[top]
000
FXUS64 KOUN 180455
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KSPS WITHIN THE PAST
HALF HOUR. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND WILL
LOOK AT THE STATUS OF THIS WHEN IT THE TAFS ARE ISSUED. STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WILL
NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITY... BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTENT
STRATUS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE NE FA AROUND A MCV...BUT ANY OTHER MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FA ACROSS N TX. ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL INITIALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS MAY TRY
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR TX ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA SO
HAVE ISOLATED HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN BORDERS. A SFC HIGH
UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND NE OK
TOMORROW KEEPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVG. POPS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE TOMORROW THROUGH MID DAY WED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ROUNDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THINK HIGH CHC POPS
APPEAR REASONBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO PLACE.
SIGNFICANT POPS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER WED...BUT DID MENTION
SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHCS FOR THURS AM AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ALSO BE
TRUE ACROSS THE NW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ALLOWING A FEW
MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OK BY SAT AM.
OTHER THAN THESE LOW END POPS...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WARMER
TEMPS THURS-SAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM WEST TX THROUGH AT LEAST SW OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 50 50
HOBART OK 68 88 68 90 / 10 20 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 90 70 93 / 20 20 30 30
GAGE OK 64 85 65 87 / 20 20 40 40
PONCA CITY OK 67 86 68 84 / 10 20 40 40
DURANT OK 70 88 70 89 / 10 20 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180441
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ARKANSAS TAF SITES. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AT
KFYV AND KXNA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 14-15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. THERE IS GOOD SHORT-TERM MODEL
CONFIRMATION THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN TO AGREE
WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR THE ARKANSAS TAFS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES...WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY...AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS FOR KFYV/KXNA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMNANT MCV FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BENEATH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN MCS MAY
MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
MODERATE FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO RESTRENGTHEN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 67 86 68 87 / 10 10 20 30
FSM 69 87 68 88 / 20 10 20 30
MLC 68 86 68 87 / 10 10 20 30
BVO 65 85 65 86 / 0 10 20 30
FYV 63 83 62 85 / 20 10 20 30
BYV 64 84 63 85 / 20 10 20 30
MKO 67 86 67 87 / 10 10 20 30
MIO 65 85 65 86 / 10 10 20 30
F10 67 85 68 86 / 10 10 20 30
HHW 70 87 69 88 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180214
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. THERE IS GOOD SHORT-TERM MODEL
CONFIRMATION THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN TO AGREE
WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR THE ARKANSAS TAFS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES...WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY...AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS FOR KFYV/KXNA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMNANT MCV FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BENEATH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN MCS MAY
MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
MODERATE FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO RESTRENGTHEN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
000
FXUS64 KTSA 172327
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR THE ARKANSAS TAFS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES...WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY...AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS FOR KFYV/KXNA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMNANT MCV FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BENEATH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN MCS MAY
MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
MODERATE FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO RESTRENGTHEN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 67 86 68 87 / 10 10 20 30
FSM 69 87 68 88 / 50 10 20 30
MLC 68 86 68 87 / 30 10 20 30
BVO 65 85 65 86 / 10 10 20 30
FYV 63 83 62 85 / 50 10 20 30
BYV 64 84 63 85 / 50 10 20 30
MKO 67 86 67 87 / 20 10 20 30
MIO 65 85 65 86 / 20 10 20 30
F10 67 85 68 86 / 20 10 20 30
HHW 70 87 69 88 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 172044
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTENT
STRATUS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE NE FA AROUND A MCV...BUT ANY OTHER MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FA ACROSS N TX. ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL INITIALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS MAY TRY
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR TX ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA SO
HAVE ISOLATED HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN BORDERS. A SFC HIGH
UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND NE OK
TOMORROW KEEPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVG. POPS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE TOMORROW THROUGH MID DAY WED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ROUNDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THINK HIGH CHC POPS
APPEAR REASONBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO PLACE.
