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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 301731
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRYING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OKC/OUN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH RAIN AND A FEW STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...AXIS OF HIGH PWS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS COAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHICH IS GENERALLY EAST OF A 7H LOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE WAA.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID-LEVEL THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA. THIS MAY SHIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL RUN UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 81.

ON THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THE 7H TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  78  65  84 /  90  30  10  10
HOBART OK         66  81  64  86 /  70  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  83  67  88 /  50  20  10  10
GAGE OK           62  81  62  85 /  40  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     64  80  62  84 /  70  20   0  10
DURANT OK         66  78  66  83 /  90  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ012-013-
     016>020-022>032-040-042.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>011-
     014-015.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301731
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRYING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OKC/OUN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH RAIN AND A FEW STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...AXIS OF HIGH PWS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS COAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHICH IS GENERALLY EAST OF A 7H LOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE WAA.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID-LEVEL THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA. THIS MAY SHIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL RUN UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 81.

ON THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THE 7H TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  78  65  84 /  90  30  10  10
HOBART OK         66  81  64  86 /  70  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  83  67  88 /  50  20  10  10
GAGE OK           62  81  62  85 /  40  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     64  80  62  84 /  70  20   0  10
DURANT OK         66  78  66  83 /  90  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ012-013-
     016>020-022>032-040-042.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>011-
     014-015.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301559
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 301559
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRYING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OKC/OUN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH RAIN AND A FEW STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...AXIS OF HIGH PWS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS COAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHICH IS GENERALLY EAST OF A 7H LOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE WAA.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID-LEVEL THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA. THIS MAY SHIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL RUN UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 81.

ON THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THE 7H TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  65  78  65 /  90  90  30  10
HOBART OK         81  66  81  64 /  80  70  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  68  83  67 /  60  50  20  10
GAGE OK           71  62  81  62 /  90  40  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  64  80  62 /  90  70  20   0
DURANT OK         83  66  78  66 /  60  90  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-012-018-
     019-024-025-027>029-040.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-013-020-
     026-030>032-042.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRYING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OKC/OUN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH RAIN AND A FEW STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...AXIS OF HIGH PWS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS COAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHICH IS GENERALLY EAST OF A 7H LOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE WAA.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID-LEVEL THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA. THIS MAY SHIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL RUN UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 81.

ON THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THE 7H TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  65  78  65 /  90  90  30  10
HOBART OK         81  66  81  64 /  80  70  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  68  83  67 /  60  50  20  10
GAGE OK           71  62  81  62 /  90  40  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  64  80  62 /  90  70  20   0
DURANT OK         83  66  78  66 /  60  90  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-012-018-
     019-024-025-027>029-040.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-013-020-
     026-030>032-042.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO E
OK AND W AR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL THE TERMINALS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIODS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...LIKELY TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT
BVO AND AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR MLC/FSM. TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
MLC/FSM...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS...JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO E
OK AND W AR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL THE TERMINALS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIODS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...LIKELY TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT
BVO AND AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR MLC/FSM. TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
MLC/FSM...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS...JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO E
OK AND W AR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL THE TERMINALS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIODS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...LIKELY TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT
BVO AND AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR MLC/FSM. TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
MLC/FSM...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS...JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO E
OK AND W AR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL THE TERMINALS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIODS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...LIKELY TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT
BVO AND AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR MLC/FSM. TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
MLC/FSM...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS...JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 300940
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
440 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...AXIS OF HIGH PWS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS COAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHICH IS GENERALLY EAST OF A 7H LOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE WAA.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID-LEVEL THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA. THIS MAY SHIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL RUN UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 81.

ON THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THE 7H TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  65  78  65 /  90  90  30  10
HOBART OK         81  66  81  64 /  80  70  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  68  83  67 /  60  50  20  10
GAGE OK           71  62  81  62 /  90  40  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  64  80  62 /  90  70  20   0
DURANT OK         83  66  78  66 /  60  90  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-012-018-
     019-024-025-027>029-040.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-013-020-
     026-030>032-042.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300940
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
440 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...AXIS OF HIGH PWS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS COAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHICH IS GENERALLY EAST OF A 7H LOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE WAA.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID-LEVEL THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA. THIS MAY SHIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL RUN UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 81.

