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000
FXUS64 KOUN 242347
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
647 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
25/00Z TAF discussion follows.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail this forecast period along with
southerly winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The forecast challenge of the day is determining rain chances
over the next several days. Locally heavy rainfall and small scale
flooding may be a concern Sunday and Monday.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight, think the air will remain
capped with no storms forming. Cloud cover has limited heating
north of a Quanah Texas to Lawton to Seminole line so far today.
Thus, removed rain chances during this time frame.

Saturday, hot and mostly sunny conditions are expected. Think the
air will remained capped during the daytime hours, except perhaps
far northwestern Oklahoma towards sunset. Went with the warmer
side of guidance highs thinking sunshine will be abundant. Heat
indices will rise to near or just above 100 degrees by the
afternoon hours, though think they will stay below advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. Some locations mainly over western and
northern Oklahoma should reach the 100 degree mark.

Saturday night, a weakening complex of storms may affect
northwestern Oklahoma, where rain chances 20-40% were kept. Locally
heavy rainfall would be the main hazard, though gusty winds may be
possible as well. This complex should move east or southeastward
through the night. Moisture will be increasing across the area.
Would not be surprised if there were a few storms forming towards
sunrise near the Red River.

Sunday and Monday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be expected across the area. Kept rain chances 20-50%,
favoring north central Oklahoma on Sunday and locations east of
I-35 on Monday. Moisture will be more abundant with precipitable
water values approaching 2", which is near the climatological
maximum for late June. Any storm will be a slow mover and could
produce very heavy rainfall as well as flash flooding with
rainfall rates 2-4"/hr. Do not expect all day rains with many more
dry hours than wet ones. Storm coverage will be limited due to
weak shear. Gusty winds may be possible as well, though severe
potential appears to be rather low due to the weak shear. Clouds
and rain may keep temperatures down a bit, though temperatures
should be near or slightly above average.

Tuesday through next Friday, kept chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Exact timing and coverage of rainfall
remain uncertain. The mid/upper level flow is forecast to
strengthen and become northwesterly by the end of the week, which
may favor organized strong to perhaps severe complexes of storms
with heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains.
Slightly cooler temperatures may result during this time frame.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  94  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         73  97  74  95 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  97  75  94 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           72  98  69  93 /  10  10  20  30
Ponca City OK     75  96  75  95 /   0   0  20  40
Durant OK         75  93  76  93 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11



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000
FXUS64 KTSA 242054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
354 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible the next
couple hours across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail tonight through Saturday night
as an upper ridge builds back over the area.

The upper ridge will weaken and shift west Sunday into next week,
allowing a frontal boundary to push south across the area Monday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front, and
temperatures will fall back to near the seasonal normals.

Wednesday will be dry before another frontal boundary moves across
the area Thursday bringing additional shower and thunderstorm
chances. Below normal temperatures will follow the passage of this
front late next week, with northwest flow aloft becoming more
conducive for storm complexes to roll southeast across the area
from time to time heading into next weekend.

Went a bit warmer than most guidance temperatures the next couple
days, in line with the warmer ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  78  97 /  10   0  10  20
FSM   74  96  76  98 /  10   0  10  20
MLC   72  93  74  95 /  10   0  10  20
BVO   71  94  73  96 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   69  92  71  94 /  10   0  10  20
BYV   70  93  72  95 /  10   0  10  20
MKO   72  94  74  96 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   71  93  73  95 /  10   0  10  20
F10   72  93  74  95 /  10   0  10  20
HHW   72  93  74  95 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241929
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
229 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast challenge of the day is determining rain chances
over the next several days. Locally heavy rainfall and small scale
flooding may be a concern Sunday and Monday.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight, think the air will remain
capped with no storms forming. Cloud cover has limited heating
north of a Quanah Texas to Lawton to Seminole line so far today.
Thus, removed rain chances during this time frame.

Saturday, hot and mostly sunny conditions are expected. Think the
air will remained capped during the daytime hours, except perhaps
far northwestern Oklahoma towards sunset. Went with the warmer
side of guidance highs thinking sunshine will be abundant. Heat
indices will rise to near or just above 100 degrees by the
afternoon hours, though think they will stay below advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. Some locations mainly over western and
northern Oklahoma should reach the 100 degree mark.

Saturday night, a weakening complex of storms may affect
northwestern Oklahoma, where rain chances 20-40% were kept. Locally
heavy rainfall would be the main hazard, though gusty winds may be
possible as well. This complex should move east or southeastward
through the night. Moisture will be increasing across the area.
Would not be surprised if there were a few storms forming towards
sunrise near the Red River.

Sunday and Monday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be expected across the area. Kept rain chances 20-50%,
favoring north central Oklahoma on Sunday and locations east of
I-35 on Monday. Moisture will be more abundant with precipitable
water values approaching 2", which is near the climatological
maximum for late June. Any storm will be a slow mover and could
produce very heavy rainfall as well as flash flooding with
rainfall rates 2-4"/hr. Do not expect all day rains with many more
dry hours than wet ones. Storm coverage will be limited due to
weak shear. Gusty winds may be possible as well, though severe
potential appears to be rather low due to the weak shear. Clouds
and rain may keep temperatures down a bit, though temperatures
should be near or slightly above average.

Tuesday through next Friday, kept chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Exact timing and coverage of rainfall
remain uncertain. The mid/upper level flow is forecast to
strengthen and become northwesterly by the end of the week, which
may favor organized strong to perhaps severe complexes of storms
with heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains.
Slightly cooler temperatures may result during this time frame.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  94  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         73  97  74  95 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  97  75  94 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           72  98  69  93 /  10  10  20  30
Ponca City OK     75  96  75  95 /   0   0  20  40
Durant OK         75  93  76  93 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241929
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
229 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast challenge of the day is determining rain chances
over the next several days. Locally heavy rainfall and small scale
flooding may be a concern Sunday and Monday.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight, think the air will remain
capped with no storms forming. Cloud cover has limited heating
north of a Quanah Texas to Lawton to Seminole line so far today.
Thus, removed rain chances during this time frame.

