUNTY TO THE
EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 LIKELY
AROUND HUGO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAYS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...AND MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAYS...DESPITE A LIKELY INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
HANDLING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT IS AGREED UPON IS THAT
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION RETURNING FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
ONGOING DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  29  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   57  28  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  20  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  21  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  24  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  27  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  24  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  28  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 310929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FREEZING WARNING TO COVER ALL BUT A FEW OF OUR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR CUT WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF COMPLETELY EXCEPT
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGD TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THICK AND PERSISTENT THEY WILL BE SO WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO LOW TEMP FORECAST ON MINS TONIGHT
WHICH ONLY CHANGES PREVIOUS FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES. GREATEST
DECREASE IN TEMP FORECAST WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR.
HARD FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FROM AROUND PONCA CITY AND ENID...DOWN
THROUGH STILLWATER AND AREAS EAST OF OKC.

MODEST WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RESPONDS TO INCOMING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WHERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DAY 7
AND BEYOND MAY NEED POPS ADDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  29  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  31  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           56  29  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     53  24  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         63  30  58  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

06/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310806
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON IS KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP...SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. AT LEAST SOME COLD ADVECTION LOW CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY...IN ADDITION TO MODEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS...THAT THIS CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL GO MORE CONSERVATIVELY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHATEVER
CLOUDINESS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
AFTERNOON SUN WILL NOT HELP THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
MUCH...THOUGH...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION REMAINING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO HIGHS SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SOLIDLY MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PLUNGING TEMPERATURES. A
HARD FREEZE IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD CHOCTAW COUNTY TO THE
EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 LIKELY
AROUND HUGO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAYS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...AND MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAYS...DESPITE A LIKELY INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
HANDLING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT IS AGREED UPON IS THAT
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION RETURNING FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
ONGOING DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  29  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   57  28  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  20  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  21  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  24  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  27  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  24  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  28  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FRIDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WERE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH AND REACH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS COULD ALSO
REACH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY AND WIND GRIDS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS LOWS SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 310348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER...AIR INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP A VERY COOL NIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER...AIR INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP A VERY COOL NIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310234
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WERE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH AND REACH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS COULD ALSO
REACH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY AND WIND GRIDS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS LOWS SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  58  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  59  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  50  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  49  22  53 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  48  24  52 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   45  55  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  49  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  62  32  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 310209
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
909 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER...AIR INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP A VERY COOL NIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302323
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE
ARKANSAS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OK AND INTO EXTREME NW
ARKANSAS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS. COLDEST AIR CONTINUES
TO LAG WELL BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT BUT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER E OK/W AR...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF FAR SE
OKLAHOMA. TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
ALSO HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THIS
LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND FREEZE WARNING TO ALL BUT
CHOCTAW COUNTY...WHERE A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY THERE AS WELL.

SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A MILDER NIGHT SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BY
THIS TIME WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED MON-TUE. SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302022
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OK AND INTO EXTREME NW
ARKANSAS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS. COLDEST AIR CONTINUES
TO LAG WELL BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT BUT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER E OK/W AR...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF FAR SE
OKLAHOMA. TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
ALSO HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THIS
LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND FREEZE WARNING TO ALL BUT
CHOCTAW COUNTY...WHERE A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY THERE AS WELL.

SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A MILDER NIGHT SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BY
THIS TIME WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED MON-TUE. SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  58  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  59  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  50  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  49  22  53 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  48  24  52 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   45  55  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  49  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  62  32  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KOUN 302009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY! A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HASTE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON..RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO
ARRIVE...SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT.
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN KEEPING WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH AND
WEST...AND ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE GOING FREEZE WARNING.
THE REAL IMPACT HERE WILL BE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS...SO GET THOSE IN
BEFORE YOU HIT THE HAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME LATE
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING A LARGE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST...PINPOINTING
EXACT LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE AT THIS TIME. JUST
KNOW YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY...COOL...AND LIKELY WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RESUME.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  53  27  56 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         48  64  33  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-026.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>017-021>025-027>032-035-038>043-046>048-
     051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301938 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE CU FIELD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTN... AND A FEW SHOWERS FINALLY POPPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EAST OF WICHITA FALLS THROUGH 2PM. ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY... AS PREVIOUS PRECIP/WX FORECAST WAS A TAD TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL AREA. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. QUICK LOOK AT BUFR SOUNDING FROM KSPS...
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED... AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY BE
SUPPORTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE THE FRONT ADVANCES S/SE. NO
LIGHTNING INDICATED WITH THIS INITIAL CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES
LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