SIGNFICANT POPS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER WED...BUT DID MENTION
SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHCS FOR THURS AM AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ALSO BE
TRUE ACROSS THE NW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ALLOWING A FEW
MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OK BY SAT AM.
OTHER THAN THESE LOW END POPS...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WARMER
TEMPS THURS-SAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM WEST TX THROUGH AT LEAST SW OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 50 50
HOBART OK 68 88 68 90 / 20 20 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 90 70 93 / 40 20 30 30
GAGE OK 64 85 65 87 / 30 20 40 40
PONCA CITY OK 67 86 68 84 / 10 20 40 40
DURANT OK 70 88 70 89 / 20 20 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/03
000
FXUS64 KTSA 172023
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMNANT MCV FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BENEATH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN MCS MAY
MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
MODERATE FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO RESTRENGTHEN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 67 86 68 87 / 10 10 20 30
FSM 69 87 68 88 / 50 10 20 30
MLC 68 86 68 87 / 30 10 20 30
BVO 65 85 65 86 / 10 10 20 30
FYV 63 83 62 85 / 50 10 20 30
BYV 64 84 63 85 / 50 10 20 30
MKO 67 86 67 87 / 20 10 20 30
MIO 65 85 65 86 / 20 10 20 30
F10 67 85 68 86 / 20 10 20 30
HHW 70 87 69 88 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171727
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER 21-23Z. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED. TSRA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL
TERMINALS. DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE AT THIS
TIME. SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE CLOSE TO SPS LATE TONIGHT AROUND
06Z OR SO...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. LOW MVFR CIGS
WILL RETURN OVER MOST TERMINALS AROUND 06-08Z TOMORROW.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING AND A LAYER OF
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS OUT WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SQUALL
LINE THAT IMPACTED THE REGION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT S/SE
THROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...A SHIELD OF
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO PERSIST...
IMPACTING NEARLY ALL AIRFIELDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-44 AND SOUTH OF
I-40. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO NRN TX THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS NRN OK AND OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN
OK/NRN TX FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN/SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX...WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO MENTION FOR TAF SITES
ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN N TX.
OVERALL...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY VARY THROUGH THE DAY...BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR...TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IF A SITE IS IMPACTED
DIRECTLY BY A THUNDERSTORM.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY S/SEWRD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. ON ITS
PRESENT TIMING/TRACK...THE QLCS WILL REACH THE OKC METRO BETWEEN
0230 AND 0300 AM CDT. THE OVERALL LINE OF CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
VAST...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF AMARILLO OFF THE CAPROCK...EWD TO I-
40 ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER...NE THROUGH PONCA CITY...AND N INTO SRN
KS. MESONET OBS ALONG THE PATH HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT 45 TO 55 MPH
WINDS ALONG THE LINE...HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN ITS
OVERNIGHT HOURS...REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT
OF POWERLINES KNOCKED DOWN IN THE TOWN JET IN ALFALFA COUNTY AS THE
LINE MOVED THROUGH.
EXPECT THE QLCS TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT S/SE AT 35 TO 40 KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DECENT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE...WITH GOOD SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR 0F
20 TO 35 KTS AND MUCAPES 1900 TO 2800 J/KG. THE N/NERN PORTION OF
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL BE THE SECTION TO WATCH
AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFS WILL BE 20 TO 25 K...WITH THE BEST POCKET OF
MUCAPES RESIDING SWRN THROUGH CENTRAL OK.
AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAWN...IT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN OK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING A SFC TROUGH
ORIENTED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 83 70 85 / 40 40 40 40
HOBART OK 68 87 68 93 / 60 30 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 88 72 95 / 50 40 50 20
GAGE OK 64 84 64 90 / 40 30 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 66 84 66 85 / 40 30 20 30
DURANT OK 71 86 70 88 / 50 50 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/03/03
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171718
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR IN SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN AREAS. MOIST AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING OBSERVED. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS FOR THE TIME BEING. PROFILER
NETWORK ANALYZED AN MCV OVER SE KANSAS WHICH SHOWS UP IN REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF U.S. 412. OVERALL THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ELSEWHERE. HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS AND TO INCORPORATE
MORNING RADAR TRENDS...FORECAST HIGHS OKAY FOR NOW AS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN CLODS EXPECTED FOR THEM TO BE REACHED.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171631 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING AND A LAYER OF
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS OUT WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SQUALL
LINE THAT IMPACTED THE REGION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT S/SE
THROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...A SHIELD OF
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO PERSIST...