Saturday, hot and mostly sunny conditions are expected. Think the
air will remained capped during the daytime hours, except perhaps
far northwestern Oklahoma towards sunset. Went with the warmer
side of guidance highs thinking sunshine will be abundant. Heat
indices will rise to near or just above 100 degrees by the
afternoon hours, though think they will stay below advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. Some locations mainly over western and
northern Oklahoma should reach the 100 degree mark.

Saturday night, a weakening complex of storms may affect
northwestern Oklahoma, where rain chances 20-40% were kept. Locally
heavy rainfall would be the main hazard, though gusty winds may be
possible as well. This complex should move east or southeastward
through the night. Moisture will be increasing across the area.
Would not be surprised if there were a few storms forming towards
sunrise near the Red River.

Sunday and Monday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be expected across the area. Kept rain chances 20-50%,
favoring north central Oklahoma on Sunday and locations east of
I-35 on Monday. Moisture will be more abundant with precipitable
water values approaching 2", which is near the climatological
maximum for late June. Any storm will be a slow mover and could
produce very heavy rainfall as well as flash flooding with
rainfall rates 2-4"/hr. Do not expect all day rains with many more
dry hours than wet ones. Storm coverage will be limited due to
weak shear. Gusty winds may be possible as well, though severe
potential appears to be rather low due to the weak shear. Clouds
and rain may keep temperatures down a bit, though temperatures
should be near or slightly above average.

Tuesday through next Friday, kept chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Exact timing and coverage of rainfall
remain uncertain. The mid/upper level flow is forecast to
strengthen and become northwesterly by the end of the week, which
may favor organized strong to perhaps severe complexes of storms
with heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains.
Slightly cooler temperatures may result during this time frame.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  94  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         73  97  74  95 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  97  75  94 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           72  98  69  93 /  10  10  20  30
Ponca City OK     75  96  75  95 /   0   0  20  40
Durant OK         75  93  76  93 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241722
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 18 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Chances of SHRA/TSRA are too low to mention at any site.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 915 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated the probability of precipitation/weather/sky forecast
through this morning.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms have rapidly dissipated this morning with the
veering and weakening of the low-level jet, so opted to remove
the mention of showers and storms. Kept a mention of sprinkles
where ongoing mid-level radar echoes are located.

For this afternoon, the latest convective-allowing models
(HRRR/HRRRX/TTU WRF/4 KM NAM) are not developing much if any
convection across the area. Mid-level temperatures are forecast to
warm through the day, which should strengthen the cap. Therefore,
if any storms do develop, they most likely would be near any
remnant outflow boundaries.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
northern OK late tonight. The first moved out of the high plains
and into SW KS/NW OK and is being supported by the LLJ. The second
is located from around Enid northeastward to Ponca City and is
likely the result of fairly stout isentropic ascent along a
remnant outflow boundary. This ascent is expected to continue
through most of the night, which will likley result in
significant localized flash flooding especially over Kay county
where DP is estimating totals exceeding 4 inches already.

The previously mentioned activity should wane during the late
morning. Then, later this afternoon, isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms may briefly return. The question is where exactly.
For now it appears the most likely area will be across central OK
where outflow boundaries will be present.

It appears dry for most Saturday with the exception of northern
OK again as a cold front approaches from the north. By Sunday
afternoon, chances will increase a bit across most of the rest of
the region as an upper low lifts out of west TX and the front
stalls near the KS/OK border. Given the weak flow aloft, the main
threat with this activity will be localized flooding.

By early next week, a mid to upper trough will dig into the NW
CONUS and the ridge will shift over the Rockies leaving our
region in northerly flow aloft. Several mid to upper shortwave
troughs are expected within this flow through next week, possibly
continuing into next weekend, and will likely result in at least
one complex of storms impacting the region before Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  94  75 /  20   0   0  10
Hobart OK         96  74  97  75 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  95  75  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  73  98  71 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     94  76  96  76 /  20   0   0  10
Durant OK         93  74  93  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241710
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR cigs to remain across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this afternoon. Remaining TAF elements to remain VFR
through the entire period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 910 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scaled back pops across the northern zones as areal coverage continues
to lessen. The surface boundary that focused convection overnight
continues to retreat to the north in response to rising mid level
heights. Will leave afternoon pops as they are to account for any
localized boundaries that my linger. Expect high clouds to thin
some as the day progresses across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. May have to tweak temperatures in those locations which
would require a later update...but for now will monitor trends.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...23

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241415
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
915 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated the probability of precipitation/weather/sky forecast
through this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms have rapidly dissipated this morning with the
veering and weakening of the low-level jet, so opted to remove
the mention of showers and storms. Kept a mention of sprinkles
where ongoing mid-level radar echoes are located.

For this afternoon, the latest convective-allowing models
(HRRR/HRRRX/TTU WRF/4 KM NAM) are not developing much if any
convection across the area. Mid-level temperatures are forecast to
warm through the day, which should strengthen the cap. Therefore,
if any storms do develop, they most likely would be near any
remnant outflow boundaries.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period, although a few storms
will remain present near PNC until ~14Z. Scattered cumulus are
again expected this afternoon along with some isolated showers and
storms. However, confidence is way too low to include any mention
of TSRA in the TAFs at this time. Winds will increase from the
south early this afternoon and then decrease around sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
northern OK late tonight. The first moved out of the high plains
and into SW KS/NW OK and is being supported by the LLJ. The second
is located from around Enid northeastward to Ponca City and is
likely the result of fairly stout isentropic ascent along a
remnant outflow boundary. This ascent is expected to continue
through most of the night, which will likley result in
significant localized flash flooding especially over Kay county
where DP is estimating totals exceeding 4 inches already.

The previously mentioned activity should wane during the late
morning. Then, later this afternoon, isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms may briefly return. The question is where exactly.
For now it appears the most likely area will be across central OK
where outflow boundaries will be present.

It appears dry for most Saturday with the exception of northern
OK again as a cold front approaches from the north. By Sunday
afternoon, chances will increase a bit across most of the rest of
the region as an upper low lifts out of west TX and the front
stalls near the KS/OK border. Given the weak flow aloft, the main
threat with this activity will be localized flooding.