14

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301713
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SE OK AND WC AR. ANY -RA/-TSRA
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY W-NW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AFTERNOON ZONES REFLECT SHIFTING LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY. LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW
BEHIND FRONT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION.
REST OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AFTERNOON ZONES REFLECT SHIFTING LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY. LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW
BEHIND FRONT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION.
REST OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 301701
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES
LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301701
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES
LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  57  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301528
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATE REFLECTED ADDING POPS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NE OK/ NW AR. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...WITH MOST SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. AT A MINIMUM...A
LATER UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO AMEND TEMPORAL WORDING FROM THE
ZONE TEXT...SO WILL ADDRESS OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS SHOULD THEY BE
REQUIRED AT THAT TIME.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KOUN 301218
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
718 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. A FEW CIGS AROUND 040 WILL IMPACT PNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  45  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         75  43  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  47  65  34 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     73  42  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         77  49  64  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER NICE/MILD DAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS INCREASE. FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF
THE SEASON EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FREEZE
WATCH AS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S.

WARMING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ WITH UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW PLUME
OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND
GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE TWO CONCERNING FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 300827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW OK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF TS ACROSS WESTERN N TX
WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT THEM. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OUT OF OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET.

DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE FREEZE WATCH FOR
SATURDAY MORNING FOR GRANT...KAY...NOBLE...AND PAYNE COUNTIES
WHERE THE DRIEST AIR IS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF
FROST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OK AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY...AS A POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL SUGGESTING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE (LEANING CLOSER
TOWARD THE GFSENS MEAN) BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY POPS WILL BE REASONABLE BY
TUES AM FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  45  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         75  43  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  47  65  34 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     73  42  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         77  49  64  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300804
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER NICE/MILD DAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS INCREASE. FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF
THE SEASON EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FREEZE
WATCH AS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S.

WARMING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ WITH UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW PLUME
OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND
GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE TWO CONCERNING FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  44  55  28 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   73  48  61  30 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   77  49  61  29 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   74  41  54  22 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   71  41  52  23 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   70  44  49  26 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   75  45  57  27 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   72  42  50  24 /  10   0   0   0
F10   75  47  57  28 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   76  47  65  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR
THE CWA...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN AID TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S. THOUGH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
OVERALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AND WILL
ADD ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO TEMP/WIND GRIDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 300432
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW...WINDS WILL
INITIALLY SHIFT GRADUALLY TO W/SW...THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO N/NW AS
THE FRONT PASSES. MOST SITES WILL SEE ONLY A WIND SHIFT...BUT
CLOUDS AT ABOUT 2500 TO 3500 FT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FROM KSPS
TO KOKC AND SE FROM THERE. ISOLATED TSRA MAY OCCUR NEAR THE RED
RIVER...MAINLY E OF KSPS...IN THE AFTERNOON...NEAR THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES DIFFER 10 TO 15 DEGREES DEPENDING ON SITING
AND WIND SPEEDS, BUT AS WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, MORE UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST ARE CURRENTLY NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300235
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TEMPERATURES DIFFER 10 TO 15 DEGREES DEPENDING ON SITING
AND WIND SPEEDS, BUT AS WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, MORE UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST ARE CURRENTLY NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR
THE CWA...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN AID TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S. THOUGH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
OVERALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AND WILL
ADD ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO TEMP/WIND GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  73  43  55 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   43  74  46  61 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   45  75  47  60 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   39  75  38  53 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  70  39  52 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  70  43  51 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   43  74  43  57 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   42  72  40  51 /   0  10   0   0
F10   45  75  45  57 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   43  75  46  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292330
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH A NEAR PERFECT
AUTUMN DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RULE TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS
COLD FRONT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS. A HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERLY PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PUTTING
AND END TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 292320
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALL OUR
TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 3000 FT AGL IS
LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT FROM KSPS/KLAW TO KOUN/KOKC. ISOLATED TSRA
MAY OCCUR IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE OK TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OVER THE CWA WE
WENT AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NAMELY PONCA
CITY AND STILLWATER AREAS...BUT A FREEZE NONETHELESS FARTHER
SOUTH. DRY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH ARRIVAL OF
MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS ARRIVAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW
THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IS LOW. MODEL BLENDED FORECAST DATA
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WE WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
CLOUD ISSUE AT HAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA FROM FALLING AS LOW AS LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST. WE WILL
HAVE THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO PREVENT FROST
FORMATION.

CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY CHANGES BEING A
DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECM DPROG/DT SHOWING FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...WITH
THE GFS MOST PRONOUNCED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23




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