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000
FXUS64 KOUN 020905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SE OF THE OKC
METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 35 KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  30  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  10  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03



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000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020522
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SE OK BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
MENTION RIGHT NOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  50  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  20  60  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  30
GAGE OK           91  67  89  68 /  40  50  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  89  69 /  50  60  40  40
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 020522
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SE OK BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
MENTION RIGHT NOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  50  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  20  60  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  30
GAGE OK           91  67  89  68 /  40  50  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  89  69 /  50  60  40  40
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012351
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   75  91  69  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ASIDE FROM A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A STRAY SHRA/TSRA AT
KGAG/KWWR...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC BY EARLY THURS. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. FROM 18Z ONWARD TOMORROW...SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST ANYWHERE FROM I-40 NORTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WILL
INTRODUCE PROB30 FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK TERMINALS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WICHITA KANSAS TO
BUFFALO OKLAHOMA AND PERRYTON TEXAS AT 4 PM. DRIER AIR WAS
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...WHILE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS. FROM TOMORROW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
RAIN/STORMS WERE A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE CLOUDS...WILL
REDUCE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ENDING OUR NEAR-HEAT-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  92  71  88 /  20  40  70  50
HOBART OK         75  93  71  93 /  10  20  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  95  75  93 /  10  10  40  30
GAGE OK           71  91  67  89 /  20  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  94  69  89 /  20  50  60  40
DURANT OK         73  92  73  87 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012109
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WICHITA KANSAS TO
BUFFALO OKLAHOMA AND PERRYTON TEXAS AT 4 PM. DRIER AIR WAS
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...WHILE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS. FROM TOMORROW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
RAIN/STORMS WERE A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE CLOUDS...WILL
REDUCE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ENDING OUR NEAR-HEAT-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  92  71  88 /  20  40  70  50
HOBART OK         75  93  71  93 /  10  20  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  95  75  93 /  10  10  40  30
GAGE OK           71  91  67  89 /  20  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  94  69  89 /  20  50  60  40
DURANT OK         73  92  73  87 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 012109
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WICHITA KANSAS TO
BUFFALO OKLAHOMA AND PERRYTON TEXAS AT 4 PM. DRIER AIR WAS
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...WHILE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS. FROM TOMORROW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
RAIN/STORMS WERE A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE CLOUDS...WILL
REDUCE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ENDING OUR NEAR-HEAT-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  92  71  88 /  20  40  70  50
HOBART OK         75  93  71  93 /  10  20  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  95  75  93 /  10  10  40  30
GAGE OK           71  91  67  89 /  20  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  94  69  89 /  20  50  60  40
DURANT OK         73  92  73  87 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT
A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN N OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST TSRA MAY DRIFT S INTO CENTRAL OK
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DYING OUT. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY OCCUR BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN N OK. IN NO CASE IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. A WIND SHIFT WILL ENTER N
OK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC WILL
BE TO CAUSE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

CMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         97  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     99  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT
A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN N OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST TSRA MAY DRIFT S INTO CENTRAL OK
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DYING OUT. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY OCCUR BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN N OK. IN NO CASE IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. A WIND SHIFT WILL ENTER N
OK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC WILL
BE TO CAUSE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

CMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         97  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     99  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION
AT THE NE OK/NW AR TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES AT THIS TIME REFLECT SMALL POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS
THE NE OK AND NW AR ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
TEMPS ALONE AT THIS TIME...BUT A LATER UPDATE ADDRESSING TEMPS MAY
BE REQUIRED SHOULD CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION
AT THE NE OK/NW AR TAF SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES AT THIS TIME REFLECT SMALL POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS
THE NE OK AND NW AR ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
TEMPS ALONE AT THIS TIME...BUT A LATER UPDATE ADDRESSING TEMPS MAY
BE REQUIRED SHOULD CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SSW TO AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS
EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SSW TO AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS
EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SSW TO AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS
EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SSW TO AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS
EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SSW TO AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS
EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SSW TO AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS
EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-103 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS OVER
MISSOURI. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
TO SEVERE MCS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING THROUGH MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES PERSIST.

SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT INITIALLY RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010757
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-103 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS OVER
MISSOURI. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
TO SEVERE MCS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING THROUGH MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES PERSIST.

SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT INITIALLY RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77  93  71 /  10  20  60  60
FSM   93  75  93  73 /  10  20  40  60
MLC   92  75  92  74 /  10  20  30  60
BVO   95  75  91  67 /  10  20  60  50
FYV   88  73  87  68 /  20  30  60  60
BYV   89  73  86  69 /  30  30  60  60
MKO   90  73  90  71 /  10  20  50  60
MIO   93  75  92  68 /  20  30  60  50
F10   91  75  89  71 /  10  20  40  60
HHW   92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010757
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-103 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS OVER
MISSOURI. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
TO SEVERE MCS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING THROUGH MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES PERSIST.

SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT INITIALLY RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77  93  71 /  10  20  60  60
FSM   93  75  93  73 /  10  20  40  60
MLC   92  75  92  74 /  10  20  30  60
BVO   95  75  91  67 /  10  20  60  50
FYV   88  73  87  68 /  20  30  60  60
BYV   89  73  86  69 /  30  30  60  60
MKO   90  73  90  71 /  10  20  50  60
MIO   93  75  92  68 /  20  30  60  50
F10   91  75  89  71 /  10  20  40  60
HHW   92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010757
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-103 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS OVER
MISSOURI. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
TO SEVERE MCS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING THROUGH MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES PERSIST.

SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT INITIALLY RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77  93  71 /  10  20  60  60
FSM   93  75  93  73 /  10  20  40  60
MLC   92  75  92  74 /  10  20  30  60
BVO   95  75  91  67 /  10  20  60  50
FYV   88  73  87  68 /  20  30  60  60
BYV   89  73  86  69 /  30  30  60  60
MKO   90  73  90  71 /  10  20  50  60
MIO   93  75  92  68 /  20  30  60  50
F10   91  75  89  71 /  10  20  40  60
HHW   92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010757
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-103 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS OVER
MISSOURI. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
TO SEVERE MCS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING THROUGH MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES PERSIST.

SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT INITIALLY RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77  93  71 /  10  20  60  60
FSM   93  75  93  73 /  10  20  40  60
MLC   92  75  92  74 /  10  20  30  60
BVO   95  75  91  67 /  10  20  60  50
FYV   88  73  87  68 /  20  30  60  60
BYV   89  73  86  69 /  30  30  60  60
MKO   90  73  90  71 /  10  20  50  60
MIO   93  75  92  68 /  20  30  60  50
F10   91  75  89  71 /  10  20  40  60
HHW   92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010458
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM 13Z TO 15Z TODAY...BECOMING GUSTY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE SOUTH FROM 00Z
THROUGH 02Z THURS. STRAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AROUND KGAG/KWWR...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010458
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM 13Z TO 15Z TODAY...BECOMING GUSTY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE SOUTH FROM 00Z
THROUGH 02Z THURS. STRAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AROUND KGAG/KWWR...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010455
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...WILL CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR XNA/FYV/ROG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

P&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010455
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...WILL CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR XNA/FYV/ROG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

P&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010455
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...WILL CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR XNA/FYV/ROG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

P&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010455
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...WILL CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR XNA/FYV/ROG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

P&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 010247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH
WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY
QUIET AND VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. A
DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR...BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UT/CO.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302318
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WED...THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISO
TSRA KGAG/KWWR/KPNC FROM 18Z TO 00Z WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302318
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WED...THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISO
TSRA KGAG/KWWR/KPNC FROM 18Z TO 00Z WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302318
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WED...THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISO
TSRA KGAG/KWWR/KPNC FROM 18Z TO 00Z WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302318
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WED...THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISO
TSRA KGAG/KWWR/KPNC FROM 18Z TO 00Z WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302318
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WED...THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISO
TSRA KGAG/KWWR/KPNC FROM 18Z TO 00Z WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302318
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WED...THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISO
TSRA KGAG/KWWR/KPNC FROM 18Z TO 00Z WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301945
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301941
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301941
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
90S AND UPPER 80S DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDER THE SHORTWAVE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TRIES TO BUILD IN A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A
SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  75  92 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         73  98  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           73  99  71  91 /   0  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         73  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AS LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE TONIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES
AT THIS TIME REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AS LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE TONIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES
AT THIS TIME REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AS LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE TONIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES
AT THIS TIME REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AS LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE TONIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES
AT THIS TIME REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301552
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADVERTISED MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/ PARTS OF WC AR. MCS POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS ACROSS NW AR TONIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THAT AREA.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT WSW WINDS
THIS MORNING AND SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW CIRRUS WILL
PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE HOT AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HOTTEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD REACH 30 C. MAX HEAT INDICES
WED WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HEAT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK
RESPECTIVELY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN OK THU AM...AS A MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK AS THIS OCCURS. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THURS NIGHT...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY OVER OK.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT THURS.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AND THE 4TH AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND OK REMAINS UNDER THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE OVERNIGHT FRI THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPACTS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW RIGHT NOW WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING...LOCATION...AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND GREATLY ON EACH
PREVIOUS DAY`S MOIST CONVECTION/MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  96  76 /   0   0   0  30
HOBART OK         98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  76  97  78 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           97  75 100  73 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     98  79  97  76 /  10   0  30  20
DURANT OK         95  74  93  75 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT WSW WINDS
THIS MORNING AND SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW CIRRUS WILL
PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE HOT AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HOTTEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD REACH 30 C. MAX HEAT INDICES
WED WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HEAT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK
RESPECTIVELY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN OK THU AM...AS A MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK AS THIS OCCURS. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THURS NIGHT...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY OVER OK.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT THURS.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AND THE 4TH AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND OK REMAINS UNDER THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE OVERNIGHT FRI THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPACTS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW RIGHT NOW WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING...LOCATION...AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND GREATLY ON EACH
PREVIOUS DAY`S MOIST CONVECTION/MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  96  76 /   0   0   0  30
HOBART OK         98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  76  97  78 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           97  75 100  73 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     98  79  97  76 /  10   0  30  20
DURANT OK         95  74  93  75 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KFSM OR KMLC
TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... LOW COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY
PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
..WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES
RUNNING IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO
CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AGAIN WEDNESDAY OR WED
NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO REMAIN
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS INCLUDING THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS. HOWEVER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS UPPER HIGH
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KFSM OR KMLC
TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... LOW COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY
PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
..WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES
RUNNING IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO
CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AGAIN WEDNESDAY OR WED
NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO REMAIN
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS INCLUDING THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS. HOWEVER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS UPPER HIGH
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KFSM OR KMLC
TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... LOW COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY
PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
..WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES
RUNNING IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO
CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AGAIN WEDNESDAY OR WED
NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO REMAIN
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS INCLUDING THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS. HOWEVER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS UPPER HIGH
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KFSM OR KMLC
TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... LOW COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY
PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
..WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES
RUNNING IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO
CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AGAIN WEDNESDAY OR WED
NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO REMAIN
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS INCLUDING THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS. HOWEVER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS UPPER HIGH
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



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