By early next week, a mid to upper trough will dig into the NW
CONUS and the ridge will shift over the Rockies leaving our
region in northerly flow aloft. Several mid to upper shortwave
troughs are expected within this flow through next week, possibly
continuing into next weekend, and will likely result in at least
one complex of storms impacting the region before Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  94  75 /  20   0   0  10
Hobart OK         96  74  97  75 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  95  75  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  73  98  71 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     94  76  96  76 /  20   0   0  10
Durant OK         93  74  93  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241410
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scaled back pops across the northern zones as areal coverage continues
to lessen. The surface boundary that focused convection overnight
continues to retreat to the north in response to rising mid level
heights. Will leave afternoon pops as they are to account for any
localized boundaries that my linger. Expect high clouds to thin
some as the day progresses across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. May have to tweak temperatures in those locations which
would require a later update...but for now will monitor trends.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241410
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scaled back pops across the northern zones as areal coverage continues
to lessen. The surface boundary that focused convection overnight
continues to retreat to the north in response to rising mid level
heights. Will leave afternoon pops as they are to account for any
localized boundaries that my linger. Expect high clouds to thin
some as the day progresses across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. May have to tweak temperatures in those locations which
would require a later update...but for now will monitor trends.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241108
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection along near the OK / KS border may gradually
expand eastward while also reinforcing a weak boundary across NE
OK. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm
chances this afternoon. Outside of any convection VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...a surface boundary was positions from the
Oklahoma Texas Panhandles to Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri
into the Ohio River Valley. Along this boundary...areas of
convection were ongoing from the Texas Panhandle to Southwest
Kansas...and south of the boundary across North Central Oklahoma
and also far Northeast Oklahoma. Across the rest of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...mostly clear to overcast high
clouds were common early this morning.

Through the late morning hours today...the convection along the
front over the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles should continue to push
east southeast...while the boundary retreats northward across the
Central Plains. As the convection pushes farther away from the
boundary and a theta-e axis/area of warm advection in Western
Oklahoma this precip should begin to weaken as it moves into
Northeast Oklahoma around/shortly after 12z. The activity over
North Central Oklahoma and far Northeast Oklahoma should also
begin to weaken through the morning hours as the surface boundary
lifts northward. Thus...will carry the higher pops mainly north of
United States Highway 412 over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas with less chances just south of the highway.

This afternoon...cloud cover looks to become more scattered over
the CWA which should aid in another hot and humid afternoon. At
this time...heat index values in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees
will be possible. Daytime heating combined with any leftover
outflow boundaries from the morning convection could allow for
additional diurnal thunderstorm development to be
possible...mainly over parts of Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest
Arkansas. This additional activity should weaken by late evening
with the loss of heating.

Tonight into the weekend...high pressure is forecast to build back
over the Southern Plains which will continue hot and humid
conditions over the CWA. Heat advisories could be needed both
Saturday and Sunday over parts of the region as heat index values
could reach in the 100 to near 110 degree range.

Late weekend into the first part of next week...latest model
solutions continue to indicate the ridge of high pressure shifting
westward as a low pressure system currently approaching the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to move into the Northern Plains
Sunday and the Great Lakes Region Monday. This westward movement
of high pressure will allow for a frontal boundary to approach and
possibly move into the CWA Monday and Tuesday. In
response...thunderstorm chances will again become possible along
with temperatures more closer to the seasonal average. By the
second half of next week...upper level northwesterly flow over the
Plains could push a wave into the region with thunderstorm chances
and some cooler temperatures continuing for the CWA through the
end of this forecast package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  98  80 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   97  76  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   93  75  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   94  73  97  76 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   91  71  92  73 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   90  73  92  73 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   94  75  95  76 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   92  73  95  75 /  40  10   0  10
F10   93  75  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   93  74  95  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241108
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection along near the OK / KS border may gradually
expand eastward while also reinforcing a weak boundary across NE
OK. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm
chances this afternoon. Outside of any convection VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...a surface boundary was positions from the
Oklahoma Texas Panhandles to Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri
into the Ohio River Valley. Along this boundary...areas of
convection were ongoing from the Texas Panhandle to Southwest
Kansas...and south of the boundary across North Central Oklahoma
and also far Northeast Oklahoma. Across the rest of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...mostly clear to overcast high
clouds were common early this morning.

Through the late morning hours today...the convection along the
front over the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles should continue to push
east southeast...while the boundary retreats northward across the
Central Plains. As the convection pushes farther away from the
boundary and a theta-e axis/area of warm advection in Western
Oklahoma this precip should begin to weaken as it moves into
Northeast Oklahoma around/shortly after 12z. The activity over
North Central Oklahoma and far Northeast Oklahoma should also
begin to weaken through the morning hours as the surface boundary
lifts northward. Thus...will carry the higher pops mainly north of
United States Highway 412 over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas with less chances just south of the highway.

This afternoon...cloud cover looks to become more scattered over
the CWA which should aid in another hot and humid afternoon. At
this time...heat index values in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees
will be possible. Daytime heating combined with any leftover
outflow boundaries from the morning convection could allow for
additional diurnal thunderstorm development to be
possible...mainly over parts of Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest
Arkansas. This additional activity should weaken by late evening
with the loss of heating.

Tonight into the weekend...high pressure is forecast to build back
over the Southern Plains which will continue hot and humid
conditions over the CWA. Heat advisories could be needed both
Saturday and Sunday over parts of the region as heat index values
could reach in the 100 to near 110 degree range.