IMPACTING NEARLY ALL AIRFIELDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-44 AND SOUTH OF
I-40. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO NRN TX THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS NRN OK AND OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN
OK/NRN TX FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN/SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX...WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO MENTION FOR TAF SITES
ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN N TX.
OVERALL...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY VARY THROUGH THE DAY...BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR...TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IF A SITE IS IMPACTED
DIRECTLY BY A THUNDERSTORM.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY S/SEWRD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. ON ITS
PRESENT TIMING/TRACK...THE QLCS WILL REACH THE OKC METRO BETWEEN
0230 AND 0300 AM CDT. THE OVERALL LINE OF CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
VAST...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF AMARILLO OFF THE CAPROCK...EWD TO I-
40 ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER...NE THROUGH PONCA CITY...AND N INTO SRN
KS. MESONET OBS ALONG THE PATH HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT 45 TO 55 MPH
WINDS ALONG THE LINE...HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN ITS
OVERNIGHT HOURS...REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT
OF POWERLINES KNOCKED DOWN IN THE TOWN JET IN ALFALFA COUNTY AS THE
LINE MOVED THROUGH.
EXPECT THE QLCS TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT S/SE AT 35 TO 40 KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DECENT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE...WITH GOOD SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR 0F
20 TO 35 KTS AND MUCAPES 1900 TO 2800 J/KG. THE N/NERN PORTION OF
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL BE THE SECTION TO WATCH
AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFS WILL BE 20 TO 25 K...WITH THE BEST POCKET OF
MUCAPES RESIDING SWRN THROUGH CENTRAL OK.
AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAWN...IT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN OK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING A SFC TROUGH
ORIENTED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 69 83 70 / 20 40 40 40
HOBART OK 89 68 87 68 / 20 60 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 72 88 72 / 20 50 40 50
GAGE OK 83 64 84 64 / 20 40 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 82 66 84 66 / 20 40 30 20
DURANT OK 88 71 86 70 / 20 50 50 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/03
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171546
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS FOR THE TIME BEING. PROFILER
NETWORK ANALYZED AN MCV OVER SE KANSAS WHICH SHOWS UP IN REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF U.S. 412. OVERALL THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ELSEWHERE. HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS AND TO INCORPORATE
MORNING RADAR TRENDS...FORECAST HIGHS OKAY FOR NOW AS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN CLODS EXPECTED FOR THEM TO BE REACHED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 85 68 86 68 / 20 30 20 20
FSM 85 69 85 68 / 50 50 40 20
MLC 86 69 85 68 / 20 50 50 40
BVO 84 66 85 66 / 20 20 20 10
FYV 83 62 82 63 / 50 40 20 10
BYV 82 64 84 63 / 60 40 10 10
MKO 85 68 84 67 / 20 40 30 20
MIO 82 65 84 67 / 30 20 10 10
F10 86 68 84 68 / 20 40 40 30
HHW 88 72 85 70 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171156
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SQUALL
LINE THAT IMPACTED THE REGION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT S/SE
THROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...A SHIELD OF
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO PERSIST...
IMPACTING NEARLY ALL AIRFIELDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-44 AND SOUTH OF
I-40. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO NRN TX THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS NRN OK AND OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN
OK/NRN TX FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN/SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX...WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO MENTION FOR TAF SITES
ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN N TX.
