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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS NE OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN TODAY TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...LEADING TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND A FAIRLY MINOR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD /ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT SATURDAY...BEHIND A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE AREA.
REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THAT THESE VALUES WILL GO
UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE SOME OF THE TIMING AND AREAL DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  57  78  62 /   0  10  40  70
FSM   78  56  79  58 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   77  57  77  62 /   0  10  20  60
BVO   76  53  76  60 /   0  10  50  70
FYV   74  50  74  55 /   0  10  20  60
BYV   74  52  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
MKO   77  55  77  60 /   0  10  40  70
MIO   76  55  75  59 /   0  10  30  60
F10   76  56  76  61 /   0  10  30  70
HHW   77  56  77  61 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191055
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCTED UNTIL 201200. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190759
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN TODAY TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...LEADING TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND A FAIRLY MINOR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD /ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT SATURDAY...BEHIND A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE AREA.
REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THAT THESE VALUES WILL GO
UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE SOME OF THE TIMING AND AREAL DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  57  78  62 /   0  10  40  70
FSM   78  56  79  58 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   77  57  77  62 /   0  10  20  60
BVO   76  53  76  60 /   0  10  50  70
FYV   74  50  74  55 /   0  10  20  60
BYV   74  52  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
MKO   77  55  77  60 /   0  10  40  70
MIO   76  55  75  59 /   0  10  30  60
F10   76  56  76  61 /   0  10  30  70
HHW   77  56  77  61 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190426
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
OTHER THAN SOME INSIGNIFICANT TWEAKS...THE 00Z FORECAST WAS LEFT
IN TACT. THE LOW LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DATA
NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SUPPORT FOG TONIGHT. THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. SCT CIRRUS WILL STREAM BY THRU THE PERIOD...IE VFR PREVAILS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WERE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN KANSAS AND
THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CONTINUE PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP LOW TEMPS
BY SATURDAY MORNING TO BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNINGS LOWS. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   42  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 190346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 01Z.

MBS

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 01Z.

MBS

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 190151
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WERE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN KANSAS AND
THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CONTINUE PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP LOW TEMPS
BY SATURDAY MORNING TO BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNINGS LOWS. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   42  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 182323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 182311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. DATA FROM VARIOUS MODELS INDICATES THE LOW LVLS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TONIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION. THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING TO
ERN OK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KTS AT THE NE OK SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NICE SPRING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. FIRE DANGER
THREAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A DRY AIR-MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE.

INITIAL UPPER WAVE/JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MID WEEK
WITH WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   43  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 182010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         53  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KTSA 182003
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NICE SPRING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. FIRE DANGER
THREAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A DRY AIR-MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE.