Late weekend into the first part of next week...latest model
solutions continue to indicate the ridge of high pressure shifting
westward as a low pressure system currently approaching the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to move into the Northern Plains
Sunday and the Great Lakes Region Monday. This westward movement
of high pressure will allow for a frontal boundary to approach and
possibly move into the CWA Monday and Tuesday. In
response...thunderstorm chances will again become possible along
with temperatures more closer to the seasonal average. By the
second half of next week...upper level northwesterly flow over the
Plains could push a wave into the region with thunderstorm chances
and some cooler temperatures continuing for the CWA through the
end of this forecast package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  98  80 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   97  76  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   93  75  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   94  73  97  76 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   91  71  92  73 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   90  73  92  73 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   94  75  95  76 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   92  73  95  75 /  40  10   0  10
F10   93  75  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   93  74  95  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241105
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period, although a few storms
will remain present near PNC until ~14Z. Scattered cumulus are
again expected this afternoon along with some isolated showers and
storms. However, confidence is way too low to include any mention
of TSRA in the TAFs at this time. Winds will increase from the
south early this afternoon and then decrease around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
northern OK late tonight. The first moved out of the high plains
and into SW KS/NW OK and is being supported by the LLJ. The second
is located from around Enid northeastward to Ponca City and is
likely the result of fairly stout isentropic ascent along a
remnant outflow boundary. This ascent is expected to continue
through most of the night, which will likley result in
significant localized flash flooding especially over Kay county
where DP is estimating totals exceeding 4 inches already.

The previously mentioned activity should wane during the late
morning. Then, later this afternoon, isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms may briefly return. The question is where exactly.
For now it appears the most likely area will be across central OK
where outflow boundaries will be present.

It appears dry for most Saturday with the exception of northern
OK again as a cold front approaches from the north. By Sunday
afternoon, chances will increase a bit across most of the rest of
the region as an upper low lifts out of west TX and the front
stalls near the KS/OK border. Given the weak flow aloft, the main
threat with this activity will be localized flooding.

By early next week, a mid to upper trough will dig into the NW
CONUS and the ridge will shift over the Rockies leaving our
region in northerly flow aloft. Several mid to upper shortwave
troughs are expected within this flow through next week, possibly
continuing into next weekend, and will likely result in at least
one complex of storms impacting the region before Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  94  75 /  20   0   0  10
Hobart OK         96  74  97  75 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  95  75  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  73  98  71 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     94  76  96  76 /  40   0   0  10
Durant OK         93  74  93  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241105
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period, although a few storms
will remain present near PNC until ~14Z. Scattered cumulus are
again expected this afternoon along with some isolated showers and
storms. However, confidence is way too low to include any mention
of TSRA in the TAFs at this time. Winds will increase from the
south early this afternoon and then decrease around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
northern OK late tonight. The first moved out of the high plains
and into SW KS/NW OK and is being supported by the LLJ. The second
is located from around Enid northeastward to Ponca City and is
likely the result of fairly stout isentropic ascent along a
remnant outflow boundary. This ascent is expected to continue
through most of the night, which will likley result in
significant localized flash flooding especially over Kay county
where DP is estimating totals exceeding 4 inches already.

The previously mentioned activity should wane during the late
morning. Then, later this afternoon, isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms may briefly return. The question is where exactly.
For now it appears the most likely area will be across central OK
where outflow boundaries will be present.

It appears dry for most Saturday with the exception of northern
OK again as a cold front approaches from the north. By Sunday
afternoon, chances will increase a bit across most of the rest of
the region as an upper low lifts out of west TX and the front
stalls near the KS/OK border. Given the weak flow aloft, the main
threat with this activity will be localized flooding.

By early next week, a mid to upper trough will dig into the NW
CONUS and the ridge will shift over the Rockies leaving our
region in northerly flow aloft. Several mid to upper shortwave
troughs are expected within this flow through next week, possibly
continuing into next weekend, and will likely result in at least
one complex of storms impacting the region before Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  94  75 /  20   0   0  10
Hobart OK         96  74  97  75 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  95  75  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  73  98  71 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     94  76  96  76 /  40   0   0  10
Durant OK         93  74  93  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240904
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
404 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...a surface boundary was positions from the
Oklahoma Texas Panhandles to Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri
into the Ohio River Valley. Along this boundary...areas of
convection were ongoing from the Texas Panhandle to Southwest
Kansas...and south of the boundary across North Central Oklahoma
and also far Northeast Oklahoma. Across the rest of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...mostly clear to overcast high
clouds were common early this morning.

Through the late morning hours today...the convection along the
front over the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles should continue to push
east southeast...while the boundary retreats northward across the
Central Plains. As the convection pushes farther away from the
boundary and a theta-e axis/area of warm advection in Western
Oklahoma this precip should begin to weaken as it moves into
Northeast Oklahoma around/shortly after 12z. The activity over
North Central Oklahoma and far Northeast Oklahoma should also
begin to weaken through the morning hours as the surface boundary
lifts northward. Thus...will carry the higher pops mainly north of
United States Highway 412 over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas with less chances just south of the highway.

This afternoon...cloud cover looks to become more scattered over
the CWA which should aid in another hot and humid afternoon. At
this time...heat index values in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees
will be possible. Daytime heating combined with any leftover
outflow boundaries from the morning convection could allow for
additional diurnal thunderstorm development to be
possible...mainly over parts of Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest
Arkansas. This additional activity should weaken by late evening
with the loss of heating.

Tonight into the weekend...high pressure is forecast to build back
over the Southern Plains which will continue hot and humid
conditions over the CWA. Heat advisories could be needed both
Saturday and Sunday over parts of the region as heat index values
could reach in the 100 to near 110 degree range.

Late weekend into the first part of next week...latest model
solutions continue to indicate the ridge of high pressure shifting
westward as a low pressure system currently approaching the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to move into the Northern Plains
Sunday and the Great Lakes Region Monday. This westward movement
of high pressure will allow for a frontal boundary to approach and
possibly move into the CWA Monday and Tuesday. In
response...thunderstorm chances will again become possible along
with temperatures more closer to the seasonal average. By the
second half of next week...upper level northwesterly flow over the
Plains could push a wave into the region with thunderstorm chances
and some cooler temperatures continuing for the CWA through the
end of this forecast package.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  98  80 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   97  76  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   93  75  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   94  73  97  76 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   91  71  92  73 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   90  73  92  73 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   94  75  95  76 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   92  73  95  75 /  40  10   0  10
F10   93  75  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   93  74  95  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240740
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
240 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Two areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
northern OK late tonight. The first moved out of the high plains
and into SW KS/NW OK and is being supported by the LLJ. The second
is located from around Enid northeastward to Ponca City and is
likely the result of fairly stout isentropic ascent along a
remnant outflow boundary. This ascent is expected to continue
through most of the night, which will likley result in
significant localized flash flooding especially over Kay county
where DP is estimating totals exceeding 4 inches already.