OVERALL...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY VARY THROUGH THE DAY...BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR...TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IF A SITE IS IMPACTED
DIRECTLY BY A THUNDERSTORM.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY S/SEWRD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. ON ITS
PRESENT TIMING/TRACK...THE QLCS WILL REACH THE OKC METRO BETWEEN
0230 AND 0300 AM CDT. THE OVERALL LINE OF CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
VAST...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF AMARILLO OFF THE CAPROCK...EWD TO I-
40 ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER...NE THROUGH PONCA CITY...AND N INTO SRN
KS. MESONET OBS ALONG THE PATH HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT 45 TO 55 MPH
WINDS ALONG THE LINE...HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN ITS
OVERNIGHT HOURS...REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT
OF POWERLINES KNOCKED DOWN IN THE TOWN JET IN ALFALFA COUNTY AS THE
LINE MOVED THROUGH.
EXPECT THE QLCS TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT S/SE AT 35 TO 40 KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DECENT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE...WITH GOOD SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR 0F
20 TO 35 KTS AND MUCAPES 1900 TO 2800 J/KG. THE N/NERN PORTION OF
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL BE THE SECTION TO WATCH
AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFS WILL BE 20 TO 25 K...WITH THE BEST POCKET OF
MUCAPES RESIDING SWRN THROUGH CENTRAL OK.
AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAWN...IT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN OK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING A SFC TROUGH
ORIENTED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 69 83 70 / 60 40 40 40
HOBART OK 93 68 87 68 / 40 60 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 72 88 72 / 60 50 40 50
GAGE OK 87 64 84 64 / 30 40 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 85 66 84 66 / 50 40 30 20
DURANT OK 90 71 86 70 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04/04
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171123
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CREATE TEMPORARY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TO ALL AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AND KBVO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM LINE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONVECTIVE LINE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR. INSTABILITY
SLIGHTER HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PITTSBURG COUNTY...SOUTH TO
THE RED RIVER. STORMS COULD REMAIN STRONG THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS
AREA BEFORE MCS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. STILL COULD SEE A FEW AREAS WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FELL YESTERDAY.
MCS CLOUD SHIELD MAY DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA QUICK
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR STALLED BOUNDARY...LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 170748
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM LINE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONVECTIVE LINE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR. INSTABILITY
SLIGHTER HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PITTSBURG COUNTY...SOUTH TO
THE RED RIVER. STORMS COULD REMAIN STRONG THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS
AREA BEFORE MCS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. STILL COULD SEE A FEW AREAS WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FELL YESTERDAY.
MCS CLOUD SHIELD MAY DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA QUICK
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR STALLED BOUNDARY...LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 85 68 86 68 / 50 30 20 20
FSM 85 69 85 68 / 70 50 40 20
MLC 86 69 85 68 / 50 50 40 40
BVO 84 66 85 66 / 50 20 20 10
FYV 83 62 82 63 / 70 40 20 10
BYV 82 64 84 63 / 70 40 30 10
MKO 85 68 84 67 / 50 40 30 20
MIO 82 65 84 67 / 50 20 20 10
F10 86 68 84 68 / 50 40 40 30
HHW 88 72 85 70 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12
000
FXUS64 KOUN 170729
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
229 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY S/SEWRD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. ON ITS
PRESENT TIMING/TRACK...THE QLCS WILL REACH THE OKC METRO BETWEEN
0230 AND 0300 AM CDT. THE OVERALL LINE OF CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
VAST...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF AMARILLO OFF THE CAPROCK...EWD TO I-
40 ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER...NE THROUGH PONCA CITY...AND N INTO SRN
KS. MESONET OBS ALONG THE PATH HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT 45 TO 55 MPH
WINDS ALONG THE LINE...HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN ITS
OVERNIGHT HOURS...REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT
OF POWERLINES KNOCKED DOWN IN THE TOWN JET IN ALFALFA COUNTY AS THE
LINE MOVED THROUGH.
EXPECT THE QLCS TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT S/SE AT 35 TO 40 KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DECENT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE...WITH GOOD SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR 0F
20 TO 35 KTS AND MUCAPES 1900 TO 2800 J/KG. THE N/NERN PORTION OF
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL BE THE SECTION TO WATCH
AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFS WILL BE 20 TO 25 K...WITH THE BEST POCKET OF
MUCAPES RESIDING SWRN THROUGH CENTRAL OK.
AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAWN...IT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN OK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING A SFC TROUGH
ORIENTED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 69 83 70 / 60 40 40 40
HOBART OK 93 68 87 68 / 40 60 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 72 88 72 / 60 50 40 50
GAGE OK 87 64 84 64 / 30 40 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 85 66 84 66 / 50 40 30 20
DURANT OK 90 71 86 70 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04
000
FXUS64 KTSA 170501
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1201 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY TAF
SITES... SO WILL HAVE ONLY VCTS IN TAFS. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPO
GROUPS IN ALL TAFS FRAME THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
PRESENT...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ONE OR MORE STORM
COMPLEXES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO
LIKELY.
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE MORNING STORMS. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WINDS WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 162317
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY TAF
SITES... SO WILL HAVE ONLY VCTS IN TAFS. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPO
GROUPS IN ALL TAFS FRAME THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
PRESENT...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ONE OR MORE STORM
COMPLEXES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO
LIKELY.
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE MORNING STORMS. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WINDS WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162307
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
607 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING STORMS MAY AFFECT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE EITHER MOVING AWAY OR DISSIPATING.
WE THEN TURN TO EXPECTATION OF MORE STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH VFR DURING AFTN... OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT WIND
FORECAST... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT... AGAIN OUTSIDE OF
INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF I-40 BY
4 PM...THEN CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM. WICHITA FALLS MAY BE AFFECTED 9 TO 11 PM. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS.
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND UP
TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES IN 1-2 HOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD
ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING OF THE GROUND. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL
OCCUR DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR.
LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER LINE OR CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY
LESS DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THIS LINE MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS LINE MAY WEAKEN
AS IT GETS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FIRST LINE/CLUSTER
OF STORMS MAY STABILIZE THE AIR.
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE BEST HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THAT ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH STORMS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOT AND RAINFREE WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAT INDICES MAY BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL OF 105 DEGREES.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 86 70 84 / 70 60 30 30
HOBART OK 70 93 68 88 / 70 30 50 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 71 88 / 70 40 40 40
GAGE OK 65 88 65 84 / 80 30 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 66 85 66 85 / 80 60 20 20
DURANT OK 71 90 71 87 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 161947
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
PRESENT...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ONE OR MORE STORM
COMPLEXES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO
LIKELY.
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE MORNING STORMS. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WINDS WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 84 68 85 / 80 80 30 30
FSM 71 86 68 86 / 40 80 50 40
MLC 71 87 68 85 / 50 70 50 40
BVO 68 83 64 85 / 80 80 20 20
FYV 66 80 63 83 / 40 90 40 30
BYV 66 80 63 83 / 40 90 30 30
MKO 70 84 67 85 / 60 80 40 40
MIO 68 83 64 85 / 80 80 20 30
F10 71 85 68 84 / 70 80 40 40
HHW 72 89 70 88 / 40 60 50 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22
000
FXUS64 KOUN 161920
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF I-40 BY
4 PM...THEN CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM. WICHITA FALLS MAY BE AFFECTED 9 TO 11 PM. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS.
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND UP
TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES IN 1-2 HOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD
ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING OF THE GROUND. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL
OCCUR DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR.
LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER LINE OR CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY
LESS DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THIS LINE MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS LINE MAY WEAKEN
AS IT GETS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FIRST LINE/CLUSTER
OF STORMS MAY STABILIZE THE AIR.
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE BEST HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THAT ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH STORMS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOT AND RAINFREE WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAT INDICES MAY BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL OF 105 DEGREES.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 86 70 84 / 70 60 30 30
HOBART OK 70 93 68 88 / 70 30 50 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 71 88 / 70 40 40 40
GAGE OK 65 88 65 84 / 80 30 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 66 85 66 85 / 80 60 20 20
DURANT OK 71 90 71 87 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 161751
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME POPCORN AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
GIVE TIME OF WHEN AND IF ANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED.
