Home > Products > State Listing > Oklahoma Data
Latest:
 AFDOUN |  AFDTSA |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 262317 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...27/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THROUGH 00Z... TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KLAW/KSPS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. TIMING FOR KOKC/KOUN WOULD HAVE TSRA
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. WILL MODIFY TAFS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD KOKC. STORMS IN SWRN OK
HAVE PUT DOWN A DECENT OUTFLOW... WITH GUSTY SE WINDS TOWARDS
KHBR/KCSM. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED... 1 TO 2 HRS. FOR
KLAW/KSPS... TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EACH
AIRFIELD OVER THE NEXT THROUGH 02 TO 03Z.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE COMING WEEK WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL...AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...AS STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER THE FAR WEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED
WITH WEAK CAPPING AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IMPACTED EACH DAY BY THE
PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY MOST BE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT...BY MAY
STANDARDS...LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...STALLING DOWN ALONG
THE RED RIVER. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCREASE. WITH THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR
WORSENING RIVER FLOOD AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW LONG IT
WILL REMAIN BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  68  79 /  40  40  40  50
HOBART OK         61  82  67  78 /  30  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  68  82 /  40  30  50  40
GAGE OK           57  82  64  79 /  30  40  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  66  79 /  50  40  40  50
DURANT OK         66  83  68  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262317 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...27/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THROUGH 00Z... TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KLAW/KSPS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. TIMING FOR KOKC/KOUN WOULD HAVE TSRA
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. WILL MODIFY TAFS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD KOKC. STORMS IN SWRN OK
HAVE PUT DOWN A DECENT OUTFLOW... WITH GUSTY SE WINDS TOWARDS
KHBR/KCSM. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED... 1 TO 2 HRS. FOR
KLAW/KSPS... TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EACH
AIRFIELD OVER THE NEXT THROUGH 02 TO 03Z.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE COMING WEEK WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL...AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...AS STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER THE FAR WEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED
WITH WEAK CAPPING AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IMPACTED EACH DAY BY THE
PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY MOST BE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT...BY MAY
STANDARDS...LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...STALLING DOWN ALONG
THE RED RIVER. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCREASE. WITH THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR
WORSENING RIVER FLOOD AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW LONG IT
WILL REMAIN BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  68  79 /  40  40  40  50
HOBART OK         61  82  67  78 /  30  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  68  82 /  40  30  50  40
GAGE OK           57  82  64  79 /  30  40  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  66  79 /  50  40  40  50
DURANT OK         66  83  68  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 262048
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE COMING WEEK WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL...AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...AS STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER THE FAR WEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED
WITH WEAK CAPPING AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IMPACTED EACH DAY BY THE
PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY MOST BE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT...BY MAY
STANDARDS...LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...STALLING DOWN ALONG
THE RED RIVER. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCREASE. WITH THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR
WORSENING RIVER FLOOD AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW LONG IT
WILL REMAIN BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  68  79 /  40  40  40  50
HOBART OK         61  82  67  78 /  30  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  68  82 /  40  30  50  40
GAGE OK           57  82  64  79 /  30  40  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  66  79 /  50  40  40  50
DURANT OK         66  83  68  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84/26



000
FXUS64 KOUN 262048
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE COMING WEEK WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL...AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...AS STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER THE FAR WEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED
WITH WEAK CAPPING AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IMPACTED EACH DAY BY THE
PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY MOST BE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT...BY MAY
STANDARDS...LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...STALLING DOWN ALONG
THE RED RIVER. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCREASE. WITH THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR
WORSENING RIVER FLOOD AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW LONG IT
WILL REMAIN BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  68  79 /  40  40  40  50
HOBART OK         61  82  67  78 /  30  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  68  82 /  40  30  50  40
GAGE OK           57  82  64  79 /  30  40  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  66  79 /  50  40  40  50
DURANT OK         66  83  68  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84/26