The previously mentioned activity should wane during the late
morning. Then, later this afternoon, isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms may briefly return. The question is where exactly.
For now it appears the most likely area will be across central OK
where outflow boundaries will be present.

It appears dry for most Saturday with the exception of northern
OK again as a cold front approaches from the north. By Sunday
afternoon, chances will increase a bit across most of the rest of
the region as an upper low lifts out of west TX and the front
stalls near the KS/OK border. Given the weak flow aloft, the main
threat with this activity will be localized flooding.

By early next week, a mid to upper trough will dig into the NW
CONUS and the ridge will shift over the Rockies leaving our
region in northerly flow aloft. Several mid to upper shortwave
troughs are expected within this flow through next week, possibly
continuing into next weekend, and will likely result in at least
one complex of storms impacting the region before Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  94  75 /  20   0   0  10
Hobart OK         96  74  97  75 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  95  75  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  73  98  71 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     94  76  96  76 /  40   0   0  10
Durant OK         93  74  93  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240446
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few lingering showers persist across portions of northwest
Arkansas.  This activity is expected to continue to slowly
weaken overnight.  Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 938 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Well defined outflow boundary stretched from near
Stillwater...to Tulsa and into northwest Arkansas.
Bulk of convection remains north into Missouri...but
should continue to see activity bubble near the
the outflow for at least the next several hours.

Tweaked PoPs a bit farther south for the remainder
of the night...with best chances across northwest
Arkansas.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240240
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
940 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A lone thunderstorm remains this evening, a few miles south
of Enid. This storm has weakened over the past 15 minutes and
may dissipate completely.

However, an outflow boundary is draped across northern Oklahoma
roughly from Tulsa to Enid and Woodward. The boundary is rather
shallow per KVNX, but may help with additional shower and
thunderstorm develop later tonight/overnight as a low level jet
increases. Other storms remain over the higher terrain and these
storms may reach northwest Oklahoma during the overnight hours.
Unsure on the overall coverage of precipitation, so plan to keep
pops around 30 percent.

The stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds to 50 mph,
heavy rainfall (PWATS are rather high) and perhaps small hail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The 24/00Z TAF discussion is below.

AVIATION...
Generally expect VFR conditions to continue through the TAF
period. Otherwise, expect the remnant outflow boundary across
northern Oklahoma to lift northward this evening/overnight, which
should veer the winds back to the southeast across KGAG/KWWR/KPNC.

There is an outside possibility for storms to approach KGAG and
KWWR from the west overnight; however, confidence is too low to
include in TAFS. Elsewhere, southerly winds are expect to become
gusty once again tomorrow afternoon.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) continues to progress
eastward across southern Kansas. Showers and storms will remain
possible across north central Oklahoma near the MCV and any
associated outflow boundaries through the afternoon/early evening.

MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg will allow for some severe hail threat, but
relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear should limit
the magnitude of any hailstones. Downdraft CAPE over 1500 J/kg will
result in wet downburst potential as any intense reflectivity
cores collapse.

Showers and storms also are developing across eastern Colorado
and New Mexico. Several convective-allowing models suggest these
storms could approach northwest Oklahoma later tonight into
tomorrow morning.

On Saturday, a cold front is expected to become quasi-stationary
across western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles. Remnant
showers and storms that develop along this boundary may approach
northwest Oklahoma late Sunday.

Any effective boundary from these storms may serve as a potential
focal point for storms on Sunday. The greatest threat will be
across northern Oklahoma.

Monday and beyond, the mid-level ridge is expected to shift to the
west. This should allow weak short waves, backdoor colds fronts,
and/or MCS to affect the Southern Plains. The greatest QPF signal on
both the GFS and ECMWF is across the northeast; however, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty as storm chances likely will be driven
by the previous day`s convection and any remnant features (such as
outflow boundaries and MCVs). The bottom line is temperatures
should be at least slightly cooler with a daily chance of showers
and storms through next week.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  95  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75  96  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  73  98 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     75  96  75  97 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         74  93  74  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240238 AAB
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
938 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Well defined outflow boundary stretched from near
Stillwater...to Tulsa and into northwest Arkansas.
Bulk of convection remains north into Missouri...but
should continue to see activity bubble near the
the outflow for at least the next several hours.

Tweaked PoPs a bit farther south for the remainder
of the night...with best chances across northwest
Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  97  79  97 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   79  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   77  95  76  95 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   77  96  74  97 /  30  30  10   0
FYV   73  93  71  93 /  30  30  10  10
BYV   76  92  75  92 /  30  40  10  10
MKO   76  96  75  96 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   77  95  76  95 /  30  30  10   0
F10   77  95  76  95 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   76  94  75  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240238 AAB
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
938 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Well defined outflow boundary stretched from near
Stillwater...to Tulsa and into northwest Arkansas.
Bulk of convection remains north into Missouri...but
should continue to see activity bubble near the
the outflow for at least the next several hours.

Tweaked PoPs a bit farther south for the remainder
of the night...with best chances across northwest
Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  97  79  97 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   79  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   77  95  76  95 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   77  96  74  97 /  30  30  10   0
FYV   73  93  71  93 /  30  30  10  10
BYV   76  92  75  92 /  30  40  10  10
MKO   76  96  75  96 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   77  95  76  95 /  30  30  10   0
F10   77  95  76  95 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   76  94  75  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 232331
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunderstorm complex, currently moving through SE KS into SW MO,
is expected to remain north of TAF sites this evening.  Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a frontal boundary
extending from east central Kansas into north central Oklahoma.
The frontal boundary may sag a little farther south this evening
before it stalls and retreats back to the north Friday. The
showers and storms will likely weaken this evening as they move
into parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, so
the severe threat will remain marginal in our area.

Scattered showers and storms will remain possible Friday, with the
main focus shifting to far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas by Friday afternoon. The upper ridge rebuilds over the
area this weekend, with hot and humid weather continuing. Heat
headlines may be required again for parts of the area over the
weekend.

