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000
FXUS64 KTSA 021203
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  52  69  42 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   89  57  74  44 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   88  54  75  43 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   83  48  67  37 /  80  20   0   0
FYV   85  48  67  35 /  90  80   0   0
BYV   85  52  66  39 /  80  90   0   0
MKO   87  52  69  39 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   84  50  65  38 /  90  70   0   0
F10   86  52  71  41 / 100  20   0   0
HHW   90  56  77  44 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021203
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  52  69  42 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   89  57  74  44 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   88  54  75  43 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   83  48  67  37 /  80  20   0   0
FYV   85  48  67  35 /  90  80   0   0
BYV   85  52  66  39 /  80  90   0   0
MKO   87  52  69  39 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   84  50  65  38 /  90  70   0   0
F10   86  52  71  41 / 100  20   0   0
HHW   90  56  77  44 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 021126 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL HAS MOVED THROUGH KGAG AND KWWR AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT... MOST
LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR KOKC... KOUN AND KPNC. STRATUS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND AND HAVE INCLUDED CIGS OF 030 IN MOST OF THE
TAFS... ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA... ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED POPS YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  52  71  45 /  30  10   0   0
HOBART OK         80  52  73  46 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  55  79  49 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  43  69  41 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  50  67  40 /  60  10   0   0
DURANT OK         90  57  78  47 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01



000
FXUS64 KOUN 021126 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL HAS MOVED THROUGH KGAG AND KWWR AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT... MOST
LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR KOKC... KOUN AND KPNC. STRATUS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND AND HAVE INCLUDED CIGS OF 030 IN MOST OF THE
TAFS... ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA... ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED POPS YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  52  71  45 /  30  10   0   0
HOBART OK         80  52  73  46 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  55  79  49 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  43  69  41 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  50  67  40 /  60  10   0   0
DURANT OK         90  57  78  47 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020943
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
443 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA... ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED POPS YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  52  71  45 /  30  10   0   0
HOBART OK         80  52  73  46 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  55  79  49 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  43  69  41 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  50  67  40 /  60  10   0   0
DURANT OK         90  57  78  47 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020943
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
443 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA... ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED POPS YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  52  71  45 /  30  10   0   0
HOBART OK         80  52  73  46 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  55  79  49 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  43  69  41 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  50  67  40 /  60  10   0   0
DURANT OK         90  57  78  47 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  52  69  42 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   89  57  74  44 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   88  54  75  43 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   83  48  67  37 /  80  20   0   0
FYV   85  48  67  35 /  90  80   0   0
BYV   85  52  66  39 /  80  90   0   0
MKO   87  52  69  39 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   84  50  65  38 /  90  70   0   0
F10   86  52  71  41 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   90  56  77  44 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 020911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  52  69  42 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   89  57  74  44 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   88  54  75  43 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   83  48  67  37 /  80  20   0   0
FYV   85  48  67  35 /  90  80   0   0
BYV   85  52  66  39 /  80  90   0   0
MKO   87  52  69  39 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   84  50  65  38 /  90  70   0   0
F10   86  52  71  41 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   90  56  77  44 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 020911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  52  69  42 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   89  57  74  44 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   88  54  75  43 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   83  48  67  37 /  80  20   0   0
FYV   85  48  67  35 /  90  80   0   0
BYV   85  52  66  39 /  80  90   0   0
MKO   87  52  69  39 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   84  50  65  38 /  90  70   0   0
F10   86  52  71  41 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   90  56  77  44 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 020911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  52  69  42 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   89  57  74  44 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   88  54  75  43 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   83  48  67  37 /  80  20   0   0
FYV   85  48  67  35 /  90  80   0   0
BYV   85  52  66  39 /  80  90   0   0
MKO   87  52  69  39 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   84  50  65  38 /  90  70   0   0
F10   86  52  71  41 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   90  56  77  44 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KOUN 020516
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THE TAF PACKAGE IS QUITE COMPLEX THIS PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL
FACTORS IMPACTING AVIATION. INITIALLY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WITH UPPER SUPPORT
INCREASING...A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
I-44 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD IMPACT TERMINALS FROM
KPNC TO KOKC/KOUN...SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF KLAW IN THE 12Z TO
19Z TIMEFRAME. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 21Z
TO 22Z. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES. BY 22Z TO 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST EAST OF RETREATING DRYLINE.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AT LEAST HALF-DOLLAR IN
