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000
FXUS64 KTSA 270906
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION ON THIS
TURKEY DAY...AND THUS EXPECT HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK WARM UP
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOUCH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND IN MANY AREAS.

THEN THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DIVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SEND A SURGE OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR OOZING SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS LIKE SPILLED MILK. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO
STOP THE WARM UP ON SUNDAY AND THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON
MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A SHARPER WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND A SHARPER COOL DOWN BEHIND IT. WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS LEAD AND CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT LIGHT QPF. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO BE A DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SHALLOW
FRONT LIFTS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE TEMPS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE /FAR NE OK AND NW AR/ MAY SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT
ICING SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

SOME ENERGY PUNCHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE RESULTING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL HELP TO DRAW THE SHALLOW COLD WEDGE OUT...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICK THIS WILL OCCUR. ONCE
AGAIN...USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATER ON NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF
RETURNING US TO THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WE`RE IN NOW...WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THUS...WILL NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WILL STAY WITH A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  32  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  38  63  53 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  32  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  32  58  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  32  57  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   47  34  64  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  33  61  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   49  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  34  64  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270906
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION ON THIS
TURKEY DAY...AND THUS EXPECT HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK WARM UP
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOUCH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND IN MANY AREAS.

THEN THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DIVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SEND A SURGE OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR OOZING SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS LIKE SPILLED MILK. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO
STOP THE WARM UP ON SUNDAY AND THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON
MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A SHARPER WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND A SHARPER COOL DOWN BEHIND IT. WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS LEAD AND CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT LIGHT QPF. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO BE A DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SHALLOW
FRONT LIFTS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE TEMPS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE /FAR NE OK AND NW AR/ MAY SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT
ICING SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

SOME ENERGY PUNCHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE RESULTING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL HELP TO DRAW THE SHALLOW COLD WEDGE OUT...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICK THIS WILL OCCUR. ONCE
AGAIN...USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATER ON NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF
RETURNING US TO THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WE`RE IN NOW...WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THUS...WILL NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WILL STAY WITH A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  32  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  38  63  53 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  32  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  32  58  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  32  57  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   47  34  64  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  33  61  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   49  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  34  64  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270906
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION ON THIS
TURKEY DAY...AND THUS EXPECT HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK WARM UP
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOUCH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND IN MANY AREAS.

THEN THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DIVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SEND A SURGE OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR OOZING SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS LIKE SPILLED MILK. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO
STOP THE WARM UP ON SUNDAY AND THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON
MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A SHARPER WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND A SHARPER COOL DOWN BEHIND IT. WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS LEAD AND CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT LIGHT QPF. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO BE A DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SHALLOW
FRONT LIFTS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE TEMPS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE /FAR NE OK AND NW AR/ MAY SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT
ICING SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

SOME ENERGY PUNCHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE RESULTING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL HELP TO DRAW THE SHALLOW COLD WEDGE OUT...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICK THIS WILL OCCUR. ONCE
AGAIN...USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATER ON NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF
RETURNING US TO THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WE`RE IN NOW...WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THUS...WILL NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WILL STAY WITH A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  32  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  38  63  53 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  32  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  32  58  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  32  57  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   47  34  64  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  33  61  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   49  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  34  64  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270906
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION ON THIS
TURKEY DAY...AND THUS EXPECT HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK WARM UP
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOUCH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND IN MANY AREAS.

THEN THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DIVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SEND A SURGE OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR OOZING SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS LIKE SPILLED MILK. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO
STOP THE WARM UP ON SUNDAY AND THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON
MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A SHARPER WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND A SHARPER COOL DOWN BEHIND IT. WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS LEAD AND CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT LIGHT QPF. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO BE A DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SHALLOW
FRONT LIFTS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE TEMPS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE /FAR NE OK AND NW AR/ MAY SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT
ICING SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

SOME ENERGY PUNCHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE RESULTING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL HELP TO DRAW THE SHALLOW COLD WEDGE OUT...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICK THIS WILL OCCUR. ONCE
AGAIN...USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATER ON NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF
RETURNING US TO THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WE`RE IN NOW...WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THUS...WILL NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WILL STAY WITH A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  32  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  38  63  53 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  32  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  32  58  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  32  57  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   47  34  64  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  33  61  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   49  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  34  64  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 270551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270539
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SC CLOUDS 2-3K FEET SW MO DESCENDING INTO NW AR TAF SITES
KROG KXNA KFYV FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF NW AR TAF SITES BY 12Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTERED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. INTERMITTENT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND FAR NWRN AR AT
TIMES TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUD TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES MUCH. OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST IS TRACKING VERY
WELL AND SEE NO REASON FOR EVENING UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  TRANSIENT MID CLOUD.
NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY,