VCTS MENTION WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE END OF THE DAY. THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL AFT 06Z...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 15Z
ON MONDAY MORNING. ONE OR MORE TSTORM COMPLEXES ARE FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES WITH THE BEST GUESS ON TIMING.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH BASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHERE SOME DECENT RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN
SOME SPOTS /1.69" AT FSM/. I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO THE WEST
OF THE AXIS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY BETWEEN NOW AND TONIGHTS EXPECTED MCS ACTIVITY AND AN
ADJUSTMENT TO AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE NECESSARY. THE ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A REMNANT MCV OVER KS FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE OR
RADAR OF THIS FEATURE ANY LONGER...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES
OVER NE OK AND/OR NW AR DOWNSTREAM.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS TODAY IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS
AT AREA TAF SITES. HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS APPROACH UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS AND PREVAILING AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH TAIL END OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING/LIMITED CAP...HOWEVER BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM LINE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH RAIN RATES EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY MONDAY MORNING WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO HINTING
AT ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH HOT/MUGGY
CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 84 68 85 / 80 80 30 30
FSM 71 86 68 86 / 40 80 50 40
MLC 71 87 68 85 / 50 70 50 40
BVO 68 83 64 85 / 80 80 20 20
FYV 66 80 63 83 / 40 90 40 30
BYV 66 80 63 83 / 40 90 30 30
MKO 70 84 67 85 / 60 80 40 40
MIO 68 83 64 85 / 80 80 20 30
F10 71 85 68 84 / 70 80 40 40
HHW 72 89 70 88 / 40 60 50 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS64 KOUN 161749
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
APPEARS THERE MAY BE TWO MAIN LINES/CLUSTERS OF TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
FIRST CLUSTER/LINE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA 20-23Z THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING KOKC
MAINLY 00-02Z AND KLAW/KSPS 01-04Z. THE SECOND CLUSTER/LINE
WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA 03-07Z...LIKELY AFFECTING KOKC AND KLAW 09-13Z.
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 09Z. DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE LATE THIS MORNING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK AND THE
PANHANDLE REGIONS HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CLUSTER
THAT HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE
LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATOP WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. ITS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...BUT CURRENT OBS SUGGESTS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT IS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL OK AND INTO
THE PANHANDLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS
MORNING AND ANALYSIS INDICATE MLCIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
MORE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.
SEVERAL SCENARIOS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT IT
APPEARS TWO COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING PERHAPS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND AS FAR SOUTH
AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND MAY
IMPACT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL FA AREA LATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS IT MOVES OUT OF KS. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS WESTERN/SW OK THROUGH 06Z TO HIGH CHC CONSIDERING
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST MOST SOLUTIONS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY WEST OF I35.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 70 86 68 / 40 60 60 30
HOBART OK 97 71 93 68 / 30 40 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 74 94 71 / 20 50 40 50
GAGE OK 93 68 87 65 / 60 60 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 89 70 85 66 / 40 80 60 10
DURANT OK 92 73 91 71 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
000
FXUS64 KOUN 161621 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE LATE THIS MORNING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK AND THE
PANHANDLE REGIONS HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CLUSTER
THAT HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE
LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATOP WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. ITS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...BUT CURRENT OBS SUGGESTS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT IS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL OK AND INTO
THE PANHANDLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS
MORNING AND ANALYSIS INDICATE MLCIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
MORE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.
