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000
FXUS64 KOUN 252036
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
336 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A sharp dryline will remain in place across the Texas panhandle
for the next few days. Strong moisture advection will continue
ahead of the dry line across our forecast area, with very
unstable air aloft. However, a strong capping inversion in place
could inhibit any TSRA for this evening. Guidance is persistent
with the capping in place, and latest aircraft soundings
indicating the capping strength is even stronger than guidance. As
a result, will keep TSRA pops very low across our west. However,
if anything would develop into the evening hours, isolated
supercell thunderstorms would be possible.

The more likely timing for thunderstorms developing just ahead of
the dryline would be Thursday afternoon. For now, latest NAM
guidance places a weak inversion cap across far northern Oklahoma,
leaving everything to the south un-capped and prime for convection
breaking out. WRF guidance suggesting convection beginning across
western Oklahoma early afternoon, and advance eastward to near
I-35 by late afternoon as we continue to heat. With mu CAPE values
near 4000 j/kg, large damaging hail up to baseballs and severe
wind gusts would be possible under these storm cells. By late
Thursday into Friday, an advancing upper low across the southern
high plains will shift into western Kansas, moving our storms into
southeast Oklahoma toward the early morning hours of Saturday. As
Saturday progresses, the dryline should push across our area and
start drying us out.

In the extended, sfc moisture will make a quick return across our
area beginning Sunday and into next week. A series of shortwave
troughs digging through will reintroduce low pops through day 7.
For now, both GFS and ECMWF keep us quite wet into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  84  66  81 /  20  40  40  30
Hobart OK         69  87  65  84 /  10  60  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  88  64  85 /  20  60  60  40
Gage OK           64  89  60  84 /   0  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     72  85  66  80 /  20  50  50  40
Durant OK         72  82  66  78 /  20  50  60  70

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/68




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251749
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...
All terminals are expected to remain under VFR conditions through
the afternoon. With a sharp dryline in place across the Texas
panhandle, and very moist and unstable air ahead of the dryline,
some TSRA could develop mainly across our southwest toward 00z.
However, a weak inversion cap may inhibit the TSRA development, so
there is some uncertainty. However, if any convection should
develop, they would be rather isolated but severe in intensity. As
a result, tempos are in the forecast for our terminals in
southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. If TSRA develop, ceilings as
well as visibilities could reduce to MVFR for a short period of
time, or even briefly to IFR conditions under the storms.
Otherwise, sfc winds will remain southerly through the entire
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding development of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms today, as a weak mid-level wave
passes over Oklahoma, where strong instability will be in place
again. It appears that convection, if it happens, will be much
more isolated than in the past couple of days. Ceilings will be
all over the place this morning. There will be areas of
essentially clear skies, alternating with MVFR and even marginally
IFR conditions. This should become SCT to BKN at 3500 feet or
higher by afternoon. Another layer of stratus with ceilings in
the 1500 to 2500 foot range will likely stream north into north
Texas and much of Oklahoma late tonight.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will be
quite a bit lower than it has been for a few days. Flow aloft will
be less conducive for widespread convection, and at this point,
it appears that any storms that might develop this afternoon or
early evening will be isolated. However, with plenty of
instability available, any storms that do develop will have a
good chance of becoming severe.

A couple of upper-level shortwave troughs will enter the southern
Plains Thursday and again on Friday. This will amplify the risk of
storms once again, and rain chances will again climb into the
chance category. Severe storms appear likely on Thursday, mainly
over western Oklahoma.

Shortwave ridging aloft will temporarily reduce the convection
late Friday night into Saturday, but it won`t be held down long.
More moisture will flow back into north Texas and Oklahoma on
Sunday, and rain chances dutifully climb again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  71  84  64 /  20  20  40  50
Hobart OK         91  70  87  65 /  20  10  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  90  72  87  64 /  20  10  60  60
Gage OK           93  63  89  60 /  10  10  30  20
Ponca City OK     89  72  86  66 /  20  20  40  40
Durant OK         85  71  81  67 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/68/68