SIZE AN BRIEFLY LARGER AND MARGINAL WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  72  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  79  50  80 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           45  71  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  69  40  73 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  78  48  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020516
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THE TAF PACKAGE IS QUITE COMPLEX THIS PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL
FACTORS IMPACTING AVIATION. INITIALLY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WITH UPPER SUPPORT
INCREASING...A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
I-44 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD IMPACT TERMINALS FROM
KPNC TO KOKC/KOUN...SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF KLAW IN THE 12Z TO
19Z TIMEFRAME. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 21Z
TO 22Z. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES. BY 22Z TO 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST EAST OF RETREATING DRYLINE.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AT LEAST HALF-DOLLAR IN
SIZE AN BRIEFLY LARGER AND MARGINAL WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  72  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  79  50  80 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           45  71  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  69  40  73 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  78  48  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BVO AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SE OK/NW AR BY MID EVENING
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BVO AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SE OK/NW AR BY MID EVENING
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BVO AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SE OK/NW AR BY MID EVENING
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BVO AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SE OK/NW AR BY MID EVENING
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 020240 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST EAST OF RETREATING DRYLINE.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AT LEAST HALF-DOLLAR IN
SIZE AN BRIEFLY LARGER AND MARGINAL WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  83  53  72 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         67  81  52  74 /  40  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  88  56  79 /  50  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  73  45  71 /  20  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  78  51  69 /  60  50  10   0
DURANT OK         71  89  57  78 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020240 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST EAST OF RETREATING DRYLINE.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AT LEAST HALF-DOLLAR IN
SIZE AN BRIEFLY LARGER AND MARGINAL WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  83  53  72 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         67  81  52  74 /  40  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  88  56  79 /  50  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  73  45  71 /  20  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  78  51  69 /  60  50  10   0
DURANT OK         71  89  57  78 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020152
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020152
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020152
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020152
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 012353
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 012353
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 012353
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 012353
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 012332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  83  53 /  20  30  40  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  88  56 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           89  57  73  45 /  10  20  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  68  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  71  89  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  83  53 /  20  30  40  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  88  56 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           89  57  73  45 /  10  20  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  68  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  71  89  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  83  53 /  20  30  40  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  88  56 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           89  57  73  45 /  10  20  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  68  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  71  89  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES FROM
KSPS/KLAW NORTHEAST TO KOKC AND KPNC. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VSBYS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  83  53 /  20  30  40  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  88  56 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           89  57  73  45 /  10  20  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  68  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  71  89  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EAELY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  85  54  70 /  60  80  30   0
FSM   72  87  59  74 /  20  90  60   0
MLC   72  88  56  75 /  20  90  30   0
BVO   69  84  50  67 /  70  60  30   0
FYV   67  83  53  68 /  30  80  60   0
BYV   68  84  54  68 /  40  70  60   0
MKO   70  85  55  70 /  40  90  30   0
MIO   69  82  53  65 /  70 100  40   0
F10   70  86  54  73 /  30  80  20   0
HHW   72  90  58  77 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 012105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EAELY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  85  54  70 /  60  80  30   0
FSM   72  87  59  74 /  20  90  60   0
MLC   72  88  56  75 /  20  90  30   0
BVO   69  84  50  67 /  70  60  30   0
FYV   67  83  53  68 /  30  80  60   0
BYV   68  84  54  68 /  40  70  60   0
MKO   70  85  55  70 /  40  90  30   0
MIO   69  82  53  65 /  70 100  40   0
F10   70  86  54  73 /  30  80  20   0
HHW   72  90  58  77 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05





000
FXUS64 KOUN 012001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  83  53  72 /  30  40  10   0
HOBART OK         67  81  52  74 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  88  56  79 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  73  45  71 /  20  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  78  51  69 /  60  50  10   0
DURANT OK         71  89  57  78 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  83  53  72 /  30  40  10   0
HOBART OK         67  81  52  74 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  88  56  79 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  73  45  71 /  20  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  78  51  69 /  60  50  10   0
DURANT OK         71  89  57  78 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011807 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN LIES IN THE NEAR TERM...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN TIMING CONFIDENCE...
STAYED WITH PROB30S FOR SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
PRECIP.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS/WEATHER A BIT TO REFLECT A SOMEWHAT
EARLIER TIME FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON
INDICATIONS FROM VARIOUS SHORT-TERM MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WANE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING AS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HIRESW-NMM MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER SUNRISE... BUT
OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. AND EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS... MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE SIGNAL IS MUCH STRONGER FOR
STORMS AFTER 06Z AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STORMS MOVE OUT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES TO BE
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  82  53 /  20  40  30  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  87  56 /  20  30  20  10
GAGE OK           89  57  74  45 /  10  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  72  88  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/04/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH TSRA POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA COULD AFFECT MAINLY BVO/TUL/RVS THIS
AFTN...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR TO
MAYBE IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT A GIVEN...AT THE AR TERMINALS
TONIGHT BEFORE ANY STORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS WITH A SCT LOW CLOUD GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH TSRA POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA COULD AFFECT MAINLY BVO/TUL/RVS THIS
AFTN...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR TO
MAYBE IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT A GIVEN...AT THE AR TERMINALS
TONIGHT BEFORE ANY STORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS WITH A SCT LOW CLOUD GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH TSRA POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA COULD AFFECT MAINLY BVO/TUL/RVS THIS
AFTN...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR TO
MAYBE IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT A GIVEN...AT THE AR TERMINALS
TONIGHT BEFORE ANY STORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS WITH A SCT LOW CLOUD GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH TSRA POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA COULD AFFECT MAINLY BVO/TUL/RVS THIS
AFTN...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR TO
MAYBE IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT A GIVEN...AT THE AR TERMINALS
TONIGHT BEFORE ANY STORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS WITH A SCT LOW CLOUD GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 011453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS/WEATHER A BIT TO REFLECT A SOMEWHAT
EARLIER TIME FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON
INDICATIONS FROM VARIOUS SHORT-TERM MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT KSPS... BUT AT THE MOMENT
DO NOT THINK PROBABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH OF THIS STRATUS MOVING
INTO ANY OF THE TAF SITES TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH BE STORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH KGAG AND KWWR JUST BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WANE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING AS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HIRESW-NMM MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER SUNRISE... BUT
OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. AND EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS... MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE SIGNAL IS MUCH STRONGER FOR
STORMS AFTER 06Z AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STORMS MOVE OUT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES TO BE
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  82  53 /  20  40  30  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  87  56 /  20  30  20  10
GAGE OK           89  57  74  45 /  10  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  72  88  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS/WEATHER A BIT TO REFLECT A SOMEWHAT
EARLIER TIME FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON
INDICATIONS FROM VARIOUS SHORT-TERM MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT KSPS... BUT AT THE MOMENT
DO NOT THINK PROBABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH OF THIS STRATUS MOVING
INTO ANY OF THE TAF SITES TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH BE STORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH KGAG AND KWWR JUST BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WANE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING AS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HIRESW-NMM MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER SUNRISE... BUT
OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. AND EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS... MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE SIGNAL IS MUCH STRONGER FOR
STORMS AFTER 06Z AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STORMS MOVE OUT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES TO BE
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  82  53 /  20  40  30  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  87  56 /  20  30  20  10
GAGE OK           89  57  74  45 /  10  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  72  88  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/04



000
FXUS64 KTSA 011447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 011138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT KSPS... BUT AT THE MOMENT
DO NOT THINK PROBABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH OF THIS STRATUS MOVING
INTO ANY OF THE TAF SITES TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH BE STORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH KGAG AND KWWR JUST BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WANE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING AS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HIRESW-NMM MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER SUNRISE... BUT
OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. AND EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS... MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE SIGNAL IS MUCH STRONGER FOR
STORMS AFTER 06Z AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STORMS MOVE OUT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES TO BE
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  82  53 /  20  40  30  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  10  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  87  56 /  10  30  20  10
GAGE OK           89  57  74  45 /   0  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  72  88  57 /   0  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT KSPS... BUT AT THE MOMENT
DO NOT THINK PROBABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH OF THIS STRATUS MOVING
INTO ANY OF THE TAF SITES TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH BE STORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH KGAG AND KWWR JUST BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WANE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING AS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HIRESW-NMM MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER SUNRISE... BUT
OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. AND EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS... MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE SIGNAL IS MUCH STRONGER FOR
STORMS AFTER 06Z AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STORMS MOVE OUT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES TO BE
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  82  53 /  20  40  30  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  10  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  87  56 /  10  30  20  10
GAGE OK           89  57  74  45 /   0  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  72  88  57 /   0  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011135
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  82  53 /  20  60  70  10
FSM   88  71  85  58 /  10  20  80  50
MLC   88  73  86  56 /  10  30  70  10
BVO   88  69  81  52 /  30  60  70  10
FYV   84  69  81  53 /  10  30  80  40
BYV   84  68  81  54 /  20  30  80  60
MKO   88  71  84  54 /  20  50  80  20
MIO   87  69  81  52 /  40  60  80  20
F10   88  71  84  55 /  20  40  70  10
HHW   86  72  88  58 /  10  20  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 011135
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  82  53 /  20  60  70  10
FSM   88  71  85  58 /  10  20  80  50
MLC   88  73  86  56 /  10  30  70  10
BVO   88  69  81  52 /  30  60  70  10
FYV   84  69  81  53 /  10  30  80  40
BYV   84  68  81  54 /  20  30  80  60
MKO   88  71  84  54 /  20  50  80  20
MIO   87  69  81  52 /  40  60  80  20
F10   88  71  84  55 /  20  40  70  10
HHW   86  72  88  58 /  10  20  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 010927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WANE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING AS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HIRESW-NMM MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER SUNRISE... BUT
OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. AND EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS... MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE SIGNAL IS MUCH STRONGER FOR
STORMS AFTER 06Z AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STORMS MOVE OUT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES TO BE
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  82  53 /  20  40  30  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  10  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  87  56 /  10  30  20  10
GAGE OK           89  57  74  45 /   0  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  72  88  57 /   0  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010909
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  82  53 /  20  60  70  10
FSM   88  71  85  58 /  10  20  80  50
MLC   88  73  86  56 /  10  30  70  10
BVO   88  69  81  52 /  30  60  70  10
FYV   84  69  81  53 /  10  30  80  40
BYV   84  68  81  54 /  20  30  80  60
MKO   88  71  84  54 /  20  50  80  20
MIO   87  69  81  52 /  40  60  80  20
F10   88  71  84  55 /  20  40  70  10
HHW   86  72  88  58 /  10  20  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 010909
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  82  53 /  20  60  70  10
FSM   88  71  85  58 /  10  20  80  50
MLC   88  73  86  56 /  10  30  70  10
BVO   88  69  81  52 /  30  60  70  10
FYV   84  69  81  53 /  10  30  80  40
BYV   84  68  81  54 /  20  30  80  60
MKO   88  71  84  54 /  20  50  80  20
MIO   87  69  81  52 /  40  60  80  20
F10   88  71  84  55 /  20  40  70  10
HHW   86  72  88  58 /  10  20  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 010457
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK AND WESTERN N TX LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.
EXPECT TSRA NEAR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SSE WINDS NEAR 15 KT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH 10Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           61  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010457
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK AND WESTERN N TX LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.
EXPECT TSRA NEAR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SSE WINDS NEAR 15 KT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH 10Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           61  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010255 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
TRAINING STORMS NORTH OF ROSSTON AND BUFFALO HAVE PRODUCED AT
LEAST THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN AND AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL
AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW END POPS
ACROSS WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASE MINS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS DRYLINE HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT A BIT
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           61  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010255 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
TRAINING STORMS NORTH OF ROSSTON AND BUFFALO HAVE PRODUCED AT
LEAST THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN AND AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL
AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW END POPS
ACROSS WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASE MINS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS DRYLINE HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT A BIT
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           61  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010255 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
TRAINING STORMS NORTH OF ROSSTON AND BUFFALO HAVE PRODUCED AT
LEAST THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN AND AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL
AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW END POPS
ACROSS WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASE MINS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS DRYLINE HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT A BIT
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           61  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010255 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
TRAINING STORMS NORTH OF ROSSTON AND BUFFALO HAVE PRODUCED AT
LEAST THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN AND AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL
AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW END POPS
ACROSS WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASE MINS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS DRYLINE HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT A BIT
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           61  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010157
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
CONTINUE TO LOOK POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
44 AS MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...BUT WITH SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...CHANCE IS NOT ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FOREAST
PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF MORNING MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD WILL RISE INTO VFR RANGE. ANY
OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION ACROSS FAR NE
OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS ENTERED THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING ENERGY WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING LOW POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TONIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
TO BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING TOGETHER AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY ALIGNS WELL WITH PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS
FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONALLY...EXITING UPPER SPEED MAX
PLACES FAR ERN OK AND NW IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY PLACE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A
HIGHER SEVERE STORM RISK. FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES
AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010157
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
CONTINUE TO LOOK POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
44 AS MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...BUT WITH SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...CHANCE IS NOT ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FOREAST
PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF MORNING MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD WILL RISE INTO VFR RANGE. ANY
OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION ACROSS FAR NE
OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS ENTERED THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING ENERGY WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING LOW POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TONIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
TO BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING TOGETHER AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY ALIGNS WELL WITH PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS
FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONALLY...EXITING UPPER SPEED MAX
PLACES FAR ERN OK AND NW IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY PLACE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A
HIGHER SEVERE STORM RISK. FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES
AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 302345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED OR REMOVED POPS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME FORCING STILL PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES HELPING TO INDUCE MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL
LEAVE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NE OF GAG/WWR EARLY THIS EVENING. FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OR
DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT FROM SSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  10  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED OR REMOVED POPS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME FORCING STILL PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES HELPING TO INDUCE MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL
LEAVE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NE OF GAG/WWR EARLY THIS EVENING. FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OR
DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT FROM SSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  10  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED OR REMOVED POPS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME FORCING STILL PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES HELPING TO INDUCE MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL
LEAVE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NE OF GAG/WWR EARLY THIS EVENING. FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OR
DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT FROM SSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  10  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED OR REMOVED POPS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME FORCING STILL PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES HELPING TO INDUCE MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL
LEAVE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NE OF GAG/WWR EARLY THIS EVENING. FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OR
DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT FROM SSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  10  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 302335
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FOREAST
PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF MORNING MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD WILL RISE INTO VFR RANGE. ANY
OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION ACROSS FAR NE
OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS ENTERED THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING ENERGY WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING LOW POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TONIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
TO BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING TOGETHER AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY ALIGNS WELL WITH PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS
FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONALLY...EXITING UPPER SPEED MAX
PLACES FAR ERN OK AND NW IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY PLACE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A
HIGHER SEVERE STORM RISK. FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES
AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  72  82 /  20  20  40  70
FSM   65  89  71  84 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   69  88  73  84 /  10  10  20  60
BVO   67  88  70  80 /  30  30  50  70
FYV   62  85  67  80 /  10  10  30  60
BYV   63  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
MKO   66  89  72  84 /  10  10  30  70
MIO   66  87  69  81 /  20  30  50  70
F10   69  89  72  83 /  10  10  30  60
HHW   67  88  71  86 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 302335
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FOREAST
PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF MORNING MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD WILL RISE INTO VFR RANGE. ANY
OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION ACROSS FAR NE
OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS ENTERED THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING ENERGY WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING LOW POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TONIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
TO BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING TOGETHER AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY ALIGNS WELL WITH PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS
FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONALLY...EXITING UPPER SPEED MAX
PLACES FAR ERN OK AND NW IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY PLACE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A
HIGHER SEVERE STORM RISK. FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES
AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  72  82 /  20  20  40  70
FSM   65  89  71  84 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   69  88  73  84 /  10  10  20  60
BVO   67  88  70  80 /  30  30  50  70
FYV   62  85  67  80 /  10  10  30  60
BYV   63  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
MKO   66  89  72  84 /  10  10  30  70
MIO   66  87  69  81 /  20  30  50  70
F10   69  89  72  83 /  10  10  30  60
HHW   67  88  71  86 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 302316
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NE OF GAG/WWR EARLY THIS EVENING. FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OR
DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT FROM SSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  20  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  20  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  40  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302316
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NE OF GAG/WWR EARLY THIS EVENING. FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OR
DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT FROM SSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  20  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  20  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  40  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 302006
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS ENTERED THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING ENERGY WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING LOW POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TONIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
TO BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING TOGETHER AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY ALIGNS WELL WITH PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS
FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONALLY...EXITING UPPER SPEED MAX
PLACES FAR ERN OK AND NW IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY PLACE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A
HIGHER SEVERE STORM RISK. FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES
AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  72  82 /  20  20  40  70
FSM   65  89  71  84 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   69  88  73  84 /  10  10  20  60
BVO   67  88  70  80 /  30  30  50  70
FYV   62  85  67  80 /  10  10  30  60
BYV   62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
MKO   66  89  72  84 /  10  10  30  70
MIO   66  87  69  81 /  20  30  50  70
F10   69  89  72  83 /  10  10  30  60
HHW   67  88  71  86 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 302006
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS ENTERED THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING ENERGY WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING LOW POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TONIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
TO BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING TOGETHER AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY ALIGNS WELL WITH PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS
FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONALLY...EXITING UPPER SPEED MAX
PLACES FAR ERN OK AND NW IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY PLACE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A
HIGHER SEVERE STORM RISK. FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES
AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  72  82 /  20  20  40  70
FSM   65  89  71  84 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   69  88  73  84 /  10  10  20  60
BVO   67  88  70  80 /  30  30  50  70
FYV   62  85  67  80 /  10  10  30  60
BYV   62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
MKO   66  89  72  84 /  10  10  30  70
MIO   66  87  69  81 /  20  30  50  70
F10   69  89  72  83 /  10  10  30  60
HHW   67  88  71  86 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KOUN 301932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  20  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  20  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  40  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  20  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  20  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  40  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  20  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  20  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  40  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  20  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  20  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  20  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  40  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITION FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAIN MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE ELEVATED TSRA ACROSS N/W
OKLAHOMA BY 04Z, AFFECTING TERMINALS KGAG AND KWWR, EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING TERMINAL KPNC AS EARLY AS 06Z. THE POP CHANCES ARE
STILL SLIGHT, SO A PROB30 IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED 3 TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY
BEEN WANING.. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  90  68 /   0  20  10  40
HOBART OK         89  67  91  66 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  20
GAGE OK           86  60  89  57 /  30  30  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     87  66  88  65 /  10  40  30  50
DURANT OK         89  68  90  71 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITION FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAIN MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE ELEVATED TSRA ACROSS N/W
OKLAHOMA BY 04Z, AFFECTING TERMINALS KGAG AND KWWR, EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING TERMINAL KPNC AS EARLY AS 06Z. THE POP CHANCES ARE
STILL SLIGHT, SO A PROB30 IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED 3 TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY
BEEN WANING.. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  90  68 /   0  20  10  40
HOBART OK         89  67  91  66 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  20
GAGE OK           86  60  89  57 /  30  30  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     87  66  88  65 /  10  40  30  50
DURANT OK         89  68  90  71 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25/67




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301735
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME POSITIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER ANY MVFR STRATUS RETURNING WITH GULF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF AREA TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX/

..UPDATE...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA IS PART
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING INHIBITION AS THEY CONTINUE EAST INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH.

DUNN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS
(KBVO)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING...EXPECT SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK BY MIDDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE KBVO TAF AT THIS TIME.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS
BY TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KTSA 301541 AAB
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA IS PART
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING INHIBITION AS THEY CONTINUE EAST INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS
(KBVO)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING...EXPECT SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK BY MIDDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE KBVO TAF AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS
BY TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   86  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   87  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   87  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   83  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   83  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   86  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   87  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







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