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  52  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  46  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  45  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  43  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  47  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  44  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  54  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270539
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SC CLOUDS 2-3K FEET SW MO DESCENDING INTO NW AR TAF SITES
KROG KXNA KFYV FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF NW AR TAF SITES BY 12Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTERED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. INTERMITTENT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND FAR NWRN AR AT
TIMES TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUD TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES MUCH. OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST IS TRACKING VERY
WELL AND SEE NO REASON FOR EVENING UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  TRANSIENT MID CLOUD.
NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY,

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  52  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  46  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  45  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  43  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  47  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  44  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  54  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 270308
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTERED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. INTERMITTENT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND FAR NWRN AR AT
TIMES TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUD TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES MUCH. OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST IS TRACKING VERY
WELL AND SEE NO REASON FOR EVENING UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  TRANSIENT MID CLOUD.
NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY,

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...21
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270308
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTERED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. INTERMITTENT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND FAR NWRN AR AT
TIMES TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUD TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES MUCH. OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST IS TRACKING VERY
WELL AND SEE NO REASON FOR EVENING UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  TRANSIENT MID CLOUD.
NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY,

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...21
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270004
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270004
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270004
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270004
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262344
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  TRANSIENT MID CLOUD.
NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY,


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262344
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  TRANSIENT MID CLOUD.
NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY,


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COL ADVECTION
STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS MAINLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS FOR
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 KNOTS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 261722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COL ADVECTION
STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS MAINLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS FOR
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 KNOTS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 261722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COL ADVECTION
STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS MAINLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS FOR
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 KNOTS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 261722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COL ADVECTION
STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS MAINLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS FOR
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 KNOTS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 261709 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON... CALMING AND BECOMING MORE
N/NERLY OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD... REMAINING CALM... WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/04/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261709 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON... CALMING AND BECOMING MORE
N/NERLY OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD... REMAINING CALM... WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/04/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   50  24  47  34 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   50  25  45  34 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22








000
FXUS64 KTSA 261656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   50  24  47  34 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   50  25  45  34 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22








000
FXUS64 KTSA 261656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   50  24  47  34 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   50  25  45  34 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22








000
FXUS64 KTSA 261656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   50  24  47  34 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   50  25  45  34 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22








000
FXUS64 KOUN 261124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 261112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
...AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z-01Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE PLAINS SIT BENEATH SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN
EMBEDDED PV MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. CONCOMITANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT THE COOLING
WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT...THUS THE WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
COOLING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FELT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS
HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SHARP WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IF NOT
WARMER IN SOME SPOTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SEND A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING AS IT HEADS
SOUTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER IN
SOME PLACES BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY PUNCHING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...PRODUCING FALLING PRESSURES ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW IT OUT.

THE MODELS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WITH NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION DISCERNABLE AT THIS POINT...I WILL
ELECT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
...AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z-01Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE PLAINS SIT BENEATH SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN
EMBEDDED PV MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. CONCOMITANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT THE COOLING
WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT...THUS THE WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
COOLING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FELT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS
HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SHARP WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IF NOT
WARMER IN SOME SPOTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SEND A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING AS IT HEADS
SOUTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER IN
SOME PLACES BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY PUNCHING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...PRODUCING FALLING PRESSURES ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW IT OUT.

THE MODELS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WITH NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION DISCERNABLE AT THIS POINT...I WILL
ELECT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KOUN 260934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260837
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE PLAINS SIT BENEATH SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN
EMBEDDED PV MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. CONCOMITANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT THE COOLING
WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT...THUS THE WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
COOLING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FELT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS
HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SHARP WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IF NOT
WARMER IN SOME SPOTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SEND A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING AS IT HEADS
SOUTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER IN
SOME PLACES BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY PUNCHING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...PRODUCING FALLING PRESSURES ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW IT OUT.

THE MODELS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WITH NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION DISCERNABLE AT THIS POINT...I WILL
ELECT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   52  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   49  24  47  34 /  20   0  10   0
BYV   48  25  45  34 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER/SRINKLES IS/ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PNC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER/SRINKLES IS/ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PNC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 260302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260009
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-16Z TURNING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.  TRANSIENT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WITH FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260009
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-16Z TURNING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.  TRANSIENT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WITH FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KOUN 252349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 252023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251726
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME
PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 251110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





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