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  60  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  40  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  40  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  60  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  60  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  60  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  60  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  60  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  60  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  40  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  40  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  60  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  60  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  60  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  60  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  60  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  60  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  40  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  40  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  60  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  60  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  60  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  60  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  60  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  60  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  40  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  40  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  60  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  60  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  60  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  60  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  60  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KOUN 261728
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MORNING STRATUS HAS ERODED AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE SCATTERED
NATURE... DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAF SITES. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB30S FOR THE EVENING STORMS WHERE APPROPRIATE
WHEN I CAN. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF DENSE FG FROM NEAR KSPS TO KOKC WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 1230Z AND 1500Z. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHRA WILL TREK E ACROSS
W OK AND W N TX THIS MORNING. THESE HIGH-BASED SHRA SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN TO AVIATION...UNLESS THEY DEVELOP INTO TSRA.
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD NOON. STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSRA WHEREVER THEY ARE ABLE TO
FORM...MOST LIKELY IN S OK AND N TX. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 261728
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MORNING STRATUS HAS ERODED AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE SCATTERED
NATURE... DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAF SITES. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB30S FOR THE EVENING STORMS WHERE APPROPRIATE
WHEN I CAN. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF DENSE FG FROM NEAR KSPS TO KOKC WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 1230Z AND 1500Z. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHRA WILL TREK E ACROSS
W OK AND W N TX THIS MORNING. THESE HIGH-BASED SHRA SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN TO AVIATION...UNLESS THEY DEVELOP INTO TSRA.
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD NOON. STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSRA WHEREVER THEY ARE ABLE TO
FORM...MOST LIKELY IN S OK AND N TX. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261715
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AR ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST...INTO EASTERN OK AROUND 01-03Z
AND WESTERN AR AFTER 04Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME NEAR-TERM SKY/POP
ADJUSTMENTS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TODAY. STILL A SHOT AT SOME STRAY
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  83  66  81 /  40  40  30  50
FSM   66  84  67  84 /  40  40  20  50
MLC   66  83  67  83 /  40  40  30  50
BVO   63  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
FYV   61  80  64  82 /  40  40  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  40  40  20  50
MKO   64  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
MIO   61  81  64  81 /  40  40  20  50
F10   65  83  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
HHW   67  83  68  83 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261715
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AR ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST...INTO EASTERN OK AROUND 01-03Z
AND WESTERN AR AFTER 04Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME NEAR-TERM SKY/POP
ADJUSTMENTS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TODAY. STILL A SHOT AT SOME STRAY
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  83  66  81 /  40  40  30  50
FSM   66  84  67  84 /  40  40  20  50
MLC   66  83  67  83 /  40  40  30  50
BVO   63  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
FYV   61  80  64  82 /  40  40  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  40  40  20  50
MKO   64  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
MIO   61  81  64  81 /  40  40  20  50
F10   65  83  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
HHW   67  83  68  83 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261715
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AR ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST...INTO EASTERN OK AROUND 01-03Z
AND WESTERN AR AFTER 04Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME NEAR-TERM SKY/POP
ADJUSTMENTS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TODAY. STILL A SHOT AT SOME STRAY
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  83  66  81 /  40  40  30  50
FSM   66  84  67  84 /  40  40  20  50
MLC   66  83  67  83 /  40  40  30  50
BVO   63  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
FYV   61  80  64  82 /  40  40  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  40  40  20  50
MKO   64  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
MIO   61  81  64  81 /  40  40  20  50
F10   65  83  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
HHW   67  83  68  83 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261715
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AR ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST...INTO EASTERN OK AROUND 01-03Z
AND WESTERN AR AFTER 04Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME NEAR-TERM SKY/POP
ADJUSTMENTS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TODAY. STILL A SHOT AT SOME STRAY
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  83  66  81 /  40  40  30  50
FSM   66  84  67  84 /  40  40  20  50
MLC   66  83  67  83 /  40  40  30  50
BVO   63  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
FYV   61  80  64  82 /  40  40  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  40  40  20  50
MKO   64  82  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
MIO   61  81  64  81 /  40  40  20  50
F10   65  83  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
HHW   67  83  68  83 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261601
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME NEAR-TERM SKY/POP
ADJUSTMENTS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TODAY. STILL A SHOT AT SOME STRAY
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  20
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  20
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  20  40  40  20
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  20
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261601
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME NEAR-TERM SKY/POP
ADJUSTMENTS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TODAY. STILL A SHOT AT SOME STRAY
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  20
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  20
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  20  40  40  20
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  20
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261150
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TEMPORARY IFR STRATUS CIG SITES KTUL KRVS UNTIL 15Z.
MVFR CLOUD ARKANSAS TAF SITES KXNA KFYV KROG MIXING OUT
15Z-18Z. VFR ALL SITES 18Z-00Z. THUNDERSTORM RISK INCREASES
THIS EVENING MAINLY IN 03Z-09Z TIME PERIOD. PROB30 USED DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE AT SPECIFIC TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ENDING. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS NUMEROUS
SECONDARY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING
ONGOING MODERATE TO MAJOR MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS IN STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL...HOWEVER OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FURTHER AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. AGAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND FRONT WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  20
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  20
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  20  40  40  20
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  20
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 261124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF DENSE FG FROM NEAR KSPS TO KOKC WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 1230Z AND 1500Z. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHRA WILL TREK E ACROSS
W OK AND W N TX THIS MORNING. THESE HIGH-BASED SHRA SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN TO AVIATION...UNLESS THEY DEVELOP INTO TSRA.
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD NOON. STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSRA WHEREVER THEY ARE ABLE TO
FORM...MOST LIKELY IN S OK AND N TX. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ019-020-
     023>030-038>041-044>046-050.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF DENSE FG FROM NEAR KSPS TO KOKC WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 1230Z AND 1500Z. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHRA WILL TREK E ACROSS
W OK AND W N TX THIS MORNING. THESE HIGH-BASED SHRA SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN TO AVIATION...UNLESS THEY DEVELOP INTO TSRA.
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD NOON. STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSRA WHEREVER THEY ARE ABLE TO
FORM...MOST LIKELY IN S OK AND N TX. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ019-020-
     023>030-038>041-044>046-050.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