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 251120
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect northeast OK and northwest
AR through the morning before gradually weakening and movingeast.
This should result in period of MVFR ceilings early in the
forecast with improvement to VFR by afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight, however
confidence remains low and no mention of thunder will be carried
in the forecast after this morning. MVFR ceilings likely to
return late in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection ongoing from far NW AR to SE OK is likely to weaken
and/or exit the forecast area early this morning. Additionally,
convection across SE KS continues to sage southward with continued
redevelopment as low level jet intercepts outflow boundary. This
process is expected to wane later this morning. Finally shortwave
ridging is expected for much of the day which is expected to limit
coverage of afternoon storm development. Storms which do develop
west nearer the dryline this afternoon may again congeal and track
somewhere across the forecast tonight. Despite the lack of defined
focus, the high instability environment will support a risk of
severe weather.

The more widespread storm coverage remains forecast for Thurs -
Friday as stronger forcing overspreads the Plains. Several rounds
of severe weather are likely to be ongoing through this period
some of which are likely to impact eastern OK and northwest AR.

The flow aloft does weaken behind the departing wave however an
unstable and weakly capped airmass will remain in place. This
along with a possible weak frontal boundary along with any subtle
forcing aloft necessitates the continuation of precip chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  73  85  69 /  40  30  40  60
FSM   86  72  83  68 /  40  40  50  60
MLC   84  73  82  69 /  20  30  30  60
BVO   87  70  84  68 /  80  30  30  60
FYV   81  68  81  66 /  40  30  40  60
BYV   83  69  82  64 /  50  30  30  60
MKO   85  72  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
MIO   84  71  84  68 /  80  30  40  60
F10   85  73  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
HHW   85  73  81  68 /  20  30  50  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250520
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 06Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeast
across parts of eastern Oklahoma overnight. It is possible that
additional storms will affect KPNC from 06Z to maybe 09Z or so.
Ceilings overnight will be mainly in the MVFR category, then rise
during the day Wednesday. A few thunderstorms may develop during
the afternoon or evening, but probabilities at any given site will
be quite low.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 820 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Cap has been too strong for much of the fa this evening with the
potential for severe storms decreasing. Storms in Kansas are
expected to develop into an MCS moving east. However, some storms
could build south into northern parts of the fa tonight. Northern
Oklahoma will be the area with the highest chances for any
showers/storms tonight. Some isolated/scattered elevated
showers/storms may be possible elsewhere as the llj increases but
many locations will likely remain dry overnight. With no or at
best a low chance of rain in parts of southwest OK and western
north Texas overnight and no heavy rain, the Flash Flood Watch
has been canceled.

Made adjustments to the POPS/Wx grids to show current thoughts
with highest POPS in northern/north central Oklahoma. Made some
minor tweaks to other grids to show current trends. All updates
out soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.

aviation...
overall...think conditions will worsen to mvfr at most sites
07-16z...then improve to vfr. not sure on the exact timing and
locations of mvfr conditions. ifr conditions may occur at some
sites 07-16z...though confidence is too low to mention.

chances for tsra seem to have decreased...though tsra remain
possible at most sites for the next 24 hours. only kept vcts near
kwwr...kpnc...and kgag through 05z where confidence of occurrence
is moderate.

mbs

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The primary focus of this discussion will be on strong to severe
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

Currently, 19z surface analysis reveals a weak outflow boundary from
the remnant convection that existed across southern Kansas earlier
this morning. This boundary has slowly pushed into northern
Oklahoma, becoming the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.
At the same time, a dryline continues to strengthen over the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of each of these boundaries, a
warm moist boundary layer remains in place; surface dew points are
well into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Additionally, low level
scattered to broken stratus remains in place across the region. The
24/19z sounding is currently coming in and still shows a modest
capping inversion over the region. However, it will continue to
weaken given moisture and heating taking place. In response to the
combination of the focus from the outflow and increased instability,
scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire in north central
Oklahoma. Expect this initial, early afternoon convection to persist
and remain focused in north central Oklahoma. Large damaging hail
will be the primary concern with this activity. However, given the
surface dew points in the low 70s, LCLs are obviously very low, and
although low level and deep layer shear isn`t overly impressive, a
strong updraft could easily modify the environment around it and
result in intense rotational updrafts.