Another frontal boundary will approach from the north late Sunday,
and may sag into our area by Monday and Tuesday before retreating
north Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible near this boundary through early next week.

A more significant frontal boundary may push across the area next
Thursday as the upper ridge weakens and retrogrades to the west. A
cooler and wetter weather pattern then looks to set up for late
next week into the following weekend.

Went warmer than most guidance temperatures the next couple days,
with the warmer ECMWF again preferred.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 232331
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunderstorm complex, currently moving through SE KS into SW MO,
is expected to remain north of TAF sites this evening.  Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a frontal boundary
extending from east central Kansas into north central Oklahoma.
The frontal boundary may sag a little farther south this evening
before it stalls and retreats back to the north Friday. The
showers and storms will likely weaken this evening as they move
into parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, so
the severe threat will remain marginal in our area.

Scattered showers and storms will remain possible Friday, with the
main focus shifting to far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas by Friday afternoon. The upper ridge rebuilds over the
area this weekend, with hot and humid weather continuing. Heat
headlines may be required again for parts of the area over the
weekend.

Another frontal boundary will approach from the north late Sunday,
and may sag into our area by Monday and Tuesday before retreating
north Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible near this boundary through early next week.

A more significant frontal boundary may push across the area next
Thursday as the upper ridge weakens and retrogrades to the west. A
cooler and wetter weather pattern then looks to set up for late
next week into the following weekend.

Went warmer than most guidance temperatures the next couple days,
with the warmer ECMWF again preferred.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 232319
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 24/00Z TAF discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally expect VFR conditions to continue through the TAF
period. Otherwise, expect the remnant outflow boundary across
northern Oklahoma to lift northward this evening/overnight, which
should veer the winds back to the southeast across KGAG/KWWR/KPNC.

There is an outside possibility for storms to approach KGAG and
KWWR from the west overnight; however, confidence is too low to
include in TAFS. Elsewhere, southerly winds are expect to become
gusty once again tomorrow afternoon.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) continues to progress
eastward across southern Kansas. Showers and storms will remain
possible across north central Oklahoma near the MCV and any
associated outflow boundaries through the afternoon/early evening.

MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg will allow for some severe hail threat, but
relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear should limit
the magnitude of any hailstones. Downdraft CAPE over 1500 J/kg will
result in wet downburst potential as any intense reflectivity
cores collapse.

Showers and storms also are developing across eastern Colorado
and New Mexico. Several convective-allowing models suggest these
storms could approach northwest Oklahoma later tonight into
tomorrow morning.

On Saturday, a cold front is expected to become quasi-stationary
across western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles. Remnant
showers and storms that develop along this boundary may approach
northwest Oklahoma late Sunday.

Any effective boundary from these storms may serve as a potential
focal point for storms on Sunday. The greatest threat will be
across northern Oklahoma.

Monday and beyond, the mid-level ridge is expected to shift to the
west. This should allow weak short waves, backdoor colds fronts,
and/or MCS to affect the Southern Plains. The greatest QPF signal on
both the GFS and ECMWF is across the northeast; however, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty as storm chances likely will be driven
by the previous day`s convection and any remnant features (such as
outflow boundaries and MCVs). The bottom line is temperatures
should be at least slightly cooler with a daily chance of showers
and storms through next week.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  95  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75  96  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  73  98 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     75  96  75  97 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         74  93  74  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/06/10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 232105
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
405 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) continues to progress
eastward across southern Kansas. Showers and storms will remain
possible across north central Oklahoma near the MCV and any
associated outflow boundaries through the afternoon/early evening.

MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg will allow for some severe hail threat, but
relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear should limit
the magnitude of any hailstones. Downdraft CAPE over 1500 J/kg will
result in wet downburst potential as any intense reflectivity
cores collapse.

Showers and storms also are developing across eastern Colorado
and New Mexico. Several convective-allowing models suggest these
storms could approach northwest Oklahoma later tonight into
tomorrow morning.

On Saturday, a cold front is expected to become quasi-stationary
across western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles. Remnant
showers and storms that develop along this boundary may approach
northwest Oklahoma late Sunday.

Any effective boundary from these storms may serve as a potential
focal point for storms on Sunday. The greatest threat will be
across northern Oklahoma.

Monday and beyond, the mid-level ridge is expected to shift to the
west. This should allow weak short waves, backdoor colds fronts,
and/or MCS to affect the Southern Plains. The greatest QPF signal on
both the GFS and ECMWF is across the northeast; however, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty as storm chances likely will be driven
by the previous day`s convection and any remnant features (such as
outflow boundaries and MCVs). The bottom line is temperatures
should be at least slightly cooler with a daily chance of showers
and storms through next week.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  95  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75  96  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  73  98 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     75  96  75  97 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         74  93  74  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 232056
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
356 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a frontal boundary
extending from east central Kansas into north central Oklahoma.
The frontal boundary may sag a little farther south this evening
before it stalls and retreats back to the north Friday. The
showers and storms will likely weaken this evening as they move
into parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, so
the severe threat will remain marginal in our area.

Scattered showers and storms will remain possible Friday, with the
main focus shifting to far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas by Friday afternoon. The upper ridge rebuilds over the
area this weekend, with hot and humid weather continuing. Heat
headlines may be required again for parts of the area over the
weekend.

Another frontal boundary will approach from the north late Sunday,
and may sag into our area by Monday and Tuesday before retreating
north Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible near this boundary through early next week.

A more significant frontal boundary may push across the area next
Thursday as the upper ridge weakens and retrogrades to the west. A
cooler and wetter weather pattern then looks to set up for late
next week into the following weekend.