17/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 260926
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ023-024-
     027>029-038>041-044>046-050.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260926
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ023-024-
     027>029-038>041-044>046-050.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

17/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 260801
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ENDING. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS NUMEROUS
SECONDARY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING
ONGOING MODERATE TO MAJOR MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS IN STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL...HOWEVER OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FURTHER AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. AGAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND FRONT WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  30
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  30
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  30  40  40  30
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  30
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260801
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ENDING. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS NUMEROUS
SECONDARY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING
ONGOING MODERATE TO MAJOR MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS IN STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL...HOWEVER OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FURTHER AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. AGAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND FRONT WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  30
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  30
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  30  40  40  30
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  30
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260801
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ENDING. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS NUMEROUS
SECONDARY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING
ONGOING MODERATE TO MAJOR MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS IN STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL...HOWEVER OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FURTHER AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. AGAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND FRONT WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  30
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  30
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  30  40  40  30
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  30
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260801
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ENDING. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS NUMEROUS
SECONDARY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING
ONGOING MODERATE TO MAJOR MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS IN STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL...HOWEVER OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FURTHER AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. AGAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND FRONT WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  30
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  30
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  30  40  40  30
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  30
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 260454 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. BKN TO OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL TO ERN OK... WITH A WINDOW OF CLEARING ACROSS WRN OK AND
WRN N TX... WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TX PH. AT 05Z...
KDUC DIPPED TO 5SM BR. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND SFC DPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES... MVFR FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SRN TO CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA
DEVELOPING LATE TUE AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPOS ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT PROB30S
WILL BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OK... AS CONFIDENCE IN NRN EXTENT OF
THUNDER IS LOW.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE PRIMARY REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS MAY RELAX ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES... PERSISTING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FELT CONFIDENT TO PUT TEMPOS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TMRW AFTN/EVENING AT SITES ACROSS CENTRAL...
WESTERN... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  63  83 /  10  30  50  40
HOBART OK         56  80  60  85 /  10  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  85  65  87 /  10  30  30  40
GAGE OK           52  79  56  83 /  20  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     58  80  62  83 /  20  20  40  30
DURANT OK         61  82  67  84 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 260454 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. BKN TO OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL TO ERN OK... WITH A WINDOW OF CLEARING ACROSS WRN OK AND
WRN N TX... WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TX PH. AT 05Z...
KDUC DIPPED TO 5SM BR. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND SFC DPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES... MVFR FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SRN TO CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA
DEVELOPING LATE TUE AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPOS ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT PROB30S
WILL BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OK... AS CONFIDENCE IN NRN EXTENT OF
THUNDER IS LOW.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE PRIMARY REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS MAY RELAX ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES... PERSISTING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FELT CONFIDENT TO PUT TEMPOS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TMRW AFTN/EVENING AT SITES ACROSS CENTRAL...
WESTERN... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  63  83 /  10  30  50  40