Late afternoon into the evening, copious amounts of instability
continue to reside across the region, ahead of the dryline and
outflow boundary. MLCAPE values from the SPC mesoanalysis are well
over 3000 J/Kg, which is probably fairly accurate given the 70 F
surface dewpoints and a quick glance at the not quite finished
24/19z sounding. As mentioned above, deep layer shear through the
mid to late afternoon isn`t strong, but with the influence from the
approaching 500mb short wave feature across the Four Corners
(evident on WV), increasing mid-level winds will result in 0-6 Km
shear increasing across the region. Deep layer shear will range
anywhere from 35 to 45 kts ahead of the dryline, across western
Oklahoma. Model soundings from near the intersection of the dryline
and outflow boundary in northwestern Oklahoma reveal enhancement of
low level wind shear through the late afternoon hours, with values 20
to 30 kts, and 0-1 km SRH of 225 to 325 m2/s2. Storms that fire near
the intersection of these two boundaries and even farther south
along the dryline will easily produce strong rotating updrafts,
supportive of large damaging hail and the possibility of tornadoes.
The greatest concern will exist through from late afternoon through
sunset across northwestern Oklahoma. Across northern Oklahoma,
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue to fire along
the outflow into the evening. Although the tornado potential will be
lower for this activity, it`s still possible given any localized
enhancement of low level shear and low lcls, tornado development
remains possible.

Evening and overnight, near or after sunset, with decent 500mb
westerly flow, expect storms to move much more efficiently eastward
than the previous days. Storms will gradually form into one or more
clusters or potentially a line through the mid to late evening. This
remaining convection as it pushes eastward will likely reach central
Oklahoma by 9 to 10 PM, still capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a low chance of a few
tornadoes. After midnight, scattered thunderstorms will likely
linger across portions of central Oklahoma before finally pushing
eastward through the early morning hours.

Additionally, given the excessive rainfall across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas and possibility of additional
rainfall tonight, although light in many places, will continue to
run with a Flood Watch through 25/12Z.

Active pattern continues through the end of the week. Wednesday
could be a down day, but some recovery over western and southern
Oklahoma may result in a low chance of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which may pose a risk for hail to the size
of golf balls. Severe thunderstorm chances will be greatest on
Thursday as a strong dryline will push into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with ample shear and instability prevalent.
Strong rotating updrafts are expected, supportive of large damaging
hail, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.

Stay safe and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  84  65  79 /  10  40  40  50
Hobart OK         69  88  65  84 /  10  50  40  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  87  65  83 /  10  50  60  50
Gage OK           62  90  61  84 /   0  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     71  86  67  80 /  10  40  40  40
Durant OK         71  82  67  76 /  20  40  60  80

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/23/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250120 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
820 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Cap has been too strong for much of the fa this evening with the
potential for severe storms decreasing. Storms in Kansas are
expected to develop into an MCS moving east. However, some storms
could build south into northern parts of the fa tonight. Northern
Oklahoma will be the area with the highest chances for any
showers/storms tonight. Some isolated/scattered elevated
showers/storms may be possible elsewhere as the llj increases but
many locations will likely remain dry overnight. With no or at
best a low chance of rain in parts of southwest OK and western
north Texas overnight and no heavy rain, the Flash Flood Watch
has been canceled.

Made adjustments to the POPS/Wx grids to show current thoughts
with highest POPS in northern/north central Oklahoma. Made some
minor tweaks to other grids to show current trends. All updates
out soon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.

aviation...
overall...think conditions will worsen to mvfr at most sites
07-16z...then improve to vfr. not sure on the exact timing and
locations of mvfr conditions. ifr conditions may occur at some
sites 07-16z...though confidence is too low to mention.

chances for tsra seem to have decreased...though tsra remain
possible at most sites for the next 24 hours. only kept vcts near
kwwr...kpnc...and kgag through 05z where confidence of occurrence
is moderate.

mbs

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The primary focus of this discussion will be on strong to severe
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

