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000
FXUS64 KTSA 101918
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
118 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The fire weather situation remains fairly marginal as far as any
upgrade of our current Fire Weather Watch is concerned so the plan
is to let the Watch ride. Dew points have increased substantially
from this morning, as have temperatures, and both continue to
increase early this afternoon. Current minimum relative humidities
are near 30 percent to the west of Tulsa, and it is likely that
the overall minimum humidities for this afternoon will be very
near 25 percent at a few locations, with corresponding highs near
the upgrade threshold of 65 degrees. The morning update has
matched what has occurred, temperature and dew point wise, so far
fairly well so no further update to the public products will be
forthcoming at this time. However, winds at the sites that are
nearest to warning criteria for temperatures and humidities have
not consistently been at or above the wind speed criterion,
reinforcing that this is a very marginal situation from a warning
standpoint. We will continue to monitor the observations and
their trends, and remain prepared for any localized upgrades if
they become necessary, even though that potential continues to
wane.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwest winds
gusting 20 to 25 mph will develop and continue through the
afternoon, diminishing around 00Z. A shift to north to northeast
winds will occur late tonight and into tomorrow morning as a weak
front pushes through the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

.UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather potential is once again the lone immediate
forecast concern, with conditions likely to approach marginal red
flag conditions for a short time this afternoon. With the surface
ridge axis pushing east of the forecast area, low level winds
will increase through the late morning and early afternoon,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Gusts near 25 mph
should occur for a couple of hours this afternoon before subsiding
with sunset. Main limiting factor with respect to fire weather is
how low the relative humidities will actually get this afternoon.
Existing airmass remains very dry, with dew points currently in
the teens across the entire forecast area. Short term models
continue to show some increase in the dew points through the day
with the onset of stronger southerly winds, although the most
recent observational and model data indicate this increase may be
slower than earlier thought. The big change to the going forecast
was to slow this increase through late morning and early
afternoon. The changes to the dew point forecast did not change
the earlier forecast minimum relative humidities, which continue
to be very near the 25 percent threshold for a Red Flag Warning.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch going for now, but expect to
make a decision on that headline in the next 2 to 3 hours,
depending on observational trends. Current updates are already
out, but at least one additional update will occur around noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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000
FXUS64 KOUN 101805
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
METEOROLOGICALLY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. ALTHOUGH AS
MENTIONED THIS MORNING... ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES BREAK OUT NEARBY. THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS AFFECTING ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS IS
DEFINITELY LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS... BUT SOMETHING FOR
PILOTS TO BE AWARE OF. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-
     033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/01



000
FXUS64 KOUN 101805
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
METEOROLOGICALLY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. ALTHOUGH AS
MENTIONED THIS MORNING... ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES BREAK OUT NEARBY. THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS AFFECTING ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS IS
DEFINITELY LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS... BUT SOMETHING FOR
PILOTS TO BE AWARE OF. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-
     033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KTSA 101653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1053 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwest winds
gusting 20 to 25 mph will develop and continue through the
afternoon, diminishing around 00Z. A shift to north to northeast
winds will occur late tonight and into tomorrow morning as a weak
front pushes through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather potential is once again the lone immediate
forecast concern, with conditions likely to approach marginal red
flag conditions for a short time this afternoon. With the surface
ridge axis pushing east of the forecast area, low level winds
will increase through the late morning and early afternoon,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Gusts near 25 mph
should occur for a couple of hours this afternoon before subsiding
with sunset. Main limiting factor with respect to fire weather is
how low the relative humidities will actually get this afternoon.
Existing airmass remains very dry, with dew points currently in
the teens across the entire forecast area. Short term models
continue to show some increase in the dew points through the day
with the onset of stronger southerly winds, although the most
recent observational and model data indicate this increase may be
slower than earlier thought. The big change to the going forecast
was to slow this increase through late morning and early
afternoon. The changes to the dew point forecast did not change
the earlier forecast minimum relative humidities, which continue
to be very near the 25 percent threshold for a Red Flag Warning.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch going for now, but expect to
make a decision on that headline in the next 2 to 3 hours,
depending on observational trends. Current updates are already
out, but at least one additional update will occur around noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 101546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
946 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather potential is once again the lone immediate
forecast concern, with conditions likely to approach marginal red
flag conditions for a short time this afternoon. With the surface
ridge axis pushing east of the forecast area, low level winds
will increase through the late morning and early afternoon,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Gusts near 25 mph
should occur for a couple of hours this afternoon before subsiding
with sunset. Main limiting factor with respect to fire weather is
how low the relative humidities will actually get this afternoon.
Existing airmass remains very dry, with dew points currently in
the teens across the entire forecast area. Short term models
continue to show some increase in the dew points through the day
with the onset of stronger southerly winds, although the most
recent observational and model data indicate this increase may be
slower than earlier thought. The big change to the going forecast
was to slow this increase through late morning and early
afternoon. The changes to the dew point forecast did not change
the earlier forecast minimum relative humidities, which continue
to be very near the 25 percent threshold for a Red Flag Warning.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch going for now, but expect to
make a decision on that headline in the next 2 to 3 hours,
depending on observational trends. Current updates are already
out, but at least one additional update will occur around noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 101124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 101124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 101124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 101121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 101016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 101002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  31  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  34  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  37  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  24  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  29  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  28  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  34  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   55  28  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  35  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  37  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 100531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1131 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable overnight...then increase from
the south Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