ON THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THE 7H TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  65  78  65 /  90  90  30  10
HOBART OK         81  66  81  64 /  80  70  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  68  83  67 /  60  50  20  10
GAGE OK           71  62  81  62 /  90  40  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  64  80  62 /  90  70  20   0
DURANT OK         83  66  78  66 /  60  90  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-012-018-
     019-024-025-027>029-040.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-013-020-
     026-030>032-042.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  62  79  60 / 100 100  30  10
FSM   75  64  75  61 /  80 100  70  20
MLC   74  63  74  62 /  70 100  50  20
BVO   75  61  81  59 /  90  90  20   0
FYV   75  60  75  57 /  70  80  50  20
BYV   75  61  76  58 /  50  70  50  20
MKO   73  62  76  60 / 100 100  50  20
MIO   76  61  80  59 /  70  60  40  10
F10   73  62  76  61 / 100 100  50  10
HHW   78  65  75  63 /  50  80  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  62  79  60 / 100 100  30  10
FSM   75  64  75  61 /  80 100  70  20
MLC   74  63  74  62 /  70 100  50  20
BVO   75  61  81  59 /  90  90  20   0
FYV   75  60  75  57 /  70  80  50  20
BYV   75  61  76  58 /  50  70  50  20
MKO   73  62  76  60 / 100 100  50  20
MIO   76  61  80  59 /  70  60  40  10
F10   73  62  76  61 / 100 100  50  10
HHW   78  65  75  63 /  50  80  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 300449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED A
BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS OVER WRN/CNTRL OK TERMINALS. THE HEAVIER
RA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS LOOK TO AFFECT KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KCSM/KHBR IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...AND FROM 12Z TO AROUND 18Z
FARTHER EAST. PERSISTENT MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
RA AND OCCASIONAL TSRA. A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL PROMOTE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC...AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS BEYOND 18Z WED. KSPS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST SHRA/TSRA...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY OCCUR FROM 10Z TO 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED A
BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS OVER WRN/CNTRL OK TERMINALS. THE HEAVIER
RA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS LOOK TO AFFECT KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KCSM/KHBR IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...AND FROM 12Z TO AROUND 18Z
FARTHER EAST. PERSISTENT MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
RA AND OCCASIONAL TSRA. A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL PROMOTE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC...AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS BEYOND 18Z WED. KSPS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST SHRA/TSRA...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY OCCUR FROM 10Z TO 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED A
BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS OVER WRN/CNTRL OK TERMINALS. THE HEAVIER
RA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS LOOK TO AFFECT KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KCSM/KHBR IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...AND FROM 12Z TO AROUND 18Z
FARTHER EAST. PERSISTENT MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
RA AND OCCASIONAL TSRA. A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL PROMOTE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC...AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS BEYOND 18Z WED. KSPS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST SHRA/TSRA...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY OCCUR FROM 10Z TO 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED A
BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS OVER WRN/CNTRL OK TERMINALS. THE HEAVIER
RA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS LOOK TO AFFECT KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KCSM/KHBR IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...AND FROM 12Z TO AROUND 18Z
FARTHER EAST. PERSISTENT MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
RA AND OCCASIONAL TSRA. A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL PROMOTE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC...AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS BEYOND 18Z WED. KSPS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST SHRA/TSRA...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY OCCUR FROM 10Z TO 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITONS BECOMING MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ENGULFING THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITONS BECOMING MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ENGULFING THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITONS BECOMING MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ENGULFING THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITONS BECOMING MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ENGULFING THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 300341 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300341 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300341 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300341 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300232
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300232
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18