HOBART OK         56  80  60  85 /  10  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  85  65  87 /  10  30  30  40
GAGE OK           52  79  56  83 /  20  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     58  80  62  83 /  20  20  40  30
DURANT OK         61  82  67  84 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO LOW END MVFR
RANGE ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE
GREATEST DOWN AT KMLC...WHERE POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAT CLOUD
COVER CLEARS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNON AND EVENING
ACROSS E OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SO A LIMITED RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  81  65  82 /  20  10  50  40
FSM   64  81  66  85 / 100  20  40  40
MLC   62  80  67  83 /  20  20  60  40
BVO   59  80  62  83 /  30  10  40  40
FYV   61  78  62  80 / 100  20  30  30
BYV   61  79  63  80 / 100  30  30  30
MKO   61  80  65  82 /  20  20  50  50
MIO   61  79  62  82 /  80  20  50  30
F10   60  80  65  82 /  20  20  60  50
HHW   61  82  68  83 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO LOW END MVFR
RANGE ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE
GREATEST DOWN AT KMLC...WHERE POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAT CLOUD
COVER CLEARS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNON AND EVENING
ACROSS E OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SO A LIMITED RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  81  65  82 /  20  10  50  40
FSM   64  81  66  85 / 100  20  40  40
MLC   62  80  67  83 /  20  20  60  40
BVO   59  80  62  83 /  30  10  40  40
FYV   61  78  62  80 / 100  20  30  30
BYV   61  79  63  80 / 100  30  30  30
MKO   61  80  65  82 /  20  20  50  50
MIO   61  79  62  82 /  80  20  50  30
F10   60  80  65  82 /  20  20  60  50
HHW   61  82  68  83 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO LOW END MVFR
RANGE ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE
GREATEST DOWN AT KMLC...WHERE POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAT CLOUD
COVER CLEARS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNON AND EVENING
ACROSS E OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SO A LIMITED RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  81  65  82 /  20  10  50  40
FSM   64  81  66  85 / 100  20  40  40
MLC   62  80  67  83 /  20  20  60  40
BVO   59  80  62  83 /  30  10  40  40
FYV   61  78  62  80 / 100  20  30  30
BYV   61  79  63  80 / 100  30  30  30
MKO   61  80  65  82 /  20  20  50  50
MIO   61  79  62  82 /  80  20  50  30
F10   60  80  65  82 /  20  20  60  50
HHW   61  82  68  83 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO LOW END MVFR
RANGE ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE
GREATEST DOWN AT KMLC...WHERE POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAT CLOUD
COVER CLEARS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNON AND EVENING
ACROSS E OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SO A LIMITED RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  81  65  82 /  20  10  50  40
FSM   64  81  66  85 / 100  20  40  40
MLC   62  80  67  83 /  20  20  60  40
BVO   59  80  62  83 /  30  10  40  40
FYV   61  78  62  80 / 100  20  30  30
BYV   61  79  63  80 / 100  30  30  30
MKO   61  80  65  82 /  20  20  50  50
MIO   61  79  62  82 /  80  20  50  30
F10   60  80  65  82 /  20  20  60  50
HHW   61  82  68  83 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260257
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SO A LIMITED RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 252341 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE PRIMARY REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS MAY RELAX ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES... PERSISTING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FELT CONFIDENT TO PUT TEMPOS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TMRW AFTN/EVENING AT SITES ACROSS CENTRAL...
WESTERN... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 252341 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE PRIMARY REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS MAY RELAX ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES... PERSISTING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FELT CONFIDENT TO PUT TEMPOS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TMRW AFTN/EVENING AT SITES ACROSS CENTRAL...
WESTERN... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND IS INTERACTING WITH
A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AS STRONG WIND
FIELDS SPREAD DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE WAVE THE STORM COMPLEX WILL
REMAIN ORGANIZED AND MAINTAIN THE RAPID E-NE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. RAPID ONSET FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY...A
TRANSIENT TORNADIC RISK WILL PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
MESOVORTICIES ALONG LINEAR SEGMENTS AND ALSO WITH SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AUGMENTED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
STRONG MCV CENTER.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLY CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER SYSTEM
AND A MORE SUSTAINED DRY PERIOD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VARIOUS
DATA HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON AGAIN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND POSSIBLY INTO EASTERN OK. FORCING ALOFT IS RATHER NEBULOUS
DURING THIS PERIOD SO UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS HOWEVER ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING AND THUS A HEAVY
RAIN CONCERN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LESSER COVERAGE
PRECIP PERIOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE PATTERN RETURNS TO TROUGHING
THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  81  65  82 /  70  10  50  40
FSM   64  81  66  85 / 100  20  40  40
MLC   62  80  67  83 /  80  20  60  40
BVO   59  80  62  83 /  50  10  40  40
FYV   61  78  62  80 / 100  20  30  30
BYV   61  79  63  80 / 100  30  30  30
MKO   61  80  65  82 /  90  20  50  50
MIO   61  79  62  82 /  70  20  50  30
F10   60  80  65  82 /  80  20  60  50
HHW   64  82  68  83 /  80  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 251948
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251948
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