INITIAL UPPER WAVE/JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MID WEEK
WITH WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   43  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181659
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED OUT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  78  59  77 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         51  78  57  78 /   0  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  79  59  82 /   0  10  30  40
GAGE OK           52  78  56  79 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     52  80  60  78 /   0   0  20  50
DURANT OK         52  78  58  78 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181659
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED OUT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  78  59  77 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         51  78  57  78 /   0  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  79  59  82 /   0  10  30  40
GAGE OK           52  78  56  79 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     52  80  60  78 /   0   0  20  50
DURANT OK         52  78  58  78 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR TEMP DEWPOINT SKY CHANGES FOR UPDATED FORECAST.
A SURGE IN `SPRING FEVER` EXPECTED.               GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS AROUND 3-5SM...ARE
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH LOGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF ON A CHILLY NOTE...BUT A LATE RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW...SIGNALLING THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
SPRING GREENUP IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TOMORROW IN ANY AREAS WITH STILL CURED
FUELS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THIS...THERE
REALLY ARE NOT ANY SLAM DUNK DAYS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION TO RECEIVE
ANY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. INSTABILITY IS
DEFINITELY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE LEAVE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  51  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   74  52  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   73  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  46  79  55 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   71  45  74  51 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   70  47  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   74  51  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   72  49  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
F10   73  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   75  52  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS AROUND 3-5SM...ARE
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH LOGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF ON A CHILLY NOTE...BUT A LATE RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW...SIGNALLING THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
SPRING GREENUP IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TOMORROW IN ANY AREAS WITH STILL CURED
FUELS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THIS...THERE
REALLY ARE NOT ANY SLAM DUNK DAYS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION TO RECEIVE
ANY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. INSTABILITY IS
DEFINITELY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE LEAVE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  51  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   76  52  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   75  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   74  46  79  55 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   72  45  74  51 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   72  47  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   74  51  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  49  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
F10   74  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   75  52  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180830
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180830
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180830
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180830
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 180759
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF ON A CHILLY NOTE...BUT A LATE RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW...SIGNALLING THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
SPRING GREENUP IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TOMORROW IN ANY AREAS WITH STILL CURED
FUELS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THIS...THERE
REALLY ARE NOT ANY SLAM DUNK DAYS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION TO RECEIVE
ANY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. INSTABILITY IS
DEFINITELY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE LEAVE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  51  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   76  52  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   75  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   74  46  79  55 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   72  45  74  51 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   72  47  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   74  51  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  49  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
F10   74  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   75  52  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180436
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SINCE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS NE OK
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW...SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP. I HAVE THUS ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NE OK SITES AFT
10Z. WHATEVER FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT
SUNRISE FRIDAY. VFR CIGS AT THE OTHER SITES WILL CLEAR OUT AS
WELL. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL. SHOULD BE AN AVIATION
FRIENDLY 24 HOURS OVERALL.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING NEAR AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
EXITING FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
BORDER TO THE MID 40S FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS FOR EVENING
UPDATE...WILL TAKE OUT POPS AFTER 06Z...TWEAK TEMPS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  73  53  78 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   46  72  52  77 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   45  73  52  77 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   35  72  48  79 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   40  69  45  74 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   41  70  48  74 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   44  72  51  77 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   37  73  51  78 /  10   0   0  10
F10   45  72  52  77 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   48  73  53  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 180348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 17Z.

WEST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KHBR...KCSM...AND KGAG...BELIEVE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z. KSPS SHOULD STAY MVFR. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z.

EAST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KOKC...KLAW...KOUN...AND KPNC...
GENERALLY THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR THROUGH 15Z. DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 17Z.

WEST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KHBR...KCSM...AND KGAG...BELIEVE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z. KSPS SHOULD STAY MVFR. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z.

EAST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KOKC...KLAW...KOUN...AND KPNC...
GENERALLY THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR THROUGH 15Z. DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180252 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -RA WILL AFFECT KOKC
AND KOUN THROUGH 0130Z.

OTHER SITES...INCLUDING KSPS...KLAW...KHBR...KCSM...
KWWR...AND KGAG...GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 09Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR KLAW...KWWR...AND KGAG. DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR KSPS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 14-16Z. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z. ANY -RA/-DZ WILL END
BY 04Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  73  53  76 /  20  10  10   0
HOBART OK         45  73  52  75 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  76  55  77 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180252 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -RA WILL AFFECT KOKC
AND KOUN THROUGH 0130Z.

OTHER SITES...INCLUDING KSPS...KLAW...KHBR...KCSM...
KWWR...AND KGAG...GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 09Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR KLAW...KWWR...AND KGAG. DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR KSPS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 14-16Z. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z. ANY -RA/-DZ WILL END
BY 04Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  73  53  76 /  20  10  10   0
HOBART OK         45  73  52  75 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  76  55  77 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 180200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING NEAR AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
EXITING FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
BORDER TO THE MID 40S FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS FOR EVENING
UPDATE...WILL TAKE OUT POPS AFTER 06Z...TWEAK TEMPS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL FOR
NOW.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  73  53  78 /  20   0  10  10
FSM   46  72  52  77 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   45  73  52  77 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   35  72  48  79 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   40  69  45  74 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   41  70  48  74 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   44  72  51  77 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   37  73  51  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   45  72  52  77 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   48  73  53  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 172346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -RA WILL AFFECT KOKC
AND KOUN THROUGH 0130Z.

OTHER SITES...INCLUDING KSPS...KLAW...KHBR...KCSM...
KWWR...AND KGAG...GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 09Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR KLAW...KWWR...AND KGAG. DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR KSPS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 14-16Z. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z. ANY -RA/-DZ WILL END
BY 04Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 172346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -RA WILL AFFECT KOKC
AND KOUN THROUGH 0130Z.