000
FXUS64 KTSA 100531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1131 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable overnight...then increase from
the south Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 100531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1131 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable overnight...then increase from
the south Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 100453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 100453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 100453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 100319 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 100227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 100227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 100227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 092320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 092320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...18



000
FXUS64 KTSA 092320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 092305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 092305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 092305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 092054
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 092033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   24  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   27  63  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  51  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   19  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   24  62  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   20  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   27  64  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   28  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 091653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1053 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty NW winds will
subside this evening, with a shift to a southerly direction by mid
to late morning tomorrow as a surface ridge axis passes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds developing once again across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Very low dew points across the
region will lead to low relative humidities once again this
afternoon, despite temperatures still running at near to just
below normal levels. Red flag conditions becoming increasingly
likely across west central Arkansas, and will be possible in far
northwest Arkansas. Main update to the going forecast has been to
upgrade the existing Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. In addition, tweaks to the sky cover to account
for the mid cloud deck over far western parts of the forecast area
that should slide southeastward during the day. Updated products
already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 091621
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 091536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
936 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds developing once again across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Very low dew points across the
region will lead to low relative humidities once again this
afternoon, despite temperatures still running at near to just
below normal levels. Red flag conditions becoming increasingly
likely across west central Arkansas, and will be possible in far
northwest Arkansas. Main update to the going forecast has been to
upgrade the existing Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. In addition, tweaks to the sky cover to account
for the mid cloud deck over far western parts of the forecast area
that should slide southeastward during the day. Updated products
already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 091536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
936 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds developing once again across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Very low dew points across the
region will lead to low relative humidities once again this
afternoon, despite temperatures still running at near to just
below normal levels. Red flag conditions becoming increasingly
likely across west central Arkansas, and will be possible in far
northwest Arkansas. Main update to the going forecast has been to
upgrade the existing Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. In addition, tweaks to the sky cover to account
for the mid cloud deck over far western parts of the forecast area
that should slide southeastward during the day. Updated products
already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



000
FXUS64 KTSA 091125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  26  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   47  24  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   38  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  26  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  22  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  30  62  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 091115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER...A BRISK NW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE ONCE VERTICAL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE
MORNING. TOWARD SUNSET...THE MIXING WILL AGAIN DIMINISH...AS WILL
THE SURFACE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GREATLY DIMINISHES...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZE DURING THE DAY. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS WORTHY OF A HEADLINE...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WILL BE ABRUPTLY WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP IT DRY...AND AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE WILL BE ABOVE-AVERAGE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