Currently, 19z surface analysis reveals a weak outflow boundary from
the remnant convection that existed across southern Kansas earlier
this morning. This boundary has slowly pushed into northern
Oklahoma, becoming the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.
At the same time, a dryline continues to strengthen over the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of each of these boundaries, a
warm moist boundary layer remains in place; surface dew points are
well into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Additionally, low level
scattered to broken stratus remains in place across the region. The
24/19z sounding is currently coming in and still shows a modest
capping inversion over the region. However, it will continue to
weaken given moisture and heating taking place. In response to the
combination of the focus from the outflow and increased instability,
scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire in north central
Oklahoma. Expect this initial, early afternoon convection to persist
and remain focused in north central Oklahoma. Large damaging hail
will be the primary concern with this activity. However, given the
surface dew points in the low 70s, LCLs are obviously very low, and
although low level and deep layer shear isn`t overly impressive, a
strong updraft could easily modify the environment around it and
result in intense rotational updrafts.

Late afternoon into the evening, copious amounts of instability
continue to reside across the region, ahead of the dryline and
outflow boundary. MLCAPE values from the SPC mesoanalysis are well
over 3000 J/Kg, which is probably fairly accurate given the 70 F
surface dewpoints and a quick glance at the not quite finished
24/19z sounding. As mentioned above, deep layer shear through the
mid to late afternoon isn`t strong, but with the influence from the
approaching 500mb short wave feature across the Four Corners
(evident on WV), increasing mid-level winds will result in 0-6 Km
shear increasing across the region. Deep layer shear will range
anywhere from 35 to 45 kts ahead of the dryline, across western
Oklahoma. Model soundings from near the intersection of the dryline
and outflow boundary in northwestern Oklahoma reveal enhancement of
low level wind shear through the late afternoon hours, with values 20
to 30 kts, and 0-1 km SRH of 225 to 325 m2/s2. Storms that fire near
the intersection of these two boundaries and even farther south
along the dryline will easily produce strong rotating updrafts,
supportive of large damaging hail and the possibility of tornadoes.
The greatest concern will exist through from late afternoon through
sunset across northwestern Oklahoma. Across northern Oklahoma,
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue to fire along
the outflow into the evening. Although the tornado potential will be
lower for this activity, it`s still possible given any localized
enhancement of low level shear and low lcls, tornado development
remains possible.

Evening and overnight, near or after sunset, with decent 500mb
westerly flow, expect storms to move much more efficiently eastward
than the previous days. Storms will gradually form into one or more
clusters or potentially a line through the mid to late evening. This
remaining convection as it pushes eastward will likely reach central
Oklahoma by 9 to 10 PM, still capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a low chance of a few
tornadoes. After midnight, scattered thunderstorms will likely
linger across portions of central Oklahoma before finally pushing
eastward through the early morning hours.

Additionally, given the excessive rainfall across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas and possibility of additional
rainfall tonight, although light in many places, will continue to
run with a Flood Watch through 25/12Z.

Active pattern continues through the end of the week. Wednesday
could be a down day, but some recovery over western and southern
Oklahoma may result in a low chance of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which may pose a risk for hail to the size
of golf balls. Severe thunderstorm chances will be greatest on
Thursday as a strong dryline will push into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with ample shear and instability prevalent.
Strong rotating updrafts are expected, supportive of large damaging
hail, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.

Stay safe and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  86  71  84 /  20  20  10  40
Hobart OK         70  91  69  88 /  20  20  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  72  87 /  20  20  10  50
Gage OK           63  93  62  90 /  20   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     67  89  71  86 /  40  10  10  40
Durant OK         70  84  71  82 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 242302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