OTHER SITES...INCLUDING KSPS...KLAW...KHBR...KCSM...
KWWR...AND KGAG...GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 09Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR KLAW...KWWR...AND KGAG. DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR KSPS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 14-16Z. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z. ANY -RA/-DZ WILL END
BY 04Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 172235
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THRU THE REGION TODAY. VFR CIGS BTWN
6K AND 10K WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...CLEARING FM W TO E
AFT 03Z. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR AT THE NE OK TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AS WELL. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BLO 10 KTS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF
FRONT AND THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET/LARGER SCALE ASCENT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG DRY LINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
DURING THIS TIME....WITH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOCATED
SOUTH OF AREA...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FRONT/SURFACE HEATING WITH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NICE WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT LEAST LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES SOUTH OF MAIN UPPER LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  73  53  78 /  20   0  10  10
FSM   46  72  52  77 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   45  73  52  77 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   37  72  48  79 /  20   0  10  10
FYV   40  69  45  74 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   41  70  48  74 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   44  72  51  77 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   40  73  51  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   45  72  52  77 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   48  73  53  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 172034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  73  53  76 /  30  10  10   0
HOBART OK         46  73  52  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  76  55  77 /  30  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  73  53  76 /  30  10  10   0
HOBART OK         46  73  52  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  76  55  77 /  30  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  73  53  76 /  30  10  10   0
HOBART OK         46  73  52  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  76  55  77 /  30  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  73  53  76 /  30  10  10   0
HOBART OK         46  73  52  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  76  55  77 /  30  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 171952
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF
FRONT AND THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET/LARGER SCALE ASCENT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG DRY LINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
DURING THIS TIME....WITH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOCATED
SOUTH OF AREA...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FRONT/SURFACE HEATING WITH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NICE WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT LEAST LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES SOUTH OF MAIN UPPER LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  72  53  76 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   46  72  52  76 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   45  73  52  75 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   37  72  48  78 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   40  69  45  73 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   41  70  48  73 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   44  72  51  75 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   40  73  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
F10   45  71  52  75 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   48  73  53  76 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 171738
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LOTS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME -RA TO THE SW 1/2 OR SO OF
OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF N TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO LOW MVFR OR
HIGH IFR LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM KSPS TO KLTS.
WINDS WILL TURN GENERALLY TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
ARE NOT ALREADY NE...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SE OVERNIGHT OR
TOMORROW MORNING. SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS BEEN PAINFULLY SLOW TO MOVE/BUILD SWD THIS MORNING...BUT
IS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO
MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SEE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH...BUT THIS IS NO DROUGHT
BUSTER. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...HAVE MODIFIED AFTERNOON POPS TO
DECREASE RAIN CHCS ALONG/EAST OF I-35...AND SHOW A SLOWER
TRANSLATION. ALSO OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAKE UPDATES TO HRLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. RAIN CHCS
WILL INCREASE FIRST NEAR WWR AND GAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVER
MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4 MILES. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH AND IS LOCATED FROM NEAR STILLWATER WSW TO NEAR
CHEYENNE. 800-700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE IS APPARENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE ONE AREA OF LIFT/FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT MAX AND MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS W/SW OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SFC FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL LIKELY TAKE
PLACE FROM AROUND 18-21Z NEAR SW OK. COULD SEE CLOSE TO 0.5 INCH
SOMEWHERE OUT WEST...BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW
THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FA TODAY. DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE NEAR
WESTERN N TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SUBTLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT CONTINUES THERE. RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE PASSING
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS AVG.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG...BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A LEE LOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z SUN. DO NOT EXPECT POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
CONSIDERING MOISTURE PROFILES AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SECOND WAVE ON ITS HEELS WILL RESULT IN POPS
STARTING OUT WEST AND SPREADING EAST DURING EASTER SUNDAY MORNING.
FINALLY...THE MAIN WAVE WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE WHERE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE.

THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NPAC. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TUES-THURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WED. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED
AFT/EVE OUT WEST NEAR A POSSIBLE DRYLINE...BUT WILL KEEP THURS DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  47  73  53 /  40  30  10  10
HOBART OK         57  46  73  52 /  60  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  52  76  55 /  50  30  10  10
GAGE OK           51  39  73  54 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  41  73  51 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         65  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 171706
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1206 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVER THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD
...RESULTING IN VFR CIGS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MAINLY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
SAND A FEW TWEAKS TO SHY CONDITION...REMAINDER OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LOOK
REASONABLE.

UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171541
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MAINLY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
SAND A FEW TWEAKS TO SHY CONDITION...REMAINDER OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LOOK
REASONABLE.

UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 171528
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS BEEN PAINFULLY SLOW TO MOVE/BUILD SWD THIS MORNING...BUT
IS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO
MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SEE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH...BUT THIS IS NO DROUGHT
BUSTER. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...HAVE MODIFIED AFTERNOON POPS TO
DECREASE RAIN CHCS ALONG/EAST OF I-35...AND SHOW A SLOWER
TRANSLATION. ALSO OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAKE UPDATES TO HRLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. RAIN CHCS
WILL INCREASE FIRST NEAR WWR AND GAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVER
MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4 MILES. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH AND IS LOCATED FROM NEAR STILLWATER WSW TO NEAR
CHEYENNE. 800-700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE IS APPARENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE ONE AREA OF LIFT/FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT MAX AND MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS W/SW OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SFC FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL LIKELY TAKE
PLACE FROM AROUND 18-21Z NEAR SW OK. COULD SEE CLOSE TO 0.5 INCH
SOMEWHERE OUT WEST...BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW
THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FA TODAY. DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE NEAR
WESTERN N TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SUBTLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT CONTINUES THERE. RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE PASSING
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS AVG.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG...BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A LEE LOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z SUN. DO NOT EXPECT POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
CONSIDERING MOISTURE PROFILES AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SECOND WAVE ON ITS HEELS WILL RESULT IN POPS
STARTING OUT WEST AND SPREADING EAST DURING EASTER SUNDAY MORNING.
FINALLY...THE MAIN WAVE WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE WHERE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE.

THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NPAC. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TUES-THURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WED. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED
AFT/EVE OUT WEST NEAR A POSSIBLE DRYLINE...BUT WILL KEEP THURS DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  47  73  53 /  40  30  10  10
HOBART OK         57  46  73  52 /  60  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  52  76  55 /  50  30  10  10
GAGE OK           51  39  73  54 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  41  73  51 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         65  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171528
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS BEEN PAINFULLY SLOW TO MOVE/BUILD SWD THIS MORNING...BUT
IS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO
MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SEE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH...BUT THIS IS NO DROUGHT
BUSTER. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...HAVE MODIFIED AFTERNOON POPS TO
DECREASE RAIN CHCS ALONG/EAST OF I-35...AND SHOW A SLOWER
TRANSLATION. ALSO OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAKE UPDATES TO HRLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. RAIN CHCS
WILL INCREASE FIRST NEAR WWR AND GAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVER
MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4 MILES. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH AND IS LOCATED FROM NEAR STILLWATER WSW TO NEAR
CHEYENNE. 800-700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE IS APPARENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE ONE AREA OF LIFT/FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT MAX AND MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS W/SW OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SFC FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL LIKELY TAKE
PLACE FROM AROUND 18-21Z NEAR SW OK. COULD SEE CLOSE TO 0.5 INCH
SOMEWHERE OUT WEST...BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW
THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FA TODAY. DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE NEAR
WESTERN N TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SUBTLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT CONTINUES THERE. RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE PASSING
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS AVG.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG...BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A LEE LOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z SUN. DO NOT EXPECT POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
CONSIDERING MOISTURE PROFILES AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SECOND WAVE ON ITS HEELS WILL RESULT IN POPS
STARTING OUT WEST AND SPREADING EAST DURING EASTER SUNDAY MORNING.
FINALLY...THE MAIN WAVE WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE WHERE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE.

THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NPAC. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TUES-THURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WED. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED
AFT/EVE OUT WEST NEAR A POSSIBLE DRYLINE...BUT WILL KEEP THURS DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  47  73  53 /  40  30  10  10
HOBART OK         57  46  73  52 /  60  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  52  76  55 /  50  30  10  10
GAGE OK           51  39  73  54 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  41  73  51 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         65  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23



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