THE BACK-AND-FORTH TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH
THURSDAY TURNING COOLER...FRIDAY WARMER...AND SATURDAY
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...AS THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
CLIPS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODEL TIMING IS NOT YET VERY WELL COORDINATED.
THIS...PLUS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...RESULTS IN LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 091027
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GREATLY DIMINISHES...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZE DURING THE DAY. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS WORTHY OF A HEADLINE...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WILL BE ABRUPTLY WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP IT DRY...AND AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE WILL BE ABOVE-AVERAGE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

THE BACK-AND-FORTH TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH
THURSDAY TURNING COOLER...FRIDAY WARMER...AND SATURDAY
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...AS THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
CLIPS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODEL TIMING IS NOT YET VERY WELL COORDINATED.
THIS...PLUS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...RESULTS IN LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 091014
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  26  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   47  24  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   38  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  26  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  22  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  30  62  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 091014
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  26  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   47  24  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   38  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  26  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  22  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  30  62  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 090950
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
350 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by late
afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  26  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   47  24  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   38  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  26  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  22  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  30  62  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 090511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SOME IN THE MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOWER MINS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE LOW TEMPS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN.

WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE 9-10AM TIMEFRAME TOMORROW WILL BE
GUSTY...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 MPH RANGE...FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MID-LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND BECOME DUE NORTH. WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE A
BIT ELEVATED TUESDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH...MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 090457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1057 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
No changes made to the forecast other than to add a line at the
end. VFR conditions will prevail as a dry boundary layer remains
in place over the region in a NW flow pattern. Winds have backed
off gradually during the night...although a few places are still
gusting abv 15kts. Winds will be gusty again by 15Z Tuesday
morning...with some gusts in the 15 to 25kt range. Winds will
subside considerably by 00Z Tuesday evening.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have made several tweaks to the short-term grids to better
reflect current conditions and to account for the last
short term model guidance.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 090457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1057 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
No changes made to the forecast other than to add a line at the
end. VFR conditions will prevail as a dry boundary layer remains
in place over the region in a NW flow pattern. Winds have backed
off gradually during the night...although a few places are still
gusting abv 15kts. Winds will be gusty again by 15Z Tuesday
morning...with some gusts in the 15 to 25kt range. Winds will
subside considerably by 00Z Tuesday evening.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have made several tweaks to the short-term grids to better
reflect current conditions and to account for the last
short term model guidance.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 090457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1057 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
No changes made to the forecast other than to add a line at the
end. VFR conditions will prevail as a dry boundary layer remains
in place over the region in a NW flow pattern. Winds have backed
off gradually during the night...although a few places are still
gusting abv 15kts. Winds will be gusty again by 15Z Tuesday
morning...with some gusts in the 15 to 25kt range. Winds will
subside considerably by 00Z Tuesday evening.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have made several tweaks to the short-term grids to better
reflect current conditions and to account for the last
short term model guidance.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 090337 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOWER MINS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE LOW TEMPS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN.

WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE 9-10AM TIMEFRAME TOMORROW WILL BE
GUSTY...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 MPH RANGE...FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MID-LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND BECOME DUE NORTH. WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE A
BIT ELEVATED TUESDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH...MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 090337 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOWER MINS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE LOW TEMPS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN.

WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE 9-10AM TIMEFRAME TOMORROW WILL BE
GUSTY...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 MPH RANGE...FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MID-LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND BECOME DUE NORTH. WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE A
BIT ELEVATED TUESDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH...MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 090244
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
844 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Have made several tweaks to the short-term grids to better
reflect current conditions and to account for the last
short term model guidance.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 082340
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
540 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A very dry boundary layer will maintain VFR conditions thru the
TAF period. VFR cigs over in NW AR will scatter out early this
evening. Gusty NW winds will drop blo 15 kts sustained...but will
become gusty again aft 15Z Tuesday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds and corresponding heightened fire weather
concerns will continue through late afternoon before conditions
begin to improve into the evening hours. Will allow the Wind
Advisory to continue through the original expiration with no
extension necessary. Flurries ongoing in northwest Arkansas and
perhaps the far northeast corner of Oklahoma should also diminish
into the evening so will not extend mention of flurries into the
evening hours.

Conditions tomorrow should be similar to today`s, although winds
will be a bit less breezy, leading to a slight improvement in the
overall fire danger. Much warmer temperatures will arrive
Wednesday, especially for parts of eastern Oklahoma, as winds
become more west to southwest in advance of an approaching front.
The airmass immediately behind this front is not significantly
colder than the one preceding it, with the main change being a
shift to light northerly winds.

A much stronger front will move into the region Friday night and
into Saturday with below normal temperatures and very low dew
points to follow. Medium range models are more consistent on this
than they have been in the past few days. The cold air will not
last very long, as the trailing surface high quickly pushes into
the eastern half of the country.

The only chance of precipitation during the next week will be
across eastern portions of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday evening with a fast moving upper level system.
Temperatures may be cold enough that some of the precipitation may
fall as snow in northwest Arkansas before it ends. Chance of
wintry impacts are low at best.

Next week is likely to start on a warm note with a quick return to
strong southerly winds by Monday and more zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 082340
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
540 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A very dry boundary layer will maintain VFR conditions thru the
TAF period. VFR cigs over in NW AR will scatter out early this
evening. Gusty NW winds will drop blo 15 kts sustained...but will
become gusty again aft 15Z Tuesday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds and corresponding heightened fire weather
concerns will continue through late afternoon before conditions
begin to improve into the evening hours. Will allow the Wind
Advisory to continue through the original expiration with no
extension necessary. Flurries ongoing in northwest Arkansas and
perhaps the far northeast corner of Oklahoma should also diminish
into the evening so will not extend mention of flurries into the
evening hours.

Conditions tomorrow should be similar to today`s, although winds
will be a bit less breezy, leading to a slight improvement in the
overall fire danger. Much warmer temperatures will arrive
Wednesday, especially for parts of eastern Oklahoma, as winds
become more west to southwest in advance of an approaching front.
The airmass immediately behind this front is not significantly
colder than the one preceding it, with the main change being a
shift to light northerly winds.

A much stronger front will move into the region Friday night and
into Saturday with below normal temperatures and very low dew
points to follow. Medium range models are more consistent on this
than they have been in the past few days. The cold air will not
last very long, as the trailing surface high quickly pushes into
the eastern half of the country.

The only chance of precipitation during the next week will be
across eastern portions of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday evening with a fast moving upper level system.
Temperatures may be cold enough that some of the precipitation may
fall as snow in northwest Arkansas before it ends. Chance of
wintry impacts are low at best.

Next week is likely to start on a warm note with a quick return to
strong southerly winds by Monday and more zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 082340
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
540 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A very dry boundary layer will maintain VFR conditions thru the
TAF period. VFR cigs over in NW AR will scatter out early this
evening. Gusty NW winds will drop blo 15 kts sustained...but will
become gusty again aft 15Z Tuesday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds and corresponding heightened fire weather
concerns will continue through late afternoon before conditions
begin to improve into the evening hours. Will allow the Wind
Advisory to continue through the original expiration with no
extension necessary. Flurries ongoing in northwest Arkansas and
perhaps the far northeast corner of Oklahoma should also diminish
into the evening so will not extend mention of flurries into the
evening hours.

Conditions tomorrow should be similar to today`s, although winds
will be a bit less breezy, leading to a slight improvement in the
overall fire danger. Much warmer temperatures will arrive
Wednesday, especially for parts of eastern Oklahoma, as winds
become more west to southwest in advance of an approaching front.
The airmass immediately behind this front is not significantly
colder than the one preceding it, with the main change being a
shift to light northerly winds.

A much stronger front will move into the region Friday night and
into Saturday with below normal temperatures and very low dew
points to follow. Medium range models are more consistent on this
than they have been in the past few days. The cold air will not
last very long, as the trailing surface high quickly pushes into
the eastern half of the country.

The only chance of precipitation during the next week will be
across eastern portions of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday evening with a fast moving upper level system.
Temperatures may be cold enough that some of the precipitation may
fall as snow in northwest Arkansas before it ends. Chance of
wintry impacts are low at best.