SEVERAL SCENARIOS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT IT
APPEARS TWO COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING PERHAPS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND AS FAR SOUTH
AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND MAY
IMPACT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL FA AREA LATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS IT MOVES OUT OF KS. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS WESTERN/SW OK THROUGH 06Z TO HIGH CHC CONSIDERING
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST MOST SOLUTIONS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY WEST OF I35.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 70 86 68 / 40 60 60 30
HOBART OK 97 71 93 68 / 30 40 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 74 94 71 / 20 50 40 50
GAGE OK 93 68 87 65 / 60 60 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 89 70 85 66 / 40 80 60 10
DURANT OK 92 73 91 71 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 161450
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH BASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHERE SOME DECENT RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN
SOME SPOTS /1.69" AT FSM/. I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO THE WEST
OF THE AXIS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY BETWEEN NOW AND TONIGHTS EXPECTED MCS ACTIVITY AND AN
ADJUSTMENT TO AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE NECESSARY. THE ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A REMNANT MCV OVER KS FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE OR
RADAR OF THIS FEATURE ANY LONGER...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES
OVER NE OK AND/OR NW AR DOWNSTREAM.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS TODAY IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS
AT AREA TAF SITES. HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS APPROACH UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS AND PREVAILING AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH TAIL END OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING/LIMITED CAP...HOWEVER BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM LINE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH RAIN RATES EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY MONDAY MORNING WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO HINTING
AT ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH HOT/MUGGY
CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 90 70 86 67 / 40 80 70 20
FSM 90 74 85 68 / 40 40 80 30
MLC 90 73 86 68 / 40 60 70 40
BVO 90 68 84 65 / 40 80 60 20
FYV 87 68 80 64 / 40 40 80 20
BYV 86 68 80 65 / 40 40 90 20
MKO 89 71 84 67 / 40 60 80 20
MIO 90 69 83 66 / 40 70 80 20
F10 90 73 85 68 / 40 70 70 30
HHW 91 73 89 70 / 30 40 50 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
000
FXUS64 KOUN 161147
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
16/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION OF
REDEVELOPMENT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF AFTERNOON HOURS AT
TERMINALS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MCS MOVING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TOWARD AND AFTER 06Z WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND IFR/MVFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK STORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DECREASES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOCUS.
HOWEVER...GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AS MCS PROGRESSES OVER REGION...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS A CONCERN.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE RED RIVER
REGION WHERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER MCS MAY TRY TO AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORM
CHANCES COME TO AN END WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND CAPPING.
DRIER...HOTTER...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 70 86 68 / 40 60 60 30
HOBART OK 96 71 93 68 / 20 40 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 74 94 71 / 10 30 40 50
GAGE OK 93 68 87 65 / 60 60 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 90 70 85 66 / 40 80 60 10
DURANT OK 92 73 91 71 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/99/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 161116
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS TODAY IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS
AT AREA TAF SITES. HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS APPROACH UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS AND PREVAILING AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH TAIL END OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING/LIMITED CAP...HOWEVER BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM LINE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH RAIN RATES EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY MONDAY MORNING WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO HINTING
AT ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH HOT/MUGGY
CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KOUN 160925
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
425 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK STORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DECREASES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOCUS.
HOWEVER...GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AS MCS PROGRESSES OVER REGION...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS A CONCERN.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE RED RIVER
REGION WHERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER MCS MAY TRY TO AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORM
CHANCES COME TO AN END WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND CAPPING.
DRIER...HOTTER...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 70 86 68 / 20 60 60 30
HOBART OK 96 71 93 68 / 20 40 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 74 94 71 / 10 30 40 50
GAGE OK 93 68 87 65 / 30 60 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 90 70 85 66 / 30 80 60 10
DURANT OK 92 73 91 71 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 160803
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH TAIL END OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING/LIMITED CAP...HOWEVER BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM LINE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH RAIN RATES EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY MONDAY MORNING WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO HINTING
AT ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH HOT/MUGGY
CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 90 70 85 67 / 30 80 70 20
FSM 90 74 84 68 / 30 40 80 20
MLC 90 73 86 68 / 30 60 60 30
BVO 90 68 84 65 / 30 80 70 20
FYV 87 68 80 64 / 30 40 90 20
BYV 86 68 80 65 / 30 40 90 20
MKO 89 71 84 67 / 30 60 80 20
MIO 90 69 83 66 / 30 70 80 20
F10 90 73 85 68 / 30 70 70 20
HHW 91 73 89 70 / 30 40 50 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12
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