000
FXUS64 KOUN 300006 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
706 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING. TWEAKED HOURLY
ELEMENTS THIS EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AS IT MOVED INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
10 PM THIS EVENING. THUS...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
PANHANDLES INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WILL NOT ALTER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...
THOUGH APPEARS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR LATER THAN 10 PM TONIGHT...
MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4 PM WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL RATES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE TOO EXCESSIVE...NO MORE THAN 3 INCHES
PER HOUR...DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL DURATION MAY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS...WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS AND ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...IN
THE 90 TO 99 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OTHER ELEMENTS THIS EVENING WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
FIRST AFFECT KGAG/KWWR AND GRADUALLY WORK EAST TO KCSM/KHBR.
GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF KLAW/KSPS.
SHRA/OCCASIONAL TSRA WILL BRING REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM 08Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AS LOW LEVEL COOL. -RA AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300006 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
706 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING. TWEAKED HOURLY
ELEMENTS THIS EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AS IT MOVED INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
10 PM THIS EVENING. THUS...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
PANHANDLES INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WILL NOT ALTER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...
THOUGH APPEARS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR LATER THAN 10 PM TONIGHT...
MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4 PM WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL RATES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE TOO EXCESSIVE...NO MORE THAN 3 INCHES
PER HOUR...DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL DURATION MAY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS...WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS AND ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...IN
THE 90 TO 99 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OTHER ELEMENTS THIS EVENING WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
FIRST AFFECT KGAG/KWWR AND GRADUALLY WORK EAST TO KCSM/KHBR.
GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF KLAW/KSPS.
SHRA/OCCASIONAL TSRA WILL BRING REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM 08Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AS LOW LEVEL COOL. -RA AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 292336
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
FIRST AFFECT KGAG/KWWR AND GRADUALLY WORK EAST TO KCSM/KHBR.
GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF KLAW/KSPS.
SHRA/OCCASIONAL TSRA WILL BRING REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM 08Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AS LOW LEVEL COOL. -RA AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 292336
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
FIRST AFFECT KGAG/KWWR AND GRADUALLY WORK EAST TO KCSM/KHBR.
GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF KLAW/KSPS.
SHRA/OCCASIONAL TSRA WILL BRING REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM 08Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AS LOW LEVEL COOL. -RA AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WILL VISIBILITIES
DUE TO RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WILL VISIBILITIES
DUE TO RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 292049
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 292049
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS/LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS/LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 291745
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL AFFECT CSM AND HBR
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. LATER THIS EVENING...A
STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  70  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  60  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  40  30  50  30
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  80  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  40  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  30  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291745
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL AFFECT CSM AND HBR
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. LATER THIS EVENING...A
STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  70  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  60  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  40  30  50  30
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  80  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  40  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  30  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 291502
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  10  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  70  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  40  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  50 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291502
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  10  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  70  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  40  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  50 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291145
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE STORMS...MAY IMPACT GAG/WWR AFTER 5/6Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 18 TO 20 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT THE OK TERMINALS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER
08-09Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
OK TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION WITHIN THE MONSOONAL
FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WED/THURS. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES RESPOND WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING. FURTHERMORE AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALIGNS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PRECIP WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES FORECAST. THE RESULTANT PRECIP PATTERN WILL TAKE THE SHAPE
OF A CYCLONE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER WITH AN EXPANDING WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FOLLOWED BY A REGION OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT WITH THE LATEST DATA TRENDING NORTHWARD AND A BIT
HEAVIER WITH THE OVERALL AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED HOWEVER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY SEEM LESS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REQUIRE A
DOUBLE TAKE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY.

CONDITIONS DRY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE NORMALLY PREVALENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT FAILS TO REORGANIZE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290855
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION WITHIN THE MONSOONAL
FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WED/THURS. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES RESPOND WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING. FURTHERMORE AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALIGNS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PRECIP WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES FORECAST. THE RESULTANT PRECIP PATTERN WILL TAKE THE SHAPE
OF A CYCLONE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER WITH AN EXPANDING WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FOLLOWED BY A REGION OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT WITH THE LATEST DATA TRENDING NORTHWARD AND A BIT
HEAVIER WITH THE OVERALL AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED HOWEVER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY SEEM LESS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REQUIRE A
DOUBLE TAKE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY.

CONDITIONS DRY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE NORMALLY PREVALENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT FAILS TO REORGANIZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  67  71  61 /   0  30 100  80
FSM   88  66  75  64 /   0  10  70  90
MLC   89  66  73  64 /   0  50  70  90
BVO   88  64  73  58 /   0  20  70  60
FYV   84  61  73  57 /   0  10  60  80
BYV   83  59  74  58 /   0   0  50  60
MKO   88  66  70  61 /   0  20 100  80
MIO   85  62  75  60 /   0  10  60  40
F10   88  65  69  62 /   0  50  90  90
HHW   89  68  77  65 /   0  20  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 12Z
TO 15Z TUES...BECOMING SOUTHERLY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND TRACK EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 18Z.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL THUNDER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST...AFFECTING
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
OKC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT STILL IN
SOME OF THE MODELS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GOING POPS.
LATEST WRF MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECM AND BRINGING AXIS OF
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         67  84  66  82 /  30  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         70  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 290254
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
OKC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT STILL IN
SOME OF THE MODELS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GOING POPS.
LATEST WRF MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECM AND BRINGING AXIS OF
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         67  84  66  82 /  30  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         70  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290254
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
OKC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT STILL IN
SOME OF THE MODELS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GOING POPS.
LATEST WRF MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECM AND BRINGING AXIS OF
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         67  84  66  82 /  30  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         70  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290238
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290238
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 282319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 282318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 282318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282110
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282110
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



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