Next week is likely to start on a warm note with a quick return to
strong southerly winds by Monday and more zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 082325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 082325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 082325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 082104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
304 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds and corresponding heightened fire weather
concerns will continue through late afternoon before conditions
begin to improve into the evening hours. Will allow the Wind
Advisory to continue through the original expiration with no
extension necessary. Flurries ongoing in northwest Arkansas and
perhaps the far northeast corner of Oklahoma should also diminish
into the evening so will not extend mention of flurries into the
evening hours.

Conditions tomorrow should be similar to today`s, although winds
will be a bit less breezy, leading to a slight improvement in the
overall fire danger. Much warmer temperatures will arrive
Wednesday, especially for parts of eastern Oklahoma, as winds
become more west to southwest in advance of an approaching front.
The airmass immediately behind this front is not significantly
colder than the one preceding it, with the main change being a
shift to light northerly winds.

A much stronger front will move into the region Friday night and
into Saturday with below normal temperatures and very low dew
points to follow. Medium range models are more consistent on this
than they have been in the past few days. The cold air will not
last very long, as the trailing surface high quickly pushes into
the eastern half of the country.

The only chance of precipitation during the next week will be
across eastern portions of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday evening with a fast moving upper level system.
Temperatures may be cold enough that some of the precipitation may
fall as snow in northwest Arkansas before it ends. Chance of
wintry impacts are low at best.

Next week is likely to start on a warm note with a quick return to
strong southerly winds by Monday and more zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22



000
FXUS64 KTSA 082104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
304 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds and corresponding heightened fire weather
concerns will continue through late afternoon before conditions
begin to improve into the evening hours. Will allow the Wind
Advisory to continue through the original expiration with no
extension necessary. Flurries ongoing in northwest Arkansas and
perhaps the far northeast corner of Oklahoma should also diminish
into the evening so will not extend mention of flurries into the
evening hours.

Conditions tomorrow should be similar to today`s, although winds
will be a bit less breezy, leading to a slight improvement in the
overall fire danger. Much warmer temperatures will arrive
Wednesday, especially for parts of eastern Oklahoma, as winds
become more west to southwest in advance of an approaching front.
The airmass immediately behind this front is not significantly
colder than the one preceding it, with the main change being a
shift to light northerly winds.

A much stronger front will move into the region Friday night and
into Saturday with below normal temperatures and very low dew
points to follow. Medium range models are more consistent on this
than they have been in the past few days. The cold air will not
last very long, as the trailing surface high quickly pushes into
the eastern half of the country.

The only chance of precipitation during the next week will be
across eastern portions of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday evening with a fast moving upper level system.
Temperatures may be cold enough that some of the precipitation may
fall as snow in northwest Arkansas before it ends. Chance of
wintry impacts are low at best.

Next week is likely to start on a warm note with a quick return to
strong southerly winds by Monday and more zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 082104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
304 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds and corresponding heightened fire weather
concerns will continue through late afternoon before conditions
begin to improve into the evening hours. Will allow the Wind
Advisory to continue through the original expiration with no
extension necessary. Flurries ongoing in northwest Arkansas and
perhaps the far northeast corner of Oklahoma should also diminish
into the evening so will not extend mention of flurries into the
evening hours.

Conditions tomorrow should be similar to today`s, although winds
will be a bit less breezy, leading to a slight improvement in the
overall fire danger. Much warmer temperatures will arrive
Wednesday, especially for parts of eastern Oklahoma, as winds
become more west to southwest in advance of an approaching front.
The airmass immediately behind this front is not significantly
colder than the one preceding it, with the main change being a
shift to light northerly winds.

A much stronger front will move into the region Friday night and
into Saturday with below normal temperatures and very low dew
points to follow. Medium range models are more consistent on this
than they have been in the past few days. The cold air will not
last very long, as the trailing surface high quickly pushes into
the eastern half of the country.

The only chance of precipitation during the next week will be
across eastern portions of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday evening with a fast moving upper level system.
Temperatures may be cold enough that some of the precipitation may
fall as snow in northwest Arkansas before it ends. Chance of
wintry impacts are low at best.

Next week is likely to start on a warm note with a quick return to
strong southerly winds by Monday and more zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 082040 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 082040 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 082040 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 082034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 7 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




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