Went warmer than most guidance temperatures the next couple days,
with the warmer ECMWF again preferred.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  97  79  97 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   79  97  78  97 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   77  95  76  95 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   77  96  74  97 /  30  30  10   0
FYV   73  93  71  93 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   76  92  75  92 /  30  40  10  10
MKO   76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   77  95  76  95 /  30  30  10   0
F10   77  95  76  95 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   76  94  75  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231758
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1258 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 23/18Z TAF discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Isolated showers and storms may impact KGAG/KWWR/KPNC this
afternoon, but the probability of storms is too low to include in
TAFS. A windshift and/or outflow boundary will be in the vicinity
of KGAG and KWWR through this afternoon, which will result in
variable wind direction. Elsewhere, expect south-southwest winds
to weaken and back to the south-southeast overnight. There is an
outside possibility for storms to approach KGAG and KWWR from the
northwest overnight; however, confidence is low.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1030 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Precipitation continues to struggle to move into our forecast area
from the Panhandles. The mid/upper-level disturbance over
southwest Kansas is, however, producing strong storms near Dodge
City. This type of convection may spread back south into northern
Oklahoma by mid-afternoon, and persist into the early evening, as
suggested by the HRRR/HRRRX.

This is handled well by the current forecast, so no changes are
planned for this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection over the Texas panhandle has been on a decreasing
trend recently, so despite earlier HRRR runs forecasting it to
move into northwest Oklahoma, that is looking less likely. Still
there is a chance of redevelopment this afternoon in northern
Oklahoma near the surface boundary. Low storm chances will be
confined to the north tonight and Friday as well. We have a
fighting chance for storms over a broader area this weekend and
into next week. Otherwise, very warm conditions will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  75  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK        101  75  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  74  98  73 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     99  76  96  74 /  30  20  20   0
Durant OK         95  74  93  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/10/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231658
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Limited chances for TSRA across ne OK this afternoon as a slow
moving boundary approaches from the north. Will carry VCTS at KBVO
between 23z-01z. Otherwise...VFR conditions to prevail through the
entire period at all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1029 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface dewpoints running some 3-4 degrees higher across
northeast Oklahoma than at this time yesterday...and will result
in higher afternoon heat index values where a heat advisory is in
place this afternoon and evening. Current forecast looks good per
latest trends and area 12z soundings. Low pops for later this
afternoon look good across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as a surface boundary slowly pushes its way south
southwest today. Remaining first period elements look
reasonable...and no adjustments to heat advisory are required as
well Therefore...no update is planned at this time.


TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

$$

SHORT TERM...23

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231658
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Limited chances for TSRA across ne OK this afternoon as a slow
moving boundary approaches from the north. Will carry VCTS at KBVO
between 23z-01z. Otherwise...VFR conditions to prevail through the
entire period at all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1029 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface dewpoints running some 3-4 degrees higher across
northeast Oklahoma than at this time yesterday...and will result
in higher afternoon heat index values where a heat advisory is in
place this afternoon and evening. Current forecast looks good per
latest trends and area 12z soundings. Low pops for later this
afternoon look good across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as a surface boundary slowly pushes its way south
southwest today. Remaining first period elements look
reasonable...and no adjustments to heat advisory are required as
well Therefore...no update is planned at this time.


TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

$$

SHORT TERM...23

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231530
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1030 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Precipitation continues to struggle to move into our forecast area
from the Panhandles. The mid/upper-level disturbance over
southwest Kansas is, however, producing strong storms near Dodge
City. This type of convection may spread back south into northern
Oklahoma by mid-afternoon, and persist into the early evening, as
suggested by the HRRR/HRRRX.

This is handled well by the current forecast, so no changes are
planned for this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection over the Texas panhandle has been on a decreasing
trend recently, so despite earlier HRRR runs forecasting it to
move into northwest Oklahoma, that is looking less likely. Still
there is a chance of redevelopment this afternoon in northern
Oklahoma near the surface boundary. Low storm chances will be
confined to the north tonight and Friday as well. We have a
fighting chance for storms over a broader area this weekend and
into next week. Otherwise, very warm conditions will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  75  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK        101  75  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  74  98  73 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     99  76  96  74 /  30  20  20   0
Durant OK         95  74  93  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1029 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface dewpoints running some 3-4 degrees higher across
northeast Oklahoma than at this time yesterday...and will result
in higher afternoon heat index values where a heat advisory is in
place this afternoon and evening. Current forecast looks good per
latest trends and area 12z soundings. Low pops for later this
afternoon look good across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as a surface boundary slowly pushes its way south
southwest today. Remaining first period elements look
reasonable...and no adjustments to heat advisory are required as
well Therefore...no update is planned at this time.


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1029 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface dewpoints running some 3-4 degrees higher across
northeast Oklahoma than at this time yesterday...and will result
in higher afternoon heat index values where a heat advisory is in
place this afternoon and evening. Current forecast looks good per
latest trends and area 12z soundings. Low pops for later this
afternoon look good across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as a surface boundary slowly pushes its way south
southwest today. Remaining first period elements look
reasonable...and no adjustments to heat advisory are required as
well Therefore...no update is planned at this time.


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Few to broken mid level clouds this morning will remain common
through this afternoon and evening as a surface boundary stalls
just north of the CWA and a MCV pushes eastward across Southern
Kansas. In response...thunderstorm chances look to become
possible this afternoon into the overnight hours across far
Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. For now will carry
prob30 group for BVO as this site has a slightly greater chance
than the rest of the TAF sites. For the rest of the TAF
sites...few to scattered mid/high clouds should continue
overnight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The main concern in the near term will be the heat and storm
chances this afternoon. The mid level ridge that has brought hot
and dry weather for the last few days will get suppressed to the
south as a strong wave slides over the Ohio Valley. A frontal
boundary in association with the wave, currently over
northern/western KS will drop down to near or just north of the KS
border by this afternoon. Moisture pooling south of the boundary
combined with high temps near yesterday`s readings will yield heat
indices that will reach advisory criteria across much of NE OK and
at least near advisory across NW AR. Based on coordination with
neighboring offices, the heat advisory will be expanded to cover
all of NW AR. The latest HRRR experimental has been consistent in
developing widely scattered storms near the KS/MO borders with the
front and some support from a remnant MCV from the storms out
west. Coverage looks better across southern KS, but will plan on
increasing pops to 30-40% across the north.

Slight chance to chance pops will continue across the north and
east through Friday in association with the stalled front. The mid
level ridge will rebuild over the weekend...thus pops will not be
carried into Saturday. Another frontal boundary approaches our
northern border Sunday afternoon, and will need to reintroduce
pops at that time, carrying them Sunday night into Monday as the
boundary sinks down into the region.