26/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 251948
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251948
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251948
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251948
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING... SO ANTICIPATE LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MOVING FORWARD. WE
STILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED...
HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  81  63  83 /  30  30  50  40
HOBART OK         57  80  60  85 /  20  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  85  65  87 /  20  30  30  40
GAGE OK           53  79  56  83 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     59  80  62  83 /  40  20  40  30
DURANT OK         63  82  67  84 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251855
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  61  81  65 /  60  70  10  50
FSM   81  64  81  66 /  50 100  20  40
MLC   78  62  80  67 /  80  80  20  60
BVO   81  59  80  62 /  30  50  10  40
FYV   78  61  78  62 /  30 100  20  30
BYV   80  61  79  63 /  30 100  30  30
MKO   78  61  80  65 /  60  90  20  50
MIO   79  61  79  62 /  30  70  20  50
F10   78  60  80  65 /  70  80  20  60
HHW   78  64  82  68 /  80  80  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251855
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  61  81  65 /  60  70  10  50
FSM   81  64  81  66 /  50 100  20  40
MLC   78  62  80  67 /  80  80  20  60
BVO   81  59  80  62 /  30  50  10  40
FYV   78  61  78  62 /  30 100  20  30
BYV   80  61  79  63 /  30 100  30  30
MKO   78  61  80  65 /  60  90  20  50
MIO   79  61  79  62 /  30  70  20  50
F10   78  60  80  65 /  70  80  20  60
HHW   78  64  82  68 /  80  80  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251855
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  61  81  65 /  60  70  10  50
FSM   81  64  81  66 /  50 100  20  40
MLC   78  62  80  67 /  80  80  20  60
BVO   81  59  80  62 /  30  50  10  40
FYV   78  61  78  62 /  30 100  20  30
BYV   80  61  79  63 /  30 100  30  30
MKO   78  61  80  65 /  60  90  20  50
MIO   79  61  79  62 /  30  70  20  50
F10   78  60  80  65 /  70  80  20  60
HHW   78  64  82  68 /  80  80  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251855
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  61  81  65 /  60  70  10  50
FSM   81  64  81  66 /  50 100  20  40
MLC   78  62  80  67 /  80  80  20  60
BVO   81  59  80  62 /  30  50  10  40
FYV   78  61  78  62 /  30 100  20  30
BYV   80  61  79  63 /  30 100  30  30
MKO   78  61  80  65 /  60  90  20  50
MIO   79  61  79  62 /  30  70  20  50
F10   78  60  80  65 /  70  80  20  60
HHW   78  64  82  68 /  80  80  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  82  65 /  60  40  20  50
FSM   81  64  82  68 /  80  90  30  40
MLC   78  64  82  68 /  90  60  20  40
BVO   81  60  82  62 /  60  30  20  50
FYV   78  62  79  62 /  60  80  30  40
BYV   80  64  80  63 /  50  80  30  40
MKO   78  63  81  66 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   79  63  81  63 /  50  50  20  50
F10   77  61  80  65 /  80  50  20  50
HHW   78  64  82  67 /  90  80  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  82  65 /  60  40  20  50
FSM   81  64  82  68 /  80  90  30  40
MLC   78  64  82  68 /  90  60  20  40
BVO   81  60  82  62 /  60  30  20  50
FYV   78  62  79  62 /  60  80  30  40
BYV   80  64  80  63 /  50  80  30  40
MKO   78  63  81  66 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   79  63  81  63 /  50  50  20  50
F10   77  61  80  65 /  80  50  20  50
HHW   78  64  82  67 /  90  80  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 251207
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 21Z. A FEW SITES MAY GO TO LIFR THROUGH 15Z.

TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KWWR AND KGAG
18-24Z. BRIEF VERY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
FORM...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251207
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 21Z. A FEW SITES MAY GO TO LIFR THROUGH 15Z.

TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KWWR AND KGAG
18-24Z. BRIEF VERY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
FORM...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251207
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 21Z. A FEW SITES MAY GO TO LIFR THROUGH 15Z.

TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KWWR AND KGAG
18-24Z. BRIEF VERY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
FORM...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251207
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 21Z. A FEW SITES MAY GO TO LIFR THROUGH 15Z.

TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KWWR AND KGAG
18-24Z. BRIEF VERY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
FORM...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  82  65 /  40  40  20  50
FSM   81  64  82  68 /  50  90  30  40
MLC   78  64  82  68 /  80  60  20  40
BVO   81  60  82  62 /  30  30  20  50
FYV   78  62  79  62 /  30  80  30  40
BYV   80  64  80  63 /  30  80  30  40
MKO   78  63  81  66 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   79  63  81  63 /  30  50  20  50
F10   77  61  80  65 /  60  50  20  50
HHW   78  64  82  67 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 250923 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TORNADO LOCATION S OF I-44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

23/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250923 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TORNADO LOCATION S OF I-44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES MAY
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR BOW
OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

23/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES MAY
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR BOW
OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  63  81  64 /  70  20  20  50
HOBART OK         77  59  82  61 /  50  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  63  85  65 /  90  20  20  20
GAGE OK           79  56  80  57 /  20  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  80  62 /  30  20  20  50
DURANT OK         79  65  83  67 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250429
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH IFR OR
BELOW CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS
ENDED AND THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXITING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
WAVE...THE COOL...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST
IFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS START TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES REFLECT QPF AND POP ADJUSTMENTS. THE
HEAVIEST...MOST INTENSE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
HOURLY RATES WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK
REASONABLE WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO THOSE ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE. NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN COMES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING N-NE ACROSS TEXAS MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO FAR SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED AS AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  10  30  40  20
FSM   63  81  64  82 /  10  50  70  30
MLC   63  78  63  81 /  10  50  50  20
BVO   58  81  60  81 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   58  78  62  78 /  10  30  70  30
BYV   60  80  63  79 /  10  20  90  30
MKO   60  79  62  81 /  10  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  30  30  60  20
F10   59  79  62  80 /  10  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  10  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250429
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH IFR OR
BELOW CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS
ENDED AND THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXITING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
WAVE...THE COOL...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST
IFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS START TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES REFLECT QPF AND POP ADJUSTMENTS. THE
HEAVIEST...MOST INTENSE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
HOURLY RATES WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK
REASONABLE WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO THOSE ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE. NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN COMES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING N-NE ACROSS TEXAS MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO FAR SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED AS AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  10  30  40  20
FSM   63  81  64  82 /  10  50  70  30
MLC   63  78  63  81 /  10  50  50  20
BVO   58  81  60  81 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   58  78  62  78 /  10  30  70  30
BYV   60  80  63  79 /  10  20  90  30
MKO   60  79  62  81 /  10  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  30  30  60  20
F10   59  79  62  80 /  10  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  10  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities