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000
FXUS64 KOUN 221520 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  57  80  56 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  40  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           78  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  78  55 /  10  50  20   0
DURANT OK         78  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23



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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH ALL SITES NOW REPORTING VIS
OF 3 MILES OR MORE. ASIDE FROM THAT WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OK AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK
UPDATE TO REFRESH MORNING WORDING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  75  56 /  10  40  40  10
FSM   79  50  72  52 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   79  53  72  54 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   80  55  76  52 /  10  50  30  10
FYV   73  46  71  48 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   70  47  71  51 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   78  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  10
MIO   77  53  74  52 /   0  30  40  10
F10   78  54  74  55 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   79  52  74  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 221136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 221126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  57  80  56 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  40  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           78  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  78  55 /  10  50  20   0
DURANT OK         78  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  57  80  56 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  40  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           78  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  78  55 /  10  50  20   0
DURANT OK         78  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 220809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  57  75  56 /  10  40  40  10
FSM   78  50  72  52 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   78  53  72  54 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   79  55  76  52 /  10  50  30  10
FYV   72  46  71  48 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   69  47  71  51 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   77  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  10
MIO   76  53  74  52 /   0  30  40  10
F10   77  54  74  55 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   78  52  74  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 220508
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AT KPNC WHERE THE
PROBABILITY IS THE HIGHEST... ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW FAIR CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OK. THESE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH.

STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW AS A LEE
SFC LOW DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH
THE TROUGH LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THUR WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK. SW/W OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY ALSO BE FAVORED NEAR THE
LER OF AN UPPER JET EARLY WED EVENING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN REASONABLE (AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG)
THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND EXPECT A QUICK WARMUP AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS APPROACHING
RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL FINALLY COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND A FAIRLY STOUT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  79  57  85 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         57  80  57  85 /  50   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  81  58  86 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  78  55  86 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  77  56  84 /  50  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  75  57  82 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220508
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AT KPNC WHERE THE
PROBABILITY IS THE HIGHEST... ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW FAIR CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OK. THESE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH.

STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW AS A LEE
SFC LOW DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH
THE TROUGH LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THUR WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK. SW/W OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY ALSO BE FAVORED NEAR THE
LER OF AN UPPER JET EARLY WED EVENING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN REASONABLE (AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG)
THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND EXPECT A QUICK WARMUP AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS APPROACHING
RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL FINALLY COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND A FAIRLY STOUT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  79  57  85 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         57  80  57  85 /  50   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  81  58  86 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  78  55  86 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  77  56  84 /  50  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  75  57  82 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 220439
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 220439
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 220238
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  77  57  74 /  10  10  40  40
FSM   54  77  52  73 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   56  76  54  74 /  10   0  30  20
BVO   54  78  55  75 /  10  10  40  40
FYV   49  72  49  71 /   0   0  20  20
BYV   49  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   56  76  54  73 /   0   0  30  30
MIO   54  76  54  74 /   0   0  30  40
F10   57  76  55  74 /   0  10  30  30
HHW   56  77  52  75 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 212320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 212320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212047
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW FAIR CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OK. THESE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH.

STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW AS A LEE
SFC LOW DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH
THE TROUGH LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THUR WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK. SW/W OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY ALSO BE FAVORED NEAR THE
LER OF AN UPPER JET EARLY WED EVENING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN REASONABLE (AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG)
THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND EXPECT A QUICK WARMUP AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS APPROACHING
RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL FINALLY COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND A FAIRLY STOUT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  80  58  79 /   0  10  40  10
HOBART OK         55  79  57  80 /   0  40  50   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  82  59  81 /   0  20  40  10
GAGE OK           54  76  53  78 /   0  40  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  81  59  77 /   0   0  50  20
DURANT OK         57  79  56  75 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 212043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  77  57  74 /  10  10  40  40
FSM   53  77  52  73 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   55  76  54  74 /  10   0  30  20
BVO   53  78  55  75 /  10  10  40  40
FYV   48  72  49  71 /   0   0  20  20
BYV   48  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   55  76  54  73 /   0   0  30  30
MIO   53  76  54  74 /   0   0  30  40
F10   56  76  55  74 /   0  10  30  30
HHW   55  77  52  75 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 211740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT ONLY FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO
INCLUDE IT AT PNC. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS (VFR) THIS AFTERNOON AND CIRRUS LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  78  57  76 /   0  10  50  20
HOBART OK         56  76  57  79 /   0  30  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  81  58  80 /   0  10  30  20
GAGE OK           54  74  53  78 /   0  30  40   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  79  58  75 /   0  10  50  20
DURANT OK         58  79  55  74 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 211713
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG HAS DISSIPATED GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z. FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT REDUCED BY
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...MIXING DURING THE DAY TODAY
WILL NOT BE STRONG AND THUS EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS NW ARKANSAS AFTER
06Z. BACK TO ALL VFR AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04



000
FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210904
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210904
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 210744
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 210432
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV/XNA LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING
THE BVO AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR PER REASONS DISCUSSED EARLIER. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOG LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210432
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV/XNA LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING
THE BVO AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR PER REASONS DISCUSSED EARLIER. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOG LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 210155
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210155
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/26



000
FXUS64 KTSA 210002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202329 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202329 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR BELOW 12 KT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE EXCEPTION FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR HBR...BUT ANY CIGS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
AROUND 050-070. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         58  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  82  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           53  79  53  76 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     54  78  54  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  57  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR BELOW 12 KT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE EXCEPTION FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR HBR...BUT ANY CIGS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
AROUND 050-070. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         58  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  82  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           53  79  53  76 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     54  78  54  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  57  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED
MIXING...LIKELY RESULTING IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALL AREAS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED
MIXING...LIKELY RESULTING IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALL AREAS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14








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