RVS is the most likely terminal to be affected by TSRA in the
first few hours of the valid TAF period, with other terminals
unlikely to be impacted directly. The ongoing activity will be
close enough to TUL, though, that will still carry a VCTS, with
no visibility or ceiling restriction. Additional scattered TSRA
may develop and affect the E OK terminals late tonight and into
early tomorrow as well. MVFR ceilings should affect all terminals
from late tonight through much of the day tomorrow, with a gradual
improvement expected during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the
vicinity of a decaying outflow boundary that extends from
northeast Oklahoma into north-central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms
have also developed across northwest Arkansas in response to an
MCV migrating across that area. These storms are forming in a
very unstable and weakly sheared environment. Could see damaging
winds to around 70 mph and large hail with these storms. The tornado
threat is low especially along the outflow boundary. This activity
is expected to diminish around sunset. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this afternoon and evening across western
Oklahoma and western Kansas. This activity could move into eastern
Oklahoma during the overnight hours and also pose a damaging wind
and hail threat. This activity would persist in the morning hours
Wednesday across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms decrease some on Wednesday with
no real focus for development. Since the airmass will not be changing
much could see some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
the unstable and weakly capped environment. The chances of thunderstorms
increase Thursday night into Friday as a more significant upper level
shortwave moves out of the southwest and across the plains. This could
occur in the two rounds of thunderstorms, one Thursday night and one
on Friday afternoon. Severe weather will be possible with each round
with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. However, the
threat for tornadoes will also be a concern especially on Friday.

Storm chances diminish over the Holiday weekend. However, they do increase
into the chance range on Monday as a shortwave in the southwesterly flow
aloft moves across the southern plains.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible across northwest
Arkansas through mid afternoon in association with mid level circulation.
Additional thunderstorms also possible in the BVO area by mid/late
afternoon near outflow boundary. Exact timing of convection overnight
still remains uncertain and will generally cover eastern Oklahoma
TAF sites with prob30 groups. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
outside any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A few breaks in the cloud cover this morning has allowed temps
to quickly warm into the upper 70s in many locations. High
temperatures have been raised for this afternoon by a few degrees
across most areas before clouds begin to fill back in.

MCV from overnight thunderstorm complex, currently over east-
central Oklahoma, will provide focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms along/east of feature this afternoon. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon as outflow boundary
pushes south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...12

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241708 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Besides some brief breaks in clouds this morning, most sites will
remain BKN to OVC MVFR through much, if not all, of the period.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon across
portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Fairly confident in
impacts to KGAG/KWWR/KPNC late this afternoon and evening to
ceilings and vis from thunderstorms. Storms will move eastward
through the evening, with enough confidence for TEMPOS at
KOKC/KOUN.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
A large cluster of thunderstorms over central/northern Kansas will
advance southeast today, possibly affecting KPNC during the
afternoon or early evening. Another area of scattered
strong/severe storms will develop late in the afternoon near the
western border of Oklahoma. These storms may affect all TAF sites
in the western half of Oklahoma between 2300Z and about 0500Z.
Timing of these storms is very uncertain, as are the specific
expected locations. Ceilings will be highly variable this morning,
and probably again overnight tonight, varying between 1000 feet
and unlimited. Significant visibility restrictions are unlikely
outside thunderstorms.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCV over Caddo County early this morning will continue to move
east, and associated convection just to its south is expected to
weaken as the morning progresses. Although showers/thunderstorms
could form at almost any time today, it appears that the greatest
chances will be associated once again with dryline convection this
afternoon along the western border of Oklahoma. Additional storms
may form in north-central Oklahoma if outflow from the Kansas MCS
can make it that far south this afternoon or evening.

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue throughout the
forecast period, with only a few brief breaks. It is difficult to
accurately time shortwave troughs in the mid/upper flow, so the
confidence in the timing of the rain/storm chances is not
particularly high.

One of the stronger waves appears to pass over Oklahoma on
Thursday, although some models suggest that a second, equally
strong wave, will arrive on Friday. Depending on what actually
happens, it appears that Thursday and Friday could be days of
rather widespread storminess.

That should be followed by a relatively quiet Friday evening and
Saturday, before storm chances resume, and continue through early
next week.

We have elected to retain the Flood Watch unaltered because of the
risk of locally heavy rainfall with any storms that form over the
next day or so. The watch may be able to be canceled early if
storms fail to produce excessive rainfall this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  87  71  84 /  50  20  10  50
Hobart OK         69  91  69  87 /  40  10  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  72  86 /  20  20  10  60
Gage OK           63  94  62  89 /  40  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     69  89  71  86 /  60  20  10  40
Durant OK         70  84  71  81 /  30  10  20  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241604
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1104 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few breaks in the cloud cover this morning has allowed temps
to quickly warm into the upper 70s in many locations. High
temperatures have been raised for this afternoon by a few degrees
across most areas before clouds begin to fill back in.