The latest data continues to indicate that the mid level ridge
will weaken and slide west of our region next week. The latest run
of the ECMWF for the middle to latter part of next week looks
rather wet with nighttime MCS activity in a NW flow pattern aloft.
Relief from the summer heat is coming.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   97  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   94  74  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  95  71 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   93  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   93  73  91  72 /  30  30  30  10
MKO   95  73  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
F10   95  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  73  94  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230955
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
455 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection over the Texas panhandle has been on a decreasing
trend recently, so despite earlier HRRR runs forecasting it to
move into northwest Oklahoma, that is looking less likely. Still
there is a chance of redevelopment this afternoon in northern
Oklahoma near the surface boundary. Low storm chances will be
confined to the north tonight and Friday as well. We have a
fighting chance for storms over a broader area this weekend and
into next week. Otherwise, very warm conditions will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  75  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK        101  75  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  74  98  73 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     99  76  96  74 /  30  20  20   0
Durant OK         95  74  93  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230739
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
239 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The main concern in the near term will be the heat and storm
chances this afternoon. The mid level ridge that has brought hot
and dry weather for the last few days will get suppressed to the
south as a strong wave slides over the Ohio Valley. A frontal
boundary in association with the wave, currently over
northern/western KS will drop down to near or just north of the KS
border by this afternoon. Moisture pooling south of the boundary
combined with high temps near yesterday`s readings will yield heat
indices that will reach advisory criteria across much of NE OK and
at least near advisory across NW AR. Based on coordination with
neighboring offices, the heat advisory will be expanded to cover
all of NW AR. The latest HRRR experimental has been consistent in
developing widely scattered storms near the KS/MO borders with the
front and some support from a remnant MCV from the storms out
west. Coverage looks better across southern KS, but will plan on
increasing pops to 30-40% across the north.

Slight chance to chance pops will continue across the north and
east through Friday in association with the stalled front. The mid
level ridge will rebuild over the weekend...thus pops will not be
carried into Saturday. Another frontal boundary approaches our
northern border Sunday afternoon, and will need to reintroduce
pops at that time, carrying them Sunday night into Monday as the
boundary sinks down into the region.

The latest data continues to indicate that the mid level ridge
will weaken and slide west of our region next week. The latest run
of the ECMWF for the middle to latter part of next week looks
rather wet with nighttime MCS activity in a NW flow pattern aloft.
Relief from the summer heat is coming.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   97  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   94  74  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  95  71 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   93  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   93  73  91  72 /  30  30  30  10
MKO   95  73  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
F10   95  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  73  94  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230739
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
239 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The main concern in the near term will be the heat and storm
chances this afternoon. The mid level ridge that has brought hot
and dry weather for the last few days will get suppressed to the
south as a strong wave slides over the Ohio Valley. A frontal
boundary in association with the wave, currently over
northern/western KS will drop down to near or just north of the KS
border by this afternoon. Moisture pooling south of the boundary
combined with high temps near yesterday`s readings will yield heat
indices that will reach advisory criteria across much of NE OK and
at least near advisory across NW AR. Based on coordination with
neighboring offices, the heat advisory will be expanded to cover
all of NW AR. The latest HRRR experimental has been consistent in
developing widely scattered storms near the KS/MO borders with the
front and some support from a remnant MCV from the storms out
west. Coverage looks better across southern KS, but will plan on
increasing pops to 30-40% across the north.

Slight chance to chance pops will continue across the north and
east through Friday in association with the stalled front. The mid
level ridge will rebuild over the weekend...thus pops will not be
carried into Saturday. Another frontal boundary approaches our
northern border Sunday afternoon, and will need to reintroduce
pops at that time, carrying them Sunday night into Monday as the
boundary sinks down into the region.

The latest data continues to indicate that the mid level ridge
will weaken and slide west of our region next week. The latest run
of the ECMWF for the middle to latter part of next week looks
rather wet with nighttime MCS activity in a NW flow pattern aloft.
Relief from the summer heat is coming.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   97  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   94  74  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  95  71 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   93  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   93  73  91  72 /  30  30  30  10
MKO   95  73  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   94  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
F10   95  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  73  94  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230442
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.AVIATION...
2306/2406 TAFS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward from
the New Mexico and Texas border late this evening.  Overall
storm intensity is somewhat steady with recent wind gusts
in the Oklahoma Panhandle around 45 mph. Some of this
precipitation may reach northwestern Oklahoma mainly after 9z.
Overall the mainly result will be an increase in mid to high
clouds.

Additional precipitation may develop Thursday afternoon near a
weak frontal boundary...possible outflow.

Overall VFR conditions are expected through 2406z with a south
to southwest wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  73  98 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     77  98  76  95 /   0  20  20  10
Durant OK         76  94  74  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230439
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than brief MVFR CIGS possible MLC/FSM 11-14z, VFR expected at
all sites through this forecast period. Scattered cumulus possible
all sites after 16z. Frontal boundary to remain to the north of all
sites, and although there is a low chance of TSRA BVO/XNA/ROG/FYV
after 21z, the chances are too to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 744 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast for Tonight is on track with near persistent
conditions.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ054>072-074-
     076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...69




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230247 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
947 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening update follows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased cloud cover across northern and western portions of
Oklahoma with anvil spreading east from northeast NM convection.
We will also leave low pops across northwest Oklahoma toward and
after sunrise as there are a few high-res models indicating that
some residual rain activity could make it into far northwest
Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  73  98 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     77  98  76  95 /   0  20  20  10
Durant OK         76  94  74  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230247 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
947 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening update follows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased cloud cover across northern and western portions of
Oklahoma with anvil spreading east from northeast NM convection.
We will also leave low pops across northwest Oklahoma toward and
after sunrise as there are a few high-res models indicating that
some residual rain activity could make it into far northwest
Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  73  98 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     77  98  76  95 /   0  20  20  10
Durant OK         76  94  74  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230044
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
744 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast for Tonight is on track with near persistent conditions.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ054>072-074-
     076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10




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