MCV from overnight thunderstorm complex, currently over east-
central Oklahoma, will provide focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms along/east of feature this afternoon. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon as outflow boundary
pushes south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241128
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A large cluster of thunderstorms over central/northern Kansas will
advance southeast today, possibly affecting KPNC during the
afternoon or early evening. Another area of scattered
strong/severe storms will develop late in the afternoon near the
western border of Oklahoma. These storms may affect all TAF sites
in the western half of Oklahoma between 2300Z and about 0500Z.
Timing of these storms is very uncertain, as are the specific
expected locations. Ceilings will be highly variable this morning,
and probably again overnight tonight, varying between 1000 feet
and unlimited. Significant visibility restrictions are unlikely
outside thunderstorms.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCV over Caddo County early this morning will continue to move
east, and associated convection just to its south is expected to
weaken as the morning progresses. Although showers/thunderstorms
could form at almost any time today, it appears that the greatest
chances will be associated once again with dryline convection this
afternoon along the western border of Oklahoma. Additional storms
may form in north-central Oklahoma if outflow from the Kansas MCS
can make it that far south this afternoon or evening.

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue throughout the
forecast period, with only a few brief breaks. It is difficult to
accurately time shortwave troughs in the mid/upper flow, so the
confidence in the timing of the rain/storm chances is not
particularly high.

One of the stronger waves appears to pass over Oklahoma on
Thursday, although some models suggest that a second, equally
strong wave, will arrive on Friday. Depending on what actually
happens, it appears that Thursday and Friday could be days of
rather widespread storminess.

That should be followed by a relatively quiet Friday evening and
Saturday, before storm chances resume, and continue through early
next week.

We have elected to retain the Flood Watch unaltered because of the
risk of locally heavy rainfall with any storms that form over the
next day or so. The watch may be able to be canceled early if
storms fail to produce excessive rainfall this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  68  87  71 /  30  50  20  10
Hobart OK         85  69  91  69 /  30  40  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  87  72  90  72 /  20  20  20  10
Gage OK           89  63  94  62 /  40  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     81  69  89  71 /  60  60  20  10
Durant OK         82  70  84  71 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
606 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be increasing later this
morning into the afternoon with another increase in chances late
tonight. In general, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, except with more significant thunderstorms which could
lead to brief IFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00z RAOBs across the Southern Plains sampled seasonably high
values of low level moisture while also recording a broad fetch of
steep mid level lapse rates. The result being a broad zone of
strong instability which, when weakly capped amidst subtle
forcing, often causes issues within numerical models. This pattern
has been, and will continue to be, in play through the forecast
period.

Focus for today is ongoing small MCS ongoing over south central OK
which may spread into SE OK later this morning. Also extensive
convection has been maintained across NW KS with veered 50kt low
level jet fueling continued generation along the southwestern
flank. This complex is the larger short term concern as numerous
CAM solutions either sustain the ongoing convection southeastward
or push a remnant outflow boundary into NE OK today. Either
scenario would provide a focus for additional storms to develop in
the aforementioned weakly capped and unstable airmass and pose a
severe weather risk. This scenario contains plenty of uncertainty
but enough data support the potential to raise precip chances
today.

Storm will also form west of the area on the dryline this
afternoon and attempt to spread eastward into E OK this evening
and/or overnight. How far east and to what intensity level largely
depends on how convection evolves during the day.

Wednesday continues to appear as the day with the least amount of
storm coverage. A stronger wave is still on track to influx the
Southern Plains Thursday through Friday. Numerous rounds of severe
storms look likely across the Plains beginning Thurs afternoon
and likely continuing Thursday night into Friday. Thunderstorm
chances will be maintained through next weekend as the pattern
remains unsettled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  71  87  72 /  60  40  20  20
FSM   82  70  85  72 /  60  30  20  20
MLC   80  72  83  73 /  60  50  20  20
BVO   80  68  87  69 /  60  40  20  20
FYV   77  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   78  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
MKO   80  69  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
MIO   78  69  84  69 /  60  40  20  20
F10   81  71  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
HHW   81  71  84  71 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14




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